中国北方沙尘暴灾害形成机理与荒漠化防治研究
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摘要
沙尘暴是在特定的地理环境和下垫面条件下,由特定的大尺度环流背景和天气系统所诱发的灾害性天气,主要发生在沙漠及其临近的干旱与半干旱地区。沙尘暴的频频发生是草原退化、土地荒漠化的指示器、加速器和催化剂,也是生态环境恶化的重要标志,具有重要的警示作用。世界范围内沙尘暴多发区位于中亚、北美、中非和澳大利亚,我国主要分布在西北及华北大部分地区,属于中亚沙尘暴区的一部分,是全球现代沙尘暴的频发区之一。
开展对沙尘暴及其灾害的深入研究对我国生态环境建设和可持续发展,以及防灾减灾和应对气候变化具有非常重要的意义。鉴于此,论文首先对国内外沙尘暴研究进展进行了系统的回顾和归纳,提出了论文的研究内容和目标。然后,将地面气象资料、遥感资料、以及其他有关资料与数值模式相结合,研究了中国北方沙尘暴时空分布的特征;分析了影响沙尘暴发生发展的主要因素及其相互关系,在此基础上,探讨了沙尘暴灾害形成机理及其内在规律;研究了植被参数变化对沙尘起沙影响机理;通过对现有沙尘暴防治方法与政策的分析,提出了现有方法和政策所存在的弊端,探讨了我国防治沙尘暴的体制机制,提出了新的防治沙尘暴灾害的对策方案。主要研究结论如下:
1.沙尘暴既是自然灾害,也是人为灾害,同时也是环境灾害(生态灾害)。我国北方大风频繁(尤其是春季),客观上为沙尘暴的发生、发展和强度变化提供了动力条件;长期干旱的背景和脆弱的自然生态环境,加之沙质地表广阔,以及独特的地形、地貌,成为有利于沙尘暴天气的孕灾环境;随着人口增加和人类对土地资源和水资源的不合理利用,对沙尘暴的发生具有加强作用,人类活动的干扰已逐渐成为沙尘暴频发的重要促发因素。总之,沙尘暴及其强度变化是气候因子(风)、环境因子和人类活动共同作用的产物。
2.中国沙尘暴空间格局总体呈西南-东北分异。中国沙尘暴发生发展的重点区域在西北,并相对集中分布在新疆南部、西藏北部、青海中西部、内蒙中西部、甘肃、宁夏、陕西北部、山西北部、河北北部及河南部分地区。灾害发生的最大、最小年份和多年平均状况的影响界线分布基本一致,只是影响程度不同。
沙尘暴影响重度区域从11月一直延续到次年6-7月,时间跨度很长,按年内变化趋势可以分为三种类型和两个过渡带。影响较严重的省份达14个省(直辖市、自治区),影响面积达624万平方公里,占我国国土面积的65%,重灾区主要分布于西藏、新疆、内蒙、甘肃、青海和宁夏一带。
近40—50年来,我国北方沙尘暴天气总体呈下降趋势,有四个区域呈上升趋势,范围比较小,分别是北疆西部,以昭苏为中心;青海西北部,以芒崖为中心;青海东部,以兴海为中心;内蒙古中部,以朱日和为中心。尽管沙尘暴频次总体上在降低,但强度在增加,近年来有增强的趋势。
内蒙古的荒漠区沙尘暴发生频率高于草原区和农业区,农业区的沙尘暴下降趋势比较明显,农牧交错区的沙尘暴年变率较大,证明沙尘暴发生频率受下垫面生态环境状况的影响。朱日和是内蒙古沙尘暴发生频繁的站点。
3.中国北方沙尘灾害是气象条件、生态环境和人类活动共同作用的结果。沙尘暴发生日数和持续时间与四季的降水、温度、植被覆盖度和大风日数具有很好的相关性。其中,与降水量和植被覆盖度呈负相关关系,与大风日数和温度呈正相关关系;特别是,上年夏季和本年春季的降水量,以及上年夏季的植被覆盖度和本年春季的温度相关程度最为显著。降水和温度主要通过影响地表植被覆盖度来影响区域沙尘暴的发生频率和持续时间。沙尘暴的频繁发生主要是由于降水的持续减少,使地表干燥及植被覆盖度降低造成的。
影响春季、全年沙尘暴日数和年沙尘暴持续时间的各因子中,植被覆盖度的周期变化是影响沙尘暴频率的重要影响因子,其次是大风日数和降水量的影响,温度对沙尘暴的影响是最小的,但也是不可忽视的因子。
大风日数和温度组成沙尘暴产生的动力因子,植被覆盖度和降水组成沙尘暴形成和搬运的阻力因子。动力因子远低于阻力因子,阻力因子是沙尘暴产生的内因所在,而动力因子是外因,当植被覆盖差,降水少,达到了沙尘暴发生的临界状态时,动力因素才能成为沙尘暴产生和搬运的主导因子,从而影响沙尘暴的产生和发展。可见,改善北方干旱半干旱地区的植被覆盖,恢复生态环境,是控制沙尘暴之根本。
4.影响我国沙尘暴的沙源和移动路径。影响我国沙尘暴天气的主要沙源是起源蒙古国南部的戈壁地区,在途径我国北方沙漠或沙地时得到加强或补充,其次是我国境内沙源所致。影响我国沙尘天气的路径主要分为三类:即偏西路径、西北路径和偏北路径。
影响北京地区的沙尘暴路径主要是北方路径和西北路径,北方路径:内蒙古乌兰察布盟和锡林郭勒盟西部→浑善达克沙地→张家口→北京;西北路径:新疆东北部至内蒙古阿拉善盟北部→河西走廊→贺兰山分为南北两路→分别经毛乌素沙地和乌兰布和沙漠→包头、呼和浩特→张家口→北京。北京沙尘暴的主要沙尘来源为新疆东北部、阿拉善高原、鄂尔多斯、阴山北坡、浑善达克沙地和坝上高原,只有这些地区的生态环境得到改善,才能减缓沙尘暴对华北地区的影响。
5.土地退化、草原沙化,植被覆盖度下降是沙尘暴发生发展的指示器、加速器和催化剂。土地利用/覆盖格局的变化,以及土地退化、荒漠化带来的植被覆盖度下降,导致生态环境安全水平大幅下降,是沙尘暴发生发展的指示器、加速器和催化剂。研究结果也表明,土地利用/覆盖变化及植被覆盖度与沙尘暴频次和强度变化有着显而易见的耦合关系,因此,遏制沙尘灾害的治本办法,不在于治理沙尘暴本身,而在于消除产生土地退化、生态安全下降的社会原因,处理好发展与生态环境建设的关系。
6.采用沙尘天气集成数值预报系统,并与国家气象中心T213全球业务模式的嵌套,将T213模式的分析和预报结果为沙尘天气数值预报系统提供初始场和侧边界资料,着重从叶面积指数变化和植被覆盖度变化对风蚀起沙影响进行数值模拟研究,进一步探讨了植被参数变化对沙尘起沙的内在机理。
7.分析了人类活动对中国北方荒漠化的影响。几千年来,特别是近代以来,由于人类人口数量的增加和人类活动增多,加剧了北方荒漠化的蔓延,并成为造成荒漠化的不断发展的主要原因。而人类活动主要是通过对水资源、植被、土壤和气候等方面加剧了我国西北地区荒漠化问题。
8.引入市场机制,吸引社会力量,建立以企业为主体的中国北方荒漠化防治模式。研究提出,在现阶段,我国可以通过引入PPP机制,加强企业和政府部门的合作,解决荒漠化治理过程中的资金短缺、管理落后、效率低下等问题。为进一步有效的治理荒漠化,需要转变我国的政府转变为服务型政府;需要制定优惠的资金政策,明确的产权政策和生态补偿政策来引入市场机制;还需要健全荒漠化治理法律体系,明确各级政府的治理责任,加大对违法犯罪行为的处罚力度保护治理成果和进行持续的宣传教育。
Dust storm is a severe weather induced by a large-scale circulation or a synoptic system, under a given geographic environment or underlying surface condition. It mainly appears in deserts, or in the adjacent arid and semi-arid areas. The frequent occurrence of dust storms makes an indicator, an accelerator, and a catalyst of pastureland degradation and land desertification. It is also a major warning marker indicating the magnitude of ecological environment deterioration. In the global context, dust storms are mainly seen in Central Asia, North America, Central Africa, and Australia. China's dust storms, mostly appeared in the northwest and northern part of the country, constitute a part of the dust storm process in Central Asia. It also makes China one of regions in the world having the most occurrences of dust storms.
Studying dust storms and associated disasters in a systematic manner is extremely important to understanding a range of other issues, including ecological environment reconstruction, sustainable development, disaster prevention and preparedness, and climate change. In this context, the paper makes a systematic review of the latest progresses achieved in studying the dust storms both at home and abroad, before defining the subjects and objectives for the study. Author studies the spatial and temporal distribution of dust storms in North China, and analyzes the major factors that have an impact on the occurrence and development of dust storms and associated interactions, based on the surface, remote sensing, and other selected data, and the results of numerical modeling. Author also discusses the mechanisms that contribute to the occurrence and development of dust storms and associated internal variations, and examines the approaches that may result in an improved numerical dust storm modeling. In addition, author unveils the disadvantages of the existing approaches and policies dealing with dust storm control, analyzes China's dust storm control system, and proposes new strategies for dust storm control and prevention. The study has produced the following main conclusions:
1. Dust storm is a man-made disaster, an environmental disaster (ecological disaster), as well as a natural disaster. The northern part of China is notorious for the frequent attacks of large winds, especially in the spring, which creates the needed momentum for the generation and development of dust storms and associated intensity enhancement The long lasting droughts and vulnerable natural ecological environment, the vast sandy surface, and unique terrains have built up an environment desirable for breeding out dust storms. The increased population and irrational utilization of land and water resources has beefed up the occurrence of dust storms like adding insult to injury. As a result, human activities have become a major factor contributing to the frequent occurrence of dust storms. Apparently, dust storms and enhanced intensity are the combined results of climate elements (wind), environmental factors, and human activities.
2. Southwest-northeast spatial distribution pattern. The northwest part of China is a major region featured with the frequent occurrence and development of dust storms, mostly in the southern part of Xinjiang, the northern part of Tibet, the middle and west part of Qinghai, the middle and west part of Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, the northern part of Shan'xi, the northern part of Shanxi, the northern part of Hebei, and some part of Henan. In China, the years having the most or least occurrences of dust storms and the associated multi-year average have show a basically agreed distribution pattern in line with the affected regions, though different in magnitude.
The regions having most occurrences of dust storms have registered an extended cycle from this November to the following June-July. The inter-annual variations can be grouped into three categories and two transitional belts. 14 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions have been hit hard by dust storms, with an affected area reaching 6.24 million square kilometers, or 65% of China's territories. Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, and Ningxia are the hard-hit areas.
In the last four or five decades, the northern part of China has witnessed a basically declining trend for dust storms, though with an ascending trend for four regions: the west part of northern Xinjiang, with Zhaosu as the center; the northwest part of Qinghai, with Mangyan as the core, the east part of Qinghai, with Xinghai as the kernel; and the middle part of Inner Mongolia, with Zhuri as the center. Recent years have witnessed an increasingly enhanced intensity of dust storms, though the frequency is on the down side.
The desert areas in Inner Mongolia have a higher frequency of dust storm attacks, compared with pastureland and farming areas in the same region. Farming areas have a noticeably low occurrence of dust storms, with a large annual variation of dust storm attacks for the area mixed with fanning and animal raising activities, indicating that the frequency of dust storm attacks is affected by the ecological environment of underlying surface. Zhurihe is an area frequently attacked by dust storms in Inner Mongolia.
3. Dust storm disasters in the northern part of China are the combined results of meteorological conditions, ecological environment, and human activities. Study shows that the number of days and duration of dust storms are well correlated with rainfall, temperature, vegetation coverage, and days of large winds in different seasons. Specifically, the number of days and the duration of dust storms are negatively correlated with rainfall and vegetation coverage, but positively correlated with the days of large winds and temperature. The correlation is most noticeable in the context of the rainfall of last summer and this spring, the vegetation coverage of last summer, and the temperature of this spring. Both rainfall and temperature bear on the occurrence and duration of dust storms by affecting vegetation coverage. The frequent occurrence of dust storms is mainly associated with the dry surface and reduced vegetation coverage caused by the sustained decrease of rainfall.
Of the elements affecting the number of dust storm days in the spring and in a year, and the duration of annual dust storms, the cyclic variation of vegetation coverage is a major factor determining the frequency of dust storms, followed by the days of large winds and rainfall. Temperature has the least impact on the occurrence of dust storms, though it remains an element that cannot be ignored.
The days of large winds and temperature constitute the momentum to blow up a dust storm, while vegetation coverage and rainfall makes an obstacle blocking the formation and transport of dust storms. Momentum is much weaker than the obstacle. In this context, momentum is an internal cause for the occurrence of dust storms. On the other hand, momentum is an external factor. It becomes a dominant factor in inducing a dust storm, and in beefing up the needed transport, when vegetation coverage and rainfall are reduced to such a threshold that it will trigger up the occurrence of a dust storm. It is apparent that the increase of vegetation coverage in arid and semi-arid areas and the restoration of ecological environment in the north offers a key to curbing the occurrence and development of dust storms.
4. Dust origins affecting dust storms in China and associated tracks. China's dust storms have the sand and dust supply mainly from the Gobi deserts in Mongolia, though also picking up sand and dust when traveling through the deserts or sandy land in the northern part of China. The domestic sand and dust sources likewise contribute to the occurrence and development of dust storms in the country, though to a lesser degree. China's dust storms move mainly in three directions: west, northwest, and north.
The dust storms affecting the Beijing area either travel along a northerly track, or a northwest track. When moving in the north direction, it travels in the following tracks: Wulanchabumeng and the west part of Xilinguolemeng in Inner Mongolia - Hunshandake Desert - Zhangjiakou - Beijing. In the northwest direction, it goes from the northeast part of Xinjiang to the northern part of Alashanmeng in Inner Mongolia, to the Hexi Corridor, and further to Helanshan Mount. where it diverts in the south and north, to Maowusu Desert and to Wulanbuhe Desert respectively, before heading for Baotou, Hohhot, Zhangjiakou, and Beijing. Beijing's dust storms are fed with a sand and dust supply mainly from the northeast part of Xinjiang, Alashan Plateau, E'erduosi, the northern slope of Yinshan, Hunshandake Desert, and Bashang Plateau. One has to improve the ecological environment of these areas in the first place, if attempting to ease the impacts of dust storms on North China.
5. Land degradation and grassland desertification. The reduced vegetation coverage makes an indicator, an accelerator, and a catalyst for the occurrence and development of dust storms. The change of land use/cover patterns, and the reduced vegetation coverage caused by land degradation and desertification, has resulted in a compromised ecological security, which in turn becomes an indicator, an accelerator, and a catalyst for the occurrence and development of dust storms. Study results show that the change of land use/cover patterns and vegetation coverage is noticeably coupled with the variations of dust storm frequency and intensity. In this context, the fundamental approach of curbing dust storms has to be addressing the social causes that contribute to land degradation and reduced ecological safety in the first place, rather than controlling dust storms. One has to handle the relationship between the development and the ecological reconstruction in a proper manner.
6. Comparative analysis of four dust emission scenarios. Comparison results show that the modeling made by Shao (1996), and Marticorena and Bergametti (1995) has produced a dust storm hit area that is noticeably larger than the observed one. The results derived from the modeling of Marticorena and Bergametti (1995), in particular, have an emission that is much higher than the observed one. On the contrary, the modeling results presented by Lu and Shao (1999) have shown an affected area noticeably smaller than the observed one. Shao (2001) has worked out a simulated emission area that is quite close to the real situation, with the prediction products basically in line with the observational data, indicating that the said dust emission scenario yields fine predictions for the occurrence and development of dust storms in China.
7. Impacts of human activities on the desertification in North China. In the past several thousand years, especially in the contemporary time, the population boom has resulted in increased human activities, which in turn accelerates the desertification in the north. It has also become a major cause for the increasingly expanded desertification in the region. Human activities worsen the desertification in North China mainly by affecting water resources, vegetation, soil, and climate.
8. Establish a North China desertification control modality with industry as the key player, supported by the market mechanism and private sectors. Author proposes that at the present stage, China shall strengthen the collaborations between industry and government agencies, introducing the PPP mechanism in desertification control, so as to address a range of related issues, including fund shortage, outdated management modality, and low efficiency. To curb the desertification in an effective manner, the Chinese government shall turn itself into a service oriented government, formulating favorable policies on fund raising, ownership, and ecological compensation, and paving the way for the introduction of market mechanism. Efforts shall also be made to enhance the legislations on desertification control, define the terms of reference of government at all levels for the purpose, protect the control results by punishing the criminal act in the area, and keep up a long lasting public awareness raising and education campaign.
开展对沙尘暴及其灾害的深入研究对我国生态环境建设和可持续发展,以及防灾减灾和应对气候变化具有非常重要的意义。鉴于此,论文首先对国内外沙尘暴研究进展进行了系统的回顾和归纳,提出了论文的研究内容和目标。然后,将地面气象资料、遥感资料、以及其他有关资料与数值模式相结合,研究了中国北方沙尘暴时空分布的特征;分析了影响沙尘暴发生发展的主要因素及其相互关系,在此基础上,探讨了沙尘暴灾害形成机理及其内在规律;研究了植被参数变化对沙尘起沙影响机理;通过对现有沙尘暴防治方法与政策的分析,提出了现有方法和政策所存在的弊端,探讨了我国防治沙尘暴的体制机制,提出了新的防治沙尘暴灾害的对策方案。主要研究结论如下:
1.沙尘暴既是自然灾害,也是人为灾害,同时也是环境灾害(生态灾害)。我国北方大风频繁(尤其是春季),客观上为沙尘暴的发生、发展和强度变化提供了动力条件;长期干旱的背景和脆弱的自然生态环境,加之沙质地表广阔,以及独特的地形、地貌,成为有利于沙尘暴天气的孕灾环境;随着人口增加和人类对土地资源和水资源的不合理利用,对沙尘暴的发生具有加强作用,人类活动的干扰已逐渐成为沙尘暴频发的重要促发因素。总之,沙尘暴及其强度变化是气候因子(风)、环境因子和人类活动共同作用的产物。
2.中国沙尘暴空间格局总体呈西南-东北分异。中国沙尘暴发生发展的重点区域在西北,并相对集中分布在新疆南部、西藏北部、青海中西部、内蒙中西部、甘肃、宁夏、陕西北部、山西北部、河北北部及河南部分地区。灾害发生的最大、最小年份和多年平均状况的影响界线分布基本一致,只是影响程度不同。
沙尘暴影响重度区域从11月一直延续到次年6-7月,时间跨度很长,按年内变化趋势可以分为三种类型和两个过渡带。影响较严重的省份达14个省(直辖市、自治区),影响面积达624万平方公里,占我国国土面积的65%,重灾区主要分布于西藏、新疆、内蒙、甘肃、青海和宁夏一带。
近40—50年来,我国北方沙尘暴天气总体呈下降趋势,有四个区域呈上升趋势,范围比较小,分别是北疆西部,以昭苏为中心;青海西北部,以芒崖为中心;青海东部,以兴海为中心;内蒙古中部,以朱日和为中心。尽管沙尘暴频次总体上在降低,但强度在增加,近年来有增强的趋势。
内蒙古的荒漠区沙尘暴发生频率高于草原区和农业区,农业区的沙尘暴下降趋势比较明显,农牧交错区的沙尘暴年变率较大,证明沙尘暴发生频率受下垫面生态环境状况的影响。朱日和是内蒙古沙尘暴发生频繁的站点。
3.中国北方沙尘灾害是气象条件、生态环境和人类活动共同作用的结果。沙尘暴发生日数和持续时间与四季的降水、温度、植被覆盖度和大风日数具有很好的相关性。其中,与降水量和植被覆盖度呈负相关关系,与大风日数和温度呈正相关关系;特别是,上年夏季和本年春季的降水量,以及上年夏季的植被覆盖度和本年春季的温度相关程度最为显著。降水和温度主要通过影响地表植被覆盖度来影响区域沙尘暴的发生频率和持续时间。沙尘暴的频繁发生主要是由于降水的持续减少,使地表干燥及植被覆盖度降低造成的。
影响春季、全年沙尘暴日数和年沙尘暴持续时间的各因子中,植被覆盖度的周期变化是影响沙尘暴频率的重要影响因子,其次是大风日数和降水量的影响,温度对沙尘暴的影响是最小的,但也是不可忽视的因子。
大风日数和温度组成沙尘暴产生的动力因子,植被覆盖度和降水组成沙尘暴形成和搬运的阻力因子。动力因子远低于阻力因子,阻力因子是沙尘暴产生的内因所在,而动力因子是外因,当植被覆盖差,降水少,达到了沙尘暴发生的临界状态时,动力因素才能成为沙尘暴产生和搬运的主导因子,从而影响沙尘暴的产生和发展。可见,改善北方干旱半干旱地区的植被覆盖,恢复生态环境,是控制沙尘暴之根本。
4.影响我国沙尘暴的沙源和移动路径。影响我国沙尘暴天气的主要沙源是起源蒙古国南部的戈壁地区,在途径我国北方沙漠或沙地时得到加强或补充,其次是我国境内沙源所致。影响我国沙尘天气的路径主要分为三类:即偏西路径、西北路径和偏北路径。
影响北京地区的沙尘暴路径主要是北方路径和西北路径,北方路径:内蒙古乌兰察布盟和锡林郭勒盟西部→浑善达克沙地→张家口→北京;西北路径:新疆东北部至内蒙古阿拉善盟北部→河西走廊→贺兰山分为南北两路→分别经毛乌素沙地和乌兰布和沙漠→包头、呼和浩特→张家口→北京。北京沙尘暴的主要沙尘来源为新疆东北部、阿拉善高原、鄂尔多斯、阴山北坡、浑善达克沙地和坝上高原,只有这些地区的生态环境得到改善,才能减缓沙尘暴对华北地区的影响。
5.土地退化、草原沙化,植被覆盖度下降是沙尘暴发生发展的指示器、加速器和催化剂。土地利用/覆盖格局的变化,以及土地退化、荒漠化带来的植被覆盖度下降,导致生态环境安全水平大幅下降,是沙尘暴发生发展的指示器、加速器和催化剂。研究结果也表明,土地利用/覆盖变化及植被覆盖度与沙尘暴频次和强度变化有着显而易见的耦合关系,因此,遏制沙尘灾害的治本办法,不在于治理沙尘暴本身,而在于消除产生土地退化、生态安全下降的社会原因,处理好发展与生态环境建设的关系。
6.采用沙尘天气集成数值预报系统,并与国家气象中心T213全球业务模式的嵌套,将T213模式的分析和预报结果为沙尘天气数值预报系统提供初始场和侧边界资料,着重从叶面积指数变化和植被覆盖度变化对风蚀起沙影响进行数值模拟研究,进一步探讨了植被参数变化对沙尘起沙的内在机理。
7.分析了人类活动对中国北方荒漠化的影响。几千年来,特别是近代以来,由于人类人口数量的增加和人类活动增多,加剧了北方荒漠化的蔓延,并成为造成荒漠化的不断发展的主要原因。而人类活动主要是通过对水资源、植被、土壤和气候等方面加剧了我国西北地区荒漠化问题。
8.引入市场机制,吸引社会力量,建立以企业为主体的中国北方荒漠化防治模式。研究提出,在现阶段,我国可以通过引入PPP机制,加强企业和政府部门的合作,解决荒漠化治理过程中的资金短缺、管理落后、效率低下等问题。为进一步有效的治理荒漠化,需要转变我国的政府转变为服务型政府;需要制定优惠的资金政策,明确的产权政策和生态补偿政策来引入市场机制;还需要健全荒漠化治理法律体系,明确各级政府的治理责任,加大对违法犯罪行为的处罚力度保护治理成果和进行持续的宣传教育。
Dust storm is a severe weather induced by a large-scale circulation or a synoptic system, under a given geographic environment or underlying surface condition. It mainly appears in deserts, or in the adjacent arid and semi-arid areas. The frequent occurrence of dust storms makes an indicator, an accelerator, and a catalyst of pastureland degradation and land desertification. It is also a major warning marker indicating the magnitude of ecological environment deterioration. In the global context, dust storms are mainly seen in Central Asia, North America, Central Africa, and Australia. China's dust storms, mostly appeared in the northwest and northern part of the country, constitute a part of the dust storm process in Central Asia. It also makes China one of regions in the world having the most occurrences of dust storms.
Studying dust storms and associated disasters in a systematic manner is extremely important to understanding a range of other issues, including ecological environment reconstruction, sustainable development, disaster prevention and preparedness, and climate change. In this context, the paper makes a systematic review of the latest progresses achieved in studying the dust storms both at home and abroad, before defining the subjects and objectives for the study. Author studies the spatial and temporal distribution of dust storms in North China, and analyzes the major factors that have an impact on the occurrence and development of dust storms and associated interactions, based on the surface, remote sensing, and other selected data, and the results of numerical modeling. Author also discusses the mechanisms that contribute to the occurrence and development of dust storms and associated internal variations, and examines the approaches that may result in an improved numerical dust storm modeling. In addition, author unveils the disadvantages of the existing approaches and policies dealing with dust storm control, analyzes China's dust storm control system, and proposes new strategies for dust storm control and prevention. The study has produced the following main conclusions:
1. Dust storm is a man-made disaster, an environmental disaster (ecological disaster), as well as a natural disaster. The northern part of China is notorious for the frequent attacks of large winds, especially in the spring, which creates the needed momentum for the generation and development of dust storms and associated intensity enhancement The long lasting droughts and vulnerable natural ecological environment, the vast sandy surface, and unique terrains have built up an environment desirable for breeding out dust storms. The increased population and irrational utilization of land and water resources has beefed up the occurrence of dust storms like adding insult to injury. As a result, human activities have become a major factor contributing to the frequent occurrence of dust storms. Apparently, dust storms and enhanced intensity are the combined results of climate elements (wind), environmental factors, and human activities.
2. Southwest-northeast spatial distribution pattern. The northwest part of China is a major region featured with the frequent occurrence and development of dust storms, mostly in the southern part of Xinjiang, the northern part of Tibet, the middle and west part of Qinghai, the middle and west part of Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia, the northern part of Shan'xi, the northern part of Shanxi, the northern part of Hebei, and some part of Henan. In China, the years having the most or least occurrences of dust storms and the associated multi-year average have show a basically agreed distribution pattern in line with the affected regions, though different in magnitude.
The regions having most occurrences of dust storms have registered an extended cycle from this November to the following June-July. The inter-annual variations can be grouped into three categories and two transitional belts. 14 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions have been hit hard by dust storms, with an affected area reaching 6.24 million square kilometers, or 65% of China's territories. Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, and Ningxia are the hard-hit areas.
In the last four or five decades, the northern part of China has witnessed a basically declining trend for dust storms, though with an ascending trend for four regions: the west part of northern Xinjiang, with Zhaosu as the center; the northwest part of Qinghai, with Mangyan as the core, the east part of Qinghai, with Xinghai as the kernel; and the middle part of Inner Mongolia, with Zhuri as the center. Recent years have witnessed an increasingly enhanced intensity of dust storms, though the frequency is on the down side.
The desert areas in Inner Mongolia have a higher frequency of dust storm attacks, compared with pastureland and farming areas in the same region. Farming areas have a noticeably low occurrence of dust storms, with a large annual variation of dust storm attacks for the area mixed with fanning and animal raising activities, indicating that the frequency of dust storm attacks is affected by the ecological environment of underlying surface. Zhurihe is an area frequently attacked by dust storms in Inner Mongolia.
3. Dust storm disasters in the northern part of China are the combined results of meteorological conditions, ecological environment, and human activities. Study shows that the number of days and duration of dust storms are well correlated with rainfall, temperature, vegetation coverage, and days of large winds in different seasons. Specifically, the number of days and the duration of dust storms are negatively correlated with rainfall and vegetation coverage, but positively correlated with the days of large winds and temperature. The correlation is most noticeable in the context of the rainfall of last summer and this spring, the vegetation coverage of last summer, and the temperature of this spring. Both rainfall and temperature bear on the occurrence and duration of dust storms by affecting vegetation coverage. The frequent occurrence of dust storms is mainly associated with the dry surface and reduced vegetation coverage caused by the sustained decrease of rainfall.
Of the elements affecting the number of dust storm days in the spring and in a year, and the duration of annual dust storms, the cyclic variation of vegetation coverage is a major factor determining the frequency of dust storms, followed by the days of large winds and rainfall. Temperature has the least impact on the occurrence of dust storms, though it remains an element that cannot be ignored.
The days of large winds and temperature constitute the momentum to blow up a dust storm, while vegetation coverage and rainfall makes an obstacle blocking the formation and transport of dust storms. Momentum is much weaker than the obstacle. In this context, momentum is an internal cause for the occurrence of dust storms. On the other hand, momentum is an external factor. It becomes a dominant factor in inducing a dust storm, and in beefing up the needed transport, when vegetation coverage and rainfall are reduced to such a threshold that it will trigger up the occurrence of a dust storm. It is apparent that the increase of vegetation coverage in arid and semi-arid areas and the restoration of ecological environment in the north offers a key to curbing the occurrence and development of dust storms.
4. Dust origins affecting dust storms in China and associated tracks. China's dust storms have the sand and dust supply mainly from the Gobi deserts in Mongolia, though also picking up sand and dust when traveling through the deserts or sandy land in the northern part of China. The domestic sand and dust sources likewise contribute to the occurrence and development of dust storms in the country, though to a lesser degree. China's dust storms move mainly in three directions: west, northwest, and north.
The dust storms affecting the Beijing area either travel along a northerly track, or a northwest track. When moving in the north direction, it travels in the following tracks: Wulanchabumeng and the west part of Xilinguolemeng in Inner Mongolia - Hunshandake Desert - Zhangjiakou - Beijing. In the northwest direction, it goes from the northeast part of Xinjiang to the northern part of Alashanmeng in Inner Mongolia, to the Hexi Corridor, and further to Helanshan Mount. where it diverts in the south and north, to Maowusu Desert and to Wulanbuhe Desert respectively, before heading for Baotou, Hohhot, Zhangjiakou, and Beijing. Beijing's dust storms are fed with a sand and dust supply mainly from the northeast part of Xinjiang, Alashan Plateau, E'erduosi, the northern slope of Yinshan, Hunshandake Desert, and Bashang Plateau. One has to improve the ecological environment of these areas in the first place, if attempting to ease the impacts of dust storms on North China.
5. Land degradation and grassland desertification. The reduced vegetation coverage makes an indicator, an accelerator, and a catalyst for the occurrence and development of dust storms. The change of land use/cover patterns, and the reduced vegetation coverage caused by land degradation and desertification, has resulted in a compromised ecological security, which in turn becomes an indicator, an accelerator, and a catalyst for the occurrence and development of dust storms. Study results show that the change of land use/cover patterns and vegetation coverage is noticeably coupled with the variations of dust storm frequency and intensity. In this context, the fundamental approach of curbing dust storms has to be addressing the social causes that contribute to land degradation and reduced ecological safety in the first place, rather than controlling dust storms. One has to handle the relationship between the development and the ecological reconstruction in a proper manner.
6. Comparative analysis of four dust emission scenarios. Comparison results show that the modeling made by Shao (1996), and Marticorena and Bergametti (1995) has produced a dust storm hit area that is noticeably larger than the observed one. The results derived from the modeling of Marticorena and Bergametti (1995), in particular, have an emission that is much higher than the observed one. On the contrary, the modeling results presented by Lu and Shao (1999) have shown an affected area noticeably smaller than the observed one. Shao (2001) has worked out a simulated emission area that is quite close to the real situation, with the prediction products basically in line with the observational data, indicating that the said dust emission scenario yields fine predictions for the occurrence and development of dust storms in China.
7. Impacts of human activities on the desertification in North China. In the past several thousand years, especially in the contemporary time, the population boom has resulted in increased human activities, which in turn accelerates the desertification in the north. It has also become a major cause for the increasingly expanded desertification in the region. Human activities worsen the desertification in North China mainly by affecting water resources, vegetation, soil, and climate.
8. Establish a North China desertification control modality with industry as the key player, supported by the market mechanism and private sectors. Author proposes that at the present stage, China shall strengthen the collaborations between industry and government agencies, introducing the PPP mechanism in desertification control, so as to address a range of related issues, including fund shortage, outdated management modality, and low efficiency. To curb the desertification in an effective manner, the Chinese government shall turn itself into a service oriented government, formulating favorable policies on fund raising, ownership, and ecological compensation, and paving the way for the introduction of market mechanism. Efforts shall also be made to enhance the legislations on desertification control, define the terms of reference of government at all levels for the purpose, protect the control results by punishing the criminal act in the area, and keep up a long lasting public awareness raising and education campaign.
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