中国国际收支双顺差与人民币汇率政策研究
|
摘要
中国国际收支的双顺差(以下简称双顺差)格局由来已久。20世纪90年代以来,除1992年、1998年的资本和金融项目①(非特别指明,以下简称资本项目或资本账户)和1993年的经常项目为逆差外,中国的经常项目顺差(主要表现为货物贸易顺差)和资本项目顺差(主要表现为直接投资顺差)已经持续将近20年。
双顺差给中国带来巨大经济利益的同时也给宏观经济制造了不少麻烦。双顺差造成中国外汇储备巨额累积和人民币升值压力,外汇占款剧增,而央行的对冲干预行为又形成流动性过剩预期,造成通货膨胀和资产价格泡沫此起彼伏,最终导致宏观调控效果不佳甚至丧失独立性。同时,由于累积的庞大外汇储备集中投资于美元及以美元计价的资产,在美元兑人民币贬值战略下,外汇储备面临贬值风险。随着全球经济陷入衰退和发达国家的贸易赤字不断扩大,国际社会抨击中国刻意压低人民币汇率以获取不公平的贸易优势,要求人民币持续升值以缓解与中国之间的贸易失衡问题。
本文的主要内容如下：
(一)中国国际收支双顺差的发展历程及特征
1.从2005年开始,经常项目顺差逐渐成为中国双顺差的主要来源。其中货物贸易顺差占经常项目顺差的80%以上,而约一半的出口贸易是由加工贸易尤其是外商投资企业的加工贸易贡献的。服务贸易逆差已持续多年,且有扩大趋势。除2007－2009年为顺差外,收益项目逆差已持续十几年,产生逆差的原因主要在于投资收益逆差过大。
2.中国在外直接投资增幅长期低于外国在华直接投资增幅,使得直接投资顺差逐渐成为资本项目顺差的主要来源。中国在外直接投资规模偏小,仅占中国国际投资总资产的6%左右；中国目前有超过4万亿美元的国际投资资产,近70%属于外汇资产,绝大部分被动投资于收益率很低的美国等发达经济体的国债。
(二)分析中国双顺差的理论模型
基于微观消费者的跨期消费最优选择模型,研究开放经济条件下两国经济的跨期消费和跨期贸易模式,同时从跨期资本流动角度对资本项目顺差与经常项目顺差之间的逻辑关系进行了梳理,建立了分析中国双顺差的理论框架,对双顺差的性质及其成因有了更深的认识。
(三)产生双顺差的国际背景和国内根源
1.美国等发达国家的“去工业化”过程适逢中国的工业化、城市化处于飞速发展阶段。一方面发达国家由于制造业转移到国外导致其商品贸易逆差成为必然,同时其快速壮大的服务业又具有不可完全贸易的特性,发达国家很容易出现经常项目赤字,另一方面中国凭借改革开放政策,及时承接了发达国家转移出来的工业产能。
2.全球按生产链分工的模式使得中国成为“世界加工厂”。中国制造具有生产成本低、制造技术相对成熟、经济开放程度较高等优势,许多跨国企业将制造工厂从发达国家甚至从昔日的东亚“四小龙”转移到中国大陆,相当于中国承接了大部分原本属于它们的贸易顺差。
3.中国实行出口导向型外资优惠政策。在出口导向的政绩观指引下,中国各级政府采取资源价格人为低估、出口补贴和关税政策等手段,鼓励出口、抑制进口扩大了贸易顺差。同时对外资实行超国民待遇,吸引外资不断流入扩大了直接投资顺差。
4.国内消费有效需求相对不足。中国从计划经济向市场经济转型当中不公平的资源配置方式导致经济发展不均衡和收入分配不平等,虽然国民总储蓄率很高,但居民储蓄在国民总储蓄中的占比较小,从而使得社会平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向下降,同时政府和国企主导的以投资刺激经济增长的方式推动了无效供给的不断增加,最终表现为经济整体性的消费需求相对不足。
5.国内过剩储蓄转化成投资需要借助国际收支渠道,扩大了资本项目顺差规模。由于中国金融市场不发达,在外资优惠政策的刺激下,中国过剩国民储蓄并非通过国内金融市场直接转化成国内投资,而是需要转道国际金融市场,以FDI的形式回流后弥补中国国内的实际投资一储蓄缺口。于是便存在国内储蓄为外国在华投资“曲线”融资的情况：一方面中国通过贸易顺差积累外汇储备成为资本输出国,主要投资于国外债券市场和货币市场,另一方面经由中国外汇储备融资的FDI又回流中国,主要投资于企业股权。
(四)中国双顺差的影响、可持续性与再平衡机制
1.双顺差对中国经济利益的影响
双顺差造成外汇储备巨额累积,汇率管制下的对冲干预机制形成人民币升值预期,最终导致人民币升值的螺旋式“自我实现”。外汇占款成为中国流动性过剩的主要来源,而提高存款准备金率和发行央行票据只能暂时“封存”过剩流动性,实际上并没有消除流动性过剩带来的通货膨胀和资产价格泡沫预期。在双顺差格局暂难逆转的情况下,抑制流动性过剩的成本越来越大,中国宏观调控的独立性和有效性受到严重威胁。同时,在美元兑人民币贬值战略下,中国外汇储备的实际购买力迅速下降,经过数年贸易顺差辛苦积累的国民财富正被美元贬值战略不断“蚕食”
2.双顺差的可持续性
短期来看,中国的贸易顺差将惯性存在,但规模将逐步缩小。但是现阶段,中国出口优势依然存在,政府和企业都不会轻易放弃这种优势；同时中国出口导向型经济转型需要时间,消费增长仍需时日,这些都决定了出口依赖不会很快消失。此外,由于中国经济增长前景相对较好,中国市场的投资回报率在全球具有较强竞争力,金融项目顺差规模也不会迅速收窄。
但从长期来看,全球经济失衡难以持续,西方债务国家需要紧缩财政开支,国外需求萎缩似乎正在形成,未来对于中国出口的打击将是巨大的,贸易顺差可能会快速回落,迫使中国出口导向型经济结构尽快做出调整。
3.双顺差的再平衡机制
多年的双顺差带来的经济利益使得中国有能力调整自身经济和金融战略。继续深化人民币汇率形成机制改革,扩大人民币汇率弹性；抓住国际货币体系从美元本位向多元化转化的机遇,推进人民币国际化战略,努力摆脱美元依赖；扩大国内消费需求,调整出口创汇型经济政策,加大对外投资。
(五)人民币汇率变动对贸易收支影响的实证检验
实证分析方法采用向量自回归模型(VAR),进行了协整检验、误差修正、脉冲响应和方差分解。本文认为,人民币汇率对贸易收支的影响不显著,人民币升值短期能抑制贸易顺差的扩大,但从长期来说,人民币汇率对贸易条件的影响是不确定的,其效果取决于进出口商品的供求弹性。国外需求对我国贸易顺差的影响远大于人民币汇率,人民币汇率不是贸易顺差扩大的主要原因。同时发现,国内需求的增加对贸易顺差水平影响不显著。人民币升值并不能解决中国与其他国家之间的贸易失衡问题。
(六)人民币汇率决定机制
现阶段汇率保持稳定预期有利于强化世界各国对中国经济的增长预期和对人民币的信心,有利于中国出口导向型经济的转型和人民币国际化战略的推进。但是人民币汇率稳定不能简单地“钉死”,应在提高国际资本流动监测能力的基础上扩大人民币交易区间的浮动范围,发挥市场供求关系对人民币汇率的影响。在推进人民币汇率制度改革的过程中,必须保持有效的对资本跨境流动的管制,同时应当尽快推进利率市场化进程。
(七)人民币汇率制度选择
中国现阶段实行有管理浮动汇率制度符合当前宏观经济利益,有利于缓解人民币汇率的大幅波动对中国经济转型的不利影响。目前中国的利率和汇率市场化、人民币国际化、资本账户开放等改革措施正处于攻坚阶段,需要人民币汇率的稳定预期和汇率制度的灵活管理营造合适的改革环境。
(八)不足之处
1.由于本人学识有限,本文对理论模型的理解还不够透彻,计量经济模型略显简单,同时实证分析可能会因数据采集、处理的问题使结论偏离正确方向。
2.本文没有建立分析人民币汇率对贸易收支影响的创新性数量模型,仅利用现有成熟的计量模型进行了实证检验,没有建立更加精确的模型来求证汇率对我国贸易收支的影响。
3.由于汇率政策的选择受国家政策和经济改革路径的影响较大,甚至牵涉到国际政治因素,故本文没有建立分析人民币汇率决定机制的理论框架,仅结合人民币汇率对贸易收支影响的实证检验结果,对人民币汇率的决定机制进行了理论探讨。有可能使分析结果偏重于经验分析,对一些问题的看法可能过于主观,尚不够成熟和细致。
'Double Surpluses'has been a usual issue in China's balance of payment. Since1990s, surplus in current account (especially goods) and capital account (mainly direct investment) has lasted long. Over20years, China only experienced a deficit in the capital and financial account in1992and in1998and one in current account in1993.
'Double Surpluses'brought great economic benefit, yet problems to our macro-economy. It led to constantly accumulation of foreign reserve and great pressure on the appreciation of Renminbi (RMB). However, the hedging action of the Central Bank of China would lead to the problem of excess liquidity, which would cause the inflation and bubble in property market, finally weaken the effect of macro-control and even let the control lose its independence. Meanwhile, the huge amount of foreign reserve was mainly invested or valued in US dollars. Alongside the devaluation of the US dollar, the reserve would devalue. As the global economy deteriorates and trade deficits of the developed countries expanding, criticism and complaints have appeared that RMB should appreciate to enhance the fairness of global trading.
The main content of this article was listed as following:
Chapter1analyzed'Double Surpluses'in China's balance of payment.
1. Firstly, since2005,'Double Surpluses'were mainly due to the current account surplus, of which80%or more came from commodities trading. Half of the exporting was from the processing trade, especially processing enterprises invested by the foreign merchant. Secondly, services trade deficit has lasted for many years and the number of deficit was ever expanding. Recent ten years, the income items became positive only from2007to2009.
2. Direct investment surplus is the main source of the capital account surplus. It has been a long time that the growth of China's direct investment in foreign countries, is much smaller than that of the direct foreign investment in China, which lead to the huge surplus in direct investment. The amount of direct investment took only6%of the total foreign investment made by China. Now China has more than4000billion international investment, of which70%are foreign exchange assets. The vast majority of the investment was used to buy the national bonds of the developed countries like the United States. The return rate of these bonds has low return rate.
Chapter2constructed a model to analyze the'double surpluses'.
Based on the current condition of'Double Surpluses'and Consumers'intertemporal optimal selection model, the author tried to research on the intertemporal consumption and trading model in the open economy, and also discussed about the surpluses on the current account and the capital account from the perspective of flowing of intertemporal capital. Still, a theoretical model was built to analyze the'Double Surpluses'in China.
Chapter3focused on the international environment of'Double Surpluses'and its causes
1. While urbanization and industrialization in China are proceeding rapidly, de-industrialization occurred in developed countries. On one hand, the shifting of manufacturing abroad would bring the developed countries deficit in commodities trading, and the service can not be fully tradable. Thus it is easy that there were deficit in their current account. On the other hand, relied on the reform and opening on policy, China took the developed countries'orders and enlarged its industrial capacity. Moreover, the export-oriented preferential policies have attracted a large amount of foreign capital into China, and formed the'Double Surpluses'.
2. The global production chains made China as the'world's factory'. Low labour cost and increasing manufacturing capacity made mainland China a perfect place for multinational enterprises to build factories. A lot of factories in the developed countries or those in the East Asian Economic Powers'Four Little Dragon'wer moved to the mainland China. So did the surplus.
3. China implemented export-oriented preferential foreign capital policy. In export-oriented achievements guidance, the Chinese government took a few charges like underestimated RMB, under-valued resource, favorable tariff policy to encourage export and suppress import, which expanded the surplus. Besides, the superiority of foreign capital over domestic capital attracted a lot of foreign investment and expanded the surplus of direct investment.
4. Domestic consumption was relatively insufficient. The unfair distribution of resource distribution in the developing process from planned economy to market economy caused the unbalanced development and unfairness in income distribution. Although the resident's savings rate is high, the percentage of residents'savings accounts only a small part in the national total savings. Thus the social average consumption tendency and marginal propensity come down. At the same time, the ever-increasing investment dominated by the government and state-owned enterprises enhanced the valid supplies, which finally led to relatively insufficient consumer demand.
5. Converting domestic savings into investment needs some international payment channels, which expands the capital surplus of China. The financial market of China is underdeveloped, but governments at all levels were willing to attract more foreign investment and tend to provide various kinds of preferential policies. The domestic savings surplus is not through the domestic financial market directly into domestic investment, but need to make their way to the international financial market, so as to make up the form of FDI backflow actual domestic investment-savings gap. This has formed the curve way that the domestic savings finance the foreign investment. On one hand, China has become the capital exporter by accumulating foreign exchange reserves from the commodities trading and invested primarily in foreign bond market and money market. On the other hand, financed by Chinese reserve, the FDI entered the Chinese capital market again, mainly in the form of equity investment of Chinese enterprises.
Chapter4analyzed the effect, continuity and rebalancing of'Double Surpluses'
1. Economy influence made by Double surpluses
Double surpluses cause huge foreign exchange reserves accumulation. Under control of the hedge intervention mechanism, the exchange rate formed the RMB appreciation. Foreign exchange has become main source of excess liquidity of China. Raising the reserve deposit ratio and issuing central bank bills can only temporarily seal excess liquidity, but not eliminate inflation and asset price bubble that excess liquidity brought. Under the unchanging'Double Surplus'condition, the cost of inhibiting the excess liquidity grow higher and higher, and the independence and effectiveness of China's macroeconomic regulation and control was severely threatened. As American adopted the strategies to devalued dollars, the actual purchasing power of China's foreign exchange reserves tends to drop quickly, and the national wealth from commodities surplus tends to be devalued as well.
2. The sustainability of'Double Surpluses'
In the short term, trade surplus would exist as a rule, but gradually reduce in scale. Due to the obvious advantage in export, Chinese government and the enterprises would not easily give up the expanding trade surplus advantage. The export-driven economic transformation and the consumption growth would take some time. Thus, the export dependence would not disappear soon. However, since the economic growth prospects in China are relatively good, the rate of return on the investment of Chinese market is still competitive. Chinese market is still attractive to the foreign capital. Therefore, the surplus on the financial items would not be narrowed soon.
But in the long run, global economic imbalances cannot last forever. The western countries need to tighten fiscal spending debt, which would cause inevitable shrinking in the overseas demand and huge strike to Chinese export in the future. Moreover, the trade surplus may fell back quickly. All these issues would force China to make adjustments on the export-oriented economic structure.
3. The rebalancing mechanism of'Double Surpluses'
Surplus brought both economic difficulties and benefits in making China capable to adjust their own economic and financial strategies. We should improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, expand exchange rate flexibility. Besides, we should take the opportunities that the international monetary system transferred from the USD standard to diversification of multiple currencies to improve the RMB internationalization and get ride of the dependence of the US dollars. Moreover, we need to expand domestic consumption; adjust the foreign trade policy of'foreign exchange earning; strengthen the foreign investment; expand the scope of application of foreign exchange reserves and increase investment returns.
Chapter5analyzed the empirical test of the influence of RMB exchange rate on the balance of trade
The vector regression model (VAR) model was adopted, a co-integration test, error correction, impulse response and variance decomposition were used. According to the results of the test, the influence of exchange rate of the RMB on the balance of the trade was not significant, the appreciation of the RMB in short-term can restrain trade surplus from widening. But in the long run. The influence of the exchange rate of the RMB on trading was uncertain. The effect depends on the supply and demand elasticity of import and export commodity. Foreign demand exerted greater influence on Chinese trade surplus than the RMB exchange rate did. The exchange rate of the RMB was not the main cause for the trade surplus expansion. Growth of domestic demand had no significant effect on trade surplus level.The appreciation of the RMB will not solve the trade imbalance between China and other countries.
Chapter6analyzed RMB exchange rate determination mechanism
At present, to keep a stable exchange rate can help strengthen the world's confidence to the economic growth prospects and RMB. Still, it would be helpful for the transformation of the export-oriented economy and the propulsion of RMB internationalization strategies. Besides, to ensure RMB exchange rate stability did not mean to crucify, but to build up a market determination mechanism for RMB exchange rate, through enlarging the trading band margins of RMB on the basis of improving the international capital flow monitoring capabilities. In the process of marketizing RMB exchange rate, China must remain effective control for speculative capital, and promote the marketization of interest soon.
Chapter7analyzed Choice of RMB exchange rate regime
The present management for floating exchange rate system accord with the macro economic interests. It can help release the adverse effect that RMB exchange rate fluctuations would bring to Chinese economy. At present, Reform measures like the marketization of rates and exchange rate, the free flow of capital is in a crucial stage. Thus, a stable RMB exchange rate expectation and flexible management of exchange rate system are desperately needed.
Chapter8pointed out the inadequacies of this article
1. Because of my limited knowledge, the understanding of the theoretical model is not enough thorough econometric model is a bit simple, empirical analysis conclusions deviate from the correct direction may be due to data acquisition, processing.
2. This article does not establish innovative econometric model of the RMB exchange rate on trade balance, only the use of existing mature model to an empirical test, do not use more accurate models to verify the impact of exchange rate on China's trade balance.
3. Since the choice of exchange rate policy by the greater impact on national policies and economic reform path, or even involved in the international political factors, so this article does not establish a theoretical framework, analysis of the RMB exchange rate determination mechanism only from the empirical analysis of the RMB exchange rate and trade balance point of view, qualitative assessment of the decision mechanism of the RMB exchange rate.
双顺差给中国带来巨大经济利益的同时也给宏观经济制造了不少麻烦。双顺差造成中国外汇储备巨额累积和人民币升值压力,外汇占款剧增,而央行的对冲干预行为又形成流动性过剩预期,造成通货膨胀和资产价格泡沫此起彼伏,最终导致宏观调控效果不佳甚至丧失独立性。同时,由于累积的庞大外汇储备集中投资于美元及以美元计价的资产,在美元兑人民币贬值战略下,外汇储备面临贬值风险。随着全球经济陷入衰退和发达国家的贸易赤字不断扩大,国际社会抨击中国刻意压低人民币汇率以获取不公平的贸易优势,要求人民币持续升值以缓解与中国之间的贸易失衡问题。
本文的主要内容如下：
(一)中国国际收支双顺差的发展历程及特征
1.从2005年开始,经常项目顺差逐渐成为中国双顺差的主要来源。其中货物贸易顺差占经常项目顺差的80%以上,而约一半的出口贸易是由加工贸易尤其是外商投资企业的加工贸易贡献的。服务贸易逆差已持续多年,且有扩大趋势。除2007－2009年为顺差外,收益项目逆差已持续十几年,产生逆差的原因主要在于投资收益逆差过大。
2.中国在外直接投资增幅长期低于外国在华直接投资增幅,使得直接投资顺差逐渐成为资本项目顺差的主要来源。中国在外直接投资规模偏小,仅占中国国际投资总资产的6%左右；中国目前有超过4万亿美元的国际投资资产,近70%属于外汇资产,绝大部分被动投资于收益率很低的美国等发达经济体的国债。
(二)分析中国双顺差的理论模型
基于微观消费者的跨期消费最优选择模型,研究开放经济条件下两国经济的跨期消费和跨期贸易模式,同时从跨期资本流动角度对资本项目顺差与经常项目顺差之间的逻辑关系进行了梳理,建立了分析中国双顺差的理论框架,对双顺差的性质及其成因有了更深的认识。
(三)产生双顺差的国际背景和国内根源
1.美国等发达国家的“去工业化”过程适逢中国的工业化、城市化处于飞速发展阶段。一方面发达国家由于制造业转移到国外导致其商品贸易逆差成为必然,同时其快速壮大的服务业又具有不可完全贸易的特性,发达国家很容易出现经常项目赤字,另一方面中国凭借改革开放政策,及时承接了发达国家转移出来的工业产能。
2.全球按生产链分工的模式使得中国成为“世界加工厂”。中国制造具有生产成本低、制造技术相对成熟、经济开放程度较高等优势,许多跨国企业将制造工厂从发达国家甚至从昔日的东亚“四小龙”转移到中国大陆,相当于中国承接了大部分原本属于它们的贸易顺差。
3.中国实行出口导向型外资优惠政策。在出口导向的政绩观指引下,中国各级政府采取资源价格人为低估、出口补贴和关税政策等手段,鼓励出口、抑制进口扩大了贸易顺差。同时对外资实行超国民待遇,吸引外资不断流入扩大了直接投资顺差。
4.国内消费有效需求相对不足。中国从计划经济向市场经济转型当中不公平的资源配置方式导致经济发展不均衡和收入分配不平等,虽然国民总储蓄率很高,但居民储蓄在国民总储蓄中的占比较小,从而使得社会平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向下降,同时政府和国企主导的以投资刺激经济增长的方式推动了无效供给的不断增加,最终表现为经济整体性的消费需求相对不足。
5.国内过剩储蓄转化成投资需要借助国际收支渠道,扩大了资本项目顺差规模。由于中国金融市场不发达,在外资优惠政策的刺激下,中国过剩国民储蓄并非通过国内金融市场直接转化成国内投资,而是需要转道国际金融市场,以FDI的形式回流后弥补中国国内的实际投资一储蓄缺口。于是便存在国内储蓄为外国在华投资“曲线”融资的情况：一方面中国通过贸易顺差积累外汇储备成为资本输出国,主要投资于国外债券市场和货币市场,另一方面经由中国外汇储备融资的FDI又回流中国,主要投资于企业股权。
(四)中国双顺差的影响、可持续性与再平衡机制
1.双顺差对中国经济利益的影响
双顺差造成外汇储备巨额累积,汇率管制下的对冲干预机制形成人民币升值预期,最终导致人民币升值的螺旋式“自我实现”。外汇占款成为中国流动性过剩的主要来源,而提高存款准备金率和发行央行票据只能暂时“封存”过剩流动性,实际上并没有消除流动性过剩带来的通货膨胀和资产价格泡沫预期。在双顺差格局暂难逆转的情况下,抑制流动性过剩的成本越来越大,中国宏观调控的独立性和有效性受到严重威胁。同时,在美元兑人民币贬值战略下,中国外汇储备的实际购买力迅速下降,经过数年贸易顺差辛苦积累的国民财富正被美元贬值战略不断“蚕食”
2.双顺差的可持续性
短期来看,中国的贸易顺差将惯性存在,但规模将逐步缩小。但是现阶段,中国出口优势依然存在,政府和企业都不会轻易放弃这种优势；同时中国出口导向型经济转型需要时间,消费增长仍需时日,这些都决定了出口依赖不会很快消失。此外,由于中国经济增长前景相对较好,中国市场的投资回报率在全球具有较强竞争力,金融项目顺差规模也不会迅速收窄。
但从长期来看,全球经济失衡难以持续,西方债务国家需要紧缩财政开支,国外需求萎缩似乎正在形成,未来对于中国出口的打击将是巨大的,贸易顺差可能会快速回落,迫使中国出口导向型经济结构尽快做出调整。
3.双顺差的再平衡机制
多年的双顺差带来的经济利益使得中国有能力调整自身经济和金融战略。继续深化人民币汇率形成机制改革,扩大人民币汇率弹性；抓住国际货币体系从美元本位向多元化转化的机遇,推进人民币国际化战略,努力摆脱美元依赖；扩大国内消费需求,调整出口创汇型经济政策,加大对外投资。
(五)人民币汇率变动对贸易收支影响的实证检验
实证分析方法采用向量自回归模型(VAR),进行了协整检验、误差修正、脉冲响应和方差分解。本文认为,人民币汇率对贸易收支的影响不显著,人民币升值短期能抑制贸易顺差的扩大,但从长期来说,人民币汇率对贸易条件的影响是不确定的,其效果取决于进出口商品的供求弹性。国外需求对我国贸易顺差的影响远大于人民币汇率,人民币汇率不是贸易顺差扩大的主要原因。同时发现,国内需求的增加对贸易顺差水平影响不显著。人民币升值并不能解决中国与其他国家之间的贸易失衡问题。
(六)人民币汇率决定机制
现阶段汇率保持稳定预期有利于强化世界各国对中国经济的增长预期和对人民币的信心,有利于中国出口导向型经济的转型和人民币国际化战略的推进。但是人民币汇率稳定不能简单地“钉死”,应在提高国际资本流动监测能力的基础上扩大人民币交易区间的浮动范围,发挥市场供求关系对人民币汇率的影响。在推进人民币汇率制度改革的过程中,必须保持有效的对资本跨境流动的管制,同时应当尽快推进利率市场化进程。
(七)人民币汇率制度选择
中国现阶段实行有管理浮动汇率制度符合当前宏观经济利益,有利于缓解人民币汇率的大幅波动对中国经济转型的不利影响。目前中国的利率和汇率市场化、人民币国际化、资本账户开放等改革措施正处于攻坚阶段,需要人民币汇率的稳定预期和汇率制度的灵活管理营造合适的改革环境。
(八)不足之处
1.由于本人学识有限,本文对理论模型的理解还不够透彻,计量经济模型略显简单,同时实证分析可能会因数据采集、处理的问题使结论偏离正确方向。
2.本文没有建立分析人民币汇率对贸易收支影响的创新性数量模型,仅利用现有成熟的计量模型进行了实证检验,没有建立更加精确的模型来求证汇率对我国贸易收支的影响。
3.由于汇率政策的选择受国家政策和经济改革路径的影响较大,甚至牵涉到国际政治因素,故本文没有建立分析人民币汇率决定机制的理论框架,仅结合人民币汇率对贸易收支影响的实证检验结果,对人民币汇率的决定机制进行了理论探讨。有可能使分析结果偏重于经验分析,对一些问题的看法可能过于主观,尚不够成熟和细致。
'Double Surpluses'has been a usual issue in China's balance of payment. Since1990s, surplus in current account (especially goods) and capital account (mainly direct investment) has lasted long. Over20years, China only experienced a deficit in the capital and financial account in1992and in1998and one in current account in1993.
'Double Surpluses'brought great economic benefit, yet problems to our macro-economy. It led to constantly accumulation of foreign reserve and great pressure on the appreciation of Renminbi (RMB). However, the hedging action of the Central Bank of China would lead to the problem of excess liquidity, which would cause the inflation and bubble in property market, finally weaken the effect of macro-control and even let the control lose its independence. Meanwhile, the huge amount of foreign reserve was mainly invested or valued in US dollars. Alongside the devaluation of the US dollar, the reserve would devalue. As the global economy deteriorates and trade deficits of the developed countries expanding, criticism and complaints have appeared that RMB should appreciate to enhance the fairness of global trading.
The main content of this article was listed as following:
Chapter1analyzed'Double Surpluses'in China's balance of payment.
1. Firstly, since2005,'Double Surpluses'were mainly due to the current account surplus, of which80%or more came from commodities trading. Half of the exporting was from the processing trade, especially processing enterprises invested by the foreign merchant. Secondly, services trade deficit has lasted for many years and the number of deficit was ever expanding. Recent ten years, the income items became positive only from2007to2009.
2. Direct investment surplus is the main source of the capital account surplus. It has been a long time that the growth of China's direct investment in foreign countries, is much smaller than that of the direct foreign investment in China, which lead to the huge surplus in direct investment. The amount of direct investment took only6%of the total foreign investment made by China. Now China has more than4000billion international investment, of which70%are foreign exchange assets. The vast majority of the investment was used to buy the national bonds of the developed countries like the United States. The return rate of these bonds has low return rate.
Chapter2constructed a model to analyze the'double surpluses'.
Based on the current condition of'Double Surpluses'and Consumers'intertemporal optimal selection model, the author tried to research on the intertemporal consumption and trading model in the open economy, and also discussed about the surpluses on the current account and the capital account from the perspective of flowing of intertemporal capital. Still, a theoretical model was built to analyze the'Double Surpluses'in China.
Chapter3focused on the international environment of'Double Surpluses'and its causes
1. While urbanization and industrialization in China are proceeding rapidly, de-industrialization occurred in developed countries. On one hand, the shifting of manufacturing abroad would bring the developed countries deficit in commodities trading, and the service can not be fully tradable. Thus it is easy that there were deficit in their current account. On the other hand, relied on the reform and opening on policy, China took the developed countries'orders and enlarged its industrial capacity. Moreover, the export-oriented preferential policies have attracted a large amount of foreign capital into China, and formed the'Double Surpluses'.
2. The global production chains made China as the'world's factory'. Low labour cost and increasing manufacturing capacity made mainland China a perfect place for multinational enterprises to build factories. A lot of factories in the developed countries or those in the East Asian Economic Powers'Four Little Dragon'wer moved to the mainland China. So did the surplus.
3. China implemented export-oriented preferential foreign capital policy. In export-oriented achievements guidance, the Chinese government took a few charges like underestimated RMB, under-valued resource, favorable tariff policy to encourage export and suppress import, which expanded the surplus. Besides, the superiority of foreign capital over domestic capital attracted a lot of foreign investment and expanded the surplus of direct investment.
4. Domestic consumption was relatively insufficient. The unfair distribution of resource distribution in the developing process from planned economy to market economy caused the unbalanced development and unfairness in income distribution. Although the resident's savings rate is high, the percentage of residents'savings accounts only a small part in the national total savings. Thus the social average consumption tendency and marginal propensity come down. At the same time, the ever-increasing investment dominated by the government and state-owned enterprises enhanced the valid supplies, which finally led to relatively insufficient consumer demand.
5. Converting domestic savings into investment needs some international payment channels, which expands the capital surplus of China. The financial market of China is underdeveloped, but governments at all levels were willing to attract more foreign investment and tend to provide various kinds of preferential policies. The domestic savings surplus is not through the domestic financial market directly into domestic investment, but need to make their way to the international financial market, so as to make up the form of FDI backflow actual domestic investment-savings gap. This has formed the curve way that the domestic savings finance the foreign investment. On one hand, China has become the capital exporter by accumulating foreign exchange reserves from the commodities trading and invested primarily in foreign bond market and money market. On the other hand, financed by Chinese reserve, the FDI entered the Chinese capital market again, mainly in the form of equity investment of Chinese enterprises.
Chapter4analyzed the effect, continuity and rebalancing of'Double Surpluses'
1. Economy influence made by Double surpluses
Double surpluses cause huge foreign exchange reserves accumulation. Under control of the hedge intervention mechanism, the exchange rate formed the RMB appreciation. Foreign exchange has become main source of excess liquidity of China. Raising the reserve deposit ratio and issuing central bank bills can only temporarily seal excess liquidity, but not eliminate inflation and asset price bubble that excess liquidity brought. Under the unchanging'Double Surplus'condition, the cost of inhibiting the excess liquidity grow higher and higher, and the independence and effectiveness of China's macroeconomic regulation and control was severely threatened. As American adopted the strategies to devalued dollars, the actual purchasing power of China's foreign exchange reserves tends to drop quickly, and the national wealth from commodities surplus tends to be devalued as well.
2. The sustainability of'Double Surpluses'
In the short term, trade surplus would exist as a rule, but gradually reduce in scale. Due to the obvious advantage in export, Chinese government and the enterprises would not easily give up the expanding trade surplus advantage. The export-driven economic transformation and the consumption growth would take some time. Thus, the export dependence would not disappear soon. However, since the economic growth prospects in China are relatively good, the rate of return on the investment of Chinese market is still competitive. Chinese market is still attractive to the foreign capital. Therefore, the surplus on the financial items would not be narrowed soon.
But in the long run, global economic imbalances cannot last forever. The western countries need to tighten fiscal spending debt, which would cause inevitable shrinking in the overseas demand and huge strike to Chinese export in the future. Moreover, the trade surplus may fell back quickly. All these issues would force China to make adjustments on the export-oriented economic structure.
3. The rebalancing mechanism of'Double Surpluses'
Surplus brought both economic difficulties and benefits in making China capable to adjust their own economic and financial strategies. We should improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, expand exchange rate flexibility. Besides, we should take the opportunities that the international monetary system transferred from the USD standard to diversification of multiple currencies to improve the RMB internationalization and get ride of the dependence of the US dollars. Moreover, we need to expand domestic consumption; adjust the foreign trade policy of'foreign exchange earning; strengthen the foreign investment; expand the scope of application of foreign exchange reserves and increase investment returns.
Chapter5analyzed the empirical test of the influence of RMB exchange rate on the balance of trade
The vector regression model (VAR) model was adopted, a co-integration test, error correction, impulse response and variance decomposition were used. According to the results of the test, the influence of exchange rate of the RMB on the balance of the trade was not significant, the appreciation of the RMB in short-term can restrain trade surplus from widening. But in the long run. The influence of the exchange rate of the RMB on trading was uncertain. The effect depends on the supply and demand elasticity of import and export commodity. Foreign demand exerted greater influence on Chinese trade surplus than the RMB exchange rate did. The exchange rate of the RMB was not the main cause for the trade surplus expansion. Growth of domestic demand had no significant effect on trade surplus level.The appreciation of the RMB will not solve the trade imbalance between China and other countries.
Chapter6analyzed RMB exchange rate determination mechanism
At present, to keep a stable exchange rate can help strengthen the world's confidence to the economic growth prospects and RMB. Still, it would be helpful for the transformation of the export-oriented economy and the propulsion of RMB internationalization strategies. Besides, to ensure RMB exchange rate stability did not mean to crucify, but to build up a market determination mechanism for RMB exchange rate, through enlarging the trading band margins of RMB on the basis of improving the international capital flow monitoring capabilities. In the process of marketizing RMB exchange rate, China must remain effective control for speculative capital, and promote the marketization of interest soon.
Chapter7analyzed Choice of RMB exchange rate regime
The present management for floating exchange rate system accord with the macro economic interests. It can help release the adverse effect that RMB exchange rate fluctuations would bring to Chinese economy. At present, Reform measures like the marketization of rates and exchange rate, the free flow of capital is in a crucial stage. Thus, a stable RMB exchange rate expectation and flexible management of exchange rate system are desperately needed.
Chapter8pointed out the inadequacies of this article
1. Because of my limited knowledge, the understanding of the theoretical model is not enough thorough econometric model is a bit simple, empirical analysis conclusions deviate from the correct direction may be due to data acquisition, processing.
2. This article does not establish innovative econometric model of the RMB exchange rate on trade balance, only the use of existing mature model to an empirical test, do not use more accurate models to verify the impact of exchange rate on China's trade balance.
3. Since the choice of exchange rate policy by the greater impact on national policies and economic reform path, or even involved in the international political factors, so this article does not establish a theoretical framework, analysis of the RMB exchange rate determination mechanism only from the empirical analysis of the RMB exchange rate and trade balance point of view, qualitative assessment of the decision mechanism of the RMB exchange rate.
引文
①陈雨露、汪昌云,金融学文献通论[M],北京：中国人民大学出版社,P185.2006。
①数据来源：富士康代工：499美元iPad中国组装费仅11.2美元[N],每日经济新闻网,2010年5月21日。
①许少强、甘小芳,消费行为与经济冲击对中国经常项目的影响一基于跨期最优消费理论的实证分析[J],金融研究,2010(10)
①陈腾龙、邵臻励,中国国际收支双顺差的成因、影响和再平衡机制研究[J],金融理论与实践,2012(5)：77－81.
②余永定、覃东海,中国的双顺差：性质、根源和解决办法[J].世界经济,2006(3)：31-41.
①数据来源：腾讯网,2007年5月31日,“国货复进口733.6亿美元中国成自已第七大进口国”,其引文来自《第一财经日报》。
①国数据来源：刘煜辉,理解中国“经济的逻辑”[J],财经,2012(1)
①数据来源：严友良,财政收入增速远超GDP隐忧[N],时代周报,2012年2月9日。
①数据来源：定军、沈麟,中国劳动者税率高达45%世行建议大幅减负[N],21世纪经济报道,2012年4月13日。
①数据来源：刘煜辉,理解中国“经济的逻辑”[J],财经,2012(1)
①数据来源：中国企业500强揭晓榜单背后的经济绩效之惑,21世纪经济报道,2011年9月6日。
②数据来源：珠三角经济回暖尚需时日发展内需是关键,21世纪经济报道,2010年4月20日。
①数据来源：李强,中国用工荒会持续多久?[J]世界博览,2011,(3)
①陈腾龙,经济转型时期扩大内需的财政政策建议研究[J],中国财政,2012(2)：48－49.
①陈雨露、汪昌云,金融学文献通论——宏观金融卷[M],北京：中国人民大学,p167－170,2006.李瑾,人民币汇率变动对浙江外贸影响的实证分析[D],浙江：浙江工商大学,2010.
①克鲁格曼,国际经济学[M],北京：中国人民大学出版社,2010.
①陈腾龙,人民币汇率政策抉择的思考[J],中国财政,2009(1)：69－71.
①陈腾龙,人民币汇率政策抉择的思考[J],中国财政,2009(1)：69－71.
①陈腾龙,人民币汇率政策抉择的思考[J],中国财政,2009(1)：69－71.
[1][美]彼得·纽曼、默里·米尔盖特、[英]约翰·伊特韦尔,新帕尔格雷夫货币金融大辞典(第一卷)[M],北京：经济科学出版社,2000.
[2]巴曙松、朱元倩、章宇娟,人民币有效汇率的波动趋势及其政策涵义[J],财经问题研究,2008,(5)：3-10.
[3]陈彪如,人民币汇率研究[M],上海：华东师范大学出版社,1992.
[4]陈斌开、万晓莉、傅雄广,人民币汇率、出口品价格与中国出口竞争力[J],金融研究,2010,(12)：30-42.
[5]陈浪南、何秀红、陈云,人民币汇率波动的价格传导效应研究,国际金融研究[J],2008,(6)：55-62.
[6]陈腾龙,经济转型时期扩大内需的财政政策建议[J],中国财政,2012,(2)：48-49.
[7]陈腾龙、邵臻励,中国国际收支双顺差的成因、影响和再平衡机制研究[J],金融理论与实践,2012,(5)：77-81.
[8]陈腾龙,人民币汇率政策抉择的思考[J],中国财政,2009(1)：69-71.
[9]陈雨露、陆猛,引入欧元后的国际货币体系改革[J],金融研究,1999,(6)：63－74.
[10]陈雨露、汪昌云,金融学文献通论[M],北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006：185.
[11]陈雨露、王芳、杨明,作为国家竞争战略的货币国际化：美元的经验证据——兼论人民币的国际化问题[J],经济研究,2005,(2)：35-44.
[12]迟明明,东亚货币合作与人民币国际化[D],北京：北京大学,2010.
[13]崔慧,汇率制度的比较与选择——兼论人民币汇率形成机制改革[D],上海：复旦大学,2006.
[14]戴祖样,我国贸易收支的弹性分析：1981-1995[J],经济研究,1997,(7)：55-62.
[15]范志勇,中国货币政策与汇率政策的协调与替代[J]世界经济,2005,(7)：37-42.
[16]傅钧文,外贸依存度国际比较与中国外贸的结构型风险分析[J],世界经济研究,2004,(4)：24-29.
[17]高瞻,我国外汇储备、汇率变动对通货膨胀的影响——基于国际收支视角的分析[J],国际金融研究,2010,(11)：4-10.
[18]郭远,人民币升值对我国对外贸易影响[D],北京：中国人民大学,2009.
[19]韩剑、张二震,基于跨时最优模型的中国经常项目——差额波动研究[J],经济科 学,2009,(6)：50-57.
[20]何慧刚,中国外汇冲销干预和货币政策独立性研究[J],财经研究,2007,(11)：18-30.
[21]贺力、平蔡兴,从国际经验看中国国际收支双顺差之“谜”[J],国际金融研究,2008,(9)：11-18.
[22]贺力平、林娟,试析国际金融危机与全球经济失衡的关系——兼评伯南克·保尔森“金融危机外因论”[J],国际金融研究,2009,(5)：29-38.
[23]黄海洲,人民币国际化：新的改革开放推进器[J],国际经济评论,2009,(4)：5-7.
[24]黄先海、杨君、肖明月,中国资本回报率变动的动因分析——基于资本深化和技术进步的视角[J],经济理论与经济管理,2011,(11)：47-54.
[25]黄晓龙,全球失衡、流动性过剩与货币危机——基于非均衡国际货币体系的分析视角[J],金融研究,2007,(8)：31－46.
[26]黄学军、吴冲锋,离岸人民币非交割远期与境内即期汇率价格的互动—改革前后[J].金融研究,2006,(11)：83－89.
[27]黄志刚、陈晓杰,人民币汇率波动弹性空间评估[J],经济研究,2010,(5)：41-54.
[28]纪敏、伍超明,人民币升值能否抑制通货膨胀：观点评述及检验[J],经济学动态,2008,(9)：52-57.
[29]贾海基,人民币汇率变动对中国外贸的影响[D],合肥：安徽大学,2006.
[30]姜波克、张青龙,货币国际化：条件与影响的研究综述[J],新金融,2005,(8)：6-9.
[31]金森俊树、赵志君,人民币汇率评估：日本经验谈[J],宏观经济研究,2006,(4)：48-63.
[32]李稻葵、尹兴中,国际货币体系新架构：后金融危机时代的研究[J],金融研究,2010,(2)：31－43.
[33]李伏安、林衫,国际货币体系的历史、现状——兼论人民币国际化的选择[J],金融研究,2009,(5)：61-70.
[34]李宏瑾、项卫星,中央银行基准利率、公开市场操作与间接货币调控——对央票操作及其基准利率作用的实证分析[J],财贸经济,2010,(4)：13-19.
[35]李建军,当代国际货币体系运行的理论框架、模式和面临的风险[J],国际金融研究,2009,(7)：65-72.
[36]李瑾,人民币汇率变动对浙江外贸影响的实证分析[D],浙江：浙江工商大学,2010.
[37]李婧,从跨境贸易人民币结算看人民币国际化战略[J],世界经济研究,2011,(2)：13-19.
[38]李琦,人民币汇率变动对中国进出口贸易的影响[D],上海：复旦大学,2007.
[39]李雪,人民币汇率变动对我国贸易结构的影响[D],武汉：武汉理工大学,2006.
[40]李扬、卢瑾,全球经济失衡形成机制研究新进展[J],经济学动态,2010,(3)：87-92.
[41]李扬、余维彬,全球经济失衡及中国面临的挑战[J],国际金融研究,2006,(2)：12-18.
[42]李志传,中国外汇储备增长与出口导向型经济结构——基于重商主义思想的研究[D],北京：中国社会科学院研究生院,2010.
[43]刘洁、蔡允革、汪明文,货币政策应对流动性过剩有效性研究：日本的经验[J],国际金融研究,2008,(6)：49-54.
[44]刘煜辉,理解中国宏观“经济的逻辑”[J],财经,2012,(2).
[45]刘绍保,人民币汇率与货币替代关系的实证研究——基于1997.4-2007.1中国的实际数据[J],国际金融研究,2008,(1).
[46]刘伟、凌江怀,人民币汇率升值与中美贸易失衡问题探讨[J],国际金融研究,2006,(9)：4-8.
[47]刘谊、胡国正、闫晓茗,国际货币体系非主流货币国际化对人民币国际化的启示——基于德国马克模式的思考[J],经济研究参考,2010,(22)：10-16.
[48]卢锋,解析中国资本回报率之谜[J],新财经,2007,(6)：34-35.
[49]卢锋,中国的双顺差、日本经验及失衡调整[J],国际经济评论,2006,(9－10)：58-62.
[50]卢锋,中国国际收支双顺差现象研究：对中国外汇储备突破万亿美元的理论思考[J],世界经济,2006,(11)：3－10.
[51]卢瑾,全球经济失衡：特征、机制及可持续性[D],北京：中国社会科学院研究生院,2010.
[52]卢向前,戴国强.人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响：1994--2003[J],经济研究,2005,(5)：31-39.
[53]陆岷峰、高攀,我国近十年存款准备金率调控的回顾与展望——基于阶段性视角的分析[J],财经科学,2011,(4)：25-32.
[54]陆前进,开放经济宏观经济学的理论发展脉络及其评述[J],国际金融研究,2005,(7)：44-49.
[55]罗纳德·麦金农著,曹红辉、王琛译,为什么中国的汇率要钉住美元：基于日元的历史分析[J],财贸经济,2007,(1)：34-42.
[56]马洪凯,人民币汇率制度的选择及其对我国经济的影响[D],北京：对外经济贸易大学,2008.
[57]麦金农,美元本位下的汇率：东亚高储蓄两难[M],北京：中国金融出版社,2006：113－141.
[58]裴平、孙兆斌,中国的国际收支失衡与货币错配,国际金融研究,2006,(8)：66-72.
[59]彭刚、廖泽芳,美元本位制下的全球经济失衡与调整——对当前全球金融危机的思考[J],中国人民大学学报,2010,(5)：52-61.
[60]彭兴韵,流动性、流动性过剩与货币政策[J],经济研究,2007,(11)：58-70.
[61]秦素红,人民币汇率波动对中美进出口贸易影响的实证分析[D],北京：对外经济贸易大学,2010.
[62]秦宛顺、靳云汇、卜永祥,资本流动、定价行为与汇率制度的福利分析[J],金融研究,2003,(1)：1－17.
[63]邱艳涛,国际收支“双顺差”对我国经济的影响及对策研究[D],吉林：吉林大学,2010.
[64]曲昭光,人民币资本账户可兑换的前提条件：基于国际收支结构可维持性的分析[J],世界经济,2006,(2)：62-70.
[65]人民币升值与我国对外贸易相互作用的关系研究[D],辽宁：东北师范大学,2010.
[66]任碧云,中国流动性过剩成因分析及政策建议[J],中国经济问题,2008,(1)：29－36.
[67]宋兆晗,人民币实际汇率变动对我国国际收支影响的分析[D],上海：复旦大学,2007.
[68]苏静,全球性金融危机背景下中美贸易反J曲线研究[D],湖南：湖南大学,2010.
[69]苏平贵,汇率制度选择与货币政策效应分析：蒙代尔—弗莱明模型在我国的适用性、改进及应用[J],国际金融研究,2003,(5)：4-9.
[70]粟志纲,透视人民币汇率——人民币汇率制度演变的政治分析[M],北京：中国经济出版社,2008.
[71]孙敬水、马淑琴,计量经济学[M],北京：清华大学出版社,2004.
[72]唐文进、谢海林,汇率变动、央行票据与冲销成本：2004－2009[J],财经研究,2011,(3)：114-123.
[73]汪洋,再论中国货币政策与汇率政策的冲突[J],国际经济评论,2005,(1－2)：39-44.
[74]王道平、范小云,现行的国际货币体系是否是全球经济失衡和金融危机的原因[J],世界经济,2011,(1)：52-72.
[75]王刚贞,基于资本管制下的贸易收支研究[D],浙江：苏州大学,2009.
[76]王胜、陈继勇、吴宏,中美贸易顺差与人民币汇率关系的实证分析[J],国际贸易问题,2007,(5)：34-40.
[77]王胜、邹恒甫,“新开放经济宏观经济学”发展综述[J],金融研究,2006,(1)：178－187.
[78]王婷,人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易影响研究[D],南昌：南昌大学,2008.
[79]王晓天、张淑娟,开放条件下货币政策目标规则的比较——一个简单的理论框架与中国货币政策名义锚的选择[J],金融研究,2007,(4)：14-29.
[80]王自锋、张伯伟、王君,经济增长、金融深化与全球经济失衡[J],财经研究,2009,(8)：26-35.
[81]韦玮,后危机时代人民币国际化构想[D],天津：天津工业大学,2010.
[82]魏晓琴、古小华,我国央行票据和存款准备金政策冲销有效性的实证研究[J],金融理论与实践,2010,(10)：35－39.
[83]武剑,货币冲销的理论分析与政策选择[J],管理世界,2005,(8)：6－10.
[84]夏斌、陈道富,从“广场协议”看日元升值的教训及启示[J],内蒙古金融研究,2010,(3)：6-9.
[85]谢平、张晓朴,货币政策与汇率政策的三次冲突——1994－2000年中国的实证分析[J],国际经济评论,2002,(5－6).
[86]熊爱宗、黄梅波,国际货币多元化与国际货币体系稳定[J],国际金融研究,2010,(9)：21-28.
[87]徐新华,人民币国际化研究：理论与实证[D],上海：复旦大学,2006.
[88]许少强、甘小芳,消费行为与经济冲击对中国经常项目的影响[J],金融研究,2010,(10)：36-53.
[89]杨继生,通胀预期、流动性过剩与中国通货膨胀的动态性质[J],经济研究,2009,(1)：106-117.
[90]杨晓莉,国际收支双顺差下的货币政策有效性思考[J],经济问题,2008,(5)：105-107.
[91]姚大庆,美元霸权体系下的人民币汇率政策研究[D],上海：复旦大学,2007.
[92]易纲,汇率制度的选择[J],金融研究,2000,(9)：46-52.
[93]余明,中国存款准备金政策有效性分析[J],世界经济,2009,(2)：56－65.
[94]余永定,M2/GDP的动态增长路径[J],世界经济,2002,(12)：3－13.
[95]余永定,关于外汇储备和国际收支结构的几个问题,世界经济与政治[J],1997,(10)：18-23.
[96]余永定,见证失衡——双顺差、人民币汇率和美元陷阱[J],国际经济评论,2010,(3)：7-44.
[97]余永定,理解流动性过剩[J],国际经济评论,2007,(7－8)：5－7.
[98]余永定,美国经济再平衡视角下中国面临的挑战[J],国际金融研究,2010,(1)：23-35.
[99]余永定,全球国际收支不平衡与中国的对策[J],国际金融研究,2007,(1)：21-24.
[100]余永定,人民币国际化必须目标明确、循序渐进,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心财经评论系列,2011年7月4日.
[101]余永定,覃东海,中国的双顺差：性质、根源和解决办法[J],世界经济,2006,(3)：31－41.
[102]余永定,走向再平衡：终结出口导向型创汇政策[N],21世纪经济报道,2010年4月3日.
[103]曾秋根,央行票据对冲外汇占款的成本、经济后果分析——兼评冲销干预的可持续性[J],财经研究,2005,(5)：63－72.
[104]翟宗辉,人民币汇率变动对贸易部门就业的影响[D],广东：中山大学,2009.
[105]张明,次贷危机对当前国际货币体系的冲击[J],世界经济与政治,2009,(6)：74－80.
[106]张明,人民币国际化：基于在岸与离岸的两种视角,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心,工作论文系列,2011年6月29日.
[107]张曙光,人民币汇率问题：升值及其成本——收益分析[J],经济研究,2005,(5)：17-30.
[108]张翔,中国外汇储备的周期性和周期适度规模研究——基于HP滤波方法[D],成都：西南财经大学,2008.
[109]钟伟,国际货币体系的百年变迁和远瞻[J],国际金融研究,2001,(4)：8－13.
[110]钟伟、胡松明、代慧君,人民币J曲线效应的经验分析[J],世界经济,2001,(1)：34-41.
[111]朱孟楠、严佳佳,人民币汇率波动：测算及国际比较[J],国际金融研究,2007,(10)：54-61.
[112]祝丹涛,金融体系效率的国别差异和全球经济失衡[J],金融研究,2008,(8)：29-38.
[113]Gianni De Nicolo and Iryna Ivaschenko, "Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities ", IMF Working Paper, March 2009.
[114]Helge Berger and Thomas Harjes, "Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?" IMF Working Paper, January 2009.
[115]Magnus Saxegaard, "Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African.", IMF, Working Paper, WP/06115. P12.
[116]Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux, Journal of Political Economy,1995, vol.103,NO.3.
[117]Rasmus Rufer and Vivio Stracca, "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter? "EBC, Working Paper Series, No 696. Nov 2006. p7.
[118]Rasmus Ruffer, What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter? European central bank,Working paper series, November 2006.
[119]Sebastian Becker, "Global Liquidity "glut" and Asset Price Inflation, Deutsche Bank Research", May 2007, p4.
[120]Robert Triffin, Gold and the Dollar Crisis, New Haven:Yale University Press, 1960.
[121]Michael P. Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau, and Peter Garber, "The Revived Bretton Woods System", International Journal of Finance & Economics, Sept.2004.
[122]Ronald McKinnon, "The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the US Current Account Deficit", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Oct.2001.
[123]-"The Transfer Problem in Reducing the US Current Account Deficit", Journal of Policy Modeling,2007,29(5).
[124]--"Trapped by the International Dollar Standard", Journal of Policy Modeling, 2005,27 (4).
[125]Robert A. Mundell, "Dollar Standards in the Dollar Era", Journal of Policy Modeling,2007, vol.29, issue 5.
[126]Bruce Greenwald and Joseph E. Stiglitz, A Modest Proposal for International Monetary Reform, International Economic Association Meeting, Istanbul, Jun.2008.
[127]Kraay, A., Household Saving in China, World Bank Economic Review, Vol.14, No.3 pp 545-570, September 2000.
[128]Modigliani, F. and Cao, Shi Larry, The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis, Journal of Economic Literature Vol.42, No.1, pp 145-170, March 2004.
[129]Campbell, J. Y. and Shiller, R.J., Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models, Journal of Political Economy,1987.
[130]atalina M. Bianco. The Subprime Lending Crisis:Causes and Effects of the Mortgage Meltdown[C]. CCH,2008.
[131]Banerjee, A.V., Sesley. Timothy, Guinnane, Timothy W. The Neighbor's keeper: the decision of a credit cooperative with theory and a test [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994.
[132]Berger.A.N, Undell.GF. The economics of small business finance:The roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle [J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,1998,22.
[133]Bernard S Black, Ronald J Gilson. Venture capital and structure of capital market: banks versus stock market [J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1998,47.
[134]Cerra,V. and Saxena,S.C. How Responsive Is Chinese Export Supply to Market Signals? [J]China Economic Review.2003,14,pp350-370.
[135]Dees,S. The Real Exchange Rate and Types of Trade-Heterogeneity of Trade Behaviours in China[R/OL].Paper presented at the Workshop on China's Economy Organized by the CEPII in December 2001.
[136]Dellmo,Hans,"Relationships between Swedish Producer and Import Prices and the CPI"Sveriges Riks bank Working Paper No.29.1996.
[137]Demsetz, Lehn, K. The Structure of Corporate Ownership:Causes and Consequences [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1985,93.
[138]Dev Strichek. How to Determine the Value of A Firm [J]. Management Accounting, 1983.
[139]Diamond.D. Financial intermediation and delegated monitoring[C]. Review of Economic Studies,1984, Vol.51.
[140]Eckaus,R.S. Should China Appreciate the Yuan[R/OL]. MIT Working Paper.2004, 04-16.
[141]Engel R.F,and C.W.J Granger,Co-integration and Error Correction:Representation, Estimation and Testing[J].Econometrica.1987(35),pp251-252
[142]Feinberg Robert, The Effects of Foreign Exchange Movements on U.S Domestic Prices, The Review of Economics and Statistics,Vol.71,No.3.1989,pp 505-511.
[143]Feinberg Robert, The Interaction of Foreign Exchange and Market Power Effects on German Domestic Prices, The Journal of Industrial Economics Vol.35,No 1.1986,pp61-70.
[144]Garcia-Herrero, Alicia, Tuuli Koivu. Can the Chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?[R/OL].BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, BOFIT, Institute for Economies in Transition.
[145]Granger C. Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods [J].Econometrica.l969,37, pp424-438.
[146]Hsiao. Autoregressive Modeling and Money-Income Causality Detection [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics.1981,7,pp.85-106.
[147]Jin, Z. The Dynamics of Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments in China:1980-2002[R/OL].IMF Working Paper.2003,03/67.
[148]Jonathan McCarthy,"Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Important Prices to Domestic Inflation in some Industrialized Economies", BIS Working Paper,No.79.1999.
[149]Kamada,K.and Takagawa,I.Policy Coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific[R/OL].Bank of Japan Working Paper.2005,No.05-E-4.
[150]Kim,Ki-Ho,"Us Inflation and the Dollar Exchange Rate:A Vector Error Correction Model". Applied Economics, Vol.30.1998,pp 613-619.
[151]Krugman and Baldwin. The Persistence of the US Trade Deficit[J]. Bookings Papers on Economic Activity,1987.
[152]Lau,F.,Mo,Y.and Li,K. The Impact of a Renminbi Appreciation on Global Imbalances and Intra-Regional Trade[R/OL].Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin. March 2004,pp.16-26.
[153]Leith J.Clark, The Exchange Rate and the Price Level in a Small Open Economy: Journal of PolicyModeling,13(2).1991,pp.309-315.
[154]Marquez,J.and Schindler,J.W. Exchange-Rate Effects on China's Trade:An Interim Report[R/OL].Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. International Finance Discussion Papers.2006,No.861.
[155]Maurice Obstfeld. Exchange Rate and Adjustment:Perspectives from the New open economy Macroeconomics [J]. Monetary and Economic Studies (Special Edition), 2002.
[156]Ross Robertson. The Small Business Ethic America [M]. Washington D.C.:Small Business Administration,1973.
[157]Ross Levine. Financial development and economic growth:views and agenda[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,1997.
[158]Shu C. and Yip,R. Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on the Chinese Economy[R/OL].Hong Kong Monetary Authority.No.3/06,July 2006.
[159]Strahan Philip E., Weston, James P. Small business lending and changing structure of the banking industry [J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,1998,22.
[160]Susan Pozom. Conditional Exchange-Rate Volatility and the Volume of International Trade:Evidence from the Early 1900s[C]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1992(2), Vol.74.
[161]Udo Broll, Bernhard Eckwert. Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade[J]. Southern Economic Journal, Jul,1999(1), Vol.66.
[162]Unzo Watada, Song Wen. Exposure Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate in Business [J].IEEE Computer Society,2008.
[163]Williamson, John., The Crawling Peg, Princeton Essays in International Finance, 1965.
[164]Williamson, John, The Exchange Rate System, Washington:Institute for International Economics,1985.
[165]Woo Wing,Hooper Peter Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nonfood, Nonfuel Products, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Vol.1984, No.2,1984, pp.511-536.
①数据来源：富士康代工：499美元iPad中国组装费仅11.2美元[N],每日经济新闻网,2010年5月21日。
①许少强、甘小芳,消费行为与经济冲击对中国经常项目的影响一基于跨期最优消费理论的实证分析[J],金融研究,2010(10)
①陈腾龙、邵臻励,中国国际收支双顺差的成因、影响和再平衡机制研究[J],金融理论与实践,2012(5)：77－81.
②余永定、覃东海,中国的双顺差：性质、根源和解决办法[J].世界经济,2006(3)：31-41.
①数据来源：腾讯网,2007年5月31日,“国货复进口733.6亿美元中国成自已第七大进口国”,其引文来自《第一财经日报》。
①国数据来源：刘煜辉,理解中国“经济的逻辑”[J],财经,2012(1)
①数据来源：严友良,财政收入增速远超GDP隐忧[N],时代周报,2012年2月9日。
①数据来源：定军、沈麟,中国劳动者税率高达45%世行建议大幅减负[N],21世纪经济报道,2012年4月13日。
①数据来源：刘煜辉,理解中国“经济的逻辑”[J],财经,2012(1)
①数据来源：中国企业500强揭晓榜单背后的经济绩效之惑,21世纪经济报道,2011年9月6日。
②数据来源：珠三角经济回暖尚需时日发展内需是关键,21世纪经济报道,2010年4月20日。
①数据来源：李强,中国用工荒会持续多久?[J]世界博览,2011,(3)
①陈腾龙,经济转型时期扩大内需的财政政策建议研究[J],中国财政,2012(2)：48－49.
①陈雨露、汪昌云,金融学文献通论——宏观金融卷[M],北京：中国人民大学,p167－170,2006.李瑾,人民币汇率变动对浙江外贸影响的实证分析[D],浙江：浙江工商大学,2010.
①克鲁格曼,国际经济学[M],北京：中国人民大学出版社,2010.
①陈腾龙,人民币汇率政策抉择的思考[J],中国财政,2009(1)：69－71.
①陈腾龙,人民币汇率政策抉择的思考[J],中国财政,2009(1)：69－71.
①陈腾龙,人民币汇率政策抉择的思考[J],中国财政,2009(1)：69－71.
[1][美]彼得·纽曼、默里·米尔盖特、[英]约翰·伊特韦尔,新帕尔格雷夫货币金融大辞典(第一卷)[M],北京：经济科学出版社,2000.
[2]巴曙松、朱元倩、章宇娟,人民币有效汇率的波动趋势及其政策涵义[J],财经问题研究,2008,(5)：3-10.
[3]陈彪如,人民币汇率研究[M],上海：华东师范大学出版社,1992.
[4]陈斌开、万晓莉、傅雄广,人民币汇率、出口品价格与中国出口竞争力[J],金融研究,2010,(12)：30-42.
[5]陈浪南、何秀红、陈云,人民币汇率波动的价格传导效应研究,国际金融研究[J],2008,(6)：55-62.
[6]陈腾龙,经济转型时期扩大内需的财政政策建议[J],中国财政,2012,(2)：48-49.
[7]陈腾龙、邵臻励,中国国际收支双顺差的成因、影响和再平衡机制研究[J],金融理论与实践,2012,(5)：77-81.
[8]陈腾龙,人民币汇率政策抉择的思考[J],中国财政,2009(1)：69-71.
[9]陈雨露、陆猛,引入欧元后的国际货币体系改革[J],金融研究,1999,(6)：63－74.
[10]陈雨露、汪昌云,金融学文献通论[M],北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006：185.
[11]陈雨露、王芳、杨明,作为国家竞争战略的货币国际化：美元的经验证据——兼论人民币的国际化问题[J],经济研究,2005,(2)：35-44.
[12]迟明明,东亚货币合作与人民币国际化[D],北京：北京大学,2010.
[13]崔慧,汇率制度的比较与选择——兼论人民币汇率形成机制改革[D],上海：复旦大学,2006.
[14]戴祖样,我国贸易收支的弹性分析：1981-1995[J],经济研究,1997,(7)：55-62.
[15]范志勇,中国货币政策与汇率政策的协调与替代[J]世界经济,2005,(7)：37-42.
[16]傅钧文,外贸依存度国际比较与中国外贸的结构型风险分析[J],世界经济研究,2004,(4)：24-29.
[17]高瞻,我国外汇储备、汇率变动对通货膨胀的影响——基于国际收支视角的分析[J],国际金融研究,2010,(11)：4-10.
[18]郭远,人民币升值对我国对外贸易影响[D],北京：中国人民大学,2009.
[19]韩剑、张二震,基于跨时最优模型的中国经常项目——差额波动研究[J],经济科 学,2009,(6)：50-57.
[20]何慧刚,中国外汇冲销干预和货币政策独立性研究[J],财经研究,2007,(11)：18-30.
[21]贺力、平蔡兴,从国际经验看中国国际收支双顺差之“谜”[J],国际金融研究,2008,(9)：11-18.
[22]贺力平、林娟,试析国际金融危机与全球经济失衡的关系——兼评伯南克·保尔森“金融危机外因论”[J],国际金融研究,2009,(5)：29-38.
[23]黄海洲,人民币国际化：新的改革开放推进器[J],国际经济评论,2009,(4)：5-7.
[24]黄先海、杨君、肖明月,中国资本回报率变动的动因分析——基于资本深化和技术进步的视角[J],经济理论与经济管理,2011,(11)：47-54.
[25]黄晓龙,全球失衡、流动性过剩与货币危机——基于非均衡国际货币体系的分析视角[J],金融研究,2007,(8)：31－46.
[26]黄学军、吴冲锋,离岸人民币非交割远期与境内即期汇率价格的互动—改革前后[J].金融研究,2006,(11)：83－89.
[27]黄志刚、陈晓杰,人民币汇率波动弹性空间评估[J],经济研究,2010,(5)：41-54.
[28]纪敏、伍超明,人民币升值能否抑制通货膨胀：观点评述及检验[J],经济学动态,2008,(9)：52-57.
[29]贾海基,人民币汇率变动对中国外贸的影响[D],合肥：安徽大学,2006.
[30]姜波克、张青龙,货币国际化：条件与影响的研究综述[J],新金融,2005,(8)：6-9.
[31]金森俊树、赵志君,人民币汇率评估：日本经验谈[J],宏观经济研究,2006,(4)：48-63.
[32]李稻葵、尹兴中,国际货币体系新架构：后金融危机时代的研究[J],金融研究,2010,(2)：31－43.
[33]李伏安、林衫,国际货币体系的历史、现状——兼论人民币国际化的选择[J],金融研究,2009,(5)：61-70.
[34]李宏瑾、项卫星,中央银行基准利率、公开市场操作与间接货币调控——对央票操作及其基准利率作用的实证分析[J],财贸经济,2010,(4)：13-19.
[35]李建军,当代国际货币体系运行的理论框架、模式和面临的风险[J],国际金融研究,2009,(7)：65-72.
[36]李瑾,人民币汇率变动对浙江外贸影响的实证分析[D],浙江：浙江工商大学,2010.
[37]李婧,从跨境贸易人民币结算看人民币国际化战略[J],世界经济研究,2011,(2)：13-19.
[38]李琦,人民币汇率变动对中国进出口贸易的影响[D],上海：复旦大学,2007.
[39]李雪,人民币汇率变动对我国贸易结构的影响[D],武汉：武汉理工大学,2006.
[40]李扬、卢瑾,全球经济失衡形成机制研究新进展[J],经济学动态,2010,(3)：87-92.
[41]李扬、余维彬,全球经济失衡及中国面临的挑战[J],国际金融研究,2006,(2)：12-18.
[42]李志传,中国外汇储备增长与出口导向型经济结构——基于重商主义思想的研究[D],北京：中国社会科学院研究生院,2010.
[43]刘洁、蔡允革、汪明文,货币政策应对流动性过剩有效性研究：日本的经验[J],国际金融研究,2008,(6)：49-54.
[44]刘煜辉,理解中国宏观“经济的逻辑”[J],财经,2012,(2).
[45]刘绍保,人民币汇率与货币替代关系的实证研究——基于1997.4-2007.1中国的实际数据[J],国际金融研究,2008,(1).
[46]刘伟、凌江怀,人民币汇率升值与中美贸易失衡问题探讨[J],国际金融研究,2006,(9)：4-8.
[47]刘谊、胡国正、闫晓茗,国际货币体系非主流货币国际化对人民币国际化的启示——基于德国马克模式的思考[J],经济研究参考,2010,(22)：10-16.
[48]卢锋,解析中国资本回报率之谜[J],新财经,2007,(6)：34-35.
[49]卢锋,中国的双顺差、日本经验及失衡调整[J],国际经济评论,2006,(9－10)：58-62.
[50]卢锋,中国国际收支双顺差现象研究：对中国外汇储备突破万亿美元的理论思考[J],世界经济,2006,(11)：3－10.
[51]卢瑾,全球经济失衡：特征、机制及可持续性[D],北京：中国社会科学院研究生院,2010.
[52]卢向前,戴国强.人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响：1994--2003[J],经济研究,2005,(5)：31-39.
[53]陆岷峰、高攀,我国近十年存款准备金率调控的回顾与展望——基于阶段性视角的分析[J],财经科学,2011,(4)：25-32.
[54]陆前进,开放经济宏观经济学的理论发展脉络及其评述[J],国际金融研究,2005,(7)：44-49.
[55]罗纳德·麦金农著,曹红辉、王琛译,为什么中国的汇率要钉住美元：基于日元的历史分析[J],财贸经济,2007,(1)：34-42.
[56]马洪凯,人民币汇率制度的选择及其对我国经济的影响[D],北京：对外经济贸易大学,2008.
[57]麦金农,美元本位下的汇率：东亚高储蓄两难[M],北京：中国金融出版社,2006：113－141.
[58]裴平、孙兆斌,中国的国际收支失衡与货币错配,国际金融研究,2006,(8)：66-72.
[59]彭刚、廖泽芳,美元本位制下的全球经济失衡与调整——对当前全球金融危机的思考[J],中国人民大学学报,2010,(5)：52-61.
[60]彭兴韵,流动性、流动性过剩与货币政策[J],经济研究,2007,(11)：58-70.
[61]秦素红,人民币汇率波动对中美进出口贸易影响的实证分析[D],北京：对外经济贸易大学,2010.
[62]秦宛顺、靳云汇、卜永祥,资本流动、定价行为与汇率制度的福利分析[J],金融研究,2003,(1)：1－17.
[63]邱艳涛,国际收支“双顺差”对我国经济的影响及对策研究[D],吉林：吉林大学,2010.
[64]曲昭光,人民币资本账户可兑换的前提条件：基于国际收支结构可维持性的分析[J],世界经济,2006,(2)：62-70.
[65]人民币升值与我国对外贸易相互作用的关系研究[D],辽宁：东北师范大学,2010.
[66]任碧云,中国流动性过剩成因分析及政策建议[J],中国经济问题,2008,(1)：29－36.
[67]宋兆晗,人民币实际汇率变动对我国国际收支影响的分析[D],上海：复旦大学,2007.
[68]苏静,全球性金融危机背景下中美贸易反J曲线研究[D],湖南：湖南大学,2010.
[69]苏平贵,汇率制度选择与货币政策效应分析：蒙代尔—弗莱明模型在我国的适用性、改进及应用[J],国际金融研究,2003,(5)：4-9.
[70]粟志纲,透视人民币汇率——人民币汇率制度演变的政治分析[M],北京：中国经济出版社,2008.
[71]孙敬水、马淑琴,计量经济学[M],北京：清华大学出版社,2004.
[72]唐文进、谢海林,汇率变动、央行票据与冲销成本：2004－2009[J],财经研究,2011,(3)：114-123.
[73]汪洋,再论中国货币政策与汇率政策的冲突[J],国际经济评论,2005,(1－2)：39-44.
[74]王道平、范小云,现行的国际货币体系是否是全球经济失衡和金融危机的原因[J],世界经济,2011,(1)：52-72.
[75]王刚贞,基于资本管制下的贸易收支研究[D],浙江：苏州大学,2009.
[76]王胜、陈继勇、吴宏,中美贸易顺差与人民币汇率关系的实证分析[J],国际贸易问题,2007,(5)：34-40.
[77]王胜、邹恒甫,“新开放经济宏观经济学”发展综述[J],金融研究,2006,(1)：178－187.
[78]王婷,人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易影响研究[D],南昌：南昌大学,2008.
[79]王晓天、张淑娟,开放条件下货币政策目标规则的比较——一个简单的理论框架与中国货币政策名义锚的选择[J],金融研究,2007,(4)：14-29.
[80]王自锋、张伯伟、王君,经济增长、金融深化与全球经济失衡[J],财经研究,2009,(8)：26-35.
[81]韦玮,后危机时代人民币国际化构想[D],天津：天津工业大学,2010.
[82]魏晓琴、古小华,我国央行票据和存款准备金政策冲销有效性的实证研究[J],金融理论与实践,2010,(10)：35－39.
[83]武剑,货币冲销的理论分析与政策选择[J],管理世界,2005,(8)：6－10.
[84]夏斌、陈道富,从“广场协议”看日元升值的教训及启示[J],内蒙古金融研究,2010,(3)：6-9.
[85]谢平、张晓朴,货币政策与汇率政策的三次冲突——1994－2000年中国的实证分析[J],国际经济评论,2002,(5－6).
[86]熊爱宗、黄梅波,国际货币多元化与国际货币体系稳定[J],国际金融研究,2010,(9)：21-28.
[87]徐新华,人民币国际化研究：理论与实证[D],上海：复旦大学,2006.
[88]许少强、甘小芳,消费行为与经济冲击对中国经常项目的影响[J],金融研究,2010,(10)：36-53.
[89]杨继生,通胀预期、流动性过剩与中国通货膨胀的动态性质[J],经济研究,2009,(1)：106-117.
[90]杨晓莉,国际收支双顺差下的货币政策有效性思考[J],经济问题,2008,(5)：105-107.
[91]姚大庆,美元霸权体系下的人民币汇率政策研究[D],上海：复旦大学,2007.
[92]易纲,汇率制度的选择[J],金融研究,2000,(9)：46-52.
[93]余明,中国存款准备金政策有效性分析[J],世界经济,2009,(2)：56－65.
[94]余永定,M2/GDP的动态增长路径[J],世界经济,2002,(12)：3－13.
[95]余永定,关于外汇储备和国际收支结构的几个问题,世界经济与政治[J],1997,(10)：18-23.
[96]余永定,见证失衡——双顺差、人民币汇率和美元陷阱[J],国际经济评论,2010,(3)：7-44.
[97]余永定,理解流动性过剩[J],国际经济评论,2007,(7－8)：5－7.
[98]余永定,美国经济再平衡视角下中国面临的挑战[J],国际金融研究,2010,(1)：23-35.
[99]余永定,全球国际收支不平衡与中国的对策[J],国际金融研究,2007,(1)：21-24.
[100]余永定,人民币国际化必须目标明确、循序渐进,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心财经评论系列,2011年7月4日.
[101]余永定,覃东海,中国的双顺差：性质、根源和解决办法[J],世界经济,2006,(3)：31－41.
[102]余永定,走向再平衡：终结出口导向型创汇政策[N],21世纪经济报道,2010年4月3日.
[103]曾秋根,央行票据对冲外汇占款的成本、经济后果分析——兼评冲销干预的可持续性[J],财经研究,2005,(5)：63－72.
[104]翟宗辉,人民币汇率变动对贸易部门就业的影响[D],广东：中山大学,2009.
[105]张明,次贷危机对当前国际货币体系的冲击[J],世界经济与政治,2009,(6)：74－80.
[106]张明,人民币国际化：基于在岸与离岸的两种视角,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心,工作论文系列,2011年6月29日.
[107]张曙光,人民币汇率问题：升值及其成本——收益分析[J],经济研究,2005,(5)：17-30.
[108]张翔,中国外汇储备的周期性和周期适度规模研究——基于HP滤波方法[D],成都：西南财经大学,2008.
[109]钟伟,国际货币体系的百年变迁和远瞻[J],国际金融研究,2001,(4)：8－13.
[110]钟伟、胡松明、代慧君,人民币J曲线效应的经验分析[J],世界经济,2001,(1)：34-41.
[111]朱孟楠、严佳佳,人民币汇率波动：测算及国际比较[J],国际金融研究,2007,(10)：54-61.
[112]祝丹涛,金融体系效率的国别差异和全球经济失衡[J],金融研究,2008,(8)：29-38.
[113]Gianni De Nicolo and Iryna Ivaschenko, "Global Liquidity, Risk Premiums and Growth Opportunities ", IMF Working Paper, March 2009.
[114]Helge Berger and Thomas Harjes, "Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?" IMF Working Paper, January 2009.
[115]Magnus Saxegaard, "Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African.", IMF, Working Paper, WP/06115. P12.
[116]Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff, Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux, Journal of Political Economy,1995, vol.103,NO.3.
[117]Rasmus Rufer and Vivio Stracca, "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter? "EBC, Working Paper Series, No 696. Nov 2006. p7.
[118]Rasmus Ruffer, What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter? European central bank,Working paper series, November 2006.
[119]Sebastian Becker, "Global Liquidity "glut" and Asset Price Inflation, Deutsche Bank Research", May 2007, p4.
[120]Robert Triffin, Gold and the Dollar Crisis, New Haven:Yale University Press, 1960.
[121]Michael P. Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau, and Peter Garber, "The Revived Bretton Woods System", International Journal of Finance & Economics, Sept.2004.
[122]Ronald McKinnon, "The International Dollar Standard and the Sustainability of the US Current Account Deficit", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Oct.2001.
[123]-"The Transfer Problem in Reducing the US Current Account Deficit", Journal of Policy Modeling,2007,29(5).
[124]--"Trapped by the International Dollar Standard", Journal of Policy Modeling, 2005,27 (4).
[125]Robert A. Mundell, "Dollar Standards in the Dollar Era", Journal of Policy Modeling,2007, vol.29, issue 5.
[126]Bruce Greenwald and Joseph E. Stiglitz, A Modest Proposal for International Monetary Reform, International Economic Association Meeting, Istanbul, Jun.2008.
[127]Kraay, A., Household Saving in China, World Bank Economic Review, Vol.14, No.3 pp 545-570, September 2000.
[128]Modigliani, F. and Cao, Shi Larry, The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis, Journal of Economic Literature Vol.42, No.1, pp 145-170, March 2004.
[129]Campbell, J. Y. and Shiller, R.J., Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models, Journal of Political Economy,1987.
[130]atalina M. Bianco. The Subprime Lending Crisis:Causes and Effects of the Mortgage Meltdown[C]. CCH,2008.
[131]Banerjee, A.V., Sesley. Timothy, Guinnane, Timothy W. The Neighbor's keeper: the decision of a credit cooperative with theory and a test [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994.
[132]Berger.A.N, Undell.GF. The economics of small business finance:The roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle [J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,1998,22.
[133]Bernard S Black, Ronald J Gilson. Venture capital and structure of capital market: banks versus stock market [J]. Journal of Financial Economics,1998,47.
[134]Cerra,V. and Saxena,S.C. How Responsive Is Chinese Export Supply to Market Signals? [J]China Economic Review.2003,14,pp350-370.
[135]Dees,S. The Real Exchange Rate and Types of Trade-Heterogeneity of Trade Behaviours in China[R/OL].Paper presented at the Workshop on China's Economy Organized by the CEPII in December 2001.
[136]Dellmo,Hans,"Relationships between Swedish Producer and Import Prices and the CPI"Sveriges Riks bank Working Paper No.29.1996.
[137]Demsetz, Lehn, K. The Structure of Corporate Ownership:Causes and Consequences [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1985,93.
[138]Dev Strichek. How to Determine the Value of A Firm [J]. Management Accounting, 1983.
[139]Diamond.D. Financial intermediation and delegated monitoring[C]. Review of Economic Studies,1984, Vol.51.
[140]Eckaus,R.S. Should China Appreciate the Yuan[R/OL]. MIT Working Paper.2004, 04-16.
[141]Engel R.F,and C.W.J Granger,Co-integration and Error Correction:Representation, Estimation and Testing[J].Econometrica.1987(35),pp251-252
[142]Feinberg Robert, The Effects of Foreign Exchange Movements on U.S Domestic Prices, The Review of Economics and Statistics,Vol.71,No.3.1989,pp 505-511.
[143]Feinberg Robert, The Interaction of Foreign Exchange and Market Power Effects on German Domestic Prices, The Journal of Industrial Economics Vol.35,No 1.1986,pp61-70.
[144]Garcia-Herrero, Alicia, Tuuli Koivu. Can the Chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?[R/OL].BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, BOFIT, Institute for Economies in Transition.
[145]Granger C. Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods [J].Econometrica.l969,37, pp424-438.
[146]Hsiao. Autoregressive Modeling and Money-Income Causality Detection [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics.1981,7,pp.85-106.
[147]Jin, Z. The Dynamics of Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments in China:1980-2002[R/OL].IMF Working Paper.2003,03/67.
[148]Jonathan McCarthy,"Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Important Prices to Domestic Inflation in some Industrialized Economies", BIS Working Paper,No.79.1999.
[149]Kamada,K.and Takagawa,I.Policy Coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific[R/OL].Bank of Japan Working Paper.2005,No.05-E-4.
[150]Kim,Ki-Ho,"Us Inflation and the Dollar Exchange Rate:A Vector Error Correction Model". Applied Economics, Vol.30.1998,pp 613-619.
[151]Krugman and Baldwin. The Persistence of the US Trade Deficit[J]. Bookings Papers on Economic Activity,1987.
[152]Lau,F.,Mo,Y.and Li,K. The Impact of a Renminbi Appreciation on Global Imbalances and Intra-Regional Trade[R/OL].Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin. March 2004,pp.16-26.
[153]Leith J.Clark, The Exchange Rate and the Price Level in a Small Open Economy: Journal of PolicyModeling,13(2).1991,pp.309-315.
[154]Marquez,J.and Schindler,J.W. Exchange-Rate Effects on China's Trade:An Interim Report[R/OL].Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. International Finance Discussion Papers.2006,No.861.
[155]Maurice Obstfeld. Exchange Rate and Adjustment:Perspectives from the New open economy Macroeconomics [J]. Monetary and Economic Studies (Special Edition), 2002.
[156]Ross Robertson. The Small Business Ethic America [M]. Washington D.C.:Small Business Administration,1973.
[157]Ross Levine. Financial development and economic growth:views and agenda[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,1997.
[158]Shu C. and Yip,R. Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on the Chinese Economy[R/OL].Hong Kong Monetary Authority.No.3/06,July 2006.
[159]Strahan Philip E., Weston, James P. Small business lending and changing structure of the banking industry [J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,1998,22.
[160]Susan Pozom. Conditional Exchange-Rate Volatility and the Volume of International Trade:Evidence from the Early 1900s[C]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1992(2), Vol.74.
[161]Udo Broll, Bernhard Eckwert. Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade[J]. Southern Economic Journal, Jul,1999(1), Vol.66.
[162]Unzo Watada, Song Wen. Exposure Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate in Business [J].IEEE Computer Society,2008.
[163]Williamson, John., The Crawling Peg, Princeton Essays in International Finance, 1965.
[164]Williamson, John, The Exchange Rate System, Washington:Institute for International Economics,1985.
[165]Woo Wing,Hooper Peter Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nonfood, Nonfuel Products, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Vol.1984, No.2,1984, pp.511-536.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |