东北地区流域径流对气候变化与人类活动的响应特征研究
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摘要
水文序列的时空分布变化受到气候变化与人类活动的共同影响。科学认识已发生的气候变化及人类活动对径流的影响,有助于正确认识变化环境下水循环响应机制,预估未来径流对气候变化与人类活动的响应,更好的开展流域水资源的规划、管理和配置。基于已有研究,本文以东北地区七个样本流域为研究对象,采用“先初步确定,后反向验证”的研究思路确定径流的“天然阶段”；在此基础上应用弹性系数法与水文模拟法定量估算近五十年来人类活动与气候变化对径流影响的贡献量,分析径流对气候变化以及人类活动的响应特征；采用GCMs输出结果耦合流域水文模拟的方法进行考虑人类活动影响的未来径流趋势预估。主要内容及研究成果如下：
(1)基于长期的气象和水文观测资料,研究东北地区七个样本流域水循环要素的时空演变规律。采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法、线性回归检验法Mann-Whitney-Pettitt突变点分析方法以及累积双曲线法,开展气象水文要素的趋势性检验和突变点诊断研究。在此基础上揭示水循环要素的趋势性与阶段性特征,定性辨识气候变化和人类活动因素对径流的影响。
(2)结合流域的DEM、土壤、土地利用及气象水文数据,采用SWAT模型对七个样本流域的水循环过程进行了模拟。在总结现有研究的基础上采用以水量平衡为控制条件的多站点多变量模型率定方法,从上游控制站到下游控制站逐级率定模型参数,模拟样本流域的径流过程。模型评价结果表明SWAT模型在样本流域的模拟效果较好,可以用于定量分析气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响。
(3)针对以往“天然阶段”与“天然径流”合理性无法验证的缺陷,提出了辨识河川径流“自然状态”的双累积曲线法,使“天然阶段”的划分更加合理。该方法依据人类活动对径流影响程度的变化特征,首先采用统计学的突变点分析方法确定人类活动影响显著时期；接着采用最早期的水文气象资料率定水文模型并还原流域的天然径流；然后绘制“降水-径流”与“降水-天然径流”双累积曲线；最后根据两条双累积曲线的分离时间及流域的人类活动影响信息验证“天然阶段”与“天然径流”的合理性。
(4)采用弹性系数法与水文模拟法定量分析了样本流域气候变化与人类活动对径流影响的贡献量。结果表明：相对于天然阶段,在整个人类活动影响阶段,两种计算方法得到的气候变化与人类活动对径流影响的贡献量在大部分流域取得了比较一致的结果。选取的样本流域中气候变化与人类活动共同对径流产生影响,人类活动对径流的减少起到主导作用。
(5)详细分析了各样本流域径流对年降水和年平均气温变化的敏感性,以及各样本流域在不同年代、不同年降雨类型下人类活动对径流的影响特征。结果表明：样本流域对降水变化的敏感性远远大于对温度变化的敏感性；随着社会经济的发展,人类活动对径流的影响程度越来越剧烈；修建大型水库的流域,水利工程的调蓄作用严重地改变了径流的丰枯过程；在人类活动影响较小的森林流域,径流的改变很小；人类活动对径流的影响具有区域化特征,不同降水类型下,人类活动对径流的改变程度不尽相同。
(6)针对未来径流变化预测的研究只考虑了气候变化影响,并没有考虑到人类活动影响或者将其影响参数化的问题,在合理划分天然阶段的基础上采用修正系数法进行考虑人类活动影响的水资源预测研究,为其它流域的相关研究提供参考。该方法首先根据实测降水、径流及还原的“天然径流”率定出人类活动对累积径流的影响系数；然后进行GCMs输出数据的区域化处理,并将降尺度的数据输入到水文模型模拟未来的“天然径流”；最后根据修正公式预估考虑人类活动影响的未来径流状况。
Evaluation of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff are important for water resources planning, management and configuration in a catchment. There are temporal and spatial distribution changes for the observed hydro-climatic factors. It was induced by both of the natural variability and human activities including greenhouse gas emissions and the influence of land use/cover changes. Understanding the happened climate change and human activities and their influence on the hydrological process based on observed data is good for future runoff prediction. Selecting seven catchments as the study subjects, this paper estimated the impacts of human activities and climate change on runoff quantitatively and predicted the future runoff considering the influence of human activities. Firstly, the research thoughts of "Reverse verification after preliminary confirmation" were used to determine the "natural period". After that the climatic elastic coefficient method and hydrological simulation method were used to evaluate the runoff responds to climate change and human activities during the last fifty years. The method of downscaling GCM outputs coupled with hydrological simulation was used to future runoff prediction. The main content and results of this study are as follows:
(1) Long time gradual trend and step change are important indicators of the hydro-climatic change/variables. Based on long term observed data, the Mann-Kendall test, linear regression test and Mann-Whitney-Pettitt change point analysis method were used to detect and diagnose the temporal and spatial distribution changes of the hydro-climatic factors. Dominant factors of the water cycle were analyzed and impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff were identified qualitatively according to the test results.
(2) SWAT model for the seven selected catchments were established with the DEM data, soil data, land use/cover data and hydrometeorological data. Then the multivariable and multistation method was used in model calibration on the basis of water balance. Parameters of the SWAT models were celebrated step by step from upstream to downstream. Evaluation of the SWAT model showed that SWAT model are available and can descript the runoff process reasonably and can be used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff.
(3) Detection of the "natural period" is extremely important for quantization of the runoff response to climate changes and human activities. Focusing on the defects that "natural period" cannot be verified in the previous study, this paper proposed a thought of "reverse verification after preliminary confirmation" to verify the "natural period". Determine the significant impacted period firstly with change point analysis method. Then, use the earliest hydrometeorological date to calibrated hydrological model and reconstruct "natural runoff" There after "rainfall-runoff and "rainfall-natural runoff double accumulation curve can be drew in the same coordinate. According to the separation time of the two double accumulation curve and the information of human activities, rationality of the "natural period" and "natural runoff can be verified at last.
(4) After reasonable division of the "natural period" and reconstruction of the "nature runoff, climatic elastic coefficient method and hydrological simulation method were used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff quantitatively. The results show that, compared to natural period, contributions of climate change and human activities on runoff change calculated by the two methods are consistent. In the selected catchment, climate change and human activities affect runoff commonly, however, human activities play a leading role.
(5) Detailed analysis of the climate elasticity of streamflow and human induced runoff change show that:Streamflow is positively related to precipitation while negatively related to temperature; the precipitation-streamflow sensitivity are greater than that of the streamflow-temperature; increasing runoff reductions were found for the catchments studied; inter-annual runoff distribution has been seriously disturbed in the catchments where large reservoirs were built; runoff was little changed in the forest catchment where human activities were weak. Human activities have distinct regional characteristics, and human-induced runoff changes were related to the annual precipitation.
(6) Human activities as well as climate change are driving factors that induced runoff change. The impacts of human activities are even greater in some catchments in northeast China. However, the traditional hydrological projection was directly estimated by calibrated hydrological model with the output from GCMs, without considering the impacts of human activities on water resources. In this study a correction coefficient method were presented to predict future runoff considering human activities. The hydrological projection was assessed by the following steps:celebrate the revise coefficient according to the observed precipitation, observed runoff and reconstructed nature runoff; downscaling the outputs of GCMs to regional scale, and take it as input data of hydrological model to simulate future "natural runoff; estimate the future runoff tendency considering human activities according to the correction formula.
(1)基于长期的气象和水文观测资料,研究东北地区七个样本流域水循环要素的时空演变规律。采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法、线性回归检验法Mann-Whitney-Pettitt突变点分析方法以及累积双曲线法,开展气象水文要素的趋势性检验和突变点诊断研究。在此基础上揭示水循环要素的趋势性与阶段性特征,定性辨识气候变化和人类活动因素对径流的影响。
(2)结合流域的DEM、土壤、土地利用及气象水文数据,采用SWAT模型对七个样本流域的水循环过程进行了模拟。在总结现有研究的基础上采用以水量平衡为控制条件的多站点多变量模型率定方法,从上游控制站到下游控制站逐级率定模型参数,模拟样本流域的径流过程。模型评价结果表明SWAT模型在样本流域的模拟效果较好,可以用于定量分析气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响。
(3)针对以往“天然阶段”与“天然径流”合理性无法验证的缺陷,提出了辨识河川径流“自然状态”的双累积曲线法,使“天然阶段”的划分更加合理。该方法依据人类活动对径流影响程度的变化特征,首先采用统计学的突变点分析方法确定人类活动影响显著时期；接着采用最早期的水文气象资料率定水文模型并还原流域的天然径流；然后绘制“降水-径流”与“降水-天然径流”双累积曲线；最后根据两条双累积曲线的分离时间及流域的人类活动影响信息验证“天然阶段”与“天然径流”的合理性。
(4)采用弹性系数法与水文模拟法定量分析了样本流域气候变化与人类活动对径流影响的贡献量。结果表明：相对于天然阶段,在整个人类活动影响阶段,两种计算方法得到的气候变化与人类活动对径流影响的贡献量在大部分流域取得了比较一致的结果。选取的样本流域中气候变化与人类活动共同对径流产生影响,人类活动对径流的减少起到主导作用。
(5)详细分析了各样本流域径流对年降水和年平均气温变化的敏感性,以及各样本流域在不同年代、不同年降雨类型下人类活动对径流的影响特征。结果表明：样本流域对降水变化的敏感性远远大于对温度变化的敏感性；随着社会经济的发展,人类活动对径流的影响程度越来越剧烈；修建大型水库的流域,水利工程的调蓄作用严重地改变了径流的丰枯过程；在人类活动影响较小的森林流域,径流的改变很小；人类活动对径流的影响具有区域化特征,不同降水类型下,人类活动对径流的改变程度不尽相同。
(6)针对未来径流变化预测的研究只考虑了气候变化影响,并没有考虑到人类活动影响或者将其影响参数化的问题,在合理划分天然阶段的基础上采用修正系数法进行考虑人类活动影响的水资源预测研究,为其它流域的相关研究提供参考。该方法首先根据实测降水、径流及还原的“天然径流”率定出人类活动对累积径流的影响系数；然后进行GCMs输出数据的区域化处理,并将降尺度的数据输入到水文模型模拟未来的“天然径流”；最后根据修正公式预估考虑人类活动影响的未来径流状况。
Evaluation of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff are important for water resources planning, management and configuration in a catchment. There are temporal and spatial distribution changes for the observed hydro-climatic factors. It was induced by both of the natural variability and human activities including greenhouse gas emissions and the influence of land use/cover changes. Understanding the happened climate change and human activities and their influence on the hydrological process based on observed data is good for future runoff prediction. Selecting seven catchments as the study subjects, this paper estimated the impacts of human activities and climate change on runoff quantitatively and predicted the future runoff considering the influence of human activities. Firstly, the research thoughts of "Reverse verification after preliminary confirmation" were used to determine the "natural period". After that the climatic elastic coefficient method and hydrological simulation method were used to evaluate the runoff responds to climate change and human activities during the last fifty years. The method of downscaling GCM outputs coupled with hydrological simulation was used to future runoff prediction. The main content and results of this study are as follows:
(1) Long time gradual trend and step change are important indicators of the hydro-climatic change/variables. Based on long term observed data, the Mann-Kendall test, linear regression test and Mann-Whitney-Pettitt change point analysis method were used to detect and diagnose the temporal and spatial distribution changes of the hydro-climatic factors. Dominant factors of the water cycle were analyzed and impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff were identified qualitatively according to the test results.
(2) SWAT model for the seven selected catchments were established with the DEM data, soil data, land use/cover data and hydrometeorological data. Then the multivariable and multistation method was used in model calibration on the basis of water balance. Parameters of the SWAT models were celebrated step by step from upstream to downstream. Evaluation of the SWAT model showed that SWAT model are available and can descript the runoff process reasonably and can be used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff.
(3) Detection of the "natural period" is extremely important for quantization of the runoff response to climate changes and human activities. Focusing on the defects that "natural period" cannot be verified in the previous study, this paper proposed a thought of "reverse verification after preliminary confirmation" to verify the "natural period". Determine the significant impacted period firstly with change point analysis method. Then, use the earliest hydrometeorological date to calibrated hydrological model and reconstruct "natural runoff" There after "rainfall-runoff and "rainfall-natural runoff double accumulation curve can be drew in the same coordinate. According to the separation time of the two double accumulation curve and the information of human activities, rationality of the "natural period" and "natural runoff can be verified at last.
(4) After reasonable division of the "natural period" and reconstruction of the "nature runoff, climatic elastic coefficient method and hydrological simulation method were used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff quantitatively. The results show that, compared to natural period, contributions of climate change and human activities on runoff change calculated by the two methods are consistent. In the selected catchment, climate change and human activities affect runoff commonly, however, human activities play a leading role.
(5) Detailed analysis of the climate elasticity of streamflow and human induced runoff change show that:Streamflow is positively related to precipitation while negatively related to temperature; the precipitation-streamflow sensitivity are greater than that of the streamflow-temperature; increasing runoff reductions were found for the catchments studied; inter-annual runoff distribution has been seriously disturbed in the catchments where large reservoirs were built; runoff was little changed in the forest catchment where human activities were weak. Human activities have distinct regional characteristics, and human-induced runoff changes were related to the annual precipitation.
(6) Human activities as well as climate change are driving factors that induced runoff change. The impacts of human activities are even greater in some catchments in northeast China. However, the traditional hydrological projection was directly estimated by calibrated hydrological model with the output from GCMs, without considering the impacts of human activities on water resources. In this study a correction coefficient method were presented to predict future runoff considering human activities. The hydrological projection was assessed by the following steps:celebrate the revise coefficient according to the observed precipitation, observed runoff and reconstructed nature runoff; downscaling the outputs of GCMs to regional scale, and take it as input data of hydrological model to simulate future "natural runoff; estimate the future runoff tendency considering human activities according to the correction formula.
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