国际石油价格波动对中国经济的影响：理论、机制与对策
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摘要
石油是具有商品、金融和政治三重属性的特殊商品，这决定了其价格形成机制及波动原理的复杂性。从石油的属性出发寻求国际石油价格波动的理论依据，是国际石油价格波动理论分析的一条新路径。商品属性是石油最基本的属性，可耗竭资源模型、供需模型和市场结构模型都基于石油市场供给与需求的差异对石油价格波动进行的分析。金融属性是石油经济现代化发展的重要特性，基于不同的石油金融工具，分别以期货市场理论、石油美元理论和美元汇率控制理论对石油价格波动进行解释。石油的政治属性表现为国家、利益集团之间对石油资源的争夺和控制，这个博弈过程引起的石油价格波动可以通过政治影响论、战争威胁论来解释。从石油经济发展的历史和现状来看，政治是控制石油价格手段，金融是影响石油价格的工具，商品属性是决定石油价格的本质。
从总供给和总需求两个方面对国际石油价格波动对宏观经济的影响进行分析，其理论路径比较清晰。在总供给方面，国际油价波动主要从原材料价格、工资等方面影响生产成本，表现为供给冲击效应。在总需求方面，国际石油价格波动对消费需求和投资需求产生的影响，表现为市场配置效应；对出口需求和国际收支产生的影响，表现为收入转移效应。同时，国际油价波动会影响货币政策的调整，从利率、汇率两个渠道影响宏观经济运行，归结为货币渠道理论。
本论文采用2003年1月到2012年7月的数据，运用单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、VAR模型和误差修正模型等方法，验证了国内外石油价格的关联性，以及国际石油价格与我国物价指数、进出口贸易额、城镇登记失业率、GDP等宏观经济指标的关联性。国内石油价格与国际石油价格存在长期的均衡关系，国际原油期货价格波动对国内原油价格的影响要强于国际石油现货价格的影响，其中Brent原油价格对国内油价的短期影响要大于WTI原油。国际原油价格与我国物价指数、进出口贸易额、城镇登记失业率、GDP的关联性都很强，存在长期的均衡关系。国际原油价格对我国物价指数、城镇登记失业率的单向因果关系比较明显，而对我国进、出口贸易额和GDP的因果关系在一定程度上呈对称性。
作为重要的生产要素，石油的价格波动通过原材料价格、工资等生产成本的变化影响总供给和价格总水平，这种总量传导机制通过国内、国际市场两种路径影响我国宏观经济。在总需求方面，价格总体水平变化对消费需求和投资需求产生的影响会引发市场机制和政府调控机制重新配置经济资源，即为配置传导机制。国际石油价格波动引发货币政策调整，通过利率和汇率渠道对宏观经济产生影响。其中利率的调整影响投资需求和消费需求两个方面，汇率的调整通过国际贸易和金融体系影响宏观经济。
我国能源发展存在着资源约束加剧、能源效率明显偏低、体制机制矛盾突出等问题，面临着国际能源资源竞争加剧、核电和新能源发展受阻、世界源格局调整、美国战略调整等挑战。我们需要着眼于国民经济的长远发展，按照党的十八大建设生态文明的要求，统筹国内和国际两个大局，着力从增强能源保障内生动力、提高能源利用效率、建设能源战略储备体系、完善能源金融体系、加强国际能源合作、实施海洋强国战略等方面，思考我国能源发展战略。
Oil is special product，it has the commodity, financial and political triple properties，which determine the complexity of its pricing mechanism and fluctuation principle. It is anew path for the theoretical analysis of the international oil price fluctuations, that seeking tothe theoretical basis of the international oil price fluctuations from the properties of the oil.Commodity attribute is the basic characteristic of oil, the exhaustible resource model, demand-supply model and market structure model are analyses of oil price fluctuation based on theoil market supply and demand. Financial attribute is an important characteristic of oileconomy modernizing, based on different petroleum-financial instruments, the theories offutures markets, petrodollars and dollar exchange rate control can explain oil price fluctuation.The political attribute of the oil is expressed as the competition and control over oil resourcesbetween the countries, interest groups. In this game, political influence and the threat of warcan cause the oil price fluctuations. According to the history and the present condition of oileconomy development, politics control oil price, finance impact on oil price as a tool, and thecommodity attribute determine oil price in essence.
It is a clear theoretical path to analyze the macro-economic impact of international oilprice fluctuations from the total supply and total demand. In total supply, international oilprice fluctuation has an impact on production cost, and show the effect of supply shocks. Intotal demand side, international oil price fluctuation influence the consumption demand andinvestment demand, show the effect of market allocation. And it influence on export demand,as an effect of income transfer. Meanwhile, international oil price fluctuation will affect themonetary policy, attributed to the monetary channel theory.
Based on the data from January2003to July2012, the ADF unit root test, Co integrationtest, Granger causality test, VAR Model and Error Correction Model, the paper research therelevance of the domestic and international oil prices, as well as the correlation ofinternational oil price and the China’s price index, valume of import and export, registered urban unemployment rate, GDP. The results show that there is a long-term equilibriumrelationship between domestic and international crude oil spot prices or futures prices, theinfluences of the international crude oil futures prices fluctuations on domestic crude oilprices is stronger than it of spot price, and the influences of the Brent crude oil prices ondomestic crude oil prices is greater than WTI crude oil price. There are long-term equilibriumrelationships of international oil price and the China’s price index, valume of import andexport registered, urban unemployment rate, GDP. There are obvious one-way causal relationsof international crude oil prices with China’s, price index and the registered urbanunemployment rate. There are very obvious causal relations of international crude oil priceswith China's valume of import and export, GDP, and they are presence of symmetry.
As important factor of production, the oil price fluctuations affect the total supply andthe general price level through changes in raw material prices, wages and other productioncosts. The total conduction mechanism affect macroeconomic through the domestic andinternational market. In terms of the total demand, the impact of changes in the general pricelevel of consumer demand and investment demand lead to the market mechanism andgovernment regulation mechanism re-allocation of economic resources, which is theallocation conduction mechanism. The international oil price fluctuations trigger theadjustment of monetary policy to impact on macroeconomic through the interest rate channeland exchange rate channel. Adjustment of interest rate affects the demand of investment andconsumption, and the adjustment of the exchange rate impact on macroeconomic throughforeign trade and financial system.
A lot of outstanding problems exist in development of China's energy, including resourceconstraints exacerbated, lower energy efficiency, and the contradiction in systems andmechanisms. Meanwhile the development of China's energy face severe challenges asintensified competition in the international energy resources, the development of nuclearpower and new energy blocked, adjustment on the global energy pattern and the U.S. strategicadjustment. We need focus on the long-term development of the national economy, andearnestly implements various strategic plans developed at the18th CPC National Congress, overall situations of domestic and international, rethink China's energy development strategy,effort to increase the endogenous dynamic of the energy security, improve energy efficiency,construct energy strategic reserve system and energy financial system, strengthen theinternational energy cooperation, and implement the strategy of marine economic powerfulnation.
从总供给和总需求两个方面对国际石油价格波动对宏观经济的影响进行分析，其理论路径比较清晰。在总供给方面，国际油价波动主要从原材料价格、工资等方面影响生产成本，表现为供给冲击效应。在总需求方面，国际石油价格波动对消费需求和投资需求产生的影响，表现为市场配置效应；对出口需求和国际收支产生的影响，表现为收入转移效应。同时，国际油价波动会影响货币政策的调整，从利率、汇率两个渠道影响宏观经济运行，归结为货币渠道理论。
本论文采用2003年1月到2012年7月的数据，运用单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、VAR模型和误差修正模型等方法，验证了国内外石油价格的关联性，以及国际石油价格与我国物价指数、进出口贸易额、城镇登记失业率、GDP等宏观经济指标的关联性。国内石油价格与国际石油价格存在长期的均衡关系，国际原油期货价格波动对国内原油价格的影响要强于国际石油现货价格的影响，其中Brent原油价格对国内油价的短期影响要大于WTI原油。国际原油价格与我国物价指数、进出口贸易额、城镇登记失业率、GDP的关联性都很强，存在长期的均衡关系。国际原油价格对我国物价指数、城镇登记失业率的单向因果关系比较明显，而对我国进、出口贸易额和GDP的因果关系在一定程度上呈对称性。
作为重要的生产要素，石油的价格波动通过原材料价格、工资等生产成本的变化影响总供给和价格总水平，这种总量传导机制通过国内、国际市场两种路径影响我国宏观经济。在总需求方面，价格总体水平变化对消费需求和投资需求产生的影响会引发市场机制和政府调控机制重新配置经济资源，即为配置传导机制。国际石油价格波动引发货币政策调整，通过利率和汇率渠道对宏观经济产生影响。其中利率的调整影响投资需求和消费需求两个方面，汇率的调整通过国际贸易和金融体系影响宏观经济。
我国能源发展存在着资源约束加剧、能源效率明显偏低、体制机制矛盾突出等问题，面临着国际能源资源竞争加剧、核电和新能源发展受阻、世界源格局调整、美国战略调整等挑战。我们需要着眼于国民经济的长远发展，按照党的十八大建设生态文明的要求，统筹国内和国际两个大局，着力从增强能源保障内生动力、提高能源利用效率、建设能源战略储备体系、完善能源金融体系、加强国际能源合作、实施海洋强国战略等方面，思考我国能源发展战略。
Oil is special product，it has the commodity, financial and political triple properties，which determine the complexity of its pricing mechanism and fluctuation principle. It is anew path for the theoretical analysis of the international oil price fluctuations, that seeking tothe theoretical basis of the international oil price fluctuations from the properties of the oil.Commodity attribute is the basic characteristic of oil, the exhaustible resource model, demand-supply model and market structure model are analyses of oil price fluctuation based on theoil market supply and demand. Financial attribute is an important characteristic of oileconomy modernizing, based on different petroleum-financial instruments, the theories offutures markets, petrodollars and dollar exchange rate control can explain oil price fluctuation.The political attribute of the oil is expressed as the competition and control over oil resourcesbetween the countries, interest groups. In this game, political influence and the threat of warcan cause the oil price fluctuations. According to the history and the present condition of oileconomy development, politics control oil price, finance impact on oil price as a tool, and thecommodity attribute determine oil price in essence.
It is a clear theoretical path to analyze the macro-economic impact of international oilprice fluctuations from the total supply and total demand. In total supply, international oilprice fluctuation has an impact on production cost, and show the effect of supply shocks. Intotal demand side, international oil price fluctuation influence the consumption demand andinvestment demand, show the effect of market allocation. And it influence on export demand,as an effect of income transfer. Meanwhile, international oil price fluctuation will affect themonetary policy, attributed to the monetary channel theory.
Based on the data from January2003to July2012, the ADF unit root test, Co integrationtest, Granger causality test, VAR Model and Error Correction Model, the paper research therelevance of the domestic and international oil prices, as well as the correlation ofinternational oil price and the China’s price index, valume of import and export, registered urban unemployment rate, GDP. The results show that there is a long-term equilibriumrelationship between domestic and international crude oil spot prices or futures prices, theinfluences of the international crude oil futures prices fluctuations on domestic crude oilprices is stronger than it of spot price, and the influences of the Brent crude oil prices ondomestic crude oil prices is greater than WTI crude oil price. There are long-term equilibriumrelationships of international oil price and the China’s price index, valume of import andexport registered, urban unemployment rate, GDP. There are obvious one-way causal relationsof international crude oil prices with China’s, price index and the registered urbanunemployment rate. There are very obvious causal relations of international crude oil priceswith China's valume of import and export, GDP, and they are presence of symmetry.
As important factor of production, the oil price fluctuations affect the total supply andthe general price level through changes in raw material prices, wages and other productioncosts. The total conduction mechanism affect macroeconomic through the domestic andinternational market. In terms of the total demand, the impact of changes in the general pricelevel of consumer demand and investment demand lead to the market mechanism andgovernment regulation mechanism re-allocation of economic resources, which is theallocation conduction mechanism. The international oil price fluctuations trigger theadjustment of monetary policy to impact on macroeconomic through the interest rate channeland exchange rate channel. Adjustment of interest rate affects the demand of investment andconsumption, and the adjustment of the exchange rate impact on macroeconomic throughforeign trade and financial system.
A lot of outstanding problems exist in development of China's energy, including resourceconstraints exacerbated, lower energy efficiency, and the contradiction in systems andmechanisms. Meanwhile the development of China's energy face severe challenges asintensified competition in the international energy resources, the development of nuclearpower and new energy blocked, adjustment on the global energy pattern and the U.S. strategicadjustment. We need focus on the long-term development of the national economy, andearnestly implements various strategic plans developed at the18th CPC National Congress, overall situations of domestic and international, rethink China's energy development strategy,effort to increase the endogenous dynamic of the energy security, improve energy efficiency,construct energy strategic reserve system and energy financial system, strengthen theinternational energy cooperation, and implement the strategy of marine economic powerfulnation.
引文
③黄烨：《原油依存度十年提高9倍》，2013年2月5日《中国能源报》第2版。
①朱剑红：《油价今后10个工作日一调》，2013年3月27日《人民日报》第3版。
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①朱剑红：《油价今后10个工作日一调》，2013年3月27日《人民日报》第3版。
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