环境规制对中国国际竞争力的影响效应
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摘要
环境与国际竞争力的关系源于国际贸易是经济增长的发动机,经济增长与环境污染与资源消耗之间存在密切联系。随着专业化生产和国际分工的发展,各国以比较优势进行对外贸易成为现实,从而推动全球经济和各国GDP的迅猛增长。但随之而来的是生态环境的恶化,环境问题成为世界性经济发展的难点问题。特别是,随着全球变暖问题受到广泛关注以及全球环境资源压力的不断增加,环境规制政策与国际竞争力的关系越来越深地嵌入人们的视野。
当前国际社会逐步意识到治理环境污染的迫切性,世界各国纷纷提高自己的环境规制水平。但各国环境禀赋、经济发展阶段及经济结构存在较大差异,难以形成统一的环境保护标准。环境规制标准差异导致各国比较利益和国际分工的差异,从而成为影响国际竞争力的重要因素。
中国正处于经济高速发展时期,对外贸易规模迅速扩大,尤其是入世后贸易自由化程度进一步提高,目前中国已经成为世界第一大贸易国。与此同时,外商直接投资也在迅猛发展,已成为全球第一大外商投资目的地。高速增长的对外贸易与直接投资极大推动了中国经济的发展。但粗放式的贸易增长方式与不加选择的外资引进对环境质量造成巨大破坏,环境问题在中国日益突出。大气污染、水污染、垃圾污染、土地沙化、水土流失等种种环境问题成为中国经济发展的桎梏。因此,近些年来,中国政府顺应国际趋势,不断加强环境规制的力度。
未来一段时间,中国面临的国际经济形势依然是复杂和严峻的。由于全球经济增长动力不足,未来国际市场需求依然低迷,外资企业投资动力也在持续下降。随着人民币实际有效汇率的不断升值,中国各出口产业竞争力都将受到严峻考验。同时,各国为抢夺国际市场、提高本国产业竞争力,将更加频繁的将环境保护作为采取非关税壁垒的借口。那么,如何制定适合中国经济社会发展阶段的环境规制政策,即保证环境质量和资源保护,又不降低甚至提高国际竞争力,确保经济长期可持续发展将是目前亟需解决的问题。
环境规制与国际竞争力是一对相互联系、相互依存的矛盾体,国内、国外环境规制水平对一国比较优势、技术进步以及直接投资都产生重大影响,进而影响到一国的产业结构、贸易结构和经济发展水平。那么,国内、国外环境规制水平的变动到底对中国国际竞争产生何种影响,其影响机制又如何,本文将从三个层面展开详细分析：
首先,对贸易竞争力的影响方面,通过对相关文献的梳理发现,在理论研究层面,环境规制对贸易竞争力的影响一直存在传统学派和修正学派的争论；而在实证研究层面,也一直没有定论。究其原因,有方法方面的争论问题,也有数据方面的问题。本文通过构建一个包含环境规制的拓展引力模型,研究发现两国双边贸易量受到两国国内生产总值、多边抗阻、进口国环境规制水平、出口国环境规制水平等因素的影响。进而,本文采用2006-2011年中国与27个贸易伙伴国面板数据,基于改进的引力模型实证检验环境规制对中国贸易竞争力的影响,并得出结论：国内环境规制政策对我国贸易竞争力产生成本效应,国外环境规制政策对我国贸易竞争力产生波特效应,综合影响为正,随着环境规制水平的提升我国制造业和污染产业的贸易竞争力趋于上升,其结果符合合理的理论预期。
其次,对技术竞争力影响方面,现有文献在理论研究层面基本上持肯定态度,即：环境规制会促进技术；但在实证领域并没取得一致的结论,同时缺乏对影响机制的研究,尤其是对中国技术进步影响机理的研究。本文以Ambec和Barla(2002)构造的委托-代理模型为基础,研究发现在满足一定条件下,环境规制可同时提高研发投资和企业期望收益。进而,本文基于1999-2011年中国省际面板数据,构建动态面板模型,运用系统矩估计方法对中国环境规制政策对技术效率的影响机制进行实证分析,结果发现中国环境规制对技术进步的效应呈现先下降后上升的趋势,环境规制下的技术进步与地区经济发展呈现倒U型关系,这符合环境库茨涅兹曲线的理论思想,当地区经济发展达到一定高度时,污染产业比重下降,此时增强环境规制对技术进步的作用逐渐减弱；中国环境规制刺激下的技术进步主要通过技术引进方式实现,这主要因为中国承接发达国家的产业转移皆属于环境技术不高的产业。
再次,对吸引外资竞争力方面,现有文献通常认为环境规制水平低可以成为吸引国外直接投资的诱因。本文认为环境规制水平绝对低并不是导致国际直接投资的主要原因,成长于不同制度环境的企业形成基于不同默会知识的组织程序,改变组织程序导致企业成本提高,因此,制度差异是影响企业跨国扩张策略选择的主要因素。鉴于此,本文基于制度差异的视角就环境规制对中国吸引外资竞争力进行研究,采用logit模型对2003-2011年113个国家对中国直接投资面板数据的实证分析发现,环境规制差异、民主程度差异和政策稳定性差异与直接投资发生概率成负向关系。正因为如此,环境规制水平较低的中国吸引的国外直接投资企业也主要来自环境规制水平相对较低的国家或污染密集型产业,造成中国成为‘污染避难所”的假象。
最后,在总结上述研究结论的基础上,根据国内、国外环境规制对中国贸易、技术和引资竞争力影响的机制及传导机理,结合中国实际,从环境政策、外贸政策和产业政策层面提出中国环境与经济协调发展政策建议。
Relationship between environment and international competitiveness stems from that international trade is an engine of economic growth and there is a close link between economic growth and environmental pollution and resource consumption. With the development of specialized production and the international division of labor, it has become reality for countries to trade based comparative advantages, so as to promote the rapid growth of the global economy and national GDP. However, the ensuing deterioration of ecological environment, environmental issues became worldwide difficult problems in economic development. In particular, with widespread concern about global warming and the increasing pressures of global environmental resources, the relationship between environmental regulation policy and international competitiveness increasingly deeply embedded in people's vision.
International community gradually realized the urgency of environmental pollution, so countries around the world improved their level of environmental regulation. But there are differences in production levels, environmental preferences and environmental self-purification ability among countries, so different environmental issues in different countries exhibited varying degrees of importance, and environmental regulatory standards among countries, especially between developed and developing countries is difficult to coordinate. The differences of environmental regulation standards lead to differences in comparative advantage and international division of labor, thus becoming an important factor of international competitiveness.
China is in a period of rapid economic development and foreign trade has expanded rapidly, especially after entering the WTO enhancing the degree of trade liberalization. China has.become the world's second-largest trading nation. At the same time, foreign directly investment also developed rapidly and China has become the world's largest foreign investment destination. Foreign trade and direct investment has greatly promoted the rapid growth of the Chinese economy. But extensive foreign trade growth mode and indiscriminately absorbing foreign capital cause great damage to the environment. The environmental issues have become increasingly prominent in China. Air pollution, water pollution, waste pollution, desertification, soil erosion and other environmental problems become shackles of China's economic development. Thus, in recent years, Chinese government complies with the international trend, and continues to strengthen environmental regulation efforts.
The next period of time, the international economic situation faced to China is still complex and grim. Due to lacking of motivation to grow in global economic, the future international market demand remains in the doldrums and the foreign investment momentum continues to decline. With the continuous appreciation of the RMB real effective exchange rate, the competitiveness of Chinese exporting industries will be subject to a severe test. Meanwhile, more and more countries will use environmental protection as a pretext to take non-tariff barriers in order to improve the competitiveness of domestic industries and snatch the international market. So, how to formulate Chinese environmental regulations fitting for this stage of economic and social development to ensure the quality of the environment and resources protection, without reducing or even improve their international competitiveness and ensure long-term sustainable economic development will be be the problem needed to be solved currently. Environmental regulation and international competitiveness is a pair of interrelated and interdependent contradiction. Domestic and foreign environmental regulation level have a significant impact on a country's comparative advantage, technological advances and direct investments, thereby affecting the industrial structure, trade structure and level of economic development of a country. So, how the changes of the domestic and foreign environmental regulation level impact Chinese international competition and what is the influencing mechanism, which will be analyzed in detail from three levels in this paper:
Firstly, in the respect of the impact on trade competitiveness, through combing the relevant literature, we found that theoretical study about the impact of environmental regulation on trade competitiveness has been debate between traditional school and amendment of school, and there is not conclusive in the empirical research. The reasons are not only about the methodological, but also the data. This paper builded a expanded gravity model including environmental regulation and found that the bilateral trade volume was affected by the GDP of the two countries, multilateral resistance, the regulation of the import country and the export country. Then this paper used the2006-2011panel data of China and its27trading partners, based on the improved gravity model to do the empirical study and draw a conclusion:Domestic environmental regulation has cost-effective on China's trade competitiveness; While foreign environmental regulation has Porter-effective on it. The combined impact is positive. China's trade competitiveness of manufacturing industry and pollution industry tends to rise following the environmental regulation enhancing, which are in accord with reasonable theoretical expectation.
Secondly, in the respect of the impact of technological competitiveness, the existing literature on the theoretical study of environmental regulation to promote technological progress identify with positive attitude, but did not get the unanimous conclusion in the empirical field, while lacking of the research on the influencing mechanism, especially on the influencing mechanism of China's technological progress. According to Ambec and Barla (2002), this paper builded a entrust-agent model and found that environmental regulation can increase R&D investment and expected revenue of the enterprises simultaneoustly while meeting some certain conditions. Then, based on1999-2011provincial panel data of China, this paper builds a dynamic panel model and uses the SYS-GMM to analysis the impact mechanism of environmental regulation of China on the technological efficiency and finds that the effects of China environmental regulation on technological progress presents the first after rising downward trend; the relationship between the technical progress stimulated by the environmental regulation and economic development exhibits an inverted U-shape, which is accord with the theory of environmental Kuznets curve. When regional economic development reaches some level, the ratio of dirty industry decreased and at that time the function of enhancing environmental regulation to technical progress becomes weak little by little; The technical progress stimulated by environmental regulation achieved mainly through the technology import, which is because that the industries carried by China from foreign countries are all the industries which has older environmental technology.
Thirdly, in the respect of competitiveness in attracting foreign investment, the existing literature generally considered that the low level of environmental regulation can become incentives to attract foreign direct investment.This paper argued that the absolute loose environmental regulation was not the main cause of the FDI. Growing up in the different institutional environmental, enterprises build different organization routines based on the tacit knowledge. Changing the organization routines leads to a high cost. So, the institution distance is the main cause to affect the enterprises' strategy of the international expansion. Using logit model and panel data about113countries directly investing in China in2003-2011, this paper empirically testified and found that the intercountry distance of the environmental regulation, the degree of democracy and the policy stability have the negative relationship with the FDI. Because of these, China which has the loose environmental regulation attracted the FDI all from the countries which has also loose environmental regulation or from the pollution intensive industry, which causes the false appearance that China is the " Pollution Shelter"
Finally, based on the conclusion of the above study, and on the influencing mechanisms and conduction mechanism of domestic and foreign environmental regulations on Chinese competitiveness about trade, technology and absorbing foreign investment, combined with China's reality, this paper propose the coordinately development policy between environment and economy from the environmental policy, foreign trade policy and industrial policy.
当前国际社会逐步意识到治理环境污染的迫切性,世界各国纷纷提高自己的环境规制水平。但各国环境禀赋、经济发展阶段及经济结构存在较大差异,难以形成统一的环境保护标准。环境规制标准差异导致各国比较利益和国际分工的差异,从而成为影响国际竞争力的重要因素。
中国正处于经济高速发展时期,对外贸易规模迅速扩大,尤其是入世后贸易自由化程度进一步提高,目前中国已经成为世界第一大贸易国。与此同时,外商直接投资也在迅猛发展,已成为全球第一大外商投资目的地。高速增长的对外贸易与直接投资极大推动了中国经济的发展。但粗放式的贸易增长方式与不加选择的外资引进对环境质量造成巨大破坏,环境问题在中国日益突出。大气污染、水污染、垃圾污染、土地沙化、水土流失等种种环境问题成为中国经济发展的桎梏。因此,近些年来,中国政府顺应国际趋势,不断加强环境规制的力度。
未来一段时间,中国面临的国际经济形势依然是复杂和严峻的。由于全球经济增长动力不足,未来国际市场需求依然低迷,外资企业投资动力也在持续下降。随着人民币实际有效汇率的不断升值,中国各出口产业竞争力都将受到严峻考验。同时,各国为抢夺国际市场、提高本国产业竞争力,将更加频繁的将环境保护作为采取非关税壁垒的借口。那么,如何制定适合中国经济社会发展阶段的环境规制政策,即保证环境质量和资源保护,又不降低甚至提高国际竞争力,确保经济长期可持续发展将是目前亟需解决的问题。
环境规制与国际竞争力是一对相互联系、相互依存的矛盾体,国内、国外环境规制水平对一国比较优势、技术进步以及直接投资都产生重大影响,进而影响到一国的产业结构、贸易结构和经济发展水平。那么,国内、国外环境规制水平的变动到底对中国国际竞争产生何种影响,其影响机制又如何,本文将从三个层面展开详细分析：
首先,对贸易竞争力的影响方面,通过对相关文献的梳理发现,在理论研究层面,环境规制对贸易竞争力的影响一直存在传统学派和修正学派的争论；而在实证研究层面,也一直没有定论。究其原因,有方法方面的争论问题,也有数据方面的问题。本文通过构建一个包含环境规制的拓展引力模型,研究发现两国双边贸易量受到两国国内生产总值、多边抗阻、进口国环境规制水平、出口国环境规制水平等因素的影响。进而,本文采用2006-2011年中国与27个贸易伙伴国面板数据,基于改进的引力模型实证检验环境规制对中国贸易竞争力的影响,并得出结论：国内环境规制政策对我国贸易竞争力产生成本效应,国外环境规制政策对我国贸易竞争力产生波特效应,综合影响为正,随着环境规制水平的提升我国制造业和污染产业的贸易竞争力趋于上升,其结果符合合理的理论预期。
其次,对技术竞争力影响方面,现有文献在理论研究层面基本上持肯定态度,即：环境规制会促进技术；但在实证领域并没取得一致的结论,同时缺乏对影响机制的研究,尤其是对中国技术进步影响机理的研究。本文以Ambec和Barla(2002)构造的委托-代理模型为基础,研究发现在满足一定条件下,环境规制可同时提高研发投资和企业期望收益。进而,本文基于1999-2011年中国省际面板数据,构建动态面板模型,运用系统矩估计方法对中国环境规制政策对技术效率的影响机制进行实证分析,结果发现中国环境规制对技术进步的效应呈现先下降后上升的趋势,环境规制下的技术进步与地区经济发展呈现倒U型关系,这符合环境库茨涅兹曲线的理论思想,当地区经济发展达到一定高度时,污染产业比重下降,此时增强环境规制对技术进步的作用逐渐减弱；中国环境规制刺激下的技术进步主要通过技术引进方式实现,这主要因为中国承接发达国家的产业转移皆属于环境技术不高的产业。
再次,对吸引外资竞争力方面,现有文献通常认为环境规制水平低可以成为吸引国外直接投资的诱因。本文认为环境规制水平绝对低并不是导致国际直接投资的主要原因,成长于不同制度环境的企业形成基于不同默会知识的组织程序,改变组织程序导致企业成本提高,因此,制度差异是影响企业跨国扩张策略选择的主要因素。鉴于此,本文基于制度差异的视角就环境规制对中国吸引外资竞争力进行研究,采用logit模型对2003-2011年113个国家对中国直接投资面板数据的实证分析发现,环境规制差异、民主程度差异和政策稳定性差异与直接投资发生概率成负向关系。正因为如此,环境规制水平较低的中国吸引的国外直接投资企业也主要来自环境规制水平相对较低的国家或污染密集型产业,造成中国成为‘污染避难所”的假象。
最后,在总结上述研究结论的基础上,根据国内、国外环境规制对中国贸易、技术和引资竞争力影响的机制及传导机理,结合中国实际,从环境政策、外贸政策和产业政策层面提出中国环境与经济协调发展政策建议。
Relationship between environment and international competitiveness stems from that international trade is an engine of economic growth and there is a close link between economic growth and environmental pollution and resource consumption. With the development of specialized production and the international division of labor, it has become reality for countries to trade based comparative advantages, so as to promote the rapid growth of the global economy and national GDP. However, the ensuing deterioration of ecological environment, environmental issues became worldwide difficult problems in economic development. In particular, with widespread concern about global warming and the increasing pressures of global environmental resources, the relationship between environmental regulation policy and international competitiveness increasingly deeply embedded in people's vision.
International community gradually realized the urgency of environmental pollution, so countries around the world improved their level of environmental regulation. But there are differences in production levels, environmental preferences and environmental self-purification ability among countries, so different environmental issues in different countries exhibited varying degrees of importance, and environmental regulatory standards among countries, especially between developed and developing countries is difficult to coordinate. The differences of environmental regulation standards lead to differences in comparative advantage and international division of labor, thus becoming an important factor of international competitiveness.
China is in a period of rapid economic development and foreign trade has expanded rapidly, especially after entering the WTO enhancing the degree of trade liberalization. China has.become the world's second-largest trading nation. At the same time, foreign directly investment also developed rapidly and China has become the world's largest foreign investment destination. Foreign trade and direct investment has greatly promoted the rapid growth of the Chinese economy. But extensive foreign trade growth mode and indiscriminately absorbing foreign capital cause great damage to the environment. The environmental issues have become increasingly prominent in China. Air pollution, water pollution, waste pollution, desertification, soil erosion and other environmental problems become shackles of China's economic development. Thus, in recent years, Chinese government complies with the international trend, and continues to strengthen environmental regulation efforts.
The next period of time, the international economic situation faced to China is still complex and grim. Due to lacking of motivation to grow in global economic, the future international market demand remains in the doldrums and the foreign investment momentum continues to decline. With the continuous appreciation of the RMB real effective exchange rate, the competitiveness of Chinese exporting industries will be subject to a severe test. Meanwhile, more and more countries will use environmental protection as a pretext to take non-tariff barriers in order to improve the competitiveness of domestic industries and snatch the international market. So, how to formulate Chinese environmental regulations fitting for this stage of economic and social development to ensure the quality of the environment and resources protection, without reducing or even improve their international competitiveness and ensure long-term sustainable economic development will be be the problem needed to be solved currently. Environmental regulation and international competitiveness is a pair of interrelated and interdependent contradiction. Domestic and foreign environmental regulation level have a significant impact on a country's comparative advantage, technological advances and direct investments, thereby affecting the industrial structure, trade structure and level of economic development of a country. So, how the changes of the domestic and foreign environmental regulation level impact Chinese international competition and what is the influencing mechanism, which will be analyzed in detail from three levels in this paper:
Firstly, in the respect of the impact on trade competitiveness, through combing the relevant literature, we found that theoretical study about the impact of environmental regulation on trade competitiveness has been debate between traditional school and amendment of school, and there is not conclusive in the empirical research. The reasons are not only about the methodological, but also the data. This paper builded a expanded gravity model including environmental regulation and found that the bilateral trade volume was affected by the GDP of the two countries, multilateral resistance, the regulation of the import country and the export country. Then this paper used the2006-2011panel data of China and its27trading partners, based on the improved gravity model to do the empirical study and draw a conclusion:Domestic environmental regulation has cost-effective on China's trade competitiveness; While foreign environmental regulation has Porter-effective on it. The combined impact is positive. China's trade competitiveness of manufacturing industry and pollution industry tends to rise following the environmental regulation enhancing, which are in accord with reasonable theoretical expectation.
Secondly, in the respect of the impact of technological competitiveness, the existing literature on the theoretical study of environmental regulation to promote technological progress identify with positive attitude, but did not get the unanimous conclusion in the empirical field, while lacking of the research on the influencing mechanism, especially on the influencing mechanism of China's technological progress. According to Ambec and Barla (2002), this paper builded a entrust-agent model and found that environmental regulation can increase R&D investment and expected revenue of the enterprises simultaneoustly while meeting some certain conditions. Then, based on1999-2011provincial panel data of China, this paper builds a dynamic panel model and uses the SYS-GMM to analysis the impact mechanism of environmental regulation of China on the technological efficiency and finds that the effects of China environmental regulation on technological progress presents the first after rising downward trend; the relationship between the technical progress stimulated by the environmental regulation and economic development exhibits an inverted U-shape, which is accord with the theory of environmental Kuznets curve. When regional economic development reaches some level, the ratio of dirty industry decreased and at that time the function of enhancing environmental regulation to technical progress becomes weak little by little; The technical progress stimulated by environmental regulation achieved mainly through the technology import, which is because that the industries carried by China from foreign countries are all the industries which has older environmental technology.
Thirdly, in the respect of competitiveness in attracting foreign investment, the existing literature generally considered that the low level of environmental regulation can become incentives to attract foreign direct investment.This paper argued that the absolute loose environmental regulation was not the main cause of the FDI. Growing up in the different institutional environmental, enterprises build different organization routines based on the tacit knowledge. Changing the organization routines leads to a high cost. So, the institution distance is the main cause to affect the enterprises' strategy of the international expansion. Using logit model and panel data about113countries directly investing in China in2003-2011, this paper empirically testified and found that the intercountry distance of the environmental regulation, the degree of democracy and the policy stability have the negative relationship with the FDI. Because of these, China which has the loose environmental regulation attracted the FDI all from the countries which has also loose environmental regulation or from the pollution intensive industry, which causes the false appearance that China is the " Pollution Shelter"
Finally, based on the conclusion of the above study, and on the influencing mechanisms and conduction mechanism of domestic and foreign environmental regulations on Chinese competitiveness about trade, technology and absorbing foreign investment, combined with China's reality, this paper propose the coordinately development policy between environment and economy from the environmental policy, foreign trade policy and industrial policy.
引文
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