县域金融信贷风险管理研究
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摘要
本文以我国金融业的全面对外开放和社会主义新农村建设为背景,以国内外县域金融信贷风险管理研究的理论为基础,从县域金融信贷风险管理的现状出发,按照问卷调查和典型调查相结合、实证分析和规范分析相结合、定性分析和定量分析相结合等方法,系统研究我国县域金融信贷风险管理问题,确定县域金融信贷风险管理防范、控制、化解及长效机制,构造了我国县域金融信贷风险的全过程管理系统。基本观点为:
第一,本文从界定县域金融概念入手,系统地分析了县域金融信贷资金的运动特点、信贷风险的内涵和特征,对县域金融信贷主要风险源和风险值的测定进行探讨,认为县域金融信贷资金运动与一般性金融信贷资金运动有着明显的差异,县域金融信贷风险存在着普遍性高风险、静态窒息性风险和动态震荡性风险三个基本特征,农业信贷风险源是县域金融信贷风险的核心,县域金融信贷风险管理应重点关注农民贷款、农村中小企业贷款和农村公共产品贷款三个风险点。
第二,借鉴国际最新的信贷风险类别划分,提出我国县域金融信贷风险的主要类型是政策风险、环境风险、信用风险、操作风险、市场风险和法律风险6个类型。在此基础上,对我国县域金融信贷风险生成机理的因素进行了综合分析和实证研究,认为,金融生态的劣质性是导致县域金融信贷风险产生的土壤和温床,县域金融信贷风险存在着行政制度的不规范、信贷制度的不规范、法律制度的不规范和信用制度的不规范等几个制度性缺陷。通过对县域金融信贷风险生成机理的研究,为县域金融信贷风险的防范、控制和化解提供科学依据。
第三,根据国内外风险管理原理和乡村银行经验,从事前风险防范的角度出发,从借款人的信用估测、贷款前对贷款风险度的计量、主要风险管理环节的监测与处置,分析县域金融信贷风险防范的一般性方法,重点探讨分析农民贷款信贷风险的防范;农村中小企业贷款信贷风险防范;农村公共产品信贷风险防范,设计县域金融信贷风险防范方案。
第四,县域金融信贷风险控制是县域金融信贷风险管理的重要环节。本文从事中风险控制的角度出发,引入定量贷后风险分析方式,建立贷后风险数据模型,通过量化数据准确地识别贷后风险。依据Zeta分析法、复审模型、分类和回归树、信贷风险模糊综合评价法对县域金融信贷风险进行实证分析。通过个体信用跟踪分析和整体信用预警分析,提出分散贷款、合理定价和贷款政策科学、适用等县域金融信贷风险控制的基本方法。从法人治理、人力资源、内控体系、金融文化方面,对我国县域金融机构信贷风险进行控制,构造金融生态的内优化机制。
第五,在汲取国内外先金融信贷风险管理经验的基础上,从事后风险化解的角度出发,重点探讨资本充足率和呆账贷款准备金制度建设,增强县域金融自身化解信贷风险的能力;系统地总结整理了国内银行业的多种方法,结合我国县域金融的实际,在资产清收保全、资产盘活激活、资产抵债补偿、资产打包出售等方面进行理论探讨和方法创新,从而突破传统的化解信贷风险方法,提高县域金融化解信贷风险效率。
第六,结合县域金融的实际,以县域金融主要风险点为依据,从财政补贴政策、农地抵押制度、农村中小企业信用担保体系、农业保险创新和农村金融体系再造等方面进行研究,重点解决农民贷款、农村中小企业贷款和农村公共产品贷款等相关信贷风险的配套措施和宏观战略。一是通过增加财政补贴、增强货币政策稳定、东西融资互动、金融生态建设等途径,消除县域金融风险;二是以国内外农地金融制度成功的经验为依据,分析我国农地金融制度改革过程中出现的问题,解决农民贷款抵押担保产生的信用风险问题;三是构造县域中小企业担保体系,解决农村中小企业贷款信用风险问题;四是进行县域农业保险制度创新,解决县域金融环境风险问题;五是通过农村金融体系的再造,构造多元化的县域金融格局,解决县域金融的结构性问题,为我国县域金融信贷风险全过程控制提供保障。
This paper had taken the fully open of China's financial industry and construction of new socialism countryside for the background. And it was based on the domestic and international financial credit risk management theory and practices. China county financial credit risk management system was systematically studied from the current situation of county financial credit risk management according to the combinations of questionnaire surveys and typical investigations, empirical analysis and normative analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. So the prevention, control, resolving and long-term mechanism for county financial credit risk management were identified and entire process for our county financial credit risk management system was constructed. The basic viewpoints are as follows:
Firstly, this paper systematically analyzed the movement characteristics of the county financial credit funds, content and features of credit risk, and discussed the main risk source of county financial credit and measurement of risk value. It was thought that the county financial credit capital movement was obviously different from that of general financial credit funds. County financial credit risk had three basic characteristics of universality of high-risk, static suffocation risk and dynamic tremor risk. Agriculture credit risk source was the core of county financial credit risk. County financial credit risk management should focused on three risk points of farmer’s loans, rural small and middle corporation loan, and rural public products loans.
Secondly, the major categories of our county financial credit risk were made, as follow: policy risks, environmental risks, credit risks, operational risk, market risk and legal risk, total six types, by taking advantages of the latest international credit risk classification. Comprehensive analysis and empirical research of the factors of our county financial credit risk formation mechanism were studies on this basis. It was thought that the poor financial ecosystem was the soil and potential hotbed for county financial credit risks germination, and county financial credit risk existed non-standardized administrative systems, non-standardized credit system, and non-standardized legal systems and non-standardized credit systems, and several other system-related defects. A scientific basis was provided for prevention, control and resolving for county financial credit risk through the research of formation mechanism of county financial credit risk.
Third, according to the principles of domestic and international risk management and experience of rural banks, and in the view of risks pre-prevention, and from the borrower's credit estimation, the risk measurement before the loan, the monitoring and disposal of main risk management, general ways for county financial credit risk prevention were analyzed. Discussions of analysis of the farmer loan credit risk prevention, rural small and middle corporation lending credit risk prevention, and rural public goods credit risk prevention were focused on. County financial credit risk prevention program were designed.
Fourth, the county financial credit risk control was essential in the county financial credit risk management. In the viewpoint of risk control point, and with the introduction of quantitative credit risk analysis and establishment of credit risk data model after the loan, high-risk loans were identified through accurate quantitative data. The county financial credit risk was empirically analyzed by Zeta analysis, review model, classification and regression trees, and credit risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Through individual credit tracking analysis and overall credit warning analysis, scattered loans, county financial credit risk control methods of reasonable pricing, and scientific and applicable lending policies, were brought forward. To control credit risk of our county financial institutions from the aspects of corporate governance, human resources, inner-control system, financial culture, the financial optimal ecological mechanisms can be constructed.
Fifth, with the basis of from taking the domestic and international advanced research experience, the construction of capital adequacy ratio and bad loan provisioning system and strengthening their capabilities of resolving county financial credit risk were emphasized discussed, and the various methods of domestic banking were systematically summed up, from the perspective of defusing risk. With the basis of the actuality of county finance, theory discussion and methodology innovation were conducted on clearing the asset protection, asset invigorated activation, repossessed assets compensation, packing sale of assets, etc. So the traditional methods to resolve credit risk were broke through and county financial efficiency of resolving credit risk was improved. Lastly, focusing discussion on the inherent characteristics of loan verification system, formation mechanism, and learning from the advanced experiences of other countries, and constructing China's county financial loan verification system.
Sixth, with the actuality of county finance and based on the county financial main risk points, studies focused on solving farmers loans, and rural small and middle corporation loans and rural public products loans and other related to credit risk measures and macro strategies were made from financial subsidy policy, farmland pledge system, rural small and middle corporation credit guarantee system, agricultural insurance innovation and the rural financial system recycling, etc. Firstly, county financial risks were eliminated through increasing financial subsidies and strengthening stability in monetary policy, financing interactive things, financial ecological construction, etc.; Second, solving the credit risk arising from peasants’collateral for a loan through the successful experience of domestic and international financial system, analysis of the problems China's agricultural land financial system reforms; Third, construction of county small and middle corporation guarantee system and solving rural credit risk of small and middle corporation loans; Forth, solving county financial environmental risks through innovation research on county agricultural insurance system; Fifth, solving county financial structural problems through recycling of the rural financial system and constructing diversified financial optimization pattern, and providing the guarantee for our county financial credit risk control of the whole process of security
第一,本文从界定县域金融概念入手,系统地分析了县域金融信贷资金的运动特点、信贷风险的内涵和特征,对县域金融信贷主要风险源和风险值的测定进行探讨,认为县域金融信贷资金运动与一般性金融信贷资金运动有着明显的差异,县域金融信贷风险存在着普遍性高风险、静态窒息性风险和动态震荡性风险三个基本特征,农业信贷风险源是县域金融信贷风险的核心,县域金融信贷风险管理应重点关注农民贷款、农村中小企业贷款和农村公共产品贷款三个风险点。
第二,借鉴国际最新的信贷风险类别划分,提出我国县域金融信贷风险的主要类型是政策风险、环境风险、信用风险、操作风险、市场风险和法律风险6个类型。在此基础上,对我国县域金融信贷风险生成机理的因素进行了综合分析和实证研究,认为,金融生态的劣质性是导致县域金融信贷风险产生的土壤和温床,县域金融信贷风险存在着行政制度的不规范、信贷制度的不规范、法律制度的不规范和信用制度的不规范等几个制度性缺陷。通过对县域金融信贷风险生成机理的研究,为县域金融信贷风险的防范、控制和化解提供科学依据。
第三,根据国内外风险管理原理和乡村银行经验,从事前风险防范的角度出发,从借款人的信用估测、贷款前对贷款风险度的计量、主要风险管理环节的监测与处置,分析县域金融信贷风险防范的一般性方法,重点探讨分析农民贷款信贷风险的防范;农村中小企业贷款信贷风险防范;农村公共产品信贷风险防范,设计县域金融信贷风险防范方案。
第四,县域金融信贷风险控制是县域金融信贷风险管理的重要环节。本文从事中风险控制的角度出发,引入定量贷后风险分析方式,建立贷后风险数据模型,通过量化数据准确地识别贷后风险。依据Zeta分析法、复审模型、分类和回归树、信贷风险模糊综合评价法对县域金融信贷风险进行实证分析。通过个体信用跟踪分析和整体信用预警分析,提出分散贷款、合理定价和贷款政策科学、适用等县域金融信贷风险控制的基本方法。从法人治理、人力资源、内控体系、金融文化方面,对我国县域金融机构信贷风险进行控制,构造金融生态的内优化机制。
第五,在汲取国内外先金融信贷风险管理经验的基础上,从事后风险化解的角度出发,重点探讨资本充足率和呆账贷款准备金制度建设,增强县域金融自身化解信贷风险的能力;系统地总结整理了国内银行业的多种方法,结合我国县域金融的实际,在资产清收保全、资产盘活激活、资产抵债补偿、资产打包出售等方面进行理论探讨和方法创新,从而突破传统的化解信贷风险方法,提高县域金融化解信贷风险效率。
第六,结合县域金融的实际,以县域金融主要风险点为依据,从财政补贴政策、农地抵押制度、农村中小企业信用担保体系、农业保险创新和农村金融体系再造等方面进行研究,重点解决农民贷款、农村中小企业贷款和农村公共产品贷款等相关信贷风险的配套措施和宏观战略。一是通过增加财政补贴、增强货币政策稳定、东西融资互动、金融生态建设等途径,消除县域金融风险;二是以国内外农地金融制度成功的经验为依据,分析我国农地金融制度改革过程中出现的问题,解决农民贷款抵押担保产生的信用风险问题;三是构造县域中小企业担保体系,解决农村中小企业贷款信用风险问题;四是进行县域农业保险制度创新,解决县域金融环境风险问题;五是通过农村金融体系的再造,构造多元化的县域金融格局,解决县域金融的结构性问题,为我国县域金融信贷风险全过程控制提供保障。
This paper had taken the fully open of China's financial industry and construction of new socialism countryside for the background. And it was based on the domestic and international financial credit risk management theory and practices. China county financial credit risk management system was systematically studied from the current situation of county financial credit risk management according to the combinations of questionnaire surveys and typical investigations, empirical analysis and normative analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. So the prevention, control, resolving and long-term mechanism for county financial credit risk management were identified and entire process for our county financial credit risk management system was constructed. The basic viewpoints are as follows:
Firstly, this paper systematically analyzed the movement characteristics of the county financial credit funds, content and features of credit risk, and discussed the main risk source of county financial credit and measurement of risk value. It was thought that the county financial credit capital movement was obviously different from that of general financial credit funds. County financial credit risk had three basic characteristics of universality of high-risk, static suffocation risk and dynamic tremor risk. Agriculture credit risk source was the core of county financial credit risk. County financial credit risk management should focused on three risk points of farmer’s loans, rural small and middle corporation loan, and rural public products loans.
Secondly, the major categories of our county financial credit risk were made, as follow: policy risks, environmental risks, credit risks, operational risk, market risk and legal risk, total six types, by taking advantages of the latest international credit risk classification. Comprehensive analysis and empirical research of the factors of our county financial credit risk formation mechanism were studies on this basis. It was thought that the poor financial ecosystem was the soil and potential hotbed for county financial credit risks germination, and county financial credit risk existed non-standardized administrative systems, non-standardized credit system, and non-standardized legal systems and non-standardized credit systems, and several other system-related defects. A scientific basis was provided for prevention, control and resolving for county financial credit risk through the research of formation mechanism of county financial credit risk.
Third, according to the principles of domestic and international risk management and experience of rural banks, and in the view of risks pre-prevention, and from the borrower's credit estimation, the risk measurement before the loan, the monitoring and disposal of main risk management, general ways for county financial credit risk prevention were analyzed. Discussions of analysis of the farmer loan credit risk prevention, rural small and middle corporation lending credit risk prevention, and rural public goods credit risk prevention were focused on. County financial credit risk prevention program were designed.
Fourth, the county financial credit risk control was essential in the county financial credit risk management. In the viewpoint of risk control point, and with the introduction of quantitative credit risk analysis and establishment of credit risk data model after the loan, high-risk loans were identified through accurate quantitative data. The county financial credit risk was empirically analyzed by Zeta analysis, review model, classification and regression trees, and credit risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Through individual credit tracking analysis and overall credit warning analysis, scattered loans, county financial credit risk control methods of reasonable pricing, and scientific and applicable lending policies, were brought forward. To control credit risk of our county financial institutions from the aspects of corporate governance, human resources, inner-control system, financial culture, the financial optimal ecological mechanisms can be constructed.
Fifth, with the basis of from taking the domestic and international advanced research experience, the construction of capital adequacy ratio and bad loan provisioning system and strengthening their capabilities of resolving county financial credit risk were emphasized discussed, and the various methods of domestic banking were systematically summed up, from the perspective of defusing risk. With the basis of the actuality of county finance, theory discussion and methodology innovation were conducted on clearing the asset protection, asset invigorated activation, repossessed assets compensation, packing sale of assets, etc. So the traditional methods to resolve credit risk were broke through and county financial efficiency of resolving credit risk was improved. Lastly, focusing discussion on the inherent characteristics of loan verification system, formation mechanism, and learning from the advanced experiences of other countries, and constructing China's county financial loan verification system.
Sixth, with the actuality of county finance and based on the county financial main risk points, studies focused on solving farmers loans, and rural small and middle corporation loans and rural public products loans and other related to credit risk measures and macro strategies were made from financial subsidy policy, farmland pledge system, rural small and middle corporation credit guarantee system, agricultural insurance innovation and the rural financial system recycling, etc. Firstly, county financial risks were eliminated through increasing financial subsidies and strengthening stability in monetary policy, financing interactive things, financial ecological construction, etc.; Second, solving the credit risk arising from peasants’collateral for a loan through the successful experience of domestic and international financial system, analysis of the problems China's agricultural land financial system reforms; Third, construction of county small and middle corporation guarantee system and solving rural credit risk of small and middle corporation loans; Forth, solving county financial environmental risks through innovation research on county agricultural insurance system; Fifth, solving county financial structural problems through recycling of the rural financial system and constructing diversified financial optimization pattern, and providing the guarantee for our county financial credit risk control of the whole process of security
引文
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