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基于扩展CA的土地利用时空演化模型研究
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摘要
土地利用变化(LUCC)模型模拟是LUCC研究的重要而有效的方法,基于元胞自动机(CA)的LUCC模型构建则是LUCC模型模拟研究的重要课题。一个良好的模型,其数据与模型间应具有良好的融合度,然而,当前基于CA的LUCC建模研究忽略了土地利用数据与CA模型结构间的关系。基于此,本文结合CA模型的构成,有体系地将土地利用数据融入其中,对CA中的不足之处进行适当地扩展和改进,并据此建立LUCC-CA理论和应用模型。
     首先,文章总结了LUCC驱动因子的相关研究,根据CA模型结构特点,将LUCC驱动因子分为内因和外因两大类,并据此对CA模型的基本构成进行扩展,在元胞和元胞空间两个层次分别引入内因和宏观控制因素的概念,分析改进后模型的动力机制和特点。
     然后,将扩展CA模型的基本构成“土地化”,构建LUCC-CA理论模型,再结合Markov Chain、蚁群智能优化算法和Agent系统原理建立LUCC-CA应用模型。该模型采用Markov Chain预测土地利用数量变化情况作为CA的宏观控制因素,采用蚁群智能优化算法挖掘土地利用变化过程中土地利用单元的内因和外因组合而成的空间转换规则,最后结合Agent和扩展CA模拟土地利用的动态变化过程。
     最后,以北京市昌平区为例进行实证研究。根据昌平区1988年和1998年的土地利用数据,应用LUCC-CA应用模型模拟得到2008年的土地利用数据,通过模拟结果与实际土地利用情况的对比,验证了模拟结果的准确性,再通过与其它模型模拟结果的对比,证明该模型在数量和空间两方面都具有较高的精度。
It is an important and effective methodto study land use/cover change (LUCC)bysimulatingmodels.Building LUCCmodel based on cellular automata (CA) is theimportant issues of LUCC simulation. A good model must integrate data andalgorithm well.However, the current CA-based LUCC modelsignore the relationshipbetween land use data with thestructure of CA model. Therefore, this paper proposedto improve CA model according to the land use data and influent factors of LUCC,and then established the theory and application LUCCmodel based on CA.
     First of all, theresearches of LUCC driving factorswere summarized, accordingto the structure characteristics of CA model, the driving factors were divided into twocategories: internal factors andexternal factors. Then based on this research, the CAmodel was improved.At thelayer of cellular space, the macro control factor was takenin, and for each cell, the internal factors were added. And then, thedynamicmechanism and characteristicswere analyzed.
     Then, the basic structures of extended CA were described by concepts of land tobuild LUCC-CA theory model.Combined with Markov Chain, ant colonyoptimization algorithm (ACO) and Agent,a LUCC-CA application model wasestabilished. The model adoptd the Markov Chain forecasting quantity of land usechanges, and took it as the macro control factorof extendedCA; usedACO miningspatial transformation rules;usesAgent and extended CA simulating land use dynamicchange process.
     Finally, case study was carried out in Changping, a district of Beijing.A land usemap of the experimental areawas simulated for2008using the modelbased on landuse maps from1988and1998. By analyzing the simulation results, we showed thatthe model is useful for land use change simulation.Compared with the other models,the model is more appropriate for predicting both the quantity and spatial distributionof land use changein the study area. Therefore the modelproposed in this paper iscapable of simulating land use change.
引文
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