黑龙江省农民收入影响因素及对策研究
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摘要
农民增收是解决“三农”问题的根本出发点和落脚点。在“十二五”规划中国家明确指出要提高农民增收能力,多渠道促进农民增收。在“十八大”中提出,截至2020年要实现全面建成小康社会的宏伟目标,强调实现国民生产总值和城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番。2013年中央农村工作会议强调,要保障国家粮食安全和主要农产品的供给,要在“收入倍增中”着力促进农民增收。这说明国家高度重视粮食安全和农民增收问题,农民增收问题已经上升到了国家战略层面。黑龙江省作为全国第一产粮和商品粮大省,为保障国家粮食安全做出了卓越的贡献；但是,黑龙江省农民收入水平却大幅低于粮食主销区农民收入水平。黑龙江现有耕地面积2.06亿亩,占全国耕地面积的11.4%,农村人均耕地面积12.1亩位列全国第一；在全国粮食产量“九连增”的过程中,黑龙江省起到了主要拉动作用。黑龙江省粮食增产贡献率在2009年曾高达60.61%,为全国粮食“九连增”打上了明显的龙江印记。并且黑龙江省于2008年提出了“千亿斤粮食工程”,并于2010年以年粮食产量5013万吨实现了这一宏伟目标；2011年粮食产量更是史无前例的达到1114.1亿斤,取代河南成为全国第一,粮食产量占据全国粮食产量的10%；商品粮率高达80%,位居13个粮食主产省之首。即使获得如此辉煌的粮食生产成果,黑龙江省依旧没有摆脱财政穷省和农民低收的命运。在2000-2011年,黑龙江省农民收入始终在全国平均水平上下波动。2006年人均收入为3552元,比全国平均3587元低35元,2007年农民人均收入为4132元,比全国平均水平低8元,直至2011年农民收入还不到北京和上海农民的50%。粮食增产不增收或者增收效果不明显的问题仍旧十分明显。因此,以黑龙江省农民收入增长为研究对象,就有较高的现实和理论意义。研究黑龙江省农民收入增长问题,对促进黑龙江省农民收入可持续增长、保障国家粮食安全、搞活黑龙江省农村经济、维护社会稳定和开拓农村消费市场有着重要的现实意义；同时,对其他粮食主产区农民收入增长有着示范和借鉴意愿。
首先,针对黑龙江省收入现状进行分析。此部分先对黑龙江省农民收入水平、收入结构、城乡收入差距进行动态分析,找出黑龙江省农民收入的变化规律；然后对黑龙江省同其他地区的收入进行比较,找出黑龙江省农民收入的特点；并对黑龙江省农民收入协调性进行测度。利用因子得分分析模型将收入和粮食生产尝试有效结合,验证黑龙江省农民贡献和收入是否协调。最后,通过同全面小康标准的比较,明确黑龙江省农民收入同小康标准的差距,明确实现小康收入标准的时间。
其次,针对黑龙江省农民收入影响因素进行分析。首先,界定影响因素分析框架,按照实证要素和行为因素进行分析,并对涉及因素的现状和存在的问题进行分析。然后,利用多元线性回归方法对调研数据进行分析,以此来研究影响黑龙江省农民收入的主要因素。
再者,针对相关行为因素进行分析,分别对黑龙江省农户和其他经营主体间博弈关系进行讨论。寻找优化农民、企业和政府行为,促进农民利益最大化的路径,并为政府政策制定提供一定的启示。
最后,归纳全文的结论,并有针对性的提出黑龙江省农民收入增长的对策建议。
通过本研究表明：(1)黑龙江省收入整体呈现出上涨态势,其收入主要来源为家庭经营收入,工资收入成为收入的第二来源,但是工资收入占比要明显低于其他地区。(2)黑龙江省的收入水平处于极不合理状态,其粮食生产贡献没有得到合理的补偿。(3)黑龙江省农民的主要影响因素存在一定问题,直接或间接制约农民收入增长：1)水资源承载力不断下降。2)土地质量下降较快,水土流失严重。3)农户自身文化素质偏低。4)补贴金额有限,粮食生产外部性补偿机制缺失。5)农资价格上涨过快、利润空间逐渐压缩。6)“重迎茬”问题突出。7)资金供给尚无法满足农户需求。8)技术需求未满足、技术应用不到位。9)局部地区土地细碎化明显。10)局部地区机械化水平仍旧不高。11)合作社覆盖范围有限、实际作用有待加强。12)水利设施相对不足。13)网络覆盖范围较为有限。14)乡镇企业发展滞后。15)坑农害农现象依旧存在。(4)黑龙江省农户收入的主要影响变量为播种面积、家庭主要种植品种、年劳动力人均工作天数、家庭劳动力数量、非健康人数、农机平均动力、土地是否深翻、低产田面积占比、单块土地规模程度、劳动力平均学历、劳动力平均年龄、是否获得贷款和是否加入合作社。其中除了非健康人数、低产田面积占比和劳动力平均年龄的回归系数为负以外,其他变量均为正。在连续变量中,主要种植品种、播种面积、家庭劳动力数量和劳动力平均学历对农民收入的影响系数较大。在虚拟变量中,是否加入合作社对收入影响系数最大。(5)优化各主体行为,要充分利用监督和竞争机制；农户在博弈当中处于劣势地位,政府应该通过加强监管和提供补贴的方式保证农民的自身利益,同时政府也可以获得远期社会和生态效益。
根据上述结论,本研究提出以下对策：(1)大力发展农民合作组织并不断提高农民素质：(2)建立龙江农民利益补偿机制并争取更多国家优惠政策：(3)积极推进适度规模经营以实现规模效益：(4)完善农业基础设施夯实农业发展物质基础；(5)通过积极发挥科技作用以实现科技富农；(6)依托自身优势发展乡镇企业并积极推进跨国农业生产；(7)严打害农行为并稳定农资价格；(8)开拓多主体资金供给模式解决农民资金需求：(9)实施自然生态保护政策促进农业可持续发展。
Farmers'income growth is the fundamental starting point and goal to solve the issue of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers". Our country clearly points out we should improve the capacity of farmers'income growth and increase farmers'income with multi-channels in the "12th Five-Year Plan". The18th national congress of Communist Party of China proposes that we achieve the ambitious goal to complete the moderately prosperous society in all aspects by2020, emphasizing the gross national product and per capita income of urban and rural residents is more than double that of2010.2013Central Rural Work Conference stresses that to protect national food security and supply of major agricultural products, we should spare no efforts in increasing farmers' income. This shows that the country attaches great importance to the issue of food security and farmers'income growth and the issue of farmers'income has risen to national strategic level. Heilongjiang, as our country's first major grain and commodity grain producing Province, has made outstanding contributions to the protection of national food security. However, the level of farmers' income in Heilongjiang is significantly lower than that of food sales areas. The existing arable land area is0.206billion hectares in Heilongjiang, accounting for11.4%of the arable land of China, rural per capita arable land area is12.1acres and ranks first in the country. In the process of "Nine Year Consecutive Growth of the nation's grain yield", Heilongjiang has played a major role in boosting. The contribution rate of grain production in Heilongjiang is as high as60.61%in2009, marking obvious Longjiang imprint for "Nine Year Consecutive Growth of the nation's grain yield". Heilongjiang proposes "thousands of tons of food engineering" in2008and achieves this ambitious goal with annual grain output of50.13million tons in2010. The grain output reaches111.41billion kilograms unprecedently in2011and ranks first replacing Henan in the country. Food output accounts for10%that of the nation and the commodity grain rate is as high as80%, ranking first among13major grain-producing provinces. Even with such a brilliant food production outcomes, Heilongjiang still does not get rid of the fate of poor financial Province and farmers'low income. From2000to2011, farmers'income in Heilongjiang has always fluctuated up and down in the national average. Per capita income is3,552yuan in2006,35yuan lower than the national average of3,587yuan and per capita income is4,132yuan in2007,8yuan lower than the national average. Farmers'income is less than50%of the farmers in Beijing and Shanghai until2011. Grain output growth without increasing income or income growth effect is not obvious, which is still very apparent. Therefore, the paper considers farmers'income growth in Heilongjiang as the research object which has a higher reality and theoretical significance. Through researching the issue of farmers' income growth in Heilongjiang, we find that it has important practical significance to promote the sustainable growth of farmers' income, to ensure national food security, to invigorate the rural economy,to maintain social stability and to develop the rural consumer market in Heilongjiang Province. At the same time, it plays a role in demonstrating for farmers'income growth of other major grain producing areas.
Firstly, the paper analyzes farmers' income situation in Heilongjiang Province. This part first dynamically analyzes the farmers' income levels, the revenue structure and urban-rural income gap in Heilongjiang and identifies its variation of farmers' income, then compares farmers' income in Heilongjiang with other areas and finds the characteristics of farmers' income in Heilongjiang. Meanwhile, this part measures the coordination of farmers' income in Heilongjiang. Combining income with food production effectively by utilizing factor score analysis model, the paper verifies whether farmers' contributions and farmers' income is coordinated. At last, by comparing with comprehensive moderately prosperous standard, the paper shows clearly the gap between farmers' income in Heilongjiang and moderately prosperous standard and the time to achieve the standard of moderately prosperous income.
Secondly, the paper analyzes influencing factors of farmers' income in Heilongjiang. This part analyzes the survey data using multiple linear regression method in order to study the main factors affecting farmers' income in Heilongjiang.
Furthermore, the paper analyzes game relationship between farmers' production behavior and business entities in Heilongjiang. This part analyzes the behavior of corporate and government to impact farmers' income in Heilongjiang except the model's influence, to find the path to optimize the action of farmers, businesses and government and to promote the maximization of farmers' interests.
Finally, the paper summarizes the conclusions of the full text and proposes the targeted suggestions for farmers' income growth in Heilongjiang. This study shows:(1) Farmers' income in Heilongjiang shows a rising trend and its main income source is the family-run income, wage income has become the second income source, but the proportion of wage income is significantly lower than that of other areas.(2)The farmers' income level in Heilongjiang is extremely unreasonable and its food production contribution does not receive reasonable compensation.(3) There are certain problems for the main influencing factors of farmers in Heilongjiang Province which directly or indirectly restricts farmers' income growth:1) Declining on water resources carrying capacity.2) Rapid decline in the land quality and serious soil erosion.3) Lower culture quality on farmers' themselves.4) Limited amount of subsidies and missing on food production externalities compensation mechanism.5) Rising fast on agricultural prices and gradually compressed on profit margins.6) Highlighting on "Cropping" problems.7) Capital supply can't still meet the farmers' needs.8) Technical requirements are not met and technology application is not in place.9) Evident land fragmentation in some areas.10) Mechanization level is still not high in some areas.11) Limited coverage on Cooperatives and its actual role needs to be strengthened.12) Relative lack of irrigation facilities.13) Relatively limited network coverage.14) Lagging on the development of township enterprises.15) The phenomenon of entrapping and harming farmers still exists.(4) The main influencing factors of farmers'income in Heilongjiang includes sown area, main planted varieties, average working days of the years of labor, the number of family labor, the number of non-health, the proportion of grain income, a single crop or not, the average agricultural machinery power, low-yield farmland acreage, degree of large-scale land, the average number of labors'years of schooling, labors'average age and access to credit or not. The number of non-health, the proportion of grain income, a single crop or not, low-yield farmland acreage and labors' average age has played a negative role in farmers'income in Heilongjiang and other factors are positive ones.(5) To optimize each entity's action, we should take full advantage of the mechanism of supervision and competition. Farmers lies in a disadvantage position in the game relationship, which the government should strengthen supervision and provide subsidies to guarantee farmers' self-interest, meanwhile, the government could also get a long-term social and ecological benefits.
According to the above conclusions, the study proposes the following suggestions:(1) Vigorously develop the rural cooperative organizations and continue to improve the quality of farmers;(2) Establish Longjiang compensation mechanism of farmers'interests and secure more preferential policies;(3) Actively promote the appropriate scale in order to achieve economies of scale;(4) Improve agricultural infrastructure and consolidate the material foundation of agricultural development;(5) Through science and technology play an active role in order to make farmers rich;(6) Relying on their own advantages and actively promote the development of township enterprises and multinational agricultural production;(7) Crackdown "entrap&harm" farmers' behavior and stabilize agricultural prices;(8) Develop the mode of multi-agent supply of funds to solve financial needs of farmers;(9) Implement nature conservation policies to promote agricultural sustainable development.
首先,针对黑龙江省收入现状进行分析。此部分先对黑龙江省农民收入水平、收入结构、城乡收入差距进行动态分析,找出黑龙江省农民收入的变化规律；然后对黑龙江省同其他地区的收入进行比较,找出黑龙江省农民收入的特点；并对黑龙江省农民收入协调性进行测度。利用因子得分分析模型将收入和粮食生产尝试有效结合,验证黑龙江省农民贡献和收入是否协调。最后,通过同全面小康标准的比较,明确黑龙江省农民收入同小康标准的差距,明确实现小康收入标准的时间。
其次,针对黑龙江省农民收入影响因素进行分析。首先,界定影响因素分析框架,按照实证要素和行为因素进行分析,并对涉及因素的现状和存在的问题进行分析。然后,利用多元线性回归方法对调研数据进行分析,以此来研究影响黑龙江省农民收入的主要因素。
再者,针对相关行为因素进行分析,分别对黑龙江省农户和其他经营主体间博弈关系进行讨论。寻找优化农民、企业和政府行为,促进农民利益最大化的路径,并为政府政策制定提供一定的启示。
最后,归纳全文的结论,并有针对性的提出黑龙江省农民收入增长的对策建议。
通过本研究表明：(1)黑龙江省收入整体呈现出上涨态势,其收入主要来源为家庭经营收入,工资收入成为收入的第二来源,但是工资收入占比要明显低于其他地区。(2)黑龙江省的收入水平处于极不合理状态,其粮食生产贡献没有得到合理的补偿。(3)黑龙江省农民的主要影响因素存在一定问题,直接或间接制约农民收入增长：1)水资源承载力不断下降。2)土地质量下降较快,水土流失严重。3)农户自身文化素质偏低。4)补贴金额有限,粮食生产外部性补偿机制缺失。5)农资价格上涨过快、利润空间逐渐压缩。6)“重迎茬”问题突出。7)资金供给尚无法满足农户需求。8)技术需求未满足、技术应用不到位。9)局部地区土地细碎化明显。10)局部地区机械化水平仍旧不高。11)合作社覆盖范围有限、实际作用有待加强。12)水利设施相对不足。13)网络覆盖范围较为有限。14)乡镇企业发展滞后。15)坑农害农现象依旧存在。(4)黑龙江省农户收入的主要影响变量为播种面积、家庭主要种植品种、年劳动力人均工作天数、家庭劳动力数量、非健康人数、农机平均动力、土地是否深翻、低产田面积占比、单块土地规模程度、劳动力平均学历、劳动力平均年龄、是否获得贷款和是否加入合作社。其中除了非健康人数、低产田面积占比和劳动力平均年龄的回归系数为负以外,其他变量均为正。在连续变量中,主要种植品种、播种面积、家庭劳动力数量和劳动力平均学历对农民收入的影响系数较大。在虚拟变量中,是否加入合作社对收入影响系数最大。(5)优化各主体行为,要充分利用监督和竞争机制；农户在博弈当中处于劣势地位,政府应该通过加强监管和提供补贴的方式保证农民的自身利益,同时政府也可以获得远期社会和生态效益。
根据上述结论,本研究提出以下对策：(1)大力发展农民合作组织并不断提高农民素质：(2)建立龙江农民利益补偿机制并争取更多国家优惠政策：(3)积极推进适度规模经营以实现规模效益：(4)完善农业基础设施夯实农业发展物质基础；(5)通过积极发挥科技作用以实现科技富农；(6)依托自身优势发展乡镇企业并积极推进跨国农业生产；(7)严打害农行为并稳定农资价格；(8)开拓多主体资金供给模式解决农民资金需求：(9)实施自然生态保护政策促进农业可持续发展。
Farmers'income growth is the fundamental starting point and goal to solve the issue of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers". Our country clearly points out we should improve the capacity of farmers'income growth and increase farmers'income with multi-channels in the "12th Five-Year Plan". The18th national congress of Communist Party of China proposes that we achieve the ambitious goal to complete the moderately prosperous society in all aspects by2020, emphasizing the gross national product and per capita income of urban and rural residents is more than double that of2010.2013Central Rural Work Conference stresses that to protect national food security and supply of major agricultural products, we should spare no efforts in increasing farmers' income. This shows that the country attaches great importance to the issue of food security and farmers'income growth and the issue of farmers'income has risen to national strategic level. Heilongjiang, as our country's first major grain and commodity grain producing Province, has made outstanding contributions to the protection of national food security. However, the level of farmers' income in Heilongjiang is significantly lower than that of food sales areas. The existing arable land area is0.206billion hectares in Heilongjiang, accounting for11.4%of the arable land of China, rural per capita arable land area is12.1acres and ranks first in the country. In the process of "Nine Year Consecutive Growth of the nation's grain yield", Heilongjiang has played a major role in boosting. The contribution rate of grain production in Heilongjiang is as high as60.61%in2009, marking obvious Longjiang imprint for "Nine Year Consecutive Growth of the nation's grain yield". Heilongjiang proposes "thousands of tons of food engineering" in2008and achieves this ambitious goal with annual grain output of50.13million tons in2010. The grain output reaches111.41billion kilograms unprecedently in2011and ranks first replacing Henan in the country. Food output accounts for10%that of the nation and the commodity grain rate is as high as80%, ranking first among13major grain-producing provinces. Even with such a brilliant food production outcomes, Heilongjiang still does not get rid of the fate of poor financial Province and farmers'low income. From2000to2011, farmers'income in Heilongjiang has always fluctuated up and down in the national average. Per capita income is3,552yuan in2006,35yuan lower than the national average of3,587yuan and per capita income is4,132yuan in2007,8yuan lower than the national average. Farmers'income is less than50%of the farmers in Beijing and Shanghai until2011. Grain output growth without increasing income or income growth effect is not obvious, which is still very apparent. Therefore, the paper considers farmers'income growth in Heilongjiang as the research object which has a higher reality and theoretical significance. Through researching the issue of farmers' income growth in Heilongjiang, we find that it has important practical significance to promote the sustainable growth of farmers' income, to ensure national food security, to invigorate the rural economy,to maintain social stability and to develop the rural consumer market in Heilongjiang Province. At the same time, it plays a role in demonstrating for farmers'income growth of other major grain producing areas.
Firstly, the paper analyzes farmers' income situation in Heilongjiang Province. This part first dynamically analyzes the farmers' income levels, the revenue structure and urban-rural income gap in Heilongjiang and identifies its variation of farmers' income, then compares farmers' income in Heilongjiang with other areas and finds the characteristics of farmers' income in Heilongjiang. Meanwhile, this part measures the coordination of farmers' income in Heilongjiang. Combining income with food production effectively by utilizing factor score analysis model, the paper verifies whether farmers' contributions and farmers' income is coordinated. At last, by comparing with comprehensive moderately prosperous standard, the paper shows clearly the gap between farmers' income in Heilongjiang and moderately prosperous standard and the time to achieve the standard of moderately prosperous income.
Secondly, the paper analyzes influencing factors of farmers' income in Heilongjiang. This part analyzes the survey data using multiple linear regression method in order to study the main factors affecting farmers' income in Heilongjiang.
Furthermore, the paper analyzes game relationship between farmers' production behavior and business entities in Heilongjiang. This part analyzes the behavior of corporate and government to impact farmers' income in Heilongjiang except the model's influence, to find the path to optimize the action of farmers, businesses and government and to promote the maximization of farmers' interests.
Finally, the paper summarizes the conclusions of the full text and proposes the targeted suggestions for farmers' income growth in Heilongjiang. This study shows:(1) Farmers' income in Heilongjiang shows a rising trend and its main income source is the family-run income, wage income has become the second income source, but the proportion of wage income is significantly lower than that of other areas.(2)The farmers' income level in Heilongjiang is extremely unreasonable and its food production contribution does not receive reasonable compensation.(3) There are certain problems for the main influencing factors of farmers in Heilongjiang Province which directly or indirectly restricts farmers' income growth:1) Declining on water resources carrying capacity.2) Rapid decline in the land quality and serious soil erosion.3) Lower culture quality on farmers' themselves.4) Limited amount of subsidies and missing on food production externalities compensation mechanism.5) Rising fast on agricultural prices and gradually compressed on profit margins.6) Highlighting on "Cropping" problems.7) Capital supply can't still meet the farmers' needs.8) Technical requirements are not met and technology application is not in place.9) Evident land fragmentation in some areas.10) Mechanization level is still not high in some areas.11) Limited coverage on Cooperatives and its actual role needs to be strengthened.12) Relative lack of irrigation facilities.13) Relatively limited network coverage.14) Lagging on the development of township enterprises.15) The phenomenon of entrapping and harming farmers still exists.(4) The main influencing factors of farmers'income in Heilongjiang includes sown area, main planted varieties, average working days of the years of labor, the number of family labor, the number of non-health, the proportion of grain income, a single crop or not, the average agricultural machinery power, low-yield farmland acreage, degree of large-scale land, the average number of labors'years of schooling, labors'average age and access to credit or not. The number of non-health, the proportion of grain income, a single crop or not, low-yield farmland acreage and labors' average age has played a negative role in farmers'income in Heilongjiang and other factors are positive ones.(5) To optimize each entity's action, we should take full advantage of the mechanism of supervision and competition. Farmers lies in a disadvantage position in the game relationship, which the government should strengthen supervision and provide subsidies to guarantee farmers' self-interest, meanwhile, the government could also get a long-term social and ecological benefits.
According to the above conclusions, the study proposes the following suggestions:(1) Vigorously develop the rural cooperative organizations and continue to improve the quality of farmers;(2) Establish Longjiang compensation mechanism of farmers'interests and secure more preferential policies;(3) Actively promote the appropriate scale in order to achieve economies of scale;(4) Improve agricultural infrastructure and consolidate the material foundation of agricultural development;(5) Through science and technology play an active role in order to make farmers rich;(6) Relying on their own advantages and actively promote the development of township enterprises and multinational agricultural production;(7) Crackdown "entrap&harm" farmers' behavior and stabilize agricultural prices;(8) Develop the mode of multi-agent supply of funds to solve financial needs of farmers;(9) Implement nature conservation policies to promote agricultural sustainable development.
引文
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