基于水足迹的区域广义水资源动态协调与控制
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摘要
水是生命之源，是构成生态环境的基本要素，也是维持经济社会可持续发展的重要物质资源。随着我国经济社会的快速发展和人民生活水平不断提高，水资源供需矛盾日益凸显。我国人均水资源占有量仅为世界平均水平的1/4，且在时间和空间分布上极度不均，部分区域仍然存在水资源低效利用、过度开发和不达标排放等现象，进一步加剧了水资源短缺和水环境污染问题，严重影响了我国社会经济的可持续发展。在我国城镇化和经济转型的关键时期，如何对总量有限的水资源进行高效开发、协调和利用至关重要。本文为实现区域内、区域间水资源的可持续利用，以区域广义水资源为对象，从水资源足迹视角探索区域水资源协调与控制的有效途径，文章主要内容包括：
首先，本文对我国水资源分布特征和短缺现状进行了分析，阐明了进行区域水资源协调与控制的必要性，在此基础上系统地分析了水资源协调的六个基本要素、三种模式、三类方法和四种典型机制，并分别运用基尼系数和不平衡系数，从水资源禀赋、水资源协调两个方面，深入研究了我国七大区域水资源对人口、GDP和面积等三个经济发展要素在时间维度、空间维度上的不公平和不均衡程度，为提高水资源协调和利用效率提供决策依据。
其次，从实时性、社会性和高效性三个方面分析了进行区域广义水资源监控的必要性，设计了基于虚拟水资源情报和多阈值约束的监控体系，构建了水资源足迹灾变预测模型，通过灰色拓扑预测方法对其实现了可视化，借鉴警戒系统原理研究了区域广义水资源足迹灾害强度预警，通过上下界函数绘制了预警控制图，为实现对区域广义水资源情况的实时监控、灾变趋势的预测和灾害强度的预警提供理论参考。
然后，系统分析了经济社会系统和自然生态系统水资源循环流动原理，针对传统水资源协调方式难以解决现有水资源短缺和水环境污染现象的问题，研究了运用“自然—社会”二元水循环模式协调区域广义水资源的流程，分析了区域广义水资源系统结构，构建了基于水足迹核算的区域水资源协调优化模型，从经济、社会、生态和效率四个方面，建立了区域广义水资源协调后效性分析指标体系，为评价其协调成效提供支持。
最后，以天津市为实例，针对天津市经济社会现状和水资源状况测算了其水资源足迹，并进行了水资源足迹构成分析和虚拟水资源贸易分析、经济效益分析、承载力分析，通过灰色拓扑和灾害强度预警对出现水资源足迹灾变年份进行了预测，并引入生态—经济效益协调度进行了初步协调，构建了协调后效性评价指标体系，对各指标进行了敏感性分析和总体后效性分析，以此为依据从水资源全生命周期角度提出了协调与控制的相应策略，为天津市及同类区域水资源的高效利用和协调提供决策参考。
Water resource is not only the source of life and the basic elements of theecological environment, but also important material resources to maintain sustainableeconomic and social development. The contradiction between water supply anddemand has become increasingly prominent, with China's rapid development ofeconomy and society, and improvement of people's living standards. China's percapita possession of water resources is only1/4of the world's average, and isextremely uneven on the temporal and spatial distribution. Irrational phenomenonsuch as inefficient use of water resources, over-exploitation and substandard emissionis still remain in some regions, further exacerbating the shortage and pollutionproblem of water resource, which seriously affects the sustainable socio-economicdevelopment. How to achieve efficient development, coordination and utilization ofthe limited water resources is critical in the pivotal period of China's urbanization andeconomic transformation. For the sustainable utilization of the regional andinter-regional water resources, the dissertation focus on generalized water resources ofregion to explore an effective way of coordination and control regional waterresources from the perspective of water footprint. The main content is as follows:
Firstly, the distribution characteristics and the shortage status of China's waterresources were analyzed. The necessity for coordination and control of regional waterresources was clarified. And the six basic elements, three modes, three types and fourtypical mechanisms of water resources coordination were systematically analyzed.The inequities and uneven in-depth study of China's seven regional water resources onpopulation, GDP and area in the time dimension and the spatial dimension were madethrough the Gini coefficient and the unbalance factor from the two aspects includingendowment and coordinate of water resources. That could provide basis for decisionmaking about improving the coordination and utilization efficiency of waterresources.
Secondly, the necessity for monitoring of regional generalized water resourceswas analyzed from real-time, social and efficiency. The monitoring system based onintelligence of virtual water and multi-threshold constraint was designed. The prediction model of water footprint disaster was constructed, and gray topologyprediction method was used for its visualization. Disaster intensity warning ofregional generalized water footprint studied according to the principle of warningsystem. The warning and controlling map was drawn through the function of upperand lower bounds. All of that could provide a theoretical reference for real-timemonitoring, forecast of catastrophic trend and early warning of disaster intensity ofregional generalized water resources.
Thirdly, the liquidity principle of economic-social systems and naturalecosystems were systematically analyzed. The process for coordination of generalizedwater resources with “nature-society” dualistic water circulation mode was analyzedin order to deal with the problem that traditional coordinated manner of waterresources is difficult to solve the existing water shortages and water pollutionphenomenon. The structure of generalized regional water resources system wasanalyzed. Coordination and optimization model for regional water resources based onwater footprint was constructed. Then the analysis index system for coordinationaftereffect of generalized regional water resources was established from the economic,social, ecological and efficiency aspects to provide support for evaluation theco-ordination performance.
Finally, Water footprint of Tianjin was estimated based on its economic-socialand water resources status. The composition analysis of water footprint, trade analysis,economic efficiency analysis and capacity analysis of virtual water were made. Thedisastrous years of water footprint were predicted through Graystrength and disasterstrength warning. The coordination degree of ecological-economic benefits wasintroduced and the initial coordination was made. The analysis index system forcoordination aftereffect, and sensitivity the overall aftereffect analysis of indicatorswere made. Then the appropriate coordination and control strategy from theperspective of the whole life cycle of water resources proposed in order to provide areference for the efficient utilization and coordination of water resource for Tianjinand similar regions.
首先，本文对我国水资源分布特征和短缺现状进行了分析，阐明了进行区域水资源协调与控制的必要性，在此基础上系统地分析了水资源协调的六个基本要素、三种模式、三类方法和四种典型机制，并分别运用基尼系数和不平衡系数，从水资源禀赋、水资源协调两个方面，深入研究了我国七大区域水资源对人口、GDP和面积等三个经济发展要素在时间维度、空间维度上的不公平和不均衡程度，为提高水资源协调和利用效率提供决策依据。
其次，从实时性、社会性和高效性三个方面分析了进行区域广义水资源监控的必要性，设计了基于虚拟水资源情报和多阈值约束的监控体系，构建了水资源足迹灾变预测模型，通过灰色拓扑预测方法对其实现了可视化，借鉴警戒系统原理研究了区域广义水资源足迹灾害强度预警，通过上下界函数绘制了预警控制图，为实现对区域广义水资源情况的实时监控、灾变趋势的预测和灾害强度的预警提供理论参考。
然后，系统分析了经济社会系统和自然生态系统水资源循环流动原理，针对传统水资源协调方式难以解决现有水资源短缺和水环境污染现象的问题，研究了运用“自然—社会”二元水循环模式协调区域广义水资源的流程，分析了区域广义水资源系统结构，构建了基于水足迹核算的区域水资源协调优化模型，从经济、社会、生态和效率四个方面，建立了区域广义水资源协调后效性分析指标体系，为评价其协调成效提供支持。
最后，以天津市为实例，针对天津市经济社会现状和水资源状况测算了其水资源足迹，并进行了水资源足迹构成分析和虚拟水资源贸易分析、经济效益分析、承载力分析，通过灰色拓扑和灾害强度预警对出现水资源足迹灾变年份进行了预测，并引入生态—经济效益协调度进行了初步协调，构建了协调后效性评价指标体系，对各指标进行了敏感性分析和总体后效性分析，以此为依据从水资源全生命周期角度提出了协调与控制的相应策略，为天津市及同类区域水资源的高效利用和协调提供决策参考。
Water resource is not only the source of life and the basic elements of theecological environment, but also important material resources to maintain sustainableeconomic and social development. The contradiction between water supply anddemand has become increasingly prominent, with China's rapid development ofeconomy and society, and improvement of people's living standards. China's percapita possession of water resources is only1/4of the world's average, and isextremely uneven on the temporal and spatial distribution. Irrational phenomenonsuch as inefficient use of water resources, over-exploitation and substandard emissionis still remain in some regions, further exacerbating the shortage and pollutionproblem of water resource, which seriously affects the sustainable socio-economicdevelopment. How to achieve efficient development, coordination and utilization ofthe limited water resources is critical in the pivotal period of China's urbanization andeconomic transformation. For the sustainable utilization of the regional andinter-regional water resources, the dissertation focus on generalized water resources ofregion to explore an effective way of coordination and control regional waterresources from the perspective of water footprint. The main content is as follows:
Firstly, the distribution characteristics and the shortage status of China's waterresources were analyzed. The necessity for coordination and control of regional waterresources was clarified. And the six basic elements, three modes, three types and fourtypical mechanisms of water resources coordination were systematically analyzed.The inequities and uneven in-depth study of China's seven regional water resources onpopulation, GDP and area in the time dimension and the spatial dimension were madethrough the Gini coefficient and the unbalance factor from the two aspects includingendowment and coordinate of water resources. That could provide basis for decisionmaking about improving the coordination and utilization efficiency of waterresources.
Secondly, the necessity for monitoring of regional generalized water resourceswas analyzed from real-time, social and efficiency. The monitoring system based onintelligence of virtual water and multi-threshold constraint was designed. The prediction model of water footprint disaster was constructed, and gray topologyprediction method was used for its visualization. Disaster intensity warning ofregional generalized water footprint studied according to the principle of warningsystem. The warning and controlling map was drawn through the function of upperand lower bounds. All of that could provide a theoretical reference for real-timemonitoring, forecast of catastrophic trend and early warning of disaster intensity ofregional generalized water resources.
Thirdly, the liquidity principle of economic-social systems and naturalecosystems were systematically analyzed. The process for coordination of generalizedwater resources with “nature-society” dualistic water circulation mode was analyzedin order to deal with the problem that traditional coordinated manner of waterresources is difficult to solve the existing water shortages and water pollutionphenomenon. The structure of generalized regional water resources system wasanalyzed. Coordination and optimization model for regional water resources based onwater footprint was constructed. Then the analysis index system for coordinationaftereffect of generalized regional water resources was established from the economic,social, ecological and efficiency aspects to provide support for evaluation theco-ordination performance.
Finally, Water footprint of Tianjin was estimated based on its economic-socialand water resources status. The composition analysis of water footprint, trade analysis,economic efficiency analysis and capacity analysis of virtual water were made. Thedisastrous years of water footprint were predicted through Graystrength and disasterstrength warning. The coordination degree of ecological-economic benefits wasintroduced and the initial coordination was made. The analysis index system forcoordination aftereffect, and sensitivity the overall aftereffect analysis of indicatorswere made. Then the appropriate coordination and control strategy from theperspective of the whole life cycle of water resources proposed in order to provide areference for the efficient utilization and coordination of water resource for Tianjinand similar regions.
引文
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