区域间劳动力迁移对经济增长和地区差距的影响
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摘要
一般认为,劳动力从欠发达地区向发达地区迁移会导致显著的收敛效果,因为劳动力迁移可能会缩小地区间工资差异和资源禀赋差异,但国外的经验研究表明,在有些国家区域间劳动力迁移缩小了地区差距(以人均GDP衡量),而在另一些国家则正好相反,这一现象被称为劳动力流动中的“迁移谜题”,对此目前还缺乏一个明确的理论解释。本文通过在新经济地理学的框架下引入资本的外部性、劳动力的不完全流动性以及城市经济学中的拥挤效应,建立了一个两区域经济增长模型。证明了由于存在“资本追逐劳动”的现象,区域间的劳动力迁移可能缩小、也可能扩大地区差距,这主要取决于资本的外部性和拥挤效应的相对大小,以及农村和城镇居民的技能差异,从而为“迁移谜题”提供了一个较合理的理论解释。
大多数对中国劳动力迁移与地区差距关系的研究都认为区域间劳动力流动有助于缩小地区差距。本文根据2002年中国各地区投入产出表以及其他多种数据来源,估计了中国9种商品的区域间贸易矩阵,构建了各地区2002年的社会核算矩阵(Social Accounting Matrix)并根据2004年最新经济普查数据进行了更新。在此基础上本文建立了一个包含大陆30个地区的递推动态可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),根据中国劳动力迁移的实际情形并考虑了外出劳动力汇款、外地劳动力与本地劳动力工资差异、人口流动滞后于劳动力流动等多种因素,模拟了不同劳动力迁移情景下各地区的经济增长、全国地区差距变化情况,得出了与理论模型相似的结论,即区域间劳动力迁移并不一定能缩小人均产出的地区差距,但由于汇款等因素,中国的区域间劳动力流动可以缩小各地区人均收入水平和人均消费的差距。这些模拟结果与现有的大多数研究结论显著不同,因此本文的研究加深了对劳动力迁移与地区差距关系的理解。
另外本文的模拟结果显示,对于劳动力输出地来说,劳动力输出可能提高、也可能降低GDP增长速度,但由于人口流出,人均GDP的增长速度有所提高,加上外迁劳动力带回了大量的汇款,人均消费水平提高很快。对劳动力输入地来说,劳动力流入降低了城镇劳动力的工资增长速度,但可以加快当地的经济增长速度并提高地方政府的财政收入。最后,由于劳动力迁移改善了要素在全国的配置,全国总体的经济增长率有所提高。
According to traditional theory, migration from low income regions to high income ones should have been an important source of convergence, but empirical researches find that migration in fact enlarge regional inequality in some countries. Some economists call this apparent gap by“Migration puzzle”. Many people have tried to answer this puzzle but have not got a satisfactory one yet. Based on the framework of new economic geography first founded by Paul Krugman, a dynamic general equilibrium model, in which capital and labor mobility was introduced, was founded to study the roles of internal migration on regional income convergence. Contrary to traditional theory, the model shows that labor migration needn’t give rise to income convergence because the effect of“capital-chasing-labor”. The most important facts influence the relation of internal migration and regional convergence are the intensity of“learning by doing”, congestion costs, and skill difference between city natives and new immigrants.
Based on the 2002 China Regional Input-Output tables and other data from various sources, 30 provincial Social Accounting Matrixs were constructed, and then a 30 regions recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) was also founded to study the effect of inter-regional labor migration in China. This model has carefully taken into account of many migration characteristics in China, such as Circular migration, population migration lagged with labor migration, large amount of cash transfer and so on. By compare the regional economy growth rates and Gini coefficients of per-capita GDP and per-capita consumption under different labor migration rates, we find that inter-regional labor migration has little effect on the evolution of regional disparity of per capita GDP. However, we do find that regional disparity of per capita consumption decreased with the increasing number of internal migration. We can show that this is mainly due to the special migration characteristics of large scale of cash transfer between emigration and immigration regions. This result different much from many empirical studies of China’s labor migration, most of which argue that inter-region migration in China will contribute much to the convergence of regional economy, but it do consistent with the theory model constructed in this paper. Also the result is consistent with the evolution of china regional disparity.
According to the simulation results of CGE model, labor immigration can improve region’s economic growth rate and increase the government revenue while lower the wage of urban labors. For the net emigration regions, the GDP growth rate may increase or decrease as the rural labor migrate to other regions, but the growth rate of per-capita GDP, per-capita consumption and per-capital income will be increased greatly. Finaly, the results indicate that inter-region migration is helpful in national economic growth, due to the more efficiently allocation of labor in the regions.
大多数对中国劳动力迁移与地区差距关系的研究都认为区域间劳动力流动有助于缩小地区差距。本文根据2002年中国各地区投入产出表以及其他多种数据来源,估计了中国9种商品的区域间贸易矩阵,构建了各地区2002年的社会核算矩阵(Social Accounting Matrix)并根据2004年最新经济普查数据进行了更新。在此基础上本文建立了一个包含大陆30个地区的递推动态可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),根据中国劳动力迁移的实际情形并考虑了外出劳动力汇款、外地劳动力与本地劳动力工资差异、人口流动滞后于劳动力流动等多种因素,模拟了不同劳动力迁移情景下各地区的经济增长、全国地区差距变化情况,得出了与理论模型相似的结论,即区域间劳动力迁移并不一定能缩小人均产出的地区差距,但由于汇款等因素,中国的区域间劳动力流动可以缩小各地区人均收入水平和人均消费的差距。这些模拟结果与现有的大多数研究结论显著不同,因此本文的研究加深了对劳动力迁移与地区差距关系的理解。
另外本文的模拟结果显示,对于劳动力输出地来说,劳动力输出可能提高、也可能降低GDP增长速度,但由于人口流出,人均GDP的增长速度有所提高,加上外迁劳动力带回了大量的汇款,人均消费水平提高很快。对劳动力输入地来说,劳动力流入降低了城镇劳动力的工资增长速度,但可以加快当地的经济增长速度并提高地方政府的财政收入。最后,由于劳动力迁移改善了要素在全国的配置,全国总体的经济增长率有所提高。
According to traditional theory, migration from low income regions to high income ones should have been an important source of convergence, but empirical researches find that migration in fact enlarge regional inequality in some countries. Some economists call this apparent gap by“Migration puzzle”. Many people have tried to answer this puzzle but have not got a satisfactory one yet. Based on the framework of new economic geography first founded by Paul Krugman, a dynamic general equilibrium model, in which capital and labor mobility was introduced, was founded to study the roles of internal migration on regional income convergence. Contrary to traditional theory, the model shows that labor migration needn’t give rise to income convergence because the effect of“capital-chasing-labor”. The most important facts influence the relation of internal migration and regional convergence are the intensity of“learning by doing”, congestion costs, and skill difference between city natives and new immigrants.
Based on the 2002 China Regional Input-Output tables and other data from various sources, 30 provincial Social Accounting Matrixs were constructed, and then a 30 regions recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) was also founded to study the effect of inter-regional labor migration in China. This model has carefully taken into account of many migration characteristics in China, such as Circular migration, population migration lagged with labor migration, large amount of cash transfer and so on. By compare the regional economy growth rates and Gini coefficients of per-capita GDP and per-capita consumption under different labor migration rates, we find that inter-regional labor migration has little effect on the evolution of regional disparity of per capita GDP. However, we do find that regional disparity of per capita consumption decreased with the increasing number of internal migration. We can show that this is mainly due to the special migration characteristics of large scale of cash transfer between emigration and immigration regions. This result different much from many empirical studies of China’s labor migration, most of which argue that inter-region migration in China will contribute much to the convergence of regional economy, but it do consistent with the theory model constructed in this paper. Also the result is consistent with the evolution of china regional disparity.
According to the simulation results of CGE model, labor immigration can improve region’s economic growth rate and increase the government revenue while lower the wage of urban labors. For the net emigration regions, the GDP growth rate may increase or decrease as the rural labor migrate to other regions, but the growth rate of per-capita GDP, per-capita consumption and per-capital income will be increased greatly. Finaly, the results indicate that inter-region migration is helpful in national economic growth, due to the more efficiently allocation of labor in the regions.
引文
① 参见王小鲁等 2004,姚枝仲等 2003 的研究
① 有关CE方法的详细介绍,参见Sherman, et al. (2000)
② 参见《2000 年中国农村劳动力就业及流动状况》
① 《中国农民工调研报告》p77
② 参见《中国农民工调研报告》p76
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① 参见许宪春《中国国内生产总值核算》P65,北京大学出版社,2000
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① 有关CE方法的详细介绍,参见Sherman, et al. (2000)
② 参见《2000 年中国农村劳动力就业及流动状况》
① 《中国农民工调研报告》p77
② 参见《中国农民工调研报告》p76
① 例如郭庆旺、贾俊雪(2005a),郭庆旺等(2005b),岳书敬、刘朝鸣(2006),孙琳琳、任若恩(2005)等。
① 参见许宪春《中国国内生产总值核算》P65,北京大学出版社,2000
1. 陈秀山、徐瑛,2004,“中国区域差距影响因素的实证研究”,《中国社会科学》,2004年第 5 期,117-129
2. 崔传义、2006,“进入新阶段的农村劳动力转移”,国务院发展研究中心调研报告,2007-2-25
3. 蔡昉、王德文,1999,“中国经济增长可持续性与劳动贡献”,《经济研究》,1999 年第10 期,62-68
4. 蔡昉、王美艳,2005,“‘民工荒’现象的经济学分析—珠江三角洲调查研究”,《广东社会科学》,2005 年第 2 期,5-10
5. 蔡昉,2005,“为什么劳动力流动没有缩小城乡收入差距?”《理论前沿》,2005 年第20 期,18-20
6. 段志刚,2004,《中国省级区域可计算一般均衡建模与应用研究》,博士论文,华中科技大学
7. 段志刚、李善同,2004,“北京市结构变化的可计算一般均衡模型”,《数量经济技术经济研究》,2004 年第 12 期,86-94
8. 段志刚、冯珊、岳超源,2003,“中国省级区域产业结构变化的可计算一般均衡模型”,《科技进步与对策》,2004 年 10 月,58-60
9. 段志刚、冯珊、岳超源,2005,“基于 CGE 模型的所得税改革效应分析——以广东为例”,《系统工程学报》,2005 年 4 月,185-192
10. 樊明太、郑玉歆,2000,“贸易自由化对中国经济影响的一般均衡分析”, 《世界经济》, 2000 年第 4 期,16-16.
11. 樊明太、郑玉歆、马纲,1998,“中国 CGE 模型:基本结构及有关问题(上)”, 《数量经济技术经济研究》, 1998 年第 12 期,39-47.
12. 樊明太、郑玉歆、马纲,1999,“中国 CGE 模型:基本结构及有关问题(下)”, 《数量经济技术经济研究》, 1999 年第 4 期,24-30.
13. 樊纲,1995,“既要扩大“分子”也要缩小‘分母’——关于在要素流动中缩小“人均收入”差距的思考”, 中国投资与建设,1995 年第 6 期
14. 国务院研究室课题组,2006,《中国农民工调研报告》,中国言实出版社
15. 高颖、李善同,2006,“基于 CGE 模型对中国基础设施建设的减贫效应分析”,《数量经济技术经济研究》,2006 年第 6 期
16. 郭庆旺、贾俊雪,2005a, “中国全要素生产率的估算:1979-2004”,《经济研究》,2005年第 6 期,51-60
17. 郭庆旺、赵志耘、贾俊雪,2005b,“中国省份经济的全要素生产率分析”,《世界经济》,2005 年第 5 期,46-53
18. 贺菊煌、沈可挺、徐嵩龄,2002,“碳税与二氧化碳减排的 CGE 模型”,《数量经济技术经济研究》,2002 年第 10 期,39-47
19. 胡枫,2006,《中国农村劳动力流动的实证研究》,博士论文,北京大学
20. 霍丽骊、丛亮、张哲人、贺晋,(2006),“CDF_CGE 模型基本结构及应用”,《数量经济技术经济研究》,2006 年第 1 期,117-128
21. 劳动保障部培训就业司、国家统计局农调队课题组,《2000 年中国农村劳动力就业及流动状况》,http://www.chinalao.com/Info/Html/2006/07/28/237.html
22. 刘传江、段平忠,2005,“人口流动对经济增长地区差距的影响”,中国软科学,No.12,99-110
23. 李坤望、张伯伟,1999,“APEC 贸易自由化行动的评估”,《世界经济》,1999 年第 7期,40-44
24. 李洪心、付伯颍,2004,“对环境税的一般均衡分析与应用模式探讨”,《中国人口、资源与环境》,2004 年第 3 期,19-22
25. 李善同、翟凡、徐林,2000a,“中国加入世界贸易组织对中国经济的影响——动态一般均衡分析”,《世界经济》,2000 年第 2 期,3-15.
26. 李善同、翟凡,2000b, “加入世界贸易组织对中国经济的影响”, 《预测》,2000 年第 3期 6-12.
27. 李善同、何建武,2007,“后配额时期中国、美国及欧盟纺织品贸易政策的影响分析”,《世界经济》,2007 年第 1 期,3-11
28. 李永、刘鹃,2004,“入世后中国产业政策有效性的 CGE 分析”,《国际贸易问题》,2004年第 5 期,25-29
29. 李雪松,2000,“加入 WTO 对中国经济影响的 CGE 模型比较分析”,《数量经济技术经济研究》,2000 年第 10 期,21-24
30. 林毅夫、刘明兴,2003,“中国的经济增长收敛与收入分配”,《世界经济》,2003 年第8 期, 3-14
31. 林园丁、段志刚、朱怀意,2003,“基于 CGE 模型的广东省所得税改革效应分析”,《税务与经济》,2003 年第 6 期,41-45
32. 庞军、邹骥,2005,“可计算一般均衡模型与环境政策分析”,《中国人口资源与环境》,2005 年第 1 期,56-60
33. 孙琳琳、任若恩,2005,“中国资本投入和全要素生产率的估算”,《世界经济》,2005年第 12 期,3-13
34. Sicular, T,赵耀辉,2004,“中国农村居民收入和农村劳动力的流动性——中国加入世贸组织的意义”,载于 Bhattasali,D. 李善同.Martin,W 主编《中国与 WTO——入世、政策变革和减贫战略》,中国财政经济出版社
35. 宋洪远、黄华波、刘光明,2002,“关于农村劳动力流动的政策问题分析”,《管理世界》,2002 年第 5 期,55-65
36. 王京芳、刘丽丽、盛其杰,2005,“环境税的倍加红利效应及 CGE 模型对其的支持”,《城市环境与城市生态》,2005 年 6 月,17-19
37. 王德发,2006,“能源税征收的劳动替代效应实证研究—基于上海市 2002 年大气污染的 CGE 模型试片”,《财经研究》,2006 年第 2 期,98-105
38. 王小鲁、樊纲等,2000,《中国经济增长的可持续性———跨世纪的回顾与展望》,经济科学出版社
39. 王小鲁、樊纲,2004,《中国地区差距的变动趋势和影响因素》,《经济研究》,2004 年第 1 期,33-44
40. 王志刚,2004:“质疑中国经济增长的条件收敛性”,《管理世界》,2004 年第 3 期,25-30
41. 万广华、陆铭、陈钊,2005,“全球化与地区间收入差距,来自中国的证据”,《中国社会科学》,2005 年第 3 期,17-26
42. 王德、朱玮、叶晖,2003,“1985-2000 年中国人口迁移对区域经济差异的均衡作用研究”,人口与经济,2003 年第 6 期,1-9
43. 王韬、周建军,2004,“中国进口关税减让的宏观经济效应——可计算一般均衡模型分析”,《系统工程》,2004 年第 2 期,38-45
44. 王灿,2003, 《基于动态 CGE 模型的中国气候政策模拟与分析》,博士学位论文,清华大学
45. 王灿、陈吉宁、邹骥,2005,“基于CGE模型的CO2减排对中国经济的影响”,《清华大学学报》,2005 年第 12 期,1621-1624
46. 王飞,2004,“中国区域经济发展与劳动力转移”,《CCER 学刊》,2004 年第 4 期,59-80
47. 许宪春,2000,《中国国内生产总值核算》,北京大学出版社
48. 许召元、李善同,2006,“近年来中国地区差距的变化趋势”,《经济研究》,2006 年第7 期
49. 薛敬孝、张伯伟,2004,“东亚经贸合作安排:基于可计算一般均衡模型的比较研究”,《世界经济》,2004 年第 6 期,51-59
50. 姚先国、赖普清,2004,“中国劳资关系的城乡户籍差异”,《经济研究》,2004 年第 7期,82-90
51. 姚枝仲、周素芳,2003,“劳动力流动与地区差距”,《世界经济》,2003 年第 4 期,2-11
52. 岳书敬、刘朝明,2006,“人力资本与区域全要素生产率分析”,《经济研究》,2006 年第 4 期,90-96
53. 袁志刚,2006,“中国的乡-城劳动力流动与城镇失业:一个经验研究”,《管理世界》,2006 年第 8 期,28-35
54. 翟凡, 李善同, 冯珊, 1997, “一个中国经济的可计算一般均衡模型”, 《数量经济技术经济研究》,1997 年第 3 期,38-44.
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