海南省绿色GDP理论与核算方法研究
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摘要
国内生产总值(GDP)是指一个国家或地区范围内的所有常住单位,在一定时期内生产最终产品和提供劳务价值的总和。它是当前世界各国衡量国家经济社会是否进步的重要标准。然而,这种传统GDP核算体系忽视自然资源与环境成本,仅以产品与劳务的市场交易价值作为评价标准的明显弊端,造成GDP指标的虚拟增大,因此对其修正刻不容缓。绿色GDP理论和核算方法的研究是这种修正工作的展开。建立海南省绿色GDP核算体系有利于运用经济手段促进海南省资源与环境的可持续利用。
本文通过对绿色GDP理论及其核算方法的探讨研究,结合海南省自然资源与环境状况,构建了海南省绿色GDP核算的理论模型与实用模型,并用2004年海南省国民经济发展的相关参数进行了实证分析。结合调查资料的详实程度,选择了适当的估算方法,在实证分析中加以运用。根据全文的分析研究,得到以下结果和结论: (1)在运用海南省绿色GDP核算实用模型进行实证分析过程中,核算纳入的内容比较广泛,基础数据引用比较详尽,资源与环境的价值估算方法和各类参数选取符合海南省实际情况。所以,核算结果基本可以说明海南省经济增长的质量以及它与资源环境之间存在的数量关系。
(2)实证分析得到2004年海南省自然资源与环境的耗减价值,并对当年海南省传统GDP进行了修正。结果显示,2004年海南省绿色GDP为572.6亿元,占传统GDP的72.47%。其中,自然资源成本为191.75亿元,占传统GDP的24.27%;环境成本25.77亿元,占传统GDP的3.26%。从此可以看出,海南省目前的经济增长还是资源环境耗竭型的,基本上没有摆脱发展中国家和地区靠大量消耗自然资源和进行环境破坏来促进经济增长的老路。
(3)2004年海南省生产总值增长98.43亿元,仅占当年自然资源成本的51.33%,这个价值增量完全不能弥补191.75亿元的自然资源成本。而且,单位资源成本也仅仅产出3.12元效益,如果再扣除对环境成本的补偿,单位资源的产出效益还不足3元。可见目前海南省的资源利用效率非常低。
Gross Domestic Production (GDP) refers to the sum of final product and service value, produced and provided by all constant units in a national or local scope accounting systen within certain period. It is an important indicator for weighting the economic and social progress of the country or a region. However, the traditional GDP calculation system neglects the cost of natural resources and the environment. The obvious limitation of the system that takes product and service market value in exchange as the only assessment criteria, results in the false increase of the GDP indicators. Modification of the system is therefore urgently needed. Green GDP theory and calculation methods development is just such kind of efforts. Establishing green GDP calculation system for Hainan Province is directed at sustainable natural resources and environmental management in the province with the aid of economic instrument.
On the basis of detailed discussions on green GDP theory and calculation methods, the present paper constructed green GDP calculation theoretical model and practical model for Hainan by taking into consideration of the local environment and natural resources of the province. A case study then was made with relevant data from economic statistics for the year 2004 for Hainan. Proper calculation method was employed in the case study in view of the completeness and reliability of the data available.
The case study worked out the depletion value of natural resources and the environment of Hainan Province in 2004, and revision of tradition GDP was made of the province of the same year. The resultant green GDP of Hainan is RMB 57.26 billion Yuan in 2004, accounting 72.47% of traditional GDP. Among others, the natural resource cost is RMB 19.175 billion Yuan, 24.27% of traditional GDP; the environmental cost is RMB 2.577 billion Yuan, 3.26% of traditional GDP. It implies that the present economic growth of Hainan Province still belongs to natural resources and environment exhaustive type,
本文通过对绿色GDP理论及其核算方法的探讨研究,结合海南省自然资源与环境状况,构建了海南省绿色GDP核算的理论模型与实用模型,并用2004年海南省国民经济发展的相关参数进行了实证分析。结合调查资料的详实程度,选择了适当的估算方法,在实证分析中加以运用。根据全文的分析研究,得到以下结果和结论: (1)在运用海南省绿色GDP核算实用模型进行实证分析过程中,核算纳入的内容比较广泛,基础数据引用比较详尽,资源与环境的价值估算方法和各类参数选取符合海南省实际情况。所以,核算结果基本可以说明海南省经济增长的质量以及它与资源环境之间存在的数量关系。
(2)实证分析得到2004年海南省自然资源与环境的耗减价值,并对当年海南省传统GDP进行了修正。结果显示,2004年海南省绿色GDP为572.6亿元,占传统GDP的72.47%。其中,自然资源成本为191.75亿元,占传统GDP的24.27%;环境成本25.77亿元,占传统GDP的3.26%。从此可以看出,海南省目前的经济增长还是资源环境耗竭型的,基本上没有摆脱发展中国家和地区靠大量消耗自然资源和进行环境破坏来促进经济增长的老路。
(3)2004年海南省生产总值增长98.43亿元,仅占当年自然资源成本的51.33%,这个价值增量完全不能弥补191.75亿元的自然资源成本。而且,单位资源成本也仅仅产出3.12元效益,如果再扣除对环境成本的补偿,单位资源的产出效益还不足3元。可见目前海南省的资源利用效率非常低。
Gross Domestic Production (GDP) refers to the sum of final product and service value, produced and provided by all constant units in a national or local scope accounting systen within certain period. It is an important indicator for weighting the economic and social progress of the country or a region. However, the traditional GDP calculation system neglects the cost of natural resources and the environment. The obvious limitation of the system that takes product and service market value in exchange as the only assessment criteria, results in the false increase of the GDP indicators. Modification of the system is therefore urgently needed. Green GDP theory and calculation methods development is just such kind of efforts. Establishing green GDP calculation system for Hainan Province is directed at sustainable natural resources and environmental management in the province with the aid of economic instrument.
On the basis of detailed discussions on green GDP theory and calculation methods, the present paper constructed green GDP calculation theoretical model and practical model for Hainan by taking into consideration of the local environment and natural resources of the province. A case study then was made with relevant data from economic statistics for the year 2004 for Hainan. Proper calculation method was employed in the case study in view of the completeness and reliability of the data available.
The case study worked out the depletion value of natural resources and the environment of Hainan Province in 2004, and revision of tradition GDP was made of the province of the same year. The resultant green GDP of Hainan is RMB 57.26 billion Yuan in 2004, accounting 72.47% of traditional GDP. Among others, the natural resource cost is RMB 19.175 billion Yuan, 24.27% of traditional GDP; the environmental cost is RMB 2.577 billion Yuan, 3.26% of traditional GDP. It implies that the present economic growth of Hainan Province still belongs to natural resources and environment exhaustive type,
引文
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[22] 廖明球.国民经济核算中绿色 GDP 测算探讨[J].统计研究.2000.(6):17-21
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[24] 李艳春.“绿色 GDP”核算方法初探[J].北京统计.2003.(4):31-33.
[25] 马崇明.论国民经济核算体系核心指标 GDP 的局限性[J].广东经济管理干部学院学报.2002.(1):20-25.
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[29] 齐援军.国内外绿色 GDP 研究的总体进展[J].经济研究参考.2004.(5):88
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