盈余持续性与股票价格的相关性研究
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摘要
随着中国证券市场的不断发展，上市公司盈余持续性与股票价格的内在联系已日益成为投资者主要关心的问题之一。在这个背景下，本文首先介绍了国内外盈余持续性的研究进展及学者们的研究结果，随后本文对深、沪两市A股上市公司2002至2004年的样本公司的基本经济因素、财务数据、会计政策进行分析，计量出样本公司的盈余持续性，然后将盈余分解为现金与应计利润两部分，进一步求出现金持续性与应计持续性，并应用价格模型，考察他们与股价的相关性。接着以关联交易比重大小为指标，将样本分为两类，比较他们的盈余持续性、现金持续性、应计持续性与股价的相关性，孰大孰小，投资者是如何看待这些持续性的信息含量。本文得出结论如下：(1)我国上市公司股票价格与公司的盈余持续性存在着负相关的关系。(2)虽然盈余持续性与股票价格负相关，但投资者对盈余的组成要素具有分辨能力，投资者更关心现金持续性，现金持续性与股价的相关性大于应计利润的持续能力与股价的相关性。(3)以关联交易比重为指标，将整体样本按关联交易比重的高低分为两类样本，比较两类样本数据的盈余持续能力与股价相关性的差异，关联交易大的公司的盈余持续性与股价的相关性较强；亦即相较于关联交易比重低的公司，投资者对关联交易比重高公司的盈余持续性更为看重，盈余持续能力的信息含量大于关联交易不高公司的盈余持续性的信息含量。(4)关联交易比重大的公司的现金持续性以及应计持续性对投资者而言也有不对称的信息含量，投资者更关注这些公司的现金持续能力，也就是股价与关联交易比重高公司的现金持续性的相关程度大于其与应计持续性的相关程度。
With the development of capital market, relationship between earnings persistence and stock price has becomeone of the important issue to the investors. Our research focuses on the question whether price can be affected by the earnings persistence. The research theme of this dissertation examines the role of earnings persistence in the pricing of stock market. First, this artical introduce the recent academic literature on earnings persistence. Secondly, it estimates the cross-sectional variation in earnings persistence determined by economic factors, financial statement indicators and accounting policies. We apply the same method to measure the cash flows persistence and accrual earnings persistence as well. Then, we adopt pricing model to investigate the relationship between earnings persistence and stock price. Finally, in order to assess whether related transaction affect the coorelation between earnings persistence and stock price, we use related transaction as being a indicator to divided the whole samples into two groups, comparing difference of each group's earnings persistence role correlate with stock price.
Our Statistics show that (1) earnings persistence has negative relation with stock price, (2) in contrast to accrual earnings persistence, cash flows persistence has more information content, cash flows persistence affects stock price greatly than accrual earnings persistence, (3) investors of capital market are rational in different situation. The effect of earnings persistence is asymmetrical, listed company who has more related transactions, its relationship between earnings persistence and price is more closely correlate than the listed company has less related transactions, (4) in the situation of the listed companies have taken place more related transaction deals, cash flow earnings has more explain power in stock price.
With the development of capital market, relationship between earnings persistence and stock price has becomeone of the important issue to the investors. Our research focuses on the question whether price can be affected by the earnings persistence. The research theme of this dissertation examines the role of earnings persistence in the pricing of stock market. First, this artical introduce the recent academic literature on earnings persistence. Secondly, it estimates the cross-sectional variation in earnings persistence determined by economic factors, financial statement indicators and accounting policies. We apply the same method to measure the cash flows persistence and accrual earnings persistence as well. Then, we adopt pricing model to investigate the relationship between earnings persistence and stock price. Finally, in order to assess whether related transaction affect the coorelation between earnings persistence and stock price, we use related transaction as being a indicator to divided the whole samples into two groups, comparing difference of each group's earnings persistence role correlate with stock price.
Our Statistics show that (1) earnings persistence has negative relation with stock price, (2) in contrast to accrual earnings persistence, cash flows persistence has more information content, cash flows persistence affects stock price greatly than accrual earnings persistence, (3) investors of capital market are rational in different situation. The effect of earnings persistence is asymmetrical, listed company who has more related transactions, its relationship between earnings persistence and price is more closely correlate than the listed company has less related transactions, (4) in the situation of the listed companies have taken place more related transaction deals, cash flow earnings has more explain power in stock price.
引文
[1].Ali A. and Zarowin P. , 1992, The Role of Earnings Levels in Annual Earnings-Returns Studies, Journal of Accounting Research 286-296, (Autumn 1992b) .
[2]. Ball R. and P. Brown, 1968, A Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers, Journal of Accounting Research, 6, 159-178.
[3]. Barberis, N., Shlefer, A., Vishny, R., a model of investor sentiment, journal of financial economics, 1998, pp.307-343
[4].Baruch Lev S. and Ramu Thiagarajan, 1993, Fundamental Information Analysis, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 31, No. 2 pp. 190-215
[5].Baruch Lev, 1989, On the Usefulness of Earnings and Earnings Research: Lessons and Directions from Two Decades of Empirical Research, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 27 pp. 153-192
[6].Basu,S., The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings, journal of accounting & economics, 1997, 24(1), pp. 3-37.
[7]. Beaver W. Financial Reporting: An Accounting Revolution [M]. Prentice-Hall Inc, 1998.
[8]. Carla Hayn, 1995, The information content of losses, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol.20 No.2 pp.125-153
[9]. Changling Chen, Earnings Persistence and Stock Price Under- and Overreaction, working paper,March 2004,University of Wisconsin-Madison
[10]. Chen. Kcvin, and M. P. Schoderbek, The 1993 Tax Rate Increase and Deferred Tax Adjustments: A Test of Fundamental Fixation, Journal of Accounting Research, 1999, Forthcoming
[11].Coase, R. H., The Nature of the Firm,
[12]. Collins D. and S.Kothari, 1989, An Analysis of the Intertemporal and Cross-Sectional Determinants of Earnings Response Coefficients, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 11, No. 2-3, pp. 143-181
[13]. De Bondt, Werner and Richard Thaler, Does the Stock Market Overreact?, journal of finance, 1985,40, pp.793-805.
[14]. Dechow P. and Dichev I. , The quality of accruals and earnings: The role of accrual estimation errors, 2002, The Accounting Review (Supplement) ,pp. 289 - 316
[15]. Easton P. and Harris T. , 1991, Earnings as an Explanatory Variable for Returns, Journal of Accounting Research (spring) , 19-36.
[16]. Easton P. Harris T. and Ohlson J. , 1992, Aggregate accounting earnings can explain most of security returns, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 15No. 2-3 pp. 119-142
[17]. Easton P. D. and T. S. Harris, 1991, Earnings as an explanatory variable for returns, Journal of Accounting Research 29, pp.19-36
[18]. George Foster, 1977, Quarterly Accounting Data: Time-Series Properties and Predictive Ability Results, The Accounting Review (January, 1977) , 1～21
[19]. Kormendi R. and R. Lipe, 1987,Earnings Innovation,Earnings Persistence, and Stock Returns, Journal of Business, Vol. 60, No.3, pp. 324-345
[20]. Ohlson J. and Penman H. , 1992, Disaggregated accounting data as explanatory variables for returns, Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Finance 7 (Fall) , 553-573
[21]. Ohlson J. and Penman S. , 1992, Disaggregated Accounting Data as Explanatory Variables for Returns, Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance (Fall) , pp.553-73.
[22]. Ohlson J. , 1999, On Transitory Earnings, Review of Accounting Studies, Vol. 4, No. 3-4
[23]. Patricia M. Fairfield Richard J. and Sweeney Teri Lombardi Yohn, 1996, Accounting Classification and the Predictive Content of Earnings , The Accounting Review, Vol. 71, No. 3. pp. 337-355.
[24]. Penman S. and Zhang X. , 2002, Accounting Conservatism, the Quality of Earnings, and Stock Returns, The Accounting Review, Vol. 77 No. 2, pp. 237-264
[25].Ramakrishnan R. and Thomas J. , 1991, Valuation of Permanent, Transitory and Price-irrelevant Components of Reported Earnings, Working Paper,Columbia University
[26]. Richard G. Sloan, 1999, Discussion of "Accruals, Cash Flows and Equity Values" , Review of Accounting Studies, Vol.4 No3-4
[27]. Richardson S. Sloan RG.. Soliman M. and Tuna I. , 2002, Information in accruals about earnings persistence and future stock returns, Working Paper,
[28]. Richardson S. Sloan RG.. Soliman M. and Tuna I. , 2005, Accrual reliability, earnings persistence and stock prices, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol.39 No. 3 pp. 437-485
[29]. Robert C. Lipe, 1986, The Information Contained in the Components of Earnings, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 24, pp. 37-64
[30]. Robert Lipe, 1990, The Relation between Stock Returns and Accounting Earnings Given Alternative Information, The Accounting Review, Vol. 65, No. 1. pp. 49-71
[31]. Robert N. Freeman and Senyo Y. Tse, 1992, A Nonlinear Model of Security Price Responses to Unexpected Earnings, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 30 No. 2. pp. 185-209
[32]. Victor L. Bernard and Jacob K. Thomas., Evidence That Stock Prices Do Not Fully Reflect the Implications of Current Earnings for Future Earnings, The Journal of Accounting and Economics, Volume 13 (1990), 305-340.
[33].William H. Beaver, 1968, The Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcements, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 6, 67-92.
[34]. Xie H., 2001, The mispricing of abnormal accruals, The Accounting Review, 2001, Vol. 76 No. 7 pp. 357-373
[35]．蔡基栋、晏静，ST公司现金流量的信息功能，武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版)，2004年9月第57卷第5期，
[36]．陈工孟、高宁，盈余和股利信息含量的交互作用，财经研究，2005年第3期
[37]．陈小悦、孙爱军，CAPM在中国股市的有效性检验，北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版)，2000年第4期，
[38]．陈晓、陈小悦、刘钊，A股盈余报告的有用性研究-来自上海、深圳股市的实证证据，经济研究，1999年第6期
[39]．陈信元、陈冬华、朱红军，净资产、剩余收益与市场定价：会计信息的价值相关性，金融研究，2002年第4期
[40]．程小可，《公司盈余质量评价与实证分析》，清华大学出版社，2004，第一版，
[41]．程小可，中国上市公司盈余结构的业绩预测能力，经济科学，2005年第4期，
[42]．储一钧、王安武，上市公司盈余质量分析，会计研究，2000年第9期
[43]．戴园晨，股市泡沫生成机理以及由大辩论引发的深层思考—兼论股市运行扭曲与庄股情结，经济研究，2001年第4期
[44]．郭旭芬、熊剑，我国股票市场会计信息是否价值相关?，广东商学院学报，2003年第6期
[45]．洪剑峭、方军雄，关联交易和会计盈余的价值相关性，中国会计评论，2005年第1期
[46]．李远鹏、李若山，是会计盈余稳健性，还是利润操纵?-基于中国上市公司的经验数据，中国会计与财务研究，2005年第3期，
[47]．李增泉，会计盈余的稳健性：发现与启示，会计研究，2003年第2期
[48]．林翔、陈汉文，增长、盈余管理和应计持续性，中国会计评论，2005年第1期
[49]．刘曼，会计盈余和经营活动现金流量的信息含量的实证研究，预测，2001年第6期
[50]．刘曼、蒋正华、王建伟，中国上市公司盈利管理与股票价格关系的实证研究，系统工程，2005年第4期
[51]．陆静、孟卫东、廖刚，上市公司会计盈利现金流量与股票价格的实证研究，经济科学，2002年第5期
[52]．马芸、刘斌，会计报表粉饰的市场传导效应研究—来自沪市1999—2000年报的经验证据，财经论丛，57-63
[53]．孟焰、袁淳，亏损上市公司会计盈余价值相关性实证研究，会计研究，2005年第5期
[54]．秦志敏，上市公司盈余质量透视策略，会计研究，2003年第7期
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[73]．朱茶芬，会计管制和盈余质量关系的实证研究，财贸经济，2006年第5期
[74]．朱峰，公司盈利的时间序列分析，兰州商学院报，2002年10月总18卷第5期
[2]. Ball R. and P. Brown, 1968, A Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers, Journal of Accounting Research, 6, 159-178.
[3]. Barberis, N., Shlefer, A., Vishny, R., a model of investor sentiment, journal of financial economics, 1998, pp.307-343
[4].Baruch Lev S. and Ramu Thiagarajan, 1993, Fundamental Information Analysis, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 31, No. 2 pp. 190-215
[5].Baruch Lev, 1989, On the Usefulness of Earnings and Earnings Research: Lessons and Directions from Two Decades of Empirical Research, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 27 pp. 153-192
[6].Basu,S., The conservatism principle and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings, journal of accounting & economics, 1997, 24(1), pp. 3-37.
[7]. Beaver W. Financial Reporting: An Accounting Revolution [M]. Prentice-Hall Inc, 1998.
[8]. Carla Hayn, 1995, The information content of losses, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol.20 No.2 pp.125-153
[9]. Changling Chen, Earnings Persistence and Stock Price Under- and Overreaction, working paper,March 2004,University of Wisconsin-Madison
[10]. Chen. Kcvin, and M. P. Schoderbek, The 1993 Tax Rate Increase and Deferred Tax Adjustments: A Test of Fundamental Fixation, Journal of Accounting Research, 1999, Forthcoming
[11].Coase, R. H., The Nature of the Firm,
[12]. Collins D. and S.Kothari, 1989, An Analysis of the Intertemporal and Cross-Sectional Determinants of Earnings Response Coefficients, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 11, No. 2-3, pp. 143-181
[13]. De Bondt, Werner and Richard Thaler, Does the Stock Market Overreact?, journal of finance, 1985,40, pp.793-805.
[14]. Dechow P. and Dichev I. , The quality of accruals and earnings: The role of accrual estimation errors, 2002, The Accounting Review (Supplement) ,pp. 289 - 316
[15]. Easton P. and Harris T. , 1991, Earnings as an Explanatory Variable for Returns, Journal of Accounting Research (spring) , 19-36.
[16]. Easton P. Harris T. and Ohlson J. , 1992, Aggregate accounting earnings can explain most of security returns, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 15No. 2-3 pp. 119-142
[17]. Easton P. D. and T. S. Harris, 1991, Earnings as an explanatory variable for returns, Journal of Accounting Research 29, pp.19-36
[18]. George Foster, 1977, Quarterly Accounting Data: Time-Series Properties and Predictive Ability Results, The Accounting Review (January, 1977) , 1～21
[19]. Kormendi R. and R. Lipe, 1987,Earnings Innovation,Earnings Persistence, and Stock Returns, Journal of Business, Vol. 60, No.3, pp. 324-345
[20]. Ohlson J. and Penman H. , 1992, Disaggregated accounting data as explanatory variables for returns, Journal of Accounting, Auditing, and Finance 7 (Fall) , 553-573
[21]. Ohlson J. and Penman S. , 1992, Disaggregated Accounting Data as Explanatory Variables for Returns, Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance (Fall) , pp.553-73.
[22]. Ohlson J. , 1999, On Transitory Earnings, Review of Accounting Studies, Vol. 4, No. 3-4
[23]. Patricia M. Fairfield Richard J. and Sweeney Teri Lombardi Yohn, 1996, Accounting Classification and the Predictive Content of Earnings , The Accounting Review, Vol. 71, No. 3. pp. 337-355.
[24]. Penman S. and Zhang X. , 2002, Accounting Conservatism, the Quality of Earnings, and Stock Returns, The Accounting Review, Vol. 77 No. 2, pp. 237-264
[25].Ramakrishnan R. and Thomas J. , 1991, Valuation of Permanent, Transitory and Price-irrelevant Components of Reported Earnings, Working Paper,Columbia University
[26]. Richard G. Sloan, 1999, Discussion of "Accruals, Cash Flows and Equity Values" , Review of Accounting Studies, Vol.4 No3-4
[27]. Richardson S. Sloan RG.. Soliman M. and Tuna I. , 2002, Information in accruals about earnings persistence and future stock returns, Working Paper,
[28]. Richardson S. Sloan RG.. Soliman M. and Tuna I. , 2005, Accrual reliability, earnings persistence and stock prices, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol.39 No. 3 pp. 437-485
[29]. Robert C. Lipe, 1986, The Information Contained in the Components of Earnings, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 24, pp. 37-64
[30]. Robert Lipe, 1990, The Relation between Stock Returns and Accounting Earnings Given Alternative Information, The Accounting Review, Vol. 65, No. 1. pp. 49-71
[31]. Robert N. Freeman and Senyo Y. Tse, 1992, A Nonlinear Model of Security Price Responses to Unexpected Earnings, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 30 No. 2. pp. 185-209
[32]. Victor L. Bernard and Jacob K. Thomas., Evidence That Stock Prices Do Not Fully Reflect the Implications of Current Earnings for Future Earnings, The Journal of Accounting and Economics, Volume 13 (1990), 305-340.
[33].William H. Beaver, 1968, The Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcements, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 6, 67-92.
[34]. Xie H., 2001, The mispricing of abnormal accruals, The Accounting Review, 2001, Vol. 76 No. 7 pp. 357-373
[35]．蔡基栋、晏静，ST公司现金流量的信息功能，武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版)，2004年9月第57卷第5期，
[36]．陈工孟、高宁，盈余和股利信息含量的交互作用，财经研究，2005年第3期
[37]．陈小悦、孙爱军，CAPM在中国股市的有效性检验，北京大学学报(哲学社会科学版)，2000年第4期，
[38]．陈晓、陈小悦、刘钊，A股盈余报告的有用性研究-来自上海、深圳股市的实证证据，经济研究，1999年第6期
[39]．陈信元、陈冬华、朱红军，净资产、剩余收益与市场定价：会计信息的价值相关性，金融研究，2002年第4期
[40]．程小可，《公司盈余质量评价与实证分析》，清华大学出版社，2004，第一版，
[41]．程小可，中国上市公司盈余结构的业绩预测能力，经济科学，2005年第4期，
[42]．储一钧、王安武，上市公司盈余质量分析，会计研究，2000年第9期
[43]．戴园晨，股市泡沫生成机理以及由大辩论引发的深层思考—兼论股市运行扭曲与庄股情结，经济研究，2001年第4期
[44]．郭旭芬、熊剑，我国股票市场会计信息是否价值相关?，广东商学院学报，2003年第6期
[45]．洪剑峭、方军雄，关联交易和会计盈余的价值相关性，中国会计评论，2005年第1期
[46]．李远鹏、李若山，是会计盈余稳健性，还是利润操纵?-基于中国上市公司的经验数据，中国会计与财务研究，2005年第3期，
[47]．李增泉，会计盈余的稳健性：发现与启示，会计研究，2003年第2期
[48]．林翔、陈汉文，增长、盈余管理和应计持续性，中国会计评论，2005年第1期
[49]．刘曼，会计盈余和经营活动现金流量的信息含量的实证研究，预测，2001年第6期
[50]．刘曼、蒋正华、王建伟，中国上市公司盈利管理与股票价格关系的实证研究，系统工程，2005年第4期
[51]．陆静、孟卫东、廖刚，上市公司会计盈利现金流量与股票价格的实证研究，经济科学，2002年第5期
[52]．马芸、刘斌，会计报表粉饰的市场传导效应研究—来自沪市1999—2000年报的经验证据，财经论丛，57-63
[53]．孟焰、袁淳，亏损上市公司会计盈余价值相关性实证研究，会计研究，2005年第5期
[54]．秦志敏，上市公司盈余质量透视策略，会计研究，2003年第7期
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