商品住宅项目财务分析的主要问题研究
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摘要
目前,商品住宅产业发展迅猛,已成为经济发展的支柱产业,商品住宅也日益成为重要的投资工具。商品住宅的财务分析是整个商品住宅开发过程中的关键环节,它的成败将直接影响开发项目能否顺利进行。在商品住宅产业日臻成熟、竞争日益激烈的今天,决策者越来越重视对财务分析方法的分析与研究。如何运用科学有效的评价方法对商品住宅项目进行财务分析,是决策者迫切需要解决的问题。
传统财务分析方法是当前房地产企业采取的主要分析工具,这些工具为房地产企业理性投资、促进商品住宅产业的健康发展起到了巨大的作用。但是,传统财务分析方法本身具有局限性,主要是忽视了商品住宅投资中的不确定性和动态灵活性所带来的价值,容易导致企业不能正常决策,放弃有利的投资机会。基于此,本文将实物期权方法引入到商品住宅财务分析中,基于期权理论的实物期权方法把项目的净现值加上一个期权价值作为项目的价值,从而弥补了传统财务分析方法的不足,是一种更为合理的财务分析方法。本文首先介绍了传统财务分析理论和实物期权理论,然后深入分析了针对商品住宅项目如何进行传统财务分析和实物期权分析,最后,运用传统财务分析方法和实物期权分析方法对某商品住宅开发项目进行了实证分析。
实物期权是研究实物投资的一种新方法,并逐渐地趋向成熟。本文结合实物期权理论领域研究的成果,将实物期权方法应用于商品住宅财务分析。实物期权理论应用于商品住宅财务分析,并不是对传统财务分析方法的简单否定,而是在保留传统财务分析方法合理内核的基础上,对传统财务分析方法固有的局限性进行了突破和进一步的发展,此评价方法对我国商品住宅财务分析是一个有益的探索,具有较高的理论意义和实用价值。
At present, the commercial residential industry is developing rapidly, which has become a pillar industry of economic development, the commercial residential has become increasingly important investment vehicle.The financial analysis of the commercial residential is the key link in the whole developing process of commercial residential, it will directly affect that development projects can proceed smoothly. Now the commercial residential industry is daily mature and increasingly competitive, policy makers more and more emphasis on the analysis of financial analysis and research. How to use scientific and effective evaluation method analysis the commercial residential financial, policy-makers urgently need to address the problem.
Traditional financial analysis approach is taken by the current real estate enterprises as the main tools for rational investment in real estate enterprises, which has played a great role in promoting the healthy development of the housing industry. However, the traditional financial analysis methods have their own limitations, mainly ignored the value brought by the uncertainty and flexibility in the commercial residential investment, which easily lead that enterprises make normal decisions and give up the favourable investment opportunities. Based on that, the article will introduce real options approach to the commercial residential financial analysis.based on option theory of real options approach to the project with a net present value of option value as the value of the project, which makes up the traditional financial analysis methods, The shortage is a more reasonable financial analysis methods.The article first introduced the theory of traditional financial analysis and real options theory, and then for commodity-depth analysis of the residential project how the traditional financial analysis and real options analysis, finally, the use of traditional financial analysis methods and real options analysis of a commodity residential Positive development projects carried out analysis.
Real option is a new method on the research of real investment, which tends to mature gradually. Based on the field of real options theory, real options analysis method has been applied to the commercial residential financial analysis. Real options theory is applied to the commercial residential financial analysis,it is not the traditional methods of simple denial, but retain the traditional financial analysis methods on the basis of reasonable core of traditional financial analysis of the inherent limitations of a breakthrough and further The development of this evaluation method on Chinese commercial residential financial analysis is a useful exploration, which has a high theoretical and practical value.
传统财务分析方法是当前房地产企业采取的主要分析工具,这些工具为房地产企业理性投资、促进商品住宅产业的健康发展起到了巨大的作用。但是,传统财务分析方法本身具有局限性,主要是忽视了商品住宅投资中的不确定性和动态灵活性所带来的价值,容易导致企业不能正常决策,放弃有利的投资机会。基于此,本文将实物期权方法引入到商品住宅财务分析中,基于期权理论的实物期权方法把项目的净现值加上一个期权价值作为项目的价值,从而弥补了传统财务分析方法的不足,是一种更为合理的财务分析方法。本文首先介绍了传统财务分析理论和实物期权理论,然后深入分析了针对商品住宅项目如何进行传统财务分析和实物期权分析,最后,运用传统财务分析方法和实物期权分析方法对某商品住宅开发项目进行了实证分析。
实物期权是研究实物投资的一种新方法,并逐渐地趋向成熟。本文结合实物期权理论领域研究的成果,将实物期权方法应用于商品住宅财务分析。实物期权理论应用于商品住宅财务分析,并不是对传统财务分析方法的简单否定,而是在保留传统财务分析方法合理内核的基础上,对传统财务分析方法固有的局限性进行了突破和进一步的发展,此评价方法对我国商品住宅财务分析是一个有益的探索,具有较高的理论意义和实用价值。
At present, the commercial residential industry is developing rapidly, which has become a pillar industry of economic development, the commercial residential has become increasingly important investment vehicle.The financial analysis of the commercial residential is the key link in the whole developing process of commercial residential, it will directly affect that development projects can proceed smoothly. Now the commercial residential industry is daily mature and increasingly competitive, policy makers more and more emphasis on the analysis of financial analysis and research. How to use scientific and effective evaluation method analysis the commercial residential financial, policy-makers urgently need to address the problem.
Traditional financial analysis approach is taken by the current real estate enterprises as the main tools for rational investment in real estate enterprises, which has played a great role in promoting the healthy development of the housing industry. However, the traditional financial analysis methods have their own limitations, mainly ignored the value brought by the uncertainty and flexibility in the commercial residential investment, which easily lead that enterprises make normal decisions and give up the favourable investment opportunities. Based on that, the article will introduce real options approach to the commercial residential financial analysis.based on option theory of real options approach to the project with a net present value of option value as the value of the project, which makes up the traditional financial analysis methods, The shortage is a more reasonable financial analysis methods.The article first introduced the theory of traditional financial analysis and real options theory, and then for commodity-depth analysis of the residential project how the traditional financial analysis and real options analysis, finally, the use of traditional financial analysis methods and real options analysis of a commodity residential Positive development projects carried out analysis.
Real option is a new method on the research of real investment, which tends to mature gradually. Based on the field of real options theory, real options analysis method has been applied to the commercial residential financial analysis. Real options theory is applied to the commercial residential financial analysis,it is not the traditional methods of simple denial, but retain the traditional financial analysis methods on the basis of reasonable core of traditional financial analysis of the inherent limitations of a breakthrough and further The development of this evaluation method on Chinese commercial residential financial analysis is a useful exploration, which has a high theoretical and practical value.
引文
[1]刘晓君.技术经济学[M].西安:西北大学出版社,2002.1
[2]刘晓君.工程经济学[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2003
[3]中华人民共和国建设部.房地产开发项目经济评价方法[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2000
[4]陈琳,潘蜀健.房地产项目投资[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2004.2
[5]刘秋雁.房地产投资分析[M].大连:东北财经出版社,2003.6
[6]刘正山.房地产投资分析[M].大连:东北财经出版社,2004.8
[7]国家发展改革委,建设部.建设项目经济评价方法与参数[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2006.8
[8]投资项目可行性研究指南编写组.投资项目可行性研究指南[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2002
[9]刘立群.田淑芳.房地产投资分析[M]:北京.化学工业出版社,2005.6
[10]中国房地产估价师与房地产经纪人学会.房地产开发与经营[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2005
[11]注册咨询工程师(投资)考试教材编写委员会.项目决策分析与评价[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2003.4
[12]张红.房地产经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.8
[13]李一智主编.期权与期货教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.12
[14]杨春鹏著.实物期权及其应用[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2003.11
[15]姜礼尚著.期权定价的数学模型和方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2003.1
[16]马莎·阿姆拉姆,纳林·库拉蒂拉卡著,张维等译.实物期权:不确定性环境下战略投资管理[M].机械工业出版社,2001
[17]郁良洪.金融期权与实物期权-比较与应用[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003
[18]陈琳.房地产开发投资的财务分析[J].中外房地产导报.2003年第24期
[19]候春慧.房地产投资财务分析及其评价指标[J].西部财会,2005.6
[20]方智勇.房地产投资项目评估的动态分析方法[J].知识丛林,2006.10
[21]陈岩炳.房地产项目的投资分析[J].大众科技,2005.11
[22]唐建立,陆龙坤.实物期权方法在房地产投资项目评估中的应用[J].重庆工学院学报,2002.12
[23]曾卫华等.实物期权方法在房地产投资决策中的应用[J].建筑技术开发,2003.10
[24]涂平晖等.实物期权的分类及其实例分析[J].武汉理工大学学报,2003.10
[25]李进涛等.实物期权理论在房地产投资决策中的应用[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2003.6
[26]周焯华.房地产开发评估的实物期权方法[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2005.6
[27]刘玉明,刘长滨.实物期权理论在房地产投资项目决策中的应用研究[J].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2006.6
[28]钱斌,刘尔烈.实物期权在房地产估价中的应用[J].中原工学院学报,2003.3
[29]吴立扬,魏蓉.基于实物期权的房地产开发投资决策模型[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2006.10
[30]周焯华.房地产开发评估的实物期权方法[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2005.6
[31]周丽娟.实物期权理论在房地产投资决策中的应用[J].金融观察,2006.3
[32]杨若晶,赵红梅.房地产投资决策的实物期权方法[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2005.9
[33]刘明霞.实物期权理论及其管理思维[J].科技进步与对策,2004.6
[34]周立新,尹晓玲.实物期权理论及应用研究综述[J].重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版·双月刊),第20卷第2期
[35]谢联桓,孟繁.投资项目的传统评价方法和现实期权评价方法的比较分析[J].科技管理研究,2001年第2期
[36]茅宁.项目评价的实物期权分析方法研究[J].南京化工大学学报,2000年第4期
[37]于洋,王辉,杜永怡.我国实物期权研究的回顾与思考[J].科研管理,2003年第4期
[38]羊利锋,雷星晖.实物期权方法在投资项目评估中的运用[J].决策借鉴,2001年第6期
[39]Gaylon E.Gree,Michael D.Farrel.Investment Analysis for Real Estateecisions.LonmanFinancial Services Publishing,Inc.,1998.
[40]Alan Upson.Financial Management of Contractors.BSP Professional books,1987
[41]American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers.The Appraisal of Real Estate.Ninth Edition,1987
[42]Andrew James Mclean,Gary W Eldred,Investing in Real Estate,Wiley,2003
[43]Fillmore W,Galaty.etal,Moden Real Estate Practice,Dearborn Real Education,2002
[44]Myers S.,"Determinants of Corporate Borrowing"Journal of Financial Economics,November,1977
[45]Black F.and M.Scholes,"The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities"Journal of Political Economy[J],Vol:81,Iss:3,1973
[46]Merton R.C."The Theory of Rational Option Pricing"Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science[J],Vol 4,Iss:1,1973
[47]Cox J,Ross S.,"The valuation of options for alternative stochastic Processes"Journalof Financial Economics,Vol:2,Iss:3,1976
[48]Cox J,Ross S,Rubinstein M.,"Option pricing:A simplified approach"Journal of Financial Economics,September,1979
[2]刘晓君.工程经济学[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2003
[3]中华人民共和国建设部.房地产开发项目经济评价方法[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2000
[4]陈琳,潘蜀健.房地产项目投资[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2004.2
[5]刘秋雁.房地产投资分析[M].大连:东北财经出版社,2003.6
[6]刘正山.房地产投资分析[M].大连:东北财经出版社,2004.8
[7]国家发展改革委,建设部.建设项目经济评价方法与参数[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2006.8
[8]投资项目可行性研究指南编写组.投资项目可行性研究指南[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2002
[9]刘立群.田淑芳.房地产投资分析[M]:北京.化学工业出版社,2005.6
[10]中国房地产估价师与房地产经纪人学会.房地产开发与经营[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2005
[11]注册咨询工程师(投资)考试教材编写委员会.项目决策分析与评价[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2003.4
[12]张红.房地产经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.8
[13]李一智主编.期权与期货教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.12
[14]杨春鹏著.实物期权及其应用[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2003.11
[15]姜礼尚著.期权定价的数学模型和方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2003.1
[16]马莎·阿姆拉姆,纳林·库拉蒂拉卡著,张维等译.实物期权:不确定性环境下战略投资管理[M].机械工业出版社,2001
[17]郁良洪.金融期权与实物期权-比较与应用[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003
[18]陈琳.房地产开发投资的财务分析[J].中外房地产导报.2003年第24期
[19]候春慧.房地产投资财务分析及其评价指标[J].西部财会,2005.6
[20]方智勇.房地产投资项目评估的动态分析方法[J].知识丛林,2006.10
[21]陈岩炳.房地产项目的投资分析[J].大众科技,2005.11
[22]唐建立,陆龙坤.实物期权方法在房地产投资项目评估中的应用[J].重庆工学院学报,2002.12
[23]曾卫华等.实物期权方法在房地产投资决策中的应用[J].建筑技术开发,2003.10
[24]涂平晖等.实物期权的分类及其实例分析[J].武汉理工大学学报,2003.10
[25]李进涛等.实物期权理论在房地产投资决策中的应用[J].华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2003.6
[26]周焯华.房地产开发评估的实物期权方法[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2005.6
[27]刘玉明,刘长滨.实物期权理论在房地产投资项目决策中的应用研究[J].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2006.6
[28]钱斌,刘尔烈.实物期权在房地产估价中的应用[J].中原工学院学报,2003.3
[29]吴立扬,魏蓉.基于实物期权的房地产开发投资决策模型[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2006.10
[30]周焯华.房地产开发评估的实物期权方法[J].重庆建筑大学学报,2005.6
[31]周丽娟.实物期权理论在房地产投资决策中的应用[J].金融观察,2006.3
[32]杨若晶,赵红梅.房地产投资决策的实物期权方法[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2005.9
[33]刘明霞.实物期权理论及其管理思维[J].科技进步与对策,2004.6
[34]周立新,尹晓玲.实物期权理论及应用研究综述[J].重庆工商大学学报(社会科学版·双月刊),第20卷第2期
[35]谢联桓,孟繁.投资项目的传统评价方法和现实期权评价方法的比较分析[J].科技管理研究,2001年第2期
[36]茅宁.项目评价的实物期权分析方法研究[J].南京化工大学学报,2000年第4期
[37]于洋,王辉,杜永怡.我国实物期权研究的回顾与思考[J].科研管理,2003年第4期
[38]羊利锋,雷星晖.实物期权方法在投资项目评估中的运用[J].决策借鉴,2001年第6期
[39]Gaylon E.Gree,Michael D.Farrel.Investment Analysis for Real Estateecisions.LonmanFinancial Services Publishing,Inc.,1998.
[40]Alan Upson.Financial Management of Contractors.BSP Professional books,1987
[41]American Institute of Real Estate Appraisers.The Appraisal of Real Estate.Ninth Edition,1987
[42]Andrew James Mclean,Gary W Eldred,Investing in Real Estate,Wiley,2003
[43]Fillmore W,Galaty.etal,Moden Real Estate Practice,Dearborn Real Education,2002
[44]Myers S.,"Determinants of Corporate Borrowing"Journal of Financial Economics,November,1977
[45]Black F.and M.Scholes,"The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities"Journal of Political Economy[J],Vol:81,Iss:3,1973
[46]Merton R.C."The Theory of Rational Option Pricing"Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science[J],Vol 4,Iss:1,1973
[47]Cox J,Ross S.,"The valuation of options for alternative stochastic Processes"Journalof Financial Economics,Vol:2,Iss:3,1976
[48]Cox J,Ross S,Rubinstein M.,"Option pricing:A simplified approach"Journal of Financial Economics,September,1979