2010年吉林省一次暴雨过程分析
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摘要
东北冷涡是影响吉林省的主要天气系统之一,夏季常造成吉林省的雷阵雨天气,有时甚至会出现区域性的暴雨、大暴雨天气。因此对东北冷涡暴雨的特殊个例进行总结分析,有利于增进我们对东北冷涡天气的认识,提高东北冷涡暴雨预报水平,从而及时为各行业用户提供预报服务,减少生命财产的损失,以期达到防灾减灾的目的。
本文主要从吉林省2010年7月的一次罕见的冷涡暴雨过程出发,利用FY2C的红外云图、可见光云图、水汽图像以及NCEP再分析资料,分别分析了此次暴雨过程的大尺度环流背景、中尺度特征、水汽来源及输送情况、动力条件、不稳定条件以及卫星云图发生发展的演变特征等。
通过分析发现：(1)2010年7月27-29日吉林省出现的大范围暴雨天气是在东北冷涡发展成熟阶段产生的,500hPa冷涡形势建立与稳定维持为暴雨发生发展提供了有利的大尺度环流背景；鄂海阻高的稳定维持导致了冷涡的移动缓慢,使得冷暖空气长时间在吉林省上空交绥。(2)850hPa与冷涡相伴的强冷空气南侵对暴雨形成起触发作用。(3)地面冷、暖锋缓慢移动使冷暖空气长时间在吉林省交汇并维持,是此次罕见暴雨发生的重要原因；在地面冷锋稳定维持及暖锋北进南退过程中,强降水落区随之南北移动。(4)分辨率为1.25km的高分辨率可见光云图,可以分析出对流单体及对流云系的许多细节特征。其中上冲云顶和暗影等特征可以帮助我们及早识别对流单体的发展趋势和移动方向,有助于强天气的监测和预警。(5)水汽云图的暗区与下沉运动相联系,同时与高空的干冷气流相对应,而亮区反映高层的水汽分布和对流层中层的大气运动情况,暴雨出现在高空急流左分支且与北部干冷空气相交汇的区域。(6)强降水前期水汽源地在南海,对流层中低层主要为南北向水汽输送,后期有内陆东西向水汽补充,降水落区虽与对流层中低层整层水汽辐合对应关系较好,但两者并不非完全的线性关系。(7)比湿在降水前有一个明显增大的过程,因此在预报的过程中可以通过分析比湿的变化,判断降水的开始时间。利用850hPa以下比湿大于10g/kg维持时间预报降水持续时间。(8)850hPa上的正垂直螺旋度中心的分布情况与吉林省上空的强对流云团的发生发展及移动存在一定的相关关系,强降水的落区与正垂直螺旋度所在位置一致。(9)850hPa湿位涡负值区的出现和加强对强降水有一定的指示意义,暴雨的落区位于MPV的正负过渡带内,且偏向于正值区。MPV的这种分布特征对暴雨的落区预报有一定的指示意义。
Northeast cold vortex is one of the major weather systems that impact Jilin Province, which often causes thundershowers in summer of Jilin Province, sometimes there is a regional storm or heavy rain. Therefore, analyses of typical case of heavy rain caused by the Northeast Cold Vortex could help us understand the northeast cold vortex weather and improve the level of forecasting storm. By this way, we could provide the forecasting service for the industry in time, reduce the loss of life and property, and achieve the purpose of disaster prevention and mitigation.
Based on the synoptic diagnostic method, and using the routine observational data, the satellite cloud image data and NCEP reanalysis data, we analyzed the wide range heavy rainfall process in Jilin province, which occurred from July27to29,2010, including the large-scale circulation, mesoscale features, moisture sources and transport conditions, power conditions, unstable conditions and the characteristics of evolution and development of satellite images.
Nine results as filows:
(1) The wide range heavy rainfall process in Jilin province appeared in the mature stage of development of the northeast cold vortex during July27to29,2010. The establishment and development of the cold vortex situation at500hPa prodided a favorable large-scale circulation for the torrential rain. The stability of Okhotsk blocking high made the cold vortex move slowly, so warm and cold air intersected for very long time in Jilin Province;
(2) The southward invasion of the strong cold air at850hPa, which was accompanied with a cold vortex, triggered the torrential rain;
(3) The intersection and long stay of the warm and cold front in Jilin Province was the main reason for the torrential rain. The strong precipitation area moved along with the warm front on the ground;
(4) The visible light cloud image with1.25km resolution could help us analyze the convective cells and many details of the characteristics of convective clouds. The features of overshooting top and dark shadow could help us identify the convective cell developing trend and direction of movement, and contributed to the monitoring and early warning of severe weather;
(5) Dark areas of the vapor cloud image were associated with sinking motion, and it corresponded to the dry and cold air at upper altitude. The bright areas reflected distribution of water vapor at the upper level and the atmospheric movement of the middle troposphere. The rainstorm appeared in the region wheret left branch of the jet and the dry cold air on northern intersected;
(6) Before rainfall water vapor came from the South China Sea and direction of moisture transport was mainly latitudinal in lower troposphere. During later time there was supplementary moisture from inland. Precipitation intensity altered as the value of moisture convergence changed, but the relation between them was nonlinear;
(7) There was a significant increase of specific humidity before precipitation. We analyze the changes of the specific humidity to determine the start time of precipitation in the forecasting process. The maintaining time, during which the specific humidity below850hPa was larger than10g/kg, could be used to predict the duration of prediction;
(8) There was a certain relationship between the distribution of positive vertical helicity center at850hPa and the strong convective clouds development and movement over Jilin Province. The area of heavy precipitation was located at positive vertical helicity center;
(9) The emergence and reinforcement of negative moist potential vorticity(MPV) at850hPa, which may give a clue to the heavy precipitation. The area of heavy rain was in the positive and negative transition zone of the MPV, and was more close to positive zone.
本文主要从吉林省2010年7月的一次罕见的冷涡暴雨过程出发,利用FY2C的红外云图、可见光云图、水汽图像以及NCEP再分析资料,分别分析了此次暴雨过程的大尺度环流背景、中尺度特征、水汽来源及输送情况、动力条件、不稳定条件以及卫星云图发生发展的演变特征等。
通过分析发现：(1)2010年7月27-29日吉林省出现的大范围暴雨天气是在东北冷涡发展成熟阶段产生的,500hPa冷涡形势建立与稳定维持为暴雨发生发展提供了有利的大尺度环流背景；鄂海阻高的稳定维持导致了冷涡的移动缓慢,使得冷暖空气长时间在吉林省上空交绥。(2)850hPa与冷涡相伴的强冷空气南侵对暴雨形成起触发作用。(3)地面冷、暖锋缓慢移动使冷暖空气长时间在吉林省交汇并维持,是此次罕见暴雨发生的重要原因；在地面冷锋稳定维持及暖锋北进南退过程中,强降水落区随之南北移动。(4)分辨率为1.25km的高分辨率可见光云图,可以分析出对流单体及对流云系的许多细节特征。其中上冲云顶和暗影等特征可以帮助我们及早识别对流单体的发展趋势和移动方向,有助于强天气的监测和预警。(5)水汽云图的暗区与下沉运动相联系,同时与高空的干冷气流相对应,而亮区反映高层的水汽分布和对流层中层的大气运动情况,暴雨出现在高空急流左分支且与北部干冷空气相交汇的区域。(6)强降水前期水汽源地在南海,对流层中低层主要为南北向水汽输送,后期有内陆东西向水汽补充,降水落区虽与对流层中低层整层水汽辐合对应关系较好,但两者并不非完全的线性关系。(7)比湿在降水前有一个明显增大的过程,因此在预报的过程中可以通过分析比湿的变化,判断降水的开始时间。利用850hPa以下比湿大于10g/kg维持时间预报降水持续时间。(8)850hPa上的正垂直螺旋度中心的分布情况与吉林省上空的强对流云团的发生发展及移动存在一定的相关关系,强降水的落区与正垂直螺旋度所在位置一致。(9)850hPa湿位涡负值区的出现和加强对强降水有一定的指示意义,暴雨的落区位于MPV的正负过渡带内,且偏向于正值区。MPV的这种分布特征对暴雨的落区预报有一定的指示意义。
Northeast cold vortex is one of the major weather systems that impact Jilin Province, which often causes thundershowers in summer of Jilin Province, sometimes there is a regional storm or heavy rain. Therefore, analyses of typical case of heavy rain caused by the Northeast Cold Vortex could help us understand the northeast cold vortex weather and improve the level of forecasting storm. By this way, we could provide the forecasting service for the industry in time, reduce the loss of life and property, and achieve the purpose of disaster prevention and mitigation.
Based on the synoptic diagnostic method, and using the routine observational data, the satellite cloud image data and NCEP reanalysis data, we analyzed the wide range heavy rainfall process in Jilin province, which occurred from July27to29,2010, including the large-scale circulation, mesoscale features, moisture sources and transport conditions, power conditions, unstable conditions and the characteristics of evolution and development of satellite images.
Nine results as filows:
(1) The wide range heavy rainfall process in Jilin province appeared in the mature stage of development of the northeast cold vortex during July27to29,2010. The establishment and development of the cold vortex situation at500hPa prodided a favorable large-scale circulation for the torrential rain. The stability of Okhotsk blocking high made the cold vortex move slowly, so warm and cold air intersected for very long time in Jilin Province;
(2) The southward invasion of the strong cold air at850hPa, which was accompanied with a cold vortex, triggered the torrential rain;
(3) The intersection and long stay of the warm and cold front in Jilin Province was the main reason for the torrential rain. The strong precipitation area moved along with the warm front on the ground;
(4) The visible light cloud image with1.25km resolution could help us analyze the convective cells and many details of the characteristics of convective clouds. The features of overshooting top and dark shadow could help us identify the convective cell developing trend and direction of movement, and contributed to the monitoring and early warning of severe weather;
(5) Dark areas of the vapor cloud image were associated with sinking motion, and it corresponded to the dry and cold air at upper altitude. The bright areas reflected distribution of water vapor at the upper level and the atmospheric movement of the middle troposphere. The rainstorm appeared in the region wheret left branch of the jet and the dry cold air on northern intersected;
(6) Before rainfall water vapor came from the South China Sea and direction of moisture transport was mainly latitudinal in lower troposphere. During later time there was supplementary moisture from inland. Precipitation intensity altered as the value of moisture convergence changed, but the relation between them was nonlinear;
(7) There was a significant increase of specific humidity before precipitation. We analyze the changes of the specific humidity to determine the start time of precipitation in the forecasting process. The maintaining time, during which the specific humidity below850hPa was larger than10g/kg, could be used to predict the duration of prediction;
(8) There was a certain relationship between the distribution of positive vertical helicity center at850hPa and the strong convective clouds development and movement over Jilin Province. The area of heavy precipitation was located at positive vertical helicity center;
(9) The emergence and reinforcement of negative moist potential vorticity(MPV) at850hPa, which may give a clue to the heavy precipitation. The area of heavy rain was in the positive and negative transition zone of the MPV, and was more close to positive zone.
引文
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