基于CGE模型的我国生物质能经济激励政策的研究
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摘要
能源是社会经济发展的重要物质保证。我国作为一个能源消费大国,能源的供求矛盾日益加剧,化石常规能源带来的环境问题也在不断加剧。因此寻求一种安全、清洁且储量丰富的能源资源具有非常重要的意义,生物质能就具备了以上特征,是一个很好的选择。合理开发生物质能源对经济、政治、环境、社会及国家安全等方面都具有非常重要的促进意义。
本文以我国现阶段积极发展生物质能源为背景,从理论和实例的角度,分析了我国发展生物质能的优势、劣势、机会以及威胁,并进一步总结了我国现行生物质能激励政策的激励效应；然后,在CGE(可计算的一般均衡)模型的基础上,采用单国静态模型—LHR模型,分析了生物质能的各项经济激励政策的效果。本文选择了征收能源税、调节能源产品价格以及同时征收能源税和增加政府补贴三种政策情景,从生物质能比重(生物质能源占能源总供给和总消费的比重)、产业效应(产出水平)、宏观效应以及环境影响来看政策对于激励生物质能发展的作用大小。
最后,本文总结了三个政策情景的优劣,同时结合国外一些成功的生物质能政策经验,在我国国情的基础上,提出了一些具有针对性的促进生物质能发展的对策及建议。
Energy guarantees the sustainable socio-economic development. As a country, like China, with great amount of energy consumption, the contradiction of energy supply and demand and the environment problem caused by fossil energy consumption are aggravated. So looking for safe, clean and abundant energy resources is very important. Bio-energy, or in other words, biomass energy, with the above characteristics is a good choice. Rationally developing bio-energy resources has a great significance in economy, politics, environment, society and national security.
On the background of developing bio-energy, this paper analyses the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats theoretically and practically, and summarizes the incentive effects of current polices. Then on the base of CGE model, LHR model that is a single-country static model is applied to analyze the effects of incentive polices. In detail, by choosing three policy scenarios including taxation of energy, adjusting the price of fossil energy and increasing government subsidy combined with taxation of energy, the effects from three aspects, which are the proportion of bio-energy (quantity of bio-energy resource accounting for the total supply or demand of energy), the output effect and Macro effect, were analyzed.
Combining the successful experience from abroad with the situation of our country, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
本文以我国现阶段积极发展生物质能源为背景,从理论和实例的角度,分析了我国发展生物质能的优势、劣势、机会以及威胁,并进一步总结了我国现行生物质能激励政策的激励效应；然后,在CGE(可计算的一般均衡)模型的基础上,采用单国静态模型—LHR模型,分析了生物质能的各项经济激励政策的效果。本文选择了征收能源税、调节能源产品价格以及同时征收能源税和增加政府补贴三种政策情景,从生物质能比重(生物质能源占能源总供给和总消费的比重)、产业效应(产出水平)、宏观效应以及环境影响来看政策对于激励生物质能发展的作用大小。
最后,本文总结了三个政策情景的优劣,同时结合国外一些成功的生物质能政策经验,在我国国情的基础上,提出了一些具有针对性的促进生物质能发展的对策及建议。
Energy guarantees the sustainable socio-economic development. As a country, like China, with great amount of energy consumption, the contradiction of energy supply and demand and the environment problem caused by fossil energy consumption are aggravated. So looking for safe, clean and abundant energy resources is very important. Bio-energy, or in other words, biomass energy, with the above characteristics is a good choice. Rationally developing bio-energy resources has a great significance in economy, politics, environment, society and national security.
On the background of developing bio-energy, this paper analyses the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats theoretically and practically, and summarizes the incentive effects of current polices. Then on the base of CGE model, LHR model that is a single-country static model is applied to analyze the effects of incentive polices. In detail, by choosing three policy scenarios including taxation of energy, adjusting the price of fossil energy and increasing government subsidy combined with taxation of energy, the effects from three aspects, which are the proportion of bio-energy (quantity of bio-energy resource accounting for the total supply or demand of energy), the output effect and Macro effect, were analyzed.
Combining the successful experience from abroad with the situation of our country, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
引文
[1]罗鑫.可再生能源电力及其市场模式的研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2006.
[2]刘荣志,周宪龙.中国的生物质能发展现状与对策[J].农村能源科学,2007(12)：434-436
[3]Karl Mallon, Greg Bourne, Richard Mott.气候变化解决方案：WWF2050展望[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社,2007.
[4]陈霞,张宏武.未来的生物质能供给潜力—GLUE和FISCHER模型研究回顾及比较[J].天津商学院学报,20057(9)：17-20
[5]王应宽.中国生物质能产业的发展空间探析[J].产业论坛,2007(2)：19-27
[6]樊京春,秦世平.经济激励政策对生物质能发电电价的影响分析[J].中国沼气2006(24)：13-15
[7]李景明.浅析我国生物质能政策框架的现状与发展[J].农业科技管理.2008(8)：11-15
[8]Dixon, P.B. and Rimmer, M.T.2002. Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy:a Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH [D]. North—Holl and Publishing Company, Amsterdam.
[9]Sinton, Johansen E. and Mark D.Levine. Changing Energy Intensity in Chinese Industry:The Relative Importance of Structural Shift and Intensity Change[J]. Energy Policy 1994,22(3):239-255
[10]Dixon, RB., Parmenter, B., Sutton, J. and Vincent, D.1982, ORANI:A Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy [D]. North-Holland, Amsterdam
[11]Yinhua Mai. The Chinese Economy Froml997-2015:Developing a Baseline for the MC-HUGE Model[D].Centre of Policy studies Monash University,2006
[12]Wittwer, G.(2003).“An outline of TERM and modifications to include water usage in the Murray-Darling Basin,”Report Prepared for Productivity Commission, Department of Treasury and Finance, Victoria, Departmnent of Primary Industries, Victoria and CSIRO
[13]谢凤杰.生物质能产业发展经济学分析[M].华南农业大学.2007.12.3
[14]M Kojima, D Mitchell, W Ward. Considering Trade Policies for Liquid Biofuels. Renewable Energy Special Report,2007, http//siteresources.worldbank.org/INTOGMC/Resource/liquid_biofuels_text_fi nal3.pdf
[15]蔡文彬.基于CGE模型的节能政策研究[M].湖南大学.2007.12.4
[16]范金,伞锋,王艳.中国城乡居民消费取向的情景分析和政策研究[M].中国社会科学出版社.2008.1
[17]段志刚.中国省级区域可计算一般均衡建模与应用研究[M].华中科技大学.2004.10.10
[18]d'Artis Kancs, Norbert Wohlgemuth. Evaluation of renewable energy polices in an economic-economic-environment model[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2007(8)
[19]Kes McCormick, Tomas Kaberger. Key barriers for bioenergy in Europe: Economic conditions, know-how and institutional capacity, and supply chain co-ordination[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.
[20]M. E. Walsh. Method to estimate bioenergy crop feedstock supply curves[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2000(3)
[21]Bo Hektor. Planning models for bioenergy:Some general observations and comments[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2000(3)
[22]Marie Valentine Florin, Christopher Bunting. Risk governance guidelines for policies bioenergy[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2008(9)
[23]Kim Pingoud, Antti Lehtil. Role of forest sector and bioenegy in limiting the carbon emissions of Finland [J]. Biomass and bioenergy.1997(6):413-420
[24]Bengt Hillring. Rural development and bioenergy—experiences from 20 years of development in Sweden[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2002(6):443-451
[25]Karin Ericsson, Suvi Huttunen, L.J.Lars J. Nilsson and Per Svenningsson. Bioenergy policy and market development in Finland and Sweden[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2003(8)
[26]Dolf Gielen, Junichi Fujino, Seiji Hashimoto and Yuichi Moriguchi. Modeling of global biomass policies[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2003(1)
[27]Patricia Thornley, Deborah Cooper. The effectiveness of policy instruments in promoting bioenergy[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2008(4)
[28]叶慧.我国生物质能源产业可持续发展的SWOT分析与对策[J].西北林学院学报.2008(8)第四期P12-15
[29]孟海波,朱明,王正元,王飞,张艳丽.瑞典、德国、意大利等国生物质能技术利用现状与经验[J],新能源产业,2007.4
[30]刘威.生物质能开发利用设计与环境效应的研究[D].东北师范大学,2002..5.1
[31]马驰,夏伊丽.浙江农村生物质能开发利用的SWOT分析[J].北方经济,2007.1
[32]戴林,秦世平.生物质能：未来能源产业新的增长点[J].环境保护,2007.11, P29-30
[33]关小虎.税收CGE(可计算一般均衡)模型的理论探讨[D].首都经济贸易大学.2001.3
[34]赵永,王劲峰.经济分析CGE模型与应用[M].中国经济出版社.2008.6
[35]徐涛,苗俊峰.能源税制的国际比较及启示[J].山东工商学院学报.2006(2)第20卷第一期P82-86
[36]张卓元.《深化改革,推进粗放型经济增长方式转变》[J].《经济研究》2005年第11期
[37]杭雷鸣,屠梅曾.能源价格对能源强度的影响—以国内制造业为例[J].《数量经济技术经济研究》2006年第12期
[38]候瑜.透视世界的“魔镜”：社会核算矩阵东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院国家统计局教育中心[EB/OL]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjshujia/tjjy/t20061207_402370611.htm,2006
[39]李景明,孙玉芳,陈晓夫.中国农村可再生能源标准体系建设[J].农业工程学报.2005.21(11)：164-167
[40]绿色电力给农民农村带来的绿色生活[EB/OL].中国新能源网.http://www.newenergy.org.cn/Html/00812/12170824067_1.html. 2008-12-17
[41]韩凤芹,苏明,傅志华,黄运.中国能源税问题的初步研究[J].经济研究参考.2008(55)：2-13
[42]马驰,夏伊丽.利用CDM促进浙江农村生物质能的发展研究[J].福建论坛.2009.10
[43]中美可再生能源政策比较与分析[EB/OL]. http://www.in-en.com/article/html/energy_2006200604258752.html.中经BP社.2003.5.19
[44]能源价格拟明确市场主导机制[EB/OL].http://epaper.bjnews.com.cn/html/2007-12/04/content_123424.htm.新京报.2007.12.4
[45]能源价格改革时机成熟,专家：先改电力定价机制[EB/OL]. http://www.nx.cei.gov.cn/Article/ywdd/200802/11923.html.宁夏经济信息网.2008.2.18
[46]王震,陈守海.能源价格市场化需建立竞争机制[EB/OL]. http://www.chinado.cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=1163.2007.12.29
[47]满相忠,王珊珊.生物质能财税优惠政策：国外经验及启示[J].国际问题研究.2007(3)：36-38
[48]周应华.我国发展生物质能的思路与政策.农业部计划司副司长
[49]官巧燕.福建省非粮生物质能发展战略研究[M].福建师范大学.2008.5.1
[2]刘荣志,周宪龙.中国的生物质能发展现状与对策[J].农村能源科学,2007(12)：434-436
[3]Karl Mallon, Greg Bourne, Richard Mott.气候变化解决方案：WWF2050展望[M].北京：中国环境科学出版社,2007.
[4]陈霞,张宏武.未来的生物质能供给潜力—GLUE和FISCHER模型研究回顾及比较[J].天津商学院学报,20057(9)：17-20
[5]王应宽.中国生物质能产业的发展空间探析[J].产业论坛,2007(2)：19-27
[6]樊京春,秦世平.经济激励政策对生物质能发电电价的影响分析[J].中国沼气2006(24)：13-15
[7]李景明.浅析我国生物质能政策框架的现状与发展[J].农业科技管理.2008(8)：11-15
[8]Dixon, P.B. and Rimmer, M.T.2002. Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy:a Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH [D]. North—Holl and Publishing Company, Amsterdam.
[9]Sinton, Johansen E. and Mark D.Levine. Changing Energy Intensity in Chinese Industry:The Relative Importance of Structural Shift and Intensity Change[J]. Energy Policy 1994,22(3):239-255
[10]Dixon, RB., Parmenter, B., Sutton, J. and Vincent, D.1982, ORANI:A Multisectoral Model of the Australian Economy [D]. North-Holland, Amsterdam
[11]Yinhua Mai. The Chinese Economy Froml997-2015:Developing a Baseline for the MC-HUGE Model[D].Centre of Policy studies Monash University,2006
[12]Wittwer, G.(2003).“An outline of TERM and modifications to include water usage in the Murray-Darling Basin,”Report Prepared for Productivity Commission, Department of Treasury and Finance, Victoria, Departmnent of Primary Industries, Victoria and CSIRO
[13]谢凤杰.生物质能产业发展经济学分析[M].华南农业大学.2007.12.3
[14]M Kojima, D Mitchell, W Ward. Considering Trade Policies for Liquid Biofuels. Renewable Energy Special Report,2007, http//siteresources.worldbank.org/INTOGMC/Resource/liquid_biofuels_text_fi nal3.pdf
[15]蔡文彬.基于CGE模型的节能政策研究[M].湖南大学.2007.12.4
[16]范金,伞锋,王艳.中国城乡居民消费取向的情景分析和政策研究[M].中国社会科学出版社.2008.1
[17]段志刚.中国省级区域可计算一般均衡建模与应用研究[M].华中科技大学.2004.10.10
[18]d'Artis Kancs, Norbert Wohlgemuth. Evaluation of renewable energy polices in an economic-economic-environment model[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2007(8)
[19]Kes McCormick, Tomas Kaberger. Key barriers for bioenergy in Europe: Economic conditions, know-how and institutional capacity, and supply chain co-ordination[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.
[20]M. E. Walsh. Method to estimate bioenergy crop feedstock supply curves[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2000(3)
[21]Bo Hektor. Planning models for bioenergy:Some general observations and comments[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2000(3)
[22]Marie Valentine Florin, Christopher Bunting. Risk governance guidelines for policies bioenergy[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2008(9)
[23]Kim Pingoud, Antti Lehtil. Role of forest sector and bioenegy in limiting the carbon emissions of Finland [J]. Biomass and bioenergy.1997(6):413-420
[24]Bengt Hillring. Rural development and bioenergy—experiences from 20 years of development in Sweden[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2002(6):443-451
[25]Karin Ericsson, Suvi Huttunen, L.J.Lars J. Nilsson and Per Svenningsson. Bioenergy policy and market development in Finland and Sweden[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2003(8)
[26]Dolf Gielen, Junichi Fujino, Seiji Hashimoto and Yuichi Moriguchi. Modeling of global biomass policies[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2003(1)
[27]Patricia Thornley, Deborah Cooper. The effectiveness of policy instruments in promoting bioenergy[J]. Biomass and bioenergy.2008(4)
[28]叶慧.我国生物质能源产业可持续发展的SWOT分析与对策[J].西北林学院学报.2008(8)第四期P12-15
[29]孟海波,朱明,王正元,王飞,张艳丽.瑞典、德国、意大利等国生物质能技术利用现状与经验[J],新能源产业,2007.4
[30]刘威.生物质能开发利用设计与环境效应的研究[D].东北师范大学,2002..5.1
[31]马驰,夏伊丽.浙江农村生物质能开发利用的SWOT分析[J].北方经济,2007.1
[32]戴林,秦世平.生物质能：未来能源产业新的增长点[J].环境保护,2007.11, P29-30
[33]关小虎.税收CGE(可计算一般均衡)模型的理论探讨[D].首都经济贸易大学.2001.3
[34]赵永,王劲峰.经济分析CGE模型与应用[M].中国经济出版社.2008.6
[35]徐涛,苗俊峰.能源税制的国际比较及启示[J].山东工商学院学报.2006(2)第20卷第一期P82-86
[36]张卓元.《深化改革,推进粗放型经济增长方式转变》[J].《经济研究》2005年第11期
[37]杭雷鸣,屠梅曾.能源价格对能源强度的影响—以国内制造业为例[J].《数量经济技术经济研究》2006年第12期
[38]候瑜.透视世界的“魔镜”：社会核算矩阵东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院国家统计局教育中心[EB/OL]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjshujia/tjjy/t20061207_402370611.htm,2006
[39]李景明,孙玉芳,陈晓夫.中国农村可再生能源标准体系建设[J].农业工程学报.2005.21(11)：164-167
[40]绿色电力给农民农村带来的绿色生活[EB/OL].中国新能源网.http://www.newenergy.org.cn/Html/00812/12170824067_1.html. 2008-12-17
[41]韩凤芹,苏明,傅志华,黄运.中国能源税问题的初步研究[J].经济研究参考.2008(55)：2-13
[42]马驰,夏伊丽.利用CDM促进浙江农村生物质能的发展研究[J].福建论坛.2009.10
[43]中美可再生能源政策比较与分析[EB/OL]. http://www.in-en.com/article/html/energy_2006200604258752.html.中经BP社.2003.5.19
[44]能源价格拟明确市场主导机制[EB/OL].http://epaper.bjnews.com.cn/html/2007-12/04/content_123424.htm.新京报.2007.12.4
[45]能源价格改革时机成熟,专家：先改电力定价机制[EB/OL]. http://www.nx.cei.gov.cn/Article/ywdd/200802/11923.html.宁夏经济信息网.2008.2.18
[46]王震,陈守海.能源价格市场化需建立竞争机制[EB/OL]. http://www.chinado.cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=1163.2007.12.29
[47]满相忠,王珊珊.生物质能财税优惠政策：国外经验及启示[J].国际问题研究.2007(3)：36-38
[48]周应华.我国发展生物质能的思路与政策.农业部计划司副司长
[49]官巧燕.福建省非粮生物质能发展战略研究[M].福建师范大学.2008.5.1
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