制造业价值链攀升机理研究
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摘要
改革开放以来，我国制造业通过廉价生产要素形成的比较优势加入国际分工，逐渐成为世界制造中心。然而，制造业产品的大量出口为中国赢得“世界工厂”头衔的同时，并没有实现我国制造业攀升价值链高端的目标，反而面临价值链低端锁定，以及由于资源、能源、环境等刚性约束以及要素成本快速上升导致的“贫困化增长”等诸多风险。因此，研究制造业价值链现状及攀升机理，对于明确我国制造业发展现状及存在问题，推动制造业价值链攀升等具有重要意义。
本文以江苏省制造业为例，从价值链攀升现状出发，依次研究了制造业价值链攀升影响因素、动力与阻力、攀升路径、攀升效率、攀升实例、攀升措施与政策等几个方面的内容。
在界定价值、价值链、价值链攀升等相关概念的基础上，运用技术密集度分类、生产要素密集度分类、C-D函数产出弹性三种方法对价值链攀升现状进行综合测度，研究表明，从总体上看，江苏制造业多数行业仍处于全球价值链中低端环节。运用VAR模型对制造业价值链攀升的影响因素分析表明，生产性服务业、技术创新、产业集群和规模经济等因素对制造业价值链攀升具有重要影响。基于索洛模型及数理经济模型的推演则进一步从理论上阐明了生产性服务、技术创新、规模经济等变量促进制造业价值链攀升的内在机理。
运用经济与产业关联分析、博弈论、主成分分析及面板计量经济模型，从生产性服务业、技术创新、对外贸易与地区专业化、FDI与区际产业转移四个层面研究制造业价值链攀升动力与阻力。研究表明，首先，江苏生产性服务业对制造业的拉动作用偏弱，技术创新与制度创新的协同是推动制造业攀升价值链高端的重要动力；其次，制造业价值链攀升与地区专业化、企业规模三者之间存在长期的均衡关系，但长期看，外贸出口对制造业价值链攀升没有明显的促进作用。再次，国际产业转移对制造业价值链攀升并无明显的促进作用，而区际产业转移对制造业价值链攀升则表现出明显的正向推动作用。
运用系统动力学对制造业价值链攀升路径的分析表明，投入增长与制造业价值链攀升总水平呈正相关关系。以科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业、金融业、交通运输、仓储和邮政业等为代表的生产性服务业是制约制造业价值链攀升水平的重要因素。此外，产业集聚和企业规模、技术创新及信息化水平对制造业价值链攀升具有重要影响。
利用数据包络分析（DEA）和DEA-Malmquist指数分析方法对制造业价值链攀升效率的测度表明，三大要素密集度制造业价值链攀升效率存在随时期演变的动态差异，基本表现为波浪式曲折攀升模式，反映出制造业价值链攀升过程的非平衡性、非稳定性特征，但蕴含在其中的总体效率上升趋势较为明显。
对江苏装备制造业的实例研究表明，江苏装备制造业加工组装能力较强，并具备初步的品牌营销能力，但研发创新能力还有待进一步加强。其次，企业层面的研究表明，徐工集团与三一重工、中联重科的主营业务利润主要来自于价值链中的加工制造及品牌营销环节，而研发创新的利润率偏低。最后，产业规模、生产性服务、技术创新对装备制造业价值链攀升具有明显的促进作用，而外贸出口、产业集群对江苏装备制造业价值链攀升没有表现出明显的促进作用。
最后，从国际国内环境与制造业价值链攀升机理的结合中总结并提出制造业价值链攀升的关键措施及政策建议。
Since reform and opening-up, our country manufacturing industry joininternational division of labor through cheap production elements to form thecomparative advantage, gradually become the world manufacturing center. However,a large number of manufacturing product exports help China to win the title "worldfactory" at the same time, it does not achieve the goal of our national manufacturingindustry value chain upgrading to high-end, and face huge risk of value chain low-endlocking instead, as well as the rigid constraints such as resources, energy, environment,the cost caused by rapidly rising "immiserizing growth", and many other risks. Byresearch present situation of manufacturing industry value chain, and upgradingmechanism, we can clear the status quo and existing problems of China'smanufacturing industry, pushing up the manufacturing value chain upgrading. It is ofgreat significance.
Taking manufacturing industry of Jiangsu province as an example, this paperembarks from the rising status of value chain, in order of studying the influencefactors of manufacturing value chain rising, motivation and resistance, upgradingroute, upgrading efficiency, upgrading instance, upgrading measures, and policyaspects of content.
On the basis of related concepts such as definition of value, value chain andvalue chain upgrading, this paper uses three methods of technology intensityclassification, the factor intensity classification, C-D production function and theoutput elasticity to integrated measure of the status quo of value chain upgrading,research shows that, overall, most industry of Jiangsu manufacturing industry are stillin the global value chain low-end and mid-range segment. Using VAR model toanalysis the influence factors of rising manufacturing value chain shows that producerservices, technology innovation, industrial cluster and economies of scale has animportant influence on the rising manufacturing value chain. Deduction based onSolow model and the mathematical economic model is further expounded in theory ofproductive service, technology innovation, scale economy variables such as the innermechanism of the promoting the value chain upgrading of the manufacturing.
Use economic and industry association analysis, game theory, principalcomponent analysis and panel econometric models, from the producer services,technology innovation, foreign trade and regional specialization, FDI and interregional industry transfer four aspects research force and resistance ofmanufacturing value chain upgrading. Research shows that, first of all, Jiangsuproductive service industry have a weak pull function on the manufacturing, technicalinnovation and institutional innovation synergy have important power of pushing upmanufacturing value chain; Second, there is a long-term equilibrium relationshipamong manufacturing value chain upgrading, regional specialization and firm size,but from long time, foreign trade export value chain of manufacturing rise no obviousrole in promoting. Again, the international industrial transfer has no obvious role onmanufacturing value chain upgrading, while rising interregional industry transfershows obvious positive role on manufacturing value chain upgrading.
Using system dynamics to analysis the manufacturing value chain upgradingpath shows that investment growth and the total level of manufacturing value chainrising are positively related to relationship. The producer service which mainlyembodies scientific research, technical services and geological exploration, finance,transportation, warehousing and postal service is an important factor restricting therising levels of manufacturing value chain. In addition, the industrial cluster andenterprise scale, technology innovation and the informationization level haveimportant effects on rising manufacturing value chain.
Using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and DEA-Malmquist index analysismethod on the efficiency of the manufacturing value chain up measure shows thatthree elements concentration rising manufacturing value chain difference exists withthe time evolution of dynamic efficiency, the basic performance for wave winding upmode, reflecting rising manufacturing value chain excluding the balance and stabilitycharacteristics of the process, but it contains in it the overall efficiency of rising trendis more obvious.
The case study on the equipment manufacturing industry of Jiangsu provinceshows that the equipment manufacturing industry in Jiangsu province have thecapability of processing and assembly, and the preliminary ability in brand marketing,but the research and development innovation ability remains to be furtherstrengthened. Secondly, studies have shown that enterprise level with Sany Heavy,Zoomlion Heavy, XCMG's main business profit mainly comes from the processingand manufacturing of the value chain and brand marketing, research and developmentinnovation low profit margins. Finally, industrial scale, the productive service andtechnology innovation have an obvious role on the equipment manufacturing industry value chain promoting, and foreign trade export, the industry cluster in the equipmentmanufacturing industry do not show obvious role on equipment manufacturingindustry value chain promoting in Jiangsu province.
Finally, this paper summarizes and puts forward the key of the risingmanufacturing value chain of measures and policy recommendations from thecombination of international and domestic environment and mechanism ofmanufacturing value chain upgrading.
本文以江苏省制造业为例，从价值链攀升现状出发，依次研究了制造业价值链攀升影响因素、动力与阻力、攀升路径、攀升效率、攀升实例、攀升措施与政策等几个方面的内容。
在界定价值、价值链、价值链攀升等相关概念的基础上，运用技术密集度分类、生产要素密集度分类、C-D函数产出弹性三种方法对价值链攀升现状进行综合测度，研究表明，从总体上看，江苏制造业多数行业仍处于全球价值链中低端环节。运用VAR模型对制造业价值链攀升的影响因素分析表明，生产性服务业、技术创新、产业集群和规模经济等因素对制造业价值链攀升具有重要影响。基于索洛模型及数理经济模型的推演则进一步从理论上阐明了生产性服务、技术创新、规模经济等变量促进制造业价值链攀升的内在机理。
运用经济与产业关联分析、博弈论、主成分分析及面板计量经济模型，从生产性服务业、技术创新、对外贸易与地区专业化、FDI与区际产业转移四个层面研究制造业价值链攀升动力与阻力。研究表明，首先，江苏生产性服务业对制造业的拉动作用偏弱，技术创新与制度创新的协同是推动制造业攀升价值链高端的重要动力；其次，制造业价值链攀升与地区专业化、企业规模三者之间存在长期的均衡关系，但长期看，外贸出口对制造业价值链攀升没有明显的促进作用。再次，国际产业转移对制造业价值链攀升并无明显的促进作用，而区际产业转移对制造业价值链攀升则表现出明显的正向推动作用。
运用系统动力学对制造业价值链攀升路径的分析表明，投入增长与制造业价值链攀升总水平呈正相关关系。以科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业、金融业、交通运输、仓储和邮政业等为代表的生产性服务业是制约制造业价值链攀升水平的重要因素。此外，产业集聚和企业规模、技术创新及信息化水平对制造业价值链攀升具有重要影响。
利用数据包络分析（DEA）和DEA-Malmquist指数分析方法对制造业价值链攀升效率的测度表明，三大要素密集度制造业价值链攀升效率存在随时期演变的动态差异，基本表现为波浪式曲折攀升模式，反映出制造业价值链攀升过程的非平衡性、非稳定性特征，但蕴含在其中的总体效率上升趋势较为明显。
对江苏装备制造业的实例研究表明，江苏装备制造业加工组装能力较强，并具备初步的品牌营销能力，但研发创新能力还有待进一步加强。其次，企业层面的研究表明，徐工集团与三一重工、中联重科的主营业务利润主要来自于价值链中的加工制造及品牌营销环节，而研发创新的利润率偏低。最后，产业规模、生产性服务、技术创新对装备制造业价值链攀升具有明显的促进作用，而外贸出口、产业集群对江苏装备制造业价值链攀升没有表现出明显的促进作用。
最后，从国际国内环境与制造业价值链攀升机理的结合中总结并提出制造业价值链攀升的关键措施及政策建议。
Since reform and opening-up, our country manufacturing industry joininternational division of labor through cheap production elements to form thecomparative advantage, gradually become the world manufacturing center. However,a large number of manufacturing product exports help China to win the title "worldfactory" at the same time, it does not achieve the goal of our national manufacturingindustry value chain upgrading to high-end, and face huge risk of value chain low-endlocking instead, as well as the rigid constraints such as resources, energy, environment,the cost caused by rapidly rising "immiserizing growth", and many other risks. Byresearch present situation of manufacturing industry value chain, and upgradingmechanism, we can clear the status quo and existing problems of China'smanufacturing industry, pushing up the manufacturing value chain upgrading. It is ofgreat significance.
Taking manufacturing industry of Jiangsu province as an example, this paperembarks from the rising status of value chain, in order of studying the influencefactors of manufacturing value chain rising, motivation and resistance, upgradingroute, upgrading efficiency, upgrading instance, upgrading measures, and policyaspects of content.
On the basis of related concepts such as definition of value, value chain andvalue chain upgrading, this paper uses three methods of technology intensityclassification, the factor intensity classification, C-D production function and theoutput elasticity to integrated measure of the status quo of value chain upgrading,research shows that, overall, most industry of Jiangsu manufacturing industry are stillin the global value chain low-end and mid-range segment. Using VAR model toanalysis the influence factors of rising manufacturing value chain shows that producerservices, technology innovation, industrial cluster and economies of scale has animportant influence on the rising manufacturing value chain. Deduction based onSolow model and the mathematical economic model is further expounded in theory ofproductive service, technology innovation, scale economy variables such as the innermechanism of the promoting the value chain upgrading of the manufacturing.
Use economic and industry association analysis, game theory, principalcomponent analysis and panel econometric models, from the producer services,technology innovation, foreign trade and regional specialization, FDI and interregional industry transfer four aspects research force and resistance ofmanufacturing value chain upgrading. Research shows that, first of all, Jiangsuproductive service industry have a weak pull function on the manufacturing, technicalinnovation and institutional innovation synergy have important power of pushing upmanufacturing value chain; Second, there is a long-term equilibrium relationshipamong manufacturing value chain upgrading, regional specialization and firm size,but from long time, foreign trade export value chain of manufacturing rise no obviousrole in promoting. Again, the international industrial transfer has no obvious role onmanufacturing value chain upgrading, while rising interregional industry transfershows obvious positive role on manufacturing value chain upgrading.
Using system dynamics to analysis the manufacturing value chain upgradingpath shows that investment growth and the total level of manufacturing value chainrising are positively related to relationship. The producer service which mainlyembodies scientific research, technical services and geological exploration, finance,transportation, warehousing and postal service is an important factor restricting therising levels of manufacturing value chain. In addition, the industrial cluster andenterprise scale, technology innovation and the informationization level haveimportant effects on rising manufacturing value chain.
Using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and DEA-Malmquist index analysismethod on the efficiency of the manufacturing value chain up measure shows thatthree elements concentration rising manufacturing value chain difference exists withthe time evolution of dynamic efficiency, the basic performance for wave winding upmode, reflecting rising manufacturing value chain excluding the balance and stabilitycharacteristics of the process, but it contains in it the overall efficiency of rising trendis more obvious.
The case study on the equipment manufacturing industry of Jiangsu provinceshows that the equipment manufacturing industry in Jiangsu province have thecapability of processing and assembly, and the preliminary ability in brand marketing,but the research and development innovation ability remains to be furtherstrengthened. Secondly, studies have shown that enterprise level with Sany Heavy,Zoomlion Heavy, XCMG's main business profit mainly comes from the processingand manufacturing of the value chain and brand marketing, research and developmentinnovation low profit margins. Finally, industrial scale, the productive service andtechnology innovation have an obvious role on the equipment manufacturing industry value chain promoting, and foreign trade export, the industry cluster in the equipmentmanufacturing industry do not show obvious role on equipment manufacturingindustry value chain promoting in Jiangsu province.
Finally, this paper summarizes and puts forward the key of the risingmanufacturing value chain of measures and policy recommendations from thecombination of international and domestic environment and mechanism ofmanufacturing value chain upgrading.
引文
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