火灾中人群疏散的仿真研究
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摘要
保障火灾中人员的生命安全是性能化防火设计的核心目标，信息技术的迅速发展，使计算机仿真成为实现这一目标的有效途径。20世纪80年代以来，人员疏散仿真模型在世界范围内得到广泛应用。然而，现阶段火灾中人群疏散的仿真研究仍存在如下不足：首先，仿真仅仅是对人员疏散过程的模拟，而没有考虑火场环境的实时作用。其次，人员疏散具有明显的随机性，然而当前的研究多采用确定性分析方法。最后，建筑疏散性能评估大都直接使用具有固定输入模式的软件，在设定输入参数时，忽略了不同地域的人员行为特征。
有鉴于此，本文依据试验观测与计算机仿真相结合的研究思路，为解决上述问题展开了系列研究：
1．对上海市某地铁车站组织了客流观测试验。通过分析影像资料，获取乘客年龄分布、行走速度等代表我国人员行为特征的信息，对自动扶梯在乘客疏散中的作用进行了研究。现场观测试验的开展，为获得正确的仿真结果提供了保障。
2．提出了火灾物理模拟与人员行为模拟相结合的基本思想。借助火灾模拟程序CFAST与人员疏散仿真软件buildingEXODUS，以某地铁车站为例，进行了火场环境实时作用下的人群疏散仿真研究。结果表明：火场环境会降低人群的判断和活动能力、延长疏散时间，并产生其它不利影响。因此，在防火设计中考虑火场环境的实时作用是必要的。
3．定量研究了道路转角、人员行走速度等疏散过程的影响参数，并反映了各参数之间的相互联系。结果表明：各个参数对疏散过程的影响不同。此外，即使是相同的参数，对不同类型建筑的影响也存在差异。
4．发展了求解安全疏散可靠度的概率密度演化方法，通过概率密度演化理论的分析，表明利用一次二阶矩法求解安全疏散可靠度是可行的。
5．在上述研究的基础上，初步建立了基于可靠性的安全疏散优化控制方法。
最后，简要讨论了需要进一步研究的问题。
Ensuring the occupants' life safety is the principal object of performance-basedfireproof design. Due to the rapid development of information technology, simulationmethod has become a valid approach to achieve the desired object. Since 1980s,evacuation simulation models have been applied widely in the world. However, thereare some deficiencies in current simulation research of crowd evacuation in case offire, and mainly including: firstly, nothing more than evacuees' evacuation process issimulated, which neglects the real-time influence of fire environment on the crowdevacuation. Secondly, occupant evacuation in fire environment is a stochastic process,but most studies are based on deterministic analysis. And lastly, several computersoftwares with uniform input patterns are used straightly in the building evacuationperformance evaluation, as to the setting of input parameters, the behaviorcharacteristic of evacuee in different areas are usually ignored.
To solve the problems described above, some further investigations are carriedout based on following the idea which combines observation test with computersimulation:
1. A passenger flow observation test is organized in a subway station ofShanghai city. Some data regarding Chinese behavior characters are obtained byvideo record analysis, for example, the passengers' age distribution, the walkingspeed, etc. At the same time, how the escalator affects passenger evacuation is alsostudied. The successful observation test is helpful for gaining more accuratesimulation results.
2. The combinative idea of physical simulation and behavior simulation isproposed, with the help of CFAST and buildingEXODUS, the crowd evacuation aimat a subway station is simulated and analyzed. The results show that the real-time fireenvironment will reduce the judgment ability and mobility of crowd and result inretard of evacuation process and other unfavorable consequence. So it is necessary toconsiderate the effect of fire environment on the crowd evacuation in the future fireproof design.
3. Key influence parameters of occupant evacuation process are quantitativelyanalyzed, including the corner angle, pedestrian speed etc, and the relations betweendifferent parameters are reflected. The results clearly prove that different parametershave different effects on the crowd evacuation. And even for the same parameter, theinfluence degree may depend on different building types.
4. Safety evacuation reliability assessment technology is developed byprobability density evolution method, from which the FOSM method is tested to bevalidated.
5. Based on above work, safety evacuation optimal control method is alsostudied in this dessertation.
Finally, further researches are briefly discussed.
有鉴于此，本文依据试验观测与计算机仿真相结合的研究思路，为解决上述问题展开了系列研究：
1．对上海市某地铁车站组织了客流观测试验。通过分析影像资料，获取乘客年龄分布、行走速度等代表我国人员行为特征的信息，对自动扶梯在乘客疏散中的作用进行了研究。现场观测试验的开展，为获得正确的仿真结果提供了保障。
2．提出了火灾物理模拟与人员行为模拟相结合的基本思想。借助火灾模拟程序CFAST与人员疏散仿真软件buildingEXODUS，以某地铁车站为例，进行了火场环境实时作用下的人群疏散仿真研究。结果表明：火场环境会降低人群的判断和活动能力、延长疏散时间，并产生其它不利影响。因此，在防火设计中考虑火场环境的实时作用是必要的。
3．定量研究了道路转角、人员行走速度等疏散过程的影响参数，并反映了各参数之间的相互联系。结果表明：各个参数对疏散过程的影响不同。此外，即使是相同的参数，对不同类型建筑的影响也存在差异。
4．发展了求解安全疏散可靠度的概率密度演化方法，通过概率密度演化理论的分析，表明利用一次二阶矩法求解安全疏散可靠度是可行的。
5．在上述研究的基础上，初步建立了基于可靠性的安全疏散优化控制方法。
最后，简要讨论了需要进一步研究的问题。
Ensuring the occupants' life safety is the principal object of performance-basedfireproof design. Due to the rapid development of information technology, simulationmethod has become a valid approach to achieve the desired object. Since 1980s,evacuation simulation models have been applied widely in the world. However, thereare some deficiencies in current simulation research of crowd evacuation in case offire, and mainly including: firstly, nothing more than evacuees' evacuation process issimulated, which neglects the real-time influence of fire environment on the crowdevacuation. Secondly, occupant evacuation in fire environment is a stochastic process,but most studies are based on deterministic analysis. And lastly, several computersoftwares with uniform input patterns are used straightly in the building evacuationperformance evaluation, as to the setting of input parameters, the behaviorcharacteristic of evacuee in different areas are usually ignored.
To solve the problems described above, some further investigations are carriedout based on following the idea which combines observation test with computersimulation:
1. A passenger flow observation test is organized in a subway station ofShanghai city. Some data regarding Chinese behavior characters are obtained byvideo record analysis, for example, the passengers' age distribution, the walkingspeed, etc. At the same time, how the escalator affects passenger evacuation is alsostudied. The successful observation test is helpful for gaining more accuratesimulation results.
2. The combinative idea of physical simulation and behavior simulation isproposed, with the help of CFAST and buildingEXODUS, the crowd evacuation aimat a subway station is simulated and analyzed. The results show that the real-time fireenvironment will reduce the judgment ability and mobility of crowd and result inretard of evacuation process and other unfavorable consequence. So it is necessary toconsiderate the effect of fire environment on the crowd evacuation in the future fireproof design.
3. Key influence parameters of occupant evacuation process are quantitativelyanalyzed, including the corner angle, pedestrian speed etc, and the relations betweendifferent parameters are reflected. The results clearly prove that different parametershave different effects on the crowd evacuation. And even for the same parameter, theinfluence degree may depend on different building types.
4. Safety evacuation reliability assessment technology is developed byprobability density evolution method, from which the FOSM method is tested to bevalidated.
5. Based on above work, safety evacuation optimal control method is alsostudied in this dessertation.
Finally, further researches are briefly discussed.
引文
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