矿业权价值评估的竞争分析法研究
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摘要
矿业权评估价值系统性偏低于拍卖成交价款的事实说明,矿业权价值评估的现有方法可能有缺陷的,评估判据可能有问题的。2005年以来澳大利亚铁矿石出口价格逐年上涨71.5%、19%、16.5%和88.92%,2008年与2004年的比价为5.81：1,这一案例甚至动摇了人们对公平市场价值准则的信念。此外,矿山经营的长期性、矿产品价格的波动性,都不支持矿业权价值评估的现有规范要求。增强评估的客观性、合理性、公正性、科学性和准确性,需要直面问题并弥补理论缺陷。
针对暴露出来的评估问题,论文没有沿着参数修正等途径,去改善现有矿业权价值评估方法,而是直接探寻造成系统性评估偏差的原因,并据此设计新的评估方案。研究的重点也不停留于传统的个体评估,而转向对矿业权价值的总体评估。超越评估业务7项目的,论文研究的新方法主要服务于矿业的战略经营。
论文从经济学角度研究矿业权价值评估。在分析矿产资源价值构成、形成和确认中,以规范研究方法为主；在研究矿产品价格波动、评估偏差等问题时,则主要采用实证方法。根据总体分析的需要,论文在实证研究中主要采用统计工具。除了遵循矿业经济学常规理论外,论文研究的理论根基是利润平均化理论、产业竞争分析和经济循环理论。
论文的主要工作包括如下几个方面：
提出一套矿业权价值总体评估的方法。除了评估结果不准确外,现有矿业权价值评估未考虑矿业周期的影响,也未清楚表明投资目的。可是,矿产品价格却有长度为28年的周期,并且波幅大,各矿种的周期同步性显著。为了反映资本趋利特性和矿业经营特征,本文以马克思的利润平均化理论为基础,提出依据资本收益率趋同准则评估矿业权价值的新方法。这一方法通过产业竞争分析的途径来推算资本收益指标值,以期望价格来反映矿山长期经营的特征,消除矿产品时序波动对矿业权价值评估产生的系统性偏差、反映矿山长期经营的实际。以铁矿石为计算案例,按照资本收益率趋同准则的评估,可以甄别市场价格过高、过低的异常情况,能够界定合理的价格范围。这从一个侧面验证了采用资本收益率趋同准则来进行矿业权价值评估的合理性。
把产业竞争分析方法应用于矿业权价值评估中。根据波特的产业竞争理论,相关产业之间具有相对竞争优势,竞争优势的显著标志是获利能力大小。本文据此用相关产业的资本收益指标值来确定评估对象的资本收益指标值范围,根据产业内部竞争强度,分别给出乐观、折中、谨慎的评估计算式,计算程序和参照选择,把产业竞争分析方法应用到矿业权价值评估中。这样的做法,尽管少了些数值计算精确,却更符合评估的实际,所以案例评估的结果置信度更高。
通过实证研究得出：矿业周期长28年,价格波动幅度大。实证得知,原油和铁矿石都有长为28年的价格周期,并且两者的相关系数为90.25%。原油在一个周期内的年度平均价格的下探幅度为70%、上探幅度为58%；一个年度内的原油价格波动幅度在16%到70%之间,近10年平均波幅为35.7%。铁矿石在一个周期内的年度平均价格的下探幅度为37%、上探幅度为245%。铁矿石偏离期望价格10%以上的时间概率达60%,从而证明传统规范评估是测不准矿业权价值的。另外从计算知,2004／2005年间,合理预期价格下新方法评估价值是铁矿权评估价值的1.335倍到5.917倍,此测算结果与根据公开拍卖数据整理的事实基本一致,这说明新方法具有一定的解释力,是有参考意义的。
同时,叙述归纳了矿山的经营特征。作者认为,研究不是就事论事的活动,研究的逻辑起点不是研究对象的现实状况,而是从现状中归结出来特征特性。以往人们似乎不够关注矿业经营的特征,论文对此做了些弥补。矿业的主要经营特性有长期性、周期性、价格波幅大、投资规模大、滞后于经济周期、寡头垄断竞争格局、不可逆性、可延迟性、不确定性、环境依存性等。
The fact that a mining rights evaluation (MRE) is usually less than the cost of its successful bidder, reveals fact that there may be defects in the methods of the MRE available or problem in its criterion. Epecially, the exporting price of iron ore from Australia increases yearly 71.5%,19%,16.5%,88.92% since 2005, the ratio of the 2008's price to the 2004's is 5.81:1,which shakes people's belief in the criterion of fair market valuation. Furthmore, the currently guidelines of the the MRE are also not supported by such facts as the long-term of mine business, the fluctuation character of minerals price and the like. To enhance the objectivity, rationality, fairness, scientificalness and veracity of the MRE, it is worthwhile facing the prblems and making up for the theoretic defects.
To the questions revealed,this dissertation pays attention directly to analysizing the causes which bring about the systematic bias of the MRE and to developing a new method for the MRE accordingly, and not to improving the pre-existing methods by such way as corrected parameter. The focuses of the study are located to the overall evaluation of the MRE,and not to the individual evaluation as before. Beyond the seven business purposes of the MRE, the new method is aimed at the strategic business for mining industry.
This dissertation researchs on MRE from the standpoint of economics. Normative research methods have the main application in analysizing the constitution,formation and confirmation of mineral resources valuation. Empirical research methods have their main application in the fluctuation of minerals price, the bias of the MRE and the like. This dissertation mostly applies statistic tools owing to the needs of overall analysis. Except for following general theory of mining economics, our theory roots in Marx's average returns on investment, competitive analysis and economical cirlulation theory.
This dissertation's main contents include as follow:
A overall evaluation method for MRE is proposed. The currently available methods of the MRE don't consider the influences of the period of mining industry and don't make clear the investment objectives, besides their accuracy being lower. Hawever, the length of the period of minerals'price is 28 years, the fluctuation of the price is wide, and the periodical synchronicity of all sors of minerals is obvious. This dissertation puts a method forward to the evaluation according to the criterion of capital yield convergence, based on Marx's average returns on investment, which is much suit with the characteristics of capital gain and mining business. The new method get the targeted value of capital gain by the way of competitive analysis, expected price used in calculation to suit with the characteristics of the long-term of mining business and to eliminate the systematic bias caused by time series wave of minerals's price. As an numerical calculation casus for iron ore on the basis of the criterion of capital yield convergence, the new method can discriminate the anomalies of its price, i.e.it can fix the range of its reasonable price. This demonstrates the rationality with the criterion of capital yield convergence to the MRE.
This dissertation applies the methods of competitive analysis to evaluate mining rights. According to Porter's industry competition theory, it is of relative competitive advantage among industries interrelated, which is remarkably indicated by the capacity of obtaining benefits. This dissertation takes measuments and calculates the upper-lower limit of the targeted value of capital gain according to the targeted value of capital gain of industries interrelated. This dissertation also gives formulas with respectively to optimistic, cautious and average distinguished by the intensity difference of the industrial competition,and with its computational procedure and its parameters setting, applying the methods of competitive analysis in the MRE. This way much correspond with the actual state in evaluation, despite of losting some accuracy in numerical calculation, so the assessment result as the casus being of higher degree of its confidence.
Some empirical conclutions are obtained such as 28 years cycle length of mining industry and wide fluctuation of its price. It demonstates that the length of their price period of crude oil and iron ore is 28 years and the related coefficient between them is equal to 90.25%. With regard to crude oil annual average price, the hit bottom width is 70%, the top 58%. The annual fluctuation range of oil price is changed from 16% to 70%, the average being 35.7% in recent 10 years. With regard to iron ore annual average price, the hit bottom width is 37%, the top 245%. The probablity is about 60% for the iron ore price off the expected price over 10%, with which we can understand that the current methods are indeterminative in normality condition. It is known by calculation that the value by the new method is 1.335-5.917 times to the traditional evaluation between 2004 and 2005, the calculated result in roughly keeping with the first fact arranged by the public auction data. This proves that the new methd is surely of explanation functions and referential meaning.
In the meantime, some characteristics of mining business are induced. This author believes that research activities don't consider something as it stands, and the logic origin of research activity is't the realities of sduty object but its features induced. Owing to the fact that people do not pays enough attention to these features before, to some extent, this dissertation makes some up for it. The main features of mining business are such as the long-term, periodicity, wide amplitude for its price, large scale of investment, lag behind of economic period, oblqopoly competition, irreversibility, delayability, nondeterminacy, surroundings dependency and the like.
针对暴露出来的评估问题,论文没有沿着参数修正等途径,去改善现有矿业权价值评估方法,而是直接探寻造成系统性评估偏差的原因,并据此设计新的评估方案。研究的重点也不停留于传统的个体评估,而转向对矿业权价值的总体评估。超越评估业务7项目的,论文研究的新方法主要服务于矿业的战略经营。
论文从经济学角度研究矿业权价值评估。在分析矿产资源价值构成、形成和确认中,以规范研究方法为主；在研究矿产品价格波动、评估偏差等问题时,则主要采用实证方法。根据总体分析的需要,论文在实证研究中主要采用统计工具。除了遵循矿业经济学常规理论外,论文研究的理论根基是利润平均化理论、产业竞争分析和经济循环理论。
论文的主要工作包括如下几个方面：
提出一套矿业权价值总体评估的方法。除了评估结果不准确外,现有矿业权价值评估未考虑矿业周期的影响,也未清楚表明投资目的。可是,矿产品价格却有长度为28年的周期,并且波幅大,各矿种的周期同步性显著。为了反映资本趋利特性和矿业经营特征,本文以马克思的利润平均化理论为基础,提出依据资本收益率趋同准则评估矿业权价值的新方法。这一方法通过产业竞争分析的途径来推算资本收益指标值,以期望价格来反映矿山长期经营的特征,消除矿产品时序波动对矿业权价值评估产生的系统性偏差、反映矿山长期经营的实际。以铁矿石为计算案例,按照资本收益率趋同准则的评估,可以甄别市场价格过高、过低的异常情况,能够界定合理的价格范围。这从一个侧面验证了采用资本收益率趋同准则来进行矿业权价值评估的合理性。
把产业竞争分析方法应用于矿业权价值评估中。根据波特的产业竞争理论,相关产业之间具有相对竞争优势,竞争优势的显著标志是获利能力大小。本文据此用相关产业的资本收益指标值来确定评估对象的资本收益指标值范围,根据产业内部竞争强度,分别给出乐观、折中、谨慎的评估计算式,计算程序和参照选择,把产业竞争分析方法应用到矿业权价值评估中。这样的做法,尽管少了些数值计算精确,却更符合评估的实际,所以案例评估的结果置信度更高。
通过实证研究得出：矿业周期长28年,价格波动幅度大。实证得知,原油和铁矿石都有长为28年的价格周期,并且两者的相关系数为90.25%。原油在一个周期内的年度平均价格的下探幅度为70%、上探幅度为58%；一个年度内的原油价格波动幅度在16%到70%之间,近10年平均波幅为35.7%。铁矿石在一个周期内的年度平均价格的下探幅度为37%、上探幅度为245%。铁矿石偏离期望价格10%以上的时间概率达60%,从而证明传统规范评估是测不准矿业权价值的。另外从计算知,2004／2005年间,合理预期价格下新方法评估价值是铁矿权评估价值的1.335倍到5.917倍,此测算结果与根据公开拍卖数据整理的事实基本一致,这说明新方法具有一定的解释力,是有参考意义的。
同时,叙述归纳了矿山的经营特征。作者认为,研究不是就事论事的活动,研究的逻辑起点不是研究对象的现实状况,而是从现状中归结出来特征特性。以往人们似乎不够关注矿业经营的特征,论文对此做了些弥补。矿业的主要经营特性有长期性、周期性、价格波幅大、投资规模大、滞后于经济周期、寡头垄断竞争格局、不可逆性、可延迟性、不确定性、环境依存性等。
The fact that a mining rights evaluation (MRE) is usually less than the cost of its successful bidder, reveals fact that there may be defects in the methods of the MRE available or problem in its criterion. Epecially, the exporting price of iron ore from Australia increases yearly 71.5%,19%,16.5%,88.92% since 2005, the ratio of the 2008's price to the 2004's is 5.81:1,which shakes people's belief in the criterion of fair market valuation. Furthmore, the currently guidelines of the the MRE are also not supported by such facts as the long-term of mine business, the fluctuation character of minerals price and the like. To enhance the objectivity, rationality, fairness, scientificalness and veracity of the MRE, it is worthwhile facing the prblems and making up for the theoretic defects.
To the questions revealed,this dissertation pays attention directly to analysizing the causes which bring about the systematic bias of the MRE and to developing a new method for the MRE accordingly, and not to improving the pre-existing methods by such way as corrected parameter. The focuses of the study are located to the overall evaluation of the MRE,and not to the individual evaluation as before. Beyond the seven business purposes of the MRE, the new method is aimed at the strategic business for mining industry.
This dissertation researchs on MRE from the standpoint of economics. Normative research methods have the main application in analysizing the constitution,formation and confirmation of mineral resources valuation. Empirical research methods have their main application in the fluctuation of minerals price, the bias of the MRE and the like. This dissertation mostly applies statistic tools owing to the needs of overall analysis. Except for following general theory of mining economics, our theory roots in Marx's average returns on investment, competitive analysis and economical cirlulation theory.
This dissertation's main contents include as follow:
A overall evaluation method for MRE is proposed. The currently available methods of the MRE don't consider the influences of the period of mining industry and don't make clear the investment objectives, besides their accuracy being lower. Hawever, the length of the period of minerals'price is 28 years, the fluctuation of the price is wide, and the periodical synchronicity of all sors of minerals is obvious. This dissertation puts a method forward to the evaluation according to the criterion of capital yield convergence, based on Marx's average returns on investment, which is much suit with the characteristics of capital gain and mining business. The new method get the targeted value of capital gain by the way of competitive analysis, expected price used in calculation to suit with the characteristics of the long-term of mining business and to eliminate the systematic bias caused by time series wave of minerals's price. As an numerical calculation casus for iron ore on the basis of the criterion of capital yield convergence, the new method can discriminate the anomalies of its price, i.e.it can fix the range of its reasonable price. This demonstrates the rationality with the criterion of capital yield convergence to the MRE.
This dissertation applies the methods of competitive analysis to evaluate mining rights. According to Porter's industry competition theory, it is of relative competitive advantage among industries interrelated, which is remarkably indicated by the capacity of obtaining benefits. This dissertation takes measuments and calculates the upper-lower limit of the targeted value of capital gain according to the targeted value of capital gain of industries interrelated. This dissertation also gives formulas with respectively to optimistic, cautious and average distinguished by the intensity difference of the industrial competition,and with its computational procedure and its parameters setting, applying the methods of competitive analysis in the MRE. This way much correspond with the actual state in evaluation, despite of losting some accuracy in numerical calculation, so the assessment result as the casus being of higher degree of its confidence.
Some empirical conclutions are obtained such as 28 years cycle length of mining industry and wide fluctuation of its price. It demonstates that the length of their price period of crude oil and iron ore is 28 years and the related coefficient between them is equal to 90.25%. With regard to crude oil annual average price, the hit bottom width is 70%, the top 58%. The annual fluctuation range of oil price is changed from 16% to 70%, the average being 35.7% in recent 10 years. With regard to iron ore annual average price, the hit bottom width is 37%, the top 245%. The probablity is about 60% for the iron ore price off the expected price over 10%, with which we can understand that the current methods are indeterminative in normality condition. It is known by calculation that the value by the new method is 1.335-5.917 times to the traditional evaluation between 2004 and 2005, the calculated result in roughly keeping with the first fact arranged by the public auction data. This proves that the new methd is surely of explanation functions and referential meaning.
In the meantime, some characteristics of mining business are induced. This author believes that research activities don't consider something as it stands, and the logic origin of research activity is't the realities of sduty object but its features induced. Owing to the fact that people do not pays enough attention to these features before, to some extent, this dissertation makes some up for it. The main features of mining business are such as the long-term, periodicity, wide amplitude for its price, large scale of investment, lag behind of economic period, oblqopoly competition, irreversibility, delayability, nondeterminacy, surroundings dependency and the like.
引文
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