长白山火口湖溃决引发的火山泥石流灾害危险性预测研究
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摘要
长白山天池火山是世界上著名的且是中国最具有喷发可能的火山。尤其是长白山顶部的天池有一个水容量达20.4亿m3的火口湖，一旦火山再次爆发或其他因素引发火口湖溃决，火山泥石流将是最主要的灾害。更重要的是长白山天池火山坐落于我国吉林省东部长白山地区的腹地，是长吉图开发开放先导区的重要组成部分，是我国著名的旅游区。如果大规模的洪水及火山泥石流暴发，必将带来严重的危害。因此，对火口湖溃决及引发的泥石流灾害的研究具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。
本文以“长白山火山喷发次生灾害预警研究”项目为依托，选择长白山火山次生泥石流灾害（火口湖溃决型）为研究对象，在系统归纳总结火山次生泥石流灾害（火口湖溃决型）研究现状、整理分析研究区相关文献资料的基础上，开展了野外现场的调查、分析、取样以及人口社会经济要素的搜集和整理等工作，完成了研究区火山碎屑物的室内物理力学参数试验，通过对数据的整理与分析，获得了研究区松散碎屑物的分布及特征。设计并搭建了适合研究区实际情况的室内物理模拟试验平台，进行了洪水冲刷形成泥石流及危险范围的试验研究。利用数值模拟软件-颗粒流(PFC2D)软件结合物理试验模拟的方式对研究区泥石流的暴发、运动过程以及堆积情况进行数值模拟，掌握了研究区火山泥石流暴发的过程，最后，实现了洪水及火山泥石流灾害的危险范围预测，并基于ARCGIS平台开发了火山泥石流预测预警系统，可实现预测结果的显示、查询及预警。论文的主要研究内容及取得的主要结论如下：
1)首先对研究区火山碎屑堆积物进行了研究，借助野外调查、室内试验以及粒度分析等手段，基本查明了作为火山泥石流物源的松散碎屑物的分布、储量以及粒度特征。火山碎屑物分布面积达到1262km2，占研究区面积的35.38％，堆积物总量估算超过3km3。研究区火山松散碎屑物整体上可分成三类，即火山空落堆积物、火山碎屑流堆积物以及火山泥石流堆积物，各类型堆积物的分布及性质差异明显，其中火山碎屑流堆积物和火山泥石流堆积物为研究的重点。火山松散碎屑物粒径平均值集中在-1.5-1.5Ф，偏度集中于0-0.4，峰度集中于0.8-1.4，标准偏差有明显的两个集中区域，具有“双元性”。频度曲线以中等至尖窄为主，分别处于分选好和分选差两段。所有取样点堆积物的沉积环境综合判别值均小于9.8433，相应于浊流相沉积环境，火山碎屑流携带物质的能量相对较大、速度快，火山泥石流则沿河谷向下流动到达的距离较远，二者的破坏力都很大。
2)以筛析试验及室内物理力学参数试验为基础，结合分形理论知识，得到了以下结论：火山碎屑流堆积物和火山泥石流堆积物的物理力学性质指标值差异显著，火山碎屑流堆积物具有质轻、含水率高、孔隙大等显著特点。而火山泥石流堆积物，受其它碎屑物加入及河流搬运等作用，相互之间的物理力学性质差异性小。松散堆积物粒度分布和其颗粒累积百分含量的线性关系明显，相关系数较大，具有明显的分形特点。整体上碎屑流堆积物的分维值明显大于火山泥石流堆积物，火山泥石流沟床相堆积的分维值大于洪泛平原相堆积。分维值与堆积物的分选性相对应，分维值越大其分选性越差，分维值的变化体现了松散碎屑堆积物的复杂性特征，反映了松散堆积物形成演化特征的差异。粒度分维值与火山松散碎屑物基本物理力学性质指标的相关性好，能很好地反映指标间差异，分维值可以作为衡量松散碎屑堆积物基本物理力学性质的定量表示指标。
3)搭建了室内物理模拟试验平台，进行了泥石流输沙体积浓度、泥石流暴发过程演示和泥石流危险范围模拟三大方面的物理模型试验。首先通过泥石流输沙体积浓度试验获得了以下结论：水槽坡度对泥石流输沙体积浓度影响作用明显，泥石流输沙体积浓度与床面坡度关系曲线总体上是随着水槽坡度的增加，呈上凸状而渐趋平缓的规律，同时揭示出现有的计算模式也存在经验系数不唯一的问题。水源条件（水源流量和总水量）对泥石流输沙体积浓度影响较小，但对泥石流的暴发量及堆积有较大影响。
4)在松散物充足的试验条件下，泥石流堆积扇的长度受水源流量和堆积区坡度的影响较大；泥石流堆积扇的宽度和泥石流暴发量与总水量和水槽坡度关系密切，受它们的影响较大，其作用明显；堆积扇厚度受水槽坡度与堆积区坡度的影响作用显著；堆积面积则受四个试验因素的影响均较大，在选定的α=0.05检验水平下，堆积区坡度、总水量和水槽坡度影响显著；泥石流输沙体积浓度则只和水槽坡度关系密切，受其影响显著。
5)在泥石流危险范围模拟试验的基础上，提出了基于广义回归神经网络（GRNN）的泥石流危险范围预测模型。模型检验时预测值的最大误差为11.63％，总平均误差为6.38％，预测精度及稳定性均较高，为预测火山泥石流危险范围提供了可行的方法，可为制定泥石流防灾减灾规划提供参考的依据。
6)结合室内物理模型试验，利用颗粒流数值模拟软件(PFC2D)，对洪水冲刷形成的火山泥石流的启动、运动及堆积过程进行模拟，得到泥石流启动具有龙头现象；坡面的侵蚀作用形式是由表及里的，逐渐向内发展，直至碎屑物全部被冲出，而不会出现整体破坏形式；堆积形态整体上呈近抛物线型并呈向源堆积效果。模拟方法可行并能为从细观上研究火山泥石流的运动机理提供可行的方法。
7)应用HEC-RAS软件可模拟火口湖溃决型洪水的淹没范围，结合ARCGIS强大的绘图及查询功能，可实现洪水诱发的次生泥石流危险范围的预测，洪水泛滥范围和泥石流危险范围预测结果实现了在ARCGIS平台上的显示，实例应用结果表明该方法简单可行，能为火山泥石流预测预警的应用提供基础数据服务。
8)基于COM的GIS组件的ArcObjects10.0，并以Microsoft Visual Studio.NET为开发环境，利用Visual Basic.net语言进行开发，开发了基于GIS的火山泥石流预测预警平台系统。该系统主要由地质环境条件要素存储、基础数据管理、输入危险范围图形显示、图层信息叠加分析、查询、发布灾害预测预警信息等模块组成。能实现火山泥石流危险范围的图形显示、管理、查询、叠加人口经济信息图层、分析，并发布预测预警信息等功能。应用结果表明，系统完善升级后可为实际应用提供可能。
The Tianchi Volcano in Changbai Mountains is one of the international famousvolcanoes which has the highest potentially dangerous to erupted in China. At the topof the Tianchi Volcano in Changbai Mountains has a crater lake with2.04billion m3water in it. Once the volcano erupt again, or other factors lead the crater lake outburst,the lahar will be the main disaster. More important, it is located in the hinterland ofChangbai Mountains area, in the east of Jilin Province, it has been the importantcomponent of Changjitu development and opening-up pilot area and China's famoustourist area. If large-scale floods and lahar erupted, it would bring serious damage.For those reasons, it has important theoretical and practical value to do the research ofthe Crater lake outburst and triggered mudslides disaster.
This article rely on the program of Changbai Mountains’ Early Warning of theEruptions Caused by Secondary Disasters, selected Changbai Mountains volcano’ssecondary debris flow hazards,the type of crater lake outburst, as the research object.After systematic summarized research status of the volcanic secondary debris flowhazards（crater lake outburst type）and analyzed the related research documents, webegin to carry out the field site survey, analysis, sampling and the populationsocio-economic factors’ collecting and collating, taking samples of loose debris todo the experiments of physical mechanical parameters, and summarizing thedistribution and characteristics of the loose material in the study area. Based on theexperimental data and combined with the actual situation of the study area, wedesigned and built a physical simulation test platform to get the debris flow impactfactors cause by the flood impact and the prediction model of hazard range.With helpof numerical simulation software combines physical simulation test to have thenumerical simulation in the study area, such as the outbreak of debris flows, thecourse of the campaign, and accumulation. Master the mechanism and process oflahar’s eruption in study area. Base on the ARCGIS, we exploited the lahar forecastand early warning systems. Made the prediction results display, inquiries and warningcome true. The thesis has made the following main conclusions:
1) Firstly, study on the debris loose in the research area. With the means of fieldinvestigation, laboratory experiments, and particle size analysis theory, basicallyidentified the distribution, reserves, as well as the particle size characteristics of the loose debris as the provenance of the volcanic debris flow. Pyroclastic deposits’distribution area can be1262km2,35.38％of the study area, The total amount ofaccumulation estimates more than3km3. Loose debris on the whole of the study areacan be divided into three categories: volcanic falling debris accumulation, pyroclasticflow accumulation and lahar accumulation. The distribution and nature of the varioustypes’ loose debris are significant differences. We focus on the pyroclastic flowaccumulation and lahar accumulation. The average particle size of the loose debris isin-1.5-1.5Ф, the skewness is in0-0.4, the kurtosis is in0.8-1.4, standard deviationhas two obvious centralized region, it has dualism. Frequency curve is given priorityto moderately to sharp a narrow, respectively in the well-sorted and poorly sorted.Depositional environment discriminant value of all sampling points were less than9.8433, corresponding to turbidite sedimentary environment, The energy ofpyroclastic flow to carry substances is relatively large, has fast speed, lahars flowsdownward along the river valley to reach distant, both are of great destructive forces.
2) Based on sieve analysis experiments and physical mechanics parametersexperiments, combined with fractal theory gets that pyroclastic flow accumulation andlahar accumulation have significant difference in physical and mechanical properties.Pyroclastic flow accumulation has the characteristics of light weight, high moisturecontent, macropore and so on, while lahar accumulation influenced by other clasticsparticipating and fluviatile transport has little physical property difference betweeneach other. Loose deposit particle size distribution has remarkable linear relation withpercentage content of particle cumulative, with remarkable fractal characteristics.Fractal dimension corresponds to the grain of deposit,the grain is worse when thefractal dimension is higher, the range of the fractal dimension reflects the complexcharacteristics of loose pyroclastic deposits in free organization system, and the loosepyroclastic Grain-size fractal dimension and physical mechanical index of loosematerial have good relativity, it can reflect the differences between index, theGrain-size fractal dimension can be used as the index of loose pyroclastic deposits’quantitative of the physical mechanics character.
3) Set up a physical simulation experimental platform, and three main physicalmodel experiments of sediment concentration、demo process from outbreak todepositionin and hazard range about lahar were carried out on the platform. Thefollowing main results had been obtained. The gradient of flume makes significantimpacts on sediment concentration in debris flow. The sediment concentration indebris flow. increase nearly convex and then gently with the increasing of the gradientof flume generally, but it also has the problem of some calculation patterns’empricalcoefficient is not unique. Water source condition (total body water and water sourceflow rate) make less influence on sediment concentration in debris flow, but make remarkable influence on the amount of debris flow and accumulation.
4）Under the condition of enough loose material, the length of debris fans isremarkably influenced by flow rate of water source and slope of accumulation area.The length of debris fans and the amount of debris flow outbreak are in close relationand influenced remarkably by the whole water amount and slope of the sink. Thethickness of debris fans is influenced by slope of the sink and accumulation area. Thearea of accumulation is influenced by all the four factors. Under the selected condition,the accumulation area slope, the water amount, and sink slope works effectively.Concentration of debris flow transportation is only remarkably influenced by sinkslope.
5）Based on the experiment of debris flow hazard range, established the hazardrange model of debris flows prediction model which based on general regressionneural network model(GRNN).The forecasts’largest error is11.63%, relativeaverage error of prediction result is6.38%, it is not only convenient and high stability,but also have much higher prediction accuracy, it provides possible methods for theforecasts of the hazard warning area of lahar, it can provide reference base to makeplanning for the prevention and reduction of debris flow disaster.
6）With the help of laboratory physical model experiments combines numericalsimulation software to simulate the start, movement and accumulation of lahar causedby flood, and analyzing the result of numerical simulation.It has debris flow headphenomenon; The action form of slope erosion is from surface to inside and graduallyinward until debris all washed away;Accumulation form is similar to parabolic typeeffect as a whole.It is provides the measures to study the motion mechanism of lahar.
7）Using the software of HEC-RAS can stimulate the range of the type of craterlake outburst flood. Combined with ARCGIS in mapping and inquirying can achievethe forecast of the hazard range of secondary debris flow, the range of flood anddebris flow hazard displayed on the platform of ARCGIS. The tested and appliedresults showed that the measures are simple and feasible and can provide the basisdata service for applying in forecasting lahar.
8） Based on the ArcObjects10.0of COM’s GIS components, takes theMicrosoft Visual Studio.NET as its development environment and Visual Basic.net asit’s development language of software, and developed a system of lahar warningbased on GIS. This system mainly consists of the element of geologicalenvironment’s storage、the management of basal Data、input the image display ofharzard area、superimposition analysis of Layer、inrequiring、give early warning toenterprises and so on. It enables the image display of lahar hazardous area、management、 researching、 the economic information layer of superpositionpopulation、analysis, and release early-warning information. Result of application indicates that the system can provide the possibility of actual application after it’supgrade and improvement.
本文以“长白山火山喷发次生灾害预警研究”项目为依托，选择长白山火山次生泥石流灾害（火口湖溃决型）为研究对象，在系统归纳总结火山次生泥石流灾害（火口湖溃决型）研究现状、整理分析研究区相关文献资料的基础上，开展了野外现场的调查、分析、取样以及人口社会经济要素的搜集和整理等工作，完成了研究区火山碎屑物的室内物理力学参数试验，通过对数据的整理与分析，获得了研究区松散碎屑物的分布及特征。设计并搭建了适合研究区实际情况的室内物理模拟试验平台，进行了洪水冲刷形成泥石流及危险范围的试验研究。利用数值模拟软件-颗粒流(PFC2D)软件结合物理试验模拟的方式对研究区泥石流的暴发、运动过程以及堆积情况进行数值模拟，掌握了研究区火山泥石流暴发的过程，最后，实现了洪水及火山泥石流灾害的危险范围预测，并基于ARCGIS平台开发了火山泥石流预测预警系统，可实现预测结果的显示、查询及预警。论文的主要研究内容及取得的主要结论如下：
1)首先对研究区火山碎屑堆积物进行了研究，借助野外调查、室内试验以及粒度分析等手段，基本查明了作为火山泥石流物源的松散碎屑物的分布、储量以及粒度特征。火山碎屑物分布面积达到1262km2，占研究区面积的35.38％，堆积物总量估算超过3km3。研究区火山松散碎屑物整体上可分成三类，即火山空落堆积物、火山碎屑流堆积物以及火山泥石流堆积物，各类型堆积物的分布及性质差异明显，其中火山碎屑流堆积物和火山泥石流堆积物为研究的重点。火山松散碎屑物粒径平均值集中在-1.5-1.5Ф，偏度集中于0-0.4，峰度集中于0.8-1.4，标准偏差有明显的两个集中区域，具有“双元性”。频度曲线以中等至尖窄为主，分别处于分选好和分选差两段。所有取样点堆积物的沉积环境综合判别值均小于9.8433，相应于浊流相沉积环境，火山碎屑流携带物质的能量相对较大、速度快，火山泥石流则沿河谷向下流动到达的距离较远，二者的破坏力都很大。
2)以筛析试验及室内物理力学参数试验为基础，结合分形理论知识，得到了以下结论：火山碎屑流堆积物和火山泥石流堆积物的物理力学性质指标值差异显著，火山碎屑流堆积物具有质轻、含水率高、孔隙大等显著特点。而火山泥石流堆积物，受其它碎屑物加入及河流搬运等作用，相互之间的物理力学性质差异性小。松散堆积物粒度分布和其颗粒累积百分含量的线性关系明显，相关系数较大，具有明显的分形特点。整体上碎屑流堆积物的分维值明显大于火山泥石流堆积物，火山泥石流沟床相堆积的分维值大于洪泛平原相堆积。分维值与堆积物的分选性相对应，分维值越大其分选性越差，分维值的变化体现了松散碎屑堆积物的复杂性特征，反映了松散堆积物形成演化特征的差异。粒度分维值与火山松散碎屑物基本物理力学性质指标的相关性好，能很好地反映指标间差异，分维值可以作为衡量松散碎屑堆积物基本物理力学性质的定量表示指标。
3)搭建了室内物理模拟试验平台，进行了泥石流输沙体积浓度、泥石流暴发过程演示和泥石流危险范围模拟三大方面的物理模型试验。首先通过泥石流输沙体积浓度试验获得了以下结论：水槽坡度对泥石流输沙体积浓度影响作用明显，泥石流输沙体积浓度与床面坡度关系曲线总体上是随着水槽坡度的增加，呈上凸状而渐趋平缓的规律，同时揭示出现有的计算模式也存在经验系数不唯一的问题。水源条件（水源流量和总水量）对泥石流输沙体积浓度影响较小，但对泥石流的暴发量及堆积有较大影响。
4)在松散物充足的试验条件下，泥石流堆积扇的长度受水源流量和堆积区坡度的影响较大；泥石流堆积扇的宽度和泥石流暴发量与总水量和水槽坡度关系密切，受它们的影响较大，其作用明显；堆积扇厚度受水槽坡度与堆积区坡度的影响作用显著；堆积面积则受四个试验因素的影响均较大，在选定的α=0.05检验水平下，堆积区坡度、总水量和水槽坡度影响显著；泥石流输沙体积浓度则只和水槽坡度关系密切，受其影响显著。
5)在泥石流危险范围模拟试验的基础上，提出了基于广义回归神经网络（GRNN）的泥石流危险范围预测模型。模型检验时预测值的最大误差为11.63％，总平均误差为6.38％，预测精度及稳定性均较高，为预测火山泥石流危险范围提供了可行的方法，可为制定泥石流防灾减灾规划提供参考的依据。
6)结合室内物理模型试验，利用颗粒流数值模拟软件(PFC2D)，对洪水冲刷形成的火山泥石流的启动、运动及堆积过程进行模拟，得到泥石流启动具有龙头现象；坡面的侵蚀作用形式是由表及里的，逐渐向内发展，直至碎屑物全部被冲出，而不会出现整体破坏形式；堆积形态整体上呈近抛物线型并呈向源堆积效果。模拟方法可行并能为从细观上研究火山泥石流的运动机理提供可行的方法。
7)应用HEC-RAS软件可模拟火口湖溃决型洪水的淹没范围，结合ARCGIS强大的绘图及查询功能，可实现洪水诱发的次生泥石流危险范围的预测，洪水泛滥范围和泥石流危险范围预测结果实现了在ARCGIS平台上的显示，实例应用结果表明该方法简单可行，能为火山泥石流预测预警的应用提供基础数据服务。
8)基于COM的GIS组件的ArcObjects10.0，并以Microsoft Visual Studio.NET为开发环境，利用Visual Basic.net语言进行开发，开发了基于GIS的火山泥石流预测预警平台系统。该系统主要由地质环境条件要素存储、基础数据管理、输入危险范围图形显示、图层信息叠加分析、查询、发布灾害预测预警信息等模块组成。能实现火山泥石流危险范围的图形显示、管理、查询、叠加人口经济信息图层、分析，并发布预测预警信息等功能。应用结果表明，系统完善升级后可为实际应用提供可能。
The Tianchi Volcano in Changbai Mountains is one of the international famousvolcanoes which has the highest potentially dangerous to erupted in China. At the topof the Tianchi Volcano in Changbai Mountains has a crater lake with2.04billion m3water in it. Once the volcano erupt again, or other factors lead the crater lake outburst,the lahar will be the main disaster. More important, it is located in the hinterland ofChangbai Mountains area, in the east of Jilin Province, it has been the importantcomponent of Changjitu development and opening-up pilot area and China's famoustourist area. If large-scale floods and lahar erupted, it would bring serious damage.For those reasons, it has important theoretical and practical value to do the research ofthe Crater lake outburst and triggered mudslides disaster.
This article rely on the program of Changbai Mountains’ Early Warning of theEruptions Caused by Secondary Disasters, selected Changbai Mountains volcano’ssecondary debris flow hazards,the type of crater lake outburst, as the research object.After systematic summarized research status of the volcanic secondary debris flowhazards（crater lake outburst type）and analyzed the related research documents, webegin to carry out the field site survey, analysis, sampling and the populationsocio-economic factors’ collecting and collating, taking samples of loose debris todo the experiments of physical mechanical parameters, and summarizing thedistribution and characteristics of the loose material in the study area. Based on theexperimental data and combined with the actual situation of the study area, wedesigned and built a physical simulation test platform to get the debris flow impactfactors cause by the flood impact and the prediction model of hazard range.With helpof numerical simulation software combines physical simulation test to have thenumerical simulation in the study area, such as the outbreak of debris flows, thecourse of the campaign, and accumulation. Master the mechanism and process oflahar’s eruption in study area. Base on the ARCGIS, we exploited the lahar forecastand early warning systems. Made the prediction results display, inquiries and warningcome true. The thesis has made the following main conclusions:
1) Firstly, study on the debris loose in the research area. With the means of fieldinvestigation, laboratory experiments, and particle size analysis theory, basicallyidentified the distribution, reserves, as well as the particle size characteristics of the loose debris as the provenance of the volcanic debris flow. Pyroclastic deposits’distribution area can be1262km2,35.38％of the study area, The total amount ofaccumulation estimates more than3km3. Loose debris on the whole of the study areacan be divided into three categories: volcanic falling debris accumulation, pyroclasticflow accumulation and lahar accumulation. The distribution and nature of the varioustypes’ loose debris are significant differences. We focus on the pyroclastic flowaccumulation and lahar accumulation. The average particle size of the loose debris isin-1.5-1.5Ф, the skewness is in0-0.4, the kurtosis is in0.8-1.4, standard deviationhas two obvious centralized region, it has dualism. Frequency curve is given priorityto moderately to sharp a narrow, respectively in the well-sorted and poorly sorted.Depositional environment discriminant value of all sampling points were less than9.8433, corresponding to turbidite sedimentary environment, The energy ofpyroclastic flow to carry substances is relatively large, has fast speed, lahars flowsdownward along the river valley to reach distant, both are of great destructive forces.
2) Based on sieve analysis experiments and physical mechanics parametersexperiments, combined with fractal theory gets that pyroclastic flow accumulation andlahar accumulation have significant difference in physical and mechanical properties.Pyroclastic flow accumulation has the characteristics of light weight, high moisturecontent, macropore and so on, while lahar accumulation influenced by other clasticsparticipating and fluviatile transport has little physical property difference betweeneach other. Loose deposit particle size distribution has remarkable linear relation withpercentage content of particle cumulative, with remarkable fractal characteristics.Fractal dimension corresponds to the grain of deposit,the grain is worse when thefractal dimension is higher, the range of the fractal dimension reflects the complexcharacteristics of loose pyroclastic deposits in free organization system, and the loosepyroclastic Grain-size fractal dimension and physical mechanical index of loosematerial have good relativity, it can reflect the differences between index, theGrain-size fractal dimension can be used as the index of loose pyroclastic deposits’quantitative of the physical mechanics character.
3) Set up a physical simulation experimental platform, and three main physicalmodel experiments of sediment concentration、demo process from outbreak todepositionin and hazard range about lahar were carried out on the platform. Thefollowing main results had been obtained. The gradient of flume makes significantimpacts on sediment concentration in debris flow. The sediment concentration indebris flow. increase nearly convex and then gently with the increasing of the gradientof flume generally, but it also has the problem of some calculation patterns’empricalcoefficient is not unique. Water source condition (total body water and water sourceflow rate) make less influence on sediment concentration in debris flow, but make remarkable influence on the amount of debris flow and accumulation.
4）Under the condition of enough loose material, the length of debris fans isremarkably influenced by flow rate of water source and slope of accumulation area.The length of debris fans and the amount of debris flow outbreak are in close relationand influenced remarkably by the whole water amount and slope of the sink. Thethickness of debris fans is influenced by slope of the sink and accumulation area. Thearea of accumulation is influenced by all the four factors. Under the selected condition,the accumulation area slope, the water amount, and sink slope works effectively.Concentration of debris flow transportation is only remarkably influenced by sinkslope.
5）Based on the experiment of debris flow hazard range, established the hazardrange model of debris flows prediction model which based on general regressionneural network model(GRNN).The forecasts’largest error is11.63%, relativeaverage error of prediction result is6.38%, it is not only convenient and high stability,but also have much higher prediction accuracy, it provides possible methods for theforecasts of the hazard warning area of lahar, it can provide reference base to makeplanning for the prevention and reduction of debris flow disaster.
6）With the help of laboratory physical model experiments combines numericalsimulation software to simulate the start, movement and accumulation of lahar causedby flood, and analyzing the result of numerical simulation.It has debris flow headphenomenon; The action form of slope erosion is from surface to inside and graduallyinward until debris all washed away;Accumulation form is similar to parabolic typeeffect as a whole.It is provides the measures to study the motion mechanism of lahar.
7）Using the software of HEC-RAS can stimulate the range of the type of craterlake outburst flood. Combined with ARCGIS in mapping and inquirying can achievethe forecast of the hazard range of secondary debris flow, the range of flood anddebris flow hazard displayed on the platform of ARCGIS. The tested and appliedresults showed that the measures are simple and feasible and can provide the basisdata service for applying in forecasting lahar.
8） Based on the ArcObjects10.0of COM’s GIS components, takes theMicrosoft Visual Studio.NET as its development environment and Visual Basic.net asit’s development language of software, and developed a system of lahar warningbased on GIS. This system mainly consists of the element of geologicalenvironment’s storage、the management of basal Data、input the image display ofharzard area、superimposition analysis of Layer、inrequiring、give early warning toenterprises and so on. It enables the image display of lahar hazardous area、management、 researching、 the economic information layer of superpositionpopulation、analysis, and release early-warning information. Result of application indicates that the system can provide the possibility of actual application after it’supgrade and improvement.
引文
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