我国房地产业SCP范式及市场风险的研究
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摘要
近年来我国GDP每年增速达9%以上,房地产开发投资也以20%左右的增幅持续增长,带动了相关产业的高速发展。但同时房地产业的投资与开发也存在一些问题。基于此,分析我国房地产业市场结构及其对房地产市场行为、市场绩效及市场风险的影响,为房地产市场进一步的发展提供有益的咨询意见等研究已迫在眉睫。
本文主要从西方产业组织理论的角度,采用市场结构-市场行为-市场绩效的分析方法,即经典的SCP(Structure-Conduct-Performance)范式对房地产市场结构、市场行为、市场绩效、及市场风险等问题展开研究,主要内容有:
论文第二章从房地产业基本概念、房地产发展基本理论入手,对西方产业组织理论、市场风险理论进行了详细的综述,作为全文研究的理论框架。第三章应用市场结构理论对我国房地产业的市场结构因素:产业集中度、进退壁垒、市场结构分类等进行了分析和研究,并对研究中的若干指标进行了修正。第四章对房地产市场行为,尤其是房地产市场的价格行为进行分析,应用蛛网模型构建了房地产市场的供需与价格关系模型,并对房地产价格走势给出预测。第五章应用市场绩效理论对房地产市场的绩效进行了分析,给出取得的成绩,并找出存在的不足;并对房地产市场结构与市场绩效的关系进行研究。第六章运用市场结构理论、市场风险理论对房地产市场风险形成的原因进行分析,并对风险路径选取、指标的确定等进行了研究;在上述分析、研究的基础上构建了房地产市场风险评价体系模型。第七章选取天津房地产市场作为实证对象,对天津房地产市场的市场结构、市场行为、市场绩效及市场风险进行实证研究及评价,根据评价结果,指出天津房地产市场中存在的不足,并针对天津房地产市场目前存在的问题给出一些对策与建议。
In the recent years, the Gross Domestic Production (GDP) in China has increased more than 9% every year, and the investment of real estate industry also has kept a high growth of around 20% annually, which has brought along development of related industry property. Because the investment of real estate has certain problems, it is essential to analyze the structure and behavior of real estate market, the impact of market performance and risk so as to provide some useful opinions for the further development of real estate market.
In this dissertation, from the view of the western industrial organization theory the method of market structure-market behavior-market performance are supplied, which is the classical model of Structure-Conduct-Performance to do the research on the problems such as the structure, behavior, performance and risk of real estate market. The main contents as follows:
In the second chapter of this paper proceeding from the basic concept of real estate industry and the basic theory of the development of real estate market the western industrial organization and the market risk theory are surveyed in detail as the theory structure. In the third chapter, on the basis of the market structure theory, the structure factors of real estate market in China including the industrial concentration, the entry barriers, the exit barriers and the classification of market structure are studied, and several indexes in the research are corrected. In the fourth chapter, the behavior of real estate market, especially the price behavior of real estate market is analyzed, the relation model of demand, supply and price is built with the cobweb model, and the price trend of real estate market is predicted. In the five chapter, the performance of real estate market with market performance theory is discussed, the achievements are given and the drawbacks are also found; at the same time, the relation of structure of real estate market and market performance are proposed. In the sixth chapter, the causes of the risk formation of real estate market are explained with the market structure theory and the market risk theory, the selection of risk path and the determination of indexes are described, and then the model of appraising system of the risk of real estate market is constructed. In the seventh chapter the structure, behavior, performance of real estate market in Tianjin are evaluated chosen the real estate market in Tianjin as the empirical object. According to the results of evaluation, the insufficiencies are pointed out in the real estate market, and the measures and suggestions are put forward in allusion to the problems existing in the real estate market in Tianjin.
本文主要从西方产业组织理论的角度,采用市场结构-市场行为-市场绩效的分析方法,即经典的SCP(Structure-Conduct-Performance)范式对房地产市场结构、市场行为、市场绩效、及市场风险等问题展开研究,主要内容有:
论文第二章从房地产业基本概念、房地产发展基本理论入手,对西方产业组织理论、市场风险理论进行了详细的综述,作为全文研究的理论框架。第三章应用市场结构理论对我国房地产业的市场结构因素:产业集中度、进退壁垒、市场结构分类等进行了分析和研究,并对研究中的若干指标进行了修正。第四章对房地产市场行为,尤其是房地产市场的价格行为进行分析,应用蛛网模型构建了房地产市场的供需与价格关系模型,并对房地产价格走势给出预测。第五章应用市场绩效理论对房地产市场的绩效进行了分析,给出取得的成绩,并找出存在的不足;并对房地产市场结构与市场绩效的关系进行研究。第六章运用市场结构理论、市场风险理论对房地产市场风险形成的原因进行分析,并对风险路径选取、指标的确定等进行了研究;在上述分析、研究的基础上构建了房地产市场风险评价体系模型。第七章选取天津房地产市场作为实证对象,对天津房地产市场的市场结构、市场行为、市场绩效及市场风险进行实证研究及评价,根据评价结果,指出天津房地产市场中存在的不足,并针对天津房地产市场目前存在的问题给出一些对策与建议。
In the recent years, the Gross Domestic Production (GDP) in China has increased more than 9% every year, and the investment of real estate industry also has kept a high growth of around 20% annually, which has brought along development of related industry property. Because the investment of real estate has certain problems, it is essential to analyze the structure and behavior of real estate market, the impact of market performance and risk so as to provide some useful opinions for the further development of real estate market.
In this dissertation, from the view of the western industrial organization theory the method of market structure-market behavior-market performance are supplied, which is the classical model of Structure-Conduct-Performance to do the research on the problems such as the structure, behavior, performance and risk of real estate market. The main contents as follows:
In the second chapter of this paper proceeding from the basic concept of real estate industry and the basic theory of the development of real estate market the western industrial organization and the market risk theory are surveyed in detail as the theory structure. In the third chapter, on the basis of the market structure theory, the structure factors of real estate market in China including the industrial concentration, the entry barriers, the exit barriers and the classification of market structure are studied, and several indexes in the research are corrected. In the fourth chapter, the behavior of real estate market, especially the price behavior of real estate market is analyzed, the relation model of demand, supply and price is built with the cobweb model, and the price trend of real estate market is predicted. In the five chapter, the performance of real estate market with market performance theory is discussed, the achievements are given and the drawbacks are also found; at the same time, the relation of structure of real estate market and market performance are proposed. In the sixth chapter, the causes of the risk formation of real estate market are explained with the market structure theory and the market risk theory, the selection of risk path and the determination of indexes are described, and then the model of appraising system of the risk of real estate market is constructed. In the seventh chapter the structure, behavior, performance of real estate market in Tianjin are evaluated chosen the real estate market in Tianjin as the empirical object. According to the results of evaluation, the insufficiencies are pointed out in the real estate market, and the measures and suggestions are put forward in allusion to the problems existing in the real estate market in Tianjin.
引文
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