基于混沌的适应性企业战略协同演化与实现研究
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摘要
知识经济的迅猛发展、信息技术的日新月异、全球经济的市场化使企业经营环境变得越来越复杂、动态和不可预测。顾客需求千变万化，国际贸易和金融政策越来深刻影响到企业的日常运营。为了适应外部环境的变化，企业的功能、目标、结构等呈现出纷繁复杂的特点，企业与外部环境之间相互影响，关系呈现非线性的特点，往往是模糊而难以分辨的。企业未来的发展方向和变化程度变得越来越难以把握，外界的混沌使得企业自身无法保持平静和以往秩序，无法轻易地把握外部环境的变化规律和发展方向，从而对自身的生存与发展难以决断，这大大增加了管理的难度。企业要想适应外部环境，实现持续成长，就必须使自己随时处于远离均衡状态下的混沌边缘，进而进入更高的秩序。在这个过程中，如何进入混沌状态，如何找到在企业系统演化中发生分叉的条件和关键点，如何对突变条件和关键点施加影响引发突变等问题，如何帮助企业实现从混沌到耗散结构的跃迁等，都成为企业能否与外界环境互动、能否适应外部环境变化的关键。努力寻求更为有效的战略，使企业能更为有效地应对环境的不确定性、动态性、复杂性以及不可预测性，已经成为企业战略研究的关键问题。
论文借助混沌、突变、分形等复杂科学理论，以适应性企业战略协同演化过程为主线，分析在复杂动态环境下，企业作为开放性的系统随环境变化发生分叉、混沌和突变的演化过程规律；在企业混沌演化的临界点进行适时的决策，并实施全过程的反馈控制，以使企业不断打破平衡态，向新的高级有序态进化。基于混沌的适应性企业战略协同演化与实现研究能够解决企业在复杂动态环境难以做出正确决策的问题，将为企业如何由有序走向混沌、再由混沌进入更高秩序提供理论指导，使企业能够真正与环境互动，增强适应性，不断向高级有序演化。本文重点研究演化动力、演化过程、在演化的临界点如何决策，如何控制等，主要内容包括：
第一部分，适应性企业战略系统复杂性分析。首先对相关概念进行辨析，界定了企业适应性、适应性企业、适应性企业战略和适应性企业战略协同系统，然后，从战略环境的复杂性和战略协同系统的混沌性分析适应性企业战略系统的复杂性，为下文研究奠定分析基础和研究框架。
第二部分，基于混沌的适应性企业战略协同演化动力分析。首先通过对动力源——涨落的研究，从涨落的涵义、分类及微涨落的放大作用分析适应性企业动力的形成机理；基于利益相关者满意水平间的多目标群决策问题的迭代算法确定吸引子，然后通过企业利益相关者分析其对企业战略协同混沌吸引子的影响，在此基础上分析企业战略协同的动力作用机理。此部分研究为是适应性企业战略协同的实现提供动力。
第三部分，适应性企业战略协同演化过程分析。首先分析适应性企业战略协同演化的过程，即从有序→分叉→混沌→突变→跃迁→，然后分析战略协同演化过程中的分叉、混沌和突变，对混沌状态的定量分析为下文战略协同决策提供时机选择的依据。
第四部分，基于混沌的适应性企业战略协同决策机制。首先根据演化过程分析中对于混沌临界点的分析，确定战略协同的决策时机；分析决策权分配的影响因素，以降低决策熵为目的分配决策权，并分析不同管理情境下的决策权分配；最后基于混沌蚁群算法构建了战略协同决策方案选择的模型。战略协同决策机制是混沌演化的核心机制，是战略协同实现的关键。
第五部分，适应性企业战略协同效果评价。首先根据战略协同效果评价的目的与原则，在平衡计分卡的四维度基础上加入社会维度，构建了适应性企业战略协同效果评价的指标体系；然后，综合运用熵值法、ＡＨＰ和灰关联分析构建效果评价模型，并进行实例分析。战略协同效果评价是检验决策的实施效果，为了更好的反馈控制。
第六部分，基于混沌的适应性企业战略协同控制机制。首先研究混沌的类别、反馈控制机理，驱动——响应模式的混沌同步；然后通过分析耗散结构、涌现与超循环研究分形管理。反馈控制是适应性企业实现战略协同的必要手段，能够真正促进系统的演化跃迁。
论文借鉴混沌科学、管理科学的相关理论，采用定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法，探寻了适应性企业战略协同演化的过程与实现，丰富并拓展了适应性企业战略这一研究领域的方法和视角，为企业的战略制定及决策执行过程提供了有益借鉴。
Along with the rapid developments in knowledge economy, dramatic changes ininformational technologies and global economy marketization, there have been more andmore unpredictable, dynamic and uncertain factors in the enterprises’ business andoperational environments. Changes in the customers’ needs and policies for the internationaltrade and finance have great impacts on the enterprises’ normal operations. In order to adaptto the changes in the external environments, the functions, goals, structures and so on presentcomplicated features and the interrelationship between the enterprise and its externalenvironment is linear, obscure and hard to distinguish. The developing trends of the enterpriseis getting more and more difficult to grasp and the external chaos make it hard for theenterprise to maintain the enterprise’s self-balance and previous regulations, and hardly keepup with the changes in regulations and developing directions with the external environments,thereby it is difficult to for an enterprise to make survival and further developments decisions,which increases the difficult level for the management. If an enterprise wants to adapt to theexternal environments and maintain sustainable developments, it must always stay far awayfrom state of equilibrium, but maintain itself in the chaotic edge, and then enter a higherregulation state. During this progress, the key factors, whether the enterprise can adapt andinteract with the external environments, include how to enter the chaotic state, how to find thedivaricating conditions and critical points in the evolution of the enterprise’s system, how tocause the mutation by influencing the mutation condition and critical points, how to help theenterprise make the transactions from chaos to dissipative structures and etc.. Making effortsto search for a more effective strategy and enabling the enterprise to cope with environmentaluncertainty, dynamics, complexity and unpredictability, have become the critical issues in theenterprise strategy research field.
This paper analyzes the evolution process patterns of the enterprise, as an open system,when the divarication, chaos and mutation happens as the external environments of theenterprise changes, under the complex and dynamic environments, with the help of complexscientific theories including chaos, mutation, and fraction and so on. This dissertation alsoexplores the proper decision making at the critical point in the chaotic evolution, whileimplement the feedback control in the whole process, when the enterprise evolutes toward a new and advanced order state by breaking the equilibrium constantly. This dissertationfocuses on evolution dynamics, evolution process, decision-making at the critical point of theevolution, how to control and etc., presenting as follows:
Part I: Complexity Analysis on the Strategic System of the Adaptive Enterprise. In thispart, the related concepts have been discriminated, and the concepts including enterpriseadaptation, adaptive enterprise, strategy for the adaptive enterprise and strategic system forthe adaptive enterprise, have been defined. Then the complexity of the strategic synergysystem for the adaptive enterprise has been analyzed through the analysis of the complexity ofthe strategic environments and the chaos of the strategic system, which establishes thefoundation for the later research.
Part II: Dynamic Analysis on the Evolution of Strategic Synergy for the AdaptiveEnterprise Based on Chaos. First, through the analysis of the dynamic source—the researchon the fluctuation, from the meaning, classification and the role of the micro fluctuationenlargement, the formation mechanism of the dynamics of the adaptive enterprise, is analyzed.Then the impacts of the enterprise stakeholders on the chaotic attractors of the evolution ofstrategic synergy are explored, to determine the attractors based on the iteration algorithm ofthe multi-objective group decision making problem between the stakeholders’ satisfactionlevels, on the basis of which the dynamic mechanism of the enterprise strategy synergy isanalyzed. The research in this part provides dynamics to the implementation of the adaptiveenterprise strategy synergy.
Part III: Process Analysis for the Evolution of Strategic Synergy for the AdaptiveEnterprise. The process of the evolution of strategic synergy for the adaptive enterprise isfirstly defined as from order→divarication→chaos→mutation→transaction→, and then the divarication, chaos and mutation occurred during the synergyevolution process are further analyzed, which provide basis for decision making. The logicalstructure for the later parts is also established based on the key issues in the implementation ofthe strategic synergy evolution of the adaptive enterprise identified by processing law.
Part IV: Decision-Making Mechanism for Evolution of Strategic Synergy for theAdaptive Enterprise Based on Chaos. The critical points are analyzed according to theevolutionary process analysis and the timing for the decision making is determined. Theeffective factors for the decision-making authority allocation and the authority allocations under different managerial situations are stated and the decision making authority is allocatedto reduce the decision-making entropy. The decision-making scheme selection model for thestrategic synergy is established based on chaos Ant Colony optimization algorithm. Thedecision-making mechanism is core mechanism in the chaotic evolution and the key to theimplementation of the strategic synergy.
Part V: Effects Evaluation for Evolution of Strategic Synergy for the Adaptive Enterprise.First the purposes and principles of the effects evaluation are studied, and then the socialdimension is introduced based on the four dimensions of the balance scorecard, which helpsset up the index system for the effects evaluation for strategic synergy evolution for theadaptive enterprise. The effects evaluation is carried out with the applications of entropy, AHPand grey correlation analysis and the case analysis is also put forward. The effects evaluationfor the strategic synergy is for the test of the execution of the decisions and for betterfeedback control and monitor.
Part VI: Control and Monitor Mechanism for Strategic Synergy Evolution for theAdaptive Enterprise Based on Chaos. The classifications and feedback control mechanism areexplored at the beginning and then the drive—chaos synchronization response is studied.Fractal management is practiced through the analysis of dissipative structure, springing upand supercirculation. The feedback control is necessary for the adaptive enterprise to achievethe strategic synergy, which truly promote transactions of the system.
This dissertation refers to the related theories from the science of chaos and science ofmanagement, combines the theoretical analyses and the empirical analysis, explores theprocess and implementation of the strategic synergy evolution for the adaptive enterprise,enriches and expands the methods and perspectives in the research field of the adaptiveenterprise strategy and provides a useful reference to the formulation of the strategy and theexecution of the decisions for the enterprise.
论文借助混沌、突变、分形等复杂科学理论，以适应性企业战略协同演化过程为主线，分析在复杂动态环境下，企业作为开放性的系统随环境变化发生分叉、混沌和突变的演化过程规律；在企业混沌演化的临界点进行适时的决策，并实施全过程的反馈控制，以使企业不断打破平衡态，向新的高级有序态进化。基于混沌的适应性企业战略协同演化与实现研究能够解决企业在复杂动态环境难以做出正确决策的问题，将为企业如何由有序走向混沌、再由混沌进入更高秩序提供理论指导，使企业能够真正与环境互动，增强适应性，不断向高级有序演化。本文重点研究演化动力、演化过程、在演化的临界点如何决策，如何控制等，主要内容包括：
第一部分，适应性企业战略系统复杂性分析。首先对相关概念进行辨析，界定了企业适应性、适应性企业、适应性企业战略和适应性企业战略协同系统，然后，从战略环境的复杂性和战略协同系统的混沌性分析适应性企业战略系统的复杂性，为下文研究奠定分析基础和研究框架。
第二部分，基于混沌的适应性企业战略协同演化动力分析。首先通过对动力源——涨落的研究，从涨落的涵义、分类及微涨落的放大作用分析适应性企业动力的形成机理；基于利益相关者满意水平间的多目标群决策问题的迭代算法确定吸引子，然后通过企业利益相关者分析其对企业战略协同混沌吸引子的影响，在此基础上分析企业战略协同的动力作用机理。此部分研究为是适应性企业战略协同的实现提供动力。
第三部分，适应性企业战略协同演化过程分析。首先分析适应性企业战略协同演化的过程，即从有序→分叉→混沌→突变→跃迁→，然后分析战略协同演化过程中的分叉、混沌和突变，对混沌状态的定量分析为下文战略协同决策提供时机选择的依据。
第四部分，基于混沌的适应性企业战略协同决策机制。首先根据演化过程分析中对于混沌临界点的分析，确定战略协同的决策时机；分析决策权分配的影响因素，以降低决策熵为目的分配决策权，并分析不同管理情境下的决策权分配；最后基于混沌蚁群算法构建了战略协同决策方案选择的模型。战略协同决策机制是混沌演化的核心机制，是战略协同实现的关键。
第五部分，适应性企业战略协同效果评价。首先根据战略协同效果评价的目的与原则，在平衡计分卡的四维度基础上加入社会维度，构建了适应性企业战略协同效果评价的指标体系；然后，综合运用熵值法、ＡＨＰ和灰关联分析构建效果评价模型，并进行实例分析。战略协同效果评价是检验决策的实施效果，为了更好的反馈控制。
第六部分，基于混沌的适应性企业战略协同控制机制。首先研究混沌的类别、反馈控制机理，驱动——响应模式的混沌同步；然后通过分析耗散结构、涌现与超循环研究分形管理。反馈控制是适应性企业实现战略协同的必要手段，能够真正促进系统的演化跃迁。
论文借鉴混沌科学、管理科学的相关理论，采用定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法，探寻了适应性企业战略协同演化的过程与实现，丰富并拓展了适应性企业战略这一研究领域的方法和视角，为企业的战略制定及决策执行过程提供了有益借鉴。
Along with the rapid developments in knowledge economy, dramatic changes ininformational technologies and global economy marketization, there have been more andmore unpredictable, dynamic and uncertain factors in the enterprises’ business andoperational environments. Changes in the customers’ needs and policies for the internationaltrade and finance have great impacts on the enterprises’ normal operations. In order to adaptto the changes in the external environments, the functions, goals, structures and so on presentcomplicated features and the interrelationship between the enterprise and its externalenvironment is linear, obscure and hard to distinguish. The developing trends of the enterpriseis getting more and more difficult to grasp and the external chaos make it hard for theenterprise to maintain the enterprise’s self-balance and previous regulations, and hardly keepup with the changes in regulations and developing directions with the external environments,thereby it is difficult to for an enterprise to make survival and further developments decisions,which increases the difficult level for the management. If an enterprise wants to adapt to theexternal environments and maintain sustainable developments, it must always stay far awayfrom state of equilibrium, but maintain itself in the chaotic edge, and then enter a higherregulation state. During this progress, the key factors, whether the enterprise can adapt andinteract with the external environments, include how to enter the chaotic state, how to find thedivaricating conditions and critical points in the evolution of the enterprise’s system, how tocause the mutation by influencing the mutation condition and critical points, how to help theenterprise make the transactions from chaos to dissipative structures and etc.. Making effortsto search for a more effective strategy and enabling the enterprise to cope with environmentaluncertainty, dynamics, complexity and unpredictability, have become the critical issues in theenterprise strategy research field.
This paper analyzes the evolution process patterns of the enterprise, as an open system,when the divarication, chaos and mutation happens as the external environments of theenterprise changes, under the complex and dynamic environments, with the help of complexscientific theories including chaos, mutation, and fraction and so on. This dissertation alsoexplores the proper decision making at the critical point in the chaotic evolution, whileimplement the feedback control in the whole process, when the enterprise evolutes toward a new and advanced order state by breaking the equilibrium constantly. This dissertationfocuses on evolution dynamics, evolution process, decision-making at the critical point of theevolution, how to control and etc., presenting as follows:
Part I: Complexity Analysis on the Strategic System of the Adaptive Enterprise. In thispart, the related concepts have been discriminated, and the concepts including enterpriseadaptation, adaptive enterprise, strategy for the adaptive enterprise and strategic system forthe adaptive enterprise, have been defined. Then the complexity of the strategic synergysystem for the adaptive enterprise has been analyzed through the analysis of the complexity ofthe strategic environments and the chaos of the strategic system, which establishes thefoundation for the later research.
Part II: Dynamic Analysis on the Evolution of Strategic Synergy for the AdaptiveEnterprise Based on Chaos. First, through the analysis of the dynamic source—the researchon the fluctuation, from the meaning, classification and the role of the micro fluctuationenlargement, the formation mechanism of the dynamics of the adaptive enterprise, is analyzed.Then the impacts of the enterprise stakeholders on the chaotic attractors of the evolution ofstrategic synergy are explored, to determine the attractors based on the iteration algorithm ofthe multi-objective group decision making problem between the stakeholders’ satisfactionlevels, on the basis of which the dynamic mechanism of the enterprise strategy synergy isanalyzed. The research in this part provides dynamics to the implementation of the adaptiveenterprise strategy synergy.
Part III: Process Analysis for the Evolution of Strategic Synergy for the AdaptiveEnterprise. The process of the evolution of strategic synergy for the adaptive enterprise isfirstly defined as from order→divarication→chaos→mutation→transaction→, and then the divarication, chaos and mutation occurred during the synergyevolution process are further analyzed, which provide basis for decision making. The logicalstructure for the later parts is also established based on the key issues in the implementation ofthe strategic synergy evolution of the adaptive enterprise identified by processing law.
Part IV: Decision-Making Mechanism for Evolution of Strategic Synergy for theAdaptive Enterprise Based on Chaos. The critical points are analyzed according to theevolutionary process analysis and the timing for the decision making is determined. Theeffective factors for the decision-making authority allocation and the authority allocations under different managerial situations are stated and the decision making authority is allocatedto reduce the decision-making entropy. The decision-making scheme selection model for thestrategic synergy is established based on chaos Ant Colony optimization algorithm. Thedecision-making mechanism is core mechanism in the chaotic evolution and the key to theimplementation of the strategic synergy.
Part V: Effects Evaluation for Evolution of Strategic Synergy for the Adaptive Enterprise.First the purposes and principles of the effects evaluation are studied, and then the socialdimension is introduced based on the four dimensions of the balance scorecard, which helpsset up the index system for the effects evaluation for strategic synergy evolution for theadaptive enterprise. The effects evaluation is carried out with the applications of entropy, AHPand grey correlation analysis and the case analysis is also put forward. The effects evaluationfor the strategic synergy is for the test of the execution of the decisions and for betterfeedback control and monitor.
Part VI: Control and Monitor Mechanism for Strategic Synergy Evolution for theAdaptive Enterprise Based on Chaos. The classifications and feedback control mechanism areexplored at the beginning and then the drive—chaos synchronization response is studied.Fractal management is practiced through the analysis of dissipative structure, springing upand supercirculation. The feedback control is necessary for the adaptive enterprise to achievethe strategic synergy, which truly promote transactions of the system.
This dissertation refers to the related theories from the science of chaos and science ofmanagement, combines the theoretical analyses and the empirical analysis, explores theprocess and implementation of the strategic synergy evolution for the adaptive enterprise,enriches and expands the methods and perspectives in the research field of the adaptiveenterprise strategy and provides a useful reference to the formulation of the strategy and theexecution of the decisions for the enterprise.
引文
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