水库防洪调度多目标风险分析模型及应用研究
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摘要
水资源是人类生存和经济社会发展的物质基础，是不可替代的重要自然资源。随着经济社会的发展和城市化进程的加快，人们对水资源数量和质量的需求越来越高，而可利用的淡水资源是有限的。匮乏的水资源不仅制约了经济社会的发展，而且造成了水环境的不断恶化。水库作为重要的水利工程之一，研究水库的防洪风险与兴利优化具有重要的理论与现实意义。
本文在学习和借鉴了前人研究工作成果的基础上，进行了水库防洪兴利风险分析的理论探讨和实际应用研究。研究提出了水库风险分析方法与实施程序；建立了水库调度风险分析的模型和水库兴利优化调度模型。以陆浑水库为实例，对水库不同汛限水位方案的风险与兴利进行分析评价，从水库防洪风险的角度提出了水库汛限水位的推荐意见。具体内容如下。
(1) 在系统查阅了国内处文献的基础上，综述了水库风险分析的国内外研究现状。指出其存在的主要问题及今后努力方向。
(2) 阐明了水库防洪调度风险和风险分析的概念，在系统分析了水库防洪调度的风险问题基础上，从风险与风险分析的概念出发，明确了风险分析的对象，研究提出了包括由风险识别、风险估计、风险评价和风险决策组成水库防洪调度风险评价的实施程序，拓展了水库防洪调度风险分析的研究思路和内容。
(3) 系统研究了水库调度风险分析技术，分析了蒙特卡罗(Monte—Carlo)模拟技术的原理，结合水库防洪调度风险分析的特点，设计了水库防洪调度多风险因素、多风险目标风险分析蒙特卡罗(Monte—Carlo)模拟技术的模拟流程。给出了水库防洪调度风险分析中的主要风险因素分布的随机模拟公式，并设计了模拟程序。研究提出了基于蒙特卡罗(Monte—Carlo)的多风险因素、多风险目标风险分析技术和方法。
(4) 分析确定了水库防洪调度的风险目标，给出了水库防洪调度风险的定义。在此基础上，确定以洪水典型选择、洪水预报误差和防洪调度滞时为主要风险因素，分析确定了主要风险因素的风险估计方法，给出了相应的模拟公式，并编制了相应的模拟程序。
(5) 在简述动态规划基本原理的基础上，建立了综合利用水库兴利优化调度模型。针对水库兴利和调洪计算中，水位、库容和泄量的关系不易在计算机上实现的问题，结合陆浑水库的实际，采用插值法，建立了水位、库容和水位、泄量的关系。陆浑水库的应用研究证明采用的方法是有效的。
(6) 结合陆浑水库的实际，对陆浑水库进行了防洪调度风险分析，用VisualBasic计算机语言编制了防洪调度多因素、多目标风险分析蒙特卡罗
郑州大学硕士学位论文
中/英文摘要
(五勿nte一Carlo)模拟程序。用陆浑水库的实测洪水、水库特征、洪水预报成果
和水库防洪调度等资料，对陆浑水库的316.5m、317.5m、318.5m的不同汛限水位
方案，按设计洪水成果，对防洪目标的风险和兴利效益进行了大量的模拟计算，
得到了各种情况下的不同防洪目标的风险率和风险效益。通过系统全面的分析，
从防洪调度风险的角度得到陆浑水库汛限水位的推荐方案为3 16.5汛限水位方案，该
方案的防洪调度的风险率是028%，教315.5汛限水位方案多年平均增加发电量lx
106Kw.h.。根据各汛限水位方案考虑不同不确定因素的风险分析结果的综合对比，
得出了在洪水典型选择、洪水预报和调度滞时等三个不确定性因素中，洪水预报
的不确定性是防洪调度的主要风险来源的结论。
Water is the material basis of human beings' survival and social and economic development and it is important natural resource that can't be replaced. With economic and social development and with municipal process quickening, people have higher demand for water quantity and water quality. But fresh water that can be used is limited. So scarce water not only restricts economic and social development but also results in continuous deterioration of water environment. As reservoir is one of important hydraulic project, study on the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention and utilizable benefit is important and has theoretical and practical meaning.
In this paper, research situation of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention at home and at abroad is analyzed and the shortcomings of risk analysis of flood-prevention at present are pointed out. On the basis of concept of risk and risk analysis, the reservoir's risk analysis method and putting procedure into practice are presented. The model of risk analysis and the model of utilizable benefit for reservoir operation are established. At last, risk and utilizable benefit are studied about the different schema of water level of luhun reservoir in flood period and suggestion of water level in flood period is presented from the viewpoint of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention. The concrete contents are as follows:
(1) Research situation of the reservoir's risk analysis of flood-prevention at home and at abroad is summarized on the basis of consulting some literatures. The shortcomings of the reservoir's risk analysis of flood-prevention at present and the working pivots in later work are pointed out.
(2) Concept of the reservoir's risk and risk analysis of flood-prevention are illuminated. Criticized problem of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention, From concept of risk and risk analysis, the object of risk analysis is defined and the reservoir's risk analysis method and putting procedure into practice including risk identifies, risk estimate, risk evaluation, risk decision are put forward.
(3) The reservoir's risk analytic technology of flood-prevention is researched and Monte-Carlo imitative technique is analyzed. Imitative procedure of Monte-Carlo of multi-objective and multi-factor risk analysis is planned in light of specialty of reservoir's risk of flood-prevention. Imitative formula of major factor about reservoir's risk analysis of flood-prevention are given and Imitative procedure are designed. Monte-Carlo of multi-objective and multi-factor risk analysis technique and method are
brought forward.
(4) Risk objective of reservoir flood operation are certained and the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention are defined. So the conclusion that flood- typical choice, flood-forecast error, flood-operation delay are major risk factor are decided. Method of risk estimate about major risk factor are pointed out and formula and imitative procedure of major risk factor are designed.
(5) Based on Dynamic programming principle, Dynamic programming model for reservoir utilizable benefit is established. The put value method is introduced, which realize relation between water level, capacity of reservoir and discharge of reservoir in computer. The method is proved effective by studied luhun reservoir.
(6) Risk of the flood-prevention is analyzed according to the luhun reservoir of actual and Imitative procedure of Monte-Carlo of multi-objective and multi-factor is drewed up using Visual Basic. A lot of calculation of objective flood-prevention and utilizable are imitated for different water level in flood period used datum of luhun reservoir actual flood, reservoir characteristic, flood forecast and reservoir flood-prevention, as a result, different risk probability of flood-prevention and risk benefit are acquired in the every kind of condition. After all-round analyzing the results, suggestion of 316.5 water level in flood period for lunhun reservoir is presented from the viewpoint of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention. Risk prob
本文在学习和借鉴了前人研究工作成果的基础上，进行了水库防洪兴利风险分析的理论探讨和实际应用研究。研究提出了水库风险分析方法与实施程序；建立了水库调度风险分析的模型和水库兴利优化调度模型。以陆浑水库为实例，对水库不同汛限水位方案的风险与兴利进行分析评价，从水库防洪风险的角度提出了水库汛限水位的推荐意见。具体内容如下。
(1) 在系统查阅了国内处文献的基础上，综述了水库风险分析的国内外研究现状。指出其存在的主要问题及今后努力方向。
(2) 阐明了水库防洪调度风险和风险分析的概念，在系统分析了水库防洪调度的风险问题基础上，从风险与风险分析的概念出发，明确了风险分析的对象，研究提出了包括由风险识别、风险估计、风险评价和风险决策组成水库防洪调度风险评价的实施程序，拓展了水库防洪调度风险分析的研究思路和内容。
(3) 系统研究了水库调度风险分析技术，分析了蒙特卡罗(Monte—Carlo)模拟技术的原理，结合水库防洪调度风险分析的特点，设计了水库防洪调度多风险因素、多风险目标风险分析蒙特卡罗(Monte—Carlo)模拟技术的模拟流程。给出了水库防洪调度风险分析中的主要风险因素分布的随机模拟公式，并设计了模拟程序。研究提出了基于蒙特卡罗(Monte—Carlo)的多风险因素、多风险目标风险分析技术和方法。
(4) 分析确定了水库防洪调度的风险目标，给出了水库防洪调度风险的定义。在此基础上，确定以洪水典型选择、洪水预报误差和防洪调度滞时为主要风险因素，分析确定了主要风险因素的风险估计方法，给出了相应的模拟公式，并编制了相应的模拟程序。
(5) 在简述动态规划基本原理的基础上，建立了综合利用水库兴利优化调度模型。针对水库兴利和调洪计算中，水位、库容和泄量的关系不易在计算机上实现的问题，结合陆浑水库的实际，采用插值法，建立了水位、库容和水位、泄量的关系。陆浑水库的应用研究证明采用的方法是有效的。
(6) 结合陆浑水库的实际，对陆浑水库进行了防洪调度风险分析，用VisualBasic计算机语言编制了防洪调度多因素、多目标风险分析蒙特卡罗
郑州大学硕士学位论文
中/英文摘要
(五勿nte一Carlo)模拟程序。用陆浑水库的实测洪水、水库特征、洪水预报成果
和水库防洪调度等资料，对陆浑水库的316.5m、317.5m、318.5m的不同汛限水位
方案，按设计洪水成果，对防洪目标的风险和兴利效益进行了大量的模拟计算，
得到了各种情况下的不同防洪目标的风险率和风险效益。通过系统全面的分析，
从防洪调度风险的角度得到陆浑水库汛限水位的推荐方案为3 16.5汛限水位方案，该
方案的防洪调度的风险率是028%，教315.5汛限水位方案多年平均增加发电量lx
106Kw.h.。根据各汛限水位方案考虑不同不确定因素的风险分析结果的综合对比，
得出了在洪水典型选择、洪水预报和调度滞时等三个不确定性因素中，洪水预报
的不确定性是防洪调度的主要风险来源的结论。
Water is the material basis of human beings' survival and social and economic development and it is important natural resource that can't be replaced. With economic and social development and with municipal process quickening, people have higher demand for water quantity and water quality. But fresh water that can be used is limited. So scarce water not only restricts economic and social development but also results in continuous deterioration of water environment. As reservoir is one of important hydraulic project, study on the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention and utilizable benefit is important and has theoretical and practical meaning.
In this paper, research situation of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention at home and at abroad is analyzed and the shortcomings of risk analysis of flood-prevention at present are pointed out. On the basis of concept of risk and risk analysis, the reservoir's risk analysis method and putting procedure into practice are presented. The model of risk analysis and the model of utilizable benefit for reservoir operation are established. At last, risk and utilizable benefit are studied about the different schema of water level of luhun reservoir in flood period and suggestion of water level in flood period is presented from the viewpoint of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention. The concrete contents are as follows:
(1) Research situation of the reservoir's risk analysis of flood-prevention at home and at abroad is summarized on the basis of consulting some literatures. The shortcomings of the reservoir's risk analysis of flood-prevention at present and the working pivots in later work are pointed out.
(2) Concept of the reservoir's risk and risk analysis of flood-prevention are illuminated. Criticized problem of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention, From concept of risk and risk analysis, the object of risk analysis is defined and the reservoir's risk analysis method and putting procedure into practice including risk identifies, risk estimate, risk evaluation, risk decision are put forward.
(3) The reservoir's risk analytic technology of flood-prevention is researched and Monte-Carlo imitative technique is analyzed. Imitative procedure of Monte-Carlo of multi-objective and multi-factor risk analysis is planned in light of specialty of reservoir's risk of flood-prevention. Imitative formula of major factor about reservoir's risk analysis of flood-prevention are given and Imitative procedure are designed. Monte-Carlo of multi-objective and multi-factor risk analysis technique and method are
brought forward.
(4) Risk objective of reservoir flood operation are certained and the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention are defined. So the conclusion that flood- typical choice, flood-forecast error, flood-operation delay are major risk factor are decided. Method of risk estimate about major risk factor are pointed out and formula and imitative procedure of major risk factor are designed.
(5) Based on Dynamic programming principle, Dynamic programming model for reservoir utilizable benefit is established. The put value method is introduced, which realize relation between water level, capacity of reservoir and discharge of reservoir in computer. The method is proved effective by studied luhun reservoir.
(6) Risk of the flood-prevention is analyzed according to the luhun reservoir of actual and Imitative procedure of Monte-Carlo of multi-objective and multi-factor is drewed up using Visual Basic. A lot of calculation of objective flood-prevention and utilizable are imitated for different water level in flood period used datum of luhun reservoir actual flood, reservoir characteristic, flood forecast and reservoir flood-prevention, as a result, different risk probability of flood-prevention and risk benefit are acquired in the every kind of condition. After all-round analyzing the results, suggestion of 316.5 water level in flood period for lunhun reservoir is presented from the viewpoint of the reservoir's risk of flood-prevention. Risk prob
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