中国劳动力供求变化研究
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摘要
本文的主旨是研究中国劳动力供求的变化。中国劳动力的供求始终保持不平衡的态势,这种不平衡表现在我国在上个世纪末面临巨大“民工潮”的冲击,而近年来许多地区和行业却出现“民工荒”。因此,分析我国劳动力供求变化的趋势和原因,制定有效的政策措施,对于发挥现阶段劳动力资源的比较优势,提高劳动力资源的利用效率,促进经济快速发展具有重要的现实意义。
本文从劳动力供求的总量变化、结构变化入手,着重分析了1978年以后我国劳动力供求结构变化的原因;接着从人口年龄结构变动入手,分析由于人口年龄结构变动所产生的经济效应、所带来的劳动力供求的变化;然后运用实证分析方法,从劳动力供给与需求两个角度出发,分析我国劳动力在劳动力参与率、劳动力供给时间以及就业方面所发生波动的趋势、原因;最后归纳出主要的结论与政策含义。
我国自改革开放以来,劳动力供求总量发生了阶段性变化,劳动力供求结构性矛盾也在加大。本文通过对相关数据的分析发现:从产业上看,劳动力已经由以前集中的第一、二产业向第三产业转移,而且这种转移的趋势会逐步加强;从行业上看,劳动力目前正向制造业、交通运输仓储和邮电通信业、批发零售贸易和餐饮业上转移;从地区上看,劳动力目前主要集中于东部地区,特别是东南部地区成为劳动力转移的主要选择区域。
在对影响劳动力供求的基本因素即人口年龄结构变动的分析中,本文重点讨论了由于人口年龄结构变动带来的劳动力供求的变动,这些变动虽然加大了劳动力供求矛盾,但是也为中国能否利用“人口红利”推动经济发展提供了重要机遇。随着人口老龄化进程的加快,劳动力人口比重下降,“人口红利”势必会逐步消失。因此,一方面中国要采取措施确保“人口红利”有效利用,另一方面,要在“人口红利”消失之前,制定新的发展战略,确保中国新的竞争优势。
在对劳动力供给变化的具体分析上,本文从劳动力参与率与劳动力供给时间两个方面入手。通过实证分析发现,1978年以来我国劳动力参与率一直保持在较高的水平上,但是进入到上个世纪90年代之后,劳动力参与率开始下降。引起这种变化的主要原因是宏观经济形势、失业、教育状况以及劳动者生活水平的变化。
近年来,随着工资的缓慢上升,我国劳动力供给时间呈不断上扬态势。不过我国劳动者收入水平仍然相对偏低,劳动力供给(时间)曲线尚未出现向后弯曲的态势。从长远来看,由于工资的变化、就业制度健全、劳动者自身生理因素与社会因素的影响,劳动力供给时间会逐步下降。
1978年后,我国的就业弹性在不停地波动,但是就业人数呈缓慢上升态势。这种变化与工资变动、经济增长、技术进步、结构调整有着密切的联系。从长期来看,为了充分利用劳动力资源,在“人口红利”尚未消失之前,为促进我国经济快速增长,制定有效的政策措施就显得格外重要。
本文试图在以下三点上有所创新:第一,从总量与结构两个方面来考察劳动力供求的变化。从现有的文献来看,许多学者在对劳动力供求的分析中,往往将总量矛盾与结构矛盾混为一谈,于是引发对目前中国劳动力是否处于“刘易斯拐点”的争议。因此对劳动力供求总量与供求结构的分别研究,对于把握我国劳动力供求的未来走势,针对劳动力供求出现的矛盾,特别是结构矛盾制定相关政策是很有必要的。第二,注重对人口年龄结构变动引发的劳动力供求变化的分析。由于以往关于劳动力供求分析往往从静态方面入手,这对全面研究劳动力供求变化带来了一定的局限,只有将劳动力供求的研究视角由以往关注的对人口增长、人口规模的变化转向对人口年龄结构变动的分析,才能深刻剖析人口年龄结构变动对劳动力供求以及经济发展的影响。第三,从劳动力参与率、劳动力供给时间、就业三个方面对劳动力供求变化进行了较深入的分析。
The main goal of the dissertation is to study the change of labor supply and demand (LSD) in China. China’s LSD keeps in an unbalanced situation all the time. This imbalance leads to being confronted with the enormous "farmers frenzied hunting for work in cities" in last century, and the labor shortage phenomenon in many areas and industries in recent years. Therefore, it is practically important to analyze the trends and causes of the LSD change in China. And the effective policies and measures are significant to improve the utilization ratio to human resources.
The causes of the change of LSD in China since 1978 are studied from the total quantity and structure. Economic effects of population change are also analyzed through the factor that affects LSD. And the LSD change connected with population change is discussed as well. Through the empirical analysis method, the practical trend and cause of labor participation rate, the work time and employment are studied from both the labor supply and the labor demand. The corresponding policy suggestions are provided in the last chapter of the dissertation. And the main conclusions and policy meanings are presented meanwhile.
Stage change happened since the reform and opening. However, the structure contradiction of LSD is enlarged at mean time. Through the analysis of relevant data the dissertation comes to conclusion as follow: the labor forces in the primary industry and the secondary industry have already shifted towards the tertiary industry, and the trend still continues; the labor forces are shifting towards construction, transportation, communication, retail trading and restaurant industry.; now the labor force is concentrated to the eastern regions, especially to the southeast headquarter areas where is apt to be the main destination of the labor force.
The labor force population alteration brought by population change is mainly discussed following the analysis of essential elements that affect the labor force. On one hand, the changes of labor force population and population itself are increasing the contradiction of LSD; on the other hand, they also provide an important basis on which China can make use of population bonus to drive economic growth. However, with the accelerated trend of population aging, the rate of labor force population to total population is decreasing. So the population bonus will be definitely disappeared.
Therefore, on one hand, it is necessary to adopt measures to ensure population bonus in China, on the other hand, new development strategy must be worked out to cultivate new competitive advantages before the population bonus disappears.
When the labor supply change is studied, the labor force participation rate (LFPR) and the labor force supply time are taken into account in the dissertation. From 1978, the labor force participation rate in China is high, but the LFPR is decreasing nowadays. The empirical analysis on this trend reveals that the wage, macroeconomic situation, unemployment, education and living status are the important factors to affect the labor force participation rate.
Recently, labor force supply time in China has been increasing. Through the analysis, it could be found that the backward trend has not appeared in the labor force supply curve, which means that labor income is still at a relatively low level. With the change of wage, the perfecting of employment institution, the influence of physiology and society, labor force supply time will be definitely decreasing in future.
Employment fluctuation in China also changes all the time though the general trend is that the employment number rises slowly. This change is raised by the inherent cause that affects employment change including the change of wage, economic development, technology innovation and structure adjustment. It is also closely connected with employment cost. So from the long-run viewpoint, the corresponding policies and measures for fully utilizing human resources and population bonus must be worked out before the population bonus disappears.
Three innovations are formed in this dissertation. Firstly, the changes of LSD are analyzed in both total quantity and structural way. So forth from available reference, when the LSD were analyzed, the contradiction of total quantity was always confused with contradiction of structure which raising the dispute that if China’s labor has been in the "Lewis inflexion ". So it is very significant to study the total quantity and structure of LSD respectively. It is very important to grasp the LSD change in the future. And it is essential to aim at the contradiction of LSD, especially the relevant policy for the structural contradiction. Secondly, main attention is paid to the analysis of the LSD change resulted from the change of population structure. In the past, when the labor force was studied, the supply and demand was always analyzed in a static state. Obviously there are many limitations in such kind of study on LSD change. The influence of population change on LSD and economical development could only be deeply investigated when the LSD research focus on population structure change rather than the population growth and population scale. Thirdly, in this dissertation, the LSD is analyzed on three aspects of the labor force participation rate, the supply time of labor force and employment.
本文从劳动力供求的总量变化、结构变化入手,着重分析了1978年以后我国劳动力供求结构变化的原因;接着从人口年龄结构变动入手,分析由于人口年龄结构变动所产生的经济效应、所带来的劳动力供求的变化;然后运用实证分析方法,从劳动力供给与需求两个角度出发,分析我国劳动力在劳动力参与率、劳动力供给时间以及就业方面所发生波动的趋势、原因;最后归纳出主要的结论与政策含义。
我国自改革开放以来,劳动力供求总量发生了阶段性变化,劳动力供求结构性矛盾也在加大。本文通过对相关数据的分析发现:从产业上看,劳动力已经由以前集中的第一、二产业向第三产业转移,而且这种转移的趋势会逐步加强;从行业上看,劳动力目前正向制造业、交通运输仓储和邮电通信业、批发零售贸易和餐饮业上转移;从地区上看,劳动力目前主要集中于东部地区,特别是东南部地区成为劳动力转移的主要选择区域。
在对影响劳动力供求的基本因素即人口年龄结构变动的分析中,本文重点讨论了由于人口年龄结构变动带来的劳动力供求的变动,这些变动虽然加大了劳动力供求矛盾,但是也为中国能否利用“人口红利”推动经济发展提供了重要机遇。随着人口老龄化进程的加快,劳动力人口比重下降,“人口红利”势必会逐步消失。因此,一方面中国要采取措施确保“人口红利”有效利用,另一方面,要在“人口红利”消失之前,制定新的发展战略,确保中国新的竞争优势。
在对劳动力供给变化的具体分析上,本文从劳动力参与率与劳动力供给时间两个方面入手。通过实证分析发现,1978年以来我国劳动力参与率一直保持在较高的水平上,但是进入到上个世纪90年代之后,劳动力参与率开始下降。引起这种变化的主要原因是宏观经济形势、失业、教育状况以及劳动者生活水平的变化。
近年来,随着工资的缓慢上升,我国劳动力供给时间呈不断上扬态势。不过我国劳动者收入水平仍然相对偏低,劳动力供给(时间)曲线尚未出现向后弯曲的态势。从长远来看,由于工资的变化、就业制度健全、劳动者自身生理因素与社会因素的影响,劳动力供给时间会逐步下降。
1978年后,我国的就业弹性在不停地波动,但是就业人数呈缓慢上升态势。这种变化与工资变动、经济增长、技术进步、结构调整有着密切的联系。从长期来看,为了充分利用劳动力资源,在“人口红利”尚未消失之前,为促进我国经济快速增长,制定有效的政策措施就显得格外重要。
本文试图在以下三点上有所创新:第一,从总量与结构两个方面来考察劳动力供求的变化。从现有的文献来看,许多学者在对劳动力供求的分析中,往往将总量矛盾与结构矛盾混为一谈,于是引发对目前中国劳动力是否处于“刘易斯拐点”的争议。因此对劳动力供求总量与供求结构的分别研究,对于把握我国劳动力供求的未来走势,针对劳动力供求出现的矛盾,特别是结构矛盾制定相关政策是很有必要的。第二,注重对人口年龄结构变动引发的劳动力供求变化的分析。由于以往关于劳动力供求分析往往从静态方面入手,这对全面研究劳动力供求变化带来了一定的局限,只有将劳动力供求的研究视角由以往关注的对人口增长、人口规模的变化转向对人口年龄结构变动的分析,才能深刻剖析人口年龄结构变动对劳动力供求以及经济发展的影响。第三,从劳动力参与率、劳动力供给时间、就业三个方面对劳动力供求变化进行了较深入的分析。
The main goal of the dissertation is to study the change of labor supply and demand (LSD) in China. China’s LSD keeps in an unbalanced situation all the time. This imbalance leads to being confronted with the enormous "farmers frenzied hunting for work in cities" in last century, and the labor shortage phenomenon in many areas and industries in recent years. Therefore, it is practically important to analyze the trends and causes of the LSD change in China. And the effective policies and measures are significant to improve the utilization ratio to human resources.
The causes of the change of LSD in China since 1978 are studied from the total quantity and structure. Economic effects of population change are also analyzed through the factor that affects LSD. And the LSD change connected with population change is discussed as well. Through the empirical analysis method, the practical trend and cause of labor participation rate, the work time and employment are studied from both the labor supply and the labor demand. The corresponding policy suggestions are provided in the last chapter of the dissertation. And the main conclusions and policy meanings are presented meanwhile.
Stage change happened since the reform and opening. However, the structure contradiction of LSD is enlarged at mean time. Through the analysis of relevant data the dissertation comes to conclusion as follow: the labor forces in the primary industry and the secondary industry have already shifted towards the tertiary industry, and the trend still continues; the labor forces are shifting towards construction, transportation, communication, retail trading and restaurant industry.; now the labor force is concentrated to the eastern regions, especially to the southeast headquarter areas where is apt to be the main destination of the labor force.
The labor force population alteration brought by population change is mainly discussed following the analysis of essential elements that affect the labor force. On one hand, the changes of labor force population and population itself are increasing the contradiction of LSD; on the other hand, they also provide an important basis on which China can make use of population bonus to drive economic growth. However, with the accelerated trend of population aging, the rate of labor force population to total population is decreasing. So the population bonus will be definitely disappeared.
Therefore, on one hand, it is necessary to adopt measures to ensure population bonus in China, on the other hand, new development strategy must be worked out to cultivate new competitive advantages before the population bonus disappears.
When the labor supply change is studied, the labor force participation rate (LFPR) and the labor force supply time are taken into account in the dissertation. From 1978, the labor force participation rate in China is high, but the LFPR is decreasing nowadays. The empirical analysis on this trend reveals that the wage, macroeconomic situation, unemployment, education and living status are the important factors to affect the labor force participation rate.
Recently, labor force supply time in China has been increasing. Through the analysis, it could be found that the backward trend has not appeared in the labor force supply curve, which means that labor income is still at a relatively low level. With the change of wage, the perfecting of employment institution, the influence of physiology and society, labor force supply time will be definitely decreasing in future.
Employment fluctuation in China also changes all the time though the general trend is that the employment number rises slowly. This change is raised by the inherent cause that affects employment change including the change of wage, economic development, technology innovation and structure adjustment. It is also closely connected with employment cost. So from the long-run viewpoint, the corresponding policies and measures for fully utilizing human resources and population bonus must be worked out before the population bonus disappears.
Three innovations are formed in this dissertation. Firstly, the changes of LSD are analyzed in both total quantity and structural way. So forth from available reference, when the LSD were analyzed, the contradiction of total quantity was always confused with contradiction of structure which raising the dispute that if China’s labor has been in the "Lewis inflexion ". So it is very significant to study the total quantity and structure of LSD respectively. It is very important to grasp the LSD change in the future. And it is essential to aim at the contradiction of LSD, especially the relevant policy for the structural contradiction. Secondly, main attention is paid to the analysis of the LSD change resulted from the change of population structure. In the past, when the labor force was studied, the supply and demand was always analyzed in a static state. Obviously there are many limitations in such kind of study on LSD change. The influence of population change on LSD and economical development could only be deeply investigated when the LSD research focus on population structure change rather than the population growth and population scale. Thirdly, in this dissertation, the LSD is analyzed on three aspects of the labor force participation rate, the supply time of labor force and employment.
引文
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