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中国上市商业银行创新能力形成机理及其对绩效的影响研究
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摘要
创新是一个永恒的话题。随着利率市场化改革的深度推进、资本监管的收紧,以及经济结构转型的演进,使得银行作为社会融资中介和支付中介的地位面临严峻挑战,中国银行业传统以息差收入为主要来源的增长模式将难以持续,迫使我国的商业银行必须加快转变传统的经营与盈利模式。而创造最有利于创新的外部环境和培植创新主体的内在创新动力,就成为商业银行深化改革成功与否的重要问题。本文构建了我国商业银行创新能力形成机理的概念模型,分别从外生因素、内生因素所包含的六个维度,系统论述了我国上市商业银行创新能力的形成机理;并使用动态面板模型进行实证分析,揭示了影响我国商业银行创新能力的特殊形成机制;同时,验证了商业银行创新能力对银行绩效的影响。在理论分析和实证分析基础上,探究影响我国商业银行创新能力的特殊背景和深层次形成原因,发现其形成机理,有助于了解我国银行业发展过程中独特的阶段性特点,从而寻找到能够促进银行创新能力提升的有效途径,并最终实现银行业发展方式的成功转型和整体绩效水平的提高。
     本文共分为七章。第一章为绪论,第七章为研究结论与展望。
     第二章为相关文献综述。本章对国内外商业银行创新能力相关研究文献进行系统的回顾和梳理,提出以往研究存在的缺陷和进一步研究的方向。
     第三章为商业银行创新能力形成机理的理论分析。本章首先明确了商业银行创新能力的构成要素和测度评价指标;其次分别从外生因素、内生因素所包含的六个维度:即经济与金融发展水平、“红利效应”和银行业风险监管所构成的外生机理,以及商业银行资源投入、公司治理和“软实力”所构成的内生机理两个方面构建了我国商业银行创新能力形成机理的概念模型,详细论述了我国上市商业银行创新能力的形成机理,并提出研究假设。
     第四章为商业银行创新能力形成机理的实证分析。本章对商业银行创新能力形成机理中可量化的外生因素和内生因素进行了实证分析。实证结果一方面验证了理论假设,另一方面也获得了一些很具有启发意义的结果。
     第五章实证分析了商业银行创新能力对银行绩效的影响。本章着重考察在风险管控条件下商业银行创新能力与银行绩效之间的关系。通过实证分析,研究发现商业银行的创新能力对银行绩效具有显著的正向影响,而且,发现不同性质银行之间其创新能力对绩效的影响也不完全相同。
     第六章在理论分析和实证分析基础上,提出我国商业银行创新能力的提升策略和政策建议。
     通过上述研究,本文得出的主要研究结论如下:
     1.在我国商业银行创新能力形成机制变迁的过程中,影响这一形成过程的因素是多方面的,总体上可以分为两大类:一是经济与金融发展水平、“红利效应”和银行业风险监管所构成的外生机理,二是商业银行资源投入、公司治理和“软实力”所构成的内生机理,它们共同作用的结果构成了现阶段我国商业银行创新能力的形成机理。另外,商业银行创新能力的形成是一个动态发展的过程,而且演变过程所呈现的阶段性特点也较为明显。
     2.定性研究方面。基于行业特殊性的巴塞尔协议Ⅲ等各项监管措施和指标,必然会影响到商业银行的创新能力。新监管标准的实施将有力推动银行业发展转型,特别是受资本监管的约束,推动银行业务结构从高资本占用向低资本占用转变,迫使其寻求更加多样的创新手段以增加赢利能力。此外,商业银行创新的战略管理模式、优秀的企业文化、鼓励创新的制度、银行家的领导魅力以及流程银行再造等因素的协同效应体现了商业银行的“软实力”,这种“软实力”也是银行重要的“生产力”,能够有效整合银行内部各种资源,从多个层面促进着商业银行创新能力的形成。
     3.理论和实证方面。首先,我国商业银行在制度变迁过程中,国民的高储蓄率使商业银行能够长期享用改革进程中的人口红利,长期的利率管制给商业银行创造出租金的机会,这些“红利效应”使银行缺乏创新的动力。同地,我国的货币化率、金融结构指标与银行创新能力负相关,反映出我国投资驱动型为主的经济增长方式,经济的快速增长与信贷大规模的投放高度相关,加上货币的“超发”造成银行信贷的超常增长,货币化过程中商业银行独享的货币化红利,并未提高银行的创新能力,从而转化为金融配置社会资源效率的提高和促进金融深化。
     其次,商业银行公司治理在银行经营中发挥着主导作用,良好的治理结构可以提高银行配置资源的效率,对创新能力起到促进作用。研究发现,合理的股权结构能够促进银行的创新能力,其中第一大股东一股独大的负向作用明显大于其对创新推动的正向作用:而适度的股权分散,通过其他股东积极参与银行治理,可以提高银行的创新能力。国家隐性担保的存在,使国有股东背景的银行能够在创新方而投入更多的资源,承受更大的创新风险。董事会作为银行治理的核心,我国银行董事会规模偏大,增加了沟通协调成本,降低了决策效率,并未对创新能力起到促进作用。而独立董事、监事会制度的作用和独立性并未得到充分发挥。与之相反,合理的高管薪酬激励机制却能够明显改善商业银行的创新能力。
     最后,银行资源投入是创新能力的基础。研究发现,商业银行创新开发应用的范围效应为多产品银行的市场竞争提供了有力的支持。规模经济的扩张很大程度上是以增设分支机构的物理渠道建设来实现的,但是这种依靠增设分支机构数量的粗放型规模扩张模式,并不能有效改善创新能力。银行技术应用可以有效节约银行的经营成本,推动银行经营结构转型和转变发展方式,电子银行自然成为未来银行的发展趋势之一。现阶段商业银行市场占有率更多的体现为存贷款规模,银行获取的是更多的政策红利,并不能使银行的创新能力得到有效改善。此外,人力资本、银行员工的薪酬激励与创新能力正相关,显示出人才在银行创新能力提升中的核心促进作用。
     4.商业银行的创新能力对银行绩效具有显著的正向影响,银行可以通过提高创新能力米提升自身的经营业绩。并且,我们发现,股份制及城市商业银行与国有商业银行的创新能力对绩效的影响方向相同,但是程度不同,股份制及城市商业银行通过提高创新能力来提升经营业绩的作用更大。
     基于我国银行创新能力形成机理的理论和实证分析,我们发现具有独特性和深层次形成原因。据此,提出更具针对性的政策建议,可以从实行市场化的利率定价机制和资本集约化的内涵式发展道路,优化银行内生资源投入和建立有利于创新的治理机制,以及加强银行软实力建设等多个方面提升银行业的整体创新能力水平,这也是我国银行业实现发展方式转变的必由之路。
Innovation is an eternal topic. As the reformation of interest rate liberalization further promotes, the supervision of capital tightens, and the transformation of economic structure gradually progresses, banks are seriously challenged for their role as the intermediaries of social financing and payment, the traditional pattern of growth in China's banking industry where the major source of revenue is based on the interest income is hard to sustain, which forces commercial banks to change their traditional operation and profit model rapidly. Thus, creating the external environment conducive to innovation and fostering the internal motivation for innovation in the innovation subject has become an important issue to determine the success of commercial banks for further reform. This paper builds a conceptual model for the formation mechanism of commercial banks' innovative capability in our country, by emphasizing the six dimensions which contains external factors and internal factors respectively, systematically discusses the formation mechanism of the commercial banks' innovative capability, and employs dynamic panel model for empirical analysis, thus indicates the special formation mechanism which affects Chinese commercial banks' innovative capability. Meanwhile, it also tests and verifies the influence of commercial banks' innovative capability on banks' performance. Based on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, making a thorough investigation on the special background and underlying formation causes of commercial banks' innovative capability and discovering its formation mechanism all contribute to understanding the unique features of each phase in the development of China's banking industry. Thereby, the effective way to promote the innovative capability of banks can be found, and the successful transformation of the banking sector and the improvement of the overall performance can be achieved in the end.
     The dissertation is composed of the following seven chapters, of which Chapter Ⅰ is Introduction and Chapter7is Conclusion and Future Research Direction.
     Chapter2concentrates on the literature review of related topics. This chapter systematically reviews and combs through the related research literature about the innovative capability of commercial banks around the world, then proposes the defect of former studies and direction for further study.
     Chapter3emphasizes on the theoretical analysis of the formation mechanism of commercial banks' innovative capability. This chapter firstly defines the elements of commercial banks' innovative capability and evaluation indexes of the measurement; secondly, by respectively emphasizing on six dimensions which contains external factors and internal factors:the exogenous mechanism formed by the level of economic and financial development,"dividend effect" and the risk supervision of the banking sector, and the endogenous mechanism contained by resources invested in commercial banks, corporate governance and "soft power", the conceptual model for the formation mechanism of China's commercial banks' innovative capability are built. It also discusses in detail the formation mechanism of commercial banks' innovative capability, and provides the related hypothesis to test.
     Chapter4focuses on empirical analysis of the formation mechanism of commercial banks' innovative capability. This chapter tests and analyzes the quantified exogenous factors and endogenous factors in the formation mechanism of commercial banks' innovative capability. The empirical results verify the theoretical hypothesis on the one hand, and also obtain some instructive results on the other hand.
     Chapter5empirically analyzes the influence of commercial banks' innovative capability on bank performance. This chapter concentrates on investigating the relationship between commercial banks' innovative capability and bank performance under the conditions of risk management and control. Via the empirical analysis, the research finds a significantly positive relationship between commercial banks' innovative capability and bank performance, and also the influence of innovative capability on bank performance are not exactly the same as for different banks with different natures.
     Chapter6proposes the enhancement strategy and policy recommendations for commercial banks' innovative capability, based on the theoretical and empirical analysis.
     Through the aforementioned studies, the major conclusions of this paper are as follows:
     1. During the transformation process of the formation mechanism of China's commercial banks' innovative capability, the factors affecting this formation process are in many aspects, which can be divided into two categories:one is the exogenous mechanism contained by the level of economic and financial development,"dividend effect" and the risk supervision by banking sectors, and the other is the endogenous mechanism contained by resources invested in commercial banks, corporate governance and "soft power", the results of their joint effect form the formation mechanism of Chinese commercial banks'innovative capability for the current stage. Additionally, the formation of commercial banks' innovative capability is a dynamic process of development, and the characteristics of each stage in the evolution process are relatively obvious.
     2. The qualitative research aspects. Based on various industry-specific regulatory measures and indicators in Basel Ⅲ Agreement, commercial banks' innovative capability will inevitably be affected. The implementation of new supervision standards will strongly promote the development and transformation of the banking sector, especially under the constraint of capital regulations, which promotes the change of banks' business structure from high level of capital occupied to the low level, and forces banks to seek a variety of innovative methods to increase its profitability. Moreover, the synergistic effect of the strategic management model of commercial banks' innovative capability, excellent corporate culture, the motivation system for innovation, the bankers' charismatic leadership, and the process rccngincering of banks, indicates the "soft power" of commercial banks. Such "soft power" is also the important productive force for commercial banks, which can efficiently integrate all kinds of internal sources of banks, and promote the formation of commercial banks' innovative capability from various dimensions.
     3. The theoretical and empirical aspects. Firstly, during the process of institutional transformation of China's commercial banks, the high level of national saving rate makes commercial banks able to enjoy the demographic dividend in the reform process, and the long-term control of interest rate creates a rent opportunity to commercial banks. Such "dividend effect" leads to the banks' lack of motivation to innovate. Simultaneously, the negative relationship between China's currency rate and banks' innovative capability, and that between the financial structure indicators and banks' innovative capability reflect the investment-driven pattern of Chinese economic growth. The rapid economic growth and the large-scale credit lending are highly related. Furthermore, the extraordinary growth of the banking credit results from the additional issue of capital, and the one and only monetary bonus owned by commercial banks in monetization process can not improve banks' innovative capability. Therefore, it fails to promote the efficiency of the financial allocation of social resources and the deepening of finance.
     Secondly, the corporate governance of commercial banks plays a leading role in banks' operation, and good governance structure can enhance banks' efficiency in resource allocation and also boosts the innovative capability. The research finds that the reasonable equity structure can promote banks' innovative capability, as the negative effect of the largest shareholder due to the majority interest is obviously more than the positive effect of promotion of innovation brought by him. The appropriate dispersed ownership, via the active participation in governance by other shareholders can increase banks' innovative capability. The existence of the state implicit guarantee causes the state-owned banks to invest more resource in innovation, as well as bears more innovative risk. As the core of bank governance, there are a large number of the board of directors of banks in China, which increases the cost of cooperation and coordination, reduces the decision-making efficiency, and does not motivate the further innovative capability. What is worse, the effect of the system of independent directors and board of supervisors, and its independence do not fully give full play to its role. In contrast, the rational salary incentive system for executives can improve commercial banks' innovative capability evidently.
     Finally, banks' investment of resources is the foundation of innovative capability. The study finds that, the scope effect of the application for commercial banks' innovative development provides a strong support for marketing competition of the multi-product banking. The expansion of economies of scale is largely realized by setting up more branches, but the expansion of such a scale can not improve the innovative capability effectively. Using technical applications can effectively reduce banks' operating cost, so as to promote the transformation of operating structure and the change of development methods. Therefore, electronic banking automatically becomes the trend of banks'future development. At the current stage, the market share of commercial bank industry is mainly indicated by the size of deposits and loans, the key source of profitability for banks comes from the dividend policy, but which can not effectively improve banks' innovative capability. Additionally, human capital and the compensation bonus for bank employees are positively related to the innovative capability, which shows the core role of talented people in promoting banks' innovative capability.
     4. Commercial banks' innovative capability has a significantly positive effect on banks' performance, so that banks are able to enhance their operating performance by improving innovative capability. Also, it is found that, the innovative capability of joint-equity and city commercial banks and state-owned commercial banks all positively affect banks' performance, but the degree of such effect are quite different for different banks. The enhancement of innovative capability is more important for joint-equity and city commercial banks to improve its performance.
     Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the formation mechanism of commercial banks' innovative capability, we find the unique and underlying formation causes. Accordingly, proposing more targeted policy recommendations can improve the overall innovative capability in the banking sector by many aspects such as implementing the market interest rate pricing mechanism and the connotative development of capital intensive, optimizing the bank's endogenous resources investment, constructing the governance mechanisms which are conductive to innovation, and strengthening the construction of banks' soft power, which are the only ways for China's banking industry to achieve the transformation of its development model.
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