高铁客运枢纽换乘行为分析与设施配置方法研究
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摘要
高铁客运枢纽是高速铁路系统的核心单元，是综合客运网络的重要节点。如何通过科学的换乘设施配置，高效引导乘客顺利完成换乘，成为摆在广大高铁客运枢纽规划、设计、管理者面前首要解决的问题，由于高铁客运枢纽在我国属于新兴事物，相关理论研究成果也相对不足，难以有效指导我国高铁客运枢纽的建设工作。鉴于上述矛盾，论文依托“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目“城市综合交通系统规划与评价关键技术研究”，以降低高铁客运枢纽乘客换乘时间，提高换乘设施配置水平为目的，系统分析了高铁客运枢纽乘客换乘行为特性，细致研究了乘客换乘时间量化分析方法，给出了高铁客运枢纽换乘设施配置方法，对加快我国高铁客运枢纽规划、设计、建设与后评价的科学化进程具有理论价值和实际意义。
论文对高铁客运枢纽换乘设施进行了梳理，依据乘客在使用换乘设施时所呈现的行为差异，确立了乘客换乘行为特性度量指标，制定了研究所需数据的调查采集方案，选择北京南站及哈尔滨西站内乘客的换乘行为作为调查对象，对乘客的走行、设施选择、排队及等候四类行为的特性指标数据进行采集。
利用统计分析方法，确定了高铁客运枢纽乘客的走行期望速度，建立了单向换乘通道及楼梯内乘客流密度与乘客平均走行速度的线性关系模型，以此推导出乘客走行拥挤延误的计算公式，分析了现有社会力模型的不足，建立了基于改进社会力模型的高铁枢纽乘客换乘走行行为模型，搭建了相应的仿真平台，利用该平台验证了拥挤延误计算公式的适用性，并分析了换乘交叉冲突延误的影响因素，利用仿真数据建立了交叉冲突延误的非线性拟合计算模型。
分析了乘客的行李携带情况、性别、年龄、扶梯入口的排队人数及楼梯的高度对乘客楼梯扶梯选择行为的影响，构建了乘客选择使用扶梯的概率模型，通过数值仿真的途径，阐明了在楼梯与扶梯组合处乘客换乘时间的产生机理。
对高铁客运枢纽内排队系统的乘客到达规律及服务时间特性进行了分析，在购票排队系统与安检排队系统中，乘客的到达可以看作是一个到达率不断变化的泊松过程，服务时间服从负指数分布；在出站检票排队系统中，一列高速铁路列车出站总乘客数与乘客全部到达出站检票口的时间呈对数关系，与乘客到达时刻的标准差呈线性关系，检票时间服从负指数分布；采用到达率及服务率均随时间变化的多路排队等待制排队模型，对乘客的排队行为进行刻画，给出了乘客排队服务时间的递归计算方法。
利用对数正态分布函数拟合了高铁候车厅内提前购票乘客的候车时间数据，在对提前购票乘客候车时间显著性影响因素筛选的基础上，建立了提前购票乘客候车时间预测的BP神经网络模型；将到达市内交通换乘点的乘客流看作是多个服从正态分布客流的叠加，建立了考虑换乘车辆运载能力限制的乘客平均候车时间计算模型，通过数值仿真，分析了车辆到达间隔、换乘人数、车辆运载能力及准点率对乘客候车时间的影响。
界定了高铁客运枢纽乘客换乘服务水平的概念，采用基于乘客换乘“体验-响应”的调查方法，获取了乘客对换乘服务水平等级的评判数据，利用连续类别评判法，以乘客的换乘时间为分级指标，给出了换乘服务水平等级划分标准。
从换乘设施配置的概念、内容、基本原则及流程四个方面，阐明了换乘设施配置的内涵，利用换乘时间分析方法，结合换乘服务水平等级划分标准，给出了高铁客运枢纽内走行类设施、服务类设施及等待类设施的规模确定方法；以乘客的平均期望走行时间最小、乘客的平均交叉冲突延误最小、高铁枢纽造价最低为目标，考虑面积、形状及布置位置三个方面约束，构建了乘客换乘设施三维布局优化模型，利用改进的遗传算法对模型进行了求解；从运能匹配及调度协调两个方面，探讨了换乘接驳类设施的运营组织方法。
论文以研究高铁客运枢纽乘客换乘时间为突破点，强调理论的实用性，在研究框架搭建、概念界定、分析方法及模型构建等方面有所创新，为高铁客运枢纽换乘设施配置研究提供了新的思路。
High-speed rail passenger hub, the core component of high-speed railway system,is an important node in comprehensive passenger transport network. designers andadministration of the high-speed rail passenger hubs are facing up with the problem thathow to guide passengers to complete the transfer efficiently through scientific andeffective transfer facilities configurations. However，due to the fact that high-speedrailway system is newly introduced to China and there is a lack of experience inplanning, design and management in high-speed rail passenger hub and relativetheoretical research，it is difficult to guide the construction of high-speed rail passengerhub in China effectively. In view of the contradiction mentioned above and based on the"eleven five" national technology support project—"Urban comprehensivetransportation system planning and evaluation of key technology research" this researchis aimed at reducing transfer delay in the high-speed rail passenger hub and improvingthe level of transfer facilities configurations. To realize the purpose above, passengers’transfer behaviors in the high-speed rail passenger hub are systematically analyzed,quantitative analysis technologies for passengers transfer delay are detailed studied andconfiguration of transfer facilities in the high-speed rail passenger hub is proposed.Thus, theoretical value and practical significance in planning, design, construction andevaluation of configurations for China's high-speed rail passenger hub are provided..
The high-speed rail passenger hub transfer facilities are reviewed and on the basisof the diversities of passengers’ transfer behaviors in the high-speed rail passenger hubthe measurement index system for passengers’ transfer behavior is established; dataacquisition scheme is developed and data of the characteristics of passengers’ walkingbehaviors, facilities selection behaviors, queuing and waiting behaviors are collected inBeijing South Railway Station and Harbin West Railway Station.
Through statistical analysis, the expected walking speed in the high-speed railpassenger hub passenger is established; linear model for density and average walkingspeed for passengers in the stairs and one-way transfer channels is established thus thecongestion delay calculation formula of passengers checking in the transfer channel isderived; by analyzing the shortcomings of existing social force model, a walkingbehavior model for transfer passengers in the high-speed rail passenger hub isestablished based on the improved social force model and a corresponding simulationplatform is built to verify the applicability of the formula; last but not the least,influencing factors of transfer intersecting delay are analyzed and the nonlinear fittingintersection delay model is established by using the simulation data.
The effects of passengers’ luggage, gender, age, staircase entrance queue numberand the height of the stairs on passengers’ choice behavior of choosing stairs or escalators are quantitative analyzed and the probability model for passengers’ choice ofescalators is established. And by means of numerical simulation, the mechanism ofproduction of transfer delay at the junction of stairs and escalators is expounded.
Regular patterns of arriving and characteristics of service time for passengers in thequeuing system of high-speed rail passenger hub are analyzed. In the queuing systemfor tickets and the security, passengers’ arrival can be regarded as a Poisson processwhere the arrival rate keeps changing and the service time is subject to negativeexponential distribution; in a queuing system for checking out, the relation between thenumber of outbound passengers and the time that all the outbound passengers use toarrive at the ticket exit is logarithmic; the relation between the number of passengersand the standard deviation of passengers’arrival time is linear and the time for checkingout obey negative exponential distribution. By using multipath waiting queuing modelwhere arrival rate and service rate may change with time, the queuing behaviors ofpassengers are depicted and a recursive method to calculate the passengers’ queuingdelay is present.
The waiting time for passengers who bought tickets in advance is fit by logarithmicnormal distribution and a BP neural network model to predict waiting delay ofpassengers who bought tickets in advance is established on the basis of screeningsignificant influencing factors of passengers waiting time. Flow of passengers arrivingat urban transit transfer point inside the city is regarded as the congregation of passengerflows which obey normal distribution and a calculation model of passengers’ averagewaiting time considering the capacity limit of transfer vehicles is founded. Andinfluences of vehicles’ arrival interval, number of transferring passengers, vehiclecapacity and punctuality rate on passengers’ waiting delay are analyzed throughnumerical simulation.
Concept of transfer delay degree is defined and transfer delay evaluation data isobtained by research method based on passengers’ transfer―experience–response‖.The division standard of degree of travel delay is given using continuous classificationevaluation method and the passengers’ transfer time is regarded as the classificationindex.
Connotation of transfer facilities configurations is clarified from four aspectsincluding the concept, the content, basic principles and procedures of transfer facilitiesconfigurations. Method to determine the scale of walking facilities, service facilities andwaiting facility is given by taking advantage of the transfer time analysis methodscombined with the classification standard of the transfer time degree. For the purpose ofminimizing the average expected walking time, the average crossed delay of passengersand the cost of high-speed rail project, a three-dimensional layout optimization modelfor passengers’ transfer facilities is constructed considering three aspects of restraintthat is area, shape and location of the high-speed rail passenger hub and the model is solved by genetic the improved algorithm and the organization of operation ofpassengers’ transfer facilities is discussed from the match of transport capacity and thecoordination of scheduling.
Research on passengers’ transfer delay in the high-speed rail passenger hub is thebreakthrough point and the practicability of the theory is emphasized. There existsinnovation in several aspects such as the construction of the research framework，thedefinition of the concept, analysis method and the construction of the model, thusproviding a new way for the study of transfer facilities in high-speed railway passengerhub.
论文对高铁客运枢纽换乘设施进行了梳理，依据乘客在使用换乘设施时所呈现的行为差异，确立了乘客换乘行为特性度量指标，制定了研究所需数据的调查采集方案，选择北京南站及哈尔滨西站内乘客的换乘行为作为调查对象，对乘客的走行、设施选择、排队及等候四类行为的特性指标数据进行采集。
利用统计分析方法，确定了高铁客运枢纽乘客的走行期望速度，建立了单向换乘通道及楼梯内乘客流密度与乘客平均走行速度的线性关系模型，以此推导出乘客走行拥挤延误的计算公式，分析了现有社会力模型的不足，建立了基于改进社会力模型的高铁枢纽乘客换乘走行行为模型，搭建了相应的仿真平台，利用该平台验证了拥挤延误计算公式的适用性，并分析了换乘交叉冲突延误的影响因素，利用仿真数据建立了交叉冲突延误的非线性拟合计算模型。
分析了乘客的行李携带情况、性别、年龄、扶梯入口的排队人数及楼梯的高度对乘客楼梯扶梯选择行为的影响，构建了乘客选择使用扶梯的概率模型，通过数值仿真的途径，阐明了在楼梯与扶梯组合处乘客换乘时间的产生机理。
对高铁客运枢纽内排队系统的乘客到达规律及服务时间特性进行了分析，在购票排队系统与安检排队系统中，乘客的到达可以看作是一个到达率不断变化的泊松过程，服务时间服从负指数分布；在出站检票排队系统中，一列高速铁路列车出站总乘客数与乘客全部到达出站检票口的时间呈对数关系，与乘客到达时刻的标准差呈线性关系，检票时间服从负指数分布；采用到达率及服务率均随时间变化的多路排队等待制排队模型，对乘客的排队行为进行刻画，给出了乘客排队服务时间的递归计算方法。
利用对数正态分布函数拟合了高铁候车厅内提前购票乘客的候车时间数据，在对提前购票乘客候车时间显著性影响因素筛选的基础上，建立了提前购票乘客候车时间预测的BP神经网络模型；将到达市内交通换乘点的乘客流看作是多个服从正态分布客流的叠加，建立了考虑换乘车辆运载能力限制的乘客平均候车时间计算模型，通过数值仿真，分析了车辆到达间隔、换乘人数、车辆运载能力及准点率对乘客候车时间的影响。
界定了高铁客运枢纽乘客换乘服务水平的概念，采用基于乘客换乘“体验-响应”的调查方法，获取了乘客对换乘服务水平等级的评判数据，利用连续类别评判法，以乘客的换乘时间为分级指标，给出了换乘服务水平等级划分标准。
从换乘设施配置的概念、内容、基本原则及流程四个方面，阐明了换乘设施配置的内涵，利用换乘时间分析方法，结合换乘服务水平等级划分标准，给出了高铁客运枢纽内走行类设施、服务类设施及等待类设施的规模确定方法；以乘客的平均期望走行时间最小、乘客的平均交叉冲突延误最小、高铁枢纽造价最低为目标，考虑面积、形状及布置位置三个方面约束，构建了乘客换乘设施三维布局优化模型，利用改进的遗传算法对模型进行了求解；从运能匹配及调度协调两个方面，探讨了换乘接驳类设施的运营组织方法。
论文以研究高铁客运枢纽乘客换乘时间为突破点，强调理论的实用性，在研究框架搭建、概念界定、分析方法及模型构建等方面有所创新，为高铁客运枢纽换乘设施配置研究提供了新的思路。
High-speed rail passenger hub, the core component of high-speed railway system,is an important node in comprehensive passenger transport network. designers andadministration of the high-speed rail passenger hubs are facing up with the problem thathow to guide passengers to complete the transfer efficiently through scientific andeffective transfer facilities configurations. However，due to the fact that high-speedrailway system is newly introduced to China and there is a lack of experience inplanning, design and management in high-speed rail passenger hub and relativetheoretical research，it is difficult to guide the construction of high-speed rail passengerhub in China effectively. In view of the contradiction mentioned above and based on the"eleven five" national technology support project—"Urban comprehensivetransportation system planning and evaluation of key technology research" this researchis aimed at reducing transfer delay in the high-speed rail passenger hub and improvingthe level of transfer facilities configurations. To realize the purpose above, passengers’transfer behaviors in the high-speed rail passenger hub are systematically analyzed,quantitative analysis technologies for passengers transfer delay are detailed studied andconfiguration of transfer facilities in the high-speed rail passenger hub is proposed.Thus, theoretical value and practical significance in planning, design, construction andevaluation of configurations for China's high-speed rail passenger hub are provided..
The high-speed rail passenger hub transfer facilities are reviewed and on the basisof the diversities of passengers’ transfer behaviors in the high-speed rail passenger hubthe measurement index system for passengers’ transfer behavior is established; dataacquisition scheme is developed and data of the characteristics of passengers’ walkingbehaviors, facilities selection behaviors, queuing and waiting behaviors are collected inBeijing South Railway Station and Harbin West Railway Station.
Through statistical analysis, the expected walking speed in the high-speed railpassenger hub passenger is established; linear model for density and average walkingspeed for passengers in the stairs and one-way transfer channels is established thus thecongestion delay calculation formula of passengers checking in the transfer channel isderived; by analyzing the shortcomings of existing social force model, a walkingbehavior model for transfer passengers in the high-speed rail passenger hub isestablished based on the improved social force model and a corresponding simulationplatform is built to verify the applicability of the formula; last but not the least,influencing factors of transfer intersecting delay are analyzed and the nonlinear fittingintersection delay model is established by using the simulation data.
The effects of passengers’ luggage, gender, age, staircase entrance queue numberand the height of the stairs on passengers’ choice behavior of choosing stairs or escalators are quantitative analyzed and the probability model for passengers’ choice ofescalators is established. And by means of numerical simulation, the mechanism ofproduction of transfer delay at the junction of stairs and escalators is expounded.
Regular patterns of arriving and characteristics of service time for passengers in thequeuing system of high-speed rail passenger hub are analyzed. In the queuing systemfor tickets and the security, passengers’ arrival can be regarded as a Poisson processwhere the arrival rate keeps changing and the service time is subject to negativeexponential distribution; in a queuing system for checking out, the relation between thenumber of outbound passengers and the time that all the outbound passengers use toarrive at the ticket exit is logarithmic; the relation between the number of passengersand the standard deviation of passengers’arrival time is linear and the time for checkingout obey negative exponential distribution. By using multipath waiting queuing modelwhere arrival rate and service rate may change with time, the queuing behaviors ofpassengers are depicted and a recursive method to calculate the passengers’ queuingdelay is present.
The waiting time for passengers who bought tickets in advance is fit by logarithmicnormal distribution and a BP neural network model to predict waiting delay ofpassengers who bought tickets in advance is established on the basis of screeningsignificant influencing factors of passengers waiting time. Flow of passengers arrivingat urban transit transfer point inside the city is regarded as the congregation of passengerflows which obey normal distribution and a calculation model of passengers’ averagewaiting time considering the capacity limit of transfer vehicles is founded. Andinfluences of vehicles’ arrival interval, number of transferring passengers, vehiclecapacity and punctuality rate on passengers’ waiting delay are analyzed throughnumerical simulation.
Concept of transfer delay degree is defined and transfer delay evaluation data isobtained by research method based on passengers’ transfer―experience–response‖.The division standard of degree of travel delay is given using continuous classificationevaluation method and the passengers’ transfer time is regarded as the classificationindex.
Connotation of transfer facilities configurations is clarified from four aspectsincluding the concept, the content, basic principles and procedures of transfer facilitiesconfigurations. Method to determine the scale of walking facilities, service facilities andwaiting facility is given by taking advantage of the transfer time analysis methodscombined with the classification standard of the transfer time degree. For the purpose ofminimizing the average expected walking time, the average crossed delay of passengersand the cost of high-speed rail project, a three-dimensional layout optimization modelfor passengers’ transfer facilities is constructed considering three aspects of restraintthat is area, shape and location of the high-speed rail passenger hub and the model is solved by genetic the improved algorithm and the organization of operation ofpassengers’ transfer facilities is discussed from the match of transport capacity and thecoordination of scheduling.
Research on passengers’ transfer delay in the high-speed rail passenger hub is thebreakthrough point and the practicability of the theory is emphasized. There existsinnovation in several aspects such as the construction of the research framework，thedefinition of the concept, analysis method and the construction of the model, thusproviding a new way for the study of transfer facilities in high-speed railway passengerhub.
引文
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