基于外部性理论的LNG储运中心选址模型与算法研究
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摘要
液化天然气(Liquefied Natural Gas,简称LNG)作为一种清洁、高效的绿色能源,国际市场应用已久,LNG贸易当前已成为全球能源市场的新热点。进入21世纪以来,我国国民经济持续快速发展,天然气需求逐年大幅增加,2015年国内天然气消费量有望达到2600亿立方米,在一次性能源消费中的比例达到8%左右。在我国,作为对管道天然气的有益补充,液化天然气产业的发展在转变国家能源结构、解决能源紧张问题、促进经济持续健康发展、实现节能减排和保护环境方面发挥着重要作用,是发展绿色低碳经济、实现科学发展的现实选择。
我国将迎来LNG储运中心建设高峰,但随之而来的储运中心潜在的安全风险和社会风险等问题也引起企业和社会的高度重视。一方面,LNG储运中心要防止由本身的危害性、储存工艺以及管道设备设施、人力和安全管理危险和环境危险等风险因素带来的潜在的泄漏、火灾和爆炸等事故危险,需对LNG选址进行定量风险分析,测算其安全风险成本,根据风险大小确定选址的合理性；另一方面,作为经济主体,在LNG储运中心选址建设规划中,企业要承担起由其生产经营带来的环境污染预防和生态治理恢复责任,将环境与资源费用计算到产品成本中去,实现环境成本外部不经济性的内部化。
鉴于此,笔者尝试着从外部性理论角度出发,将外部性成本纳入LNG储运中心选址模型,将定量风险评估引入LNG储运中心选址合理性评价,对LNG储运中心综合选址问题展开深入研究。本论文主要做了以下5个方面的研究工作：
(1)详细介绍了有关LNG储运中心选址的研究现状,重点介绍了LNG储运中心选址相关理论模型和评价方法,为后续章节内容的进一步研究奠下理论基础。运用协整理论、误差修正模型等动态计量方法揭示了LNG储运中心建设投资对经济增长的作用规律。针对目前国内对LNG未来需求预测多是由一些专业人士根据经验做一些主观判断分析,缺乏严格的理论和推导模型支撑的不足,笔者将灰色动态预测的思想引入LNG需求预测,构建灰色预测GM(1,1)模型进行分析,以期对我国LNG未来需求走势和波动有一个科学的把握。
(2)提出了LNG储运中心选址的影响因素包括投资运营成本和外部性成本,其中外部性成本包括安全风险成本与环境成本；识别了LNG储运中心的4个风险因素并进行了基于熵权灰关联理论的重要度分析；界定了LNG储运中心选址绿色影响度的概念,建立了LNG储运中心选址综合影响度评价指标体系,并将粗糙集理论引入评价体系,构建了LNG储运中心选址综合影响度评价模型,以期通过综合影响度来评价LNG储运中心选址的环境效益。通过模型计算得出：投资运营成本、安全风险成本和环境成本在LNG储运中心选址决策中对应的权重分别为0.6154、0.1620和0.2226,按指标权重加权,即可得到每个决策方案的综合影响度。
(3)详尽测算了LNG储运中心选址的外部性成本,提出将LNG储运中心安全风险成本的测算内部化为对LNG泄露扩散危害、火灾效应危害和爆炸效应危害三大事故危害后果计量,建立了基于内部化的LNG泄露扩散危害后果计量模型、LNG火灾效应危害后果计量模型和LNG爆炸效应危害后果计量模型,对LNG储运中心选址的安全风险成本测算进行了定量分析；分析了环境成本内部化的实现途径、计量步骤和计量方法,建立了基于内部化的LNG储运中心环境成本计量模型,对LNG储运中心选址的环境成本测算进行了定量分析。
(4)针对目前关于选址问题的理论或实践没有从社会可持续发展的角度考虑社会外部性成本的研究不足,笔者将外部性理论思想引入LNG储运中心选址问题中,提出了安全风险成本和环境成本量化测算的处理方法,兼顾考虑投资运营成本等变动因素,构建了基于外部性理论的LNG储运中心综合选址模型,并将DPSO算法运用于选址模型的求解。通过实证分析得出：在LNG储运中心选址中考虑外部性成本,并进行基于风险指数RI的定量风险评估,在一定程度上能够有效降低LNG储运中心选址活动的社会外部性和潜在危害性,提高社会福利。
(5)在本论文的研究基础上,笔者对研究中的不足和未来研究方向做了总结与展望。
本论文研究以期构建一个在投资运营成本和外部性成本达到一定平衡的基础上总成本最小化的LNG储运中心综合选址优化模型,实现LNG储运中心安全风险成本和环境成本最小化,为完善我国LNG产业链、推动LNG绿色发展,合理确定其他重大工程选址和周边布局调整、科学规划土地利用,提供了一种解决思路。
Liquefied Natural Gas, or LNG, as a kind of clean and efficient green energy, has a long-time history in the international, and LNG trade is becoming a new hot spot of global energy markets currently. Since the21th century, with the sustainable and rapid development of national economy, the demand of LNG has increased dramatically, covered around8%proportion in primary energy consumption, and the domestic consumption is expected to reach260billion cubic meters in2015. In China, as a great complement for pipeline gas, LNG makes significance in transformating national energy structure, solving energy shortage and promoting sustained and healthy economic development, energy conservation and emission reduction, and plays an important role to protect the environment. LNG industry is a realistic and feasible option for the development of low-carbon economy and contribution to scientific development.
China will usher in the peak of the LNG storage and transportation center construction, but the attendant security risks and social risks have also caused great attention of enterprises and society. On the one hand, LNG storage and transportation center must prevent potential risk caused by itself, for example, leakage, fire and explosion accidents, storage technology&pipeline facilities, manpower&security management, or environmental risk. Through quantitative risk analysis method, this paper estimates the security risk cost to make reasonable decision of LNG location. On the other hand, as the economic subject, enterprises have to undertake the responsibility of environmental pollution prevention and ecological restoration made by its production and operation in location and construction plan of the LNG storage and transportation center. In this paper, in order to achieve environmental internalization of external diseconomy, the author calculates environment&resources cost into product cost.
From the perspective of externality theory, the author makes in-depth study on LNG storage and transportation center comprehensive location through taking externality cost into the location model of LNG storage and transportation center introducing quantitative risk assessment into the evaluation of LNG storage and transportation center location rationality. In the whole, this paper has mainly made the following5researches:
(1) This paper introduces the research status of LNG storage and transportation center optional location in detail, and focus on the related theoretical models and evaluation methods of LNG storage and transportation center location, laying a theoretical foundation for further study in the following chapters. Using the dynamic measurement method, such as cointegration theory, error correction model, and so on, reveals the effect of the LNG storage and transportation center construction investment on economic growth. Aiming to problem of solving shortage of sufficient strict theory and model to support, for the current domestic LNG future demand forecast is made mostly by some professionals who do some subjective judgment analysis based on experience, this paper introduces the grey dynamic prediction method into LNG demand forecasting, building grey prediction GM (1,1) model to carry on the analysis, in order to make a scientific grasp for LNG future demand trend and fluctuation.
(2) This paper puts forward the influencing factors on location of LNG storage and transportation center including investment operation cost and externality cost, and external cost includes security risk cost and environmental cost. The author establishes importance analysis for4risk factors of LNG storage and transportation center based on entropy and grey association theory. What's more, the author defines the concept of green degree of LNG storage and transportation center site, establishes its green degree evaluation index system, and builds its green degree evaluation model by introducing rough set theory into evaluation system, which can evaluate the environment profit of LNG storage and transportation center location. The conclusions calculated through the model are the followings:investment&operating cost, security risk cost and environmental cost in the corresponding weights of LNG storage and transportation center location are0.6154,0.1620and0.2226respectively. Accordingly, weighting the index weight can get the green degree of each decision scheme.
(3) This paper detailed estimates the externality cost of LNG storage and transportation center location. On the one hand, the author puts forward the idea of estimating consequence caused by LNG leakage diffusion, fire and explosion when make security risk cost measurement for LNG storage and transportation center, and establishes hazard consequence econometric model of LNG leakage diffusion, fire and explosion based on the internalization, in order to make quantitative analysis on security risk measurement of LNG storage and transportation center location. On the other hand, the author defines the concept of LNG storage and transportation center environmental cost and scope, analyzes the implementation way, measurement procedure and method of the internalization of environmental cost, and establishes econometric model to measure environmental cost of LNG storage and transportation center based on internalization, which helps to make quantitative analysis on environmental cost measurement of LNG storage and transportation center.
(4) Aiming to the lack of theory or practice on the location, which from perspective of social sustainable development to consider its externalities, this paper introduces the basic idea of externalities into the LNG storage and transportation center location. From the perspective of externality theory, this paper proposes to handle security risks and environmental cost by approximate quantitative processing. With consideration of factors above and investment&operating cost, this paper builds a comprehensive location model for LNG storage and transportation center based on externality theory, then applys DPSO algorithm into solving the model. Through empirical analysis, the author makes the following conclusions:when taking externality cost into account in LNG storage and transportation center location, and making quantitative risk assessment based on risk index RI, in a certain extent, we can effectively reduce social externalities and potential hazards of LNG storage and transportation center location, and improve social welfare.
(5) This paper also makes additional conclusions and comes out some outlooks in respect to shortage and future direction based on the above research.
This paper aims at build a comprehensive optimization model of LNG storage and transportation center, which can minimizing the total cost on the basis of a certain balance between investment&operating cost and externality cost, to achieve the minimization between security risks cost and environmental cost; provide a thought for improving and promoting China's LNG storage and transportation center's green development, and determining reasonably the location, layout adjustment and scientific planning of land usage for other major project.
我国将迎来LNG储运中心建设高峰,但随之而来的储运中心潜在的安全风险和社会风险等问题也引起企业和社会的高度重视。一方面,LNG储运中心要防止由本身的危害性、储存工艺以及管道设备设施、人力和安全管理危险和环境危险等风险因素带来的潜在的泄漏、火灾和爆炸等事故危险,需对LNG选址进行定量风险分析,测算其安全风险成本,根据风险大小确定选址的合理性；另一方面,作为经济主体,在LNG储运中心选址建设规划中,企业要承担起由其生产经营带来的环境污染预防和生态治理恢复责任,将环境与资源费用计算到产品成本中去,实现环境成本外部不经济性的内部化。
鉴于此,笔者尝试着从外部性理论角度出发,将外部性成本纳入LNG储运中心选址模型,将定量风险评估引入LNG储运中心选址合理性评价,对LNG储运中心综合选址问题展开深入研究。本论文主要做了以下5个方面的研究工作：
(1)详细介绍了有关LNG储运中心选址的研究现状,重点介绍了LNG储运中心选址相关理论模型和评价方法,为后续章节内容的进一步研究奠下理论基础。运用协整理论、误差修正模型等动态计量方法揭示了LNG储运中心建设投资对经济增长的作用规律。针对目前国内对LNG未来需求预测多是由一些专业人士根据经验做一些主观判断分析,缺乏严格的理论和推导模型支撑的不足,笔者将灰色动态预测的思想引入LNG需求预测,构建灰色预测GM(1,1)模型进行分析,以期对我国LNG未来需求走势和波动有一个科学的把握。
(2)提出了LNG储运中心选址的影响因素包括投资运营成本和外部性成本,其中外部性成本包括安全风险成本与环境成本；识别了LNG储运中心的4个风险因素并进行了基于熵权灰关联理论的重要度分析；界定了LNG储运中心选址绿色影响度的概念,建立了LNG储运中心选址综合影响度评价指标体系,并将粗糙集理论引入评价体系,构建了LNG储运中心选址综合影响度评价模型,以期通过综合影响度来评价LNG储运中心选址的环境效益。通过模型计算得出：投资运营成本、安全风险成本和环境成本在LNG储运中心选址决策中对应的权重分别为0.6154、0.1620和0.2226,按指标权重加权,即可得到每个决策方案的综合影响度。
(3)详尽测算了LNG储运中心选址的外部性成本,提出将LNG储运中心安全风险成本的测算内部化为对LNG泄露扩散危害、火灾效应危害和爆炸效应危害三大事故危害后果计量,建立了基于内部化的LNG泄露扩散危害后果计量模型、LNG火灾效应危害后果计量模型和LNG爆炸效应危害后果计量模型,对LNG储运中心选址的安全风险成本测算进行了定量分析；分析了环境成本内部化的实现途径、计量步骤和计量方法,建立了基于内部化的LNG储运中心环境成本计量模型,对LNG储运中心选址的环境成本测算进行了定量分析。
(4)针对目前关于选址问题的理论或实践没有从社会可持续发展的角度考虑社会外部性成本的研究不足,笔者将外部性理论思想引入LNG储运中心选址问题中,提出了安全风险成本和环境成本量化测算的处理方法,兼顾考虑投资运营成本等变动因素,构建了基于外部性理论的LNG储运中心综合选址模型,并将DPSO算法运用于选址模型的求解。通过实证分析得出：在LNG储运中心选址中考虑外部性成本,并进行基于风险指数RI的定量风险评估,在一定程度上能够有效降低LNG储运中心选址活动的社会外部性和潜在危害性,提高社会福利。
(5)在本论文的研究基础上,笔者对研究中的不足和未来研究方向做了总结与展望。
本论文研究以期构建一个在投资运营成本和外部性成本达到一定平衡的基础上总成本最小化的LNG储运中心综合选址优化模型,实现LNG储运中心安全风险成本和环境成本最小化,为完善我国LNG产业链、推动LNG绿色发展,合理确定其他重大工程选址和周边布局调整、科学规划土地利用,提供了一种解决思路。
Liquefied Natural Gas, or LNG, as a kind of clean and efficient green energy, has a long-time history in the international, and LNG trade is becoming a new hot spot of global energy markets currently. Since the21th century, with the sustainable and rapid development of national economy, the demand of LNG has increased dramatically, covered around8%proportion in primary energy consumption, and the domestic consumption is expected to reach260billion cubic meters in2015. In China, as a great complement for pipeline gas, LNG makes significance in transformating national energy structure, solving energy shortage and promoting sustained and healthy economic development, energy conservation and emission reduction, and plays an important role to protect the environment. LNG industry is a realistic and feasible option for the development of low-carbon economy and contribution to scientific development.
China will usher in the peak of the LNG storage and transportation center construction, but the attendant security risks and social risks have also caused great attention of enterprises and society. On the one hand, LNG storage and transportation center must prevent potential risk caused by itself, for example, leakage, fire and explosion accidents, storage technology&pipeline facilities, manpower&security management, or environmental risk. Through quantitative risk analysis method, this paper estimates the security risk cost to make reasonable decision of LNG location. On the other hand, as the economic subject, enterprises have to undertake the responsibility of environmental pollution prevention and ecological restoration made by its production and operation in location and construction plan of the LNG storage and transportation center. In this paper, in order to achieve environmental internalization of external diseconomy, the author calculates environment&resources cost into product cost.
From the perspective of externality theory, the author makes in-depth study on LNG storage and transportation center comprehensive location through taking externality cost into the location model of LNG storage and transportation center introducing quantitative risk assessment into the evaluation of LNG storage and transportation center location rationality. In the whole, this paper has mainly made the following5researches:
(1) This paper introduces the research status of LNG storage and transportation center optional location in detail, and focus on the related theoretical models and evaluation methods of LNG storage and transportation center location, laying a theoretical foundation for further study in the following chapters. Using the dynamic measurement method, such as cointegration theory, error correction model, and so on, reveals the effect of the LNG storage and transportation center construction investment on economic growth. Aiming to problem of solving shortage of sufficient strict theory and model to support, for the current domestic LNG future demand forecast is made mostly by some professionals who do some subjective judgment analysis based on experience, this paper introduces the grey dynamic prediction method into LNG demand forecasting, building grey prediction GM (1,1) model to carry on the analysis, in order to make a scientific grasp for LNG future demand trend and fluctuation.
(2) This paper puts forward the influencing factors on location of LNG storage and transportation center including investment operation cost and externality cost, and external cost includes security risk cost and environmental cost. The author establishes importance analysis for4risk factors of LNG storage and transportation center based on entropy and grey association theory. What's more, the author defines the concept of green degree of LNG storage and transportation center site, establishes its green degree evaluation index system, and builds its green degree evaluation model by introducing rough set theory into evaluation system, which can evaluate the environment profit of LNG storage and transportation center location. The conclusions calculated through the model are the followings:investment&operating cost, security risk cost and environmental cost in the corresponding weights of LNG storage and transportation center location are0.6154,0.1620and0.2226respectively. Accordingly, weighting the index weight can get the green degree of each decision scheme.
(3) This paper detailed estimates the externality cost of LNG storage and transportation center location. On the one hand, the author puts forward the idea of estimating consequence caused by LNG leakage diffusion, fire and explosion when make security risk cost measurement for LNG storage and transportation center, and establishes hazard consequence econometric model of LNG leakage diffusion, fire and explosion based on the internalization, in order to make quantitative analysis on security risk measurement of LNG storage and transportation center location. On the other hand, the author defines the concept of LNG storage and transportation center environmental cost and scope, analyzes the implementation way, measurement procedure and method of the internalization of environmental cost, and establishes econometric model to measure environmental cost of LNG storage and transportation center based on internalization, which helps to make quantitative analysis on environmental cost measurement of LNG storage and transportation center.
(4) Aiming to the lack of theory or practice on the location, which from perspective of social sustainable development to consider its externalities, this paper introduces the basic idea of externalities into the LNG storage and transportation center location. From the perspective of externality theory, this paper proposes to handle security risks and environmental cost by approximate quantitative processing. With consideration of factors above and investment&operating cost, this paper builds a comprehensive location model for LNG storage and transportation center based on externality theory, then applys DPSO algorithm into solving the model. Through empirical analysis, the author makes the following conclusions:when taking externality cost into account in LNG storage and transportation center location, and making quantitative risk assessment based on risk index RI, in a certain extent, we can effectively reduce social externalities and potential hazards of LNG storage and transportation center location, and improve social welfare.
(5) This paper also makes additional conclusions and comes out some outlooks in respect to shortage and future direction based on the above research.
This paper aims at build a comprehensive optimization model of LNG storage and transportation center, which can minimizing the total cost on the basis of a certain balance between investment&operating cost and externality cost, to achieve the minimization between security risks cost and environmental cost; provide a thought for improving and promoting China's LNG storage and transportation center's green development, and determining reasonably the location, layout adjustment and scientific planning of land usage for other major project.
引文
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