中国式分权、内生的财政政策与宏观经济稳定：理论与实证
|
摘要
本文试图为中国政府构造一个有利于科学发展的宏观调控体系框架。其中理论框架是通过回答以下三个基本问题的方式完成的。第一个基本问题是面对宏观经济不稳定,一个仁慈性政府应该采取什么样的政策组合?第二个基本问题是中国地方政府为什么会采用不利于宏观经济稳定的扩张偏向的财政政策?第三个基本问题是如何尽可能的确保中国地方政府象一个仁慈性政府一样行动?
第2章通过梳理和评述价格水平决定的财政理论及其政策主张对第一个基本问题做出了回答。即一个仁慈性政府在正常时期下,一般应采用积极型货币政策与局部李嘉图财政政策的组合;在非正常时期下,应采用被动型货币政策与非李嘉图财政政策的组合。
第5章通过梳理和借鉴相关研究文献提出了一个理论假说,该假说认为中国扩张偏向的财政政策就是中国式分权的治理模式和缺乏良好的制度约束互动的一个可以解释的结果。这就回答了第二个基本问题。
第6章主要从改革中国式分权的治理模式、修改《预算法》和提高财政透明度三个方面试图使中国地方政府尽可能象一个仁慈性政府一样行动。其中改革中国式分权的治理模式的一个思路是采用一个以经济稳定优先并兼顾民意的政绩考核机制。
然而,本文认为一个有效的有利于科学发展的宏观调控体系框架应有其相应的实证基础。因此,本文对价格水平决定的财政理论和扩张偏向的财政政策的理论假说分别进行了检验,实证结果表明两大理论都很好的通过了验证。具体的说,第3章根据Sala的VAR发现,实际利率对于一单位的实际税收正向冲击的反应基本为正;进一步地通过Kim的SVAR,我们不仅发现了通胀和通缩的交替过程,而且还发现了扩张和衰退的交替过程。这些发现与识别价格水平决定的财政理论的条件完全一致。第5章通过构造中国式分权和制度约束的代理变量并利用1994-2004年度的地区非平衡面板数据和Probit模型方法发现,政府竞争对财政政策扩张偏向的边际影响是反腐败力度的递减函数。
除此之外,本文还探讨了中国“缩长”之谜的可信谜底,认为价格水平决定的财政理论可以从政策搭配的角度丰富更有解释力的总需求不足说。这意味着合理的政策搭配是多么的重要。
It tries to construct a Macro-Control framework to be beneficial to scientific development for Chinese government, whose theoretical framework is constructed by answering three basic problems as follows. The first one is, when confronted with macroeconomic destability, what kinds of policy mix a benevolent government should adopt? The second one is, why would Chinese local government adopt expansion-biased fiscal policy not to be beneficial to macroeconomic stability? The third one is, how should we ensure that Chinese local government would act as a benevolent government?
Through surveying the fiscal theory of price level and its policy suggestions, Chapter 2 answers the first problem, that is, a benevolent government should generally adopt a policy mix of active monetary policy and local Ricardian fiscal policy in normal times; a policy mix of passive monetary policy and non-Ricardian fiscal policy in abnormal times.
Based on the literatures concerning the theme, Chapter 5 provides a theoretical hypothesis that expansion-biased fiscal policy is interactive outcome of Chinese-Style decentralization and deficient institutional constraints. It is a key of the second problem.
Chapter 6 tries to make Chinese local government act as a belevolent government from the three dimentions repectively, changing governance mode of Chinese style decentralization, revising Budget Law and enhancing fiscal transparency. We suggest central government should adopt political performance assessment mechanisms that economic stability is priority and the public's demand should also be taken into consideration.However, it thinks that an effective Macro-Control framework should have its empirical foundation. Therefore, it tests FTPL's applicability in China and expansion-biased fiscal policy hypothesis respectively. Empirical results show that each theory has been verified well. Concretely speaking, according to Sala's VAR and Kim's SVAR , Chapter 3 finds the following formal empirical evidences that support FTPL from different perspectives , respectively, (1) in overwhelming majority of time, real interest rate responds to a positive shock of real revenue from tax positively;(2) there are significant reverses both inflation and output growth rate. Based on an annual unbalanced panel over the period of 1994-2004 and Probit model, Chapter 5 finds government competition's marginal effect on expansion-biased fiscal policy is a diminishing function of anticorruption index.
Besides, it also discusses credible key of deflation-growth puzzle in China and thinks that based-FTPL hypothesis may improve demand-deficiency hypothesis from policy-mix perspective. It shows that it is very important to have a reasonable policy mix.
第2章通过梳理和评述价格水平决定的财政理论及其政策主张对第一个基本问题做出了回答。即一个仁慈性政府在正常时期下,一般应采用积极型货币政策与局部李嘉图财政政策的组合;在非正常时期下,应采用被动型货币政策与非李嘉图财政政策的组合。
第5章通过梳理和借鉴相关研究文献提出了一个理论假说,该假说认为中国扩张偏向的财政政策就是中国式分权的治理模式和缺乏良好的制度约束互动的一个可以解释的结果。这就回答了第二个基本问题。
第6章主要从改革中国式分权的治理模式、修改《预算法》和提高财政透明度三个方面试图使中国地方政府尽可能象一个仁慈性政府一样行动。其中改革中国式分权的治理模式的一个思路是采用一个以经济稳定优先并兼顾民意的政绩考核机制。
然而,本文认为一个有效的有利于科学发展的宏观调控体系框架应有其相应的实证基础。因此,本文对价格水平决定的财政理论和扩张偏向的财政政策的理论假说分别进行了检验,实证结果表明两大理论都很好的通过了验证。具体的说,第3章根据Sala的VAR发现,实际利率对于一单位的实际税收正向冲击的反应基本为正;进一步地通过Kim的SVAR,我们不仅发现了通胀和通缩的交替过程,而且还发现了扩张和衰退的交替过程。这些发现与识别价格水平决定的财政理论的条件完全一致。第5章通过构造中国式分权和制度约束的代理变量并利用1994-2004年度的地区非平衡面板数据和Probit模型方法发现,政府竞争对财政政策扩张偏向的边际影响是反腐败力度的递减函数。
除此之外,本文还探讨了中国“缩长”之谜的可信谜底,认为价格水平决定的财政理论可以从政策搭配的角度丰富更有解释力的总需求不足说。这意味着合理的政策搭配是多么的重要。
It tries to construct a Macro-Control framework to be beneficial to scientific development for Chinese government, whose theoretical framework is constructed by answering three basic problems as follows. The first one is, when confronted with macroeconomic destability, what kinds of policy mix a benevolent government should adopt? The second one is, why would Chinese local government adopt expansion-biased fiscal policy not to be beneficial to macroeconomic stability? The third one is, how should we ensure that Chinese local government would act as a benevolent government?
Through surveying the fiscal theory of price level and its policy suggestions, Chapter 2 answers the first problem, that is, a benevolent government should generally adopt a policy mix of active monetary policy and local Ricardian fiscal policy in normal times; a policy mix of passive monetary policy and non-Ricardian fiscal policy in abnormal times.
Based on the literatures concerning the theme, Chapter 5 provides a theoretical hypothesis that expansion-biased fiscal policy is interactive outcome of Chinese-Style decentralization and deficient institutional constraints. It is a key of the second problem.
Chapter 6 tries to make Chinese local government act as a belevolent government from the three dimentions repectively, changing governance mode of Chinese style decentralization, revising Budget Law and enhancing fiscal transparency. We suggest central government should adopt political performance assessment mechanisms that economic stability is priority and the public's demand should also be taken into consideration.However, it thinks that an effective Macro-Control framework should have its empirical foundation. Therefore, it tests FTPL's applicability in China and expansion-biased fiscal policy hypothesis respectively. Empirical results show that each theory has been verified well. Concretely speaking, according to Sala's VAR and Kim's SVAR , Chapter 3 finds the following formal empirical evidences that support FTPL from different perspectives , respectively, (1) in overwhelming majority of time, real interest rate responds to a positive shock of real revenue from tax positively;(2) there are significant reverses both inflation and output growth rate. Based on an annual unbalanced panel over the period of 1994-2004 and Probit model, Chapter 5 finds government competition's marginal effect on expansion-biased fiscal policy is a diminishing function of anticorruption index.
Besides, it also discusses credible key of deflation-growth puzzle in China and thinks that based-FTPL hypothesis may improve demand-deficiency hypothesis from policy-mix perspective. It shows that it is very important to have a reasonable policy mix.
引文
[1] Agenor, p., McDermott, J. and Prasad, E.,1999, "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts", International Monetary Fund, WP/99/35.
[2] Alesina and Tabellini, 2006, "Why is Fiscal Policy often Procyclical ?" , Working paper.
[3] Arreaza, A., Sorensen, B., and Yosha , O.,1999, "Consumption Smoothing Through Fiscal Policy in OECD and EU Countries", in James Poterba and Jurgen von Hagen eds., Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
[4] Bernanke, B.S.,Gertler, M. and Gilchrist, S. ,1996, "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality", Review of Economics and Statistics ,78,1-15
[5] Bernanke, B.S.,Gertler, M. and Gilchrist, S. , 1998 ,"The Financial Accelerator in A Quantitative Business Cycle Framework", National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No.6455.
[6] Blanchard, O.J., and Kahn, C.M, 1980, "The Solution of Linear Difference Equations under Rational Expectations" , Econometrica ,48,1305-1313.
[7] Blanchard ,O,J., and D. Quah, 1989, "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate-supply and Demand Disturbances", American Economic Review, 79,655-673.
[8] Bohn, H., 1998, "The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113, 949-963.
[9] Canzoneri, M.B., Cumby, R.E, and Diba, B.T.,2001,"Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?" , American Economic Review ,91,1221-1238.
[10] Carlstrom , C.T. and Fuerst, T.S. ,1997, "Agency Cost, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuation: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis", American Economic Review, 87, 893-910.
[11] Catao, Luis A. and Bennett W. Sutton,2002, "Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility", IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund.
[12] Clarida, R.; Gali, J.and Gertler,M.,2000, "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1), 147-180.
[13] Cochrane, J.H.,1998 ,"A Frictionless View of US Inflation", NBER Macroeconomics Annual. MIT Press, 323-384.
[14] Cochrane, J.H., 2001,"Long-Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level" ,Econometrica, January,69(1),69-116.
[15] Cochrane, J.H., ,2006," Identification and Price Determination with Taylor Rules: A Critical Review", Working Paper,University of Chicago.
[16] Cochrane,J.H.,2007,"Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: A Critical Review",September 12.
[17] Creel, J., and Bihan , H., 2006,"Using Structural Balance Data to Test the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Some International Evidence", Journal of Macroeconomics 28(2):338-360..
[18] Davig,T, Leeper, E.M.,and Chung,H.,2006,"Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching",Manuscript, Indiana University.
[19] Davig,T, and Leeper,E.M.,2006,"Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory", Manuscript ,Indiana University.
[20] Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R. and von Hagen,J.,1996, "Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Latin America: the Case for a National Fiscal Council", Mimeo, Inter-American Development Bank.
[21] Fatas,A. and Mihov,I,2003, "The case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion", Quarterly Journal of Economics ,CXVIII,1419-1448.
[22] Favero,C.A., and Monacelli,T.,2003,"Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from the U.S",CEPR Discussion Paper No.3887.
[23] Favero,C.A., and Monacelli,T.,2005,"Fiscal Policy Rules and Regime(In) Stability: Evidence from the U.S",Manuscript, IGIER.
[24] Forbes,K., and Rigobon, R., 1998, "No Contagion, Only Inderpendence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements", NBER, Working Paper# 7267.
[25] Forbes,K., and Rigobon,R., 2002, "No Contagion, Only Inderpendence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements", Journal of Finance,57(5),2223-2261.
[26] Gali,Jordi,1994, "Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability", European Economic Review, 38(1), 117-132.
[27] Gali,J.,2006,"Comment on Davig and Leeper's 'Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory'", Manuscript, CREI.
[28] Gang Gong. and Justin Yifu Lin."Deflationary Expansion: An Overshooting Perspective to the Recent Business Cycle in China",China Economic Review,2006,9, 1-21.
[29] Gavin, M. and Perotti, R.,1997, "Fiscal Policy in Latin America", in Bernanke, Ben and Rotemberg, Julio, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997,Cambridge,MA: MIT Press.
[30] Haggard, 1990, Pathways from Periphery: The Politics of Growth in the Newly Industrializing Countries , Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
[31] Haiyan Song.;Zinan Liu.and Jiang Ping.,2001,"Analyzing the determinants of China's Aggregate Investment in the Reform Period",China Economic Review,12, 227-242.
[32] Hamilton, J.D, and Flavin,M.A,1986,"on the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for empirical testing", American economic Review, 76,808-819.
[33] Henisz, W., 2000 , "The Institutional Environment for Economic Growth", Economics and Politics ,12,1-31.
[34] Kaminski, G., Reinhart, C., and Vegh, C.,2004, "When it Rains it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies", in Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff(eds), NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2004, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
[35] Kim, S.,2003,"Structural Shocks and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in the Sticky Price Model", Macroeconomic Dynamics,7,759-782.
[36] Lane, Philip,2003, "The Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD" ,Journal of Public Economics, 87,2661-2675.
[37] Lane , P.R. and Tornell, A., 1996, "Power, Growth and the Voracity Effect", Journal of Economic Growth ,1,213-241.
[38] Lane , P.R. and Tornell, A., 1998, "Why aren't Latin American Savings Rates Procyclical? " Journal of Development Economics ,57,185-200.
[39] Leeper, E.M.,1991,"Equilibria under 'Active 'and 'Passive 'Monetary and Fiscal Policies", Journal of Monetary Economics, 27(1),129-147.
[40] Leeper, E.M.,1993,"The Policy Tango: Toward a Holistic View of Monetary and Fiscal Effects", Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, 78(4), 1-27.
[41] Leeper, E.M., 2006,"discussion on ' Identification and Price Determination with Taylor Rules: A Critical Review' by John Cochrane", Manuscript ,Indiana University.
[42] Loyo, E.,1997,"The Wealth Effects of Monetary Policy and Brazilian Inflation",Department of Economics ,Princeton University,Unpublished ,November.
[43] Lubik,Thomas A. and Frank Schorfheide.,2004,"Testing for Indeterminacy :An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy", American Economic Review,94,190-217.
[44] Lutkepohl , 2004, Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge University Press.
[45] Manasse,Paolo,2005, "The Puzzle of Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks ,Rules and Institutions, "IMF Working Paper.
[46] McKinnon, R.,1997 , "Market-Preserving Fiscal Federalism in the American Monetary Union", In Mairo, B. and T. Ter-Minassian(eds), Macroeconomic Dimensions of Public Finance, Routledge.
[47] Obstfeld, M., and Rogoff,K.,1983,"Speculative Hyperinflation in Maximizing Models: Can we Rule them Out?", Journal of Political Economy ,91,675-687.
[48] Obstfeld , M., and Rogoff,K.,1986,"Ruling out Divergent Speculative Bubbles", Journal of Monetary Economics ,17,349-362.
[49] Qian,Yingyi, and Barry R. Weingast,1997,"Federalism as a Commitment to Preserving Market Incentives", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(4),83-92.
[50] Qian,Yingyi, and G Roland, 1998,"Federalism and the Soft Budget Constraint", American Economic Review,77,265-284.
[51] Ravn,M.O., and Uhlig , H., 2002, " Notes on Adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the Frequency of Obervations ", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2),371-380.
[52] Rawski, T.G., 2001,"What is happening to China's GDP Statistics?",China Economic Review,12, 347-354.
[53] Rawski, T.G.,2002, "Measuring China's Recent GDP Growth", China Economic Quarterly ,2, 53-62.
[54] Roberds,W.,1991,"Implications of Expected Present Value Budget Balance: Application to Postwar U.S. Data", In: Hansen, Sargent (Eds), Rational Expectations Econometrics,Westview Press, Boulder,163-175.
[55] Rodrik, Dani, 1998, "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments" Journal of Political Economy, 106,997-1032.
[56] Sala, L., 2004,"The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Identifying Restrictions and Empirical Evidence", IGIER Working paper NO.257.
[57] Sargent, T.J. and Wallace, N.,1981, "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic", Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 5(Fall), 1-17.
[58] Sims, Christopher A.,1994,"A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy", Economic Theory 4,381-99.
[59] Sims, Christopher A.,2003,"Limits to Inflation Targeting", in Bernanke,Ben S., and Michael Woodford, eds., The Inflation-Targeting Debate, NBER Studies in Business Cycles Volume 32, Ch.7,283-310. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. http://sims.princeton.edu/yftp/Targeting/TargetingFiscalPaper.pdf.
[60] Sorensen, B., Wu, L., and Yosha,O.,2001, "Output Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy: U.S. State and Local Govenments 1978-1994, "European Economic Review,45,1271-1310.
[61] Stein, E., Talvi, E., and Gristani, A, 1999, "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance, " in James Poterba and Jurgen von Hagen eds., Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 103-134.
[62] Steuerle, C.E.,2006," Fiscal Policy from Kennedy to Reagan to G.W. Bush ",in The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy, ed. by R.W. Kopcke , G.M.B. Tootell, and R.K. Triest, 119-142.MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
[63] Talvi, E. and Vegh,C.,2000,"Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal policy", NBER, Working Paper #7499.
[64] Talvi, E. and Vegh,C.,2005,"Tax Base Variability and Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy", Journal of Development Economics, 78, 156-190.
[65] Taylor, J.B., 1993,"Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice", Carneige-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,39,195-214.
[66] Tornell, A. and Lane, P.R., 1998, " Are Windfalls a Curse? A non-representative agent model of the current account, " Journal of International Economics ,44,83-112.
[67] Tornell,A. and Lane,P.R.,1999 , "The Voractiy Effect", American Economic Review ,89,22-46.
[68] Von Hagen, J" rgen and Ian Harden,1995, "Budget Processes and Commitment to Fiscal Discipline", European Economic Review ,39,771-79.
[69] Weingast, Barry R.,1995,"The Economic Role of Political Institutions: Market-Preserving Federalism and Economic Development", Journal of Law and Economic Organization , 11,1-31.
[70] Woo, 2005, "The Behavior of Fiscal Policy: Cyclicality and Discretionary Fiscal Decisions", Working paper.
[71]Woodford,M.,1995,"Price-Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate",Carneige-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,43,1-46.
[72]Woodford,M.,1996,"Control of the Public Debt:A Requirement for Priced Stability?",NBER W.P 5684.
[73]Woodford,M.,1998,"A Cashless View of U.S.Inflation:A Comment",In Bernanke and Rotemberg,eds.,NBER Macroeconomics Annual Cambridge,Mass.,MIT Press,323-84.
[74]Woodford,M.,2001,"Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability",Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,33(3),669-728.
[75]Woodford,M.,2003,Interest and Price,Princeton:Princeton University Press.
[76]安体富、王海勇:《稳健的财政政策:含义、内容和意义》,《成人高教学刊》2005年第4期,第4-6页。
[77]北大中国经济研究中心宏观组:《正视通货紧缩压力,加快微观机制改革》,《经济研究》1999年第7期。
[78]蔡辉明(2004):《金融加速器与中国经济波动》,载于易纲编《预防通货紧缩和保持经济较快增长研究》(论文集),北京大学出版社,2005年。
[79]陈共:《稳健财政政策刍议》,《财政研究》2005年第1期。
[80]陈昆亭、龚六堂:《粘滞价格模型以及对中国经济的数值模拟-对基于RBC 模型的改进》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2006年第8期。
[81]樊纲:《通货紧缩、有效降价与经济波动-当前中国宏观经济若干特点的分析》,《经济研究》2003年第7期。
[82]樊纲:《克服信贷萎缩与银行体系改革-1998年宏观经济形势分析与1999年展望》,《经济研究》1999年第1期。
[83]樊明太:《金融结构及其对货币传导机制的影响》,《经济研究》2004年第7期。
[84]方红生:《一个中国式的超多边发债协议模型》,《经济研究》2002年第8期。
[85]方红生:《一个中国式的超多边发债协议模型》,《经济研究》2002年第8期。
[86]方红生:《一个中国通货膨胀史的可行框架:1981-2006》,工作论文,2007年。
[87]方红生:《价格水平决定的财政理论:一个实证综述》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2008年第5期。
[88]方红生、朱保华:《价格水平决定的财政理论在中国的适用性检验》,《管 理世界》2008年第3期。
[89]傅勇:《中国式分权、地方财政模式与公共物品供给:理论与实证研究》,复旦大学博士学位论文,2007年。
[90]傅勇、张晏:《中国式分权与财政支出结构偏向:为增长而竞争的代价》,《管理世界》2007年第3期,第4-12页。
[91]傅恒杰:《我国实行稳健财政政策的必要性及对策探讨》,《生产力研究》2005年第11期,第151-153页。
[92]高文博、张维达:《实施稳健财政政策的选择和对策》,《当代经济研究》2005年第7期,第61-64页。
[93]高培勇:《破冰而出的稳健财政政策-关于当前中国财政政策基本取向的分析》,《中国人民大学学报》,2005年第5期。
[94]龚六堂、邹恒甫:《财政政策与价格水平的决定》,《经济研究》2002年第2期。
[95]龚刚、林毅夫:《过度反应:中国经济“缩长”之解释》,《经济研究》2007年第4期,第53-66页。
[96]郭庆旺、贾俊雪:《中国潜在产出与产出缺口的估算》,《经济研究》2004年第5期,第31-39页。
[97]胡鞍钢:《应实行通货非膨胀政策》,中国经济时报,1999年3月26日。
蒋永庆:《中国的利率政策和通货紧缩》,载于易纲编《预防通货紧缩和保持经济较快增长研究》(论文集),北京大学出版社,2005年。
[98]贾康:《从积极到稳健-中国财政政策转型与展望》,《财政与税务》2005年第1期。
[99]金人庆:《实行稳健财政政策促进经济平稳较快发展》,《人民日报》,2004年12月7日。
[100]金人庆:《实行稳健的财政政策促进经济平衡较快发展》,《财政与税务》2005年第1期。
[101]李扬:《通货紧缩的宏观思考》,《光明同报》,1999年7月30日。
[102]李永友:《经济波动的财政政策稳定效应.基于中国1978年以来的经验数据的实证分析》,北京:《中国社会科学出版社》2007年版。
[103]林毅夫:《我国通货紧缩的成因与对策》,北大中国经济研究中心简报,1999年。
[104]马俊、刘亚平:《中国地方政府财政风险研究:“逆向软预算约束”理论的视角》,《学术研究》2005年第11期,第77-84页。
[105]马拴友、于红霞、陈启清:《国债与宏观经济的动态分析》,《经济研究》 2006年第4期。
[106]马兹晖:《中国地方财政收入与支出-面板数据因果性与协整研究》,《管理世界》2008年第3期,第40-48页。
[107]任若恩:《中国GDP统计水分有多大-评两个估计中国GDP数据研究的若干方法问题》,《经济学季刊》2002年第1期。
[108]沈利生:《我国潜在经济增长率变动趋势估计》,《数量经济技术经济研究》1999年第12期,第3-6页。
[109]田秋生:《中国通货紧缩问题研究》,科学出版社,2006年。
[110]汪同三、李涛:《中国通货紧缩的深层次原因》,《中国社会科学》2001年第6期。
[111]宛圆渊:《金融加速器、资产价格和货币政策》,北京大学中国经济研究中心硕士论文,2005年。
[112]王庆:《为什么选择升值而不是加息》,《上海证券报》,2008年4月7日。
[113]王少平:《宏观计量的若干前沿理论与应用》,南开大学出版社,2003年。
[114]王永钦、张晏、章元、陈钊、陆铭:《中国的大国发展道路-论分权式改革的得失》,《经济研究》2007年第1期,第4-16页。
[115]沃什:《货币理论与政策》,中译本,上海财经大学出版社,2004年。
[116]谢平、罗雄:《泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验》,《经济研究》,2002年第3期。
[117]许宪春:《中外经济学家对中国官方经济增长率的评论》,《清华大学中国经济研究中心研究动态》2002年第135期。
[118]殷克东、赵昕、战德坤:《McCallum规则在我国货币政策中的应用及启示》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2001年第12期。
[119]易纲、林明:《理解中国经济增长》,《中国社会科学》2003年第2期。
[120]张军、高远、傅勇、张弘:《中国为什么拥有了良好的基础设施?》,《经济研究》2007年第3期,第4-19页。
[121]张献国,2005,“关于稳健财政政策的若干思考”,《河北经贸大学学报》2005年第5期,第57-60页。
[122]张晏等:《标尺竞争在中国存在吗?-对我国地方政府公共支出相关性的研究》,复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济研究中心工作论文,2005年。
[123]张茵、万广华:《中国的经济周期:一个AD-AS模型的视角》,《世界经济文汇》2005年第2期。
[124]赵京兴:《消费需求分析》载《中国经济前景分析:1999年春季报告》, 社会科学文献出版社,1999年。
[125]赵振全、于震、刘淼:《金融加速器效应在中国存在吗?》,《经济研究》2007年第6期,第27-38页。
[126]周黎安:《中国地方官员的晋升锦标赛模式研究》,《经济研究》2007年第7期,第36-50页。
[127]周扬:《信贷市场结构与中国1996-2000的经济波动》,2001年北京大学中国经济研究中心硕士论文。
[128]周业安、章泉:《财政分权、经济增长和波动》,《管理世界》2008年第3期,第6-15页。
[129]朱民等:《中国通货紧缩的原因》载《成因与对策:透析中国的通货紧缩》,成思危,2002,经济科学出版社,第124-126页。
[2] Alesina and Tabellini, 2006, "Why is Fiscal Policy often Procyclical ?" , Working paper.
[3] Arreaza, A., Sorensen, B., and Yosha , O.,1999, "Consumption Smoothing Through Fiscal Policy in OECD and EU Countries", in James Poterba and Jurgen von Hagen eds., Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
[4] Bernanke, B.S.,Gertler, M. and Gilchrist, S. ,1996, "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality", Review of Economics and Statistics ,78,1-15
[5] Bernanke, B.S.,Gertler, M. and Gilchrist, S. , 1998 ,"The Financial Accelerator in A Quantitative Business Cycle Framework", National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No.6455.
[6] Blanchard, O.J., and Kahn, C.M, 1980, "The Solution of Linear Difference Equations under Rational Expectations" , Econometrica ,48,1305-1313.
[7] Blanchard ,O,J., and D. Quah, 1989, "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate-supply and Demand Disturbances", American Economic Review, 79,655-673.
[8] Bohn, H., 1998, "The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113, 949-963.
[9] Canzoneri, M.B., Cumby, R.E, and Diba, B.T.,2001,"Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?" , American Economic Review ,91,1221-1238.
[10] Carlstrom , C.T. and Fuerst, T.S. ,1997, "Agency Cost, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuation: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis", American Economic Review, 87, 893-910.
[11] Catao, Luis A. and Bennett W. Sutton,2002, "Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility", IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund.
[12] Clarida, R.; Gali, J.and Gertler,M.,2000, "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1), 147-180.
[13] Cochrane, J.H.,1998 ,"A Frictionless View of US Inflation", NBER Macroeconomics Annual. MIT Press, 323-384.
[14] Cochrane, J.H., 2001,"Long-Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level" ,Econometrica, January,69(1),69-116.
[15] Cochrane, J.H., ,2006," Identification and Price Determination with Taylor Rules: A Critical Review", Working Paper,University of Chicago.
[16] Cochrane,J.H.,2007,"Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: A Critical Review",September 12.
[17] Creel, J., and Bihan , H., 2006,"Using Structural Balance Data to Test the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Some International Evidence", Journal of Macroeconomics 28(2):338-360..
[18] Davig,T, Leeper, E.M.,and Chung,H.,2006,"Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching",Manuscript, Indiana University.
[19] Davig,T, and Leeper,E.M.,2006,"Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory", Manuscript ,Indiana University.
[20] Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R. and von Hagen,J.,1996, "Reforming Fiscal Institutions in Latin America: the Case for a National Fiscal Council", Mimeo, Inter-American Development Bank.
[21] Fatas,A. and Mihov,I,2003, "The case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion", Quarterly Journal of Economics ,CXVIII,1419-1448.
[22] Favero,C.A., and Monacelli,T.,2003,"Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from the U.S",CEPR Discussion Paper No.3887.
[23] Favero,C.A., and Monacelli,T.,2005,"Fiscal Policy Rules and Regime(In) Stability: Evidence from the U.S",Manuscript, IGIER.
[24] Forbes,K., and Rigobon, R., 1998, "No Contagion, Only Inderpendence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements", NBER, Working Paper# 7267.
[25] Forbes,K., and Rigobon,R., 2002, "No Contagion, Only Inderpendence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements", Journal of Finance,57(5),2223-2261.
[26] Gali,Jordi,1994, "Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability", European Economic Review, 38(1), 117-132.
[27] Gali,J.,2006,"Comment on Davig and Leeper's 'Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory'", Manuscript, CREI.
[28] Gang Gong. and Justin Yifu Lin."Deflationary Expansion: An Overshooting Perspective to the Recent Business Cycle in China",China Economic Review,2006,9, 1-21.
[29] Gavin, M. and Perotti, R.,1997, "Fiscal Policy in Latin America", in Bernanke, Ben and Rotemberg, Julio, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997,Cambridge,MA: MIT Press.
[30] Haggard, 1990, Pathways from Periphery: The Politics of Growth in the Newly Industrializing Countries , Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
[31] Haiyan Song.;Zinan Liu.and Jiang Ping.,2001,"Analyzing the determinants of China's Aggregate Investment in the Reform Period",China Economic Review,12, 227-242.
[32] Hamilton, J.D, and Flavin,M.A,1986,"on the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for empirical testing", American economic Review, 76,808-819.
[33] Henisz, W., 2000 , "The Institutional Environment for Economic Growth", Economics and Politics ,12,1-31.
[34] Kaminski, G., Reinhart, C., and Vegh, C.,2004, "When it Rains it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies", in Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff(eds), NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2004, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
[35] Kim, S.,2003,"Structural Shocks and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level in the Sticky Price Model", Macroeconomic Dynamics,7,759-782.
[36] Lane, Philip,2003, "The Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD" ,Journal of Public Economics, 87,2661-2675.
[37] Lane , P.R. and Tornell, A., 1996, "Power, Growth and the Voracity Effect", Journal of Economic Growth ,1,213-241.
[38] Lane , P.R. and Tornell, A., 1998, "Why aren't Latin American Savings Rates Procyclical? " Journal of Development Economics ,57,185-200.
[39] Leeper, E.M.,1991,"Equilibria under 'Active 'and 'Passive 'Monetary and Fiscal Policies", Journal of Monetary Economics, 27(1),129-147.
[40] Leeper, E.M.,1993,"The Policy Tango: Toward a Holistic View of Monetary and Fiscal Effects", Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, 78(4), 1-27.
[41] Leeper, E.M., 2006,"discussion on ' Identification and Price Determination with Taylor Rules: A Critical Review' by John Cochrane", Manuscript ,Indiana University.
[42] Loyo, E.,1997,"The Wealth Effects of Monetary Policy and Brazilian Inflation",Department of Economics ,Princeton University,Unpublished ,November.
[43] Lubik,Thomas A. and Frank Schorfheide.,2004,"Testing for Indeterminacy :An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy", American Economic Review,94,190-217.
[44] Lutkepohl , 2004, Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge University Press.
[45] Manasse,Paolo,2005, "The Puzzle of Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks ,Rules and Institutions, "IMF Working Paper.
[46] McKinnon, R.,1997 , "Market-Preserving Fiscal Federalism in the American Monetary Union", In Mairo, B. and T. Ter-Minassian(eds), Macroeconomic Dimensions of Public Finance, Routledge.
[47] Obstfeld, M., and Rogoff,K.,1983,"Speculative Hyperinflation in Maximizing Models: Can we Rule them Out?", Journal of Political Economy ,91,675-687.
[48] Obstfeld , M., and Rogoff,K.,1986,"Ruling out Divergent Speculative Bubbles", Journal of Monetary Economics ,17,349-362.
[49] Qian,Yingyi, and Barry R. Weingast,1997,"Federalism as a Commitment to Preserving Market Incentives", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(4),83-92.
[50] Qian,Yingyi, and G Roland, 1998,"Federalism and the Soft Budget Constraint", American Economic Review,77,265-284.
[51] Ravn,M.O., and Uhlig , H., 2002, " Notes on Adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the Frequency of Obervations ", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2),371-380.
[52] Rawski, T.G., 2001,"What is happening to China's GDP Statistics?",China Economic Review,12, 347-354.
[53] Rawski, T.G.,2002, "Measuring China's Recent GDP Growth", China Economic Quarterly ,2, 53-62.
[54] Roberds,W.,1991,"Implications of Expected Present Value Budget Balance: Application to Postwar U.S. Data", In: Hansen, Sargent (Eds), Rational Expectations Econometrics,Westview Press, Boulder,163-175.
[55] Rodrik, Dani, 1998, "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments" Journal of Political Economy, 106,997-1032.
[56] Sala, L., 2004,"The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Identifying Restrictions and Empirical Evidence", IGIER Working paper NO.257.
[57] Sargent, T.J. and Wallace, N.,1981, "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic", Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 5(Fall), 1-17.
[58] Sims, Christopher A.,1994,"A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy", Economic Theory 4,381-99.
[59] Sims, Christopher A.,2003,"Limits to Inflation Targeting", in Bernanke,Ben S., and Michael Woodford, eds., The Inflation-Targeting Debate, NBER Studies in Business Cycles Volume 32, Ch.7,283-310. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. http://sims.princeton.edu/yftp/Targeting/TargetingFiscalPaper.pdf.
[60] Sorensen, B., Wu, L., and Yosha,O.,2001, "Output Fluctuations and Fiscal Policy: U.S. State and Local Govenments 1978-1994, "European Economic Review,45,1271-1310.
[61] Stein, E., Talvi, E., and Gristani, A, 1999, "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance, " in James Poterba and Jurgen von Hagen eds., Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 103-134.
[62] Steuerle, C.E.,2006," Fiscal Policy from Kennedy to Reagan to G.W. Bush ",in The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy, ed. by R.W. Kopcke , G.M.B. Tootell, and R.K. Triest, 119-142.MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
[63] Talvi, E. and Vegh,C.,2000,"Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal policy", NBER, Working Paper #7499.
[64] Talvi, E. and Vegh,C.,2005,"Tax Base Variability and Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy", Journal of Development Economics, 78, 156-190.
[65] Taylor, J.B., 1993,"Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice", Carneige-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,39,195-214.
[66] Tornell, A. and Lane, P.R., 1998, " Are Windfalls a Curse? A non-representative agent model of the current account, " Journal of International Economics ,44,83-112.
[67] Tornell,A. and Lane,P.R.,1999 , "The Voractiy Effect", American Economic Review ,89,22-46.
[68] Von Hagen, J" rgen and Ian Harden,1995, "Budget Processes and Commitment to Fiscal Discipline", European Economic Review ,39,771-79.
[69] Weingast, Barry R.,1995,"The Economic Role of Political Institutions: Market-Preserving Federalism and Economic Development", Journal of Law and Economic Organization , 11,1-31.
[70] Woo, 2005, "The Behavior of Fiscal Policy: Cyclicality and Discretionary Fiscal Decisions", Working paper.
[71]Woodford,M.,1995,"Price-Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate",Carneige-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,43,1-46.
[72]Woodford,M.,1996,"Control of the Public Debt:A Requirement for Priced Stability?",NBER W.P 5684.
[73]Woodford,M.,1998,"A Cashless View of U.S.Inflation:A Comment",In Bernanke and Rotemberg,eds.,NBER Macroeconomics Annual Cambridge,Mass.,MIT Press,323-84.
[74]Woodford,M.,2001,"Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability",Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,33(3),669-728.
[75]Woodford,M.,2003,Interest and Price,Princeton:Princeton University Press.
[76]安体富、王海勇:《稳健的财政政策:含义、内容和意义》,《成人高教学刊》2005年第4期,第4-6页。
[77]北大中国经济研究中心宏观组:《正视通货紧缩压力,加快微观机制改革》,《经济研究》1999年第7期。
[78]蔡辉明(2004):《金融加速器与中国经济波动》,载于易纲编《预防通货紧缩和保持经济较快增长研究》(论文集),北京大学出版社,2005年。
[79]陈共:《稳健财政政策刍议》,《财政研究》2005年第1期。
[80]陈昆亭、龚六堂:《粘滞价格模型以及对中国经济的数值模拟-对基于RBC 模型的改进》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2006年第8期。
[81]樊纲:《通货紧缩、有效降价与经济波动-当前中国宏观经济若干特点的分析》,《经济研究》2003年第7期。
[82]樊纲:《克服信贷萎缩与银行体系改革-1998年宏观经济形势分析与1999年展望》,《经济研究》1999年第1期。
[83]樊明太:《金融结构及其对货币传导机制的影响》,《经济研究》2004年第7期。
[84]方红生:《一个中国式的超多边发债协议模型》,《经济研究》2002年第8期。
[85]方红生:《一个中国式的超多边发债协议模型》,《经济研究》2002年第8期。
[86]方红生:《一个中国通货膨胀史的可行框架:1981-2006》,工作论文,2007年。
[87]方红生:《价格水平决定的财政理论:一个实证综述》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2008年第5期。
[88]方红生、朱保华:《价格水平决定的财政理论在中国的适用性检验》,《管 理世界》2008年第3期。
[89]傅勇:《中国式分权、地方财政模式与公共物品供给:理论与实证研究》,复旦大学博士学位论文,2007年。
[90]傅勇、张晏:《中国式分权与财政支出结构偏向:为增长而竞争的代价》,《管理世界》2007年第3期,第4-12页。
[91]傅恒杰:《我国实行稳健财政政策的必要性及对策探讨》,《生产力研究》2005年第11期,第151-153页。
[92]高文博、张维达:《实施稳健财政政策的选择和对策》,《当代经济研究》2005年第7期,第61-64页。
[93]高培勇:《破冰而出的稳健财政政策-关于当前中国财政政策基本取向的分析》,《中国人民大学学报》,2005年第5期。
[94]龚六堂、邹恒甫:《财政政策与价格水平的决定》,《经济研究》2002年第2期。
[95]龚刚、林毅夫:《过度反应:中国经济“缩长”之解释》,《经济研究》2007年第4期,第53-66页。
[96]郭庆旺、贾俊雪:《中国潜在产出与产出缺口的估算》,《经济研究》2004年第5期,第31-39页。
[97]胡鞍钢:《应实行通货非膨胀政策》,中国经济时报,1999年3月26日。
蒋永庆:《中国的利率政策和通货紧缩》,载于易纲编《预防通货紧缩和保持经济较快增长研究》(论文集),北京大学出版社,2005年。
[98]贾康:《从积极到稳健-中国财政政策转型与展望》,《财政与税务》2005年第1期。
[99]金人庆:《实行稳健财政政策促进经济平稳较快发展》,《人民日报》,2004年12月7日。
[100]金人庆:《实行稳健的财政政策促进经济平衡较快发展》,《财政与税务》2005年第1期。
[101]李扬:《通货紧缩的宏观思考》,《光明同报》,1999年7月30日。
[102]李永友:《经济波动的财政政策稳定效应.基于中国1978年以来的经验数据的实证分析》,北京:《中国社会科学出版社》2007年版。
[103]林毅夫:《我国通货紧缩的成因与对策》,北大中国经济研究中心简报,1999年。
[104]马俊、刘亚平:《中国地方政府财政风险研究:“逆向软预算约束”理论的视角》,《学术研究》2005年第11期,第77-84页。
[105]马拴友、于红霞、陈启清:《国债与宏观经济的动态分析》,《经济研究》 2006年第4期。
[106]马兹晖:《中国地方财政收入与支出-面板数据因果性与协整研究》,《管理世界》2008年第3期,第40-48页。
[107]任若恩:《中国GDP统计水分有多大-评两个估计中国GDP数据研究的若干方法问题》,《经济学季刊》2002年第1期。
[108]沈利生:《我国潜在经济增长率变动趋势估计》,《数量经济技术经济研究》1999年第12期,第3-6页。
[109]田秋生:《中国通货紧缩问题研究》,科学出版社,2006年。
[110]汪同三、李涛:《中国通货紧缩的深层次原因》,《中国社会科学》2001年第6期。
[111]宛圆渊:《金融加速器、资产价格和货币政策》,北京大学中国经济研究中心硕士论文,2005年。
[112]王庆:《为什么选择升值而不是加息》,《上海证券报》,2008年4月7日。
[113]王少平:《宏观计量的若干前沿理论与应用》,南开大学出版社,2003年。
[114]王永钦、张晏、章元、陈钊、陆铭:《中国的大国发展道路-论分权式改革的得失》,《经济研究》2007年第1期,第4-16页。
[115]沃什:《货币理论与政策》,中译本,上海财经大学出版社,2004年。
[116]谢平、罗雄:《泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验》,《经济研究》,2002年第3期。
[117]许宪春:《中外经济学家对中国官方经济增长率的评论》,《清华大学中国经济研究中心研究动态》2002年第135期。
[118]殷克东、赵昕、战德坤:《McCallum规则在我国货币政策中的应用及启示》,《数量经济技术经济研究》2001年第12期。
[119]易纲、林明:《理解中国经济增长》,《中国社会科学》2003年第2期。
[120]张军、高远、傅勇、张弘:《中国为什么拥有了良好的基础设施?》,《经济研究》2007年第3期,第4-19页。
[121]张献国,2005,“关于稳健财政政策的若干思考”,《河北经贸大学学报》2005年第5期,第57-60页。
[122]张晏等:《标尺竞争在中国存在吗?-对我国地方政府公共支出相关性的研究》,复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济研究中心工作论文,2005年。
[123]张茵、万广华:《中国的经济周期:一个AD-AS模型的视角》,《世界经济文汇》2005年第2期。
[124]赵京兴:《消费需求分析》载《中国经济前景分析:1999年春季报告》, 社会科学文献出版社,1999年。
[125]赵振全、于震、刘淼:《金融加速器效应在中国存在吗?》,《经济研究》2007年第6期,第27-38页。
[126]周黎安:《中国地方官员的晋升锦标赛模式研究》,《经济研究》2007年第7期,第36-50页。
[127]周扬:《信贷市场结构与中国1996-2000的经济波动》,2001年北京大学中国经济研究中心硕士论文。
[128]周业安、章泉:《财政分权、经济增长和波动》,《管理世界》2008年第3期,第6-15页。
[129]朱民等:《中国通货紧缩的原因》载《成因与对策:透析中国的通货紧缩》,成思危,2002,经济科学出版社,第124-126页。