新产品上市阶段供应链运作的鲁棒决策分析
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摘要
创新是企业发展的永恒主题，成功推出新产品、新服务与新解决方案则是企业发展的核心诉求。新产品上市阶段作为成功推出新产品的关键环节，是典型的合作型工作链，需要企业内各部门及供应链各企业节点的参与与合作。然而新产品固有的创新性造成的市场信息缺失使得上市阶段运作面临巨大的风险和决策困难，可诱使供应链成员采取鲁棒的决策行为。基于此，本文研究新产品上市阶段企业鲁棒决策行为下的供应链运作管理问题。通过对新产品需求信息缺失特征及企业鲁棒决策行为刻画，揭示鲁棒行为下的新产品供应链决策特点，进而紧紧围绕新产品上市阶段的重要决策，设计供应链合作激励机制与管理干预举措，优化新产品供应链，促进新产品成功推出。具体做了以下几个方面的工作：
首先，利用分布鲁棒方法，建立基本的新产品供应链，构建本文的研究基础。通过与需求分布信息完全已知的传统供应链的数值分析结果比较，揭示出信息缺失的新产品供应链的特点。并且，结合已有实证研究结果提出了提高新产品上市成功率的思路：加强零售商激励、加强信息获取、加强营销和运营的协调，用于解决以下新产品上市的渠道、铺货、定价和订货等具体决策问题。
面对经销商因承担较大销售风险不愿意大量铺货，难以建立起新产品的销售渠道的现实问题，文章在新产品上市的现行操作模式基础上，设计了“VMI+寄售+返利”的供应链契约，研究了面对新产品市场信息缺失，制造商和零售商都存在鲁棒决策行为的供应链。通过定理证明了该契约能实现零售商绩效改进的同时激励零售商制定较低零售价格，从而有利于快速有效地建立起新产品销售渠道，支持新产品入市，且发现该供应链具有很强的稳定性和适应性。
面对新产品市场信息缺失、扩散不确定造成的上市阶段铺货决策困难，文章试图通过多个市场预测来更准确地描述新产品上市的需求，构建了基于多个市场预测的新产品铺货决策模型，并以CVaR风险指标定量化地度量了铺货决策的风险，以最低期望收益为约束，利用worst-case鲁棒优化方法研究了对每种预测出现的可能性完全无法估计以及能粗略估计这两种情况下的最优铺货决策。数值分析通过将多市场预测与单一市场预测、及加权平均策略下的铺货和绩效比较发现鲁棒决策行为下的铺货决策相对保守，但在防范新产品上市后的小概率事件风险上有优势，且能保证在各种新产品市场情形下获得平稳回报，进一步还发现了该方法的有效性和鲁棒性。
在“营销和运营相互协调”的研究视角下，文章还研究了有鲁棒决策行为的零售商对新产品的定价订货进行联合决策的问题，通过优化求解得到新产品鲁棒最优定价与订货决策，及期望收益的上下界。研究发现在鲁棒决策行为下，与单一决策相比，联合决策方式推出新产品能带来巨大的绩效改进，通过运营和营销的相互调整和配合也使得新产品供应链更稳定，能更有效地应对上市过程中的不确定性。
最后，在确定了鲁棒联合决策对信息缺失的新产品供应链的价值基础上，结合营销学实证研究结果，刻画了同时存在价格参考效应和价格质量效应的新产品价格需求函数，并进一步分析了不同创新度新产品的消费者价格心理特点。研究结果发现了适合不同创新度新产品的营销策略，从理论上印证了营销实证方法得到的结论，同时发现消费者的参考价格对于新产品上市的重要性。
随着对新产品上市供应链运作的需求特征、风险来源、决策行为的进一步认识，以及不确定性鲁棒决策理论方法自身的进一步完善，新产品上市管理中的问题必将得到更深入的关注和研究。
Innovation is an eternal theme for enterprise development, and successful launch ofnew products, new services and new solution is the core requirement of enterprisedevelopment. Launching stage is crucial for new products successfully entering into themarket, which is a typical multiple departments work chain, requiring the supply chainnodes participation and cooperation. However, the lack of new products’ demandinformation makes supply chain operation challenged and risky, and leads to thedecision-maker show robust behavior. Based on this, this article researches the operationdecisions of new products launch stage by considering the robust decision-makingbehavior. In this paper, we describe new product demand information missing features, toreveal the impact of robust decision-making behavior on new products operatingdecisions, and then design cooperation incentive mechanism and managementinterventions tightly around the important decisions in new product introducing phase, topromote new product successful launch. This paper mainly talks about followingquestions:
First，according to distribution free robust method and game theory, we establish thebasis new product supply chain, which is the foundation of this paper. By comparion withthe traditional supply chain which completely knows demand distribution, we reveal thatrobust game with limited information is more efficiency and valuable for retailer andwhole supply chain. Furether, combing with previous empirical findings, we proposesome ways to improve the rate of successfully launching new product, such as:strengthening the incentives for retailers, strengthening the information retrieval,strengthening the cooperation of marketing and operations, which will be used to solvethe following problems in new product launching stage.
Second，the realistic problem hat dealers would not like to shop a lot of goodsbecause of the larger sales risk, makes it difficult to build up new product sales channels.We design “VMI+sales rebate+consignment” contract based on current new productlaunch operating mode, to study the supply chain for both of manufacture and retailerhave robust behavior when facing the information missing. Through robust game analysis,it found that the contract can reducing the risk of retailers, and improve retailersperformance, and then incentive retailers quickly and efficiently build new product saleschannels, to support the new product into the market, furthermore, this supply chain has a strong stability and adaptability.
Third, the uncertainty of the new product diffusion makes distribution decision risky.In this article, we describe the demand more exactly with multiple demand forecastings,and establish the distribution decision model. By use of CVaR to measure the distributionrisk and worst-case robust optimization method, we discuss the model under twoscenarios including completely unknown and partial known the the probability of eachforecasting. The simulations show the difference between our method and the methodonly one forcasting. When comparing with average strategy, the performance of ourmehod is conservative, and takes advantage in dealing with the small probability event,further, we find the effectiveness and robustness of our WCVaR.
At last, under the prospect of “coordination marketing and operation”, we studythe new product pricing and inventory decision with robust behavior when facing thedemand information missing. By optimizing method, we get the optimal price and stockquantity and the upper and lower bounds of expected profit. The result shows that jointdecision can make the operations and marketing adjustment and cooperation with eachother, and make the new product supply chain more stable, and effectively dealing theuncertainty in launching process.
Based on the value of joint decision, combing with a lot of empirical studies aboutconsumer behavior in marketing, we add the consumer price psychology into robustpricing and inventory decision problem for new product, propose the price demandfunction with price-quality effect and reference price effect, and analyze the consumerprice psychological characteristics for new products with different degree innovation.According the result, we put forward the suitable marketing strategy for differentinnovation degree new products, which just confirms the result of empirical studies;moreover, we find the importance of consumer reference price.
Along with the demand characteristics, risk resources and decision behavior of newproduct supply chain operations be further recognized, the uncertain theory be furtherimproved, the new product launch problems will get more enough concern and research.
首先，利用分布鲁棒方法，建立基本的新产品供应链，构建本文的研究基础。通过与需求分布信息完全已知的传统供应链的数值分析结果比较，揭示出信息缺失的新产品供应链的特点。并且，结合已有实证研究结果提出了提高新产品上市成功率的思路：加强零售商激励、加强信息获取、加强营销和运营的协调，用于解决以下新产品上市的渠道、铺货、定价和订货等具体决策问题。
面对经销商因承担较大销售风险不愿意大量铺货，难以建立起新产品的销售渠道的现实问题，文章在新产品上市的现行操作模式基础上，设计了“VMI+寄售+返利”的供应链契约，研究了面对新产品市场信息缺失，制造商和零售商都存在鲁棒决策行为的供应链。通过定理证明了该契约能实现零售商绩效改进的同时激励零售商制定较低零售价格，从而有利于快速有效地建立起新产品销售渠道，支持新产品入市，且发现该供应链具有很强的稳定性和适应性。
面对新产品市场信息缺失、扩散不确定造成的上市阶段铺货决策困难，文章试图通过多个市场预测来更准确地描述新产品上市的需求，构建了基于多个市场预测的新产品铺货决策模型，并以CVaR风险指标定量化地度量了铺货决策的风险，以最低期望收益为约束，利用worst-case鲁棒优化方法研究了对每种预测出现的可能性完全无法估计以及能粗略估计这两种情况下的最优铺货决策。数值分析通过将多市场预测与单一市场预测、及加权平均策略下的铺货和绩效比较发现鲁棒决策行为下的铺货决策相对保守，但在防范新产品上市后的小概率事件风险上有优势，且能保证在各种新产品市场情形下获得平稳回报，进一步还发现了该方法的有效性和鲁棒性。
在“营销和运营相互协调”的研究视角下，文章还研究了有鲁棒决策行为的零售商对新产品的定价订货进行联合决策的问题，通过优化求解得到新产品鲁棒最优定价与订货决策，及期望收益的上下界。研究发现在鲁棒决策行为下，与单一决策相比，联合决策方式推出新产品能带来巨大的绩效改进，通过运营和营销的相互调整和配合也使得新产品供应链更稳定，能更有效地应对上市过程中的不确定性。
最后，在确定了鲁棒联合决策对信息缺失的新产品供应链的价值基础上，结合营销学实证研究结果，刻画了同时存在价格参考效应和价格质量效应的新产品价格需求函数，并进一步分析了不同创新度新产品的消费者价格心理特点。研究结果发现了适合不同创新度新产品的营销策略，从理论上印证了营销实证方法得到的结论，同时发现消费者的参考价格对于新产品上市的重要性。
随着对新产品上市供应链运作的需求特征、风险来源、决策行为的进一步认识，以及不确定性鲁棒决策理论方法自身的进一步完善，新产品上市管理中的问题必将得到更深入的关注和研究。
Innovation is an eternal theme for enterprise development, and successful launch ofnew products, new services and new solution is the core requirement of enterprisedevelopment. Launching stage is crucial for new products successfully entering into themarket, which is a typical multiple departments work chain, requiring the supply chainnodes participation and cooperation. However, the lack of new products’ demandinformation makes supply chain operation challenged and risky, and leads to thedecision-maker show robust behavior. Based on this, this article researches the operationdecisions of new products launch stage by considering the robust decision-makingbehavior. In this paper, we describe new product demand information missing features, toreveal the impact of robust decision-making behavior on new products operatingdecisions, and then design cooperation incentive mechanism and managementinterventions tightly around the important decisions in new product introducing phase, topromote new product successful launch. This paper mainly talks about followingquestions:
First，according to distribution free robust method and game theory, we establish thebasis new product supply chain, which is the foundation of this paper. By comparion withthe traditional supply chain which completely knows demand distribution, we reveal thatrobust game with limited information is more efficiency and valuable for retailer andwhole supply chain. Furether, combing with previous empirical findings, we proposesome ways to improve the rate of successfully launching new product, such as:strengthening the incentives for retailers, strengthening the information retrieval,strengthening the cooperation of marketing and operations, which will be used to solvethe following problems in new product launching stage.
Second，the realistic problem hat dealers would not like to shop a lot of goodsbecause of the larger sales risk, makes it difficult to build up new product sales channels.We design “VMI+sales rebate+consignment” contract based on current new productlaunch operating mode, to study the supply chain for both of manufacture and retailerhave robust behavior when facing the information missing. Through robust game analysis,it found that the contract can reducing the risk of retailers, and improve retailersperformance, and then incentive retailers quickly and efficiently build new product saleschannels, to support the new product into the market, furthermore, this supply chain has a strong stability and adaptability.
Third, the uncertainty of the new product diffusion makes distribution decision risky.In this article, we describe the demand more exactly with multiple demand forecastings,and establish the distribution decision model. By use of CVaR to measure the distributionrisk and worst-case robust optimization method, we discuss the model under twoscenarios including completely unknown and partial known the the probability of eachforecasting. The simulations show the difference between our method and the methodonly one forcasting. When comparing with average strategy, the performance of ourmehod is conservative, and takes advantage in dealing with the small probability event,further, we find the effectiveness and robustness of our WCVaR.
At last, under the prospect of “coordination marketing and operation”, we studythe new product pricing and inventory decision with robust behavior when facing thedemand information missing. By optimizing method, we get the optimal price and stockquantity and the upper and lower bounds of expected profit. The result shows that jointdecision can make the operations and marketing adjustment and cooperation with eachother, and make the new product supply chain more stable, and effectively dealing theuncertainty in launching process.
Based on the value of joint decision, combing with a lot of empirical studies aboutconsumer behavior in marketing, we add the consumer price psychology into robustpricing and inventory decision problem for new product, propose the price demandfunction with price-quality effect and reference price effect, and analyze the consumerprice psychological characteristics for new products with different degree innovation.According the result, we put forward the suitable marketing strategy for differentinnovation degree new products, which just confirms the result of empirical studies;moreover, we find the importance of consumer reference price.
Along with the demand characteristics, risk resources and decision behavior of newproduct supply chain operations be further recognized, the uncertain theory be furtherimproved, the new product launch problems will get more enough concern and research.
引文
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