人民币汇率变动对制造业就业和工资的影响研究
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摘要
自改革开放以来,中国努力加快工业化进程,迅速提高制造业比重,制造业获得了飞速发展,制造业吸纳就业的能力是国民经济其它行业所不能比拟的。对于美国而言,尽管制造业在其国内生产总值中所占比重逐步下降,但其依然把制造业作为经济增长的主要动力和国家竞争力的重要基础。但受到2008年全球金融危机的影响,中国制造业出口额急剧下降,就业岗位大量流失；美国的实体制造业亦是持续萎靡。虽然中国制造业的生产率提高和规模扩大带动了国内就业增长,但对人民币也造成了一定的升值压力,同时受其他因素的影响,自2005年人民币汇率制度改革至今,人民币的累计升值幅度近30%。面对这一经济现实,美国政府却依然通过外交渠道向人民币汇率屡屡施压,认为中国利用人民币汇率大幅低估来获取贸易竞争优势,导致美国纺织业等传统制造业萎缩,大量制造业就业岗位丧失,只有迫使人民币持续升值才能够解决这一问题。因此,在当前人民币面临持续升值压力以及美国实施“重振制造业”的国内外背景下,研究人民币汇率变动对中美制造业就业和工资的影响,具有重要的现实意义。
本文意在基于动态一般均衡范式对人民币汇率变动对中美制造业就业和工资的影响做出探讨,所要解决的主要问题是：第一,人民币汇率变动会通过怎样的传导机制对中美制造业总体就业和工资以及对制造业细分行业就业和工资产生影响,以及会产生怎样的影响?第二,根据行业特征对中美制造业细分行业进行分类,分为若干特征行业。人民币汇率变动对中美制造业特征行业的就业和工资会产生怎样的影响,以及行业特征在汇率变动影响制造业特征行业就业和工资的过程中会发挥怎样的作用?第三,除了人民币汇率之外,影响中美制造业就业的其他国内因素是什么,以及人民币汇率和其他国内因素对中美制造业就业会产生怎样的影响?
基于此,本文在对国内外相关文献进行梳理的基础上,通过构建小国经济和大国经济的劳动力市场动态均衡模型,推导出人民币汇率变动影响中美制造业就业和工资的传导机制和人民币汇率的测算公式,并分别使用现值法、分解法和加权法对人民币汇率进行测算,然后利用岭回归实证研究了人民币汇率变动对中美制造业总体就业和工资以及对制造业细分行业就业和工资的影响,并分析了行业特征在汇率变动影响制造业特征行业的就业和工资过程中所发挥的作用。同时,本文通过构建以经济活动中的生产者和消费者为重点的劳动力需求和供给模型,全面考察了影响中美制造业就业的主要因素,并利用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分别分析了人民币汇率及中美国内因素对中美制造业就业的影响。
与现有文献相比,本文的创新之处体现在以下四个方面：
第一,本文不仅考察了本国货币或区域货币对本国或本地区就业的影响,而且跳出了这个圈子,同时考察了本国货币或区域货币对其他国家或地区就业的影响。即本文通过构建小国经济和大国经济的劳动力市场动态均衡模型,分别考察了小国情形和大国情形下汇率变动对就业和工资的影响。由于建立的是连续时间模型,因而能更好的刻画变量的动态变化过程。
第二,本文通过构建小国经济和大国经济的劳动力市场动态均衡模型,不仅推导出了小国和大国情形下汇率变动影响就业和工资的传导机制,同时还推导出了汇率的测算公式。在此基础上,本文利用现值法、分解法和加权法对人民币汇率进行测算,并对汇率测算结果进行了分析和比较,从而确保进行实证研究时用到的汇率指标与理论模型中的汇率指标-致。
第三,本文在研究了人民币汇率变动对中美制造业总体就业和工资以及对制造业细分行业就业和工资影响的基础上,又根据主要的行业特征对中美制造业细分行业进行分类,分别考察了人民币汇率变动对具有不同行业特征的中美制造业特征行业就业和工资的影响,以及行业特征在汇率变动影响制造业特征行业就业和工资的过程中所发挥的作用。
第四,本文在研究人民币汇率变动对中美制造业就业和工资影响的基础上,还通过构建以经济活动中的生产者和消费者为重点的劳动力需求和供给模型,全面考察了影响中美制造业就业的主要因素。同时,利用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分别分析了人民币汇率及中美国内因素对中美制造业就业的影响,并试图找出影响中美制造业就业的根源所在。
本文得出的主要结论如下：
第一,人民币汇率变动能够通过进口投入水平和出口份额这两条传导机制来影响中国制造业总体就业和工资以及制造业细分行业就业和工资。人民币汇率贬值能够拉动中国制造业总体就业和细分行业就业增长,并促进制造业总体工资和细分行业工资水平上升；人民币汇率升值则会导致中国制造业总体就业和工资水平以及细分行业就业和工资水平下降。同样的,人民币汇率变动也会给按照行业特征分类的中国制造业特征行业的就业和工资带来正向影响。并且,经营活动的性质是造成中国制造业特征行业间就业水平差异的显著因素；平均受教育水平、专业技术水平、经济性垄断程度和所有制垄断程度能够对中国制造业特征行业间工资回报差异产生决定性影响。
第二,无论是对中国制造业总体就业还是对细分行业就业而言,当制造业劳动力投入水平和进口投入水平上升,或出口份额下降时,制造业就业和工资的汇率弹性会变小；当制造业劳动力投入水平和进口投入水平下降,或出口份额上升时,制造业就业和工资的汇率弹性会增大。因此,当人民币汇率升值时,中国制造业企业加强对进口投入的依赖,进行劳动密集型生产,并减少出口份额会部分地抵消人民币汇率升值对制造业就业和工资增长的不利影响；当人民币汇率贬值时,中国制造业企业减少对进口投入的依赖,进行资本和技术密集型生产,并增加出口份额会增强人民币汇率贬值对制造业就业和工资增长的拉动作用。
第三,无论短期还是长期,中国制造业技术进步率上升或人均资本存量增加均能够显著拉动中国制造业就业增长,它们的贡献率最大；但企业贴现率的影响力最微弱,贡献率也最小。从短期来看,中国制造业实际工资率上涨或实际利率上升均能够推动中国制造业就业增加,但前者的影响较显著,后者的影响力微弱；从长期来看,实际利率下降对制造业就业增长的促进作用更加显著,其贡献率较制造业实际工资率也更大。
第四,人民币汇率变动亦能够通过进口投入水平和出口份额这两条传导机制来影响美国制造业总体就业和工资以及制造业细分行业就业和工资。其中,人民币汇率变动会给美国制造业总体就业带来正向影响,而会给制造业总体工资水平带来负向影响。然而,人民币汇率变动会给美国制造业细分行业的就业和工资主要带来正向影响。同样的,人民币汇率变动也会给按照行业特征分类的美国制造业行业就业和工资带来正向影响。并且,工会特征是造成美国制造业特征行业间就业和工资水平差异的显著因素；平均受教育水平、专业技术水平、经济性垄断程度和所有制垄断程度能够对美国制造业特征行业间工资回报差异产生决定性影响。
第五,无论是对美国制造业总体就业还是对细分行业的就业而言,当制造业劳动力投入水平和进口投入水平下降,或出口份额上升时,制造业就业和工资的汇率弹性会变小；当制造业劳动力投入水平和进口投入水平上升,或出口份额下降时,制造业就业和工资的汇率弹性会增大。因此,当人民币汇率贬值时,美国制造业企业加强对进口投入的依赖,进行劳动密集型生产,并减少出口份额会增强人民币汇率贬值对制造业就业和工资增长的拉动作用；当人民币汇率升值时,美国制造业企业减少对进口投入的依赖,进行资本和技术密集型生产,并增加出口份额会部分地抵消人民币汇率升值对制造业就业和工资增长的不利影响。
第六,无论短期还是长期,美国制造业技术进步率上升或人均资本存量增加均能够显著拉动美国制造业就业增长,它们的贡献率最大；但企业贴现率的影响力最微弱,贡献率也最小。从短期来看,美国制造业实际工资率上涨或实际利率上升均能够推动美国制造业就业增加,但前者的影响较显著,后者的影响力微弱；从长期来看,实际利率下降对制造业就业增长的促进作用更加显著,其贡献率较制造业实际工资率也更大。
本文的研究揭示出,美国政府认为的人民币汇率被低估导致美国制造业失业率上升的论点得不到理论和实证支持,其所坚持的“人民币升值”能够解决美国制造业失业问题的逻辑是站不住脚的。并且,美国国内的经济变量,如制造业技术进步率和人均资本存量等以及其自身的经济结构才是影响其制造业就业水平的根源所在。因此,美国解决制造业失业的关键在于从国内经济发展的环节进行突破,加快劳动力结构调整,寻求新的经济增长方式等,而不应一味的指责人民币汇率。本文的研究结论为今后解决中美贸易争端,为中国的对外贸易谈判提供了一定的理论和实证依据,并且对如何拉动中美制造业总体就业和工资以及制造业细分行业就业和工资增长提供了一定的启示。在总结相关研究结论的基础上,本文从人民币汇率的升值政策,中美如何提升各自的制造业总体和细分行业的就业和工资水平,以及中美如何防止各自的制造业行业特征间就业和工资差异的不断扩大等方面提出了政策建议。
Since the reform and opening up, China efforts to accelerate the process of industrialization, and raises manufacturing rapidly, which makes manufacturing gained rapid development. The ability to absorb employment of manufacturing can not be compared by other sectors' of national economy. For the United States, although the proportion of manufacturing output in its GDP declines gradually, manufacturing is still the main driver of economic growth and the important foundation of national competitiveness in U.S.. However, affected by the global financial crisis in2008, manufacturing exports of China declines sharply, and massive jobs are lost. Solid manufacturing of U.S. also continues to slump. Although the manufacturing productivity improvements and scale expansion of China leads domestic jobs growth, it also causes a certain amount of RMB appreciation pressure. As well as influenced by other factors, the cumulative appreciation of RMB exchange rate has been up to30%since the reform of RMB exchange rate regime in2005.Faced with the economic reality, the U.S. government still puts pressure on the RMB exchange rate through diplomatic channels, and considers that China uses significant RMB exchange rate undervalued to gain trade competitive advantage which leads textile and other traditional manufacturing of U.S. shrinks, and a large number of manufacturing jobs are lost. The U.S. government thinks that forcing RMB exchange rate to appreciate continually is the only one method to solve this problem. Thus, facing with the domestic and international background of continued RMB exchange rate appreciation pressure and the U.S. implementing "to revive the manufacturing", researching on impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-US manufacturing employment and wage has important practical significance.
This dissertation is intended to research the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-US manufacturing employment and wage based on the paradigm of dynamic general equilibrium, and the main issues to be addressed are:First, through which transmission mechanisms, RMB exchange rate changes can affect Sino-US manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage, and what the effects are. Second, according to the industry characteristics, this dissertation divides Sino-US manufacturing sub-sectors into several characteristic industries, and then researches on the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on employment and wage of Sino-US manufacturing characteristic industries and studies the function of industry characteristics in this process. Third, this dissertation studies that in addition to RMB exchange rate, which other domestic factors can affect Sino-US manufacturing employment, and what's the effect of RMB exchange rate and other domestic factors on Sino-US manufacturing employment.
According to the analysis above, this dissertation establishes dynamic equilibrium model of labor market of small country and major country to derive the transmission mechanisms of RMB exchange rate changes influencing Sino-US manufacturing employment and wage and the RMB exchange rate calculation formula on the basis of recognizing relevant literature, and estimates the RMB exchange rate by using present value method, decomposition method and weighting method respectively. Then utilizing ridge regression, this dissertation dose empirical research on the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-US manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage, and studies the function of industry characteristics in this process. Meanwhile, this dissertation observes the main factors which influence Sino-US manufacturing employment by constructing labor demand and supply model, and then through Johansen co-integration Test, vector error correction model Test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this dissertation analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes and Sino-US domestic factors on Sino-US manufacturing employment.
Compared with the existing literature, innovations of this dissertation express in the four aspects as follows:
Firstly, this dissertation not only examines impact of national currency or regional currency on national or regional employment, but also jumps out of the circle and examines impact of national currency or regional currency on other countries' or regions'employment. In other words, this dissertation establishes dynamic equilibrium model of labor market of small country and major country in order to investigate the impact of exchange rate changes on employment and wage under the condition of small country and major country. This dissertation establishes continuous time model to depict dynamic changing process of variables.
Secondly, through establishing dynamic equilibrium model of labor market of small country and major country, this dissertation not only derives the transmission mechanisms of exchange rate changes influencing employment and wage but also derive the exchange rate calculation formula. On this basis, this dissertation estimates the RMB exchange rate by using present value method, decomposition method and weighting method respectively, and compares and analyzes the outcome of exchange rate estimation in order to ensure that the exchange rate indicator used in empirical studies and used in theoretical models is consistent.
Thirdly, this dissertation not only dose research on impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-US manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage, but also divides Sino-US manufacturing sub-sectors into several characteristic industries according to industry characteristics, and then researches on impact of RMB exchange rate changes on employment and wage of Sino-US manufacturing characteristic industries and studies the function of industry characteristics in this process.
Fourthly, on the basis of the analysis above, this dissertation observes the main factors which influence Sino-US manufacturing employment by constructing labor demand and supply model, and then through Johansen co-integration test, vector error correction model test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this dissertation analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes and Sino-US domestic factors on Sino-US manufacturing employment, and tries to find that which factor is the source of influencing Sino-US manufacturing employment.
The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:
First, RMB exchange rate changes can affect manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage of China through manufacturing industry imported input level and export share. RMB exchange rate depreciation can lead manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment of China increase, and promote manufacturing overall or sub-sectors wage level of China rise. However, RMB exchange rate appreciation can lead to manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage of China falling. Similarly, RMB exchange rate changes will bring positive effect on the employment and wage of manufacturing characteristic industries classified according to manufacturing industry characteristics of China. In addition, the nature of business activity is an important factor which leads to employment level difference among industry of China; while the average level of education, professional and technical level, the degree of economic monopoly and ownership monopoly can play a decisive role in wage return difference among industry of China.
Second, both for manufacturing overall and sub-sector employment of China, when manufacturing labor input level and imported input level rising or export share declining, manufacturing exchange rate elasticity of employment and wage will decrease; when manufacturing labor input level and imported input level declining or export share rising, manufacturing exchange rate elasticity of employment and wage will increase. Therefore, when RMB exchange rate appreciates, Chinese manufacturing enterprises strengthening dependence on imported input, performing labor-intensive production, and reducing export share will offset the adverse effect of RMB exchange rate appreciation on manufacturing employment and wage growth partially; when RMB exchange rate depreciates, Chinese manufacturing enterprises reducing dependence on imported input, performing capital and technology-intensive production, and increasing export share will strengthen the stimulating effect of RMB exchange rate depreciation on manufacturing employment and wage growth.
Third, whether in the short-term or in the long-term, technological progress rate rising or per capita capital stock increasing of manufacturing of China can both promote manufacturing employment growth of China significantly, and their contribution is greatest, however, the influence of discount rate of company is weakest, and its contribution rate is minimal. In the short run, manufacturing real wage rate increasing or real interest rate rising of China can both boost manufacturing employment of China increase, however, the influence of former factor is more significant and the latter's influence is weak. In the long run, the promoting effect of real interest rate decline on manufacturing employment growth is more significant, and its contribution rate is also greater than manufacturing real wage rate.
Fourth, RMB exchange rate changes can also affect manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage of U.S. through manufacturing industry imported input level and export share. RMB exchange rate changes will bring positive effect on manufacturing overall employment of U.S., and will bring negative effect on manufacturing overall wage of U.S., however, RMB exchange rate changes will bring positive effect on manufacturing overall and sub-sectors employment and wage of U.S. Similarly, RMB exchange rate changes will bring positive effect on the employment and wage of manufacturing characteristic industries classified according to manufacturing industry characteristics of U.S.. In addition, the characteristic of labor union is an important factor which leads to employment level difference among industry of U.S.; while the average level of education, professional and technical level, the degree of economic monopoly and ownership monopoly can play a decisive role in wage return difference among industry of U.S..
Fifth, both for manufacturing overall and sub-sector employment of U.S., when manufacturing labor input level and imported input level declining or export share rising, manufacturing exchange rate elasticity of employment and wage will decrease; when manufacturing labor input level and imported input level rising or export share declining, manufacturing exchange rate elasticity of employment and wage will increase. Therefore, when RMB exchange rate depreciates, U.S. manufacturing enterprises strengthening dependence on imported input, performing labor-intensive production, and reducing export share will strengthen the stimulating effect of RMB exchange rate depreciation on manufacturing employment and wage growth; when RMB exchange rate appreciates, U.S. manufacturing enterprises reducing dependence on imported input, performing capital and technology-intensive production, and increasing export share will offset the adverse effect of RMB exchange rate appreciation on manufacturing employment and wage growth partially.
Sixth, whether in the short-term or in the long-term, technological progress rate rising or per capita capital stock increasing of manufacturing of U.S. can both promote manufacturing employment growth of U.S. significantly, and their contribution is greatest, however, the influence of discount rate of company is weakest, and its contribution rate is minimal. In the short run, manufacturing real wage rate increasing or real interest rate rising of U.S. can both boost manufacturing employment of U.S. increase, however, the influence of former factor is more significant and the latter's influence is weak. In the long run, the promoting effect of real interest rate decline on manufacturing employment growth is more significant, and its contribution rate is also greater than manufacturing real wage rate.
This dissertation reveals the argument that RMB exchange rate undervalued leading rising unemployment in U.S. is lack of theoretical and empirical arguments support, and the logic that forcing RMB exchange rate to appreciate can solve the problem of unemployment in U.S. is untenable. The U.S. domestic economic variables, such as manufacturing technological progress rate, per capita capital stock and U.S. economic structure is the source of influencing manufacturing employment level. Therefore, the key of solving the manufacturing unemployment of U.S. lies in breaking through from domestic economic development sectors, accelerating labor restructuring, and seeking new methods of economic growth, rather than blindly blaming RMB exchange rate. Conclusions of this dissertation provide some theoretical and empirical basis for resolving Sino-US trade disputes in the future, and for external trade negotiations of China. Meantime this dissertation puts forward to a certain amount of inspiration for pulling Sino-US manufacturing overall and sub-sectors employment and wage. On the basis of summarizing relevant research findings, this dissertation puts forward to policy recommendations from the aspects of the RMB exchange rate appreciation policy, leading Sino-US manufacturing overall and sub-sectors employment and wage level growth and preventing Sino-US manufacturing characteristic industry employment and wage gap to expand continually.
本文意在基于动态一般均衡范式对人民币汇率变动对中美制造业就业和工资的影响做出探讨,所要解决的主要问题是：第一,人民币汇率变动会通过怎样的传导机制对中美制造业总体就业和工资以及对制造业细分行业就业和工资产生影响,以及会产生怎样的影响?第二,根据行业特征对中美制造业细分行业进行分类,分为若干特征行业。人民币汇率变动对中美制造业特征行业的就业和工资会产生怎样的影响,以及行业特征在汇率变动影响制造业特征行业就业和工资的过程中会发挥怎样的作用?第三,除了人民币汇率之外,影响中美制造业就业的其他国内因素是什么,以及人民币汇率和其他国内因素对中美制造业就业会产生怎样的影响?
基于此,本文在对国内外相关文献进行梳理的基础上,通过构建小国经济和大国经济的劳动力市场动态均衡模型,推导出人民币汇率变动影响中美制造业就业和工资的传导机制和人民币汇率的测算公式,并分别使用现值法、分解法和加权法对人民币汇率进行测算,然后利用岭回归实证研究了人民币汇率变动对中美制造业总体就业和工资以及对制造业细分行业就业和工资的影响,并分析了行业特征在汇率变动影响制造业特征行业的就业和工资过程中所发挥的作用。同时,本文通过构建以经济活动中的生产者和消费者为重点的劳动力需求和供给模型,全面考察了影响中美制造业就业的主要因素,并利用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分别分析了人民币汇率及中美国内因素对中美制造业就业的影响。
与现有文献相比,本文的创新之处体现在以下四个方面：
第一,本文不仅考察了本国货币或区域货币对本国或本地区就业的影响,而且跳出了这个圈子,同时考察了本国货币或区域货币对其他国家或地区就业的影响。即本文通过构建小国经济和大国经济的劳动力市场动态均衡模型,分别考察了小国情形和大国情形下汇率变动对就业和工资的影响。由于建立的是连续时间模型,因而能更好的刻画变量的动态变化过程。
第二,本文通过构建小国经济和大国经济的劳动力市场动态均衡模型,不仅推导出了小国和大国情形下汇率变动影响就业和工资的传导机制,同时还推导出了汇率的测算公式。在此基础上,本文利用现值法、分解法和加权法对人民币汇率进行测算,并对汇率测算结果进行了分析和比较,从而确保进行实证研究时用到的汇率指标与理论模型中的汇率指标-致。
第三,本文在研究了人民币汇率变动对中美制造业总体就业和工资以及对制造业细分行业就业和工资影响的基础上,又根据主要的行业特征对中美制造业细分行业进行分类,分别考察了人民币汇率变动对具有不同行业特征的中美制造业特征行业就业和工资的影响,以及行业特征在汇率变动影响制造业特征行业就业和工资的过程中所发挥的作用。
第四,本文在研究人民币汇率变动对中美制造业就业和工资影响的基础上,还通过构建以经济活动中的生产者和消费者为重点的劳动力需求和供给模型,全面考察了影响中美制造业就业的主要因素。同时,利用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分别分析了人民币汇率及中美国内因素对中美制造业就业的影响,并试图找出影响中美制造业就业的根源所在。
本文得出的主要结论如下：
第一,人民币汇率变动能够通过进口投入水平和出口份额这两条传导机制来影响中国制造业总体就业和工资以及制造业细分行业就业和工资。人民币汇率贬值能够拉动中国制造业总体就业和细分行业就业增长,并促进制造业总体工资和细分行业工资水平上升；人民币汇率升值则会导致中国制造业总体就业和工资水平以及细分行业就业和工资水平下降。同样的,人民币汇率变动也会给按照行业特征分类的中国制造业特征行业的就业和工资带来正向影响。并且,经营活动的性质是造成中国制造业特征行业间就业水平差异的显著因素；平均受教育水平、专业技术水平、经济性垄断程度和所有制垄断程度能够对中国制造业特征行业间工资回报差异产生决定性影响。
第二,无论是对中国制造业总体就业还是对细分行业就业而言,当制造业劳动力投入水平和进口投入水平上升,或出口份额下降时,制造业就业和工资的汇率弹性会变小；当制造业劳动力投入水平和进口投入水平下降,或出口份额上升时,制造业就业和工资的汇率弹性会增大。因此,当人民币汇率升值时,中国制造业企业加强对进口投入的依赖,进行劳动密集型生产,并减少出口份额会部分地抵消人民币汇率升值对制造业就业和工资增长的不利影响；当人民币汇率贬值时,中国制造业企业减少对进口投入的依赖,进行资本和技术密集型生产,并增加出口份额会增强人民币汇率贬值对制造业就业和工资增长的拉动作用。
第三,无论短期还是长期,中国制造业技术进步率上升或人均资本存量增加均能够显著拉动中国制造业就业增长,它们的贡献率最大；但企业贴现率的影响力最微弱,贡献率也最小。从短期来看,中国制造业实际工资率上涨或实际利率上升均能够推动中国制造业就业增加,但前者的影响较显著,后者的影响力微弱；从长期来看,实际利率下降对制造业就业增长的促进作用更加显著,其贡献率较制造业实际工资率也更大。
第四,人民币汇率变动亦能够通过进口投入水平和出口份额这两条传导机制来影响美国制造业总体就业和工资以及制造业细分行业就业和工资。其中,人民币汇率变动会给美国制造业总体就业带来正向影响,而会给制造业总体工资水平带来负向影响。然而,人民币汇率变动会给美国制造业细分行业的就业和工资主要带来正向影响。同样的,人民币汇率变动也会给按照行业特征分类的美国制造业行业就业和工资带来正向影响。并且,工会特征是造成美国制造业特征行业间就业和工资水平差异的显著因素；平均受教育水平、专业技术水平、经济性垄断程度和所有制垄断程度能够对美国制造业特征行业间工资回报差异产生决定性影响。
第五,无论是对美国制造业总体就业还是对细分行业的就业而言,当制造业劳动力投入水平和进口投入水平下降,或出口份额上升时,制造业就业和工资的汇率弹性会变小；当制造业劳动力投入水平和进口投入水平上升,或出口份额下降时,制造业就业和工资的汇率弹性会增大。因此,当人民币汇率贬值时,美国制造业企业加强对进口投入的依赖,进行劳动密集型生产,并减少出口份额会增强人民币汇率贬值对制造业就业和工资增长的拉动作用；当人民币汇率升值时,美国制造业企业减少对进口投入的依赖,进行资本和技术密集型生产,并增加出口份额会部分地抵消人民币汇率升值对制造业就业和工资增长的不利影响。
第六,无论短期还是长期,美国制造业技术进步率上升或人均资本存量增加均能够显著拉动美国制造业就业增长,它们的贡献率最大；但企业贴现率的影响力最微弱,贡献率也最小。从短期来看,美国制造业实际工资率上涨或实际利率上升均能够推动美国制造业就业增加,但前者的影响较显著,后者的影响力微弱；从长期来看,实际利率下降对制造业就业增长的促进作用更加显著,其贡献率较制造业实际工资率也更大。
本文的研究揭示出,美国政府认为的人民币汇率被低估导致美国制造业失业率上升的论点得不到理论和实证支持,其所坚持的“人民币升值”能够解决美国制造业失业问题的逻辑是站不住脚的。并且,美国国内的经济变量,如制造业技术进步率和人均资本存量等以及其自身的经济结构才是影响其制造业就业水平的根源所在。因此,美国解决制造业失业的关键在于从国内经济发展的环节进行突破,加快劳动力结构调整,寻求新的经济增长方式等,而不应一味的指责人民币汇率。本文的研究结论为今后解决中美贸易争端,为中国的对外贸易谈判提供了一定的理论和实证依据,并且对如何拉动中美制造业总体就业和工资以及制造业细分行业就业和工资增长提供了一定的启示。在总结相关研究结论的基础上,本文从人民币汇率的升值政策,中美如何提升各自的制造业总体和细分行业的就业和工资水平,以及中美如何防止各自的制造业行业特征间就业和工资差异的不断扩大等方面提出了政策建议。
Since the reform and opening up, China efforts to accelerate the process of industrialization, and raises manufacturing rapidly, which makes manufacturing gained rapid development. The ability to absorb employment of manufacturing can not be compared by other sectors' of national economy. For the United States, although the proportion of manufacturing output in its GDP declines gradually, manufacturing is still the main driver of economic growth and the important foundation of national competitiveness in U.S.. However, affected by the global financial crisis in2008, manufacturing exports of China declines sharply, and massive jobs are lost. Solid manufacturing of U.S. also continues to slump. Although the manufacturing productivity improvements and scale expansion of China leads domestic jobs growth, it also causes a certain amount of RMB appreciation pressure. As well as influenced by other factors, the cumulative appreciation of RMB exchange rate has been up to30%since the reform of RMB exchange rate regime in2005.Faced with the economic reality, the U.S. government still puts pressure on the RMB exchange rate through diplomatic channels, and considers that China uses significant RMB exchange rate undervalued to gain trade competitive advantage which leads textile and other traditional manufacturing of U.S. shrinks, and a large number of manufacturing jobs are lost. The U.S. government thinks that forcing RMB exchange rate to appreciate continually is the only one method to solve this problem. Thus, facing with the domestic and international background of continued RMB exchange rate appreciation pressure and the U.S. implementing "to revive the manufacturing", researching on impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-US manufacturing employment and wage has important practical significance.
This dissertation is intended to research the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-US manufacturing employment and wage based on the paradigm of dynamic general equilibrium, and the main issues to be addressed are:First, through which transmission mechanisms, RMB exchange rate changes can affect Sino-US manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage, and what the effects are. Second, according to the industry characteristics, this dissertation divides Sino-US manufacturing sub-sectors into several characteristic industries, and then researches on the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on employment and wage of Sino-US manufacturing characteristic industries and studies the function of industry characteristics in this process. Third, this dissertation studies that in addition to RMB exchange rate, which other domestic factors can affect Sino-US manufacturing employment, and what's the effect of RMB exchange rate and other domestic factors on Sino-US manufacturing employment.
According to the analysis above, this dissertation establishes dynamic equilibrium model of labor market of small country and major country to derive the transmission mechanisms of RMB exchange rate changes influencing Sino-US manufacturing employment and wage and the RMB exchange rate calculation formula on the basis of recognizing relevant literature, and estimates the RMB exchange rate by using present value method, decomposition method and weighting method respectively. Then utilizing ridge regression, this dissertation dose empirical research on the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-US manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage, and studies the function of industry characteristics in this process. Meanwhile, this dissertation observes the main factors which influence Sino-US manufacturing employment by constructing labor demand and supply model, and then through Johansen co-integration Test, vector error correction model Test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this dissertation analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes and Sino-US domestic factors on Sino-US manufacturing employment.
Compared with the existing literature, innovations of this dissertation express in the four aspects as follows:
Firstly, this dissertation not only examines impact of national currency or regional currency on national or regional employment, but also jumps out of the circle and examines impact of national currency or regional currency on other countries' or regions'employment. In other words, this dissertation establishes dynamic equilibrium model of labor market of small country and major country in order to investigate the impact of exchange rate changes on employment and wage under the condition of small country and major country. This dissertation establishes continuous time model to depict dynamic changing process of variables.
Secondly, through establishing dynamic equilibrium model of labor market of small country and major country, this dissertation not only derives the transmission mechanisms of exchange rate changes influencing employment and wage but also derive the exchange rate calculation formula. On this basis, this dissertation estimates the RMB exchange rate by using present value method, decomposition method and weighting method respectively, and compares and analyzes the outcome of exchange rate estimation in order to ensure that the exchange rate indicator used in empirical studies and used in theoretical models is consistent.
Thirdly, this dissertation not only dose research on impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-US manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage, but also divides Sino-US manufacturing sub-sectors into several characteristic industries according to industry characteristics, and then researches on impact of RMB exchange rate changes on employment and wage of Sino-US manufacturing characteristic industries and studies the function of industry characteristics in this process.
Fourthly, on the basis of the analysis above, this dissertation observes the main factors which influence Sino-US manufacturing employment by constructing labor demand and supply model, and then through Johansen co-integration test, vector error correction model test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this dissertation analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate changes and Sino-US domestic factors on Sino-US manufacturing employment, and tries to find that which factor is the source of influencing Sino-US manufacturing employment.
The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:
First, RMB exchange rate changes can affect manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage of China through manufacturing industry imported input level and export share. RMB exchange rate depreciation can lead manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment of China increase, and promote manufacturing overall or sub-sectors wage level of China rise. However, RMB exchange rate appreciation can lead to manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage of China falling. Similarly, RMB exchange rate changes will bring positive effect on the employment and wage of manufacturing characteristic industries classified according to manufacturing industry characteristics of China. In addition, the nature of business activity is an important factor which leads to employment level difference among industry of China; while the average level of education, professional and technical level, the degree of economic monopoly and ownership monopoly can play a decisive role in wage return difference among industry of China.
Second, both for manufacturing overall and sub-sector employment of China, when manufacturing labor input level and imported input level rising or export share declining, manufacturing exchange rate elasticity of employment and wage will decrease; when manufacturing labor input level and imported input level declining or export share rising, manufacturing exchange rate elasticity of employment and wage will increase. Therefore, when RMB exchange rate appreciates, Chinese manufacturing enterprises strengthening dependence on imported input, performing labor-intensive production, and reducing export share will offset the adverse effect of RMB exchange rate appreciation on manufacturing employment and wage growth partially; when RMB exchange rate depreciates, Chinese manufacturing enterprises reducing dependence on imported input, performing capital and technology-intensive production, and increasing export share will strengthen the stimulating effect of RMB exchange rate depreciation on manufacturing employment and wage growth.
Third, whether in the short-term or in the long-term, technological progress rate rising or per capita capital stock increasing of manufacturing of China can both promote manufacturing employment growth of China significantly, and their contribution is greatest, however, the influence of discount rate of company is weakest, and its contribution rate is minimal. In the short run, manufacturing real wage rate increasing or real interest rate rising of China can both boost manufacturing employment of China increase, however, the influence of former factor is more significant and the latter's influence is weak. In the long run, the promoting effect of real interest rate decline on manufacturing employment growth is more significant, and its contribution rate is also greater than manufacturing real wage rate.
Fourth, RMB exchange rate changes can also affect manufacturing overall or sub-sectors employment and wage of U.S. through manufacturing industry imported input level and export share. RMB exchange rate changes will bring positive effect on manufacturing overall employment of U.S., and will bring negative effect on manufacturing overall wage of U.S., however, RMB exchange rate changes will bring positive effect on manufacturing overall and sub-sectors employment and wage of U.S. Similarly, RMB exchange rate changes will bring positive effect on the employment and wage of manufacturing characteristic industries classified according to manufacturing industry characteristics of U.S.. In addition, the characteristic of labor union is an important factor which leads to employment level difference among industry of U.S.; while the average level of education, professional and technical level, the degree of economic monopoly and ownership monopoly can play a decisive role in wage return difference among industry of U.S..
Fifth, both for manufacturing overall and sub-sector employment of U.S., when manufacturing labor input level and imported input level declining or export share rising, manufacturing exchange rate elasticity of employment and wage will decrease; when manufacturing labor input level and imported input level rising or export share declining, manufacturing exchange rate elasticity of employment and wage will increase. Therefore, when RMB exchange rate depreciates, U.S. manufacturing enterprises strengthening dependence on imported input, performing labor-intensive production, and reducing export share will strengthen the stimulating effect of RMB exchange rate depreciation on manufacturing employment and wage growth; when RMB exchange rate appreciates, U.S. manufacturing enterprises reducing dependence on imported input, performing capital and technology-intensive production, and increasing export share will offset the adverse effect of RMB exchange rate appreciation on manufacturing employment and wage growth partially.
Sixth, whether in the short-term or in the long-term, technological progress rate rising or per capita capital stock increasing of manufacturing of U.S. can both promote manufacturing employment growth of U.S. significantly, and their contribution is greatest, however, the influence of discount rate of company is weakest, and its contribution rate is minimal. In the short run, manufacturing real wage rate increasing or real interest rate rising of U.S. can both boost manufacturing employment of U.S. increase, however, the influence of former factor is more significant and the latter's influence is weak. In the long run, the promoting effect of real interest rate decline on manufacturing employment growth is more significant, and its contribution rate is also greater than manufacturing real wage rate.
This dissertation reveals the argument that RMB exchange rate undervalued leading rising unemployment in U.S. is lack of theoretical and empirical arguments support, and the logic that forcing RMB exchange rate to appreciate can solve the problem of unemployment in U.S. is untenable. The U.S. domestic economic variables, such as manufacturing technological progress rate, per capita capital stock and U.S. economic structure is the source of influencing manufacturing employment level. Therefore, the key of solving the manufacturing unemployment of U.S. lies in breaking through from domestic economic development sectors, accelerating labor restructuring, and seeking new methods of economic growth, rather than blindly blaming RMB exchange rate. Conclusions of this dissertation provide some theoretical and empirical basis for resolving Sino-US trade disputes in the future, and for external trade negotiations of China. Meantime this dissertation puts forward to a certain amount of inspiration for pulling Sino-US manufacturing overall and sub-sectors employment and wage. On the basis of summarizing relevant research findings, this dissertation puts forward to policy recommendations from the aspects of the RMB exchange rate appreciation policy, leading Sino-US manufacturing overall and sub-sectors employment and wage level growth and preventing Sino-US manufacturing characteristic industry employment and wage gap to expand continually.
引文
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