黑河中游水—土资源变化的人文因素驱动力分析及多目标情景模拟
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摘要
气候变化等自然因素主导着区域百年至千年尺度的变化,而在短时间尺度上,自然因素存在累积效应而相对稳定,因此人类活动对数十年至百年尺度的区域环境变化具有主导作用。反映在流域方面即人类活动正深度扰动着绿洲表层水-土资源系统变化过程。黑河是中国第二大内陆河,流经青海、甘肃和内蒙古三省,在西北干旱区承担着绿洲发育、生态屏障等主要功能,是重要的内陆河流域之一,黑河中游地区的人口规模和GDP分别占全流域的88.47%和87.93%。张掖市甘州区位于甘肃省河西走廊中部、黑河流域中游的东片,境内地势平坦,土壤肥沃,水源相对充足,年径流量占黑河中游多年平均径流量的62%；甘州区是张掖市唯一的市辖区,在黑河中游各县市中,无论是经济发展水平,还是人口数量均处于领先地位；该区是典型的农耕区,人类活动强度在中游各县市中最大,人文因素对生态系统的干扰也最强烈,水-土-气-生变化过程中人类活动印记也最明显,人文因素对其社会-经济-生态系统的作用过程及模式在黑河中游绿洲具有典型代表性,其中水土资源系统尤受人类活动影响剧烈。
黑河中游土地利用/覆被具有社会和自然双重属性,当代土地覆被变化主要是人类活动作用于土地利用的结果；干旱区绿洲水资源不仅仅是人类生产生活中不可缺少的必须资源,也是生态环境最重要的控制性要素之一。本文首先分析了在人文因素作用下,研究区2002-2011年各土地利用类型面积变化的速度和幅度以及土地利用/覆被程度综合指数,在明确各类型土地利用变化趋势的基础上,建立人文因素指标体系,模拟人文因素与土地利用/覆被变化之间的多元线性关系,随后通过灰色关联分析,提取影响不同用地类型的关键人文因素指标。
其次分析研究水资源系统的利用现状以及各用水部门的用水结构特征,在明晰水资源系统利用特征的基础上,构建水资源发展的人文评价指数,通过指数反映水资源系统的状态变化以及人文因素对水资源发展变化的驱动作用；并采用因子分析方法对各个人文因素的贡献率大小进行排序,提取主要的人文因素指标；后采用分层聚类法对各人文因素作用趋势按照年份进行分类,以呈现出人类行为在研究年限内对社会经济系统水循环影响作用的相对变化情况。
最后,利用系统动力学方法,选取关键人文因素与水土资源一起构建研究区人口、经济、土地资源和水资源(Population-Economic-Land resource-Water resources of Zhangye Ganzhou, ZGPELW)开发利用的系统动力学ZGPELW模型。以2000-2009年各类统计数据进行模型的调试和验证,以2009年作为基准年,2020年为中期规划年,2030年为远期规划年,对中期规划年间各类指标数值的变化情况做具体模拟,对远期规划年间各类指标变化情况做趋势预测,以反映研究区土地和水资源变化趋势。分析、模拟和预测在未来不同目标的情景设置中,关键人文因素作用下水土资源发展模式。主要分析结论如下：
(1)从整体结构变化来看,2002-2011年甘州区土地利用/覆被变化不明显,其中建设用地扩张最为迅速,农业用地资源有所减少,土地利用结构呈现非农化趋势；人口规模、贫富状况、社会经济、技术水平、政策措施、文化观念等人文因素形成合力推动甘州区土地利用/覆被变化,在不同类型用地变化过程中各人文因素驱动力大小不同；采用灰色关联分析法得出,文章评价指标体系中,农业人口数量下降,农业科技人员数量上升以及电机井年末数持续增加分别是2002-2011年甘州区城乡建设用地、交通水利建设用地、耕地变化的主导人文因素指标。
(2)通过因子分析法得出,“经济发展”、“水务建设”、“人口规模”和“水资源开发”是影响甘州区社会经济系统水循环的人文因素公因子；采用分层聚类法对各年份人文因素作用综合评分并进行分级归类得出,人类行为作用于水资源系统的作用力向越来越好的方向发展。
(3)运用系统动力学方法分析得出,各模拟情景中水土资源的发展特点为：情景1——基于历史发展趋势的水土资源开发模式,土地资源中仅农用地减少,建设用地增加,未利用土地不变,水资源中生态用水比例持续下降；情景2——快速城镇化背景下的水土资源开发模式,土地资源中农用地和建设用地增加,未利用土地减少,用水总量激增,无法完成向下游分水的计划；情景3——调整农业种植业结构发展模式,土地资源变化为农用地和建设用地大幅增加,对未利用和难利用土地的开发利用程度优于情景Ⅰ和情景Ⅱ,水资源利用总量到远期规划年减少为6.11亿m3,四个部门的用水变化趋势为工业用水先逐年增加,而后在2027年左右开始下降,生活用水总体略有增加,2029年开始下降,农业用水降低,生态用水提升。
Natural factors such as climate change dominate the area changes from one hundred to one thousand, And in a short time scale, natural factors are cumulative effect and relative stability, so that human activities are affecting the decades to one hundred scale of regional environment change. Reflected in the depth of the basin mean human activities are disturbing the change process of oasis surface water and soil resources system. Heihe river basin is one of the important in continental river basin in the northwest arid areas in our country, middle reaches area of the population scale and the GDP accounted for88.47%and87.93%of the whole basin, respectively. Ganzhou district of Zhangye city is located in the middle of Hosi corridor in gansu province and the east of heihe river basin. Within the territory of Ganzhou district, terrain flat, soil fertile and water abundance relatively. Annual runoff accounted for62%of heihe middle years average runoff; Ganzhou district of zhangye city is the only municipal districts, and in the lead of all counties in heihe middle reaches; Ganzhou district is a typical agricultural area, so agricultural water accounts for absolute dominant subject. The interference of human activities on the natural ecological system the most violent, water-earth-air-born changes affected by human activities is the most significant, anthropogenic influence on its effect in social-economic-ecosystem processes and patterns in the heihe river middle reaches the oasis is a typical representative.
Soil and water resources system of Heihe river middle reaches especially affected by human activity. Land use/cover with both social and natural attributes, the land cover change is mainly the result of human activities on land use; Water is not only the basic resources, production of human life and is one of the most important controlling factors of the ecological environment. Firstly, this article analyzes velocity and amplitude of various land use types and comprehensive index of LUCC in the study area under anthropogenic influence from the year2002to2011. Secondly, based on specifying the trend of various types of land use change, this article establishes humanistic factors index system, and simulates multiple linear relationships between humanities factors and LUCC. Finally, it extracts key humanity factors that affect different land use types through Grey Relational Analysis.
Secondly, analyzes the utilization of water resources system and the water structure characteristics of all water consumption departments. On the basis of clear water system using features, build the anthropogenic evaluation index of water resources development. Through the index reflect the change of water resources status and the driving action of cultural factors on the change of water resources development; Using factor analysis method to sort the human factors by contribution rate, and extract the main measure of anthropogenic influence; then hierarchical cluster analysis method is used to classify the model the action of the humanistic factors according to the year, to present the relative change of affect of the human behavior to social and economic system water cycle in the study period.
Finally, using the method of system dynamics, and selecting the key anthropogenic influence factors with soil and water resources built system dynamics models that Population-Economic-Land resource-Water resources of Ganzhou district of Zhangye city (ZGPELW) development and utilization in the study area. With all kinds of statistical data in2000-2009to debugging and validation the model,2009as a benchmark year,2020as medium-term planning year and2030for the long-term planning year, simulate all kinds of index change from2010to2030to reflect the change trend of land and water in the study area. Prediction and analysis in different scenarios in the future the development pattern of water and soil resource under key anthropogenic influence factors. The main analysis conclusion is as follows:
(1) In the overall structure of land use/cover of Ganzhou area from2002to2011, construction land has expanded accelerating, agricultural land resources have been reducing, and the non-agricultural trend of land use structure is evident. Population, poverty and wealth conditions, social economy, technology, policy and cultural concepts resulted in resultant force to promote regional land use/cover change. The contribution rate of different anthropogenic influence are different in the process of land use change of different types.(3)Using grey correlation analysis method in evaluation index system, we found that, agricultural population decline, agricultural science and technology personnel rise and the number of motor-pumped well electricity continuing to grow are the dominant cultural factors index respectively to the change of urban and rural construction land, transportation and water conservancy construction land and cultivated land in2002-2011.
(2) Through factor analysis,"Economic development","development of water affairs","population scale" and "water resources development" are the anthropogenic common factor which influence socioeconomic system water circulation of ganzhou district; Using hierarchical clustering method, give a mark to each year anthropogenic factor effect and hierarchical classify. Then reach that the force human behavior to water resources system more and more better.
(3) Using system dynamics method analysis show, Scene1——based on the historical development trend of soil and water resources development pattern, water amount under overall, but in the process of ecological water use is reduced year by year, land development is limited to agricultural land and construction land, grassland and garden land surface and other unused land area are no change; Scene2——soil and water resources development pattern under the background of rapid urbanization, is superior to the scene1in urbanization and ecological environment, but gross water surged as the biggest drawbacks, Considering the agricultural irrigation water in2030still occupies about63%of the total water use, Scene3——adjusting agricultural planting structure development pattern, continue to reduce the agricultural irrigation water use, improve agricultural Unilateral water output effect, Predict agricultural land2030increase7100ha, construction land increase500ha. Gross of water resource utilization reduce to611million m3, water change trend of four departments show that: industrial water increase year by year, and then, in2027begin to decline, domestic water generally increased slightly, in2029began to decline, agricultural water reduce, and ecological water increase.
黑河中游土地利用/覆被具有社会和自然双重属性,当代土地覆被变化主要是人类活动作用于土地利用的结果；干旱区绿洲水资源不仅仅是人类生产生活中不可缺少的必须资源,也是生态环境最重要的控制性要素之一。本文首先分析了在人文因素作用下,研究区2002-2011年各土地利用类型面积变化的速度和幅度以及土地利用/覆被程度综合指数,在明确各类型土地利用变化趋势的基础上,建立人文因素指标体系,模拟人文因素与土地利用/覆被变化之间的多元线性关系,随后通过灰色关联分析,提取影响不同用地类型的关键人文因素指标。
其次分析研究水资源系统的利用现状以及各用水部门的用水结构特征,在明晰水资源系统利用特征的基础上,构建水资源发展的人文评价指数,通过指数反映水资源系统的状态变化以及人文因素对水资源发展变化的驱动作用；并采用因子分析方法对各个人文因素的贡献率大小进行排序,提取主要的人文因素指标；后采用分层聚类法对各人文因素作用趋势按照年份进行分类,以呈现出人类行为在研究年限内对社会经济系统水循环影响作用的相对变化情况。
最后,利用系统动力学方法,选取关键人文因素与水土资源一起构建研究区人口、经济、土地资源和水资源(Population-Economic-Land resource-Water resources of Zhangye Ganzhou, ZGPELW)开发利用的系统动力学ZGPELW模型。以2000-2009年各类统计数据进行模型的调试和验证,以2009年作为基准年,2020年为中期规划年,2030年为远期规划年,对中期规划年间各类指标数值的变化情况做具体模拟,对远期规划年间各类指标变化情况做趋势预测,以反映研究区土地和水资源变化趋势。分析、模拟和预测在未来不同目标的情景设置中,关键人文因素作用下水土资源发展模式。主要分析结论如下：
(1)从整体结构变化来看,2002-2011年甘州区土地利用/覆被变化不明显,其中建设用地扩张最为迅速,农业用地资源有所减少,土地利用结构呈现非农化趋势；人口规模、贫富状况、社会经济、技术水平、政策措施、文化观念等人文因素形成合力推动甘州区土地利用/覆被变化,在不同类型用地变化过程中各人文因素驱动力大小不同；采用灰色关联分析法得出,文章评价指标体系中,农业人口数量下降,农业科技人员数量上升以及电机井年末数持续增加分别是2002-2011年甘州区城乡建设用地、交通水利建设用地、耕地变化的主导人文因素指标。
(2)通过因子分析法得出,“经济发展”、“水务建设”、“人口规模”和“水资源开发”是影响甘州区社会经济系统水循环的人文因素公因子；采用分层聚类法对各年份人文因素作用综合评分并进行分级归类得出,人类行为作用于水资源系统的作用力向越来越好的方向发展。
(3)运用系统动力学方法分析得出,各模拟情景中水土资源的发展特点为：情景1——基于历史发展趋势的水土资源开发模式,土地资源中仅农用地减少,建设用地增加,未利用土地不变,水资源中生态用水比例持续下降；情景2——快速城镇化背景下的水土资源开发模式,土地资源中农用地和建设用地增加,未利用土地减少,用水总量激增,无法完成向下游分水的计划；情景3——调整农业种植业结构发展模式,土地资源变化为农用地和建设用地大幅增加,对未利用和难利用土地的开发利用程度优于情景Ⅰ和情景Ⅱ,水资源利用总量到远期规划年减少为6.11亿m3,四个部门的用水变化趋势为工业用水先逐年增加,而后在2027年左右开始下降,生活用水总体略有增加,2029年开始下降,农业用水降低,生态用水提升。
Natural factors such as climate change dominate the area changes from one hundred to one thousand, And in a short time scale, natural factors are cumulative effect and relative stability, so that human activities are affecting the decades to one hundred scale of regional environment change. Reflected in the depth of the basin mean human activities are disturbing the change process of oasis surface water and soil resources system. Heihe river basin is one of the important in continental river basin in the northwest arid areas in our country, middle reaches area of the population scale and the GDP accounted for88.47%and87.93%of the whole basin, respectively. Ganzhou district of Zhangye city is located in the middle of Hosi corridor in gansu province and the east of heihe river basin. Within the territory of Ganzhou district, terrain flat, soil fertile and water abundance relatively. Annual runoff accounted for62%of heihe middle years average runoff; Ganzhou district of zhangye city is the only municipal districts, and in the lead of all counties in heihe middle reaches; Ganzhou district is a typical agricultural area, so agricultural water accounts for absolute dominant subject. The interference of human activities on the natural ecological system the most violent, water-earth-air-born changes affected by human activities is the most significant, anthropogenic influence on its effect in social-economic-ecosystem processes and patterns in the heihe river middle reaches the oasis is a typical representative.
Soil and water resources system of Heihe river middle reaches especially affected by human activity. Land use/cover with both social and natural attributes, the land cover change is mainly the result of human activities on land use; Water is not only the basic resources, production of human life and is one of the most important controlling factors of the ecological environment. Firstly, this article analyzes velocity and amplitude of various land use types and comprehensive index of LUCC in the study area under anthropogenic influence from the year2002to2011. Secondly, based on specifying the trend of various types of land use change, this article establishes humanistic factors index system, and simulates multiple linear relationships between humanities factors and LUCC. Finally, it extracts key humanity factors that affect different land use types through Grey Relational Analysis.
Secondly, analyzes the utilization of water resources system and the water structure characteristics of all water consumption departments. On the basis of clear water system using features, build the anthropogenic evaluation index of water resources development. Through the index reflect the change of water resources status and the driving action of cultural factors on the change of water resources development; Using factor analysis method to sort the human factors by contribution rate, and extract the main measure of anthropogenic influence; then hierarchical cluster analysis method is used to classify the model the action of the humanistic factors according to the year, to present the relative change of affect of the human behavior to social and economic system water cycle in the study period.
Finally, using the method of system dynamics, and selecting the key anthropogenic influence factors with soil and water resources built system dynamics models that Population-Economic-Land resource-Water resources of Ganzhou district of Zhangye city (ZGPELW) development and utilization in the study area. With all kinds of statistical data in2000-2009to debugging and validation the model,2009as a benchmark year,2020as medium-term planning year and2030for the long-term planning year, simulate all kinds of index change from2010to2030to reflect the change trend of land and water in the study area. Prediction and analysis in different scenarios in the future the development pattern of water and soil resource under key anthropogenic influence factors. The main analysis conclusion is as follows:
(1) In the overall structure of land use/cover of Ganzhou area from2002to2011, construction land has expanded accelerating, agricultural land resources have been reducing, and the non-agricultural trend of land use structure is evident. Population, poverty and wealth conditions, social economy, technology, policy and cultural concepts resulted in resultant force to promote regional land use/cover change. The contribution rate of different anthropogenic influence are different in the process of land use change of different types.(3)Using grey correlation analysis method in evaluation index system, we found that, agricultural population decline, agricultural science and technology personnel rise and the number of motor-pumped well electricity continuing to grow are the dominant cultural factors index respectively to the change of urban and rural construction land, transportation and water conservancy construction land and cultivated land in2002-2011.
(2) Through factor analysis,"Economic development","development of water affairs","population scale" and "water resources development" are the anthropogenic common factor which influence socioeconomic system water circulation of ganzhou district; Using hierarchical clustering method, give a mark to each year anthropogenic factor effect and hierarchical classify. Then reach that the force human behavior to water resources system more and more better.
(3) Using system dynamics method analysis show, Scene1——based on the historical development trend of soil and water resources development pattern, water amount under overall, but in the process of ecological water use is reduced year by year, land development is limited to agricultural land and construction land, grassland and garden land surface and other unused land area are no change; Scene2——soil and water resources development pattern under the background of rapid urbanization, is superior to the scene1in urbanization and ecological environment, but gross water surged as the biggest drawbacks, Considering the agricultural irrigation water in2030still occupies about63%of the total water use, Scene3——adjusting agricultural planting structure development pattern, continue to reduce the agricultural irrigation water use, improve agricultural Unilateral water output effect, Predict agricultural land2030increase7100ha, construction land increase500ha. Gross of water resource utilization reduce to611million m3, water change trend of four departments show that: industrial water increase year by year, and then, in2027begin to decline, domestic water generally increased slightly, in2029began to decline, agricultural water reduce, and ecological water increase.
引文
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