新疆大风时空变化特征及环流背景研究
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摘要
大风是新疆气象灾害中具有严重影响和破坏力的灾害之一,常常给工业、农业生产、交通运输带来极为严重的损失,同时风能又是一种可再生的绿色清洁能源,新疆是风能资源十分丰富的地区之一,在全球气候变暖的大背景下,研究新疆大风的基本气候特征、演变规律及其与大气环流的关系具有重要的现实意义,为趋利避害,合理开发和利用气候资源提供科学的依据。
本文利用新疆107个国家地面气象观测站1961-2009年逐年、季、月、日大风资料,通过统计、插值、分析,研究了近49年新疆不同地区大风的时空变化特征；运用线性拟合计算年、季大风日数线性倾向率,运用F检验进行显著性检验；选取阿拉山口、老风口、吉木乃、达坂城、托克逊、十三间房、淖毛湖、红柳河为新疆各主要风区代表站,对代表站大风风向频率、持续时间、月际分布进行分析,并运用Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波变换确定突变年和振荡周期。同时利用美国NCEP全球再分析资料,对大风典型偏多、偏少年的大气环流形势进行分析,讨论了新疆大风日数显著减少的可能原因。通过研究得出以下结论：
①新疆大风日数空间分布总体表现为北疆和东疆大风日数明显多于南疆,高山区多于中、低山区,盆地边缘多于盆地腹地,大风高值区多位于峡谷、河谷、山隙地区,高值区域呈孤岛状分布,对近十年百里风区十三间房站的资料统计分析,得到了百里风区一线为新疆大风的高值中心,其中十三间房站1999-2009年年均大风日数高达206d,是目前新疆观测到的大风日数最多的台站这一新事实,这与以往研究提出的阿拉山口站是新疆仍至西北地区大风日数高值中心的结论不同。新疆有4个年均大风日数140d以上大风频发区,分布在百里风区十三间房(206d)、北疆西北部阿拉山口(155d)、天山中部山谷达坂城(148d),准噶尔盆地西缘塔城老风口(144d),较少区主要分布在北疆准噶尔盆地的南部、天山山区、南疆塔里木盆地的西南部,大风日数不足10天；
②四季中以春、夏季大风日数为最多,秋季为最少,月际分布以4、5、6、7月大风日数最为频繁,5、6月最多,1月最少;
③近49a以来新疆年均大风日数以-4.30d/a速率显著减少,北疆、南疆、东疆地区分别以-5.50d/10a、-2.71d/10a、-5.16d/10a的速率显著减少,且均达到了0.0001的极显著性水平；
④以1980年代中期为界,之前大风日数以正距平为主,其后以负距平为主,大风日数年代际变化表现为1960年代为最多,1970年代次之,1980年代居第三,2000年以后为最少；
⑤大风日变化特征十分明显,多表现为单峰型,多发时段出现在18-22时,尤以20时前后为最多,大部分大风天气持续时间不超过1小时,>23小时的大风极少；大风风向以偏西、西北大风为最多,但老风口地区以偏东大风为最多；
⑥20世纪80年代中期是新疆大风日数的突变期,大风日数发生了由多到少的突变；北疆地区没有显著的突变点；南疆地区在1972年、东疆地区在1971年前后发生了由多到少的突变；
⑦运用Morlet小波分析得出大风日数存在17～18a,8～9a,6a的振荡周期；
⑧运用NCEP全球再分析资料及74项环流指数对新疆典型大风偏多、偏少年环流特征进行分析,大风日数与北半球极涡强度、面积指数呈显著的正相关,蒙古地区海平面气压与区域性偏东大风日数呈显著正相关；
⑨对近49年强大风天气过程进行统计分析,得出其月季、年代际变化特征,同时对四种不同天气形势的大风归类,并挑选典型个例进行天气学分析。
⑩运用NCEP全球再分析资料对近半个世纪环流年代际演变进行分析,从20世纪60年代以来新疆地区500hPa高度场距平值由-20～-30gpm逐渐增大,至21世纪500hPa高度场距平值已演变为正距平,得出影响新疆的冷空气强度和频率均呈减小(减少)的趋势是影响新疆大风日数变化的主要原因。
Windy weather was a serious impact and destructive disaster in Xinjiang, the industry, agriculture, transportation often suffered serious damage, meanwhile wind energy is a renewable green energy. We researched the distribution characteristics and variation mechanism of windy weather, which could be helpful to tap and utilize climatic resource and improve the ecological environments.
Based on the surface Meteorological observation data from 107 stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2009, by using climatologically statistics methods called virtue of linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall method, Morlet wave analysis,correlation analysis and synthesis analysis, the temporal and spatial distribution of strong wind and its changes characteristics were analyzed. Furthermore variation mechanism of the gale days was discussed. Some significant results and new facts are obtained:①The annual mean number of gale days is selected as the major index to divide into four sub-regions, which are fewer gale region (where annual gale weather are less than 10 days), more gale region (where annual gale weather are between 10 days and 50 days), much more gale region (where annual gale weather are between 50 days and 100 days) and frequent region (where annual gale weather are more 100 days). In Xinjiang the frequent region of windy weather located in Shisanjianfang station (206d) of Eastern Xinjiang Region, the Alashankou station (155d) of northwestern region of Xinjiang, Dabancheng station (148d) of the valley of mid-Tianshan Mountain, Laofengkou station (144d) of western edge of Junggar Basin. The most frequent windy weather is Shisanjianfang station,which is a new fact that has not been revealed in the previous studies. The frequent region mainly lies in the gorge, river valley and mountain gap. Fewer gale region mainly located in southern edge of Junggar Basin, Tianshan Mountains, Southwest Tarim Basin.②Seasonally, the frequent period of gale days is in spring and summer, least in autumn. As for monthly distribution, the frequent gale mainly occurs from April to July, the most in May and June, least in January.③The annual mean gale days obviously decreased at the rate of -4.30 d/10a in Xinjiang recent 49a, Norther Xinjiang Region at the rate of -5.50 d/10a, Southern Xinjiang Region at rate of -2.71d/10a, Eastern Xinjiang Region at rate of -5.16 d/10a.④Considering decadal variation, the gale days were the most in 1960s, more in 1970s, less in 1990s and the least during 2001-2009.⑤daily variation of wind weather shown markedly single peak, it occur mainly during 18-22h,the most frequency in 20h,the duration of mostly windy weather is less than 1 hour; There occurred mainly west wind and northwest wind in Xinjiang, but Laofengkou station occurred mostly east wind.⑥There take place sudden change in mid-1980s, the gale days vary from more windy weather to less windy weather.⑦Morlet wave analysis showed that there have obvious oscillation period of 17-18 a, meanwhile there still exist period of 8-9a,6a.⑧Using NCEP global reanalysis data and the 74 circulation indexes, It is obviously positive correlation between the polar vortex strength(area) index of the northern hemisphere and the gale days of Xinjiang, the surface Mongolia high pressure and east wind of Laofengkou area were significantly positive correlativity.⑨311 strong wind weather process were summarized and classified four different types, furthermore the decadal change feature and monthly (seasonal) variation were analyzed.⑩Using NCEP global reanalysis data,the decade variation of circulation feature were analyzed recent 50a, the circulation feature of typical gale year(more or less) were analyzed, the tendency of polar vortex strength of the northern hemisphere and its area was reducing (weak or small), the intensity and frequency of the cold air activity were weakening in Xinjiang province too. It is primarily factor to the gale days have decreased. A further analysis indicated that windy weather depended on the special geographic environment and atmospheric circulation pattern.
本文利用新疆107个国家地面气象观测站1961-2009年逐年、季、月、日大风资料,通过统计、插值、分析,研究了近49年新疆不同地区大风的时空变化特征；运用线性拟合计算年、季大风日数线性倾向率,运用F检验进行显著性检验；选取阿拉山口、老风口、吉木乃、达坂城、托克逊、十三间房、淖毛湖、红柳河为新疆各主要风区代表站,对代表站大风风向频率、持续时间、月际分布进行分析,并运用Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波变换确定突变年和振荡周期。同时利用美国NCEP全球再分析资料,对大风典型偏多、偏少年的大气环流形势进行分析,讨论了新疆大风日数显著减少的可能原因。通过研究得出以下结论：
①新疆大风日数空间分布总体表现为北疆和东疆大风日数明显多于南疆,高山区多于中、低山区,盆地边缘多于盆地腹地,大风高值区多位于峡谷、河谷、山隙地区,高值区域呈孤岛状分布,对近十年百里风区十三间房站的资料统计分析,得到了百里风区一线为新疆大风的高值中心,其中十三间房站1999-2009年年均大风日数高达206d,是目前新疆观测到的大风日数最多的台站这一新事实,这与以往研究提出的阿拉山口站是新疆仍至西北地区大风日数高值中心的结论不同。新疆有4个年均大风日数140d以上大风频发区,分布在百里风区十三间房(206d)、北疆西北部阿拉山口(155d)、天山中部山谷达坂城(148d),准噶尔盆地西缘塔城老风口(144d),较少区主要分布在北疆准噶尔盆地的南部、天山山区、南疆塔里木盆地的西南部,大风日数不足10天；
②四季中以春、夏季大风日数为最多,秋季为最少,月际分布以4、5、6、7月大风日数最为频繁,5、6月最多,1月最少;
③近49a以来新疆年均大风日数以-4.30d/a速率显著减少,北疆、南疆、东疆地区分别以-5.50d/10a、-2.71d/10a、-5.16d/10a的速率显著减少,且均达到了0.0001的极显著性水平；
④以1980年代中期为界,之前大风日数以正距平为主,其后以负距平为主,大风日数年代际变化表现为1960年代为最多,1970年代次之,1980年代居第三,2000年以后为最少；
⑤大风日变化特征十分明显,多表现为单峰型,多发时段出现在18-22时,尤以20时前后为最多,大部分大风天气持续时间不超过1小时,>23小时的大风极少；大风风向以偏西、西北大风为最多,但老风口地区以偏东大风为最多；
⑥20世纪80年代中期是新疆大风日数的突变期,大风日数发生了由多到少的突变；北疆地区没有显著的突变点；南疆地区在1972年、东疆地区在1971年前后发生了由多到少的突变；
⑦运用Morlet小波分析得出大风日数存在17～18a,8～9a,6a的振荡周期；
⑧运用NCEP全球再分析资料及74项环流指数对新疆典型大风偏多、偏少年环流特征进行分析,大风日数与北半球极涡强度、面积指数呈显著的正相关,蒙古地区海平面气压与区域性偏东大风日数呈显著正相关；
⑨对近49年强大风天气过程进行统计分析,得出其月季、年代际变化特征,同时对四种不同天气形势的大风归类,并挑选典型个例进行天气学分析。
⑩运用NCEP全球再分析资料对近半个世纪环流年代际演变进行分析,从20世纪60年代以来新疆地区500hPa高度场距平值由-20～-30gpm逐渐增大,至21世纪500hPa高度场距平值已演变为正距平,得出影响新疆的冷空气强度和频率均呈减小(减少)的趋势是影响新疆大风日数变化的主要原因。
Windy weather was a serious impact and destructive disaster in Xinjiang, the industry, agriculture, transportation often suffered serious damage, meanwhile wind energy is a renewable green energy. We researched the distribution characteristics and variation mechanism of windy weather, which could be helpful to tap and utilize climatic resource and improve the ecological environments.
Based on the surface Meteorological observation data from 107 stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2009, by using climatologically statistics methods called virtue of linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall method, Morlet wave analysis,correlation analysis and synthesis analysis, the temporal and spatial distribution of strong wind and its changes characteristics were analyzed. Furthermore variation mechanism of the gale days was discussed. Some significant results and new facts are obtained:①The annual mean number of gale days is selected as the major index to divide into four sub-regions, which are fewer gale region (where annual gale weather are less than 10 days), more gale region (where annual gale weather are between 10 days and 50 days), much more gale region (where annual gale weather are between 50 days and 100 days) and frequent region (where annual gale weather are more 100 days). In Xinjiang the frequent region of windy weather located in Shisanjianfang station (206d) of Eastern Xinjiang Region, the Alashankou station (155d) of northwestern region of Xinjiang, Dabancheng station (148d) of the valley of mid-Tianshan Mountain, Laofengkou station (144d) of western edge of Junggar Basin. The most frequent windy weather is Shisanjianfang station,which is a new fact that has not been revealed in the previous studies. The frequent region mainly lies in the gorge, river valley and mountain gap. Fewer gale region mainly located in southern edge of Junggar Basin, Tianshan Mountains, Southwest Tarim Basin.②Seasonally, the frequent period of gale days is in spring and summer, least in autumn. As for monthly distribution, the frequent gale mainly occurs from April to July, the most in May and June, least in January.③The annual mean gale days obviously decreased at the rate of -4.30 d/10a in Xinjiang recent 49a, Norther Xinjiang Region at the rate of -5.50 d/10a, Southern Xinjiang Region at rate of -2.71d/10a, Eastern Xinjiang Region at rate of -5.16 d/10a.④Considering decadal variation, the gale days were the most in 1960s, more in 1970s, less in 1990s and the least during 2001-2009.⑤daily variation of wind weather shown markedly single peak, it occur mainly during 18-22h,the most frequency in 20h,the duration of mostly windy weather is less than 1 hour; There occurred mainly west wind and northwest wind in Xinjiang, but Laofengkou station occurred mostly east wind.⑥There take place sudden change in mid-1980s, the gale days vary from more windy weather to less windy weather.⑦Morlet wave analysis showed that there have obvious oscillation period of 17-18 a, meanwhile there still exist period of 8-9a,6a.⑧Using NCEP global reanalysis data and the 74 circulation indexes, It is obviously positive correlation between the polar vortex strength(area) index of the northern hemisphere and the gale days of Xinjiang, the surface Mongolia high pressure and east wind of Laofengkou area were significantly positive correlativity.⑨311 strong wind weather process were summarized and classified four different types, furthermore the decadal change feature and monthly (seasonal) variation were analyzed.⑩Using NCEP global reanalysis data,the decade variation of circulation feature were analyzed recent 50a, the circulation feature of typical gale year(more or less) were analyzed, the tendency of polar vortex strength of the northern hemisphere and its area was reducing (weak or small), the intensity and frequency of the cold air activity were weakening in Xinjiang province too. It is primarily factor to the gale days have decreased. A further analysis indicated that windy weather depended on the special geographic environment and atmospheric circulation pattern.
引文
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