丁二烯球罐区的风险辨识与控制研究
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摘要
丁二烯罐区作为重大危险源之一,任何微小的闪失都可能造成不可预料的严重结果,因此如何作好罐区的安全管理工作是必须要解决的问题。丁二烯罐区的安全管理不能仅仅局限于罐区设备的管理,还要解决罐区作业环境、人员素质、管理制度等方面存在的问题。本文从全方位、多角度研究了罐区“人-机-环境”的安全性,为罐区安全生产工作提供一种技术支持和理论指导,为罐区的安全管理提供保障。
本文分析了丁二烯罐区存在的各类危险因素与有害因素及其风险,建立了罐区风险管理三级指标体系,通过指标初选确定初始指标体系。采用改进的层次分析法计算各体系指标的权重,通过指标重要度筛选和灰色关联度筛选对体系指标进行优化,最终确定了罐区风险管理指标体系。
采用模糊综合评价法对罐区安全管理的安全等级进行评价,针对得出的评价结果提出有针对性的建议。对罐区风险管理、职工素质、作业环境及设备风险进行了比较深入的探讨,尤其是针对设备风险探讨了球罐的主要失效因素并对设备可靠性进行了研究。采用模糊分析法研究设备整体可靠性,确定了失效率,同时采用基于设备状态信息的方法对单一设备进行了可靠性评估,找出其中规律并确定预防性检查和维护的时间间隔,为罐区设备管理提供理论指导。
为简化评价过程中数据收集、数据保存、数据运算等繁琐步骤,并充分利用企业局域网的优点,建立了安全评价信息平台。平台通过ASP技术与数据库的结合,可实现在线安全评价并保存相关评价数据。信息平台一共包括企业门户功能模块、单人权重计算功能模块、综合权重计算功能模块、模糊综合评价功能模块、设备可靠性分析功能模块及事故后果模拟功能模块,进一步提高罐区安全电算化水平。
As a major source of danger, ball pot zone of Butadiene may cause unpredictable serious consequences when minor error occurs. So how to make safety management well in ball pot zone of Butadiene is a problem must be solved. Besides equipment management, safety management contains other factors, such as staff management, system management, working environment. It can achieve real safety of man-machine-environment from all aspects and multi-angles. The paper proposes the issue-"The Risk Identification and Control Research of Ball Pot Zone of Butadiene" based on the above considerations and the content of topic choose. The paper can provide a technical support and theoretical guidance for the safety management of ball pot zone of Butadiene.
The paper analyses all kinds of risks of harmful factors in ball pot zone of Butadiene, and then establishes three-level index system of risk management. The initial index system can be determined by the primary indicators. The paper takes the improved AHP method to calculate the weights of indicators, and takes the important selection method and the gray relational analysis to optimize the index system. And then the final index system can be got.
The paper takes the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the safety level of ball pot zone of Butadiene and proposes specific recommendations based on the results of evaluation. The paper takes further study on risk management, staff quality, working environment and equipment risk, particularly on the main failure factors and the reliability. For calculating the failure rate, the paper takes the reliability method based on fuzzy mathematics to study the reliability of equipments in ball pot zone of Butadiene. For a single device, a method of reliability analysis, which can identify the laws and determine the intervals of preventive inspection or maintenance, was proposed by monitoring the status of its parameters.
At the end of the paper, a safety information platform is established by using advantages of the LAN in enterprise. The platform can enhance the practicality of the research. The safety information platform can enable the online evaluation and save the relevant data. The platform concludes enterprise function module, one-people weight calculation function module, comprehensive weight calculation function module, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation function module, reliability analysis function module and accident consequences simulation function module. The safety information platform also enhances the computerization level of safety in ball pot zone of Butadiene.
本文分析了丁二烯罐区存在的各类危险因素与有害因素及其风险,建立了罐区风险管理三级指标体系,通过指标初选确定初始指标体系。采用改进的层次分析法计算各体系指标的权重,通过指标重要度筛选和灰色关联度筛选对体系指标进行优化,最终确定了罐区风险管理指标体系。
采用模糊综合评价法对罐区安全管理的安全等级进行评价,针对得出的评价结果提出有针对性的建议。对罐区风险管理、职工素质、作业环境及设备风险进行了比较深入的探讨,尤其是针对设备风险探讨了球罐的主要失效因素并对设备可靠性进行了研究。采用模糊分析法研究设备整体可靠性,确定了失效率,同时采用基于设备状态信息的方法对单一设备进行了可靠性评估,找出其中规律并确定预防性检查和维护的时间间隔,为罐区设备管理提供理论指导。
为简化评价过程中数据收集、数据保存、数据运算等繁琐步骤,并充分利用企业局域网的优点,建立了安全评价信息平台。平台通过ASP技术与数据库的结合,可实现在线安全评价并保存相关评价数据。信息平台一共包括企业门户功能模块、单人权重计算功能模块、综合权重计算功能模块、模糊综合评价功能模块、设备可靠性分析功能模块及事故后果模拟功能模块,进一步提高罐区安全电算化水平。
As a major source of danger, ball pot zone of Butadiene may cause unpredictable serious consequences when minor error occurs. So how to make safety management well in ball pot zone of Butadiene is a problem must be solved. Besides equipment management, safety management contains other factors, such as staff management, system management, working environment. It can achieve real safety of man-machine-environment from all aspects and multi-angles. The paper proposes the issue-"The Risk Identification and Control Research of Ball Pot Zone of Butadiene" based on the above considerations and the content of topic choose. The paper can provide a technical support and theoretical guidance for the safety management of ball pot zone of Butadiene.
The paper analyses all kinds of risks of harmful factors in ball pot zone of Butadiene, and then establishes three-level index system of risk management. The initial index system can be determined by the primary indicators. The paper takes the improved AHP method to calculate the weights of indicators, and takes the important selection method and the gray relational analysis to optimize the index system. And then the final index system can be got.
The paper takes the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the safety level of ball pot zone of Butadiene and proposes specific recommendations based on the results of evaluation. The paper takes further study on risk management, staff quality, working environment and equipment risk, particularly on the main failure factors and the reliability. For calculating the failure rate, the paper takes the reliability method based on fuzzy mathematics to study the reliability of equipments in ball pot zone of Butadiene. For a single device, a method of reliability analysis, which can identify the laws and determine the intervals of preventive inspection or maintenance, was proposed by monitoring the status of its parameters.
At the end of the paper, a safety information platform is established by using advantages of the LAN in enterprise. The platform can enhance the practicality of the research. The safety information platform can enable the online evaluation and save the relevant data. The platform concludes enterprise function module, one-people weight calculation function module, comprehensive weight calculation function module, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation function module, reliability analysis function module and accident consequences simulation function module. The safety information platform also enhances the computerization level of safety in ball pot zone of Butadiene.
引文
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