危岩落石灾害危险性评价及防治决策方法研究
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摘要
本文从危岩的致灾概率及其造成的人员、经济损失出发,建立了危岩落石灾害危险性评价及防治决策方法。并运用该方法对万州菜地沟危岩进行实例分析。取得的主要成果如下:
(1)通过不同形状、不同质量的落石在不同坡形、不同坡表铺装的斜坡上滚动的模型试验发现,落石在其他条件相同的情况下水平运动距离随初速的增加呈增加趋势;除长条形落石外,其他形状落石在上陡下缓坡上的水平运动距离最大,台阶坡次之,上缓下陡坡最小;在台阶坡的台阶上设置缓冲层可减小落石的水平运动距离;不同形状落石的运动能力依次是球形大于圆柱形大于方形,长条形最小;方形、球形落石随质量的增加其水平运动距离也增加。就偏移比来说,各因素对其影响没有明显规律可循,但就其数值来说均在0.5范围之内,在0.4范围内的占96.7%,在0.3范围内的占89.3%,在0.2范围内的占72.2%,38.9%在0.1范围内。
(2)在综合分析现有危岩崩落可能性、崩落后到达威胁对象区域可能性的定性、定量评价方法的基础上,将这些定性、定量描述转换为相应的危岩崩落概率与崩落后到达威胁对象区域的概率并提出了量化算法。
(3)根据单体危岩致灾特点,结合单体危岩威胁区域预测方法,分析承灾体的易损性,提出从人员死亡与经济损失两个方面评价单体危岩崩落后致灾后果严重性的方法。
(4)在国内外关于大坝、滑坡等风险管理中的可接受风险研究的基础上,结合落石灾害自身的特点,给出了落石灾害经济及生命风险建议值。
(5)以重庆万州菜地沟危岩为例,探讨了危岩落石灾害危险性评价及防治决策方法的应用,可解决实际工程中落石灾害评价及防治决策问题。
In this paper,a risk assessment and mitigation decision-making method of rockfall is established starting from rockfall hazard probability and it will cause people and economic losses. And an example for Caidigou perilous rock Wanzhou is analyzed by using the method.The main results in this paper are as follows:
(1) Through different shapes, different quality rockfall model experiments on different slope shape, different slope surface slopes showed that the horizontal movement distance of rockfall in the other conditions are the same increased with the initial velocity increasing; except cuboid rockfall,the horizontal movement distance of the other shape rockfall on the above steep below slow slope is the maximum, the second is on the step slope, and the minimum is on the above slow below steep slope; setting buffer layer on the steps of step slope can reduce the horizontal movement distance of rockfall; the motor ability of different shapes rockfall is sphere is greater than cylindrical than spherical square,and the cuboid is the minimum; the horizontal movement distance of cube and sphere rockfall increased with the mass increasing. In the case of Offset Ratio, there are no obvious rules to follow, but its value is all in the 0.5 range, in the 0.4 range is 96.7%, in the 0.3 range is 89.3%, within the 0.2 and accounted for 72.2% and 38.9% in the 0.1 range.
(2) Based on comprehensive analysis existing qualitative and quantitative method to assessment the possibility of perilous rock instability and it arrival endangering area, change these qualitative and quantitative description to the possibility of perilous rock instability and it arrival endangering area, and a quantitative computational method is introduced.
(3) According to the hazard characteristics of single perilous rock, combined with endangering area forecasting of single perilous rock, analysis of the vulnerability of disaster bodies, raised the death and economic loss from the two sides after the avalanche hazard evaluation of single boulders the seriousness of the consequences of the method.
(4) Based on acceptable risk of the dam and landslide risk management at home and abroad, combined with rockfall hazard’s characteristics,gives recommended values of risk of economic and life.
(5) Tkae Caidigou perilous rock Wanzhou Chongqing city for example, research into how to use this method, solve practical engineering rockfall hazard assessment and control of decision-making.
(1)通过不同形状、不同质量的落石在不同坡形、不同坡表铺装的斜坡上滚动的模型试验发现,落石在其他条件相同的情况下水平运动距离随初速的增加呈增加趋势;除长条形落石外,其他形状落石在上陡下缓坡上的水平运动距离最大,台阶坡次之,上缓下陡坡最小;在台阶坡的台阶上设置缓冲层可减小落石的水平运动距离;不同形状落石的运动能力依次是球形大于圆柱形大于方形,长条形最小;方形、球形落石随质量的增加其水平运动距离也增加。就偏移比来说,各因素对其影响没有明显规律可循,但就其数值来说均在0.5范围之内,在0.4范围内的占96.7%,在0.3范围内的占89.3%,在0.2范围内的占72.2%,38.9%在0.1范围内。
(2)在综合分析现有危岩崩落可能性、崩落后到达威胁对象区域可能性的定性、定量评价方法的基础上,将这些定性、定量描述转换为相应的危岩崩落概率与崩落后到达威胁对象区域的概率并提出了量化算法。
(3)根据单体危岩致灾特点,结合单体危岩威胁区域预测方法,分析承灾体的易损性,提出从人员死亡与经济损失两个方面评价单体危岩崩落后致灾后果严重性的方法。
(4)在国内外关于大坝、滑坡等风险管理中的可接受风险研究的基础上,结合落石灾害自身的特点,给出了落石灾害经济及生命风险建议值。
(5)以重庆万州菜地沟危岩为例,探讨了危岩落石灾害危险性评价及防治决策方法的应用,可解决实际工程中落石灾害评价及防治决策问题。
In this paper,a risk assessment and mitigation decision-making method of rockfall is established starting from rockfall hazard probability and it will cause people and economic losses. And an example for Caidigou perilous rock Wanzhou is analyzed by using the method.The main results in this paper are as follows:
(1) Through different shapes, different quality rockfall model experiments on different slope shape, different slope surface slopes showed that the horizontal movement distance of rockfall in the other conditions are the same increased with the initial velocity increasing; except cuboid rockfall,the horizontal movement distance of the other shape rockfall on the above steep below slow slope is the maximum, the second is on the step slope, and the minimum is on the above slow below steep slope; setting buffer layer on the steps of step slope can reduce the horizontal movement distance of rockfall; the motor ability of different shapes rockfall is sphere is greater than cylindrical than spherical square,and the cuboid is the minimum; the horizontal movement distance of cube and sphere rockfall increased with the mass increasing. In the case of Offset Ratio, there are no obvious rules to follow, but its value is all in the 0.5 range, in the 0.4 range is 96.7%, in the 0.3 range is 89.3%, within the 0.2 and accounted for 72.2% and 38.9% in the 0.1 range.
(2) Based on comprehensive analysis existing qualitative and quantitative method to assessment the possibility of perilous rock instability and it arrival endangering area, change these qualitative and quantitative description to the possibility of perilous rock instability and it arrival endangering area, and a quantitative computational method is introduced.
(3) According to the hazard characteristics of single perilous rock, combined with endangering area forecasting of single perilous rock, analysis of the vulnerability of disaster bodies, raised the death and economic loss from the two sides after the avalanche hazard evaluation of single boulders the seriousness of the consequences of the method.
(4) Based on acceptable risk of the dam and landslide risk management at home and abroad, combined with rockfall hazard’s characteristics,gives recommended values of risk of economic and life.
(5) Tkae Caidigou perilous rock Wanzhou Chongqing city for example, research into how to use this method, solve practical engineering rockfall hazard assessment and control of decision-making.
引文
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