金融创新扩散与经济增长的关联性研究
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摘要
2008年金融危机爆发以后,国际社会对金融创新重新进行了反思,肯定了这场全球性的金融危机的发生与金融衍生产品有着密切的联系。技术创新理论强调一项创新的真正意义不在于创新本身,而在于创新成果在经济社会系统中广泛的传播和扩散。金融创新也不例外,金融是现代经济的核心,推动金融发展的动力在于金融创新,而金融创新的成果如果不能在金融市场上有效扩散,它就不会对经济社会产生任何形式的影响。为了避免2008年金融危机历史的再次上演,为金融创新能力还比较弱的广大发展中国家走金融创新扩散的可持续发展道路提供参考,在此背景下对金融创新扩散的研究不仅具有重要的理论意义,而且具有较强的现实意义。
本文首先介绍了研究的意义、方法和主要的研究问题,对金融创新扩散的相关文献进行了综述,紧接着对金融创新扩散的理论进行了阐述,其中包括金融创新扩散概念的界定、扩散的动因、金融创新扩散系统的分析及金融创新扩散与经济增长的相互关系的论证,然后以美国商业银行为研究样本,取美国商务部‘'STAT-USA"统计数据库从1947年到2009年的数据,在现有创新扩散模型的基础上,通过曲线拟合的方法对相关数据进行实证分析,比较各扩散模型的优劣,探索美国商业银行金融创新扩散的最佳拟合曲线及其增长拐点,结合美国商业银行金融创新的实践历程与经济发展的状况,全面分析了在创新扩散的孕育、成长、成熟和衰退期金融创新扩散与经济增长的相互关系,最后从金融创新扩散的角度分析了2008年金融危机。
研究结果表明,适度的金融创新并在市场有效地扩散能较好的促进经济的增长,一旦金融创新扩散与经济社会不协调时,便会抑制经济的增长,严重的导致危机的发生,并且在扩散的不同阶段,对经济增长的作用不一样。具体说来,在金融创新扩散的初始阶段,对经济增长的作用不明显；在扩散的成长期,扩散的速度递增,扩散的增长速度也递增,这一时期为创新扩散和经济增长的鼎盛时期；在扩散的成熟期,扩散的后劲和动力渐渐减弱,扩散各方面的条件都已成熟,对经济增长的促进作用达到顶峰。文章最后从金融创新扩散的角度对2008年金融危机进行了解析,给以中国为代表的广大发展中国家提供了金融创新扩散的启示,提出了金融创新扩散要与经济社会形成良性互动、强化金融监管和改革及建立金融创新扩散的预警机制三条政策建议。
After the financial crisis of 2008, the international society rethinked profoundly for financial innovation, and confirmed that the closely correlation between the global financial crisis and financial derivative products. Technology innovation theory emphasized that the value of an innovation is not innovation itself, but innovation diffusion. Financial innovation is no exception, finance is the core of modern economy, the power of promoting financial development comes from financial innovation, if the fruit of financial innovation didn't diffused among the society system, financial innovation have no effects on economic growth. To avoid history repeats itself like the financial crisis of 2008, to provide reference of the developing countries that have lower power of innovating in finance. In this circumstances, studied on financial innovation diffusion not only had important theoretical significance, but also had strongly practical significance.
Firstly, this paper introduces the significance and the principal question of the study. Secondly, the paper reviews the relevant literature and states the theory of financial innovation diffusion.including its concept, cause and correlation between financial innovation diffusion and economic growth. Thirdly, this paper uses the data of the commercial banks in the United States range from the year of 1947 to 2009, to make empirical research by nonlinear optimization, to compare all kinds of the diffusion model and search for the best fitting curve for financial innovation diffusion of the American commercial banks, and careful analysis the inflection point of fitting curve.Finally, this paper comprehensively analysis the correlation between the initial, development, maturity and recession period of financial innovation diffusion and economic growth based on the practical process of the financial innovation in American, during this course emphasisly analysis the financial crisis of 2008.
The results of research could be summarized as follows:the appropriate financial innovation and diffused among the society could promoted the economic growth. Otherwise, restrained economic growth, even bring about a crisis, and the different period of financial innovation diffusion has different effects on economic growth. Concretely speaking, in the initial period, it has not obviously effect, in the development period, the speed of diffusion becomes faster and faster, the accelerated speed of diffusion becomes faster and faster too, it is the most benefit for financial innovation diffusion and economic growth. In the maturity period, despite the trend of innovation diffusion will keep strongly, the driving force of it becomes more and more weakly, its effects will climbed to the peak, after then,the effects will be receded gradually. At the end of this paper, it analysis the financial crisis of 2008 from the angle of financial innovation diffusion, to avoid financial crisis I give advice on financial innovation diffusion as following three suggestions:the first one is financial innovation diffusion must interact with the economic society, the second one is strengthen financial supervision and reform, the third one is establish an early warning mechanism of financial innovation diffusion.
本文首先介绍了研究的意义、方法和主要的研究问题,对金融创新扩散的相关文献进行了综述,紧接着对金融创新扩散的理论进行了阐述,其中包括金融创新扩散概念的界定、扩散的动因、金融创新扩散系统的分析及金融创新扩散与经济增长的相互关系的论证,然后以美国商业银行为研究样本,取美国商务部‘'STAT-USA"统计数据库从1947年到2009年的数据,在现有创新扩散模型的基础上,通过曲线拟合的方法对相关数据进行实证分析,比较各扩散模型的优劣,探索美国商业银行金融创新扩散的最佳拟合曲线及其增长拐点,结合美国商业银行金融创新的实践历程与经济发展的状况,全面分析了在创新扩散的孕育、成长、成熟和衰退期金融创新扩散与经济增长的相互关系,最后从金融创新扩散的角度分析了2008年金融危机。
研究结果表明,适度的金融创新并在市场有效地扩散能较好的促进经济的增长,一旦金融创新扩散与经济社会不协调时,便会抑制经济的增长,严重的导致危机的发生,并且在扩散的不同阶段,对经济增长的作用不一样。具体说来,在金融创新扩散的初始阶段,对经济增长的作用不明显；在扩散的成长期,扩散的速度递增,扩散的增长速度也递增,这一时期为创新扩散和经济增长的鼎盛时期；在扩散的成熟期,扩散的后劲和动力渐渐减弱,扩散各方面的条件都已成熟,对经济增长的促进作用达到顶峰。文章最后从金融创新扩散的角度对2008年金融危机进行了解析,给以中国为代表的广大发展中国家提供了金融创新扩散的启示,提出了金融创新扩散要与经济社会形成良性互动、强化金融监管和改革及建立金融创新扩散的预警机制三条政策建议。
After the financial crisis of 2008, the international society rethinked profoundly for financial innovation, and confirmed that the closely correlation between the global financial crisis and financial derivative products. Technology innovation theory emphasized that the value of an innovation is not innovation itself, but innovation diffusion. Financial innovation is no exception, finance is the core of modern economy, the power of promoting financial development comes from financial innovation, if the fruit of financial innovation didn't diffused among the society system, financial innovation have no effects on economic growth. To avoid history repeats itself like the financial crisis of 2008, to provide reference of the developing countries that have lower power of innovating in finance. In this circumstances, studied on financial innovation diffusion not only had important theoretical significance, but also had strongly practical significance.
Firstly, this paper introduces the significance and the principal question of the study. Secondly, the paper reviews the relevant literature and states the theory of financial innovation diffusion.including its concept, cause and correlation between financial innovation diffusion and economic growth. Thirdly, this paper uses the data of the commercial banks in the United States range from the year of 1947 to 2009, to make empirical research by nonlinear optimization, to compare all kinds of the diffusion model and search for the best fitting curve for financial innovation diffusion of the American commercial banks, and careful analysis the inflection point of fitting curve.Finally, this paper comprehensively analysis the correlation between the initial, development, maturity and recession period of financial innovation diffusion and economic growth based on the practical process of the financial innovation in American, during this course emphasisly analysis the financial crisis of 2008.
The results of research could be summarized as follows:the appropriate financial innovation and diffused among the society could promoted the economic growth. Otherwise, restrained economic growth, even bring about a crisis, and the different period of financial innovation diffusion has different effects on economic growth. Concretely speaking, in the initial period, it has not obviously effect, in the development period, the speed of diffusion becomes faster and faster, the accelerated speed of diffusion becomes faster and faster too, it is the most benefit for financial innovation diffusion and economic growth. In the maturity period, despite the trend of innovation diffusion will keep strongly, the driving force of it becomes more and more weakly, its effects will climbed to the peak, after then,the effects will be receded gradually. At the end of this paper, it analysis the financial crisis of 2008 from the angle of financial innovation diffusion, to avoid financial crisis I give advice on financial innovation diffusion as following three suggestions:the first one is financial innovation diffusion must interact with the economic society, the second one is strengthen financial supervision and reform, the third one is establish an early warning mechanism of financial innovation diffusion.
引文
[1]Akhavein, J. Frame, W.S.& White, L.J. The Diffusion of Financial Innovations:An Examination of the Adoption of Small Business Credits Scoring by Large Banking Organizations.Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Working Paper,2001(9).
[2]Chemmanur. T.J.& Wilhelm, WJ. New Technologies, Financial Innovation, and Intermediation. Journal of Financial Intermediation,2002,11:2-8.
[3]Finnerty,J.D.An overview of corporation securities innovation Journal of Applied Corporate Finance,1993,(4):23-39.
[4]Greenbaum,S.&Haywood, C.Secular change in the financial services industry Journal of money,Credit and Banking,1973,(5):571-603.
[5]George Kendall Ferguson. An Extended Bass Model of Technology Innovation Diffusion, applied to the United states Internet[D].Stanford University Ph.D thesis,2002
[6]Hannon,T.H.&.Mc.Dowell, J.M. Market concentration and diffusion of new technology in the bank industry.Review of Economics and Statistics,1984,11.
[7]Hanool choi & Sanghoom. Role of network structure and network effect in diffusion of innovations, Industrial marketing management.2008
[8]Jagtiani, J.Saunders, A.&Udell, G. The Effect of Bank Capital Requirements on Bank Off-Balance Sheet Financial Innovations. Journal of Bank and Finance,1995
[9]Jaranee.Wonglimpigarat & Napaporn Yuberk. In support of innovation management and roger's innovation diffusion theory. Government information,2006
[10]Kane,E.J. Accelerating inflation,technological innovation and the decreasing effectiveness of Banking regulation. Journal of Finance,1981,(36):355-367.
[11]M. N. Sharif & K. Pamanathan, Binomial innovation diffusion models with dynamic potential adopter population, Technological forecasting and social change,1981,20:63-87
[12]M. N. Sharif & K. Pamanathan, Polynomial innovation diffusion models, Technological forecasting and social change,1982,21:301-323
[13]Molyneux,P.& Shamroukh, N. Diffusion of Financial Innovations:The case of Junk. Bands and Note Issuance Facilities, Journal of Money. Credit and banking,1996, 28(3):502-522.
[14]Michael K. Fung & Arnold C.S.cheng. Diffusion of off-balance-sheet-financial innovation information complementetity and market competition, Pacific-Basin finance journal,2004
[15]Miller, M.H. Financial innovation:the last twenty years and the next[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,1986
[16]Niehans J.Financial innovation, multinational banking and montery policy. Journal of bank and Finance.1983,(7):537-551.
[17]Pesendorfer, W. Financial Innovation in a General Equilibrium Model. Journal of Economics Theory,1995,65(1):79-116.
[18]Per Lekvall & Clas Wahlbin, A study of some assumptions underlying innovation diffusions functions, Journal of Economics,1973
[19]Ross, S.A.Institutional Markets, Financial Marketing, and Financial Innovation. Journal of Finance,1989,44(3):541-556.
[20]Sugato Chakravarty & Alan Dubinsky. Individual investors' reactions to decimalization: Innovation diffusion in financial markets, Journal of Economic Psychology,2005
[21]Smith, A.D.Performance in International Financial Markets[M].NIESR, Cambridge University press,1992.
[22]V. B. LAL,Kapmeshu & S.Kaicker, Modeling innovation diffusion with distributed time lag. Technological forecasting and social change,1988,34:103-113
[23]爱德华·肖著.经济发展金融深化[M].上海：上海三联书店,1988.
[24]崔启武等.生物种群增长的营养动力学[M].科学出版社,1991：73-76
[252]李苏燕.网络金融创新产品扩散的实证研究[D].复旦大学博士论文,2005
[26]李薇.金融创新扩散与采纳行为分析[D].南京理工大学硕士论文,2005
[27]梁大鹏等.金融创新产品的扩散研究[M].数量经济技术经济研究,2004
[28]美国总统经济报告[J].美国政府印刷所,2009
[29]孟猛.金融深化和经济增长的因果关系[J].南开经济研究.2003,(1)：72—74.
[30]史永东,武志,颤红线.我国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].预测,2003
[31]孙竹.基于系统动力学理论的经济增长与金融创新的关联性研究[D].武汉理工大学硕士论文,2007
[32]商建初.金融深化与经济增长[J].生产力研究,2006(9)：57-61
[33]徐玖平.技术创新扩散速度模型[J].管理学报,2004
[34]徐昕.西方商业银行金融创新历程评析[J].金融与经济,2000
[35]王仁样,喻平.金融创新与金融深化[J].金融理论与实践,2000,10
[36]王仁祥,姚耀军.金融创新的动因新探[J].上海经济研究,1999年第11期,49—53
[37]吴思铭.金融创新的扩散效应对资本市场的影响[D].华东师范大学硕士论文,2004
[38]吴定远等.显性金融创新与隐性金融创新的扩散研究[J].海南金融,2004
[39]武春友,戴大双.技术创新扩散[M].北京：化学工业出版社,1997.
[40]魏成龙.中国金融创新路径[M].中国经济出版社,2005
[41]王汉荣.技术创新扩散模型及其参数估计[J].苏州大学学报,2000
[42]王仁祥、宋阳和王若波.金融创新扩散机理研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2001
[43]王峰.金融创新的扩散机理研究[D].东北财经大学硕士学位论文,2005
[44]喻平.金融创新扩散机理及我国金融创新扩散路径分析[J].理论探索,2001
[45]喻平.金融创新与经济增长[M].中国金融出版社,2005
[46]姚德良.1933年-1999年峰回路转66年[J].数字财富,2004
[47]周立.金融发展促进经济增长的理论综述[J].经济学动态,2003(9)：68-73.
[48]张妍蕊,温新建.论技术创新扩散与经济增长[J].大连理工大学学报,2001
[49]张立洲.金融创新、金融结构与经营体制变迁研究.北京：中国金融出版社,2003.
[50]诸葛秀山.金融创新与经济增长的关心研究[D].江苏大学,2007
[51]庄新田等.基于消费者网络的金融的金融创新扩散研究[J].管理科学学报,2009
[2]Chemmanur. T.J.& Wilhelm, WJ. New Technologies, Financial Innovation, and Intermediation. Journal of Financial Intermediation,2002,11:2-8.
[3]Finnerty,J.D.An overview of corporation securities innovation Journal of Applied Corporate Finance,1993,(4):23-39.
[4]Greenbaum,S.&Haywood, C.Secular change in the financial services industry Journal of money,Credit and Banking,1973,(5):571-603.
[5]George Kendall Ferguson. An Extended Bass Model of Technology Innovation Diffusion, applied to the United states Internet[D].Stanford University Ph.D thesis,2002
[6]Hannon,T.H.&.Mc.Dowell, J.M. Market concentration and diffusion of new technology in the bank industry.Review of Economics and Statistics,1984,11.
[7]Hanool choi & Sanghoom. Role of network structure and network effect in diffusion of innovations, Industrial marketing management.2008
[8]Jagtiani, J.Saunders, A.&Udell, G. The Effect of Bank Capital Requirements on Bank Off-Balance Sheet Financial Innovations. Journal of Bank and Finance,1995
[9]Jaranee.Wonglimpigarat & Napaporn Yuberk. In support of innovation management and roger's innovation diffusion theory. Government information,2006
[10]Kane,E.J. Accelerating inflation,technological innovation and the decreasing effectiveness of Banking regulation. Journal of Finance,1981,(36):355-367.
[11]M. N. Sharif & K. Pamanathan, Binomial innovation diffusion models with dynamic potential adopter population, Technological forecasting and social change,1981,20:63-87
[12]M. N. Sharif & K. Pamanathan, Polynomial innovation diffusion models, Technological forecasting and social change,1982,21:301-323
[13]Molyneux,P.& Shamroukh, N. Diffusion of Financial Innovations:The case of Junk. Bands and Note Issuance Facilities, Journal of Money. Credit and banking,1996, 28(3):502-522.
[14]Michael K. Fung & Arnold C.S.cheng. Diffusion of off-balance-sheet-financial innovation information complementetity and market competition, Pacific-Basin finance journal,2004
[15]Miller, M.H. Financial innovation:the last twenty years and the next[J]. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,1986
[16]Niehans J.Financial innovation, multinational banking and montery policy. Journal of bank and Finance.1983,(7):537-551.
[17]Pesendorfer, W. Financial Innovation in a General Equilibrium Model. Journal of Economics Theory,1995,65(1):79-116.
[18]Per Lekvall & Clas Wahlbin, A study of some assumptions underlying innovation diffusions functions, Journal of Economics,1973
[19]Ross, S.A.Institutional Markets, Financial Marketing, and Financial Innovation. Journal of Finance,1989,44(3):541-556.
[20]Sugato Chakravarty & Alan Dubinsky. Individual investors' reactions to decimalization: Innovation diffusion in financial markets, Journal of Economic Psychology,2005
[21]Smith, A.D.Performance in International Financial Markets[M].NIESR, Cambridge University press,1992.
[22]V. B. LAL,Kapmeshu & S.Kaicker, Modeling innovation diffusion with distributed time lag. Technological forecasting and social change,1988,34:103-113
[23]爱德华·肖著.经济发展金融深化[M].上海：上海三联书店,1988.
[24]崔启武等.生物种群增长的营养动力学[M].科学出版社,1991：73-76
[252]李苏燕.网络金融创新产品扩散的实证研究[D].复旦大学博士论文,2005
[26]李薇.金融创新扩散与采纳行为分析[D].南京理工大学硕士论文,2005
[27]梁大鹏等.金融创新产品的扩散研究[M].数量经济技术经济研究,2004
[28]美国总统经济报告[J].美国政府印刷所,2009
[29]孟猛.金融深化和经济增长的因果关系[J].南开经济研究.2003,(1)：72—74.
[30]史永东,武志,颤红线.我国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].预测,2003
[31]孙竹.基于系统动力学理论的经济增长与金融创新的关联性研究[D].武汉理工大学硕士论文,2007
[32]商建初.金融深化与经济增长[J].生产力研究,2006(9)：57-61
[33]徐玖平.技术创新扩散速度模型[J].管理学报,2004
[34]徐昕.西方商业银行金融创新历程评析[J].金融与经济,2000
[35]王仁样,喻平.金融创新与金融深化[J].金融理论与实践,2000,10
[36]王仁祥,姚耀军.金融创新的动因新探[J].上海经济研究,1999年第11期,49—53
[37]吴思铭.金融创新的扩散效应对资本市场的影响[D].华东师范大学硕士论文,2004
[38]吴定远等.显性金融创新与隐性金融创新的扩散研究[J].海南金融,2004
[39]武春友,戴大双.技术创新扩散[M].北京：化学工业出版社,1997.
[40]魏成龙.中国金融创新路径[M].中国经济出版社,2005
[41]王汉荣.技术创新扩散模型及其参数估计[J].苏州大学学报,2000
[42]王仁祥、宋阳和王若波.金融创新扩散机理研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2001
[43]王峰.金融创新的扩散机理研究[D].东北财经大学硕士学位论文,2005
[44]喻平.金融创新扩散机理及我国金融创新扩散路径分析[J].理论探索,2001
[45]喻平.金融创新与经济增长[M].中国金融出版社,2005
[46]姚德良.1933年-1999年峰回路转66年[J].数字财富,2004
[47]周立.金融发展促进经济增长的理论综述[J].经济学动态,2003(9)：68-73.
[48]张妍蕊,温新建.论技术创新扩散与经济增长[J].大连理工大学学报,2001
[49]张立洲.金融创新、金融结构与经营体制变迁研究.北京：中国金融出版社,2003.
[50]诸葛秀山.金融创新与经济增长的关心研究[D].江苏大学,2007
[51]庄新田等.基于消费者网络的金融的金融创新扩散研究[J].管理科学学报,2009