中国碳减排政策分析与评估方法及应用研究
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摘要
气候变化问题已成为能源政策与环境管理领域的研究热点之一。应对气候变化需要解决减少温室气体排放和发展社会经济两方面相互冲突的问题。我国作为世界第一的温室气体排放国,又作为正在工业化的发展中大国,发展经济与减排温室气体两方面的矛盾更加突出。随着我国温室气体减排压力的日益增大,我国节约能源消费及二氧化碳减排政策研究成为了国际学术界、能源界、环境界等长期关注与研究的热点问题之一。如何协调平衡经济发展与二氧化碳排放之间的关系是中国迫切需要解决的战略问题。因此,本论文利用一些模型和方法定量研究了中国降低二氧化碳排放增长速度的关键途径,以及目前和未来可能实施的不同减排政策对中国社会经济的影响。主要取得以下几方面的创新结果：
(1)确定影响能源消费和引起二氧化碳排放的“关键”部门,有利于政府部门有针对的开展二氧化碳减排行动以及制定二氧化碳减排战略和政策,目前国外许多学者提出了多种“关键”部门的定义,同样也提出了多种方法来确定这些部门,但是这些研究都是针对发达国家的,对于中国的这类研究目前仍然没有。我们丛投入产出的视角，结合需求弹性的概念对中国能源消费和二氧化碳排放的“关键”部门进行了了定义。该方法允许我们分析出经济系统能源消费和二氧化碳排放与各部门经济活动的相关性，丛而找出哪些部门在中国政府设量节能减排政策时应该更加给予关注。通过研究我们定义出了中国三大产业中的“关键”部门,这类部门是中国政府设计节能减排政策时需要重点关注的部门；其中电力与热力的生产和供应业,非金属矿物制品业,钢压延加工业,化学工业和建筑业是最为“关键”的部门,对于这类部门的考虑需要特别慎重。虽然在部门内部实行节能减排措施可能会带来较好的减排效果,但是这些节能减排措施可能引起部门供给能力不够,对整个经济系统的发展造成制约。
(2)随着环境问题日益受到关注,第三产业被普遍认为是应该长期支持其发展的“低碳”部门。目前国内外研究中,对于这方面的研究仅有一篇关于西班牙服务型部门的研究,对于中国的研究仍然没有。我们利用投入产出子系统(I-O Subsystem)方法根据工业部门消费行为把中国第三产业生产活动引起的二氧化碳排放划分为五部分进行深入分析,探讨中国的第三产业的二氧化碳排放问题。研究结果表明在制定第三产业环境政策的时候,应该更加注重考虑间接排放在第三产业二氧化碳排放中所发挥的作用；而第三产业部门活动对其他部门二氧化碳排放产生的拉动效应更是考虑的重点,其中教育、卫生、行政机关及其他行业、饮食、批发零售业、交通运输及仓储业这些部门对其他部门排放的拉动效应作为重中之重。因此,如何分散第三产业发展对第一、二产业排放的拉动效应,把第三产业的消费重点转移至非碳密集型行业,是形成中国第三产业低碳发展之路的重要手段；另外,降低中国碳密集型行业的碳排放强度也有利于减少第三产业的排放。
(3)贸易全球化给气候变化带来了不确定性,“碳泄漏”问题长期以来成为了气候变化谈判的重要焦点之一。因此,国际贸易引起的温室气体排放在全球气候变化谈判议程中是不可忽略的一项内容。目前国内外许多研究都探讨了此问题,在中国贸易引起的问题探讨上已有许多国内外学者进行了大量的研究,但是在核算过程中,对于进口国技术系数通常采用出口国技术系数来代替,从而影响了结果的准确性,我们按照生产国技术系数核算了进口和出口贸易引起的碳排放,从而增加了核算结果的准确性。基于投入产出模型，本研究尝试丛部门间商品进出口贸易的角度对中国和美国商品进出口贸易引起的二氧化碳排放进行探讨，希望通过对部门深入分析的方法，更加全面的了解中国和美国商品贸易对国家和全球的二氧化碳排放所造成的影响。根据投入产出模型,我们核算了国际贸易对国家和全球二氧化碳排放产生的影响。通过研究得到以下结论：2007年,美国通过消费中国进口商品,减少了国内79.14Mt的二氧化碳排放,同时增加了全球225.61Mt的二氧化碳排放；中国通过消费美国进口商品,减少了国内81.75Mt的二氧化碳排放,同时减少了全球56.22Mt的二氧化碳排放；总体上看,中国和美国的贸易行为增加了全球169.40Mt的二氧化碳排放。其中,中国的加工制造业,特别是金属制品业、机械设备制造业和交通设备制造业三类部门,是中美贸易引起全球二氧化碳排放增长的主要贡献者,贡献了96.45%的份额。因此,我们认为,针对加工制造业,特别是化学制品业、金属制品业、非金属矿物制品业、机械设备制造业和交通设备制造业五类部门,适当调整贸易结构,加强合理的部门技术转让(例如,CDM项目中的行业技术转让机制),从美国等发达国家优先学习这些部门的“清洁”生产技术和管理经验,减少国际贸易对中国产生的负面环境影响,减少全球二氧化碳排放：同时减少的二氧化碳排放可以作为发达国家通过技术转让获得的排放许可,进而达到多方获利的结果。
(4)审视一个经济体内部行业间的关系,如果能够合理调整行业内部的结构关系,在保证GDP增长不受限制的情况下改变行业间关系,从而减少高强度或者高产出部门在二氧化碳总排放中贡献的比重,进而达到减排的目的。目前国内外对于这方面的研究仅有一篇关于西班牙的研究,对于中国在这方面的研究仍然没有。我们提供了一种分析产品产易行为对部门和国家二氧化碳影响的工具，对中国部门间产品交易行为和产品最终消费行为进行了实证研究，系统的展示了一幅部门经济结构变动对中国二氧化碳排放影响的蓝图，进一步发现影响部门和国家二氧化碳排放相关经济活动的关键环节，此过程不仅仅使我们能够看出经济交易行为对各部门二氧化碳排放的直接影响,而且能够看出这些经济行为对各部门二氧化碳排放的间接影响，丛而可以选择技术发展的重点环节，或者调整经济结构的重要方向所在，使得可以更加有效的降低我国二氧化碳排放增长的速度。通过研究我们发现：建筑业的资本形成过程、机械设备制造业对其他部门产品的消耗、机械设备制造业出口和资本形成过程是影响中国二氧化碳排放的重要因素,对各行业二氧化碳排放的影响都较为显著。在所有的经济行为中,对部门二氧化碳影响最大的行为因素是石油加工业购买石油开采业产品,对石油开采业二氧化碳排放带来的影响；建筑业的资本形成过程是最终需求系数(最终需求结构)变化是对部门二氧化碳排放影响比例最高的经济行为；经济交易行为带来的间接影响最大的是金属制品业对本部门产品的消耗行为,显著影响金属矿采选业的二氧化碳排放；在最终需求系数变动造成的二氧化碳影响中,造成间接影响最大的经济行为是建筑业的资本形成总额变动对非金属矿物制品业二氧化碳排放的影响。从部门二氧化碳排放受到的总影响来看,电力、热力生产供应业二氧化碳排放受到影响最大。
(5)中国尚未制定自己的排放权交易市场,但是通过清洁发展机制的灵活市场机制中国可以参与到国际排放权交易市场中去,通过国际合作,为中国应对气候变化、减排温室气体的行动提供一定的资金支持和技术帮助。目前对于中国排放权交易的研究中,大量研究关注与清洁发展机制带来的技术转让方向的研究,以及对将来中国参与国际排放权交易可能的发展情景和可能采取相关政策的模拟研究,而对国内已有相关策略的模拟研究仍然较少。我们在前人研究基础上构造了发达国家与发展中国家的双边碳排放交易模型,并把中国与日本碳排放交易数据引入模型，对中国政府制定的两类政策进行实证；(1)清洁发展机制项目指导价格；(2)政府抽取企业收入用于在资金上支持应对气候变化活动。分析设置这两种政策对中日碳排放交易会产生什么样的影响?并且讨论这两种政策的合理性。研究结果表明：中日双边排放交易中,限价和抽取比例的设置都存在一个合理调整区间,在合理区间内提高限价或者抽取比例可以提升市场交易价格,增加中国获利。如果考虑CDM市场之外的其他供给方成功进入此排放交易市场,并且通过竞争分享日本减排目标的份额逐渐增大时(即其他供给方竞争力增强),那么市场价格的可调整空间将会减小,从而减少了中国“讨价还价”的空间。另外,相对于限价政策,政府抽取企业收入政策通过对企业按比例抽取费用来引导企业提升价格,属于一种市场调控行为,更有利于调动企业的积极性,降低政府对市场的行政干预,从而有利于发展中国家利益的整体优化。
Global climate change has become the one of most important research focus in the field of energy policy and environmental management. Address the climate change need to deal with the conflicting issues between greenhouse gas emission reduction and socio-economic development. As one of the greatest emitters of greenhouse gas in the world, an industrializing developing country, shows more complicate problem of conflict between economic development and greenhouse gas emission reduction. With the increasing pressure of greenhouse gas emission reduction, the study of China's energy conservation policy and carbon dioxide emission reduction policies has become one of the hottest issues on the fields of international academic research. How to coordinate the balance of relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions has become an urgent need to address strategic issues. Therefore, this job applies a number of models and methodologies to quantitative research the critical path of reducing the growth rate of China's carbon dioxide emissions, and the impact of the emission reduction policies in current and possible implemented in future on the China's socio-economic. Main innovations are as follows:
(1) Determine the "key" sectors, which caused a lot of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, will help government departments to carry out strategies and policies of carbon dioxide emission reduction. Many scholars have present a variety of "key" sectors definition, also made a variety of methods to determine those sectors, but these studies are focus on developed countries, for such research on China is still do not. We view from I-O analysis, combined with the concept of elasticity of demand, defined the "key" sectors of China's energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. This method allows us to analyze the relationship of energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and sectoral economic activities, further to find out which sectors should be pay more attentions when China's government designing the energy saving and emissions reduction policy. In this study, we defined the China's "key" sectors of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, which are the key roles when design of China's energy saving and emissions reduction policies. In which the departments of electricity and heat production and supply, non-metallic mineral products, steel rolling processing industry, chemical industry and construction are the most critical sectors, when consider energy saving and emission reduction in these sectors requires special caution, or else it may resulting in the constrained the development of economic systems.
(2) With the growing concern on the environmental issues, the tertiary industry is generally considered as "low carbon" industry to be long-term support of its development. Only a study on Spanish services has researched this problem, the research for the Chinese still do not. The carbon dioxide emissions caused by production activities of China's tertiary industry are divided into five parts by using input-output subsystem (I-O Subsystem) approach, according to the consumer behavior of industrial sectors, then in-depth analysis of carbon dioxide emissions of China's tertiary industry. The results show that the indirect emissions of the tertiary industry should pay more attention when designing the environmental policy. While the pull effect of tertiary sectoral activities on carbon dioxide emissions of other sectors can not be ignored. In which the pull effects of education, health, administrative agencies and other industries, catering, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing industry on other sectors are most important. Therefore, how to spread the pull effect of industrial emissions on the first industry and second industry, and how to shift the tertiary sectoral consumption focus of carbon-intensive sectors to non-carbon-intensive sectors, are the important points to formation of China's low-carbon development path of the tertiary industry. In addition, reducing the carbon emissions intensity is also conducive to reduce emissions of the tertiary industry.
(3) The globalization of trade has brought to the uncertainty of climate change, "carbon leakage" have long been an important focus in the climate change negotiations. Therefore, the greenhouse gas emissions caused by international trade can not be ignored in the agenda of global climate change negotiations. Many studies have explored this issue, but in most studies, they used the technical coefficients of importing countries to instead of exporting countries, thus affecting the accuracy of the results. We use the technical coefficients of each country to increase the accuracy of the results. In this study, we use the I-O model to analysis of the carbon dioxide emissions caused by international trade from the inter-sectoral perspective. We accounted for assessing the impact of carbon dioxide emissions caused by international trade on national and global carbon dioxide emissions through the in-depth analysis. Our initial findings reveal that:In 2007, the US reduced 79.14Mt CO2 emissions through the consumption of imported goods from China, while increasing global CO2 emissions by about 225.61Mt. Similarly, China reduced 81.75Mt CO2 emissions through the consumption of US goods, while reducing global CO2 emissions by 56.22Mt. Sino-US international trade increased global CO2 emissions by 169.40Mt as a whole, of which the Fabricated Metal Products, Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing and Transportation Equipment sectors contributed a 96.45% share. Therefore, we suggest that accelerating the adjustment of China's trade structure and export of US advanced technologies and experience related to clean production and energy efficiency to China as the way to reduce the negative impact of Sino-US trade on national and global CO2 emissions. This behavior should take into account the processing and manufacturing industries as apriority, especially the Chemical, Fabricated Metal Products, Non-metallic Mineral Products, Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing and Transportation Equipment sectors.
(4) Examine the relationship of sectors within an economy, if we can rationalize the structure of relationships within the industry, ensure that changes the relationship of sectors without impact on the GDP growth, to reduce the share of high-intensity or high-yield sectors in total carbon dioxide emissions, thus achieving the emission reduction objectives without reduce the GDP growth. There is only one related study on Spanish, related on China's research in this field is still do not. We provide a tool to analyze the impact of trading behavior of sectors on carbon dioxide emissions. And further we find out the key part of economic activity which impact on the national and sectoral carbon dioxide emissions. This process not only allows us to see the direct impact of sectoral economic transactions on each secotral carbon dioxide emissions, but also we can see the indirect effects. Thus we can choose the key areas of technological development, or the importance direction of adjusting the economic structure to more effectively reduce our carbon dioxide emissions growth. Through research we found:the capital formation process of construction, consumption of other sectoral products by machinery and equipment manufacturing sector, exports and capital formation process of machinery and equipment manufacturing are the important factors which impact on China's carbon dioxide emissions. Their impacts on sectoral carbon dioxide emissions are relatively significant. Of which the most influential behavioral factor is impact of production consumption of the oil extraction industry by the oil processing industry on the carbon dioxide emissions of oil extraction industry. The capital formation process of construction is the most important behavior factor to impact on the sectoral carbon dioxide emissions when change the coefficient of final demand. The own products consumption by Fabricated Metal Products is the most important indirect impact on carbon dioxide emissions of metal Mineral Mining sector. The carbon dioxide emissions of electricity and heat production and supply sector suffer the most impact from economic behaviors.
(5) China has not established an emission trading scheme, but through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a flexible market mechanisms, that China could participate in international emission trading market. Most of the current studies of China's emission trading scheme were focus on the technology transfer of clean development mechanism in China, as well as discussed the scenarios of related policies when China's participate in international emission trading market in future. And there is still no study on the simulation of the existing emission trading policies of China. We constructed the bilateral carbon emission trading model between developed and developing countries. Use the data of China and Japan to develop an empirical study of two types of policies designed by the Chinese government:(1) setting a guiding price for a clean development mechanism; and (2) extracting revenue from enterprises to support the activities of dealing with the challenge of climate change. This study analyzes the feasibility of these two policies and discusses how they influence China-Japan emission trading. The results indicate that:(1) there exist reasonable control scales for the guiding price and the extraction proportion of the policies. Raising the guiding price or extraction proportion within these scales will raise carbon prices and improve the benefit to China in China-Japan bilateral emission trading. (2) If other suppliers successfully entering the China-Japan bilateral emission trading market, which will reduce the allowed space for the carbon price and will reduce China's bargaining space. (3) Compared with the guiding price policy, the extraction policy is more advantageous for mobilizing the enthusiasm of enterprises to reduce administrative intervention and is more conducive to optimization of China's profit.
(1)确定影响能源消费和引起二氧化碳排放的“关键”部门,有利于政府部门有针对的开展二氧化碳减排行动以及制定二氧化碳减排战略和政策,目前国外许多学者提出了多种“关键”部门的定义,同样也提出了多种方法来确定这些部门,但是这些研究都是针对发达国家的,对于中国的这类研究目前仍然没有。我们丛投入产出的视角，结合需求弹性的概念对中国能源消费和二氧化碳排放的“关键”部门进行了了定义。该方法允许我们分析出经济系统能源消费和二氧化碳排放与各部门经济活动的相关性，丛而找出哪些部门在中国政府设量节能减排政策时应该更加给予关注。通过研究我们定义出了中国三大产业中的“关键”部门,这类部门是中国政府设计节能减排政策时需要重点关注的部门；其中电力与热力的生产和供应业,非金属矿物制品业,钢压延加工业,化学工业和建筑业是最为“关键”的部门,对于这类部门的考虑需要特别慎重。虽然在部门内部实行节能减排措施可能会带来较好的减排效果,但是这些节能减排措施可能引起部门供给能力不够,对整个经济系统的发展造成制约。
(2)随着环境问题日益受到关注,第三产业被普遍认为是应该长期支持其发展的“低碳”部门。目前国内外研究中,对于这方面的研究仅有一篇关于西班牙服务型部门的研究,对于中国的研究仍然没有。我们利用投入产出子系统(I-O Subsystem)方法根据工业部门消费行为把中国第三产业生产活动引起的二氧化碳排放划分为五部分进行深入分析,探讨中国的第三产业的二氧化碳排放问题。研究结果表明在制定第三产业环境政策的时候,应该更加注重考虑间接排放在第三产业二氧化碳排放中所发挥的作用；而第三产业部门活动对其他部门二氧化碳排放产生的拉动效应更是考虑的重点,其中教育、卫生、行政机关及其他行业、饮食、批发零售业、交通运输及仓储业这些部门对其他部门排放的拉动效应作为重中之重。因此,如何分散第三产业发展对第一、二产业排放的拉动效应,把第三产业的消费重点转移至非碳密集型行业,是形成中国第三产业低碳发展之路的重要手段；另外,降低中国碳密集型行业的碳排放强度也有利于减少第三产业的排放。
(3)贸易全球化给气候变化带来了不确定性,“碳泄漏”问题长期以来成为了气候变化谈判的重要焦点之一。因此,国际贸易引起的温室气体排放在全球气候变化谈判议程中是不可忽略的一项内容。目前国内外许多研究都探讨了此问题,在中国贸易引起的问题探讨上已有许多国内外学者进行了大量的研究,但是在核算过程中,对于进口国技术系数通常采用出口国技术系数来代替,从而影响了结果的准确性,我们按照生产国技术系数核算了进口和出口贸易引起的碳排放,从而增加了核算结果的准确性。基于投入产出模型，本研究尝试丛部门间商品进出口贸易的角度对中国和美国商品进出口贸易引起的二氧化碳排放进行探讨，希望通过对部门深入分析的方法，更加全面的了解中国和美国商品贸易对国家和全球的二氧化碳排放所造成的影响。根据投入产出模型,我们核算了国际贸易对国家和全球二氧化碳排放产生的影响。通过研究得到以下结论：2007年,美国通过消费中国进口商品,减少了国内79.14Mt的二氧化碳排放,同时增加了全球225.61Mt的二氧化碳排放；中国通过消费美国进口商品,减少了国内81.75Mt的二氧化碳排放,同时减少了全球56.22Mt的二氧化碳排放；总体上看,中国和美国的贸易行为增加了全球169.40Mt的二氧化碳排放。其中,中国的加工制造业,特别是金属制品业、机械设备制造业和交通设备制造业三类部门,是中美贸易引起全球二氧化碳排放增长的主要贡献者,贡献了96.45%的份额。因此,我们认为,针对加工制造业,特别是化学制品业、金属制品业、非金属矿物制品业、机械设备制造业和交通设备制造业五类部门,适当调整贸易结构,加强合理的部门技术转让(例如,CDM项目中的行业技术转让机制),从美国等发达国家优先学习这些部门的“清洁”生产技术和管理经验,减少国际贸易对中国产生的负面环境影响,减少全球二氧化碳排放：同时减少的二氧化碳排放可以作为发达国家通过技术转让获得的排放许可,进而达到多方获利的结果。
(4)审视一个经济体内部行业间的关系,如果能够合理调整行业内部的结构关系,在保证GDP增长不受限制的情况下改变行业间关系,从而减少高强度或者高产出部门在二氧化碳总排放中贡献的比重,进而达到减排的目的。目前国内外对于这方面的研究仅有一篇关于西班牙的研究,对于中国在这方面的研究仍然没有。我们提供了一种分析产品产易行为对部门和国家二氧化碳影响的工具，对中国部门间产品交易行为和产品最终消费行为进行了实证研究，系统的展示了一幅部门经济结构变动对中国二氧化碳排放影响的蓝图，进一步发现影响部门和国家二氧化碳排放相关经济活动的关键环节，此过程不仅仅使我们能够看出经济交易行为对各部门二氧化碳排放的直接影响,而且能够看出这些经济行为对各部门二氧化碳排放的间接影响，丛而可以选择技术发展的重点环节，或者调整经济结构的重要方向所在，使得可以更加有效的降低我国二氧化碳排放增长的速度。通过研究我们发现：建筑业的资本形成过程、机械设备制造业对其他部门产品的消耗、机械设备制造业出口和资本形成过程是影响中国二氧化碳排放的重要因素,对各行业二氧化碳排放的影响都较为显著。在所有的经济行为中,对部门二氧化碳影响最大的行为因素是石油加工业购买石油开采业产品,对石油开采业二氧化碳排放带来的影响；建筑业的资本形成过程是最终需求系数(最终需求结构)变化是对部门二氧化碳排放影响比例最高的经济行为；经济交易行为带来的间接影响最大的是金属制品业对本部门产品的消耗行为,显著影响金属矿采选业的二氧化碳排放；在最终需求系数变动造成的二氧化碳影响中,造成间接影响最大的经济行为是建筑业的资本形成总额变动对非金属矿物制品业二氧化碳排放的影响。从部门二氧化碳排放受到的总影响来看,电力、热力生产供应业二氧化碳排放受到影响最大。
(5)中国尚未制定自己的排放权交易市场,但是通过清洁发展机制的灵活市场机制中国可以参与到国际排放权交易市场中去,通过国际合作,为中国应对气候变化、减排温室气体的行动提供一定的资金支持和技术帮助。目前对于中国排放权交易的研究中,大量研究关注与清洁发展机制带来的技术转让方向的研究,以及对将来中国参与国际排放权交易可能的发展情景和可能采取相关政策的模拟研究,而对国内已有相关策略的模拟研究仍然较少。我们在前人研究基础上构造了发达国家与发展中国家的双边碳排放交易模型,并把中国与日本碳排放交易数据引入模型，对中国政府制定的两类政策进行实证；(1)清洁发展机制项目指导价格；(2)政府抽取企业收入用于在资金上支持应对气候变化活动。分析设置这两种政策对中日碳排放交易会产生什么样的影响?并且讨论这两种政策的合理性。研究结果表明：中日双边排放交易中,限价和抽取比例的设置都存在一个合理调整区间,在合理区间内提高限价或者抽取比例可以提升市场交易价格,增加中国获利。如果考虑CDM市场之外的其他供给方成功进入此排放交易市场,并且通过竞争分享日本减排目标的份额逐渐增大时(即其他供给方竞争力增强),那么市场价格的可调整空间将会减小,从而减少了中国“讨价还价”的空间。另外,相对于限价政策,政府抽取企业收入政策通过对企业按比例抽取费用来引导企业提升价格,属于一种市场调控行为,更有利于调动企业的积极性,降低政府对市场的行政干预,从而有利于发展中国家利益的整体优化。
Global climate change has become the one of most important research focus in the field of energy policy and environmental management. Address the climate change need to deal with the conflicting issues between greenhouse gas emission reduction and socio-economic development. As one of the greatest emitters of greenhouse gas in the world, an industrializing developing country, shows more complicate problem of conflict between economic development and greenhouse gas emission reduction. With the increasing pressure of greenhouse gas emission reduction, the study of China's energy conservation policy and carbon dioxide emission reduction policies has become one of the hottest issues on the fields of international academic research. How to coordinate the balance of relationship between economic development and carbon dioxide emissions has become an urgent need to address strategic issues. Therefore, this job applies a number of models and methodologies to quantitative research the critical path of reducing the growth rate of China's carbon dioxide emissions, and the impact of the emission reduction policies in current and possible implemented in future on the China's socio-economic. Main innovations are as follows:
(1) Determine the "key" sectors, which caused a lot of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, will help government departments to carry out strategies and policies of carbon dioxide emission reduction. Many scholars have present a variety of "key" sectors definition, also made a variety of methods to determine those sectors, but these studies are focus on developed countries, for such research on China is still do not. We view from I-O analysis, combined with the concept of elasticity of demand, defined the "key" sectors of China's energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. This method allows us to analyze the relationship of energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and sectoral economic activities, further to find out which sectors should be pay more attentions when China's government designing the energy saving and emissions reduction policy. In this study, we defined the China's "key" sectors of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, which are the key roles when design of China's energy saving and emissions reduction policies. In which the departments of electricity and heat production and supply, non-metallic mineral products, steel rolling processing industry, chemical industry and construction are the most critical sectors, when consider energy saving and emission reduction in these sectors requires special caution, or else it may resulting in the constrained the development of economic systems.
(2) With the growing concern on the environmental issues, the tertiary industry is generally considered as "low carbon" industry to be long-term support of its development. Only a study on Spanish services has researched this problem, the research for the Chinese still do not. The carbon dioxide emissions caused by production activities of China's tertiary industry are divided into five parts by using input-output subsystem (I-O Subsystem) approach, according to the consumer behavior of industrial sectors, then in-depth analysis of carbon dioxide emissions of China's tertiary industry. The results show that the indirect emissions of the tertiary industry should pay more attention when designing the environmental policy. While the pull effect of tertiary sectoral activities on carbon dioxide emissions of other sectors can not be ignored. In which the pull effects of education, health, administrative agencies and other industries, catering, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing industry on other sectors are most important. Therefore, how to spread the pull effect of industrial emissions on the first industry and second industry, and how to shift the tertiary sectoral consumption focus of carbon-intensive sectors to non-carbon-intensive sectors, are the important points to formation of China's low-carbon development path of the tertiary industry. In addition, reducing the carbon emissions intensity is also conducive to reduce emissions of the tertiary industry.
(3) The globalization of trade has brought to the uncertainty of climate change, "carbon leakage" have long been an important focus in the climate change negotiations. Therefore, the greenhouse gas emissions caused by international trade can not be ignored in the agenda of global climate change negotiations. Many studies have explored this issue, but in most studies, they used the technical coefficients of importing countries to instead of exporting countries, thus affecting the accuracy of the results. We use the technical coefficients of each country to increase the accuracy of the results. In this study, we use the I-O model to analysis of the carbon dioxide emissions caused by international trade from the inter-sectoral perspective. We accounted for assessing the impact of carbon dioxide emissions caused by international trade on national and global carbon dioxide emissions through the in-depth analysis. Our initial findings reveal that:In 2007, the US reduced 79.14Mt CO2 emissions through the consumption of imported goods from China, while increasing global CO2 emissions by about 225.61Mt. Similarly, China reduced 81.75Mt CO2 emissions through the consumption of US goods, while reducing global CO2 emissions by 56.22Mt. Sino-US international trade increased global CO2 emissions by 169.40Mt as a whole, of which the Fabricated Metal Products, Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing and Transportation Equipment sectors contributed a 96.45% share. Therefore, we suggest that accelerating the adjustment of China's trade structure and export of US advanced technologies and experience related to clean production and energy efficiency to China as the way to reduce the negative impact of Sino-US trade on national and global CO2 emissions. This behavior should take into account the processing and manufacturing industries as apriority, especially the Chemical, Fabricated Metal Products, Non-metallic Mineral Products, Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing and Transportation Equipment sectors.
(4) Examine the relationship of sectors within an economy, if we can rationalize the structure of relationships within the industry, ensure that changes the relationship of sectors without impact on the GDP growth, to reduce the share of high-intensity or high-yield sectors in total carbon dioxide emissions, thus achieving the emission reduction objectives without reduce the GDP growth. There is only one related study on Spanish, related on China's research in this field is still do not. We provide a tool to analyze the impact of trading behavior of sectors on carbon dioxide emissions. And further we find out the key part of economic activity which impact on the national and sectoral carbon dioxide emissions. This process not only allows us to see the direct impact of sectoral economic transactions on each secotral carbon dioxide emissions, but also we can see the indirect effects. Thus we can choose the key areas of technological development, or the importance direction of adjusting the economic structure to more effectively reduce our carbon dioxide emissions growth. Through research we found:the capital formation process of construction, consumption of other sectoral products by machinery and equipment manufacturing sector, exports and capital formation process of machinery and equipment manufacturing are the important factors which impact on China's carbon dioxide emissions. Their impacts on sectoral carbon dioxide emissions are relatively significant. Of which the most influential behavioral factor is impact of production consumption of the oil extraction industry by the oil processing industry on the carbon dioxide emissions of oil extraction industry. The capital formation process of construction is the most important behavior factor to impact on the sectoral carbon dioxide emissions when change the coefficient of final demand. The own products consumption by Fabricated Metal Products is the most important indirect impact on carbon dioxide emissions of metal Mineral Mining sector. The carbon dioxide emissions of electricity and heat production and supply sector suffer the most impact from economic behaviors.
(5) China has not established an emission trading scheme, but through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a flexible market mechanisms, that China could participate in international emission trading market. Most of the current studies of China's emission trading scheme were focus on the technology transfer of clean development mechanism in China, as well as discussed the scenarios of related policies when China's participate in international emission trading market in future. And there is still no study on the simulation of the existing emission trading policies of China. We constructed the bilateral carbon emission trading model between developed and developing countries. Use the data of China and Japan to develop an empirical study of two types of policies designed by the Chinese government:(1) setting a guiding price for a clean development mechanism; and (2) extracting revenue from enterprises to support the activities of dealing with the challenge of climate change. This study analyzes the feasibility of these two policies and discusses how they influence China-Japan emission trading. The results indicate that:(1) there exist reasonable control scales for the guiding price and the extraction proportion of the policies. Raising the guiding price or extraction proportion within these scales will raise carbon prices and improve the benefit to China in China-Japan bilateral emission trading. (2) If other suppliers successfully entering the China-Japan bilateral emission trading market, which will reduce the allowed space for the carbon price and will reduce China's bargaining space. (3) Compared with the guiding price policy, the extraction policy is more advantageous for mobilizing the enthusiasm of enterprises to reduce administrative intervention and is more conducive to optimization of China's profit.
引文
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Miller, R.A., Blair, P.D.1985. Input-Output:foundations and extensions[J]. Prentice-Hall, New Jersey.
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Munksgaard, J., Pedersen, K. A.2001. CO2 accounts for open economies:producer or consumer responsibility[J]. Energy Policy,29:327-334.
Pan, H.2005. The cost efficiency of Kyoto flexible mechanisms:a top-down study with the
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Pasinetti, L.1973. The notion of vertical integration in economic analysis[J]. Metroeconomica,25: 1-29.
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Rehdanz, K., Tol, R. S. J.2005. Unilateral regulation of bilateral trade in greenhouse gas emission permits[J]. Ecological Economics,54:397-416.
Reinvang, R., Peters, G.2008. Norwegian Consumption, Chinese pollution. An example of how OECD imports generate CO2 emissions in developing countries[J]. IndEcol Report no.1/2008, world wildlife fund (WWF).
Rong, A., Lahdelma, R.2007, CO2 emissions trading planning in combined heat and power production via multi-period stochastic optimization. European Journal of Operational Research, 176:1874-1895.
Rothman, D. S.2000. Measuring environmental values and environmental impacts:going from the local to the global[J]. Climatic Change,44:351-376.
Sakai, S.2000. Application of sensitivity analysis technique to an environmental estimation of machinery[J]. Science of Machine,52:619-24.
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Skolka, J.1986. Input-Output multipliers and linkages[M]. Eighth International Conference on Input-Output Techniques. Sapporo, Japan.
Setden T. M., Song D.1994. Environmental quality and development:is there a Kuznets Curve for
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Sraffa, P.1960. Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities[J]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
Suri, V., Chapman, D.1998. Economic growth, trade, and energy:implications for the environmental Kuznets curve[J]. Ecological Economics,25:195-208.
Tarancon Moran, M. A., Gonzalez, P. R.2007a. CO2 emissions and intersectoral linkages:The case of Spain[J]. Energy Policy,35:1100-1116.
Tarancon Moran, M. A., Gonzalez, P. R.2007b. A combined input-output and sensitivity analysis
approach to analyse sector linkages and CO2 emissions[J]. Energy Economics,29:578-597.
Toh, M. H.1998. The RAS Approach in Updating Input-Output Matrices:An Instrumental
Variable Interpretation and Analysis of Structural Change[J]. Economic Systems Research,1: 63-79.
Van S. V.2002. CO2 Abatement Costs and Permits' Price:Exploring the Impact of Banking and the Role of Future Commitments [J]. Belgium:Universite Catholique de Louvain.
Walter, I.1973. The pollution content of American trade[J]. Western Economic Journal, Ⅺ(1): 61-70.
Weber, C. L., Matthews, H. S.2007. Embodied environmental emissions in US international trade: 1997-2004[J]. Environmental Science and Technology,41:4875-4881.
Weber, C. L., Peters, G. P., Hubacek, K., Guan, D.2008. The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change[J]. Energy Policy,36:3572-3577.
Wiedmann, T., Wood, R., Minx, J., Lenzen, M., Harris, R.2008. Emissions embedded in UK Trade-UK-MRIO model results and error estimates. In:International Input-Output Meeting on
Managing the Environment[M]. ⅡOA, Seville, Spain.
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Zhang, Z. X.2002. The economic effects of an alternative EU emissions policy[J]. Journal of Policy Modeling,24:667-677.
Zhang, Z. X.2004. Meeting the Kyoto targets:the importance of developing country participation. Journal of Policy Modeling,26:3-19.
Zhang, Z. X.2006. Toward an effective implementation of clean development mechanism projects in China. Energy Policy,34:3691-3701.