上海国际服务贸易动态比较优势研究
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摘要
上海作为我国最重要的经济金融城市、服务业发展的传统基地和地处对外经贸交流前沿的国际大都市,正面临转变城市发展模式,提升产业竞争力,加快形成服务经济为主的产业结构,建设国际经济、金融、贸易、航运中心的历史任务。全面发展上海现代服务业与国际服务贸易是今后上海经济发展的战略重点之一,国际服务贸易发展水平不仅成为制约实现城市发展“四个中心”战略目标的重要因素,也对加快全国对外服务贸易发展有举足轻重的影响。国际服务贸易比较优势是一国或地区国际竞争力的重要组成部分和基本表证,其动态变化也预示着一国或地区未来服务贸易发展的前景。面对国际服务贸易发展的挑战与机遇,运用国际服务贸易比较优势理论,结合上海市情实际,研究上海发展国际服务贸易的动态比较优势,加快培育和充分利用比较优势,推动上海国际服务贸易持续快速健康发展,具有重要的战略意义和现实应用价值。
本文既是从上海所处的国际经济环境、国内及区域环境和自身内部条件出发,运用国际贸易与服务贸易的比较优势理论,分析找出上海发展国际服务贸易的动态比较优势与劣势;结合上海本地实际,借助国际服务贸易比较优势理论的改进模型,实证研究影响上海国际服务贸易比较优势消长的有利与不利因素以及各种因素的作用机制;依据上述研究结论,有针对性地提出完善上海国际服务贸易扬长避短的发展战略、发展机制和政策措施的建议。
根据以上研究目标,本文的结构与逻辑安排为:
第1章阐述研究背景、研究问题的提出及研究意义、关于国际服务贸易比较优势理论研究文献综述、本文的研究目标、逻辑结构和研究方法。
第2章在定义服务贸易概念、范围与特征基础上,介绍国际服务贸易发展的趋势与格局结构,为全文研究界定边界和铺垫全局背景。
第3章在结合上海实际,运用和改进既有理论模型、指标和分析方法基础上,基于与同期香港、新加坡服务贸易总体对照比较,对上海国际服务贸易动态比较优势展开RCAS指标实证分析,度量认清上海服务贸易比较优势变化态势及现状。
第4章针对上海国际服务贸易动态比较优势,运用国际服务贸易比较优势影响因素的理论框架和计量模型,深入研究影响和改变上海服务贸易比较优势的主要因素,其中重点实证研究技术和资本、劳动力及人力资本等要素资源影响上海比较优势的动态过程,度量要素的影响程度和内在作用机理,并对各种要素影响上海服务贸易比较优势的原因进行分析。
第5章依据前面各章节理论和实证研究结论,针对上海实际情况,对上海服务贸易未来发展战略、制度安排、管理机制和政策措施提出具有可操作性的建议。
通过上述理论研究与实证分析可以发现,综合部门显性与相对比较优势,上海十大服务贸易部门中,超过半数的部门对香港与新加坡存在绝对优势,即便是绝对劣势部门,有些还存在相对比较优势,说明上海加快发展国际服务贸易具有深厚的基础与潜力。但同时,上海绝大部分具有绝对优势的服务贸易部门的优势在逐渐缩减,绝对劣势部门中金融、通讯等影响力大、技术与资本含量高的现代服务业不具备相对比较优势等问题必须引起高度重视。此外还发现,人力资本对于改善上海服务贸易比较优势的作用最为突出,其作用不仅体现在对于先进服务生产部门技术外溢的模仿效应上,并且,作为一种服务生产的要素,人力资本投入总体对上海服务贸易部门比较优势的变化存在明显的促进作用,但影响程度在不同的服务部门有较大落差。
Being China's most important economic and financial city, Shanghai now is facing the changes in the mode of development, and speed up the formation of the international economic, financial, trade and shipping centre. The comprehensive development of the modern service industry and international trade in services is the focus of Shanghai's future economic development. International trade in services is a comparative advantage of countries or regions compete in the international market, and the dynamic changes also foretells a country or region's future prospects for the development of trade in services. Faced with the development of international trade in services challenges and opportunities, the study of the dynamic comparative advantages of international trade in services of Shanghai is of important strategic significance and practical application value.
With the conditions of the international economic environment, the domestic and regional environment, and the application of international trade and trade in services comparative advantage theory, this article is to identify the development of Shanghai international trade in services in dynamic comparative advantages and disadvantages, empirical research Shanghai’s impact of international trade in services growth and decline of comparative advantage, as well as the role of various factors mechanism, and propose the Shanghai International Services Trade development strategy, the development of mechanisms and policies measures.
According to the above objectives, the structure and logic of this arrangement is:
Chapter 1, described the background, the issue and the significance of the study, and gave some literatures of the international trade in services comparative advantage theory, also described this study objective, logical structure and research methods.
Chapter 2 introduced the development trend of pattern structure of international trade in services in the definition of trade in services concept, scope and characteristics
Chapter 3 measured RCAS indicators empirical analysis of Shanghai international trade in services dynamic comparative advantages with the application of existing theoretical models, indicators and analysis method.
Chapter 4 in-depth study on the main factors impact of trade in services and changing comparative advantage in Shanghai, which focuses on empirical research the dynamic process of techniques and capital, labor and human capital, and other factors affecting the Shanghai comparative advantages, with the use of the theoretical framework and measurement model of comparative advantages of international trade in services.
Chapter 5 put forward a workable proposal of Shanghai's future development strategy of trade in services, institutional arrangements, management mechanisms, and policies and measures, which based on theoretical and empirical research findings.
Through this theoretical research and empirical analysis can find that more than half of Shanghai 10 service trade sector have absolute advantage to Hong Kong and Singapore. Even if it is absolutely inferior sector, there are still some relatively advantages. All of which shows the profound foundation and potential of the development of Shanghai international trade in services. But the absolute advantage of most of the trade in services sector in Shanghai gradually reduced. It was also found that human capital plays the most prominent role to improve the comparative advantage of trade in services of Shanghai. And it is not only reflected in the production sector for advanced services technology spillover effect, and also, as a factor of production services, the overall human capital investment in Shanghai service trade sector promotes the changes in comparative advantage.
本文既是从上海所处的国际经济环境、国内及区域环境和自身内部条件出发,运用国际贸易与服务贸易的比较优势理论,分析找出上海发展国际服务贸易的动态比较优势与劣势;结合上海本地实际,借助国际服务贸易比较优势理论的改进模型,实证研究影响上海国际服务贸易比较优势消长的有利与不利因素以及各种因素的作用机制;依据上述研究结论,有针对性地提出完善上海国际服务贸易扬长避短的发展战略、发展机制和政策措施的建议。
根据以上研究目标,本文的结构与逻辑安排为:
第1章阐述研究背景、研究问题的提出及研究意义、关于国际服务贸易比较优势理论研究文献综述、本文的研究目标、逻辑结构和研究方法。
第2章在定义服务贸易概念、范围与特征基础上,介绍国际服务贸易发展的趋势与格局结构,为全文研究界定边界和铺垫全局背景。
第3章在结合上海实际,运用和改进既有理论模型、指标和分析方法基础上,基于与同期香港、新加坡服务贸易总体对照比较,对上海国际服务贸易动态比较优势展开RCAS指标实证分析,度量认清上海服务贸易比较优势变化态势及现状。
第4章针对上海国际服务贸易动态比较优势,运用国际服务贸易比较优势影响因素的理论框架和计量模型,深入研究影响和改变上海服务贸易比较优势的主要因素,其中重点实证研究技术和资本、劳动力及人力资本等要素资源影响上海比较优势的动态过程,度量要素的影响程度和内在作用机理,并对各种要素影响上海服务贸易比较优势的原因进行分析。
第5章依据前面各章节理论和实证研究结论,针对上海实际情况,对上海服务贸易未来发展战略、制度安排、管理机制和政策措施提出具有可操作性的建议。
通过上述理论研究与实证分析可以发现,综合部门显性与相对比较优势,上海十大服务贸易部门中,超过半数的部门对香港与新加坡存在绝对优势,即便是绝对劣势部门,有些还存在相对比较优势,说明上海加快发展国际服务贸易具有深厚的基础与潜力。但同时,上海绝大部分具有绝对优势的服务贸易部门的优势在逐渐缩减,绝对劣势部门中金融、通讯等影响力大、技术与资本含量高的现代服务业不具备相对比较优势等问题必须引起高度重视。此外还发现,人力资本对于改善上海服务贸易比较优势的作用最为突出,其作用不仅体现在对于先进服务生产部门技术外溢的模仿效应上,并且,作为一种服务生产的要素,人力资本投入总体对上海服务贸易部门比较优势的变化存在明显的促进作用,但影响程度在不同的服务部门有较大落差。
Being China's most important economic and financial city, Shanghai now is facing the changes in the mode of development, and speed up the formation of the international economic, financial, trade and shipping centre. The comprehensive development of the modern service industry and international trade in services is the focus of Shanghai's future economic development. International trade in services is a comparative advantage of countries or regions compete in the international market, and the dynamic changes also foretells a country or region's future prospects for the development of trade in services. Faced with the development of international trade in services challenges and opportunities, the study of the dynamic comparative advantages of international trade in services of Shanghai is of important strategic significance and practical application value.
With the conditions of the international economic environment, the domestic and regional environment, and the application of international trade and trade in services comparative advantage theory, this article is to identify the development of Shanghai international trade in services in dynamic comparative advantages and disadvantages, empirical research Shanghai’s impact of international trade in services growth and decline of comparative advantage, as well as the role of various factors mechanism, and propose the Shanghai International Services Trade development strategy, the development of mechanisms and policies measures.
According to the above objectives, the structure and logic of this arrangement is:
Chapter 1, described the background, the issue and the significance of the study, and gave some literatures of the international trade in services comparative advantage theory, also described this study objective, logical structure and research methods.
Chapter 2 introduced the development trend of pattern structure of international trade in services in the definition of trade in services concept, scope and characteristics
Chapter 3 measured RCAS indicators empirical analysis of Shanghai international trade in services dynamic comparative advantages with the application of existing theoretical models, indicators and analysis method.
Chapter 4 in-depth study on the main factors impact of trade in services and changing comparative advantage in Shanghai, which focuses on empirical research the dynamic process of techniques and capital, labor and human capital, and other factors affecting the Shanghai comparative advantages, with the use of the theoretical framework and measurement model of comparative advantages of international trade in services.
Chapter 5 put forward a workable proposal of Shanghai's future development strategy of trade in services, institutional arrangements, management mechanisms, and policies and measures, which based on theoretical and empirical research findings.
Through this theoretical research and empirical analysis can find that more than half of Shanghai 10 service trade sector have absolute advantage to Hong Kong and Singapore. Even if it is absolutely inferior sector, there are still some relatively advantages. All of which shows the profound foundation and potential of the development of Shanghai international trade in services. But the absolute advantage of most of the trade in services sector in Shanghai gradually reduced. It was also found that human capital plays the most prominent role to improve the comparative advantage of trade in services of Shanghai. And it is not only reflected in the production sector for advanced services technology spillover effect, and also, as a factor of production services, the overall human capital investment in Shanghai service trade sector promotes the changes in comparative advantage.
引文
1、保罗·克鲁格曼,茅瑞斯·奥伯斯法尔德,国际经济学,第五版,中国人民大学出版社,2002 年
2、陈宪,国际服务贸易一原理·政策·产业,立信会计出版社,2000 年
3、程大中,陈宪,服务贸易理论研究:现实基础、总体状况及初步设想,上海经济研究,2000 年第 12 期
4、程大中,陈宪,服务贸易的发展:上海的经验,上海经济研究,2003年第 10 期
5、程大中,陈宪,上海服务业发展的比较研究,社会科学,2003 年第 9期
6、程大中,中国服务贸易显性比较优势的定量分析,上海经济研究,2003年 5 期
7、范纯增,于光,服务贸易国际竞争力发展研究,国际贸易问题,2005年第 2 期
8、海闻,林德特,王新奎,国际贸易,上海人民出版社,2003 年
9、华而诚,论服务业在国民经济发展中的战略性地位,经济研究,2001年第 12 期
10、黄维兵,现代服务经济理论与中国服务业发展,西南财经大学出版社,2003
11、江小涓,李辉,服务业与中国经济:相关性、结构转换和加快增长的潜力,经济研究,2004 年第 1 期
12、江小涓,杨圣明,冯雷,中国对外经贸理论前沿,社会科学文献出版社,2000 年
13、康承东,我国服务贸易国际竞争力分析,国际贸易问题,2001 年第 1期
14、李慧中,许卫权,国际服务贸易动因及开放市场影响的经济学分析,世界经济文汇,2001 年第 2 期
15、李静萍,影响国际服务贸易的宏观因素,经济理论与经济管理,2002年第 11 期
16、李善同,华而诚,21 世纪初的中国服务业,经济科学出版社,2002 年
17、吕盈盈,田丽,比较优势理论在国际服务贸易中的作用分析,北京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2004 年第 3 期
18、韶泽,国际服务贸易的相关理论,财贸经济,1996 年 11 期
19、申朴,服务贸易中的动态比较优势研究,复旦大学出版社,2005 年
20、吴建伟,国际贸易比较优势的定量分析,上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1997 年
21、西奥多·W·舒尔茨,蒋斌等译,人力资本投资一教育和研究的作用,商务印书馆,1990 年
22、夏杰长,我国服务经济理论与政策前沿问题(2006-2007)研究述评,浙江树人大学学报,2007 年第 4 期
23、闫奕荣,服务贸易比较优势理论综述,经济师,2004 年第 10 期
24、杨圣明,刘力,服务贸易的兴起与发展,经济学动态,1999 年第 5 期
25、叶元,我国内地与香港服务贸易的比较研究,世界贸易组织动态与研究,2007 年第 5 期
26、殷凤,陈宪,上海服务业发展水平的国内与国际比较,上海经济研究,2005 年 12 期
27、尹翔硕,国际贸易教程,复旦大学出版社,2001 年
28、翟洪坤,上海市服务贸易竞争力分析及对策研究,[硕士学位论文],吉林大学,2007 年
29、中华人民共和国对外经济贸易合作部,2005 中国对外经济贸易白皮书,中国社会科学出版社,2006 年
30、朱喜安,加入 WTO 后上海服务贸易发展的优劣势分析,商业经济与管理,2003 年第 10 期
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2、陈宪,国际服务贸易一原理·政策·产业,立信会计出版社,2000 年
3、程大中,陈宪,服务贸易理论研究:现实基础、总体状况及初步设想,上海经济研究,2000 年第 12 期
4、程大中,陈宪,服务贸易的发展:上海的经验,上海经济研究,2003年第 10 期
5、程大中,陈宪,上海服务业发展的比较研究,社会科学,2003 年第 9期
6、程大中,中国服务贸易显性比较优势的定量分析,上海经济研究,2003年 5 期
7、范纯增,于光,服务贸易国际竞争力发展研究,国际贸易问题,2005年第 2 期
8、海闻,林德特,王新奎,国际贸易,上海人民出版社,2003 年
9、华而诚,论服务业在国民经济发展中的战略性地位,经济研究,2001年第 12 期
10、黄维兵,现代服务经济理论与中国服务业发展,西南财经大学出版社,2003
11、江小涓,李辉,服务业与中国经济:相关性、结构转换和加快增长的潜力,经济研究,2004 年第 1 期
12、江小涓,杨圣明,冯雷,中国对外经贸理论前沿,社会科学文献出版社,2000 年
13、康承东,我国服务贸易国际竞争力分析,国际贸易问题,2001 年第 1期
14、李慧中,许卫权,国际服务贸易动因及开放市场影响的经济学分析,世界经济文汇,2001 年第 2 期
15、李静萍,影响国际服务贸易的宏观因素,经济理论与经济管理,2002年第 11 期
16、李善同,华而诚,21 世纪初的中国服务业,经济科学出版社,2002 年
17、吕盈盈,田丽,比较优势理论在国际服务贸易中的作用分析,北京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2004 年第 3 期
18、韶泽,国际服务贸易的相关理论,财贸经济,1996 年 11 期
19、申朴,服务贸易中的动态比较优势研究,复旦大学出版社,2005 年
20、吴建伟,国际贸易比较优势的定量分析,上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1997 年
21、西奥多·W·舒尔茨,蒋斌等译,人力资本投资一教育和研究的作用,商务印书馆,1990 年
22、夏杰长,我国服务经济理论与政策前沿问题(2006-2007)研究述评,浙江树人大学学报,2007 年第 4 期
23、闫奕荣,服务贸易比较优势理论综述,经济师,2004 年第 10 期
24、杨圣明,刘力,服务贸易的兴起与发展,经济学动态,1999 年第 5 期
25、叶元,我国内地与香港服务贸易的比较研究,世界贸易组织动态与研究,2007 年第 5 期
26、殷凤,陈宪,上海服务业发展水平的国内与国际比较,上海经济研究,2005 年 12 期
27、尹翔硕,国际贸易教程,复旦大学出版社,2001 年
28、翟洪坤,上海市服务贸易竞争力分析及对策研究,[硕士学位论文],吉林大学,2007 年
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