基于生态城市的城市最优规模理论研究与实证分析
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摘要
目前，中国正处在城市化高速发展的时期，这意味着城市人口规模快速提高、城市空间规模大幅度扩张。城市规模的快速增长，一方面可以推动城市经济发展、提升城市的竞争力；另一方面，则产生了土地紧张、住房拥挤、交通堵塞、资源短缺、环境污染等城市问题。如何求出城市的最优规模，既能保证城市经济持续快速增长，又不出现种种城市病？如何使城市达到这个最优规模？是21世纪我国城镇化建设面临的重大课题。
在论文研究的过程中，借鉴了城市生态学、城市经济学以及相关社会科学等领域的已有研究成果，以系统论为基础解释方法，采用定性分析与定量分析相结合、归纳总结与演绎推理相结合、理论分析与实证分析相结合等方法，以城市化为背景，建构了基于生态城市理论分析的城市最优规模的研究框架。
通过对研究背景和生态城市理论和实践发展现状的分析，获得影响城市最优规模机理和规律的较为全面和深入的认识，提出从生态城市的角度研究城市最优规模的科学方法，建立基于生态城市的城市最优规模的求解模型，分析和评判城市规模现状的合理与否，进一步指导城市的发展。本文的研究成果对城市规模的引导和控制具有重要的指导意义，将为城市决策者提供一个科学依据。
本文首先回顾了国内外城市最优规模的理论研究和实证过程，揭示了传统研究方法的弊端：仅研究城市内部要素，没有考虑城市外部环境对城市最优规模的影响。首次从生态城市的角度，基于城市是一个生态系统，认为城市最优规模的大小不仅取决于城市系统内部变量，也决定于城市在城市网络体系中的位置以及在城市网络体系中承担的功能，为后面的研究奠定了理论基础。
首先，运用生态城市理论，从城市生态系统角度对城市最优规模进行了分析。在对影响城市最优规模要素分析的基础上，理清了基于生态系统分析的城市最优规模思路：城市最优规模同时受城市系统内部要素和系统外部环境的影响。其次，通过对城市系统内部组分、系统外部环境以及生态系统整体的分析，分别构建了基于城市系统内部、系统外部环境的城市最优规模数学模型；最后，再把城市系统内部与外部环境同时考虑，整合基于生态城市整体分析的最优规模数学模型。
基于所创建数学模型在实证研究中的应用，本文以综合性、代表性、层次性、可比性和可操作性为原则，构建了影响城市规模的系统内部和系统外部环境的指标体系，并运用特尔斐法和语义变量分析法对指标进行赋权处理。
以青岛市区为例，对城市的最优规模进行了实证研究。根据第五章建立的数学模型，采用EViews5.0软件，通过对相关数据（基于城市系统内部分析的模型采用1988年-2012年数据，基于城市系统外部环境和生态系统整体分析的模型采用1998年-2012年数据）进行回归分析，分别得出了不同角度下青岛市区的最优城市规模和适度城市规模。并且针对青岛市区城市规模发展现状提出了今后的发展对策。
At present, China is in a period of rapid development of urbanization, which means the rapid increase in city population scale and the sharp expansion of city space scale. The rapid growth of the city size, on the one hand, can promote the development of city economy, improve the city's competitiveness; while on the other hand, it produced some city problems such as the tension, overcrowded housing, traffic congestion, environmental pollution and resource shortages. How to find the city optimal size which both to ensure the sustained and rapid economic growth of the city and not to lead to the city problems—that are the key problems for our country urbanization construction in the21st century.
By researching this topic, can obtain a more comprehensive and in-depth understanding of influence mechanism and laws which affect the city effective size, establish a city effective size solution based on eco-city model, analyze and judge the reasonableness of present city size, further guide the development of the city. This research has important significance to guide and control of the city size and will provide a scientific basis for the policy-makers of the city.
Based on the research background and status quo of the development of the ecological city theory and practice analysis, illustrates the purpose and significance of this study, and puts forward the scientific method to study the city optimal size from the perspective of eco-city.
This paper first reviews the theoretical and empirical process of city optimal size of cities at home and abroad, and reveals the shortcomings of traditional research methods which pay attention to the research of city within the system without considering the external environment impact on the city optimal size. For the first time, this paper analyzes the city optimal size from the perspective of ecological city. Then concludes that the city optimal size not only depends on the elements within the system, and more depends on its city network connection degree and the function in urban network system. This conclusion is the foundation of the paper behind.
Application of ecological city theory, the paper studies of the city optimal size. The paper analyses the affecting elements of the city optimal scale and clarifies the conclusion that the city optimal size is determined by the city and the system environment of system elements. And construct three mathematical models of city optimal size, respectively based on within the city system, the city system environment and the eco-city system.
In order to facilitate the practice of the mathematical models, the paper builds two systems based on an integrated, representativeness, comparability and operational hierarchy. And empower the indicators by using Delphi method. Using EViews software, the paper builds three mathematical models of Qingdao city through the relevant data and concludes its optimal size and effective size from different perspective. And according to the current situation of the development of Qingdao city, puts forward the countermeasures for future development.
This paper draws on urban ecology, urban economics, social science and other fields of existing research results. Guided by the systems theory, the paper adopts the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, combining induction and deduction, combining the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis and other methods. With urbanization in the background, this paper construct the optimal scale is based on the analysis of the ecological city urban research framework.
在论文研究的过程中，借鉴了城市生态学、城市经济学以及相关社会科学等领域的已有研究成果，以系统论为基础解释方法，采用定性分析与定量分析相结合、归纳总结与演绎推理相结合、理论分析与实证分析相结合等方法，以城市化为背景，建构了基于生态城市理论分析的城市最优规模的研究框架。
通过对研究背景和生态城市理论和实践发展现状的分析，获得影响城市最优规模机理和规律的较为全面和深入的认识，提出从生态城市的角度研究城市最优规模的科学方法，建立基于生态城市的城市最优规模的求解模型，分析和评判城市规模现状的合理与否，进一步指导城市的发展。本文的研究成果对城市规模的引导和控制具有重要的指导意义，将为城市决策者提供一个科学依据。
本文首先回顾了国内外城市最优规模的理论研究和实证过程，揭示了传统研究方法的弊端：仅研究城市内部要素，没有考虑城市外部环境对城市最优规模的影响。首次从生态城市的角度，基于城市是一个生态系统，认为城市最优规模的大小不仅取决于城市系统内部变量，也决定于城市在城市网络体系中的位置以及在城市网络体系中承担的功能，为后面的研究奠定了理论基础。
首先，运用生态城市理论，从城市生态系统角度对城市最优规模进行了分析。在对影响城市最优规模要素分析的基础上，理清了基于生态系统分析的城市最优规模思路：城市最优规模同时受城市系统内部要素和系统外部环境的影响。其次，通过对城市系统内部组分、系统外部环境以及生态系统整体的分析，分别构建了基于城市系统内部、系统外部环境的城市最优规模数学模型；最后，再把城市系统内部与外部环境同时考虑，整合基于生态城市整体分析的最优规模数学模型。
基于所创建数学模型在实证研究中的应用，本文以综合性、代表性、层次性、可比性和可操作性为原则，构建了影响城市规模的系统内部和系统外部环境的指标体系，并运用特尔斐法和语义变量分析法对指标进行赋权处理。
以青岛市区为例，对城市的最优规模进行了实证研究。根据第五章建立的数学模型，采用EViews5.0软件，通过对相关数据（基于城市系统内部分析的模型采用1988年-2012年数据，基于城市系统外部环境和生态系统整体分析的模型采用1998年-2012年数据）进行回归分析，分别得出了不同角度下青岛市区的最优城市规模和适度城市规模。并且针对青岛市区城市规模发展现状提出了今后的发展对策。
At present, China is in a period of rapid development of urbanization, which means the rapid increase in city population scale and the sharp expansion of city space scale. The rapid growth of the city size, on the one hand, can promote the development of city economy, improve the city's competitiveness; while on the other hand, it produced some city problems such as the tension, overcrowded housing, traffic congestion, environmental pollution and resource shortages. How to find the city optimal size which both to ensure the sustained and rapid economic growth of the city and not to lead to the city problems—that are the key problems for our country urbanization construction in the21st century.
By researching this topic, can obtain a more comprehensive and in-depth understanding of influence mechanism and laws which affect the city effective size, establish a city effective size solution based on eco-city model, analyze and judge the reasonableness of present city size, further guide the development of the city. This research has important significance to guide and control of the city size and will provide a scientific basis for the policy-makers of the city.
Based on the research background and status quo of the development of the ecological city theory and practice analysis, illustrates the purpose and significance of this study, and puts forward the scientific method to study the city optimal size from the perspective of eco-city.
This paper first reviews the theoretical and empirical process of city optimal size of cities at home and abroad, and reveals the shortcomings of traditional research methods which pay attention to the research of city within the system without considering the external environment impact on the city optimal size. For the first time, this paper analyzes the city optimal size from the perspective of ecological city. Then concludes that the city optimal size not only depends on the elements within the system, and more depends on its city network connection degree and the function in urban network system. This conclusion is the foundation of the paper behind.
Application of ecological city theory, the paper studies of the city optimal size. The paper analyses the affecting elements of the city optimal scale and clarifies the conclusion that the city optimal size is determined by the city and the system environment of system elements. And construct three mathematical models of city optimal size, respectively based on within the city system, the city system environment and the eco-city system.
In order to facilitate the practice of the mathematical models, the paper builds two systems based on an integrated, representativeness, comparability and operational hierarchy. And empower the indicators by using Delphi method. Using EViews software, the paper builds three mathematical models of Qingdao city through the relevant data and concludes its optimal size and effective size from different perspective. And according to the current situation of the development of Qingdao city, puts forward the countermeasures for future development.
This paper draws on urban ecology, urban economics, social science and other fields of existing research results. Guided by the systems theory, the paper adopts the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, combining induction and deduction, combining the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis and other methods. With urbanization in the background, this paper construct the optimal scale is based on the analysis of the ecological city urban research framework.
引文
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