基于区域差异的中国农村养老保障模式研究
|
摘要
人口老龄化趋势加快及传统养老保障模式功能弱化使我国农村养老保障问题日益凸显,农民养老问题的解决已成为我国社会主义新农村建设、和谐社会构建及全面小康社会建设的重要考量。多年来,各级政府一直在通过试点进行探索和完善,致力于找到一个相对稳定和“普适”的养老保障模式,以有效解决农村居民的养老问题,并不断缩小养老保障水平的区域差异。但从理论上看,短期内建立“普适性”的农村养老保障模式具有较大的挑战性。农村养老保障模式的构建与实施必须遵循经济与社会发展的规律,权衡各种制约因素的影响。区域差异的存在决定了农村养老保障模式的构建应有所侧重,在构建过程中应体现农村养老保障模式的区域适应性及农民养老保障模式选择意愿的差别。国内研究农村养老保障模式的文献较多,但基于区域差异视角对农村养老保障模式进行的研究较少。因此,在人口老龄化的背景下,从区域差异的视角研究农村养老保障模式,对于保障各区域农村老年人的基本生活、促进农村养老保障事业的协调发展具有重要的现实意义。
本文运用经济学、社会学、保险学等学科的相关理论,借鉴已有文献的研究成果,利用相关统计年鉴的宏观数据及实地调查的微观数据,采用主成分分析、聚类分析、因子分析、多元回归模型、有序Probit模型、保费估算模型等实证分析方法,从区域差异的视角对中国农村养老保障模式进行了系统研究。文章在界定区域差异及农村养老保障相关概念、总结相关理论的基础上,分析了我国农村养老保障及其模式的现状,并根据农村养老保障模式运行环境的不同进行了区域划分,依据区域划分的结果,定量分析了不同农村养老保障模式的区域适应性及不同区域农民养老保障模式的选择意愿,并以此为基础分区域构建了不同的农村养老保障模式,提出了本文的研究结论与展望。
本文的研究结论主要包括:(1)农村养老保障模式的运行环境具有较大的区域差异性。根据运行环境的差异,可将我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的农村具体划分为三种类型的区域。(2)农村养老保障模式的区域适应性存在差异。社会互济养老保障模式与家庭代际养老保障模式在三类区域的适应性都较强,个体自我养老保障模式在Ⅲ类区域的适应性较强,而在其他两类区域的适应性较弱。每一种农村养老保障模式的区域适应性受不同因素的影响。(3)农民养老保障模式选择意愿存在差别。虽然各区域农民都倾向于选择以社会互济养老保障模式为主导的、多渠道的养老资源供给模式,但意愿的强烈程度存在一定差别,且不同区域农民养老保障模式选择意愿受不同因素的影响。(4)我国当前建立一体化的养老保障模式仍存在一定困难,一体化的目标需要分阶段、分步骤地来实现。当前应立足我国国情,在区域差异的背景下分区域构建农村养老保障模式,并将分区域构建的模式作为现实模式,按照现实模式→过渡模式→目标模式的发展路径逐步转换与升级。
本文研究的创新点包括:(1)根据农村养老保障模式运行环境的不同,在建立指标体系的基础上运用聚类分析方法进行了区域的划分。(2)采用因子分析和多元回归方法对农村养老保障模式的区域适应性进行了分析,发现每一种养老保障模式的区域适应性受不同因素的影响,且在不同区域表现出不同的适应性。(3)运用有序Probit模型分别分析了三类区域农民的养老保障模式选择意愿,发现不同区域农民养老保障模式选择意愿存在一定差别,且受不同因素影响。(4)分区域构建了不同的农村养老保障模式,并对构建模式的保障效果进行了分析,对模式转换与升级的路径进行了探讨。
The rural areas in our country have to face with the severe challenge of how to provide resources for the local old people, with the aging problem becomes more serious and the traditional old-age security model’s function becomes much weak than before. The problem of rural old-age security has already become an important influential factor of constructing the new socialist countryside, building the harmonious and comprehensive well-off society. For many years, in order to effectively solve the problems of the rural old-age pension, and shrinking of urban-rural and regional differences, the Chinese government emphasized the importance of well-coordinated development and committed to find a way to solve the rural old-age security problem. Theoretically speaking, it is a complicated, difficult and long-term process to establish the universal old-age security model. The unified old-age security model is only a goal and direction temporarily, which conducts the endowment work, but not the task of this period. The construction of the rural old-age security models must follow the laws of economy and society, weighing the influences of the comprehensive factors. Regional differences determine that the construction of the rural old-age security models should has the stress, the construction of the rural old-age security models must consider the rural old-age security model’s adaptability and the farmers’intention of selection the rural old-age security models. There are more domestic research literatures about the rural old-age security models, but there are less from the angel of regional differences. Under the background of aging, analyzing the construction of the rural old-age security models from the regional differences has an important practical significance to ensure the basic life of the old people and promote the coordinate development of the old-age security undertakings.
This paper uses the theories of economics, sociology, insurance and the existing relevant references, choosing statistical yearbook macro data and micro survey data, selecting the Principal Analysis, Cluster Analysis, Multiple Regression Model, Ordered Probit Model, Premium Estimate Model to study the China’s old-age security model from the angel of regional differences. Bases on the related concepts of regional differences and rural old-age security models, this paper makes a division of the rural old-age security areas in China. According to the regional differences of the operating environment, the paper uses empirical analysis method examining the regional adaptability of the rural old-age security models and the farmers’selection intention of different old-age security models in different areas, and analysis the construction of the rural old-age security model bases on regional differences, and puts forward the study conclusions and prospect.
The main conclusions of this article includes: (1) the operation environment of the rural old-age security models have large regional differences. According to the operation environment, we can divide the 31 provinces (autonomous region, municipality) of China into three types of rural old-age security model areas. (2) The adaptability of different models has many differences in different areas, and in different areas, the adaptability of each model is influenced by different factors. (3) The peasants of each area intend to choose multi-channel support model to ensure their life, in which the social insurance model is the dominant model, but the extent of intention existing different degree, and the peasants’intention of choosing the old-age security models in different areas is influenced by different factors. (4) There are many difficulties in establishing an integration old-age security model in China at present. Based on the China’s national conditions and under the background of regional differences, we should establish different old-age security models in different areas, transforming and upgrading these models gradually, and finally establishing a nationwide integration old-age security model.
The innovation points of this article include: (1) According to the differences of operation environment of each rural old-age security model, the article uses the cluster analysis to divide the areas. (2) The article analysis the adaptability and the influencing factors of each model in different areas using methods of Factor Analysis and Multiple Regression. (3) Bases on the Ordered Probit Model, the paper analyses the selection intention and influencing factors in different areas. (4) Different old-age security models is established in different areas in the article, and the effect of each models is analyzed, and the paths to transform and upgrad the models are discussed in the article.
本文运用经济学、社会学、保险学等学科的相关理论,借鉴已有文献的研究成果,利用相关统计年鉴的宏观数据及实地调查的微观数据,采用主成分分析、聚类分析、因子分析、多元回归模型、有序Probit模型、保费估算模型等实证分析方法,从区域差异的视角对中国农村养老保障模式进行了系统研究。文章在界定区域差异及农村养老保障相关概念、总结相关理论的基础上,分析了我国农村养老保障及其模式的现状,并根据农村养老保障模式运行环境的不同进行了区域划分,依据区域划分的结果,定量分析了不同农村养老保障模式的区域适应性及不同区域农民养老保障模式的选择意愿,并以此为基础分区域构建了不同的农村养老保障模式,提出了本文的研究结论与展望。
本文的研究结论主要包括:(1)农村养老保障模式的运行环境具有较大的区域差异性。根据运行环境的差异,可将我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的农村具体划分为三种类型的区域。(2)农村养老保障模式的区域适应性存在差异。社会互济养老保障模式与家庭代际养老保障模式在三类区域的适应性都较强,个体自我养老保障模式在Ⅲ类区域的适应性较强,而在其他两类区域的适应性较弱。每一种农村养老保障模式的区域适应性受不同因素的影响。(3)农民养老保障模式选择意愿存在差别。虽然各区域农民都倾向于选择以社会互济养老保障模式为主导的、多渠道的养老资源供给模式,但意愿的强烈程度存在一定差别,且不同区域农民养老保障模式选择意愿受不同因素的影响。(4)我国当前建立一体化的养老保障模式仍存在一定困难,一体化的目标需要分阶段、分步骤地来实现。当前应立足我国国情,在区域差异的背景下分区域构建农村养老保障模式,并将分区域构建的模式作为现实模式,按照现实模式→过渡模式→目标模式的发展路径逐步转换与升级。
本文研究的创新点包括:(1)根据农村养老保障模式运行环境的不同,在建立指标体系的基础上运用聚类分析方法进行了区域的划分。(2)采用因子分析和多元回归方法对农村养老保障模式的区域适应性进行了分析,发现每一种养老保障模式的区域适应性受不同因素的影响,且在不同区域表现出不同的适应性。(3)运用有序Probit模型分别分析了三类区域农民的养老保障模式选择意愿,发现不同区域农民养老保障模式选择意愿存在一定差别,且受不同因素影响。(4)分区域构建了不同的农村养老保障模式,并对构建模式的保障效果进行了分析,对模式转换与升级的路径进行了探讨。
The rural areas in our country have to face with the severe challenge of how to provide resources for the local old people, with the aging problem becomes more serious and the traditional old-age security model’s function becomes much weak than before. The problem of rural old-age security has already become an important influential factor of constructing the new socialist countryside, building the harmonious and comprehensive well-off society. For many years, in order to effectively solve the problems of the rural old-age pension, and shrinking of urban-rural and regional differences, the Chinese government emphasized the importance of well-coordinated development and committed to find a way to solve the rural old-age security problem. Theoretically speaking, it is a complicated, difficult and long-term process to establish the universal old-age security model. The unified old-age security model is only a goal and direction temporarily, which conducts the endowment work, but not the task of this period. The construction of the rural old-age security models must follow the laws of economy and society, weighing the influences of the comprehensive factors. Regional differences determine that the construction of the rural old-age security models should has the stress, the construction of the rural old-age security models must consider the rural old-age security model’s adaptability and the farmers’intention of selection the rural old-age security models. There are more domestic research literatures about the rural old-age security models, but there are less from the angel of regional differences. Under the background of aging, analyzing the construction of the rural old-age security models from the regional differences has an important practical significance to ensure the basic life of the old people and promote the coordinate development of the old-age security undertakings.
This paper uses the theories of economics, sociology, insurance and the existing relevant references, choosing statistical yearbook macro data and micro survey data, selecting the Principal Analysis, Cluster Analysis, Multiple Regression Model, Ordered Probit Model, Premium Estimate Model to study the China’s old-age security model from the angel of regional differences. Bases on the related concepts of regional differences and rural old-age security models, this paper makes a division of the rural old-age security areas in China. According to the regional differences of the operating environment, the paper uses empirical analysis method examining the regional adaptability of the rural old-age security models and the farmers’selection intention of different old-age security models in different areas, and analysis the construction of the rural old-age security model bases on regional differences, and puts forward the study conclusions and prospect.
The main conclusions of this article includes: (1) the operation environment of the rural old-age security models have large regional differences. According to the operation environment, we can divide the 31 provinces (autonomous region, municipality) of China into three types of rural old-age security model areas. (2) The adaptability of different models has many differences in different areas, and in different areas, the adaptability of each model is influenced by different factors. (3) The peasants of each area intend to choose multi-channel support model to ensure their life, in which the social insurance model is the dominant model, but the extent of intention existing different degree, and the peasants’intention of choosing the old-age security models in different areas is influenced by different factors. (4) There are many difficulties in establishing an integration old-age security model in China at present. Based on the China’s national conditions and under the background of regional differences, we should establish different old-age security models in different areas, transforming and upgrading these models gradually, and finally establishing a nationwide integration old-age security model.
The innovation points of this article include: (1) According to the differences of operation environment of each rural old-age security model, the article uses the cluster analysis to divide the areas. (2) The article analysis the adaptability and the influencing factors of each model in different areas using methods of Factor Analysis and Multiple Regression. (3) Bases on the Ordered Probit Model, the paper analyses the selection intention and influencing factors in different areas. (4) Different old-age security models is established in different areas in the article, and the effect of each models is analyzed, and the paths to transform and upgrad the models are discussed in the article.
引文
①数据来源:国家统计局《中国人口与就业统计年鉴2009》
①《中共中央关于推进农村改革发展若干重大问题的决定》。
①《青岛经济技术开发区、青岛市黄岛区农村社会养老保险暂行办法》。
①周国伟.2001.中国农村养老状况及其区域比较.西北人口,(1):21-23
①此表参见:杨健,张金峰.2009.中国农村养老保障模式区域分异研究.兰州学刊,(2):144
①Yoram Ben-Porath. Individuals, Families and Income Distribution, Population and Development Review: Income Distribution and the Family. A Supplement to Vol.8, based on IUSSP Seminars.
①欧盟13个国家建立农村社会养老保险制度时以美元为标准计算的人均GDP在1445-9580元之间,平均为6354.2元。(卢海元,2003)
①数据根据国家统计局人口和就业统计司《中国人口与就业统计年鉴2009》计算所得。
②根据国家统计局《中国统计年鉴2010》中数据计算所得。
安增龙,董银果. 2002.论中国农村养老模式选择.西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2(4):59-63
安增龙. 2004.中国农村社会养老保险制度研究. [博士学位论文].西北农林科技大学:7,103-104
白雪梅. 1998.中国区域经济发展的比较研究.北京:中国财政经济出版社:40
柏萍. 1999.我国城市养老方式及其对策探讨.广东社会科学,(5):120-125
曹琦. 2002.论老年自养在我国城市养老模式中的作用.西北人口,(2):6-8
陈赛权. 2000.中国养老模式研究综述.人口学刊,(3):30-36
陈桂华,毛翠英. 2005.德、日农民养老保险制度的比较与借鉴.理论探讨,(1):68
陈佳贵. 2001.中国社会保障发展报告(1997—2001).北京:社会科学文献出版社
陈银娥,王亚柯. 2002.内敛型养老模式.汉江论坛,(11):40-42
陈栋生. 1993.区域经济学.郑州:河南人民出版社:1-5
陈彩霞. 2000.经济独立才是农村老年人晚年幸福的首要条件.人口学刊,(2):53-54
陈之楚.2008.中国社会保障制度研究.[博士毕业论文].天津财经大学,20-21
崔功豪. 1999.区域分析与规划.北京:高等教育出版社:1-10
丁润萍. 2005.农村养老保障体系的支撑条件分析.理论探索,(4):91-93
邓大松,刘昌平.2007.新农村社会保障体系研究.北京:人民出版社:152-154
方创琳. 2002.区域发展战略论.北京:科学出版社:1-6
费尔德斯坦,利伯曼. 2006.实现中国养老保险体制的潜力.中国发展观察,(4):31-33
傅桦. 2000.社会养老模式及其服务设施.首都师范大学学报(自然科学版),21(2):75-82
金相郁. 2004.中国区域划分的层次聚类分析.城市规划汇刊,(2):23-28
高洪深. 2002.区域经济学.北京:中国人民大学出版社:3-12
高爱华.2003.家庭养老:目前我国农村养老模式的现实选择.河南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2(30):36-38
高和荣. 2002.家庭养老概念再探析.西北人口,(4):45-47
郭继. 2002.农村发达地区中青年女性的养老意愿与养老方式—以浙江省为例.人口与经济, (6):32-37
郭庆旺,贾俊雪,赵志耘. 2007.中国传统文化信念、人力资本积累与家庭养老保障机制.经济研究,(8):58-72
韩丽,陈书伟. 2008.非均衡背景下我国农村养老保障体系构建.铜陵职业技术学院学报,(3):29-31
哈特向. 1959.地理学性质的透视.第一版.黎樵译.北京:商务印书馆:129-130
郝寿义,安虎森. 2001.区域经济学.北京:经济科学出版社:1-3
胡豹,卫新. 2006.国外农村社会养老保障的实践比较与启示.商业研究,(7):52-55
胡佛. 1975.区域经济学导论.第二版.王翼龙译. 1990.上海:上海远东出版社:172-188
科林吉列恩等.2002.全球养老保障—改革与发展.杨燕绥译.2002.北京:中国劳动社会保障出版社:3-15
孔祥智,涂圣伟. 2007.我国现阶段农民养老意愿探讨—基于福建省永安、邵武、光泽三县(市)抽样调查的实证研究.中国人民大学学报, (3):71-77
孔祥建. 2007.现阶段多元化农村养老保障体系的框架构思.商场现代化,(6):220-221
李建新,于学军,王广州,刘鸿燕. 2004.中国农村养老意愿和养老方式的研究.人口与经济, (5):7-12
李迎生. 2005.立足现实、面向未来:农村养老保障制度改革的“过渡模式”设计.毛泽东、邓小平理论研究,(10):42-47
李迎生. 2002.区域经济发展不平衡与农村养老保障制度的改革.宁夏社会科学,(1):57-61
李崇淮,黄宪,江春.1998.西方货币银行学.北京:中国金融出版社,377
林永生. 2007.我国农村社会养老保险制度:过去、现在和未来.中国社会保险学会网[2009-03-22]
林相森,艾春荣.2008.我国居民医疗需求影响因素的实证分析—有序Probit模型的半参数估计.统计研究,(11):40-45
刘峰. 2007.农村养老保障制度建设路径探索.求索,(2):44-45
刘晓敬. 2004.论农村养老保障的发展与对策.人口与市场分析,(1):15-16
刘汉屏. 2006.论分层分类式农村养老保险制度.中央财经大学学报,(10):20-23
刘世锦. 2008-11-17.构建城乡统一的基本养老保险制度.光明日报,第10版面
刘翠霄. 2001.中国农民的社会保障问题.法学研究,(6):67-83
刘庚长. 1999.我国农村家庭养老存在的基础与转变条件.人口研究,(5):41-42
卢海元. 2003.中国农村养老保障制度建立条件分析.经济学家,(5):36-41
卢华东. 2005.建构多元化农村养老保障体系.统计与决策,(7):59-61
吕红平,康和平. 2000.中国人口老龄化与可持续发展.中国软科学,(7):9-12
穆光宗. 2000.中国传统养老方式的变革和展望.中国人民大学学报,(5):39-44
穆光宗. 1999.我国农村家庭养老问题的理论分析.社会科学,(12):50-54
诺思. 1990.制度、制度变迁与经济绩效.第一版.刘瑞华译. 1994.上海:人民出版社:3-12
剻小明.2007.我国农村社会救助发展中的国家责任研究.[博士毕业论文].首都经济贸易大学:1
屈小博,霍学喜. 2007.交易成本对农户农产品销售行为的影响—基于陕西省6个县27个村果农调查数据的分析.中国农村经济, (8):35-45
阮荣平,郑凤田. 2010.我国农村养老模式的绩效研究.中国人口资源与环境,(2):79-84
沈苏燕,李放,谢勇. 2009.中青年农民养老意愿及影响因素分析—基于南京五县区的调查数据.农业经济问题,(11):84-89
施晓琳. 2006.论非均衡农村养老保障制度的建立.理论探,(6):99-101
石秀和. 2006.中国农村社会保障问题研究.北京:人民出版社:104-144
宋士云. 2003. 1949-1978年中国农村社会保障制度透视.中国经济史研究,(3):25-34
苏宝忠. 2009.国农村养老问题研究.北京:清华大学出版社:4-76
万克德. 2002.浅谈农村社会养老保险中的违规操作现象.西北人口,(4):42-52
王平权. 2002.农村社会养老保障模式选择及运作思路.人口研究,(11):38-41
王永玲. 1999.中国农村养老方式的合理取向.理论学刊,(2):91-93
王树和.2006转型期中国农村养老保障问题研究.[博士学位论文].山东农业大学,30
汪沅. 2008.中国农村养老保障制度改革研究. [博士学位论文].东北师范大学,17-19
卫龙宝,储雪玲,王恒彦. 2008.我国城乡老年人口生活质量比较研究.浙江大学学报,(6):65-74
魏建,宋微. 2007.影响我国农民参加农村社会养老保险的因素及对策研究.理论学,(4):71-74
魏后凯. 2006.现代区域经济学.北京:经济管理出版社:1
吴罗发. 2008.中部地区农民社会养老保险参与意愿分析.农业经济问题,(4):65-68
吴海盛. 2009.农村老人生活质量现状及影响因素分析—基于江苏省农户微观数据的分析.农业经济问题,(10):44-50
吴海盛,江巍.2008.中青年农民养老模式选择意愿的实证分析—以江苏省为例.中国农村经济,(11):54-66
吴殿廷. 2003.区域经济学.北京:科学出版社:7
武深树,邓真惠. 2003.构建非均衡的农村养老保障制度.当代财经,(1):25-30
熊波,林丛. 2009.农村居民养老意愿的影响因素分析—基于武汉市江夏区的实证研究.西北人口, (3):101-105
熊巍俊. 1994.论我国人口老龄化下的社会养老问题.人口学刊,(4):32
林相森,艾春荣. 2008.我国居民医疗需求影响因素的实证分析—有序probit模型的半参数估计.统计研究, (11):40-45
谢东梅.2009.农村最低生活保障制度分配效果与瞄准效率研究.[博士学位论文].福建农林大学,12-13
许照红. 2007.我国农村养老模式的历史变革与现实选择.特区经济,(6):114-115
杨翠迎. 2005.中国农村养老保障何去何从.商业研究,(8):167-169
杨翠迎. 2003.中国农村社会保障制度研究.中国农业出版社:2,38,134-136,149,182
杨健,张金峰. 2009.中国农村养老保障模式区域分异研究.兰州学刊,(2):144,145-147
杨惠芳.2008.城乡社会养老保障一体化的实践与探索—以浙江省嘉兴市为例.农业经济问题,(5):83-87
阳义南. 2004.四支柱模式:农村养老保障体系研究.农业经济,(4):19-21
姚远. 2001.中国家庭养老研究.北京:中国人口出版社:26-27
叶依广. 2006.区域经济学.北京:中国农业出版社:2-5
雍岚,孙博,张冬敏.2007.西部地区从业农民工社会养老保险需求的影响因素分析.西北人口, (6):25-33
约翰逊. 1999.中国农村老年人的社会保障.徐莉译. 1999.中国人口科学,(5):1-10
袁春瑛,薛兴利,范毅. 2002.现阶段我国农村养老保障的理性选择.农业现代化研究,11(23):430-433
张同利,王坤. 1996.我国农村社会保障制度的分析和设想.农业经济问题,(7):51-53
张仕平,刘丽华. 2000.建国以来农村老年保障的历史沿革、特点及成因.人口学刊,(5):35-39
张可云. 2001.区域大战与区域经济关系.民主与建设出版社:163-171
张敦富. 1999.区域经济学原理.中国轻工业出版社:2-4
赵忠. 2006.我国农村人口的健康状况及影响因素.管理世界,(3):78-85
郑秉文. 2005.社会保障体制改革攻坚.北京:中国水利水电出版社:167
郑秉文. 2008-11-17.建立统—基本养老保险制度的可行性.光明日报,第10版面
周莹. 2006.中国农村养老保障制度的路径选择研究. [博士学位论文].复旦大学:8
周莹、梁鸿. 2006.中国农村传统家庭养老保障模式不可持续性研究.经济体制改革,(5): 107-110
周绍斌. 2001.论我国农村养老的模式选择.江西社会科学,(6):178-180
邹德新. 2006.农村养老保险制度的发展与完善.农业经济,(11):38-39
郅玉玲. 2002.江南三镇农村老人的养老状况及意愿比较.西北人口,(2):14-16
朱勇. 1998.社会保障理论与政策研究的集大成之作—评《论中国特色的社会保障道路》.武汉大学学报,(2):128-129
赵忠.我国农村人口的健康状况及影响因素.管理世界,2006(3):78-85
朱捷. 2009.我国外商直接投资地区差异规律研究.[博士学位论文].西北农林科技大学:33
朱庆芳,吴寒光. 2001.社会指标体系.北京:中国社会科学出版社:130
Ajzen I, Madden J T. 1986. Prediction of goal-related behavior: attitudes, intentions, and perceived behavioral control. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 22(5): 453-474
Ajzen I. 1985. From intentions to actions: a theory of planned behavior, action-control: from cognition tobehavior. Heidelberg: Springer, 8:11-39
Anita Ching Ying Ng, David R Phillips,William Keng-mun Lee.(2002.Persistence and challenges to filial piety and informal support of older persons inmodern Chinese society:a cases study in Tuen Mun.Hong Kong.Journal of Aging Studies,16:135-153
Buiter Willem H, Kerneth M. Kletzer. 1995.Capital mobility,fiscal policy and growth under self-financiy of human capital formation.Canadia Journal of Economics,28:s163-s194
Bellettini Giokgio and Carlotta Berti Ceron.1999.Is social security realy bad for growth? Review of Economic Dynamics,2(4):796-819
Barr Nicholas .2000.ReformingPensions:Myths,truths,and policy choices.IMFWorking Paper:1-57
Brunner J K.1996.Transition from a Pay-as-you-go to a fully funded pension system:the case of differing individuals and intragenerational fairness.Journal of Public Economics,60:131-146.
Casamatta Georges, Cremer Helmuth and Pestieau Pierre.2000.Political sustainability and the design of social insurance.Journal of Public Economics,75:341-64
Echevarria Cruz A and Iza Amaia. 2006.Life expectancy,human capital,social security and growth. Journal of Public Economics,90(12):2323-2349
Danial K Andrews. Old age security for the American farm population.Journal of farm economicx.(27):634-648
Diamond P A.1965.National Debt in a neoclassical growth model.American Economic Review, 55 (5):1126-1150
Doncquier F, Paddison O.2003.Growth and equality effects of pension plans.Journal of Macroeconomics, (25):87-102
Estelle James.2001.How can China Solve its old age security problem?The interaction between Pension,SOE and Financial Market Reform.Prepared for Conference of Financial Sector Reform in China,Harward University,1-28
Ehrlich I, Jinyong Kim.2005.Social security,demographic trends, and economic growth: theory and evidence from the international experience.NBER Working Paper,NO.11121
Elisabeth Wallace.Old age security in Canada:changing attitudes.http://jstor.org/13813.[2010-5-13]
Feldstein Martin.1985. The optimal level of social security benefits.Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100( 2) :303-319
Feldstein M S and Samwick A A.1996.The transition path in privatizing social security. NBER WorkingPaper,11: 5761
Feldstein Martin.1999.Social security pension reform in China.China Economic Review, 10(2):99-107
Jayachandran N. 1996.A probit latent variable model of nutrition information and dietary fiber intake. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, (78): 628-639
Hindriks Jean and De Donder Philippe.2003.The politics of redistributive social insurance. Journal of Public Economics,87(12):2639-2660
Kemnitz Alexander and Berthold Wigger.2000.Growth and social security: the role of human capital. European Journal of Politic Economy,16(4): 673-683
Kotlikoff L J.1996.Privatizing social security: How it works and why it matters.Tax Policy and the Economy,10:1-32
Kaganovich Michael and Tzhak Zicha.1999.Education,social security and growth.Journal of PublicEconomics, 71(2):289-309
Perloff E S Dunn,E E Lampard and R F Muth.1960.Rrgions,resources and economic growth.Baltimore: John Hopkins Press,4
Richardson H W.1973.Regional growth theory.London:Macmillan,6
Sala-i-Martin Xavier. 1996. A positive theory of social security.Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2):277-304
Samuelson P A.1975. Optimum social security in a life-cycle growth model. International Economic Review, 16(3):539-544
Stiglitz J E and Orszag P R.1999. Rethinking pension reform: ten myths about social security systems.Paper presented at World Bankconference on New Ideas aboutOld Age Security,9:14-15
Shih-Jiunn Shi.2006.Left to market and family– again? Ideas and the development of the rural pension policy in China. Social Policy and Administration, 40 (7): 791-806
Siebert H.1969.Regional economic growth:theory and policy. Scranton:Interational Book Company,4-18
Tabellini Guido.2000.A positive theory of social security. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 102(3): 523-545
Takayama Noriyuki.2002.Pension reform of PRC:incentives,goverance and policy options.A paper presented at the ADB Institute 5th anniversary conference of challenges and New agenda for PRC,5-6
World Bank.1994.Adverting the old crisis:policies to protect the old and promote growth.Oxford: Oxford University Press,17-18
Word Bank.1997.Old age security:Pension reform in China 2020 Series.Washing D C,3-5
①《中共中央关于推进农村改革发展若干重大问题的决定》。
①《青岛经济技术开发区、青岛市黄岛区农村社会养老保险暂行办法》。
①周国伟.2001.中国农村养老状况及其区域比较.西北人口,(1):21-23
①此表参见:杨健,张金峰.2009.中国农村养老保障模式区域分异研究.兰州学刊,(2):144
①Yoram Ben-Porath. Individuals, Families and Income Distribution, Population and Development Review: Income Distribution and the Family. A Supplement to Vol.8, based on IUSSP Seminars.
①欧盟13个国家建立农村社会养老保险制度时以美元为标准计算的人均GDP在1445-9580元之间,平均为6354.2元。(卢海元,2003)
①数据根据国家统计局人口和就业统计司《中国人口与就业统计年鉴2009》计算所得。
②根据国家统计局《中国统计年鉴2010》中数据计算所得。
安增龙,董银果. 2002.论中国农村养老模式选择.西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2(4):59-63
安增龙. 2004.中国农村社会养老保险制度研究. [博士学位论文].西北农林科技大学:7,103-104
白雪梅. 1998.中国区域经济发展的比较研究.北京:中国财政经济出版社:40
柏萍. 1999.我国城市养老方式及其对策探讨.广东社会科学,(5):120-125
曹琦. 2002.论老年自养在我国城市养老模式中的作用.西北人口,(2):6-8
陈赛权. 2000.中国养老模式研究综述.人口学刊,(3):30-36
陈桂华,毛翠英. 2005.德、日农民养老保险制度的比较与借鉴.理论探讨,(1):68
陈佳贵. 2001.中国社会保障发展报告(1997—2001).北京:社会科学文献出版社
陈银娥,王亚柯. 2002.内敛型养老模式.汉江论坛,(11):40-42
陈栋生. 1993.区域经济学.郑州:河南人民出版社:1-5
陈彩霞. 2000.经济独立才是农村老年人晚年幸福的首要条件.人口学刊,(2):53-54
陈之楚.2008.中国社会保障制度研究.[博士毕业论文].天津财经大学,20-21
崔功豪. 1999.区域分析与规划.北京:高等教育出版社:1-10
丁润萍. 2005.农村养老保障体系的支撑条件分析.理论探索,(4):91-93
邓大松,刘昌平.2007.新农村社会保障体系研究.北京:人民出版社:152-154
方创琳. 2002.区域发展战略论.北京:科学出版社:1-6
费尔德斯坦,利伯曼. 2006.实现中国养老保险体制的潜力.中国发展观察,(4):31-33
傅桦. 2000.社会养老模式及其服务设施.首都师范大学学报(自然科学版),21(2):75-82
金相郁. 2004.中国区域划分的层次聚类分析.城市规划汇刊,(2):23-28
高洪深. 2002.区域经济学.北京:中国人民大学出版社:3-12
高爱华.2003.家庭养老:目前我国农村养老模式的现实选择.河南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2(30):36-38
高和荣. 2002.家庭养老概念再探析.西北人口,(4):45-47
郭继. 2002.农村发达地区中青年女性的养老意愿与养老方式—以浙江省为例.人口与经济, (6):32-37
郭庆旺,贾俊雪,赵志耘. 2007.中国传统文化信念、人力资本积累与家庭养老保障机制.经济研究,(8):58-72
韩丽,陈书伟. 2008.非均衡背景下我国农村养老保障体系构建.铜陵职业技术学院学报,(3):29-31
哈特向. 1959.地理学性质的透视.第一版.黎樵译.北京:商务印书馆:129-130
郝寿义,安虎森. 2001.区域经济学.北京:经济科学出版社:1-3
胡豹,卫新. 2006.国外农村社会养老保障的实践比较与启示.商业研究,(7):52-55
胡佛. 1975.区域经济学导论.第二版.王翼龙译. 1990.上海:上海远东出版社:172-188
科林吉列恩等.2002.全球养老保障—改革与发展.杨燕绥译.2002.北京:中国劳动社会保障出版社:3-15
孔祥智,涂圣伟. 2007.我国现阶段农民养老意愿探讨—基于福建省永安、邵武、光泽三县(市)抽样调查的实证研究.中国人民大学学报, (3):71-77
孔祥建. 2007.现阶段多元化农村养老保障体系的框架构思.商场现代化,(6):220-221
李建新,于学军,王广州,刘鸿燕. 2004.中国农村养老意愿和养老方式的研究.人口与经济, (5):7-12
李迎生. 2005.立足现实、面向未来:农村养老保障制度改革的“过渡模式”设计.毛泽东、邓小平理论研究,(10):42-47
李迎生. 2002.区域经济发展不平衡与农村养老保障制度的改革.宁夏社会科学,(1):57-61
李崇淮,黄宪,江春.1998.西方货币银行学.北京:中国金融出版社,377
林永生. 2007.我国农村社会养老保险制度:过去、现在和未来.中国社会保险学会网[2009-03-22]
林相森,艾春荣.2008.我国居民医疗需求影响因素的实证分析—有序Probit模型的半参数估计.统计研究,(11):40-45
刘峰. 2007.农村养老保障制度建设路径探索.求索,(2):44-45
刘晓敬. 2004.论农村养老保障的发展与对策.人口与市场分析,(1):15-16
刘汉屏. 2006.论分层分类式农村养老保险制度.中央财经大学学报,(10):20-23
刘世锦. 2008-11-17.构建城乡统一的基本养老保险制度.光明日报,第10版面
刘翠霄. 2001.中国农民的社会保障问题.法学研究,(6):67-83
刘庚长. 1999.我国农村家庭养老存在的基础与转变条件.人口研究,(5):41-42
卢海元. 2003.中国农村养老保障制度建立条件分析.经济学家,(5):36-41
卢华东. 2005.建构多元化农村养老保障体系.统计与决策,(7):59-61
吕红平,康和平. 2000.中国人口老龄化与可持续发展.中国软科学,(7):9-12
穆光宗. 2000.中国传统养老方式的变革和展望.中国人民大学学报,(5):39-44
穆光宗. 1999.我国农村家庭养老问题的理论分析.社会科学,(12):50-54
诺思. 1990.制度、制度变迁与经济绩效.第一版.刘瑞华译. 1994.上海:人民出版社:3-12
剻小明.2007.我国农村社会救助发展中的国家责任研究.[博士毕业论文].首都经济贸易大学:1
屈小博,霍学喜. 2007.交易成本对农户农产品销售行为的影响—基于陕西省6个县27个村果农调查数据的分析.中国农村经济, (8):35-45
阮荣平,郑凤田. 2010.我国农村养老模式的绩效研究.中国人口资源与环境,(2):79-84
沈苏燕,李放,谢勇. 2009.中青年农民养老意愿及影响因素分析—基于南京五县区的调查数据.农业经济问题,(11):84-89
施晓琳. 2006.论非均衡农村养老保障制度的建立.理论探,(6):99-101
石秀和. 2006.中国农村社会保障问题研究.北京:人民出版社:104-144
宋士云. 2003. 1949-1978年中国农村社会保障制度透视.中国经济史研究,(3):25-34
苏宝忠. 2009.国农村养老问题研究.北京:清华大学出版社:4-76
万克德. 2002.浅谈农村社会养老保险中的违规操作现象.西北人口,(4):42-52
王平权. 2002.农村社会养老保障模式选择及运作思路.人口研究,(11):38-41
王永玲. 1999.中国农村养老方式的合理取向.理论学刊,(2):91-93
王树和.2006转型期中国农村养老保障问题研究.[博士学位论文].山东农业大学,30
汪沅. 2008.中国农村养老保障制度改革研究. [博士学位论文].东北师范大学,17-19
卫龙宝,储雪玲,王恒彦. 2008.我国城乡老年人口生活质量比较研究.浙江大学学报,(6):65-74
魏建,宋微. 2007.影响我国农民参加农村社会养老保险的因素及对策研究.理论学,(4):71-74
魏后凯. 2006.现代区域经济学.北京:经济管理出版社:1
吴罗发. 2008.中部地区农民社会养老保险参与意愿分析.农业经济问题,(4):65-68
吴海盛. 2009.农村老人生活质量现状及影响因素分析—基于江苏省农户微观数据的分析.农业经济问题,(10):44-50
吴海盛,江巍.2008.中青年农民养老模式选择意愿的实证分析—以江苏省为例.中国农村经济,(11):54-66
吴殿廷. 2003.区域经济学.北京:科学出版社:7
武深树,邓真惠. 2003.构建非均衡的农村养老保障制度.当代财经,(1):25-30
熊波,林丛. 2009.农村居民养老意愿的影响因素分析—基于武汉市江夏区的实证研究.西北人口, (3):101-105
熊巍俊. 1994.论我国人口老龄化下的社会养老问题.人口学刊,(4):32
林相森,艾春荣. 2008.我国居民医疗需求影响因素的实证分析—有序probit模型的半参数估计.统计研究, (11):40-45
谢东梅.2009.农村最低生活保障制度分配效果与瞄准效率研究.[博士学位论文].福建农林大学,12-13
许照红. 2007.我国农村养老模式的历史变革与现实选择.特区经济,(6):114-115
杨翠迎. 2005.中国农村养老保障何去何从.商业研究,(8):167-169
杨翠迎. 2003.中国农村社会保障制度研究.中国农业出版社:2,38,134-136,149,182
杨健,张金峰. 2009.中国农村养老保障模式区域分异研究.兰州学刊,(2):144,145-147
杨惠芳.2008.城乡社会养老保障一体化的实践与探索—以浙江省嘉兴市为例.农业经济问题,(5):83-87
阳义南. 2004.四支柱模式:农村养老保障体系研究.农业经济,(4):19-21
姚远. 2001.中国家庭养老研究.北京:中国人口出版社:26-27
叶依广. 2006.区域经济学.北京:中国农业出版社:2-5
雍岚,孙博,张冬敏.2007.西部地区从业农民工社会养老保险需求的影响因素分析.西北人口, (6):25-33
约翰逊. 1999.中国农村老年人的社会保障.徐莉译. 1999.中国人口科学,(5):1-10
袁春瑛,薛兴利,范毅. 2002.现阶段我国农村养老保障的理性选择.农业现代化研究,11(23):430-433
张同利,王坤. 1996.我国农村社会保障制度的分析和设想.农业经济问题,(7):51-53
张仕平,刘丽华. 2000.建国以来农村老年保障的历史沿革、特点及成因.人口学刊,(5):35-39
张可云. 2001.区域大战与区域经济关系.民主与建设出版社:163-171
张敦富. 1999.区域经济学原理.中国轻工业出版社:2-4
赵忠. 2006.我国农村人口的健康状况及影响因素.管理世界,(3):78-85
郑秉文. 2005.社会保障体制改革攻坚.北京:中国水利水电出版社:167
郑秉文. 2008-11-17.建立统—基本养老保险制度的可行性.光明日报,第10版面
周莹. 2006.中国农村养老保障制度的路径选择研究. [博士学位论文].复旦大学:8
周莹、梁鸿. 2006.中国农村传统家庭养老保障模式不可持续性研究.经济体制改革,(5): 107-110
周绍斌. 2001.论我国农村养老的模式选择.江西社会科学,(6):178-180
邹德新. 2006.农村养老保险制度的发展与完善.农业经济,(11):38-39
郅玉玲. 2002.江南三镇农村老人的养老状况及意愿比较.西北人口,(2):14-16
朱勇. 1998.社会保障理论与政策研究的集大成之作—评《论中国特色的社会保障道路》.武汉大学学报,(2):128-129
赵忠.我国农村人口的健康状况及影响因素.管理世界,2006(3):78-85
朱捷. 2009.我国外商直接投资地区差异规律研究.[博士学位论文].西北农林科技大学:33
朱庆芳,吴寒光. 2001.社会指标体系.北京:中国社会科学出版社:130
Ajzen I, Madden J T. 1986. Prediction of goal-related behavior: attitudes, intentions, and perceived behavioral control. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 22(5): 453-474
Ajzen I. 1985. From intentions to actions: a theory of planned behavior, action-control: from cognition tobehavior. Heidelberg: Springer, 8:11-39
Anita Ching Ying Ng, David R Phillips,William Keng-mun Lee.(2002.Persistence and challenges to filial piety and informal support of older persons inmodern Chinese society:a cases study in Tuen Mun.Hong Kong.Journal of Aging Studies,16:135-153
Buiter Willem H, Kerneth M. Kletzer. 1995.Capital mobility,fiscal policy and growth under self-financiy of human capital formation.Canadia Journal of Economics,28:s163-s194
Bellettini Giokgio and Carlotta Berti Ceron.1999.Is social security realy bad for growth? Review of Economic Dynamics,2(4):796-819
Barr Nicholas .2000.ReformingPensions:Myths,truths,and policy choices.IMFWorking Paper:1-57
Brunner J K.1996.Transition from a Pay-as-you-go to a fully funded pension system:the case of differing individuals and intragenerational fairness.Journal of Public Economics,60:131-146.
Casamatta Georges, Cremer Helmuth and Pestieau Pierre.2000.Political sustainability and the design of social insurance.Journal of Public Economics,75:341-64
Echevarria Cruz A and Iza Amaia. 2006.Life expectancy,human capital,social security and growth. Journal of Public Economics,90(12):2323-2349
Danial K Andrews. Old age security for the American farm population.Journal of farm economicx.(27):634-648
Diamond P A.1965.National Debt in a neoclassical growth model.American Economic Review, 55 (5):1126-1150
Doncquier F, Paddison O.2003.Growth and equality effects of pension plans.Journal of Macroeconomics, (25):87-102
Estelle James.2001.How can China Solve its old age security problem?The interaction between Pension,SOE and Financial Market Reform.Prepared for Conference of Financial Sector Reform in China,Harward University,1-28
Ehrlich I, Jinyong Kim.2005.Social security,demographic trends, and economic growth: theory and evidence from the international experience.NBER Working Paper,NO.11121
Elisabeth Wallace.Old age security in Canada:changing attitudes.http://jstor.org/13813.[2010-5-13]
Feldstein Martin.1985. The optimal level of social security benefits.Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100( 2) :303-319
Feldstein M S and Samwick A A.1996.The transition path in privatizing social security. NBER WorkingPaper,11: 5761
Feldstein Martin.1999.Social security pension reform in China.China Economic Review, 10(2):99-107
Jayachandran N. 1996.A probit latent variable model of nutrition information and dietary fiber intake. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, (78): 628-639
Hindriks Jean and De Donder Philippe.2003.The politics of redistributive social insurance. Journal of Public Economics,87(12):2639-2660
Kemnitz Alexander and Berthold Wigger.2000.Growth and social security: the role of human capital. European Journal of Politic Economy,16(4): 673-683
Kotlikoff L J.1996.Privatizing social security: How it works and why it matters.Tax Policy and the Economy,10:1-32
Kaganovich Michael and Tzhak Zicha.1999.Education,social security and growth.Journal of PublicEconomics, 71(2):289-309
Perloff E S Dunn,E E Lampard and R F Muth.1960.Rrgions,resources and economic growth.Baltimore: John Hopkins Press,4
Richardson H W.1973.Regional growth theory.London:Macmillan,6
Sala-i-Martin Xavier. 1996. A positive theory of social security.Journal of Economic Growth, 1(2):277-304
Samuelson P A.1975. Optimum social security in a life-cycle growth model. International Economic Review, 16(3):539-544
Stiglitz J E and Orszag P R.1999. Rethinking pension reform: ten myths about social security systems.Paper presented at World Bankconference on New Ideas aboutOld Age Security,9:14-15
Shih-Jiunn Shi.2006.Left to market and family– again? Ideas and the development of the rural pension policy in China. Social Policy and Administration, 40 (7): 791-806
Siebert H.1969.Regional economic growth:theory and policy. Scranton:Interational Book Company,4-18
Tabellini Guido.2000.A positive theory of social security. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 102(3): 523-545
Takayama Noriyuki.2002.Pension reform of PRC:incentives,goverance and policy options.A paper presented at the ADB Institute 5th anniversary conference of challenges and New agenda for PRC,5-6
World Bank.1994.Adverting the old crisis:policies to protect the old and promote growth.Oxford: Oxford University Press,17-18
Word Bank.1997.Old age security:Pension reform in China 2020 Series.Washing D C,3-5
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |