电力市场环境下发电机组检修规划策略研究
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摘要
电力工业市场化改革，产生了追求效益最大化的发电厂商和负责系统运行的独立调度机构ISO(Independent system operator)等市场主体，机组检修规划模式应由以系统运行为中心转向在发电厂商效益和系统运行之间取得均衡，传统策略不再适用，迫切需要开发新的规划模型。本文作为国家重点基础研究发展计划专项资助项目“电力市场对电力系统运行可靠性的影响研究(2004CB217905)”和国家自然科学基金资助项目“输电系统的状态检修和减灾抢修策略研究(50807043)”的一部分，集中对市场环境下发电机组检修规划及相关问题进行了研究，主要内容和研究结论如下：
1．提出了基于浴盆曲线失效模式的发电机组故障率函数，相关参数通过历史运行数据采用最小二乘拟合方法得到，基于此可确定机组可用度并估计用于更新破损元件的期望费用支出。对比发电厂商和整个系统的机组检修安排可知，与以固定强迫停运率描述机组故障的运行-故障两状态模型相比，该模型更符合机组运行实际，反映了故障率和可用度随时间变化情况，可用于评估其突然故障对发电厂商或系统运行带来的风险损失。
2．提出了基于电价空间分布的分类预测模型和用于中长期电价模拟的复合预测模型，以分析规划期内的发电厂商成本/效益水平。前者根据影响电价分布的各市场因素，利用邻近点和支撑向量机技术对未来时段电价进行分类并分别预测，降低了电价对时间的依赖程度，为中长期预测提供了有效思路。同时，建立了结合ARMA-ARCH时间序列模型和跳跃模型的复合预测模型，分别用来描述电价变化的自回归特性、异方差特性和所对应的尖峰电价，算例表明其可有效描述电价变化，适用于电价中长期模拟。
3．机组检修规划模式与市场机制、系统容量充裕度密切相关。对于容量充裕度较低系统，提出了由ISO统一安排、以包括可靠性成本、发电成本、机组更新费用和检修费用在内的系统运行成本最小为目标的规划模型；对于容量充裕度较高、市场机制成熟系统，基于发电厂商和ISO的不同职责，提出了两步骤规划模式：首先各发电厂商根据所处市场环境及机组运行情况，以其效益最优确定检修计划并提交至ISO；然后由ISO协调各机组检修时段并合理分摊调整费用，确保系统运行可靠。
4．基于日前能量市场，构建了考虑机组故障和市场电价波动两种风险因素的发电厂商的最优规划模型，确保其规划期内的经济效益最优，并扩展至包括双边合同、日前市场和备用市场的复杂市场模式，考虑相关约束条件后，采用遗传算法和线性规划方法相结合思想求解。算例表明，所述模型可规避相关风险损失，确保发电厂商的效益最优。由于并未考虑供求平衡、备用等系统运行约束，所得检修时段应由ISO协调后才能赋予实施。
5．提出了基于运行成本分析的系统机组检修的迭代调整策略。各发电厂商将检修计划提交至ISO，ISO判断其是否满足预期要求并产生相应调整信号，若满足，则得到最终检修安排并将调整费用按负荷分摊至各用户，否则将调整信号传递至各发电厂商，并在其规划目标中以调整成本形式加以考虑，促使各发电厂商重新规划其检修时段。算例仿真结果表明，经过几次迭代即可获得满足双方要求的、可行的检修计划，在发电厂商经济效益和系统可靠、经济运行之间取得均衡，同时用户也乐意支付相应调整费用以获得更优的可靠性水平。
6．提出了基于市场竞争的发电机组检修协调机制。首先各发电厂商评估其机组在不同窗口检修的成本/效益，确定其检修竞价费用并提交至ISO；然后，根据各发电厂商的检修竞价费用，ISO确定其满意度并构建了包括机组竞价费用、满意度和系统充裕度在内的多目标协调规划模型；最后，根据“谁获益、谁支付”的市场原则，给出了基于最终满意度水平的费用分摊机制。算例仿真结果表明，该方法简单、透明、公平，保证了各时段的系统充裕度；同时各发电厂商或者获得满意的检修窗口，或者获得一定经济补偿，确保了检修计划的顺利实施。
发电机组检修安排，不仅影响各发电厂商的经济效益，也是确保系统安全运行和市场稳定的关键环节之一，本文对该问题进行了深入分析，提出了适合于不同市场发展阶段和不同系统充裕度水平的检修规划模式，在检修理论和市场实际运行上提出了一些新观点和模型，对于该问题的发展及进一步深入研究具有积极的参考意义。
The deregulation of power industry creates the independent market entities with differentobjectives, including the self-interested power producers to maximize their payoffs and theindependent system operator (ISO) to ensure the system reliability. Therefore, the traditionalsystem-centralized mechanism of unit maintenance scheduling (UMS) is not valued anymoreand appropriate decision-making models need to be built to strike a tradeoff between theproducers’ benefits and the system operation. As a part of “Research of operation andreliability of power systems in electricity market”, supported in part by the Special Fund ofthe National Priority Basic Research of China (2004CB217905) and in part by the NationalNature Science Foundation of China (50807043), a systematic study on the UMS and otherrelated aspects in the market environment are carried out in this dissertation. Major researchwork and contributions are summarized as follows.
1. Generating units may experience outage caused by unexpected failures, which would posea serious risk on the producers’ benefits and the system operation. Thus, a hazard function ispresented to characterize the bathtub-shaped failure curve of generating units, and the relatedparameters can be estimated from the historical data by the least-square-fitting method.Based on this, the unit availability and the expected renewal cost for replacing the damagedcomponents can be calculated. The UMS simulation results of generating company and thepower system shows that compared with the traditional up-down dual state model, theproposed one is more helpful to evaluate and avoid the related risk.
2. In power market, electricity price forecasting is an essential work for the UMS research. Aclassified forecasting model and a hybrid simulation model are presented. In the formermodel, based on the related market factors, the proximal point and support vector machinetechniques are used to classify the future prices, which are estimated respectively. Thismodel reduces the price dependence on time and provides effective information for themedium-and long-term price forecasting. On the other hand, the hybrid model is presentedfor medium-term price simulation and consists of one ARMA-ARCH model and one jumpmodel, which are used to characterize the autoregressive, heteroscedastic features and the price peaks. Simulation results show that it can simulate the electricity prices effectively.
3. The UMS mode relates to the market mechanism and the system adequacy. For the systemwith insufficient adequate capacity, UMS should be determined by the ISO via minimizingthe system operation costs of the reliability costs, the production costs, the units’ renewal andmaintenance costs. Whereas, for the system with sufficient adequate capacity and highlycompetitive market, the outage planning should be scheduled through two procedures. Firstly,individual producers plan their outage periods by maximizing their benefits and submit themaintenance windows to the ISO. Subsequently, the ISO coordinates the outage requests toformulate a system-wide plan and allocates the relevant costs for its non-profit characteristic.
4. In the market environment, power producers challenge some uncertain factors, includingunexpected unit failures and the fluctuating electricity prices. According to the pool-basedenergy market, the relative UMS models are proposed to optimize the producers’ payoffs,considering the two factors, respectively. They are both solved by the combination ofGenetic Algorithm and the linear programming methods. Furthermore, they are extended to ahybrid market including bilateral contracts, energy market and reserve market. Case studiesshow that they can maximize the producers’ benefits and reduce the relevant risk. Note that,the obtained outage planning is mainly analyzed from the perspective of power producersand should not be carried out without approval of the ISO.
5. Based on the system operation cost analysis, an iterative coordinated UMS model isproposed, thoroughly considering the impacts of unexpected unit failures on the producersand the system. Individual producers submit their outage schedules to the ISO, and the ISOdetermines whether they can ensure the system economic operation and synthesizes thecorrective signals. If not, the obtained signals would be sent to the related producers to directthem to reschedule their outage periods. Moreover, the corresponding reschedule costs areshared pro rata among power consumers. Case studies show that through several iterations, afeasible outage planning can be obtained to ensure the producers’ benefits as well as lowerdown the system operation costs.
6. According to the different functions of power producers and the ISO, a novelmarket-competitive UMS mechanism is presented. Firstly, power producers evaluate thebenefits/costs of its owned units for each available outage window and submit a set ofmaintenance bidding costs (MBCs) to the ISO. Subsequently, the ISO determines theirsatisfactory degrees (SDs) and coordinates the outage periods to attain a balance among theMBCs, SDs of generating units and the possible load curtailment. Thirdly, as a non-profitorganization, the ISO settles the final expenditure of individual producers in terms of theSD-based approach. Case studies show that the proposed scheme characterizes simplicity,fairness, efficiency and the competitive market rules, which can be adopted for a real-sizedsystem. Meanwhile, the producers obtain either the well-pleasing outage windows or the extra economic compensation, which ensure the smooth implementation of the outagescheduling.
As one of the important problems in power market, outage scheduling of generating unitsaffects not only the producers’ benefits, but also the system reliability and the marketstability. This dissertation carries out a systematic research on the UMS problem andpresents the proper models for different market mechanism. Several novel points and modelson the UMS theory and application are proposed. These researches may provide animportant reference for the development of the UMS theory.
1．提出了基于浴盆曲线失效模式的发电机组故障率函数，相关参数通过历史运行数据采用最小二乘拟合方法得到，基于此可确定机组可用度并估计用于更新破损元件的期望费用支出。对比发电厂商和整个系统的机组检修安排可知，与以固定强迫停运率描述机组故障的运行-故障两状态模型相比，该模型更符合机组运行实际，反映了故障率和可用度随时间变化情况，可用于评估其突然故障对发电厂商或系统运行带来的风险损失。
2．提出了基于电价空间分布的分类预测模型和用于中长期电价模拟的复合预测模型，以分析规划期内的发电厂商成本/效益水平。前者根据影响电价分布的各市场因素，利用邻近点和支撑向量机技术对未来时段电价进行分类并分别预测，降低了电价对时间的依赖程度，为中长期预测提供了有效思路。同时，建立了结合ARMA-ARCH时间序列模型和跳跃模型的复合预测模型，分别用来描述电价变化的自回归特性、异方差特性和所对应的尖峰电价，算例表明其可有效描述电价变化，适用于电价中长期模拟。
3．机组检修规划模式与市场机制、系统容量充裕度密切相关。对于容量充裕度较低系统，提出了由ISO统一安排、以包括可靠性成本、发电成本、机组更新费用和检修费用在内的系统运行成本最小为目标的规划模型；对于容量充裕度较高、市场机制成熟系统，基于发电厂商和ISO的不同职责，提出了两步骤规划模式：首先各发电厂商根据所处市场环境及机组运行情况，以其效益最优确定检修计划并提交至ISO；然后由ISO协调各机组检修时段并合理分摊调整费用，确保系统运行可靠。
4．基于日前能量市场，构建了考虑机组故障和市场电价波动两种风险因素的发电厂商的最优规划模型，确保其规划期内的经济效益最优，并扩展至包括双边合同、日前市场和备用市场的复杂市场模式，考虑相关约束条件后，采用遗传算法和线性规划方法相结合思想求解。算例表明，所述模型可规避相关风险损失，确保发电厂商的效益最优。由于并未考虑供求平衡、备用等系统运行约束，所得检修时段应由ISO协调后才能赋予实施。
5．提出了基于运行成本分析的系统机组检修的迭代调整策略。各发电厂商将检修计划提交至ISO，ISO判断其是否满足预期要求并产生相应调整信号，若满足，则得到最终检修安排并将调整费用按负荷分摊至各用户，否则将调整信号传递至各发电厂商，并在其规划目标中以调整成本形式加以考虑，促使各发电厂商重新规划其检修时段。算例仿真结果表明，经过几次迭代即可获得满足双方要求的、可行的检修计划，在发电厂商经济效益和系统可靠、经济运行之间取得均衡，同时用户也乐意支付相应调整费用以获得更优的可靠性水平。
6．提出了基于市场竞争的发电机组检修协调机制。首先各发电厂商评估其机组在不同窗口检修的成本/效益，确定其检修竞价费用并提交至ISO；然后，根据各发电厂商的检修竞价费用，ISO确定其满意度并构建了包括机组竞价费用、满意度和系统充裕度在内的多目标协调规划模型；最后，根据“谁获益、谁支付”的市场原则，给出了基于最终满意度水平的费用分摊机制。算例仿真结果表明，该方法简单、透明、公平，保证了各时段的系统充裕度；同时各发电厂商或者获得满意的检修窗口，或者获得一定经济补偿，确保了检修计划的顺利实施。
发电机组检修安排，不仅影响各发电厂商的经济效益，也是确保系统安全运行和市场稳定的关键环节之一，本文对该问题进行了深入分析，提出了适合于不同市场发展阶段和不同系统充裕度水平的检修规划模式，在检修理论和市场实际运行上提出了一些新观点和模型，对于该问题的发展及进一步深入研究具有积极的参考意义。
The deregulation of power industry creates the independent market entities with differentobjectives, including the self-interested power producers to maximize their payoffs and theindependent system operator (ISO) to ensure the system reliability. Therefore, the traditionalsystem-centralized mechanism of unit maintenance scheduling (UMS) is not valued anymoreand appropriate decision-making models need to be built to strike a tradeoff between theproducers’ benefits and the system operation. As a part of “Research of operation andreliability of power systems in electricity market”, supported in part by the Special Fund ofthe National Priority Basic Research of China (2004CB217905) and in part by the NationalNature Science Foundation of China (50807043), a systematic study on the UMS and otherrelated aspects in the market environment are carried out in this dissertation. Major researchwork and contributions are summarized as follows.
1. Generating units may experience outage caused by unexpected failures, which would posea serious risk on the producers’ benefits and the system operation. Thus, a hazard function ispresented to characterize the bathtub-shaped failure curve of generating units, and the relatedparameters can be estimated from the historical data by the least-square-fitting method.Based on this, the unit availability and the expected renewal cost for replacing the damagedcomponents can be calculated. The UMS simulation results of generating company and thepower system shows that compared with the traditional up-down dual state model, theproposed one is more helpful to evaluate and avoid the related risk.
2. In power market, electricity price forecasting is an essential work for the UMS research. Aclassified forecasting model and a hybrid simulation model are presented. In the formermodel, based on the related market factors, the proximal point and support vector machinetechniques are used to classify the future prices, which are estimated respectively. Thismodel reduces the price dependence on time and provides effective information for themedium-and long-term price forecasting. On the other hand, the hybrid model is presentedfor medium-term price simulation and consists of one ARMA-ARCH model and one jumpmodel, which are used to characterize the autoregressive, heteroscedastic features and the price peaks. Simulation results show that it can simulate the electricity prices effectively.
3. The UMS mode relates to the market mechanism and the system adequacy. For the systemwith insufficient adequate capacity, UMS should be determined by the ISO via minimizingthe system operation costs of the reliability costs, the production costs, the units’ renewal andmaintenance costs. Whereas, for the system with sufficient adequate capacity and highlycompetitive market, the outage planning should be scheduled through two procedures. Firstly,individual producers plan their outage periods by maximizing their benefits and submit themaintenance windows to the ISO. Subsequently, the ISO coordinates the outage requests toformulate a system-wide plan and allocates the relevant costs for its non-profit characteristic.
4. In the market environment, power producers challenge some uncertain factors, includingunexpected unit failures and the fluctuating electricity prices. According to the pool-basedenergy market, the relative UMS models are proposed to optimize the producers’ payoffs,considering the two factors, respectively. They are both solved by the combination ofGenetic Algorithm and the linear programming methods. Furthermore, they are extended to ahybrid market including bilateral contracts, energy market and reserve market. Case studiesshow that they can maximize the producers’ benefits and reduce the relevant risk. Note that,the obtained outage planning is mainly analyzed from the perspective of power producersand should not be carried out without approval of the ISO.
5. Based on the system operation cost analysis, an iterative coordinated UMS model isproposed, thoroughly considering the impacts of unexpected unit failures on the producersand the system. Individual producers submit their outage schedules to the ISO, and the ISOdetermines whether they can ensure the system economic operation and synthesizes thecorrective signals. If not, the obtained signals would be sent to the related producers to directthem to reschedule their outage periods. Moreover, the corresponding reschedule costs areshared pro rata among power consumers. Case studies show that through several iterations, afeasible outage planning can be obtained to ensure the producers’ benefits as well as lowerdown the system operation costs.
6. According to the different functions of power producers and the ISO, a novelmarket-competitive UMS mechanism is presented. Firstly, power producers evaluate thebenefits/costs of its owned units for each available outage window and submit a set ofmaintenance bidding costs (MBCs) to the ISO. Subsequently, the ISO determines theirsatisfactory degrees (SDs) and coordinates the outage periods to attain a balance among theMBCs, SDs of generating units and the possible load curtailment. Thirdly, as a non-profitorganization, the ISO settles the final expenditure of individual producers in terms of theSD-based approach. Case studies show that the proposed scheme characterizes simplicity,fairness, efficiency and the competitive market rules, which can be adopted for a real-sizedsystem. Meanwhile, the producers obtain either the well-pleasing outage windows or the extra economic compensation, which ensure the smooth implementation of the outagescheduling.
As one of the important problems in power market, outage scheduling of generating unitsaffects not only the producers’ benefits, but also the system reliability and the marketstability. This dissertation carries out a systematic research on the UMS problem andpresents the proper models for different market mechanism. Several novel points and modelson the UMS theory and application are proposed. These researches may provide animportant reference for the development of the UMS theory.
引文
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