基于碳中和的中国林业碳汇交易市场研究
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摘要
在全球气候变暖的背景下,中国积极承诺并开展控制温室气体排放行动。林业经营管理中造林与再造林以及减少毁林和防止森林退化的措施,作为有效控制二氧化碳排放的手段而被各方关注,特别是随着世界碳排放权交易市场的发展,以及中国碳交易试点工作的开展,林业碳汇的市场功能预期被逐渐放大。为了更好的根据现有的经济理论设计一套符合中国国情的碳交易机制,调动排放主体参与的积极性,需要制定有效的碳交易市场的建立路径,将减排与森林碳汇生态服务结合。本研究将围绕着森林碳汇生态服务与工业减排的成本比较、林业碳汇市场的供给与需求、碳交易价格波动及收益风险等问题进行研究,以验证生态经济模式的可行性,从而探索出适合中国国情的,在牺牲经济代价最小的前提下,控制温室气体排放的路径。
第一部分,研究主要介绍了基于林业碳中和建立中国碳排放权交易市场研究的背景、目的及意义。同时对相关的文献按照林业碳汇、碳排放权交易市场、林业碳汇交易三个方面进行文献综述,并对研究中所运用的理论进行必要的梳理。
第二部分,创新的将碳汇市场的需求与供给相结合,重点回答林业碳中和经济可行性和中国林业碳汇供给能力两个问题。在林业碳中和经济可行性分析中,首先通过案例分析体现森林碳汇生态服务具有抵消工业排放的能力,提出循环经济的企业运行模式。其次通过长期能源规划模型,预测中国钢铁、水泥、化工及造纸等部门的减排需求,然后以钢铁行业为例,通过中观行业角度进行经济学意义上的短期、中长期成本效益分析,证明通过森林碳汇生态服务可以在不影响经济发展的前提下达到控制温室气体排放的目标。在中国林业碳汇供给分析中,首先综述目前林业碳汇项目的方法学,然后对中国CDM林业碳汇项目以及新西兰REDD项目进行案例分析,之后创新的运用了系统动力学模型模拟REDD项目下林业碳汇的供给以及土地经营者的收益,从供给的角度证明在中国有建立林业碳汇市场的基础,并在模型中引入价格序列波动,证明了碳市场的价格波动会影响林业碳汇收益。
第三部分,国际碳交易市场的经验借鉴,包括国际主要碳市场价格波动分析及比较以及国际主要碳市场风险度量及比较。通过总结各类碳交易市场的价格波动和风险变化的特点,创新的以金融风险的角度,对国际目前主要的强制性和自愿性碳交易市场进行了比较,为中国建立自己的全国范围内的碳交易市场提供经验借鉴,重点解决中国应该建立什么类型的碳交易市场的问题。
第四部分,即中国林业碳汇交易市场建立路径,首先根据第三部分的结论,为中国碳交易市场制定一个终极的蓝图,创新的利用演化经济学的理论,将中国碳交易市场划归三个阶段,制定一个可行的演进路径。在推演的过程中对碳市场的建立及监管涉及到的相关事项提出相应的政策建议。
Under the background of global warming, China actively commits to and carries out controlling greenhouse gas emissions. Forestry management is caught in the spotlight because of that afforestation and reforestation and reducing deforestation and forest degradation which are parts of it are considered as effective measures in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Especially with the development of the carbon trade in the world and the pilot work of China's carbon market, the expectation of forestry carbon sinks in the market is being expended steply. In order to design a better carbon trading mechanism which is in line with China's national conditions based on the existing economic theory and to mobilize the enterprise emissions reduction initiative, it needs to plan a effective path of establishing a carbon trading market to combine emission reduction with forest carbon sequestration ecosystem services. This study focuses on cost comparison of forest ecosystem services and carbon sequestration of industrial emissions, supply and demand of forestry carbon market and fluctuations in the price and yield risks of carbon trading in order to verify the feasibility of ecological economic model and explore suitable ways for China to reduce emissions under the premise of minimal economic costs.
The first part introduces the background, purpose and significance of analysis on carbon emission trading market in China based on carbon neutral by forest and reviews the references divided into three categories witch are about forestry carbon sequestration, carbon emissions trading market and forestry carbon sequestration transaction, as while as it also summarizes the research theory which the study based on.
The second part combines demand of the carbon market with the supply innovatively and focuses on two issues those are economic feasibility of carbon neutral by forest and the ability of the supply of carbon credit by forestry carbon sequestration project in China. In the section of analysis of economic feasibility of carbon neutral by forest, it uses one case to prove that forest carbon sequestration ecosystem services have the ability in offset the industrial emissions and proposes enterprise operation mode of circular economy. It forecasts CO2emissions in iron and steel, cement, chemicals and paper production by LEAP model and then it commits the short-term and long-term cost-benefit analysis on iron and steel industry to prove it can achieve the emissions target by forestry carbon sequestration project without impact of economic development. In the section of the supply of carbon credit by forestry carbon sequestration project in China, it summarizes forestry carbon sequestration methodology and analysises two cases which are CDM afforestation and reforestation project in Guangxi province and REDD project in New Zealand. It simulates the benefits of the REDD project by using system dynamics model into witch price series are innovatively improved and it indicates that there is foundation of establishing forestry carbon market in China and price fluctuations will affect the income of forestry carbon sequestration.
The third part is called experience in international carbon trading market and also includes two sections which are the analysis and comparison of price fluctuations in major international carbon market and the study on measuring the risk of major international carbon emissions trading market. It describes characteristics of various types of carbon trading market price fluctuations and risk and compares regulated carbon market and voluntary one in financial risk perspective innovatively. This part answers witch type market China should establish and provides experience.
The forth part is called the path of China forestry carbon sequestration market established. It provides a blueprint for China forestry carbon sequestration market based on the consequences of the third part, divides the development of the Chinese carbon trading market into three stages based on evolutionary economics, plans an effective path to the target and proposes appropriate policy recommendations.
第一部分,研究主要介绍了基于林业碳中和建立中国碳排放权交易市场研究的背景、目的及意义。同时对相关的文献按照林业碳汇、碳排放权交易市场、林业碳汇交易三个方面进行文献综述,并对研究中所运用的理论进行必要的梳理。
第二部分,创新的将碳汇市场的需求与供给相结合,重点回答林业碳中和经济可行性和中国林业碳汇供给能力两个问题。在林业碳中和经济可行性分析中,首先通过案例分析体现森林碳汇生态服务具有抵消工业排放的能力,提出循环经济的企业运行模式。其次通过长期能源规划模型,预测中国钢铁、水泥、化工及造纸等部门的减排需求,然后以钢铁行业为例,通过中观行业角度进行经济学意义上的短期、中长期成本效益分析,证明通过森林碳汇生态服务可以在不影响经济发展的前提下达到控制温室气体排放的目标。在中国林业碳汇供给分析中,首先综述目前林业碳汇项目的方法学,然后对中国CDM林业碳汇项目以及新西兰REDD项目进行案例分析,之后创新的运用了系统动力学模型模拟REDD项目下林业碳汇的供给以及土地经营者的收益,从供给的角度证明在中国有建立林业碳汇市场的基础,并在模型中引入价格序列波动,证明了碳市场的价格波动会影响林业碳汇收益。
第三部分,国际碳交易市场的经验借鉴,包括国际主要碳市场价格波动分析及比较以及国际主要碳市场风险度量及比较。通过总结各类碳交易市场的价格波动和风险变化的特点,创新的以金融风险的角度,对国际目前主要的强制性和自愿性碳交易市场进行了比较,为中国建立自己的全国范围内的碳交易市场提供经验借鉴,重点解决中国应该建立什么类型的碳交易市场的问题。
第四部分,即中国林业碳汇交易市场建立路径,首先根据第三部分的结论,为中国碳交易市场制定一个终极的蓝图,创新的利用演化经济学的理论,将中国碳交易市场划归三个阶段,制定一个可行的演进路径。在推演的过程中对碳市场的建立及监管涉及到的相关事项提出相应的政策建议。
Under the background of global warming, China actively commits to and carries out controlling greenhouse gas emissions. Forestry management is caught in the spotlight because of that afforestation and reforestation and reducing deforestation and forest degradation which are parts of it are considered as effective measures in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Especially with the development of the carbon trade in the world and the pilot work of China's carbon market, the expectation of forestry carbon sinks in the market is being expended steply. In order to design a better carbon trading mechanism which is in line with China's national conditions based on the existing economic theory and to mobilize the enterprise emissions reduction initiative, it needs to plan a effective path of establishing a carbon trading market to combine emission reduction with forest carbon sequestration ecosystem services. This study focuses on cost comparison of forest ecosystem services and carbon sequestration of industrial emissions, supply and demand of forestry carbon market and fluctuations in the price and yield risks of carbon trading in order to verify the feasibility of ecological economic model and explore suitable ways for China to reduce emissions under the premise of minimal economic costs.
The first part introduces the background, purpose and significance of analysis on carbon emission trading market in China based on carbon neutral by forest and reviews the references divided into three categories witch are about forestry carbon sequestration, carbon emissions trading market and forestry carbon sequestration transaction, as while as it also summarizes the research theory which the study based on.
The second part combines demand of the carbon market with the supply innovatively and focuses on two issues those are economic feasibility of carbon neutral by forest and the ability of the supply of carbon credit by forestry carbon sequestration project in China. In the section of analysis of economic feasibility of carbon neutral by forest, it uses one case to prove that forest carbon sequestration ecosystem services have the ability in offset the industrial emissions and proposes enterprise operation mode of circular economy. It forecasts CO2emissions in iron and steel, cement, chemicals and paper production by LEAP model and then it commits the short-term and long-term cost-benefit analysis on iron and steel industry to prove it can achieve the emissions target by forestry carbon sequestration project without impact of economic development. In the section of the supply of carbon credit by forestry carbon sequestration project in China, it summarizes forestry carbon sequestration methodology and analysises two cases which are CDM afforestation and reforestation project in Guangxi province and REDD project in New Zealand. It simulates the benefits of the REDD project by using system dynamics model into witch price series are innovatively improved and it indicates that there is foundation of establishing forestry carbon market in China and price fluctuations will affect the income of forestry carbon sequestration.
The third part is called experience in international carbon trading market and also includes two sections which are the analysis and comparison of price fluctuations in major international carbon market and the study on measuring the risk of major international carbon emissions trading market. It describes characteristics of various types of carbon trading market price fluctuations and risk and compares regulated carbon market and voluntary one in financial risk perspective innovatively. This part answers witch type market China should establish and provides experience.
The forth part is called the path of China forestry carbon sequestration market established. It provides a blueprint for China forestry carbon sequestration market based on the consequences of the third part, divides the development of the Chinese carbon trading market into three stages based on evolutionary economics, plans an effective path to the target and proposes appropriate policy recommendations.
引文
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