基于复杂系统的供应链需求流管理研究
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摘要
随着外部市场环境的复杂化和企业间竞争的激烈化,广义的外部供应链管理不断被认可,并逐渐成为供应链管理的主流思想。而广义供应链管理要求各节点企业实现高度的协调与合作,需求的流动与共享是协同运作工作中的一个重要环节。在供应链需求流管理过程中,由于所处的供应链环境的复杂性以及需求的不确定性、动态性等复杂性特点,使需求流管理系统呈现了复杂系统特征。复杂系统理论能够揭示系统内部复杂机理的运作规律,是当前科学研究的前沿。而已有文献很少有从复杂性角度展开对需求流管理的研究。因此,文章以需求流管理为研究对象,以复杂系统为研究平台,揭示了需求流管理的内部运行机制及运行规律,并为该管理提供了对策建议。因此,本文的研究具有一定的理论价值和实践价值。
本文在对供应链需求、需求流管理以及复杂系统等内容的国内外文献进行归纳总结的基础上,从复杂系统层面对供应链需求流管理展开了探讨,主要内容包括：
第一,供应链需求流管理系统的复杂性。按照需求流过程将需求流管理系统划分为三个子系统：需求信息采集及预测系统、需求流程分形重构系统以及需求流失真的成因及矫正系统。通过分析需求流管理的复杂性成因并阐述需求流管理系统的复杂性特征表现,对供应链需求流管理系统属复杂系统进行了判断。
第二,需求信息采集及预测模型的构建。在对采集及预测的供应链及需求进行限定的基础上,根据需求预测目标选择评价指标,然后按照时间序列进行数据采集。在完成数据采集的基础上,对需求时间序列数据进行混沌特性判别,若不存在混沌特性,则用回归分析方法进行预测；若存在混沌特性,则采用混沌神经网络中的加权局域多步预测方法进行预测。通过实证检验,验证该方法是可行的。
第三,需求流程的分形重构。通过对现有的四种信息流动模式的比较,选择集成式信息流动模式为需求传递流程的基准模式。在此基础上构建需求流程的分形模式,该模式的分形特点、分形重构的过程及重构的意义均得到了详细的分析。
第四,需求流失真的成因及矫正研究,即牛鞭效应的成因及治理探讨。在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上,从复杂性角度入手,探讨了牛鞭效应的5大复杂性成因,并详细分析了这些因素在什么条件下、以何种途径对牛鞭效应形成何种影响。根据总结出的复杂性成因,文章给出了具体的治理方案。
文章最后一章根据前文所述的内容制定出了供应链需求流管理的对策及建议。
With the complexity of market and the intensification of competition, integrated supply chain is being recognized and becomes the main ideology in supply chain management. It needs the coordination and cooperation between the node enterprises, an impoertant part-the management of demand flow and share being included. Because of the complication of supply chain and the uncertainty, dynamic of demand, the character of complex system in the management of demand flow is present. It is known that complex system which can reveal the complex mechanism and operation law in complex objects is a forward science in the 21st century. Take demand flow management as subject and take complex system as platform, this paper does the research on demand flow management based on the theory of complex system to reveal the inner operation mechanism and law, which has the value of both theory and practise.
Based of the summary of exist results at home and abroad, demand supply management was discussed as follows:
Firstly, complexity in the demand flow management system. The system was divided into three subsystem, which is demand collection and demand prediction system, demand process reengineering system and bullwhip effect system. A conclusion was made that demand flow management system belongs to complex system through the the complexity causes and the complex characteristics of the system.
Secondly, the model establishment of demand collection and demand prediction. According to the purpose of the prediction, the indexes were chosen for the data collection which shall be satisfy the requirement of continuity and then the data become to time series. After that, the chaos discrimination shall be carried on. If there is no chaos, regression analysis shall be used to the prediction while there is, the theory of weighted one order local domain multi-step prediction shall be used. empirical study was shown to verrify the feasibility of the model.
Thirdly, the fractal model and reengineering of demand process. With the comparision of four current information transfer models, integrated transfer model was be choosen to be basic model because of its advantages. Then fractal model was be established, as well as the fractal charicters, fractal reengineering and its meaning were explained in details.
Fourthly, the cause and prevention of bullwhip effect. From the angle of complexity, five causes were analysised. It answered the question of why, when, how and what. According to this, the measurements were given to prevent bullwhip effect.
At last, countermeasure and suggestion were given to tell how to do a good job in the managemet of demand flow in supply chain.
本文在对供应链需求、需求流管理以及复杂系统等内容的国内外文献进行归纳总结的基础上,从复杂系统层面对供应链需求流管理展开了探讨,主要内容包括：
第一,供应链需求流管理系统的复杂性。按照需求流过程将需求流管理系统划分为三个子系统：需求信息采集及预测系统、需求流程分形重构系统以及需求流失真的成因及矫正系统。通过分析需求流管理的复杂性成因并阐述需求流管理系统的复杂性特征表现,对供应链需求流管理系统属复杂系统进行了判断。
第二,需求信息采集及预测模型的构建。在对采集及预测的供应链及需求进行限定的基础上,根据需求预测目标选择评价指标,然后按照时间序列进行数据采集。在完成数据采集的基础上,对需求时间序列数据进行混沌特性判别,若不存在混沌特性,则用回归分析方法进行预测；若存在混沌特性,则采用混沌神经网络中的加权局域多步预测方法进行预测。通过实证检验,验证该方法是可行的。
第三,需求流程的分形重构。通过对现有的四种信息流动模式的比较,选择集成式信息流动模式为需求传递流程的基准模式。在此基础上构建需求流程的分形模式,该模式的分形特点、分形重构的过程及重构的意义均得到了详细的分析。
第四,需求流失真的成因及矫正研究,即牛鞭效应的成因及治理探讨。在借鉴已有研究成果的基础上,从复杂性角度入手,探讨了牛鞭效应的5大复杂性成因,并详细分析了这些因素在什么条件下、以何种途径对牛鞭效应形成何种影响。根据总结出的复杂性成因,文章给出了具体的治理方案。
文章最后一章根据前文所述的内容制定出了供应链需求流管理的对策及建议。
With the complexity of market and the intensification of competition, integrated supply chain is being recognized and becomes the main ideology in supply chain management. It needs the coordination and cooperation between the node enterprises, an impoertant part-the management of demand flow and share being included. Because of the complication of supply chain and the uncertainty, dynamic of demand, the character of complex system in the management of demand flow is present. It is known that complex system which can reveal the complex mechanism and operation law in complex objects is a forward science in the 21st century. Take demand flow management as subject and take complex system as platform, this paper does the research on demand flow management based on the theory of complex system to reveal the inner operation mechanism and law, which has the value of both theory and practise.
Based of the summary of exist results at home and abroad, demand supply management was discussed as follows:
Firstly, complexity in the demand flow management system. The system was divided into three subsystem, which is demand collection and demand prediction system, demand process reengineering system and bullwhip effect system. A conclusion was made that demand flow management system belongs to complex system through the the complexity causes and the complex characteristics of the system.
Secondly, the model establishment of demand collection and demand prediction. According to the purpose of the prediction, the indexes were chosen for the data collection which shall be satisfy the requirement of continuity and then the data become to time series. After that, the chaos discrimination shall be carried on. If there is no chaos, regression analysis shall be used to the prediction while there is, the theory of weighted one order local domain multi-step prediction shall be used. empirical study was shown to verrify the feasibility of the model.
Thirdly, the fractal model and reengineering of demand process. With the comparision of four current information transfer models, integrated transfer model was be choosen to be basic model because of its advantages. Then fractal model was be established, as well as the fractal charicters, fractal reengineering and its meaning were explained in details.
Fourthly, the cause and prevention of bullwhip effect. From the angle of complexity, five causes were analysised. It answered the question of why, when, how and what. According to this, the measurements were given to prevent bullwhip effect.
At last, countermeasure and suggestion were given to tell how to do a good job in the managemet of demand flow in supply chain.
引文
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