我国劳动力流动的地区发展效应研究
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摘要
1978年至今,我国在取得令世人瞩目的经济奇迹同时,社会经济结构也发生了深刻的变迁。劳动力流动作为这种变化的内生动力机制,其迁移原因、选择性以及迁移方式的变化深刻影响和塑造着我国转型时期的经济社会格局。改革开放后,我国劳动力流动的宏观趋势以及迁移内涵都发生了较大的改变,延续百年的自南北向迁移转变为向东南沿海迁移,过去计划型、社会型迁移转变为市场型、经济型迁移,传统农业人口扩散式迁移逐步转变为现代工业就业集聚式迁移。随着劳动力流动规模扩大、频度加快,区域之间经济发展出现分化,该过程集中体现在近20年来中西部地区就业紧缩而东部地区就业扩张的变化上。探索我国劳动力流动的区域分化与区域发展差距两种特征事实的内在关联,成为本文研究的背景和逻辑起点。
针对90年代以后我国出现的区域间反梯度要素集聚现象,基于规模报酬递增和不完全竞争市场假设前提的新经济地理学显然给出了更有力的解释：劳动力流动会引发本地市场效应(Home market effect)、真实价格指数效应(Price index effect)从而形成促使要素集中的“向心力”(Centripetal force),在这种作用力下各生产要素会通过路径依赖和自我预期方式,产生积累并通过集聚不断加强,最终形成区域之间“中心-外围”经济结构并强化地区发展的非均衡性。而劳动力流动同样会产生市场拥挤效应(Market crowding effect),过度竞争导致要素成本上升和利润的下降,形成对经济集中过程的分散力量(Centrifugal force)。因此,劳动力流动对于地区经济要素以及经济行为发散或者收敛的影响,取决于其流动过程中“向心力”和“离心力”两种力量强弱的动态比较。在“劳动力流动—经济集聚—地区差距”解释框架下,通过对我国劳动力流动、要素集聚与地区差异形成机制的经验验证,找出有利我国地区要素集聚的“向心力”和抑制地区生产集聚“离心力”的变量原因,并结合我国劳动力非正式迁移对区际非农产业均衡分布的影响,综合分析我国劳动力流动的地区发展效应,构成本文研究的框架思路。
本文内容主要分为三大部分。第一部分由前三章构成,在梳理相关文献和数据资料的基础上,发现新古典分析框架较好地解释了我国劳动力流动的一般性特征事实,而对于90年代后我国出现的区域要素集聚的特殊规律缺乏足够说服力,因而在第三章建立新经济地理学分析框架,后面章节均在“劳动力流动-经济集聚-地区差异”分析范式下展开。第二部分由四、五、六三章构成,在得到劳动力流动与地区非农产业集聚的描述性证据后,通过建立面板数据模型进一步挖掘我国劳动力流动与地区产业集聚的互动机制,并分析我国非农产业的地理集中在多大程度上解释了总体地区经济发展的不平等,形成对劳动力流动宏观效应的讨论；在对比分析以我国长三角地区与中部五省经济区区就业密度、工资差异与劳动生产率的变化基础上,进一步研究特殊制度背景下,我国长期存在的非正式迁移劳动力供给模式,如何影响区际非农产业的空间均衡分布以及中心地区的产业集聚水平,从而构成了对劳动力流动微观效应的讨论。第三部分由第七章和第八章构成,在对比分析我国固定资产投资的区域分布变化和劳动力流动的区域选择趋势后,进一步利用马丁(1999)中心-外围扩展模型综合评价政府各种区域转移支付的政策效应,并提出相应的对策建议。
本文主要研究成果有四点：第一,“劳动力流动—经济集聚—地区差距”新经济地理学研究范式更有力地解释了我国长期存在的“流动与差距并存悖论”。近30年来,我国地区经济发展差距的主导因素,逐步由地区产业发展的结构效应演化为地区非农产业的集聚效应,而这种非农产业的地理集中显示出较强的东中西部区域板块特征,我国劳动力跨区域流动与地区产业集聚之间表现出互为因果的关联性。第二,通过对中心-外围理论中地区非农产业集聚一般均衡方程的经验验证,发现劳动力迁入、人力资本的集中以及基础交通设施的提升有利于形成地区经济集聚的“向心力”,而劳动力工资水平上升成为影响地区经济集聚的“离心力”。另外,东部地区和中西部地区相同解释变量对地区经济集聚的影响表现出较大差异,成为制定“区域梯度政策”的理论依据。第三,我国“人户分离式”的劳动力流动模式加剧了东部地区劳动力市场的脆弱性,由于要素价格被扭曲,劳动力非正式迁移对于东部地区产业升级与经济集聚质量也产生了不利影响。第四,针对近年来我国劳动力流动趋势与区域产业配置格局变化趋势相背离的现象,在利用中心-外围扩展模型进行政府地区转移支付效应进行分析后,得出政府主导区域工业投资不利于缩小地区差距和提升地区内生经济增长率的结
Since1978the impressive economic miracle has occurred in China. At the same time, the social and economic structure has also undergone a profound change. The flow of labor force as the changes of endogenous power mechanism, the migration causes, selective and migration pattern changes deeply influence and shape economic and social structure of China's transition period. Since the reform and opening up policy, dramatic changes took place in terms of macro trends of China's labor flow and migration connotation. Migration from north and south which lasted for one hundred year transferred into the southeast coastal migration. The past planned, social type migration turned into market-oriented and economic migration. The traditional migration of agricultural population diffusion changed to modern cluster type of migration of industrial employment. With the provincial labor flow scale expanding, frequency speeding up and regional economic development differentiation, this process is embodied in that changes occurred in the past twenty years in respect of the Midwest employment contraction and coastal area employment expansion. The logic starting point of the thesis lies in exploring the inner connection of two features which are regional differentiation of provincial labor flow and regional development difference.
As to the regional inverse gradient element agglomeration phenomenon appeared in our country after the1990's, the new economic geography based on hypothesis of increasing return to scale economy and imperfect competition market obviously provided a more powerful explanation. The cross-regional labor flow will result in home market effect and price index effect, so as to form centripetal force which concentrates the elements. With the effect of this force, all the production factors accumulation occurred in the path dependence and self expectation and is strengthened in the way of accumulative effect, finally leading to 'core-periphery' economic structure between different areas and strengthening the imbalance of regional development. However, cross-regional labor flow can also cause market crowding effect, excessive competition leading to the increasing cost of production factors and profit decline, in which forming centrifugal force in the economic concentration process. Therefore, the influence of labor mobility on regional economic factors, divergent or convergent economic behavior, depends on dynamic comparison of the strength between' centripetal force' and 'centrifugal force' in the flow process. The framework of the thesis is constituted by variable reasons in which benefit the 'centripetal force' of regional elements concentration and suppress the 'centrifugal force' of regional production accumulation are found out through experience verification of formation mechanism in labor mobility, element concentration and regional difference. Furthermore, it also includes the comprehensive analysis of regional development effect of China's provincial labor flow, in combination with the influence of China's informal labor force migration on equilibrium distribution of interregional non-agricultural industries.
This article is divided into three parts. The first part is constituted by the first three chapters, on the basis of combing the literature and data, it found neoclassical analytical framework to explain the general characteristics of the fact that labor mobility in China, lack of convincing enough for the special laws of the1990s China experienced regional concentration factor, thus the establishment of new economic geography analytical framework in the third chapter, the later chapters in the framework of "labor mobility-economic concentration-regional differences ". The second part consists of four, five, six chapters, descriptive evidence of the non-farm labor mobility and regional industrial agglomeration, through the establishment of a panel data model to further tap the mechanism of interaction of labor mobility in China and regions gathered in the production, and analyze the geographic concentration of the non-agricultural industries in China explain the extent to which the inequality of the overall regional economic development, forming the discussion of macroeconomic effects of labor mobility; comparative analysis on the basis of China's Yangtze River Delta region and the five provinces in central "mere employment density","wage differentials" and "changes in labor productivity", further study of special institutional context, China's long-standing informal migration of labor supply mode affects the spatial equilibrium distribution of the inter-regional non-agricultural industries as well as the central level of industrial agglomeration, forming the discussion of microeconomic effects of labor mobility. The third part consists of chapters VII and Ⅷ, after the comparative analysis of China's investment in fixed assets Changes in regional distribution and labor area flow trends, comprehensive evaluating the government various regional transfer payments to the effect of policies, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions by Martin model.
The main research results of the thesis are summarized into four points. Firstly, the "labor mobility-economic concentration-regional differences "paradigm to explain more effectively our long-standing liquidity gap coexist paradox. China's regional economic development gap between the dominant factor gradually transformed into concentration effect of the non-agricultural industries of the Regional Industrial Development in nearly30years. The geographic concentration of the non-agricultural industries showed strong plate characteristics of eastern, central and western regional. China's labor across the region between the flow and the regional industrial agglomeration demonstrate the relevance of each other. Secondly, through experience verification of general equilibrium equation in the core-periphery theory, labor mobility, concentration of human capital and the improvement of traffic infrastructure is benefit to the formation of'centripetal force'of regional economic agglomeration. And the increase of labor wages becomes 'centrifugal force'of regional economic agglomeration. In addition, the influence of the same variables on the regional economy concentration in coastal area and inland area indicated a great difference, to be the reason to establish regional gradient policy. Thirdly, labor force flow mode of separation between the household register and population in China increased vulnerability in coastal labor market. And informal labor migration under the distortions of factor price has a negative influence on industrial upgrade in core area and agglomeration level. Fourthly, recent years witness deviation phenomenon between the cross-regional labor force flow trend in our country and regional industrial growth pattern. In usage of core-periphery extension model for payment effect of regional government transfer for analysis, conclusion is that the industrial investment of government dominating regions has an adverse impact on narrowing the regional differences and increasing economic growth rate within regions.
针对90年代以后我国出现的区域间反梯度要素集聚现象,基于规模报酬递增和不完全竞争市场假设前提的新经济地理学显然给出了更有力的解释：劳动力流动会引发本地市场效应(Home market effect)、真实价格指数效应(Price index effect)从而形成促使要素集中的“向心力”(Centripetal force),在这种作用力下各生产要素会通过路径依赖和自我预期方式,产生积累并通过集聚不断加强,最终形成区域之间“中心-外围”经济结构并强化地区发展的非均衡性。而劳动力流动同样会产生市场拥挤效应(Market crowding effect),过度竞争导致要素成本上升和利润的下降,形成对经济集中过程的分散力量(Centrifugal force)。因此,劳动力流动对于地区经济要素以及经济行为发散或者收敛的影响,取决于其流动过程中“向心力”和“离心力”两种力量强弱的动态比较。在“劳动力流动—经济集聚—地区差距”解释框架下,通过对我国劳动力流动、要素集聚与地区差异形成机制的经验验证,找出有利我国地区要素集聚的“向心力”和抑制地区生产集聚“离心力”的变量原因,并结合我国劳动力非正式迁移对区际非农产业均衡分布的影响,综合分析我国劳动力流动的地区发展效应,构成本文研究的框架思路。
本文内容主要分为三大部分。第一部分由前三章构成,在梳理相关文献和数据资料的基础上,发现新古典分析框架较好地解释了我国劳动力流动的一般性特征事实,而对于90年代后我国出现的区域要素集聚的特殊规律缺乏足够说服力,因而在第三章建立新经济地理学分析框架,后面章节均在“劳动力流动-经济集聚-地区差异”分析范式下展开。第二部分由四、五、六三章构成,在得到劳动力流动与地区非农产业集聚的描述性证据后,通过建立面板数据模型进一步挖掘我国劳动力流动与地区产业集聚的互动机制,并分析我国非农产业的地理集中在多大程度上解释了总体地区经济发展的不平等,形成对劳动力流动宏观效应的讨论；在对比分析以我国长三角地区与中部五省经济区区就业密度、工资差异与劳动生产率的变化基础上,进一步研究特殊制度背景下,我国长期存在的非正式迁移劳动力供给模式,如何影响区际非农产业的空间均衡分布以及中心地区的产业集聚水平,从而构成了对劳动力流动微观效应的讨论。第三部分由第七章和第八章构成,在对比分析我国固定资产投资的区域分布变化和劳动力流动的区域选择趋势后,进一步利用马丁(1999)中心-外围扩展模型综合评价政府各种区域转移支付的政策效应,并提出相应的对策建议。
本文主要研究成果有四点：第一,“劳动力流动—经济集聚—地区差距”新经济地理学研究范式更有力地解释了我国长期存在的“流动与差距并存悖论”。近30年来,我国地区经济发展差距的主导因素,逐步由地区产业发展的结构效应演化为地区非农产业的集聚效应,而这种非农产业的地理集中显示出较强的东中西部区域板块特征,我国劳动力跨区域流动与地区产业集聚之间表现出互为因果的关联性。第二,通过对中心-外围理论中地区非农产业集聚一般均衡方程的经验验证,发现劳动力迁入、人力资本的集中以及基础交通设施的提升有利于形成地区经济集聚的“向心力”,而劳动力工资水平上升成为影响地区经济集聚的“离心力”。另外,东部地区和中西部地区相同解释变量对地区经济集聚的影响表现出较大差异,成为制定“区域梯度政策”的理论依据。第三,我国“人户分离式”的劳动力流动模式加剧了东部地区劳动力市场的脆弱性,由于要素价格被扭曲,劳动力非正式迁移对于东部地区产业升级与经济集聚质量也产生了不利影响。第四,针对近年来我国劳动力流动趋势与区域产业配置格局变化趋势相背离的现象,在利用中心-外围扩展模型进行政府地区转移支付效应进行分析后,得出政府主导区域工业投资不利于缩小地区差距和提升地区内生经济增长率的结
Since1978the impressive economic miracle has occurred in China. At the same time, the social and economic structure has also undergone a profound change. The flow of labor force as the changes of endogenous power mechanism, the migration causes, selective and migration pattern changes deeply influence and shape economic and social structure of China's transition period. Since the reform and opening up policy, dramatic changes took place in terms of macro trends of China's labor flow and migration connotation. Migration from north and south which lasted for one hundred year transferred into the southeast coastal migration. The past planned, social type migration turned into market-oriented and economic migration. The traditional migration of agricultural population diffusion changed to modern cluster type of migration of industrial employment. With the provincial labor flow scale expanding, frequency speeding up and regional economic development differentiation, this process is embodied in that changes occurred in the past twenty years in respect of the Midwest employment contraction and coastal area employment expansion. The logic starting point of the thesis lies in exploring the inner connection of two features which are regional differentiation of provincial labor flow and regional development difference.
As to the regional inverse gradient element agglomeration phenomenon appeared in our country after the1990's, the new economic geography based on hypothesis of increasing return to scale economy and imperfect competition market obviously provided a more powerful explanation. The cross-regional labor flow will result in home market effect and price index effect, so as to form centripetal force which concentrates the elements. With the effect of this force, all the production factors accumulation occurred in the path dependence and self expectation and is strengthened in the way of accumulative effect, finally leading to 'core-periphery' economic structure between different areas and strengthening the imbalance of regional development. However, cross-regional labor flow can also cause market crowding effect, excessive competition leading to the increasing cost of production factors and profit decline, in which forming centrifugal force in the economic concentration process. Therefore, the influence of labor mobility on regional economic factors, divergent or convergent economic behavior, depends on dynamic comparison of the strength between' centripetal force' and 'centrifugal force' in the flow process. The framework of the thesis is constituted by variable reasons in which benefit the 'centripetal force' of regional elements concentration and suppress the 'centrifugal force' of regional production accumulation are found out through experience verification of formation mechanism in labor mobility, element concentration and regional difference. Furthermore, it also includes the comprehensive analysis of regional development effect of China's provincial labor flow, in combination with the influence of China's informal labor force migration on equilibrium distribution of interregional non-agricultural industries.
This article is divided into three parts. The first part is constituted by the first three chapters, on the basis of combing the literature and data, it found neoclassical analytical framework to explain the general characteristics of the fact that labor mobility in China, lack of convincing enough for the special laws of the1990s China experienced regional concentration factor, thus the establishment of new economic geography analytical framework in the third chapter, the later chapters in the framework of "labor mobility-economic concentration-regional differences ". The second part consists of four, five, six chapters, descriptive evidence of the non-farm labor mobility and regional industrial agglomeration, through the establishment of a panel data model to further tap the mechanism of interaction of labor mobility in China and regions gathered in the production, and analyze the geographic concentration of the non-agricultural industries in China explain the extent to which the inequality of the overall regional economic development, forming the discussion of macroeconomic effects of labor mobility; comparative analysis on the basis of China's Yangtze River Delta region and the five provinces in central "mere employment density","wage differentials" and "changes in labor productivity", further study of special institutional context, China's long-standing informal migration of labor supply mode affects the spatial equilibrium distribution of the inter-regional non-agricultural industries as well as the central level of industrial agglomeration, forming the discussion of microeconomic effects of labor mobility. The third part consists of chapters VII and Ⅷ, after the comparative analysis of China's investment in fixed assets Changes in regional distribution and labor area flow trends, comprehensive evaluating the government various regional transfer payments to the effect of policies, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions by Martin model.
The main research results of the thesis are summarized into four points. Firstly, the "labor mobility-economic concentration-regional differences "paradigm to explain more effectively our long-standing liquidity gap coexist paradox. China's regional economic development gap between the dominant factor gradually transformed into concentration effect of the non-agricultural industries of the Regional Industrial Development in nearly30years. The geographic concentration of the non-agricultural industries showed strong plate characteristics of eastern, central and western regional. China's labor across the region between the flow and the regional industrial agglomeration demonstrate the relevance of each other. Secondly, through experience verification of general equilibrium equation in the core-periphery theory, labor mobility, concentration of human capital and the improvement of traffic infrastructure is benefit to the formation of'centripetal force'of regional economic agglomeration. And the increase of labor wages becomes 'centrifugal force'of regional economic agglomeration. In addition, the influence of the same variables on the regional economy concentration in coastal area and inland area indicated a great difference, to be the reason to establish regional gradient policy. Thirdly, labor force flow mode of separation between the household register and population in China increased vulnerability in coastal labor market. And informal labor migration under the distortions of factor price has a negative influence on industrial upgrade in core area and agglomeration level. Fourthly, recent years witness deviation phenomenon between the cross-regional labor force flow trend in our country and regional industrial growth pattern. In usage of core-periphery extension model for payment effect of regional government transfer for analysis, conclusion is that the industrial investment of government dominating regions has an adverse impact on narrowing the regional differences and increasing economic growth rate within regions.
引文
1 蔡昉：《中国流动人口问题》,：化京社会科学文献出版社,2007年版。
1 中国统计摘要2010[M],中国统计出版社，2011版。
1 Thompson,E.P.(1966),The Making of the English Working Class,New York:Vintage Books.
1 阿瑟·刘易斯：《二元经济论》,北京经济学院出版社,1989年,第70页。
1 Harry T.Oshima. "The Raina-Fei Model of Economic Development:Comment".The American Economic Review. Vol.53,No.3,Jun.1963,pp.448-452.
1 Dale W.Jorgenson. "The Development of a Dual Economy" The Economic Journal. Vol.71,No.282, Jun.1961, pp.309-334
1 Ottaviano,Gianmarco and Thisse,Jacques-Fransois.New Economic Geography:what about the N? CORE DISCUSSION PAPER,2004,65.
1 关于D-S模型全面综述请见Matsuyama,1995. Complementarities and cumulative process in models of monopolistic competion.Journal of Economic Literature 33:701-729.
1 关于冰山运输成本作为不同形式的交易成本的运用详见Helpman,E.and P.R.Krugman.1985.Market Structcure and Foreign Trade.Cambridge,MA:MIT Press.
2 关于DSK模型的详细证明和推导请见Krugman,P.R.1980.Scale economics.product differentiation,and the pattern of trade. American Economic Review 70:950-959.
1 详细推导请见Head K., T.Mayer, and J, Ries.2002.On the pervasiveness of the home market effect, Economica 69:371-390.
1 Paul Krugman. Increasing Returns and Economic Geography. Journal of Political Economy, Vol.99, No.3 (Jun., 1991),pp.486.
1 权衡著,左学金编：《2010年率先转型中的长三角(2010版)》,社会科学义献出版社2010版。
1 各地区称谓有所不同,上海称“外来人口”；浙江称“流动人口”：江苏称“暂住人口”。
1 范剑勇 2007计算我国劳动生产率对就业密度的弹性系数为0.12%,工资对就业密度的弹性系数为0.057-0.061%。
2 Casetti, E.1980.Equilibrium population partitions between urban and agricultural occupations.Geographical Analysis 12:47-54.
1 马丁模型推导过程详见：Philippe Martin. Public Policies, Regional Inequalities and Growth [J]. Journal of Public Economics,1999,73:85-105.
1 具体证明详见Philippe Martin. Public Policies. Regional Inequalities and Growthk [J]. Journal of Public Economics,1999,73:103.
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1 范剑勇 2007计算我国劳动生产率对就业密度的弹性系数为0.12%,工资对就业密度的弹性系数为0.057-0.061%。
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1 马丁模型推导过程详见：Philippe Martin. Public Policies, Regional Inequalities and Growth [J]. Journal of Public Economics,1999,73:85-105.
1 具体证明详见Philippe Martin. Public Policies. Regional Inequalities and Growthk [J]. Journal of Public Economics,1999,73:103.
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