平原河网地区洪水资源利用问题研究
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摘要
经济社会可持续发展对水资源需求的全面提升,不仅意味着供水量的增加,更对供水保证率及水质标准提出了更高的要求。我国大部分地区汛期年内连续4个月的降水量占全年的60%～80%,即水资源有2/3左右是难于利用的洪水径流量,在水资源供需矛盾日益突出的背景下,洪水资源利用问题愈显重要。本文以天津市北三河系平原河网地区为例,对雨洪水资源利用的可行性研究、丰枯补偿特性分析、蓄滞洪区洪水资源利用问题、平原河道洪水资源的模拟分析以及平原河网洪水资源利用问题进行了深入研究,主要内容和结论如下:
(1)针对雨洪水资源化潜力的动态性,引入雨洪水资源化理论潜力、可实现潜力、现实潜力和待开发潜力的概念,经计算得出:天津市北三河各流域有进行雨洪资源利用的水资源条件,同时指出北三河系有洪水资源利用的工程条件,因此,在该流域开展雨洪水资源利用工作是必要的、可行的。
(2)依次采用集对分析方法和Copula函数方法对天津市北三河各流域的降雨、入境径流量、入境径流量同境内降雨、入海水量的丰枯补偿特性进行了分析,两种方法相互验证,为水资源补偿特性分析提供了新途径,分析结果表明:北三河系的洪水资源利用模式并没达到较为理想的结果,在该地区进行补偿调度是可行的、有意义的。
(3)指出蓄滞洪区存蓄洪水产生的损失应包括淹没损失和后期遭遇洪水时产生的附加损失两部分内容,并建议采用“附加损失期望值”的概念来描述附加损失的平均大小;构建了蓄滞洪区洪灾风险评价指标体系,给出了相对风险度的计算方法及评判标准;以大黄堡洼为例,对其洪水资源利用各蓄水情景进行了损失、效益估算,举例说明了相对风险度较综合风险度更能增强决策者的风险意识,从而提出应对策略。
(4)阐述了洪水资源利用规划的内涵,总结了洪水资源利用方案的综合评价方法,将所建立的适用于平原河网地区的蓄满-超渗-蓄满三层耦合产流模型和一维非恒定流平原河网模型,应用到考虑洪水资源利用因素的实时调度中,并以大黄堡洼为典型区域进行了模拟计算,给出了控制分洪水量依次为708万m3和1034万m3时的损失、效益和风险值。
The comprehensive enhancement of requirement of water resources from sustainable development of economy and society, not only requires increasing water supply amount, but also requires the higher water supply guarantee rate and the higher water quality standard. In most areas of China, the precipitation amount of flood season is account for 60%-80% to that of the year, that is to say about 2/3 water resources is flood runoff which is difficult to utilize, therefore the problem of flood utilization is more significant on the background of more serious conflict between water supply and water demand. Taking Beisan River net of Tianjin city for example, this dissertation is processed surrounding feasibility study of flood utilization, compensation characteristics of ample flow and low water, flood utilization in flood detention area, the simulation analysis of flood resources in plain channel, and flood utilization in plain river network. The main research contents and conclusions can be summarized as following:
(1)The conception and arithmetic of theoretical, available, realized and to be exploited potentials of rain-flood resources are introduced for its dynamic characteristic. The calculation results show that: there are water resources conditions and engineering conditions, thereby it is necessary and feasible to carry out flood utilization job.
(2)Using the Set pair theory and Copula function which are provided new way for compensation analysis, the compensation characteristics of precipitation, inflow runoff, inflow runoff and precipitation, outflow runoff is analyzed, through verifying each other, the result show that it is feasible and meaningful to prosecute compensation regulation in Beisan river network area for it’s imperfect flood utilization pattern.
(3)The loss caused by storing flood in detention basin should contain submerge loss and additional loss produced by encountering flood later, and“the expectation value of additional loss”is proposed to describe the average value of additional loss. Then the risk estimation index system of detention basin is constructed, the calculation method and judge criteria of relative risk are presented. At last, the loss and benefit of each water storage scene are calculated and with contrast of comprehensive risk value, relative risk value can enhance the decision-maker’s risk consciousness and so as to corresponding management strategy can be proposed.
(4)The connotation of flood utilization layout is described, comprehensive evaluation methods of the projects are summarized. Three layers runoff yield model on the plain area, which is coupled of full storage, excess infiltration and full storage, and 1-D unsteady flow computation model are applied to real-time regulation considering flood utilizing factor. Taking Dahuangpu detention basin as a representative area, the loss, benefit, and risk under storage water quantity of 7.08×106 m3 and 1.034×107 m3 are given out.
(1)针对雨洪水资源化潜力的动态性,引入雨洪水资源化理论潜力、可实现潜力、现实潜力和待开发潜力的概念,经计算得出:天津市北三河各流域有进行雨洪资源利用的水资源条件,同时指出北三河系有洪水资源利用的工程条件,因此,在该流域开展雨洪水资源利用工作是必要的、可行的。
(2)依次采用集对分析方法和Copula函数方法对天津市北三河各流域的降雨、入境径流量、入境径流量同境内降雨、入海水量的丰枯补偿特性进行了分析,两种方法相互验证,为水资源补偿特性分析提供了新途径,分析结果表明:北三河系的洪水资源利用模式并没达到较为理想的结果,在该地区进行补偿调度是可行的、有意义的。
(3)指出蓄滞洪区存蓄洪水产生的损失应包括淹没损失和后期遭遇洪水时产生的附加损失两部分内容,并建议采用“附加损失期望值”的概念来描述附加损失的平均大小;构建了蓄滞洪区洪灾风险评价指标体系,给出了相对风险度的计算方法及评判标准;以大黄堡洼为例,对其洪水资源利用各蓄水情景进行了损失、效益估算,举例说明了相对风险度较综合风险度更能增强决策者的风险意识,从而提出应对策略。
(4)阐述了洪水资源利用规划的内涵,总结了洪水资源利用方案的综合评价方法,将所建立的适用于平原河网地区的蓄满-超渗-蓄满三层耦合产流模型和一维非恒定流平原河网模型,应用到考虑洪水资源利用因素的实时调度中,并以大黄堡洼为典型区域进行了模拟计算,给出了控制分洪水量依次为708万m3和1034万m3时的损失、效益和风险值。
The comprehensive enhancement of requirement of water resources from sustainable development of economy and society, not only requires increasing water supply amount, but also requires the higher water supply guarantee rate and the higher water quality standard. In most areas of China, the precipitation amount of flood season is account for 60%-80% to that of the year, that is to say about 2/3 water resources is flood runoff which is difficult to utilize, therefore the problem of flood utilization is more significant on the background of more serious conflict between water supply and water demand. Taking Beisan River net of Tianjin city for example, this dissertation is processed surrounding feasibility study of flood utilization, compensation characteristics of ample flow and low water, flood utilization in flood detention area, the simulation analysis of flood resources in plain channel, and flood utilization in plain river network. The main research contents and conclusions can be summarized as following:
(1)The conception and arithmetic of theoretical, available, realized and to be exploited potentials of rain-flood resources are introduced for its dynamic characteristic. The calculation results show that: there are water resources conditions and engineering conditions, thereby it is necessary and feasible to carry out flood utilization job.
(2)Using the Set pair theory and Copula function which are provided new way for compensation analysis, the compensation characteristics of precipitation, inflow runoff, inflow runoff and precipitation, outflow runoff is analyzed, through verifying each other, the result show that it is feasible and meaningful to prosecute compensation regulation in Beisan river network area for it’s imperfect flood utilization pattern.
(3)The loss caused by storing flood in detention basin should contain submerge loss and additional loss produced by encountering flood later, and“the expectation value of additional loss”is proposed to describe the average value of additional loss. Then the risk estimation index system of detention basin is constructed, the calculation method and judge criteria of relative risk are presented. At last, the loss and benefit of each water storage scene are calculated and with contrast of comprehensive risk value, relative risk value can enhance the decision-maker’s risk consciousness and so as to corresponding management strategy can be proposed.
(4)The connotation of flood utilization layout is described, comprehensive evaluation methods of the projects are summarized. Three layers runoff yield model on the plain area, which is coupled of full storage, excess infiltration and full storage, and 1-D unsteady flow computation model are applied to real-time regulation considering flood utilizing factor. Taking Dahuangpu detention basin as a representative area, the loss, benefit, and risk under storage water quantity of 7.08×106 m3 and 1.034×107 m3 are given out.
引文
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