甘肃葫芦河流域的径流分布式模拟
摘要
甘肃葫芦河流域地处干旱半干旱地区,属于渭河的一级支流,水文循环系统与生态系统都具有特殊性。同时,由于特定的自然环境的限制和人为因素的影响,该地区生态环境和水资源可承载能力日趋恶化,并且温室效应的影响使得温度日趋升高,已经影响到当地人民的生产生活,因此,有必要对葫芦河流域水资源量进行深入地研究,建立可靠的分布式水文模型。
本文以葫芦河秦安站水文观测断面以上流域为例,基于SWAT模型建立了分布式水文模型,以日为时间尺度,分别进行了流域的年、月径流深的模拟,模拟结果可以为流域的水资源综合利用和水资源合理分配提供借鉴。
本文在已有研究区的DEM图、土地利用图(LUCC)和土壤类型图,将流域划分为了33个子流域和100个水文响应单元(HRU)。结合SWAT模型数据库,建立了葫芦河流域相应的土壤数据库、土地利用数据库和气象数据库。根据建立的模型模拟了研究区内1985-1994年的年、月径流量,对比秦安水文站的实测径流资料,以1985-1989年为校准期,以1991-1994年为验证期。结果表明,模型在月径流校准期和验证期的相关系数分别为0.85和0.81,Nash-Suttcliffe系数E_(ns)(效率系数)分别为0.73和0.95,达到了精度分析的要求,因此建立的模型可以应用与葫芦河流域。此外,本文在最后利用模型模拟了土地利用变化和气温、降雨改变对研究区径流量的影响,得出气温的降低和降水量的增加都可以不同程度的增加径流量,但是径流对降水量的变化响应要比气温更加明显。
The primary branch of Weihe River-Hulu River basin is located in arid and semi-arid area in Gansu Province, of which hydrological cycle and ecosystem hold its own particularities. Meanwhile, ecological environment and water resources carrying capacity may decrease because of the specific restrictions on the natural environment and man-made factors, and as greenhouse effect is to be on the rise, it has becoming an increasing threat to human life. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the water resource and establish reliable distributed hydrological model in Hulu River.
In this paper, SWAT distributed hydrological model is founded, which is applied to the upstream of Qin'an hydrology observation section in Hulu River. Day is used as time scale for the monthly and annual runoff depth simulation. The results can provide reference for comprehensive utilization and reasonable allocation of water resources.
33 sub-basins and 100 HRU are divided in the study area according to existing DEM, LUCC and soil type maps. Then DEM, LUCC and soil type database are established combine with the database of SWAT model. Monthly and annual runoff from 1985 to 1994 in the study area is simulated by SWAT model. The data is from Qin'an hydrologic station, thereinto, data from 1985 to 1989 is considered as the validation phase, and 1991-1994 as the verification phase. The calculation results demonstrate that, the correlation coefficents of the model in calibration phase and in verification phase are 0.85 and 0.95, and Nash-Suttcliffe coefficients are 0.73 and 0.95 respectively, which meet the demand of precision analysis. Accordingly, the established model can be applied to Hulu River basin. Furthermore, the effects of landuse, temperature and rainfall on the runoff is examined using SWAT model, which show that the decrease of temperature and the increase of rainfall can add the runoff to some extent, and compare to the temperature, rainfall is more sensitive to the runoff.
本文以葫芦河秦安站水文观测断面以上流域为例,基于SWAT模型建立了分布式水文模型,以日为时间尺度,分别进行了流域的年、月径流深的模拟,模拟结果可以为流域的水资源综合利用和水资源合理分配提供借鉴。
本文在已有研究区的DEM图、土地利用图(LUCC)和土壤类型图,将流域划分为了33个子流域和100个水文响应单元(HRU)。结合SWAT模型数据库,建立了葫芦河流域相应的土壤数据库、土地利用数据库和气象数据库。根据建立的模型模拟了研究区内1985-1994年的年、月径流量,对比秦安水文站的实测径流资料,以1985-1989年为校准期,以1991-1994年为验证期。结果表明,模型在月径流校准期和验证期的相关系数分别为0.85和0.81,Nash-Suttcliffe系数E_(ns)(效率系数)分别为0.73和0.95,达到了精度分析的要求,因此建立的模型可以应用与葫芦河流域。此外,本文在最后利用模型模拟了土地利用变化和气温、降雨改变对研究区径流量的影响,得出气温的降低和降水量的增加都可以不同程度的增加径流量,但是径流对降水量的变化响应要比气温更加明显。
The primary branch of Weihe River-Hulu River basin is located in arid and semi-arid area in Gansu Province, of which hydrological cycle and ecosystem hold its own particularities. Meanwhile, ecological environment and water resources carrying capacity may decrease because of the specific restrictions on the natural environment and man-made factors, and as greenhouse effect is to be on the rise, it has becoming an increasing threat to human life. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the water resource and establish reliable distributed hydrological model in Hulu River.
In this paper, SWAT distributed hydrological model is founded, which is applied to the upstream of Qin'an hydrology observation section in Hulu River. Day is used as time scale for the monthly and annual runoff depth simulation. The results can provide reference for comprehensive utilization and reasonable allocation of water resources.
33 sub-basins and 100 HRU are divided in the study area according to existing DEM, LUCC and soil type maps. Then DEM, LUCC and soil type database are established combine with the database of SWAT model. Monthly and annual runoff from 1985 to 1994 in the study area is simulated by SWAT model. The data is from Qin'an hydrologic station, thereinto, data from 1985 to 1989 is considered as the validation phase, and 1991-1994 as the verification phase. The calculation results demonstrate that, the correlation coefficents of the model in calibration phase and in verification phase are 0.85 and 0.95, and Nash-Suttcliffe coefficients are 0.73 and 0.95 respectively, which meet the demand of precision analysis. Accordingly, the established model can be applied to Hulu River basin. Furthermore, the effects of landuse, temperature and rainfall on the runoff is examined using SWAT model, which show that the decrease of temperature and the increase of rainfall can add the runoff to some extent, and compare to the temperature, rainfall is more sensitive to the runoff.
引文
[1]陈腊娇基于SWAT模型的土地利用/覆被变化产流产沙效应模拟—以陇东马莲河流域为例
[2]刘昌明,郑红星,王中根.流域水循环分布式模型[M]黄河水利出版社2005
[3]SWAT辅助下的径流模拟与生态恢复水文响应研究[M]
[4]熊立华,郭生练.分布式流域水文模型[M]中国水利水电出版社2004
[5]Srinivasan R,Arnold J G,Jones CA.Hydrologic modeling of the United States withthe Soil and Water Assessment Tool.Water Resources Development.1988,4(3):315-325.
[6]Manguerra H B,Engel B A.Hydrologic parameterization of watersheds for runoff prediction using SWAT.Journal of the American Water Resources Association.1998,34(5):1149-1162.
[7]Hernandez M,Miller S N,Goodrich D C.Modeling Runoff response to land cover and rainfall spatial variability in semi-arid watersheds.Environmental Monitoring andAssessment.2000,64:285-298.
[8]Celine C,Ghislain M,Faycal B.A long-term hydrological modeling of the Upper Guadiana river basin.Physics and Chemistry of the Earth.2003,28:193-200.
[9]CrUise J F,Limaye A S.Assessment of impacts of climate change on water quality in the southeastern United States.Journal of the American Water Resources Association.1999,35(6):1539-1550.
[10]Chaplot V,Salet A,Jaynes D B.Effect of the accuracy of spatial rainfall information on the modeling of water sediment,and NO3-N loads at watershed level.Journal of Hydrology.2005,312:223-234.
[ll]Saleh A,Arnold J G,Gassman P W.Application of Swat for the Upper North Bosque River Watershed.Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural Engineers.2000,43(5):1077-1087.
[12]Eileen CDMackay.Effects of distribution-based parameter aggregation on a spatially distributed agricultural nonpoint source pollution model.Journal of Hydrology.2004,295:211-224.
[13]Chanasyk D S,Mapfumo E,Willms W.Quantification and simulation of surface runoff from rescue grassland watersheds.Agricultural Water Management.2003,59:137-153.
[14]Hernandez M,Miller S N,.Goodrich D C.Modeling runoff response to land cover and rainfall spatial variability in semi-arid watersheds.Environmental Monitoring andAssessment.2000,64:285-298.
[15]Tripathi MP,Panda R K,Raghuwanshi N S.Identification and Prioritisation of Critical Sub-watersheds for Soil Conservation Management using the SWAT Model.Biosystems Engineering.2003,85(3):365-379.
[16]Romanowicz AA,Vanclooster M,Rounsevell M,Junesse I L Sensitivity of the SWAT model to the soil and land use data parametrisation:a case study in the Thyle catchment,Belgium.Ecological Modelling.2005,187(1):27-39.
[17]秦福来,王晓燕,张美华.基于GIS的流域水文模型—SWAT模型的动态研究.首都师范大学学报.2006,27(1):81-82.
[18]王中根,刘昌明,黄友波.SWAT模型的原理、结构及应用研究.地理科学进展.2003,22(1):80-86.
[19]黄清华,张万昌.SWAT分布式水文模型在黑河干流山区流域的改进及应用.南京大业大学学报(自然科学版).2004,28(2):22-26.
[20]杨桂莲,郝群芳.基于SWAT模型的基流估算及评价—以洛河流域为例.地理科学进展.2003,22:463-471.
[21]盛春淑,罗定贵.基于AVSWAT丰乐河流域水文预测.中国农学通报.2006,22(9):493-497.
[22]朱新军,王中根,李建新,于磊等.SWAT模型在漳卫河流域应用研究.地理科学进展.2006,25(5):105-111.
[23]郝芳华,陈利群,刘昌明.土地利用变化对产流和产沙的影响分析.水土保持学报.2004,18(3):5-8.
[24]刘昌明,李道峰,田英等.基于DEM的分布式水文模型在大尺度流域应用研究.地理科学进展.2003,22(3):437-447.
[25]贺国平,张彤,周东.土地覆被和气候变化的水文响应研究.北京水务.2006,(3):27-31.
[26]张运生.GIS和遥感辅助下的江西潋水河流域化学径流模拟讨论(硕士学位论文).南京师范大学:地图学与地理信息系统专业.2003.
[27]胡远安,程声通,贾海峰.非点源模型中的水文模拟—以SWAT模型在芦溪小流域的应用为例.环境科学研究.2003,16(5):29-34.
[28]桂峰,于革.洪湖流域传统农业条件下营养盐输移模拟研究.第四纪研究.2006,26(5):849-856.
[29]胡连伍,王学军,周定贵,蒋颖.基于SWAT2000模型的流域氮营养素环境自净效率模拟—以杭埠—丰乐河流域为例.地理与地理信息科学.2006,22C2):35-38.
[30]万超,张思聪.基于GIS的潘家口水库面源污染负荷计算.水力发电学报.2003,(3):5-8.
[31]张东,张万昌,朱利等.SWAT分布式流域水文物理模型的改进及应用研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(4):434-440.
[32]贾仰文,王浩,倪广恒等.分布式流域水文模型原理与实践中国水利水电出版社2005
[33]郝芳华,程红光,杨胜天.非点源污染模型—理论方法与应用中国环境科学出版社2006
[34]聂中青,贾冰,王刚等.近50年来葫芦河流域气候变化特征分析[J].兰州大学学报,2009,20(2):25-27
[35]会宁县农业区划委员会.甘肃省会宁县农业资源调查与区划[M].1986
[36]静宁县农业区划办公室.甘肃省静宁县综合农业区划[M].1985
[37]Saghafian B.Implementation of a distributed hydrologic model with GRASS,In Environment Modeling with GIS[M].Goodchild,(ed.) Oxford university Press,1982.
[38]Wu K,Johnston C,Cherrier C,et al.Hydrologic calibration of the SWAT model in a great lakes coastal watershed[J].Water Resources Publications,LLC,Highlands Ranch,USA,2006:14-28
[39]Huisman J A,Breusr L and Frede H G.Spatial transferability of automatically calibrated swat model parameters in the dill catchment and three of its sub-catchments[J].Geophysical Research Abstracts,2004
[40]郑红星,王中根,刘昌明等.基于GIS/RS的流域水平过程分布式模拟[J].水科学进展,2004,(4):506-510
[41]李栋梁,刘德祥.甘肃气候.北京:气象出版社,2000.9
[42]周正朝,上官周平.土壤侵蚀模型研究综述[J].中国水土保持科学,2004,2(1):52-56.
[43]王鹏.基于SWAT模型的岔路河星星哨水库以上流域径流模拟.2007
[44]曾涛,郝振纯,王加虎.气候变化对径流影响的模拟[J].冰川冻土,2004,26(3):324-323.
[45]李道峰,田英,刘昌明.黄河河源区变化环境下分布式水文模型[J].地理学报,2004,59(4):565-573
[46]Thian Yew Gan,Getu Fana.Biftu.Automatic calibration of conceptuall rainfall-runoff models:optimization algorithms,catchment conditions,and model structure[J].Water resources research,1996,32(12):3513-3524.
[47]Grunwald S,Norton L.D,Calibration and validation of a non-point source pollution model[J].Agricultural Water Management,2000,45(1):17-39.
[48]宋艳华.SWAT辅助下的径流模拟与生态恢复水文响应研究—以陇西黄土高原华家岭南河流域为例[J].
[2]刘昌明,郑红星,王中根.流域水循环分布式模型[M]黄河水利出版社2005
[3]SWAT辅助下的径流模拟与生态恢复水文响应研究[M]
[4]熊立华,郭生练.分布式流域水文模型[M]中国水利水电出版社2004
[5]Srinivasan R,Arnold J G,Jones CA.Hydrologic modeling of the United States withthe Soil and Water Assessment Tool.Water Resources Development.1988,4(3):315-325.
[6]Manguerra H B,Engel B A.Hydrologic parameterization of watersheds for runoff prediction using SWAT.Journal of the American Water Resources Association.1998,34(5):1149-1162.
[7]Hernandez M,Miller S N,Goodrich D C.Modeling Runoff response to land cover and rainfall spatial variability in semi-arid watersheds.Environmental Monitoring andAssessment.2000,64:285-298.
[8]Celine C,Ghislain M,Faycal B.A long-term hydrological modeling of the Upper Guadiana river basin.Physics and Chemistry of the Earth.2003,28:193-200.
[9]CrUise J F,Limaye A S.Assessment of impacts of climate change on water quality in the southeastern United States.Journal of the American Water Resources Association.1999,35(6):1539-1550.
[10]Chaplot V,Salet A,Jaynes D B.Effect of the accuracy of spatial rainfall information on the modeling of water sediment,and NO3-N loads at watershed level.Journal of Hydrology.2005,312:223-234.
[ll]Saleh A,Arnold J G,Gassman P W.Application of Swat for the Upper North Bosque River Watershed.Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural Engineers.2000,43(5):1077-1087.
[12]Eileen CDMackay.Effects of distribution-based parameter aggregation on a spatially distributed agricultural nonpoint source pollution model.Journal of Hydrology.2004,295:211-224.
[13]Chanasyk D S,Mapfumo E,Willms W.Quantification and simulation of surface runoff from rescue grassland watersheds.Agricultural Water Management.2003,59:137-153.
[14]Hernandez M,Miller S N,.Goodrich D C.Modeling runoff response to land cover and rainfall spatial variability in semi-arid watersheds.Environmental Monitoring andAssessment.2000,64:285-298.
[15]Tripathi MP,Panda R K,Raghuwanshi N S.Identification and Prioritisation of Critical Sub-watersheds for Soil Conservation Management using the SWAT Model.Biosystems Engineering.2003,85(3):365-379.
[16]Romanowicz AA,Vanclooster M,Rounsevell M,Junesse I L Sensitivity of the SWAT model to the soil and land use data parametrisation:a case study in the Thyle catchment,Belgium.Ecological Modelling.2005,187(1):27-39.
[17]秦福来,王晓燕,张美华.基于GIS的流域水文模型—SWAT模型的动态研究.首都师范大学学报.2006,27(1):81-82.
[18]王中根,刘昌明,黄友波.SWAT模型的原理、结构及应用研究.地理科学进展.2003,22(1):80-86.
[19]黄清华,张万昌.SWAT分布式水文模型在黑河干流山区流域的改进及应用.南京大业大学学报(自然科学版).2004,28(2):22-26.
[20]杨桂莲,郝群芳.基于SWAT模型的基流估算及评价—以洛河流域为例.地理科学进展.2003,22:463-471.
[21]盛春淑,罗定贵.基于AVSWAT丰乐河流域水文预测.中国农学通报.2006,22(9):493-497.
[22]朱新军,王中根,李建新,于磊等.SWAT模型在漳卫河流域应用研究.地理科学进展.2006,25(5):105-111.
[23]郝芳华,陈利群,刘昌明.土地利用变化对产流和产沙的影响分析.水土保持学报.2004,18(3):5-8.
[24]刘昌明,李道峰,田英等.基于DEM的分布式水文模型在大尺度流域应用研究.地理科学进展.2003,22(3):437-447.
[25]贺国平,张彤,周东.土地覆被和气候变化的水文响应研究.北京水务.2006,(3):27-31.
[26]张运生.GIS和遥感辅助下的江西潋水河流域化学径流模拟讨论(硕士学位论文).南京师范大学:地图学与地理信息系统专业.2003.
[27]胡远安,程声通,贾海峰.非点源模型中的水文模拟—以SWAT模型在芦溪小流域的应用为例.环境科学研究.2003,16(5):29-34.
[28]桂峰,于革.洪湖流域传统农业条件下营养盐输移模拟研究.第四纪研究.2006,26(5):849-856.
[29]胡连伍,王学军,周定贵,蒋颖.基于SWAT2000模型的流域氮营养素环境自净效率模拟—以杭埠—丰乐河流域为例.地理与地理信息科学.2006,22C2):35-38.
[30]万超,张思聪.基于GIS的潘家口水库面源污染负荷计算.水力发电学报.2003,(3):5-8.
[31]张东,张万昌,朱利等.SWAT分布式流域水文物理模型的改进及应用研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(4):434-440.
[32]贾仰文,王浩,倪广恒等.分布式流域水文模型原理与实践中国水利水电出版社2005
[33]郝芳华,程红光,杨胜天.非点源污染模型—理论方法与应用中国环境科学出版社2006
[34]聂中青,贾冰,王刚等.近50年来葫芦河流域气候变化特征分析[J].兰州大学学报,2009,20(2):25-27
[35]会宁县农业区划委员会.甘肃省会宁县农业资源调查与区划[M].1986
[36]静宁县农业区划办公室.甘肃省静宁县综合农业区划[M].1985
[37]Saghafian B.Implementation of a distributed hydrologic model with GRASS,In Environment Modeling with GIS[M].Goodchild,(ed.) Oxford university Press,1982.
[38]Wu K,Johnston C,Cherrier C,et al.Hydrologic calibration of the SWAT model in a great lakes coastal watershed[J].Water Resources Publications,LLC,Highlands Ranch,USA,2006:14-28
[39]Huisman J A,Breusr L and Frede H G.Spatial transferability of automatically calibrated swat model parameters in the dill catchment and three of its sub-catchments[J].Geophysical Research Abstracts,2004
[40]郑红星,王中根,刘昌明等.基于GIS/RS的流域水平过程分布式模拟[J].水科学进展,2004,(4):506-510
[41]李栋梁,刘德祥.甘肃气候.北京:气象出版社,2000.9
[42]周正朝,上官周平.土壤侵蚀模型研究综述[J].中国水土保持科学,2004,2(1):52-56.
[43]王鹏.基于SWAT模型的岔路河星星哨水库以上流域径流模拟.2007
[44]曾涛,郝振纯,王加虎.气候变化对径流影响的模拟[J].冰川冻土,2004,26(3):324-323.
[45]李道峰,田英,刘昌明.黄河河源区变化环境下分布式水文模型[J].地理学报,2004,59(4):565-573
[46]Thian Yew Gan,Getu Fana.Biftu.Automatic calibration of conceptuall rainfall-runoff models:optimization algorithms,catchment conditions,and model structure[J].Water resources research,1996,32(12):3513-3524.
[47]Grunwald S,Norton L.D,Calibration and validation of a non-point source pollution model[J].Agricultural Water Management,2000,45(1):17-39.
[48]宋艳华.SWAT辅助下的径流模拟与生态恢复水文响应研究—以陇西黄土高原华家岭南河流域为例[J].