城市发展视角下的商品住宅价格作用机理及调控研究
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摘要
商品住宅价格是住房商品化背景下住宅市场研究的核心和社会各界关注的热点问题。深入研究城市发展因素对商品住宅价格的作用机理,有助于政府厘清调控思路,明确调控重点和方向。本文从城市发展视角出发,通过文献梳理,系统分析了城市发展因素与商品住宅价格之间的关系,建立了融合城市经济学、住宅经济学和价值价格理论为一体的商品住宅价格影响因素指标体系,提出了两者之间分析的理论框架。采用主成分-神经网络模型对城市发展因素与商品住宅价格进行了拟合分析。引入SEM模型,构建了城市发展视角下的商品住宅价格作用机理结构方程模型,分析了静态影响机理下价格调控的直接因素和间接因素,区分了需求主导因素和供给主导因素。进一步将SEM(PLS)模型转化,借助系统动力学模型,实现了动态仿真研究,探索了动态影响机理下价格调控的重要因素。结合对商品住宅价格调控的因素综合分类,从中央政府和地方政府两个层面设计了调控模式,分析了相应调控策略。
本研究所取得的成果概述如下:
(1)建立了城市发展视角下商品住宅价格影响因素指标体系,构建了两者之间关系研究的理论分析框架。
(2)采用主成分-神经网络模型,通过对城市发展因素与商品住宅价格的拟合分析,证明了城市发展因素对商品住宅价格具有很好的解释能力。
(3)引入PLS结构方程模型,构建了城市发展视角下商品住宅价格作用机理的静态分析模型。研究发现,居民支付与消费能力、商品住宅产出水平和人口状况是影响商品住宅价格的3类直接因素,其他因素为间接影响因素;区分了需求主导因素和供给主导因素。
(4)尝试将SEM(PLS)与SD结合,构建了城市发展因素与商品住宅价格的系统动力学模型,对其作用机理进行了动态模拟仿真研究,在直接影响因素基础上,进一步识别出影响商品住宅价格的重要因素。
(5)通过对调控因素的综合分类,从中央政府和地方政府两个层面设计了商品住宅价格调控模式,提出了相应调控策略。
Commercial housing price is the core issue in the housing market research and also raises much attention from the community in the context of the commercialization of housing. Research on the mechanism of commercial housing prices with the reaction of urban development will help the government to clarify the regulation measures, define the focus and path of the regulations. From the urban development perspective through the literature it analyzes the relationship between urban development factors and commercial housing price, sets up factors index system which affects the price of commercial housing integrating the urban economics, housing economics and price theory, establishes the theoretical framework of analysis between the two.
It takes the principal component - neural network model to give a fitting analysis between the urban development factors and commercial housing price, introduces SEM models and constructs the structural equation model of commercial housing price mechanism under the perspective of urban development to analyze the direct factors and indirect factors of price regulation mechanism under the static effects, distinguishes the leading driven factors of the demand and supply, then transform the SEM (PLS) model with the system dynamics model to achieve a dynamic simulation study to explore the important factors of price regulation mechanism under the dynamic effects, finally conducts the regulation model from the level of centre government and local government and analyses the corresponsive regulation strategies after the classification of the factors.
It obtains some results summarized as follows:
(1)Through literature review on the relevant researches both at home and abroad, it conducts the factors index system which affects the price of commercial housing under the perspective of urban development and set up the theoretical framework between the two.
(2)It uses principal components - neural network model to prove that urban development factors have a good explanatory power on the price of commercial housing through the fitting analysis between the urban development factors and the price of commercial housing.
(3)It introduces the PLS structural equation model to set up the static analysis model of the evolving of commercial housing price under the perspective of urban development. It finds that residents ability to pay, the production of the commercial housing and the population are the three direct factors affecting the price while others are indirect factors; distinguishes the leading driven factors of demand and supply.
(4)It tries to integrate the SEM (PLS) with SD and constructs the systematic dynamics model of urban development factors and commercial housing price. A dynamic simulant emulational research is conducted on its function mechanism. Based on the direct affecting factors, the important factors influencing the commercial housing price are indentified.
(5)It classifies the factors and designs regulation model for the commercial housing price from the level of centre government and local government which offers corresponsive regulation strategies.
本研究所取得的成果概述如下:
(1)建立了城市发展视角下商品住宅价格影响因素指标体系,构建了两者之间关系研究的理论分析框架。
(2)采用主成分-神经网络模型,通过对城市发展因素与商品住宅价格的拟合分析,证明了城市发展因素对商品住宅价格具有很好的解释能力。
(3)引入PLS结构方程模型,构建了城市发展视角下商品住宅价格作用机理的静态分析模型。研究发现,居民支付与消费能力、商品住宅产出水平和人口状况是影响商品住宅价格的3类直接因素,其他因素为间接影响因素;区分了需求主导因素和供给主导因素。
(4)尝试将SEM(PLS)与SD结合,构建了城市发展因素与商品住宅价格的系统动力学模型,对其作用机理进行了动态模拟仿真研究,在直接影响因素基础上,进一步识别出影响商品住宅价格的重要因素。
(5)通过对调控因素的综合分类,从中央政府和地方政府两个层面设计了商品住宅价格调控模式,提出了相应调控策略。
Commercial housing price is the core issue in the housing market research and also raises much attention from the community in the context of the commercialization of housing. Research on the mechanism of commercial housing prices with the reaction of urban development will help the government to clarify the regulation measures, define the focus and path of the regulations. From the urban development perspective through the literature it analyzes the relationship between urban development factors and commercial housing price, sets up factors index system which affects the price of commercial housing integrating the urban economics, housing economics and price theory, establishes the theoretical framework of analysis between the two.
It takes the principal component - neural network model to give a fitting analysis between the urban development factors and commercial housing price, introduces SEM models and constructs the structural equation model of commercial housing price mechanism under the perspective of urban development to analyze the direct factors and indirect factors of price regulation mechanism under the static effects, distinguishes the leading driven factors of the demand and supply, then transform the SEM (PLS) model with the system dynamics model to achieve a dynamic simulation study to explore the important factors of price regulation mechanism under the dynamic effects, finally conducts the regulation model from the level of centre government and local government and analyses the corresponsive regulation strategies after the classification of the factors.
It obtains some results summarized as follows:
(1)Through literature review on the relevant researches both at home and abroad, it conducts the factors index system which affects the price of commercial housing under the perspective of urban development and set up the theoretical framework between the two.
(2)It uses principal components - neural network model to prove that urban development factors have a good explanatory power on the price of commercial housing through the fitting analysis between the urban development factors and the price of commercial housing.
(3)It introduces the PLS structural equation model to set up the static analysis model of the evolving of commercial housing price under the perspective of urban development. It finds that residents ability to pay, the production of the commercial housing and the population are the three direct factors affecting the price while others are indirect factors; distinguishes the leading driven factors of demand and supply.
(4)It tries to integrate the SEM (PLS) with SD and constructs the systematic dynamics model of urban development factors and commercial housing price. A dynamic simulant emulational research is conducted on its function mechanism. Based on the direct affecting factors, the important factors influencing the commercial housing price are indentified.
(5)It classifies the factors and designs regulation model for the commercial housing price from the level of centre government and local government which offers corresponsive regulation strategies.
引文
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