中国地区间能源消费差异的实证研究
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摘要
人类社会的不断进步与各种能源的利用是不可分离的。伴随着人类对各种能源开发和利用,能源问题日益显现。能源枯竭以及在能源开发利用过程中所带来的各种环境问题,已经成为困扰全球的重大焦点问题。而在全球应对气候变化,降低二氧化碳排放的呼声越来越高涨的时候,中国能源消费总量的激增更是受到了全球的关注。因此降低能源消费强度不仅是中国自身保持可持续发展的需要,同时也是中国承担起应对全球气候变化的一种责任和义务,而研究能源消费强度的影响因素就显得十分有意义和必要。
首先,本文在对中国地区能源消费强度及其包含经济发展水平,经济增长总量、产业结构、工业结构、能源结构、城市化水平、外商直接投资、出口贸易、能源价格变动在内的经济因素,技术创新(水平)表示的技术因素以及政策体制因素、人口因素在内的众多影响因素的现状进行了分析的基础上,再结合考虑了能源价格变动对技术创新(进步)的诱致作用以及技术创新(进步)的“反弹效应”(在模型中添加能源价格变动与技术创新(进步)的交互项以及技术创新(进步)水平变量的二次项),建立了地区能源消费强度影响因素的回归模型,并通过回归分析探讨了影响地区能源消费强度的各种因素的影响作用。
其次,用逐步回归方法,对模型进行逐步回归,并最终确定用于分解的回归模型。并且将技术创新(进步)因素分别用专利授权数、科技活动经费内部支出、科技活动人员数等指标进行变量替换,检验了分解模型的稳健性。在分析中,发现经济发展水平、产业结构、城市化水平、外商直接投资、能源价格变动、技术创新(进步)以及政策体制因素是影响中国能源消费的主要影响因素。
再次,在分地区能源消费强度影响因素进行回归的基础上,采用Blinder-Oaxaca分解方法对地区间能源消费强度差异的影响因素进行分解。在分地区回归时,我们发现无论采用何种技术创新(进步)的指标,对于高能耗地区和低能耗地区,虽然除了城市化水平之外的各种影响因素的影响水平有所差异,但这些影响因素对于不同地区的能源消费强度的影响都是显著的。至于城市化水平,在低能耗地区,其对地区能源消费强度的影响是不显著的,而在高能耗地区,城市化水平对于地区能源消费强度的影响十分显著,而且呈现出随着城市化水平的提高,能源消费强度有一种提高的趋势,这一方面反映了城镇人口的人均能源消费要远远高于农村人口的人均能源消费,另一方面,也可以提示中国,尤其是高能耗地区在城市化进程中应该更加关注城市化对于能源消费强度降低所带来的压力与问题。此外,我们采用专利授权数来表示技术创新(进步)水平时,技术因素一次项和二次项对高能耗地区能源消费强度的影响均显著;但在用科技活动经费来技术创新(进步)水平时,二次项变得不显著;而在用科技活动人员来表示技术创新(进步)水平时,无论是一次项还是二次项对于高能耗地区能源消费强度的影响均不显著,这说明在高耗能地区的科技投入产出机制存在很大问题。
至于地区间能源消费差异影响因素的分解,我们发现技术创新(进步)因素用不同指标的变量替换,整体的分解结果基本是一致的,即在影响地区间能源消费强度差异的因素中,经济发展水平、FDI以及技术创新(进步)是最主要也是最显著的三个因素。在三种情形下,经济因素是最主要的因素,其次是技术因素,再次是政策制度因素。不同的是采用不同指标对于具体某一个因素的贡献率水平有所差异,我们发现采用科技活动经费支出的情形与采用其他两个指标的情形差异略大。在采用科技活动经费支出的情形下,经济发展水平的贡献率和所有经济因素的总和贡献率明显低于采用专利授权数和科技活动人员的情形,技术创新(进步)的贡献率(也即技术因素的总和贡献率)又明显高于用其他两个指标的情形。
最后,对中国地区降低能源消费强度以及缩小地区间能源消费差异提出相应的政策建议。调整产业结构,促进经济发展。适度推进城市化进程,鼓励可持续消费,积极发展可持续交通与可持续建筑。扩大外资引进规模,提高外资引进质量。积极推进能源价格的形成和调整机制改革。稳步提高科技投入比例,大力推进节能领域的自主创新,加快可再生能源与清洁能源的研究与开发。完善政策节能减排的财政投入和财政补助机制,完善节能产品的政府采购机制,推进税收制度改革以及加快各种能源相关政策法律的制定,加强政策法律的执行力度,强化政策法律执行的监督。
The development of our society is closely related to the use of all kinds of energies. With our development and utilization of various energies, the problem of energy becomes increasingly obvious. The shortage of energy and various environmental problems caused by the development and utilization of energies have become the most important focus of the world. The fact of the increasing amount of the usage of energy of china draw the world’s attention, while there is an increasing demand for reducing the emission of CO2 and responding to climate change.
So reducing the energy consumption intensity is not only the demand of china’s own sustainable development, but also the china’s responsibility of dealing with climate change. It is also meaningful and necessary to research on the factors influencing the energy consumption intensity.
Firstly, we construction the regression model of the factors influencing the energy consumption intensity to discuss the effects of all the factors influencing the energy intensity based on the induced technological innovation of energy price and the“rebound effect”of technological innovation, after describing the situations of energy intensity and all the factors influencing the energy intensity, including the level of economy development, GDP, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, urbanization, FDI, export, energy price, technological innovation as well as the policy and system factor etc.
Secondly, we identified the final model for decomposition with step-wise regression analysis. What’s more, we use the number of patents authorized, the expenditures input in scientific and technological activities (internal expenditures) and the population engaged in scientific and technological activities to describe the factor of technological innovation for the stability testing. After the analysis, we draw the conclusion that the level of economic development, industrial structure, urbanization, FDI, energy price, technological innovation and the policy and system factor are the most significant factors.
Thirdly, we use the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition for liner regression model to analyze the factors influencing the gap of energy intensity between different regions on the basis of the regression of high-energy-consumption areas and low-energy-consumption areas. We find the fact that all the factors have significant influence on the energy intensity in high-energy-consumption areas and low-energy-consumption areas on the condition of deferent indications of technological innovation although the degree of the impact except the urbanization are deferent in high-energy-consumption areas and low-energy-consumption areas. As for urbanization, its influence on energy intensity at low-energy-consumption areas is not significant, but it does be significant at high-energy-consumption areas. Furthermore, the energy intensity will increase with the improvement of urbanization at high-energy-consumption areas. On the one hand, this is because the energy intensity per capita of people at urban area is much higher than that of people at rural area. On the other hand, it is also the problem indication of urbanization in china especially at high-energy-consumption areas. Besides, the linear term and quadratic term of the technological innovation factor are both significant under the condition of patents authorized. But the quadratic term become insignificant in the case of the expenditures input in scientific and technological activities (internal expenditures). Not only the linear term but also the quadratic term is both not significant in the case of the population engaged in scientific and technological activities. All these above underline there are big problems in the science and technology input and output mechanism at high-energy-consumption areas.
As to the decomposition of factors influencing the energy intensity at deferent areas, we find the total decompositions are mostly similar on the condition of deferent indications of technological innovation and the level of economic development , FDI and technological innovation are the most important factors of all influencing the gap in energy intensity between regions. According to the types of the factors, economic one is the most important, and then is the technological factor and the last is the political and systematical ones. The difference is the degree of contribution as to a certain factor in the case of deferent indications of technological innovation. We find that the decomposition in the situation of the expenditures input in scientific and technological activities (internal expenditures) are some kind of different from the other two situations.
In the situation of the expenditures input in scientific and technological activities (internal expenditures), the contribution of economic development and the total contribution of economic factors are much smaller than in the other two situation while the contribution of technological innovation is much higher than in the other two situation.
Lastly, we put forward some policy suggestions to reduce the energy consumption intensity in China and narrow the gap of energy intensity between high-energy-consumption areas and low-energy-consumption areas. We should adjust the industrial structure and promote economic development. During the process of promoting the urbanization on a fairly high speed, the government should encourage sustainable consumption and actively develop sustainable traffic and sustainable construction. According to FDI, we should not only expand the scale of foreign investment, but also improve the quality of foreign investment. We should actively promote the reform of energy price’s formation and adjustment mechanism. As for technological innovation, the input on science and technology should be increased steadily and the innovation of energy conservation must be promoted energetically .what’s more, the research and development of renewable energy and clean energy have to be accelerated. Furthermore, the government should also improve and perfect the policy of fiscal investment and financial subsidies on energy conservation and improve the government procurement system for energy-saving products. In the addition, taxation system reform should be improved and the government must accelerate the formulation of all kinds of energy relevant laws and policies as well as strengthen the supervision of the law’s enforcement.
首先,本文在对中国地区能源消费强度及其包含经济发展水平,经济增长总量、产业结构、工业结构、能源结构、城市化水平、外商直接投资、出口贸易、能源价格变动在内的经济因素,技术创新(水平)表示的技术因素以及政策体制因素、人口因素在内的众多影响因素的现状进行了分析的基础上,再结合考虑了能源价格变动对技术创新(进步)的诱致作用以及技术创新(进步)的“反弹效应”(在模型中添加能源价格变动与技术创新(进步)的交互项以及技术创新(进步)水平变量的二次项),建立了地区能源消费强度影响因素的回归模型,并通过回归分析探讨了影响地区能源消费强度的各种因素的影响作用。
其次,用逐步回归方法,对模型进行逐步回归,并最终确定用于分解的回归模型。并且将技术创新(进步)因素分别用专利授权数、科技活动经费内部支出、科技活动人员数等指标进行变量替换,检验了分解模型的稳健性。在分析中,发现经济发展水平、产业结构、城市化水平、外商直接投资、能源价格变动、技术创新(进步)以及政策体制因素是影响中国能源消费的主要影响因素。
再次,在分地区能源消费强度影响因素进行回归的基础上,采用Blinder-Oaxaca分解方法对地区间能源消费强度差异的影响因素进行分解。在分地区回归时,我们发现无论采用何种技术创新(进步)的指标,对于高能耗地区和低能耗地区,虽然除了城市化水平之外的各种影响因素的影响水平有所差异,但这些影响因素对于不同地区的能源消费强度的影响都是显著的。至于城市化水平,在低能耗地区,其对地区能源消费强度的影响是不显著的,而在高能耗地区,城市化水平对于地区能源消费强度的影响十分显著,而且呈现出随着城市化水平的提高,能源消费强度有一种提高的趋势,这一方面反映了城镇人口的人均能源消费要远远高于农村人口的人均能源消费,另一方面,也可以提示中国,尤其是高能耗地区在城市化进程中应该更加关注城市化对于能源消费强度降低所带来的压力与问题。此外,我们采用专利授权数来表示技术创新(进步)水平时,技术因素一次项和二次项对高能耗地区能源消费强度的影响均显著;但在用科技活动经费来技术创新(进步)水平时,二次项变得不显著;而在用科技活动人员来表示技术创新(进步)水平时,无论是一次项还是二次项对于高能耗地区能源消费强度的影响均不显著,这说明在高耗能地区的科技投入产出机制存在很大问题。
至于地区间能源消费差异影响因素的分解,我们发现技术创新(进步)因素用不同指标的变量替换,整体的分解结果基本是一致的,即在影响地区间能源消费强度差异的因素中,经济发展水平、FDI以及技术创新(进步)是最主要也是最显著的三个因素。在三种情形下,经济因素是最主要的因素,其次是技术因素,再次是政策制度因素。不同的是采用不同指标对于具体某一个因素的贡献率水平有所差异,我们发现采用科技活动经费支出的情形与采用其他两个指标的情形差异略大。在采用科技活动经费支出的情形下,经济发展水平的贡献率和所有经济因素的总和贡献率明显低于采用专利授权数和科技活动人员的情形,技术创新(进步)的贡献率(也即技术因素的总和贡献率)又明显高于用其他两个指标的情形。
最后,对中国地区降低能源消费强度以及缩小地区间能源消费差异提出相应的政策建议。调整产业结构,促进经济发展。适度推进城市化进程,鼓励可持续消费,积极发展可持续交通与可持续建筑。扩大外资引进规模,提高外资引进质量。积极推进能源价格的形成和调整机制改革。稳步提高科技投入比例,大力推进节能领域的自主创新,加快可再生能源与清洁能源的研究与开发。完善政策节能减排的财政投入和财政补助机制,完善节能产品的政府采购机制,推进税收制度改革以及加快各种能源相关政策法律的制定,加强政策法律的执行力度,强化政策法律执行的监督。
The development of our society is closely related to the use of all kinds of energies. With our development and utilization of various energies, the problem of energy becomes increasingly obvious. The shortage of energy and various environmental problems caused by the development and utilization of energies have become the most important focus of the world. The fact of the increasing amount of the usage of energy of china draw the world’s attention, while there is an increasing demand for reducing the emission of CO2 and responding to climate change.
So reducing the energy consumption intensity is not only the demand of china’s own sustainable development, but also the china’s responsibility of dealing with climate change. It is also meaningful and necessary to research on the factors influencing the energy consumption intensity.
Firstly, we construction the regression model of the factors influencing the energy consumption intensity to discuss the effects of all the factors influencing the energy intensity based on the induced technological innovation of energy price and the“rebound effect”of technological innovation, after describing the situations of energy intensity and all the factors influencing the energy intensity, including the level of economy development, GDP, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, urbanization, FDI, export, energy price, technological innovation as well as the policy and system factor etc.
Secondly, we identified the final model for decomposition with step-wise regression analysis. What’s more, we use the number of patents authorized, the expenditures input in scientific and technological activities (internal expenditures) and the population engaged in scientific and technological activities to describe the factor of technological innovation for the stability testing. After the analysis, we draw the conclusion that the level of economic development, industrial structure, urbanization, FDI, energy price, technological innovation and the policy and system factor are the most significant factors.
Thirdly, we use the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition for liner regression model to analyze the factors influencing the gap of energy intensity between different regions on the basis of the regression of high-energy-consumption areas and low-energy-consumption areas. We find the fact that all the factors have significant influence on the energy intensity in high-energy-consumption areas and low-energy-consumption areas on the condition of deferent indications of technological innovation although the degree of the impact except the urbanization are deferent in high-energy-consumption areas and low-energy-consumption areas. As for urbanization, its influence on energy intensity at low-energy-consumption areas is not significant, but it does be significant at high-energy-consumption areas. Furthermore, the energy intensity will increase with the improvement of urbanization at high-energy-consumption areas. On the one hand, this is because the energy intensity per capita of people at urban area is much higher than that of people at rural area. On the other hand, it is also the problem indication of urbanization in china especially at high-energy-consumption areas. Besides, the linear term and quadratic term of the technological innovation factor are both significant under the condition of patents authorized. But the quadratic term become insignificant in the case of the expenditures input in scientific and technological activities (internal expenditures). Not only the linear term but also the quadratic term is both not significant in the case of the population engaged in scientific and technological activities. All these above underline there are big problems in the science and technology input and output mechanism at high-energy-consumption areas.
As to the decomposition of factors influencing the energy intensity at deferent areas, we find the total decompositions are mostly similar on the condition of deferent indications of technological innovation and the level of economic development , FDI and technological innovation are the most important factors of all influencing the gap in energy intensity between regions. According to the types of the factors, economic one is the most important, and then is the technological factor and the last is the political and systematical ones. The difference is the degree of contribution as to a certain factor in the case of deferent indications of technological innovation. We find that the decomposition in the situation of the expenditures input in scientific and technological activities (internal expenditures) are some kind of different from the other two situations.
In the situation of the expenditures input in scientific and technological activities (internal expenditures), the contribution of economic development and the total contribution of economic factors are much smaller than in the other two situation while the contribution of technological innovation is much higher than in the other two situation.
Lastly, we put forward some policy suggestions to reduce the energy consumption intensity in China and narrow the gap of energy intensity between high-energy-consumption areas and low-energy-consumption areas. We should adjust the industrial structure and promote economic development. During the process of promoting the urbanization on a fairly high speed, the government should encourage sustainable consumption and actively develop sustainable traffic and sustainable construction. According to FDI, we should not only expand the scale of foreign investment, but also improve the quality of foreign investment. We should actively promote the reform of energy price’s formation and adjustment mechanism. As for technological innovation, the input on science and technology should be increased steadily and the innovation of energy conservation must be promoted energetically .what’s more, the research and development of renewable energy and clean energy have to be accelerated. Furthermore, the government should also improve and perfect the policy of fiscal investment and financial subsidies on energy conservation and improve the government procurement system for energy-saving products. In the addition, taxation system reform should be improved and the government must accelerate the formulation of all kinds of energy relevant laws and policies as well as strengthen the supervision of the law’s enforcement.
引文
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