中国城乡居民社会养老保险制度模式识别、目标优化和政策路径选择研究
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摘要
党的十八大报告明确指出：在“统筹推进城乡社会保障体系建设”中,要坚持“全覆盖、保基本、多层次、可持续”的12字方针；“以增强公平性、适应流动性、保证可持续性为重点”,全面建成覆盖城乡居民的社会保障体系”。本文正是在此背景下展开研究的,对我国城乡居民社会养老保险制度政策,提出进一步完善和可持续发展的战略。本文在全面文献回顾和国内外城乡居民社会养老保险全覆盖推进的综述基础上,对我国城乡居民社会养老保险制度的现状加以研究(第2章),基于我国人口的快速老龄化和人口的高位城市化发展视角,凝练出我国具有动态发展的、多层次和多支柱的社会养老保险政策完善的方法论。具体体现在基于城乡居民社会养老保险制度基础理论研究,提出“具有激励适度普惠型”模式是制度优化模式,在此基础上提出我国城乡居民社会养老保险制度的可持续发展目标(第3章),并在科学假设和充分的数据清洗、挖掘基础上(第4章),构建中国城乡居民社会养老保险制度仿真系统(第5章),使得政策的动态路径仿真成为可能。其后本论文重点讨论了中国城乡居民社会养老保险制度仿真系统的运算结果,尤其是通过引入制度优化模式后比较考虑城镇化前后的运营状况预测结果,得出主要研究结论(第6章),包括中国城乡养老保险制度优化模式理论在制度上可行、财政上可支撑、风险可控,中国城乡居民养老保障的仿真系统是有效的等,在此基础上,本论文提出了基于制度优化模式的中国城乡居民社会养老保险制度的政策路径选择“三步走”战略,并给出了政策建议(第7章)。本文主要创新之处在于：一是理论创新,基于我国人口的快速老龄化和人口的高位城市化发展视角,依据相关基础理论,提出城乡居民社会养老保险政策完善的制度优化理论；二技术创新,基于制度参量调整优于结构调整的原则,将社会养老保险制度的内外生变量和参数、目标和发展模式进行科学化、“动态性与精准化和精确化”的统一方法论及智能化政策仿真系统构建；三是政策创新,针对中国城乡居民社会养老保险制度未来发展方向,凝练出我国具有动态发展的、多层次和多支柱的优化目标和政策路径选择“三步走”战略。
The18th CPC National Congress has clearly indicated that in "construction of balancing to advance urban and rural social security system construction", people should persist in the12character guideline of "all standing, foundation protection, multiple levels and sustainability","taking enhancing fairness, adapting to liquidity and guaranteeing sustainability as the focal point", and "fully developing social security system covering urban and rural residents". Under this background, this paper develops its study and puts forward to further perfect strategy of sustainable development to social pension insurance system for urban and rural residents of our country. Under the foundation of comprehensive literature review and an overview of all standing development on foreign and domestic social pension insurance for urban and rural residents, this paper studies the current situation of social pension insurance system for urban and rural residents in our country (chapter2). Based on rapid aging of population in our country and angle of high order urbanization of population, it extracts a methodology. The methodology is that our country has a social pension insurance policy perfection of dynamic development, multiple levels and multiple supports. The concrete reflections are as follows, under the theoretical study foundation of social pension insurance system for urban and rural residents, this paper puts forward that the model "with moderate excitation common preferences type" is the model of system optimization, brings forward optimization theory of development target of social pension insurance system for urban and rural residents in our country under this foundation (Chapter3), based on scientific hypothesis and strict data selection, constructs simulation system of social pension insurance system for China's urban and rural residents (Chapter5) and makes policy's dynamic path simulation become possible. Afterwards, this paper focuses on discussing the operation results of the simulation system of social pension insurance system for China's urban and rural residents, especially after comparing the prediction outcomes of operation situation before and after considering urbanization and introducing system optimization model, it gets major research conclusions (Chapter6) as follows, the optimization model theory of China's urban and rural pension insurance system is feasible in system, supporting in finance and controllable in risk, the simulation system of pension security for China's urban and rural residents is effective, etc. Under this foundation, this paper puts forward "three-step" strategy selected by policy path of social pension insurance system for China's urban and rural residents based on system optimization model and makes policy suggestions (Chapter7). The major innovations of this paper are as follows:the first one is theory innovation, based on rapid aging of population in our country and angle of high order urbanization of population, and according to relevant basic theory, it brings forward the system optimization theory of social pension insurance policy perfection for urban and rural residents; The second one is technological innovation, based on the principle of "governing country is like cooking", it processes scientific,"dynamic, precise and accurate" unified methodology and intelligent policy simulation system construction to inner and outer variables and parameters, target and development model in social pension insurance system; the third one is policy innovation, aiming at the future development orientation of social pension insurance system for China's urban and rural residents, it exacts optimization target and policy path selection strategy with dynamic development, multiple levels and multiple supports in our country.
The18th CPC National Congress has clearly indicated that in "construction of balancing to advance urban and rural social security system construction", people should persist in the12character guideline of "all standing, foundation protection, multiple levels and sustainability","taking enhancing fairness, adapting to liquidity and guaranteeing sustainability as the focal point", and "fully developing social security system covering urban and rural residents". Under this background, this paper develops its study and puts forward to further perfect strategy of sustainable development to social pension insurance system for urban and rural residents of our country. Under the foundation of comprehensive literature review and an overview of all standing development on foreign and domestic social pension insurance for urban and rural residents, this paper studies the current situation of social pension insurance system for urban and rural residents in our country (chapter2). Based on rapid aging of population in our country and angle of high order urbanization of population, it extracts a methodology. The methodology is that our country has a social pension insurance policy perfection of dynamic development, multiple levels and multiple supports. The concrete reflections are as follows, under the theoretical study foundation of social pension insurance system for urban and rural residents, this paper puts forward that the model "with moderate excitation common preferences type" is the model of system optimization, brings forward optimization theory of development target of social pension insurance system for urban and rural residents in our country under this foundation (Chapter3), based on scientific hypothesis and strict data selection, constructs simulation system of social pension insurance system for China's urban and rural residents (Chapter5) and makes policy's dynamic path simulation become possible. Afterwards, this paper focuses on discussing the operation results of the simulation system of social pension insurance system for China's urban and rural residents, especially after comparing the prediction outcomes of operation situation before and after considering urbanization and introducing system optimization model, it gets major research conclusions (Chapter6) as follows, the optimization model theory of China's urban and rural pension insurance system is feasible in system, supporting in finance and controllable in risk, the simulation system of pension security for China's urban and rural residents is effective, etc. Under this foundation, this paper puts forward "three-step" strategy selected by policy path of social pension insurance system for China's urban and rural residents based on system optimization model and makes policy suggestions (Chapter7). The major innovations of this paper are as follows:the first one is theory innovation, based on rapid aging of population in our country and angle of high order urbanization of population, and according to relevant basic theory, it brings forward the system optimization theory of social pension insurance policy perfection for urban and rural residents; The second one is technological innovation, based on the principle of "governing country is like cooking", it processes scientific,"dynamic, precise and accurate" unified methodology and intelligent policy simulation system construction to inner and outer variables and parameters, target and development model in social pension insurance system; the third one is policy innovation, aiming at the future development orientation of social pension insurance system for China's urban and rural residents, it exacts optimization target and policy path selection strategy with dynamic development, multiple levels and multiple supports in our country.
引文
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