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基于WSN的船舶危险品运输风险预警模型与仿真研究
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摘要
船舶运输是世界上最主要的运输方式之一,其中有超过半数以上的船载货物属于危险品。危险品在运输过程中安全控制的复杂度高,管理难度大,事故时有发生。一旦事故发生,就会对生命、财产和环境造成重大威胁。船舶危险品运输的安全问题一直是世人所关注的热点问题。尽管目前有关部门对危险品运输的安全管理做了大量工作,但是仍旧难以彻底解决危险品运输的安全问题。对船舶运输过程中货物的安全状态进行有效监控,实现风险预警,保障运输安全,是当前亟待解决的一个现实问题。本文针对船载包装危险品,围绕其运输途中的状态监测和风险预警问题开展了以下几方面的研究工作:
     (1)将无线传感器网络用于对舱室内表征货物安全状态的环境信息的监控,从而达到掌握危险货物安全状态的目的,设计了适用于船上实施的无线传感器网络拓扑结构,并通过实船实验验证了其可行性。
     (2)将时间序列分析方法引入危险品安全状态的预测问题中,在基于单传感器的货物安全状态信息的分析、预测中,针对传统的差分方法在时间序列平稳化过程中容易造成有价值信息丢失,影响计算精度的问题,提出了一种指数平滑法和自回归移动法的组合方法;在基于多传感器的信息融合研究中,提出了基于协整理论的船载危险品在途安全状态信息融合处理方法,该方法发挥多传感器的优势,可对危险品在途状态信息进行较为准确的预测,同时具有异常状态的诊断功能。
     (3)为掌握船载危险品处于异常状态下的危险态势演变过程,提出将计算流体力学数值模拟方法引入到船舶包装危险品运输风险监测预警问题的研究中,采用该方法在船舱内有危险气体产生的情况下,对危险气体的泄漏、扩散进行了数值计算和动态仿真。同时,结合相应的物理实验对方法的可行性予以验证,实验结果表明,计算流体力学数值模拟方法应用于船舶包装危险品运输风险预警问题可行、有效。
     (4)为指导船上人员对货物异常状态进行应急处置,提出一种将无线传感器网络监测和计算流体力学数值模拟有机结合的新方法,实现对船载包装危险品异常状态的态势判定。该方法一方面将无线传感器网络作为危险货物状态的监测手段,另一方面采用计算流体力学方法事先对运输过程中可能出现的典型异常状态做数值模拟,最后运用模式识别方法将二者有机结合,实现对船载危险品异常状态的态势判定。在该模式识别的相似性度量问题研究中,针对大数据量情况下现有的动态时间弯曲算法复杂度高、计算效率低的问题,提出了一种基于动态时间弯曲的模式距离滑动窗口算法。
Sea shipping is one of the most leading transportation ways for world trade, and more than half ship cargos belong to dangerous goods. As is well known, the security control and management to the transportation for dangerous cargos is very difficult to execute extremely well, which leads to the accidents happen frequently. Once an accident happens, it will cause serious threat to human life, natural environment and economy. As a result, the safety of water transportation for dangerous cargos has drawn common people's attention. For present, a lot of safety management work has been done to dangerous goods transportation, but it does not go far enough to ensure transportation safety. So, it is an urgent issue to monitor the safety state of dangerous shipping cargo when they are in transit, which can realize the risk early warning and ensure the safety of dangerous cargo transportation. Aimed at this problem and focused on the package dangerous cargos and their state monitoring and risk early warning, this article will take researches form the following aspects:
     (1) In order to know well the security status of dangerous goods on board, wireless sensor network is used to monitor the environment information which indicates the safety of dangerous goods, and the wireless sensor network topology control method fit to ship is designed and tested by this paper.
     (2) Time series analysis is leaded into early warning for the safety of dangerous goods. In the analysis and early warning of dangerous goods security status information from single sensor, traditional difference method would lose the valuable information and influence the precision of early warning in the process of flatting time series. According to this situation, the exponential smoothing and autoregressive moving average are proposed. In the multi-sensor information fusion research, the paper proposes an algorithm for ship-borne dangerous goods in-transit security status information fusion based on co-integration theory, the algorithm plays the advantages of multi-sensor, can predict the dangerous goods status information accurately, and simultaneously, and diagnose whether the status is normal or not.
     (3) To master the evolution of the risk situation of the ship dangerous goods in abnormal state, Proposes that lead CFD numerical simulation method into the researches of ship packaged dangerous goods transport risk monitoring and early warning, in the case of hazardous gases in cargo hold, leakage and diffusion of hazardous gases are calculated and dynamic simulation by using this method. Meanwhile, combines the corresponding physical experiment to test the feasibility of the method, experimental results show that CFD numerical simulation method used in risk early warning of ship packaged dangerous goods transport is feasible and effective.
     (4) In order to provide guidance for ship's officer to emergency disposal of shipping cargos'abnormal condition, a new way to judge the abnormal condition of shipping dangerous package goods is realized on the basis of combining technologies of the WSN monitoring and CFD numerical modeling. In this way, the WSN is used as the tool for monitoring dangerous goods state, and the CFD is used to do numerical model for the typical abnormal state in transit, then these two technologies are combined by the use of Pattern Recognition to judge the state of the shipping dangerous cargos. In the research of similarity measuring method of Pattern Recognition, aimed at the high complexity and low computational efficiency of the existing Dynamic Time Warp (DTW) algorithm, a pattern distance sliding window algorithm based on DTW is presented in this article.
引文
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