我国税收增长问题研究：1994-2007
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摘要
改革开放三十年我国经济、社会建设取得了举世瞩目的成就,经济发展水平和经济结构发生了巨大变化。同时改革开放三十年也正是我国经济制度不断调整、完善的过程。顺应历史的要求,1994年我国进行了建国以来范围最大、影响最为深远地工商税制改革,基本建立了与市场经济发展相适应的税收制度。伴随着我国经济的高增长我国税收收入也出现了惊人的高速增长态势,并且自1996年以来税收收入增长呈现出持续高于GDP增长速度的态势。基于经济原理和直观感受,我国学者对税收的这种高速增长、超GDP增长给予了极大关注。
那么到底是什么原因导致了税收持续大幅度超GDP增长?税收的这种高速增长是否合理?目前税收增长是否脱离经济增长?税收高速增长对我国经济增长会产生怎样的影响?弄清楚上述问题将为我国推进新一轮税制改革和制定正确的税收政策奠定坚实的理论基础。
本文遵循人们认识事物的一般规律,沿着税收增长的特征、原因及对经济增长影响的思路研究1994—2007年我国税收增长问题,探寻推动经济可持续增长的税收增长之路,促进税收与经济之间关系和谐,使税收体制成为经济增长的推动器。
一、税收收入及增长特征
1996年以来,我国税收环比增长率持续高于名义GDP环比增长率,税收增长呈现出超GDP增长的特征。与计划经济体制相联系,1994—2007年税收收入每年都超税收计划增长,税收超收是我国税收增长的特有现象。
1994—2007年,从税种角度看,所得税是税收高速增长的主要动力;从产业角度看,来自第三产业的税收增长均超过第一、二产业;从区域角度看,我国东部税收增长显著地高于其他经济带;从经济成分看,混合或股份经济成为支撑此时期税收高速增长的强劲动力;从税收级次看,中央税收增长显示出比地方税收更强地增长势头,基本实现控制地方财政收入的目标。
二、税收决定及超GDP增长的原因
(一)税收决定
通过方差分析发现1994—2007年税收增长率均值显著地高于1985—1993年税收增长率的均值;同时方差分析还发现1985—1993年税收增长率和1994—2007年税收增长率具有方差齐性,分税制只是引起了税收增长率均值突变,但没有改变税收增长的内在机理。
1994—2007年GDP是决定我国税收收入水平的主要因素,但GDP既不是影响税收增长也不是导致税收超GDP增长的显著性因素,也即从税收增量角度而言GDP不是影响税收增长的主要原因,使得税收增长体现出超常增长的特征。
经济效益既是决定税收收入水平的主要因素,也是影响税收增长和税收超GDP增长的显著性因素。与经济效益联系最紧密的税种是所得税,所得税在所有税种中增长势头最强劲。而经济效益的提升与股份制改革密不可分,来自混合或股份经济的税收增长势头最强劲。另外,度量经济效益的指标主要选取了规模以上工业企业相关指标,说明税收收入主要来自规模以上工业企业。
(二)税收超GDP增长的原因
1994—2007年导致我国税收收入超GDP增长的原因既有偶发性因素也有持续性因素。持续性因素一旦达到某种水平状态就会持续推动税收超GDP增长;偶发性因素需要不断变动才能刺激税收超GDP增长。偶发性因素凸显了税收超GDP增长与税收收入决定的原因差别。
1994—2007年导致我国税收一次性超GDP增长的偶发性因素有:因打击走私、实行“一个制度、四个体系”新征税模式、实施金税工程和精细化科学化管理带来的征管水平提升;非税收入清理、规范化和税收优惠政策到期等政策因素;国有企业改革和民营经济活跃带来的经济效益提高;非均衡性通货膨胀;证券市场交易活跃等因素带来资源行为目的类税收大幅度增长。税收持续性超GDP增长的原因:目前的产业结构状态;企业效益提高、居民工资上涨和房价上涨而适用更高的超额边际税率带来的超额累进税收入;进口贸易超GDP增长。
其中,经济效益变动、税收征管水平增长和经济效益水平是导致税收超GDP增长的主要因素。1994—2007年税收超GDP增长主要原因是偶发性因素,说明税收超GDP增长不具有稳定性和可持续性。
三、税收对经济增长的影响
1994～2006年我国税收与GDP之间存在协整关系;但2007年税收数据生成过程发生改变,1994—2007年税收与GDP之间不存在协整关系。说明1994年税制改革建立起了税收与经济增长之间的稳定关系,但这种关系在2007年被破坏。而且发现当期GDP并非税收增长的显著原因,尤其2007年税收增长一定程度上背离了经济增长,这与我国流转税为主的税收制度相关。
无论是税收对推动经济增长的投资、劳动、消费、出口和技术等主要因素的影响还是分省市税收对经济增长的综合影响都表明税收对经济增长的负面效应已经显现,税收对经济增长已经出现弱地抑制作用。由斯库利(Scully)模型,促进我国经济增长的最优宏观税负为18.98%,结合巴罗(Barro)模型估计的结果,我国合理的宏观税负水平应该在20%左右。
投资受宏观比例税负影响显著,个人所得税对投资存在显著压抑作用,而且政府投资对民间投资的挤出效应明显。
边际税负以几何倍数按二次曲线形式显著地影响劳动力供给和净出口,且呈倒U型关系,促进城镇从业人数和净出口增长最快的边际税负分别为19.58%和12.39%。进出口环节净税负与净出口显著负相关。
边际宏观税负与居民最终消费增长率呈U型,目前处于U型的前半部分,呈反J型。个人所得税与居民消费显著负相关。
技术主要受到边际宏观税负的影响,两者呈线性关系且显著负相关,边际宏观税负按固定比例影响技术。
1994—2007年我国经济增长呈现显著地条件收敛。就全国范围而言,税收增长对经济增长已经产生了弱地抑制效应。但税收增长对四个经济带经济增长的影响各不相同,税收增长推动了东部和中部经济增长,尤其是对东部推动作用显著;税收增长抑制了东北部和西部经济增长,尤其是对西部抑制作用显著。综合而言,税收对区域经济差距无显著影响。
税收增长导致的财政支出增长推动了经济增长,全国而言这种作用显著,与理论保持一致,但东北部和西部的这种效应不显著。另外,与税收增长相联系的财政支出对区域经济增长差距具有显著影响,就全国而言,缩小了各省、市、自治区的差距;分经济区域看,中部却是扩大了差距,其它区域则和全国保持一致。
四、结论与政策建议
由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机席卷全球,受到金融危机影响,我国经济增长放缓,同时国家采取了一系列减税措施刺激经济增长,2008年我国税收增长呈现明显的“前高后低”的走势,税收持续十多年的高增长状态结束,并在年底急转为负增长。结合本文的研究结论和当前的经济金融形势,提出若干政策建议。
(一)主要结论
1994-2007年税收增长(尤其持续超GDP增长)的直接后果是宏观税负水平提升,目前我国小口径宏观税负基本达到了最优宏观税负水平,而大口径宏观税负(尤其考虑土地出让金后)已经显著超过了最优宏观税负。可税GDP占GDP的比例平均为67.17%左右,可税GDP大口径税负平均高达36.24%,说明税基偏窄,这就是为何整体宏观税负不高而微观主体感觉税负难以承担的原因。
名义税率和实际税率之间的巨大差异是税收征管水平提升的来源,也给予了税务机关调控收入的弹性。税务机关加强征管的激励很大程度上与地方政府的超收返还以及返还不纳入预算管理联系在一起。我国税收收入主要来自规模以上工业企业。
目前需新增4万亿财政支出,而税收增长为负,我国既面临着增收又面临着减负的压力。
目前,边际宏观税负与居民最终消费增长率关系呈反J型,技术与边际宏观税负显著负相关,边际税负远高于促进城镇从业人数和净出口增长的最优边际税负。
进出口环节净税负与净出口显著负相关;个人所得税与居民消费显著负相关。
研究发现规模以上工业企业税负与全社会投资增长率之间正相关,可能的原因是目前企业投资决策尚缺乏理性,增加投资成为增加政府税收的来源,形成了政府为了获取税收而必须高投资,同时高投资又需要政府多收税,两者共同推动税收高增长以及企业税负与投资正相关。
税收增长对区域经济增长产生显著性差异,可能是现行税制在区域经济发展过程中发挥着“抽瘦补肥”的马态效应。
(二)政策建议
从宏观税负角度而言,减税政策和我国税制设计的政策目标应当是使宏观税负维持在2O%左右,推动经济最优增长。在当前税制改革中要注意扩宽税基,实行宽税基低税负,努力构建所得税和流转税双主体的税制结构。
应当降低名义税率但又略高于实际税负,压缩名义税负和实际税负的之间的空间;应进一步完善分税制,培育地方主体税种,减少中央和地方共享税,努力解决税务机关(主要是国税机关)“双重忠诚”问题;严禁各种形式的收入返还,进一步推进依法治税。规模以上工业企业应当是税源监控的重点对象。
需要进一步深化对非税收入管理,积极推动费改税,强化预算管理,努力将所有政府资金纳入预算管理。
当前采取的结构性减税措施的同时还应注意保证、开辟税源,缓解财政收支矛盾压力,暂应保留证券交易印花税。
应大力降低边际宏观税负,推动消费以倍数增长、提高全要素生产率、促进城镇从业人数和净出口增长。应当减轻个人所得税负,刺激居民消费,扩大内需。提高部分商品的出口退税率等将降低进出口环节净税负,有利于刺激净出口增长,扩大外需,关键是落实政策,防止骗税、偷漏税。
应积极推行绩效财政和强化国有企业绩效考核,建立“先评审,后编制”、“先评审,后招标”的科学、严格、公开的运行机制,提高财政资金的使用效率和防止非理性投资。
西部和东北部应当努力改善投资环境,吸引企业将总部设在本区域;改革来源地原则的税收返还政策,降低返还比例,可将现行30%改为15%,提高中央政府纵向转移支付的水平;提高横向转移支付水平,推动区域均衡发展。
During the past thirty years, with the reform and opening-up policy being carried out in China, remarkable achievements have been made in economic and social construction. The past thirty years is also a process in which our economic system gets adjusted and perfected.
In 1994,China carried out the most extensive and influential reform in industry and commerce taxation. Since then, China's tax system has been stable ,and with the rapid development of its economy, China's tax revenue has also increased strikingly. What's more, since 1996, tax revenue has a higher increase rate than that of GDP. Based on economic principles and intuitive feelings, scholars in China have attached much attention to this phenomenon.
So what causes to China's unusual revenue growth? Is this phenomenon reasonable? Does the current revenue growth break away from economic growth? What the high growth of tax revenue has exerted on economic growth? These questions have been the focus of scholars at home towards the above-mentioned phenomenon.
Now, a new round of reform is carried out on fiscal taxation. Making certain of the above questions will advance the new-round fiscal taxation reform and establish a solid foundation for current taxation policy.
Therefore, according to the characteristics and reasons of tax revenue growth as well as its influence on economic growth, this thesis makes researches on China's tax revenue growth since 1994.The research method undertaken not only follows the general rule of people's understanding of things, but also grasps the main theme that revenue serves to economy, in order to urge continuative economic growth and harmonious relationship of tax and economics.
1. Tax Revenue and the Feature of its Growth
Since 1996,the link relative ratio of China's tax revenue growth has exceeded that of GDP. Tax revenue growth was above normal level from 1994 to 2007.During this period, the tax revenue growth outstripped its plan every year.
From the perspective of items of tax, from 1994 to 2007 income tax was the main force of the revenue growth. From the perspective of industry, the tertiary industry tax growth exceeded that of primary and secondary industries. From the perspective of region, the revenue growth in eastern China is markedly higher than that in other economic belt. From the perspective of economic composition, the growth rate of revenue that came from mixed or shared economy was higher than that from economic sectors. Besides, it released that the central revenue growth was faster than that of the local from 1994 to 2007,which was also one of the basic goals of tax reform carried out in 1994.
2 Revenue Decision and the Reason for its Growth Exceeding that of GDP
2.1 Revenue Decision
Through variance analysis, we find that the average revenue growth rate from 1994 to 2007 is obviously higher than that from 1985 to 1993. At the same time, through variance analysis, it is found that the revenue growth rate from 1985 to 1993 and the revenue growth rate from 1994 to 2007 have homogeneity of variance. The tax-sharing system results in the vast change of the average revenue growth rate, but doesn't affect the trend of revenue growth.
From 1994 to 2007,GDP was the decisive factor of the level of China's tax revenue, but was not significant factor influencing tax revenue growth or the leading to tax revenue growth exceeding GDP. That is to say, from the perspective of tax revenue growth, GDP wasn't its main factor.
Economic benefit is not only the decisive factors of tax revenue level, but also the significant factor influencing tax revenue growth and the leading to tax revenue growth exceeding GDP. As economic benefit is mostly related to income tax, income tax shows the most powerful growth force among all. Meanwhile, as the rise of economic benefit is inseparable from the joint-stock system reform, the revenue growth of mixed or shared economy ranks the highest, which illustrates the property right-oriented reform has achieved success. In addition, the index measuring economic benefit is chosen from industrial enterprises above designated size. This reveals revenue mainly comes from those enterprises.
2.2 The Reasons for Revenue Growth Exceeding that of GDP
There are Incidental factors and durative factors which can account for this phenomenon. When the durative factors reached some level, they will keep driving the revenue to grow faster than GDP. However, only in constant change can occasional factors let the same thing happen .
From 1994 to 2007,what lead to the revenue growth once exceeding GDP were these factors, say, a the rise of collection and management level resulting from the new collection mode "one principle, four systems" which aimed at attacking smuggle, the implementation of Golden Tax Project and refined scientific management: policy factors such as the normalization of non-taxable income and the expiration of preferential tax policy; the increase of economic benefit resulting from the reform of state-owned enterprises and vigorous private economy ; unbalanced inflation and so on. The reasons that bring about revenue growth exceeding GDP are: the current state of industry structure caused by the upgrading of industrial structure; surtax income brought by increase of enterprise revenue and residents' pay ; import business transactions develop faster than GDP.
Among these factors, economic benefit change, the growth of tax collection and management level and the economic benefit level are the main ones that lead to tax revenue growth exceeding that of GDP. And these factors are one-off factors, which implies tax revenue growth exceeding that of GDP isn't stable or sustainable.
3. Impact of Tax Revenue on Economic Growth
From 1994 to 2006, tax revenue and GDP data of our country have co-integration relation. It shows that the tax revenue increase has not broken away from the constraint of economic growth and system of tax-sharing reform in 1994 built up inherent stable connection between tax revenue and economic growth. But the data of tax revenue in 2007 has changed the data generating process of tax growth,and broken the co-integration relation between tax revenue and economic growth.
Impact of tax revenue on the major factors of economic growth propeller (such as investment, labor , consumption , export and technology) and the complex impact of tax revenue in each city on economic growth all indicate that the negative effects tax revenue on economic growth have already appeared. According to Scully Model, the optimum macro tax incidence which boosts economic growth of our country is 18.98%. Combined with the result of Baluo Model, the reasonable level of tax in our country is about 20%.
Proportional macro tax incidence has great influence in investment. Individual income tax has inhibitory action to investment. Moreover, the crowding out effect of government investment to private investment is quite obvious .
Marginal macro tax incidence notably affects the labor force supply and net exports with a multiple of geometric growth in the form of quadratic curve. They have inverted U type relations. The marginal macro tax incidences which promote the rapidest growth of the number of employees in cities and towns and net exports are 19.58% and 12.39% respectively. Net macro tax incidence of imports and exports and net exports have notable negative correlation.
Marginal macro tax incidence and the ultimate resident consumption growth rate assume the U type, shaping the upper parts of a U type and a J type observing from the opposite side. Individual income tax and the consumption of resident have notable negative correlation.
The technology is effected by Marginal macroscopic macro tax incidence. Both of them assume the linearity relation and notable negative correlation. Marginal macroscopic macro tax incidence affect technology according to. fixed proportion.
From 1994 to 2007, China's economic growth displays notable conditional convergence. As far as the whole country is concerned, tax revenue increase already has infirmly retarding effect to economic growth. But the effect o four economic belts differs. The tax revenue growth has driven the economic growth of eastern and central areas, and the effect is especially notable to the east; tax revenue increase inhibits the economic growth of northeast and western areas, and the inhibitory effect is especially notable to the west. Generally speaking, tax revenue has no significant effect to area economic gap.
The tax revenue growth results in the increase of financial expenditure, which leads to economic growth. As far as the whole country is concerned, this effect is notable in theory, except in northeast and western parts of China. Besides, increase of the financial expenditure related to tax revenue has notable effect to area economic growth gap. As far as the whole country is concerned, the gap has been reduced between every province. Judging from each economic area, the gap in central area has been expanded ,while that of other areas is in pace with the whole country.
4.Conclusion and Policy Suggestion
The financial crisis initiated by American subprime crisis has swept the globe. Under the influence of financial crisis, China's economic growth has slowed down. China has adopted a series of tax cuts to stimulate its economy. As a result, tax revenue of our country in 2008 decreased gradually. The high speed increasing state of the tax revenue lasting for more than ten years has ended. Moreover, in the end of 2008, it has sharply presented the negative growth . On the basis of the research results of this thesis and current financial situation, the author has put forward the following policy suggestions.
4.1 The Conclusion
From 1994 to 2007. the tax revenue increase (especially, increase faster than GDP) directly leads to the rise of macro tax incidence's level. Small-bore macro tax incidence in our country has reached its optimum level, but large-bore macro tax incidence (after considering land remise fund especially) has already exceeded its optimum level notably. From 1994 to 2007,the average rate of China's taxable GDP in overall GDP is about 67.17%. China's taxable GDP large-bore macro tax incidence already has reached an average of 36.24%. These data shows that tax base is relatively narrow.
The big difference between nominal tax rate and the actual tax rate in our country calls for the improvement of tax. collection and administration level, and has ensures tax authorities to regulate and control invisible income flexibly. In this case, the tax authorities' enhancement on tax collection and administration is largely related to refund of surplus and budget management without exclusive of refund. Tax revenue in our country mainly comes from industrial enterprises above designated size.
At present, although the tax revenue presents negative growth, 4 trillion financial expenditures should be added newly, thus China is confronted with the pressures of increasing tax revenue and tax cuts.
Marginal macro tax incidence and the ultimate resident consumption growth rate assumes the U type, shaping the first part of U type at present. Technology and the marginal macro tax incidence have significant negative correlation. Net macro tax incidence of imports and exports and net exports show negative correlation. Individual income tax and the resident consume present significant negative correlation.
Tt is discovered that it has positive correlation between macro tax incidence of industrial enterprises above designated size and entire society's investment growth rate, the possible cause may be that enterprise investment is unreasonable at present. The investment increase becomes the source of increase of the government tax revenue. Therefore, in order to gain a higher tax revenue ,the government invest more. Meanwhile , more investment requires that the government collects more taxes. The two factors jointly contribute to tax revenue's high growth and the positive correlation between enterprises' macro tax incidence and investment.
The significant different effects of the tax revenue increase to economic increase can possibly result from the Matthew Effect that the current tax system has played in regional economic development.
4.2 Policy Suggestion
We should keep the macro tax burden about 20%.In the current reform of tax system , attention should be given to expand tax base and lower tax incidence. Build the tax system with income tax and turnover tax as the core.
At present, in the process of tax system reform, nominal tax rate should be reduced to narrow the distance between the nominal tax incidence and the actual tax incidence, but the former should still be a little higher than the latter. It is required to further improve tax-sharing system, cut down shared tax between central government and the local and strive to resolve " double faithful " problem of the tax authorities(mainly central tax organ ); Strictly forbid various forms of refunded revenues, in order to promote the tax management in accordance with the law. Industrial enterprises above designated size ought to be the key subjects of tax revenue monitoring.
Non-tax revenue administration should be enhanced, and bring non-tax revenue into range of state finance management. Transforming administrative fees into taxes is the focal and difficult point in the reform of the fiscal system hereafter. Should strengthen budget administration and bring all government funds into budget.
What's more, attention should be paid to guarantee and develop the tax revenue sources, and help relieve the contradiction between revenue and expenditure. The current increasingly serious contradictions in fiscal revenue and expenditure call for that stamp duty in dealing in securities should be retained .
Reducing marginal macro tax incidence will drive consumption to a multiple growth, and improve total factor productivity and employment situation and economic growth. Individual income tax should be reduced to stimulate resident consumption level and expand domestic demand. China has taken some Countermeasures such as raising tax rebates on some goods to lower the net tax incidence in export, stimulate net export and prevent economic growth from decreasing. It is essential to put policies into practice to guard against tax fraud, evasion.
To implement fiscal performance actively and strengthen the state-owned enterprises' performance appraisal, build scientific, strict and open operating mechanism ,distribute financial funds efficiently, preserve and increase the value of state assets and prevent unreasonable investment.
In the western and northeast part of China, efforts should be made to improve the investment environment to attract enterprises to set up their general headquarters there. To carry out tax refund policy and reduce the refund percentage from 30% to 15%; to improve central government's vertical and horizontal transfer payment capacity, thus to attain the balanced development of these areas.
那么到底是什么原因导致了税收持续大幅度超GDP增长?税收的这种高速增长是否合理?目前税收增长是否脱离经济增长?税收高速增长对我国经济增长会产生怎样的影响?弄清楚上述问题将为我国推进新一轮税制改革和制定正确的税收政策奠定坚实的理论基础。
本文遵循人们认识事物的一般规律,沿着税收增长的特征、原因及对经济增长影响的思路研究1994—2007年我国税收增长问题,探寻推动经济可持续增长的税收增长之路,促进税收与经济之间关系和谐,使税收体制成为经济增长的推动器。
一、税收收入及增长特征
1996年以来,我国税收环比增长率持续高于名义GDP环比增长率,税收增长呈现出超GDP增长的特征。与计划经济体制相联系,1994—2007年税收收入每年都超税收计划增长,税收超收是我国税收增长的特有现象。
1994—2007年,从税种角度看,所得税是税收高速增长的主要动力;从产业角度看,来自第三产业的税收增长均超过第一、二产业;从区域角度看,我国东部税收增长显著地高于其他经济带;从经济成分看,混合或股份经济成为支撑此时期税收高速增长的强劲动力;从税收级次看,中央税收增长显示出比地方税收更强地增长势头,基本实现控制地方财政收入的目标。
二、税收决定及超GDP增长的原因
(一)税收决定
通过方差分析发现1994—2007年税收增长率均值显著地高于1985—1993年税收增长率的均值;同时方差分析还发现1985—1993年税收增长率和1994—2007年税收增长率具有方差齐性,分税制只是引起了税收增长率均值突变,但没有改变税收增长的内在机理。
1994—2007年GDP是决定我国税收收入水平的主要因素,但GDP既不是影响税收增长也不是导致税收超GDP增长的显著性因素,也即从税收增量角度而言GDP不是影响税收增长的主要原因,使得税收增长体现出超常增长的特征。
经济效益既是决定税收收入水平的主要因素,也是影响税收增长和税收超GDP增长的显著性因素。与经济效益联系最紧密的税种是所得税,所得税在所有税种中增长势头最强劲。而经济效益的提升与股份制改革密不可分,来自混合或股份经济的税收增长势头最强劲。另外,度量经济效益的指标主要选取了规模以上工业企业相关指标,说明税收收入主要来自规模以上工业企业。
(二)税收超GDP增长的原因
1994—2007年导致我国税收收入超GDP增长的原因既有偶发性因素也有持续性因素。持续性因素一旦达到某种水平状态就会持续推动税收超GDP增长;偶发性因素需要不断变动才能刺激税收超GDP增长。偶发性因素凸显了税收超GDP增长与税收收入决定的原因差别。
1994—2007年导致我国税收一次性超GDP增长的偶发性因素有:因打击走私、实行“一个制度、四个体系”新征税模式、实施金税工程和精细化科学化管理带来的征管水平提升;非税收入清理、规范化和税收优惠政策到期等政策因素;国有企业改革和民营经济活跃带来的经济效益提高;非均衡性通货膨胀;证券市场交易活跃等因素带来资源行为目的类税收大幅度增长。税收持续性超GDP增长的原因:目前的产业结构状态;企业效益提高、居民工资上涨和房价上涨而适用更高的超额边际税率带来的超额累进税收入;进口贸易超GDP增长。
其中,经济效益变动、税收征管水平增长和经济效益水平是导致税收超GDP增长的主要因素。1994—2007年税收超GDP增长主要原因是偶发性因素,说明税收超GDP增长不具有稳定性和可持续性。
三、税收对经济增长的影响
1994～2006年我国税收与GDP之间存在协整关系;但2007年税收数据生成过程发生改变,1994—2007年税收与GDP之间不存在协整关系。说明1994年税制改革建立起了税收与经济增长之间的稳定关系,但这种关系在2007年被破坏。而且发现当期GDP并非税收增长的显著原因,尤其2007年税收增长一定程度上背离了经济增长,这与我国流转税为主的税收制度相关。
无论是税收对推动经济增长的投资、劳动、消费、出口和技术等主要因素的影响还是分省市税收对经济增长的综合影响都表明税收对经济增长的负面效应已经显现,税收对经济增长已经出现弱地抑制作用。由斯库利(Scully)模型,促进我国经济增长的最优宏观税负为18.98%,结合巴罗(Barro)模型估计的结果,我国合理的宏观税负水平应该在20%左右。
投资受宏观比例税负影响显著,个人所得税对投资存在显著压抑作用,而且政府投资对民间投资的挤出效应明显。
边际税负以几何倍数按二次曲线形式显著地影响劳动力供给和净出口,且呈倒U型关系,促进城镇从业人数和净出口增长最快的边际税负分别为19.58%和12.39%。进出口环节净税负与净出口显著负相关。
边际宏观税负与居民最终消费增长率呈U型,目前处于U型的前半部分,呈反J型。个人所得税与居民消费显著负相关。
技术主要受到边际宏观税负的影响,两者呈线性关系且显著负相关,边际宏观税负按固定比例影响技术。
1994—2007年我国经济增长呈现显著地条件收敛。就全国范围而言,税收增长对经济增长已经产生了弱地抑制效应。但税收增长对四个经济带经济增长的影响各不相同,税收增长推动了东部和中部经济增长,尤其是对东部推动作用显著;税收增长抑制了东北部和西部经济增长,尤其是对西部抑制作用显著。综合而言,税收对区域经济差距无显著影响。
税收增长导致的财政支出增长推动了经济增长,全国而言这种作用显著,与理论保持一致,但东北部和西部的这种效应不显著。另外,与税收增长相联系的财政支出对区域经济增长差距具有显著影响,就全国而言,缩小了各省、市、自治区的差距;分经济区域看,中部却是扩大了差距,其它区域则和全国保持一致。
四、结论与政策建议
由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机席卷全球,受到金融危机影响,我国经济增长放缓,同时国家采取了一系列减税措施刺激经济增长,2008年我国税收增长呈现明显的“前高后低”的走势,税收持续十多年的高增长状态结束,并在年底急转为负增长。结合本文的研究结论和当前的经济金融形势,提出若干政策建议。
(一)主要结论
1994-2007年税收增长(尤其持续超GDP增长)的直接后果是宏观税负水平提升,目前我国小口径宏观税负基本达到了最优宏观税负水平,而大口径宏观税负(尤其考虑土地出让金后)已经显著超过了最优宏观税负。可税GDP占GDP的比例平均为67.17%左右,可税GDP大口径税负平均高达36.24%,说明税基偏窄,这就是为何整体宏观税负不高而微观主体感觉税负难以承担的原因。
名义税率和实际税率之间的巨大差异是税收征管水平提升的来源,也给予了税务机关调控收入的弹性。税务机关加强征管的激励很大程度上与地方政府的超收返还以及返还不纳入预算管理联系在一起。我国税收收入主要来自规模以上工业企业。
目前需新增4万亿财政支出,而税收增长为负,我国既面临着增收又面临着减负的压力。
目前,边际宏观税负与居民最终消费增长率关系呈反J型,技术与边际宏观税负显著负相关,边际税负远高于促进城镇从业人数和净出口增长的最优边际税负。
进出口环节净税负与净出口显著负相关;个人所得税与居民消费显著负相关。
研究发现规模以上工业企业税负与全社会投资增长率之间正相关,可能的原因是目前企业投资决策尚缺乏理性,增加投资成为增加政府税收的来源,形成了政府为了获取税收而必须高投资,同时高投资又需要政府多收税,两者共同推动税收高增长以及企业税负与投资正相关。
税收增长对区域经济增长产生显著性差异,可能是现行税制在区域经济发展过程中发挥着“抽瘦补肥”的马态效应。
(二)政策建议
从宏观税负角度而言,减税政策和我国税制设计的政策目标应当是使宏观税负维持在2O%左右,推动经济最优增长。在当前税制改革中要注意扩宽税基,实行宽税基低税负,努力构建所得税和流转税双主体的税制结构。
应当降低名义税率但又略高于实际税负,压缩名义税负和实际税负的之间的空间;应进一步完善分税制,培育地方主体税种,减少中央和地方共享税,努力解决税务机关(主要是国税机关)“双重忠诚”问题;严禁各种形式的收入返还,进一步推进依法治税。规模以上工业企业应当是税源监控的重点对象。
需要进一步深化对非税收入管理,积极推动费改税,强化预算管理,努力将所有政府资金纳入预算管理。
当前采取的结构性减税措施的同时还应注意保证、开辟税源,缓解财政收支矛盾压力,暂应保留证券交易印花税。
应大力降低边际宏观税负,推动消费以倍数增长、提高全要素生产率、促进城镇从业人数和净出口增长。应当减轻个人所得税负,刺激居民消费,扩大内需。提高部分商品的出口退税率等将降低进出口环节净税负,有利于刺激净出口增长,扩大外需,关键是落实政策,防止骗税、偷漏税。
应积极推行绩效财政和强化国有企业绩效考核,建立“先评审,后编制”、“先评审,后招标”的科学、严格、公开的运行机制,提高财政资金的使用效率和防止非理性投资。
西部和东北部应当努力改善投资环境,吸引企业将总部设在本区域;改革来源地原则的税收返还政策,降低返还比例,可将现行30%改为15%,提高中央政府纵向转移支付的水平;提高横向转移支付水平,推动区域均衡发展。
During the past thirty years, with the reform and opening-up policy being carried out in China, remarkable achievements have been made in economic and social construction. The past thirty years is also a process in which our economic system gets adjusted and perfected.
In 1994,China carried out the most extensive and influential reform in industry and commerce taxation. Since then, China's tax system has been stable ,and with the rapid development of its economy, China's tax revenue has also increased strikingly. What's more, since 1996, tax revenue has a higher increase rate than that of GDP. Based on economic principles and intuitive feelings, scholars in China have attached much attention to this phenomenon.
So what causes to China's unusual revenue growth? Is this phenomenon reasonable? Does the current revenue growth break away from economic growth? What the high growth of tax revenue has exerted on economic growth? These questions have been the focus of scholars at home towards the above-mentioned phenomenon.
Now, a new round of reform is carried out on fiscal taxation. Making certain of the above questions will advance the new-round fiscal taxation reform and establish a solid foundation for current taxation policy.
Therefore, according to the characteristics and reasons of tax revenue growth as well as its influence on economic growth, this thesis makes researches on China's tax revenue growth since 1994.The research method undertaken not only follows the general rule of people's understanding of things, but also grasps the main theme that revenue serves to economy, in order to urge continuative economic growth and harmonious relationship of tax and economics.
1. Tax Revenue and the Feature of its Growth
Since 1996,the link relative ratio of China's tax revenue growth has exceeded that of GDP. Tax revenue growth was above normal level from 1994 to 2007.During this period, the tax revenue growth outstripped its plan every year.
From the perspective of items of tax, from 1994 to 2007 income tax was the main force of the revenue growth. From the perspective of industry, the tertiary industry tax growth exceeded that of primary and secondary industries. From the perspective of region, the revenue growth in eastern China is markedly higher than that in other economic belt. From the perspective of economic composition, the growth rate of revenue that came from mixed or shared economy was higher than that from economic sectors. Besides, it released that the central revenue growth was faster than that of the local from 1994 to 2007,which was also one of the basic goals of tax reform carried out in 1994.
2 Revenue Decision and the Reason for its Growth Exceeding that of GDP
2.1 Revenue Decision
Through variance analysis, we find that the average revenue growth rate from 1994 to 2007 is obviously higher than that from 1985 to 1993. At the same time, through variance analysis, it is found that the revenue growth rate from 1985 to 1993 and the revenue growth rate from 1994 to 2007 have homogeneity of variance. The tax-sharing system results in the vast change of the average revenue growth rate, but doesn't affect the trend of revenue growth.
From 1994 to 2007,GDP was the decisive factor of the level of China's tax revenue, but was not significant factor influencing tax revenue growth or the leading to tax revenue growth exceeding GDP. That is to say, from the perspective of tax revenue growth, GDP wasn't its main factor.
Economic benefit is not only the decisive factors of tax revenue level, but also the significant factor influencing tax revenue growth and the leading to tax revenue growth exceeding GDP. As economic benefit is mostly related to income tax, income tax shows the most powerful growth force among all. Meanwhile, as the rise of economic benefit is inseparable from the joint-stock system reform, the revenue growth of mixed or shared economy ranks the highest, which illustrates the property right-oriented reform has achieved success. In addition, the index measuring economic benefit is chosen from industrial enterprises above designated size. This reveals revenue mainly comes from those enterprises.
2.2 The Reasons for Revenue Growth Exceeding that of GDP
There are Incidental factors and durative factors which can account for this phenomenon. When the durative factors reached some level, they will keep driving the revenue to grow faster than GDP. However, only in constant change can occasional factors let the same thing happen .
From 1994 to 2007,what lead to the revenue growth once exceeding GDP were these factors, say, a the rise of collection and management level resulting from the new collection mode "one principle, four systems" which aimed at attacking smuggle, the implementation of Golden Tax Project and refined scientific management: policy factors such as the normalization of non-taxable income and the expiration of preferential tax policy; the increase of economic benefit resulting from the reform of state-owned enterprises and vigorous private economy ; unbalanced inflation and so on. The reasons that bring about revenue growth exceeding GDP are: the current state of industry structure caused by the upgrading of industrial structure; surtax income brought by increase of enterprise revenue and residents' pay ; import business transactions develop faster than GDP.
Among these factors, economic benefit change, the growth of tax collection and management level and the economic benefit level are the main ones that lead to tax revenue growth exceeding that of GDP. And these factors are one-off factors, which implies tax revenue growth exceeding that of GDP isn't stable or sustainable.
3. Impact of Tax Revenue on Economic Growth
From 1994 to 2006, tax revenue and GDP data of our country have co-integration relation. It shows that the tax revenue increase has not broken away from the constraint of economic growth and system of tax-sharing reform in 1994 built up inherent stable connection between tax revenue and economic growth. But the data of tax revenue in 2007 has changed the data generating process of tax growth,and broken the co-integration relation between tax revenue and economic growth.
Impact of tax revenue on the major factors of economic growth propeller (such as investment, labor , consumption , export and technology) and the complex impact of tax revenue in each city on economic growth all indicate that the negative effects tax revenue on economic growth have already appeared. According to Scully Model, the optimum macro tax incidence which boosts economic growth of our country is 18.98%. Combined with the result of Baluo Model, the reasonable level of tax in our country is about 20%.
Proportional macro tax incidence has great influence in investment. Individual income tax has inhibitory action to investment. Moreover, the crowding out effect of government investment to private investment is quite obvious .
Marginal macro tax incidence notably affects the labor force supply and net exports with a multiple of geometric growth in the form of quadratic curve. They have inverted U type relations. The marginal macro tax incidences which promote the rapidest growth of the number of employees in cities and towns and net exports are 19.58% and 12.39% respectively. Net macro tax incidence of imports and exports and net exports have notable negative correlation.
Marginal macro tax incidence and the ultimate resident consumption growth rate assume the U type, shaping the upper parts of a U type and a J type observing from the opposite side. Individual income tax and the consumption of resident have notable negative correlation.
The technology is effected by Marginal macroscopic macro tax incidence. Both of them assume the linearity relation and notable negative correlation. Marginal macroscopic macro tax incidence affect technology according to. fixed proportion.
From 1994 to 2007, China's economic growth displays notable conditional convergence. As far as the whole country is concerned, tax revenue increase already has infirmly retarding effect to economic growth. But the effect o four economic belts differs. The tax revenue growth has driven the economic growth of eastern and central areas, and the effect is especially notable to the east; tax revenue increase inhibits the economic growth of northeast and western areas, and the inhibitory effect is especially notable to the west. Generally speaking, tax revenue has no significant effect to area economic gap.
The tax revenue growth results in the increase of financial expenditure, which leads to economic growth. As far as the whole country is concerned, this effect is notable in theory, except in northeast and western parts of China. Besides, increase of the financial expenditure related to tax revenue has notable effect to area economic growth gap. As far as the whole country is concerned, the gap has been reduced between every province. Judging from each economic area, the gap in central area has been expanded ,while that of other areas is in pace with the whole country.
4.Conclusion and Policy Suggestion
The financial crisis initiated by American subprime crisis has swept the globe. Under the influence of financial crisis, China's economic growth has slowed down. China has adopted a series of tax cuts to stimulate its economy. As a result, tax revenue of our country in 2008 decreased gradually. The high speed increasing state of the tax revenue lasting for more than ten years has ended. Moreover, in the end of 2008, it has sharply presented the negative growth . On the basis of the research results of this thesis and current financial situation, the author has put forward the following policy suggestions.
4.1 The Conclusion
From 1994 to 2007. the tax revenue increase (especially, increase faster than GDP) directly leads to the rise of macro tax incidence's level. Small-bore macro tax incidence in our country has reached its optimum level, but large-bore macro tax incidence (after considering land remise fund especially) has already exceeded its optimum level notably. From 1994 to 2007,the average rate of China's taxable GDP in overall GDP is about 67.17%. China's taxable GDP large-bore macro tax incidence already has reached an average of 36.24%. These data shows that tax base is relatively narrow.
The big difference between nominal tax rate and the actual tax rate in our country calls for the improvement of tax. collection and administration level, and has ensures tax authorities to regulate and control invisible income flexibly. In this case, the tax authorities' enhancement on tax collection and administration is largely related to refund of surplus and budget management without exclusive of refund. Tax revenue in our country mainly comes from industrial enterprises above designated size.
At present, although the tax revenue presents negative growth, 4 trillion financial expenditures should be added newly, thus China is confronted with the pressures of increasing tax revenue and tax cuts.
Marginal macro tax incidence and the ultimate resident consumption growth rate assumes the U type, shaping the first part of U type at present. Technology and the marginal macro tax incidence have significant negative correlation. Net macro tax incidence of imports and exports and net exports show negative correlation. Individual income tax and the resident consume present significant negative correlation.
Tt is discovered that it has positive correlation between macro tax incidence of industrial enterprises above designated size and entire society's investment growth rate, the possible cause may be that enterprise investment is unreasonable at present. The investment increase becomes the source of increase of the government tax revenue. Therefore, in order to gain a higher tax revenue ,the government invest more. Meanwhile , more investment requires that the government collects more taxes. The two factors jointly contribute to tax revenue's high growth and the positive correlation between enterprises' macro tax incidence and investment.
The significant different effects of the tax revenue increase to economic increase can possibly result from the Matthew Effect that the current tax system has played in regional economic development.
4.2 Policy Suggestion
We should keep the macro tax burden about 20%.In the current reform of tax system , attention should be given to expand tax base and lower tax incidence. Build the tax system with income tax and turnover tax as the core.
At present, in the process of tax system reform, nominal tax rate should be reduced to narrow the distance between the nominal tax incidence and the actual tax incidence, but the former should still be a little higher than the latter. It is required to further improve tax-sharing system, cut down shared tax between central government and the local and strive to resolve " double faithful " problem of the tax authorities(mainly central tax organ ); Strictly forbid various forms of refunded revenues, in order to promote the tax management in accordance with the law. Industrial enterprises above designated size ought to be the key subjects of tax revenue monitoring.
Non-tax revenue administration should be enhanced, and bring non-tax revenue into range of state finance management. Transforming administrative fees into taxes is the focal and difficult point in the reform of the fiscal system hereafter. Should strengthen budget administration and bring all government funds into budget.
What's more, attention should be paid to guarantee and develop the tax revenue sources, and help relieve the contradiction between revenue and expenditure. The current increasingly serious contradictions in fiscal revenue and expenditure call for that stamp duty in dealing in securities should be retained .
Reducing marginal macro tax incidence will drive consumption to a multiple growth, and improve total factor productivity and employment situation and economic growth. Individual income tax should be reduced to stimulate resident consumption level and expand domestic demand. China has taken some Countermeasures such as raising tax rebates on some goods to lower the net tax incidence in export, stimulate net export and prevent economic growth from decreasing. It is essential to put policies into practice to guard against tax fraud, evasion.
To implement fiscal performance actively and strengthen the state-owned enterprises' performance appraisal, build scientific, strict and open operating mechanism ,distribute financial funds efficiently, preserve and increase the value of state assets and prevent unreasonable investment.
In the western and northeast part of China, efforts should be made to improve the investment environment to attract enterprises to set up their general headquarters there. To carry out tax refund policy and reduce the refund percentage from 30% to 15%; to improve central government's vertical and horizontal transfer payment capacity, thus to attain the balanced development of these areas.
引文
1 在具体研究中,限于数据质量和可得性,部分问题研究样本区间短于1994-2007年。
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[1]2006年全国税收情况分析.国家税务总局网站.2007年2月16日.http://www.chinatax.gov.cn/n480462/n480483/n480549/5099050.html
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[1]汤一原,周奇.财政收入增长为何高于GDP增长--财政部部长金人庆接受中外记者提问[N].北京日报,2007-3-10
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[1]马栓友,于红霞.地方税与区域经济增长的实证分析--论西部大开发的税收政策取向.管理世界.2003.(5):36-43
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[1]中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室.现代汉语词典(修订本).第三版.北京:商务印书馆.2001:1235
[1][美]罗伊·鲍尔著.许善达译.中国财政政策－税制与中央和地方财政关系.第一版.北京:中国税务出版社,2000:译者序第8页
[1]中央采取全面检查,共查出2001年企业所得税非正常增长估计约200亿元,占到当年税收增量的29.53%。相关数据均来自:于国安.关于企业所得税分享改革的博弈分析[J].财政研究,2002,(09):39
[1]张培森,付广军.我国经济税源的产业与行业税负结构分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2003,(05):6
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[1]感谢汪康懋先生为推动中国学术论文写作国际标准化的努力,本章在研究方法和规范上参考了汪康懋等著2005年上海三联出版社出版的《金融与会计学学位论文汪氏范本》。
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[1]具体参见吕冰洋.李峰.中国税收超GDP增长之迷的实证解释[J].财贸经济,2007,(3):32
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[1]国家税务总局公布的税收收入不包含农业税:2006年税费改革后我国全面废除农业税和农业特产税;目前针对第一产业开征的税收只有烟叶税,2006年和2007年烟叶税分别占全国税收收入总额的0.1%和0.096%,因此对第一产业课税可以近似为零。
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1 数据来源:杨崇春.税收增长的原因及特点[J].税务研究,2005,(03):6
2 尽管在1998年后稍有反弹,中央在2000年1月行文立马给予纠正。
3 数据来源:贾绍华.中国税收流失问题研究[M].中国财政经济出版社,2002:P36
[1]制度外收入采用杨斌(1999)的方法进行测算,由于2003年、2004年统计口径和数据发生较大调整,与以前年度不可比,鉴于对制度外收入的强化管理,认为2003年以来制度外收入只能是有减无增,2003年以后的制度外收入均采用2002年的测算数据代替。
[2]贾康,刘尚希,吴晓娟等.怎样看待税收的增长和减税的主张[J].管理世界,2002,(07):25
[1]剔除了物价影响,1995年我国月收入800元以下具有工资收入人群累积比例83.34%,900元以下100%:1999年800元以下70.01%,1600元以下96.01%;2005年1600元以下74.41%;2300以下88.36%,3600厄以下96.62%,6600元以下99.43%。数据来源:王志刚.中国税收收入高速增长的可持续性分析[J].税务研究,2007,(03):19
[1]2007年证券交易市场空前活跃,股票交易印花税猛增1825亿元,增长 1013.89%。
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[1]详见:高宇明.齐中英.基于时变参数的我国全要素生长率估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,(2):108
[1]Gerald W.Scully 著,袁浩然译.最优税收、经济增长与收入不公[J].经济资料译丛,2007,(04):55—57
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[1]国内外学者采用基尼系数、GE指数和变异系数对我国区域差距的研究得出了基本一致的结论,20世纪80年代中期以来我国区域差距持续扩大,具体参见:张吉鹏.吴桂英.中国地区差距:度量与成因[J].世界经济文汇,2004,(04):62
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[1]可税GDP由胡怡建,潘累驰(2007)年的测算的实际可税GDP与缩减指数调整得出的名义可税GDP。具体参看:胡怡建,潘累驰.1978-2006年我国税收增长率变功成因探索[J].税务研究,2007,(03):6
[1]澳大利亚新南威尔士州,1997年通过了“新南威尔士州印花税法”,2002年新南威尔士州印花税收入占整个地方税收入比重达到41%。具体参见:傅奥星.澳大利亚、新西兰税制管窥[J].上海财税,2003.(11):46
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[38]福建省国家税务局课题组.从福建省看经济结构调整对税收的影响--兼谈促进经济结构优化的税收激励机制.税务研究,2002,(4):36-41
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