乌兰巴托市居民乳品消费研究
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摘要
乳品营养丰富,对改善居民膳食结构、提高身体素质,具有不可替代的作用。乳业的发展可以带动相关产业的发展,对促进国民经济的发展具有积极的作用。20世纪90年代以前乌兰巴托市居民的家庭乳品消费水平较高,1990年的市场化改革初期,由于乳品市场供应不足及居民收入水平下降等原因,蒙古国城镇居民乳品消费量出现了下降趋势,但是牧区居民乳品消费量仍维持较高水平,1995年后居民乳品消费水平又趋于缓慢增长。本文首先分析了乌兰巴托市居民乳品消费历程和消费现状,在此基础上,采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,将影响城镇居民乳品消费的因素作为变量,并进行多元回归分析,得到以下结论：第一,乌兰巴托市居民乳品类消费整体水平呈不断在增长的趋势,但平均消费量与世界平均水平仍有较大差距；随着乌兰巴托市居民乳品消费量的不断增长,乳品消费的城乡差别有缩小的趋势。第二,乌兰巴托市居民乳品消费量与人均收入呈显著的正相关。消费支出也相对较高,乳品是乌兰巴托市居民需求收入弹性最大的食品。第三,在现有消费情况下,价格是影响乌兰巴托市居民乳品消费量的主要因素。第四,人均GDP的持续增长以及膳食结构的改善会拉动乳品消费的增长。第五,市场条件、饮食习惯等也会影响乌兰巴托市居民乳品消费。另外,通过对消费者乳品消费行为的调查分析,得出如下结论：消费者越来越关注乳品的质量安全,消费者对政府采取的各项措施信任度有所提高；乌兰巴托市居民乳品消费人群的年龄、职业、性别分布更加趋向平衡；消费者对牛奶的营养价值已有了较多的认识,并已初步具备科学的饮奶知识,但仍需进一步加强。本文对乌兰巴托市与呼和浩特市的乳品价格、居民乳品消费量、消费习惯等方面进行了比较分析。对两个城市居民乳品消费的差距,以及可支配收入、价格等因素对其居民乳品消费的影响分别进行了研究。本文采用灰色预测模型和时间序列预测模型对2011-2020年乌兰巴托市居民乳品消费需求和总需求进行了预测。对今后进一步发展蒙古国乳业及提升乌兰巴托市居民乳品消费水平提出了对策建议。
Milk product is the food with high nutrition, so it is very important to improve the dietry pattern and physical quality. The development of the dairy industry drive the development of relevant industries and promote economic development, so it has a positive effect. Before the1990years, Ulanbator family milk consumption level is higher, after market reform of1990years, dairy market supply and residents income decline, as Mongolia dairy consumption of urban residents is decline slowing, but pastoral area's residents dairy consumption is maintain high. Ulanbator resident's dairy consumption level tends began to slow growth in1995, therefore, research how to improve dairy consumption of Ulanbator residents has become an important research topic. In this paper, the development history and summarizing the characteristics ofcurrent milk consumption of Ulanbator, the factors that effect the milk consumption were analysed based on quantitative methods and qualitative methods. The results were:First, although the per capita milk consumption of Ulanbator increased and growth rate was the fastest among the food, at had a large margin with average level of the world; the milk consumption of Ulanbator grown slowly, so the gap between urban and pastoral residents had shortened. Second, Per capita milk consumption of Ulanbator residents had a distinct positive correlation with per capita disposal income; the higher they expend on milk consumption; income elasticity of demand of milk consumption was highest among the husbandry foods. Third, at present, the price of milk had more significant influence on the milk consumption of Ulanbator residents. Fourth, The sustainable growth of the per capita GDP and the improvement of dietry pattern can invigorate the increase of the milk consumption. Fifth, Market conditions and eating habits could effect the milk consumption of Ulanbator residents. Milk consumption and the consumer behavior of Ulanbator residents on consumer surveys major results were:consumers paid more and more attention to the quality and safety of the milk, the event about milk quality and safety could lower the consumer's confidence, and had more confidence on government than dairy plants; the distribution of age, occupation and gender tended to be more balanced gradually; consumers thought that the milk inclusive traditional food; and they had mastered more scientific knowledge about how to drink milk, but they should master more knowledge. This article dairy consumption, dairy prices, the economy and other aspects of Ulan Bator and Hohhot milk consumption status for comparative analysis. The gap between the two cities residents had dairy consumption and disposable income, price and other factors research and analysis of the impact on residents' dairy consumption, but due to limited sources of data, not more depth analysis. In this paper, the forecasts of milk consumption demand of Ulanbator residents and aggregate demand from2011-2020were made by grey forecast model and regression model. To further development of dairy and Mongolia and Ulanbator residents milk consumption level puts forward countermeasures:increasing development of dairy production base, improve the productivity of dairy cows.
Milk product is the food with high nutrition, so it is very important to improve the dietry pattern and physical quality. The development of the dairy industry drive the development of relevant industries and promote economic development, so it has a positive effect. Before the1990years, Ulanbator family milk consumption level is higher, after market reform of1990years, dairy market supply and residents income decline, as Mongolia dairy consumption of urban residents is decline slowing, but pastoral area's residents dairy consumption is maintain high. Ulanbator resident's dairy consumption level tends began to slow growth in1995, therefore, research how to improve dairy consumption of Ulanbator residents has become an important research topic. In this paper, the development history and summarizing the characteristics ofcurrent milk consumption of Ulanbator, the factors that effect the milk consumption were analysed based on quantitative methods and qualitative methods. The results were:First, although the per capita milk consumption of Ulanbator increased and growth rate was the fastest among the food, at had a large margin with average level of the world; the milk consumption of Ulanbator grown slowly, so the gap between urban and pastoral residents had shortened. Second, Per capita milk consumption of Ulanbator residents had a distinct positive correlation with per capita disposal income; the higher they expend on milk consumption; income elasticity of demand of milk consumption was highest among the husbandry foods. Third, at present, the price of milk had more significant influence on the milk consumption of Ulanbator residents. Fourth, The sustainable growth of the per capita GDP and the improvement of dietry pattern can invigorate the increase of the milk consumption. Fifth, Market conditions and eating habits could effect the milk consumption of Ulanbator residents. Milk consumption and the consumer behavior of Ulanbator residents on consumer surveys major results were:consumers paid more and more attention to the quality and safety of the milk, the event about milk quality and safety could lower the consumer's confidence, and had more confidence on government than dairy plants; the distribution of age, occupation and gender tended to be more balanced gradually; consumers thought that the milk inclusive traditional food; and they had mastered more scientific knowledge about how to drink milk, but they should master more knowledge. This article dairy consumption, dairy prices, the economy and other aspects of Ulan Bator and Hohhot milk consumption status for comparative analysis. The gap between the two cities residents had dairy consumption and disposable income, price and other factors research and analysis of the impact on residents' dairy consumption, but due to limited sources of data, not more depth analysis. In this paper, the forecasts of milk consumption demand of Ulanbator residents and aggregate demand from2011-2020were made by grey forecast model and regression model. To further development of dairy and Mongolia and Ulanbator residents milk consumption level puts forward countermeasures:increasing development of dairy production base, improve the productivity of dairy cows.
引文
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2优浩.中国乳品消费研究[D].北京：中国工业大学,2003
3赵胜利.中国乳制品市场发展研究：[D].东北：东北林业大学,2006
4苏洁,丁仁博,赵文超,杨利娜,庄苏.南京地区乳品消费市场调查分析[J].中国乳业工业,2010(8)：56-59
5冯宏伟.呼和浩特市乳品消费研究[D].呼和浩特：内蒙古农业大学,2006
6杜姗姗.消费者对乳品质量安全的支付意愿研究[D].呼和浩特：内蒙古农业大学,2010
14 http://www. cpr. mn-Centre of Policy Research
16 Robert E. Jacobson and Joe L. Outlaw. Dairy Product consumption and demand[J]. Dairy markets and policy-Issues and options,1995(5)
17 Anil Chawla, Nidhi Chawla, Yogita Pant,Pankaj Kandhari. Milk and Dairy Products in India Production, Consumption and Exports. Milk and dairy products in India[M],2009
18 Fulgoni V. Dairy Consumption and Related Nutrient Intake in African and American Adults and children in the United States:Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals 1994-1996,1998, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2000[J]. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2000, VOL.77(2)20-38
19王威,谢静.上海乳品消费的调查分析[J].上海农村经济,2004(6)：30-32
20冯宏伟.呼和浩特市城乡居民品消费问题分析[J].内蒙古财政学院报,2006(4)：106-109
21李华,帕塔木,巴拉提.新疆乳品消费分析[J].乳业经济,2006(3)：19-21
22孟惠婷.内蒙古乳品消费研究[D].呼和浩特：内蒙古农业大学,2010
23刘子玉.吉林省农村居民消费问题研究[D].吉林省：吉林大学,2010
24刘艺卓.基于恒定市场份额模型对我国乳品进口的分析[J].国际贸易,2009(4)：36-46
25韩海燕.中国城镇居民收入结构,不稳定性与消费问题研究[D].西北：西北大学,2010
26沈文华,李兴稼,杨静.乳品消费现状与需求影响因素分析[J].乳业经济,2003(1)：15-18
27文/东方艾格农业咨询.2008上半年全国城镇居民人均乳品消费形势分析[J].中国乳业第一本产经杂志,中国乳业30年之报告篇：12-19
28刘向红.乳品包装要求[J].政策法规与包装标准,2000,Vol.4：47-49
29赵剑峰.中国乳品消费水平及影响因素的经济学分析[J].中国乳业,2003,(9)：4-6
30唐丽芳,贾冬青,孟庆鹏.用mat lab实现灰色预测GM(1,1)模型[J].沧州师范专科学校学报,2008,vol.25(5)：24-26
31张扬,河南省城乡居民消费函数的对比研究[J].安阳工学院学报,2011,vol.2(1)：30-31
32苏惟真,李翠霞.哈尔滨乳制品消费者意愿调查[J].经济观察,2011,vol.24(2)：35-37
33彭永成,庞中伟.北京市乳品消费市场结构分析及发展[J].食品研究与开发2004,vol.24(2)：35-37
34沈文华,李兴稼,杨静.北京城区居民乳品消费现转与需求影响因素分析[J].乳业经济,2009,vol.12(2)：16-18
35赵元凤.呼和浩特乳业发展研究[D].呼和浩特：内蒙古农业大学,2000
36张建升,冉建宇.成渝经济区与三大经济区区城差距比较[J].经济体制改革,2011,Vol.4：56-59
37赵元凤,杜珊珊.消费者对乳品质量安全信息需求及认知行为分析[J].内蒙古社会科学,2011,Vol.32(5)：113-116
38蒋先峰,蔡云勇.乳品消费影响因素研究[J].商场现代化,2010,Vol.60(1)：92-94
39吴文钰.中美城市郊区化发展比较研究[J].云南地理环境研究,2010,Vol.22(3)：75-80
40张丽.贵州省与湖北省农村现状比较研究[J].农村经济,2010,vol.22(3)：179
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42杨宏恩.中国农村居民消费收入弹性的实证分析[J].中国外贸易,2010,：62-63
43许龙,鄢浩.武汉城市圈与山东半岛城市群比较研究[J].山西建筑,2010,vol.36(24)：49-50
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